TheLoneBettor

Kempton 12.45 Live Stream Win  9/2 PP

Here are some Royal Ascot stats I researched on HRB.
Trainers who have had at least 20 runners since 2017 (Last 3 meetings)

First thing that stands out is that the Winning Strike Rates are pretty poor.
Looking at the Trainer with the highest Strike Rate gives a different picture entirely.

Sir Michael Stoute with 15% and an ROI of 29.37% at (BSP) looks like the best Trainer to follow at Royal Ascot, bearing in mind he didn't have a winner in 2017. In the Place Betting Market he has a massive 47.5% with an ROI of 61.43% at (BSP).
Lets have a look at his overall performances below.

He seems to have a consistent amount of runners each year. His Place Strike Rate is the stand out one for me. 2018 was a good year so I'm guessing the market caught up with him last year but overall in my opinion he is the one to watch in the Place Betting Market.
I'll be doing some more research today so if I find anything of interest I will post it here later.
Carrying on with Sir Michael Stoute I have done some fine tuning by putting in the Odds Forecast which eliminated 7 of his bets which were either too short a price to be worth a place (Did not show a profit*) and horses above 15*.

As you can see the Place Strike Rate, P/L and ROI are all up after removing the short and long priced runners.

His long term stats have also improved. This will be my betting angle for Royal Ascot next week. I just hope the prices are worth it.
 
 

The value bet to me looks earth but I'd give a complete swerve lol .....9/2 is tissue and your offering 5/1 ....

Okay, the above two bets were cancelled at-in-play because they did not meet the maximum odds of 1.99
I have now further developed more lay systems on HorseRaceBase and it's time for me to get on with it. I have changed my mind a few times on the staking plan but I have finally come up with this one. I don't know if you have heard of the Ratchet Plan or not but it's what I will be using.
Basically you start with a Bank, for this example we will use my initial Bank of £500, and that Bank is split in to units. My units will be 25 x £20  The Bank will always be 25 units so if you win, lets say £100 profit in a couple of weeks, your Bank is now £600 so your stakes now are 25 x £24 and will always stay at this until you exceed your Bank again. So if you are successful your stakes will keep rising steadily. If I am successful I will be moving my stakes up in £1 units so if my Bank makes a profit of £25 (£525) then my next stake will be £21 and so on.
Now because this system works around the 50% Strike Rate area, and I have back-tested these systems, the longest losing runs I came across were between 6 and 8. However the winning runs were about the same as well. Some of the winners have been in the low 1.20's, 1.30's and so on so that's where the profit comes from as the stakes are a fixed liability. For example a £20 lay on a 1.20 shot, and your lay wins, you win £100 minus Betfair Commission. I will be including commission in my bets. I will also prove I am betting by posting snap shots of every bet and I also will be recording them into a spreadsheet. And from time to time I will take snapshots of the spreadsheet.
I might have a qualifier at Naas tomorrow so until then.
 
 

I'm a huge fan of value bets as well, Richard. I believe you have a sensible approach to it and you certainly have the bank for it.
I believe in the long run value bets have an advantage if you choose them correctly because bookmakers are human as well (c'est la vie) and they do make mistakes.
I wish you well with your system.

Morning Everyone
It has taken me 4 weeks to even come and visit the site, as many of you know and many do not, I have known Paul some 30 years and in that time got to know a man who was selective about the people he chose to be in his life, he loved his punters lounge guys and girls and the numerous poker nights and race days he took great joy and pride in to know he created that, I was more a friend away from this site because truth be told gambling is not my thing as @StevieDay1983 will tell you with my horrendous premier league tips, I am actually very proud of what Paul achieved here and have told him that several times, you all should be proud to because you have help this great creation, on a more personal note I will miss my friend no no my brother, i loved the way he would tell it to me straight if I was being a d**k, also loved the way I could tell him that also, I have spent many a night in the pub (that will surprise you all  watching mostly football and for a Leeds lad he backed me up whenever I was watching Manchester United in mainly Arsenal pubs in London, away from pubs we would often discuss matters of life always with a sarcastic sense of humour attached to it, I was with Paul a lot over the last months and I would like you all to know that genuinely he did not lose that sarcastic sense of humour he was known for, one of lifes very very good guys, I love ya Paul 

Lingfield 17.35 Caspian Queen E/W 20/1 @bet365

13:15 Newmarket, Pure Beauty @ 5 at Bet365

Newm 3.35 - Ghaiyyath - win at 11/8 bet365

2.40 Ling MISS YODA @ 11/8 B365

Newmarket 3.35
Ghaiyyath
Bet365    6/4

Is it just me or does anyone else think the above statement is a bit over the top.
Is there really going to be thousands of 'new' viewers to horse racing??
I just dont see it personally, in the North West people are going about there usual lives for the most part. We have 5 hour queues at Ikea in Warrington, roads are grid-locked around the beaches here and now McDonalds have opened and people queued up for 2 hours yesterday for a burger, oh and dont forget the 2hr queue at the local tip which brings the main road to a halt.
Add the supermarket queue's and it doesn't leave much time to watch a few races on ITV 4, thats if any 'new viewer' actually knows racing is on and how to find it.
 

New viewers will be switching off as soon as Matt Chapman opens his big mouth.

No worries. My nap today is  non runner so I will be changing it.

A few snippets for today
First Run after a wind op

First run in headgear

A better day than yesterday. 3/7 - 42.86% Strike Rate - ROI 112.97%  - 7.9 points up.
Even though I've had a good day I got annoyed with Enemy [email protected] - Traded as low as 1.06 on Betfair. I seem to have bad luck with odds on shots. Feels like a wasted point but however, still happy.

2.30 Yarmouth  GINGER MAX
11/2 Coral BOG

3.05 Yarmouth: Mister Snowdon 0.5pts e/w @ 7.00 with bet365. Thank you. 

12.45 Yarmouth
Celestran

1245 Yarmouth 
Celestran 3/1 bet365
 
 
 

With the kind permission of Paul's sister Kayla we have named the KO Cup in memory of 'Sir Puntalot'
Without his drive and enthusiasm over the years the forum would not exist.
Good luck guys and gals
 

 
Rules for those who have forgot!
Top 25 finishers from the NAPS Final table will qualify, minimum required bets will be needed which is 15 All players will play in Qualifying Round and top 8 scorers go forward to next round. Pairings seeded from finishing position after qualifying, 1v8, 2v7 and so on. Matches will be played on each of the Saturdays of that month. 3 Selections required each round, plus reserves if you desire. 1pt Win or 0.50pt EW can be selected, if no stake included a win bet will be awarded. Player with most profit will go forward to the next round, if a tie, a playoff will be played on the following day. From the 2nd Round onwards we operate a First come first served basis, player can not have the same selection as his opponent in his 3 main picks, if this happens it will be regarded as a loser, reserves will not be used in this case. The deadline for bets to be posted is 2pm All 3 selections must be posted at the same time in one post, no 10 minute ruling but before the 2pm deadline. Once in the head to head stages Selections can not be changed once your opponent has posted. Multiple horses from the same race is allowed. Reserves can be added in case of NR's but not if you or your opponents bet has started, so it makes sense to post the reserves in the original post. Horses can be posted after the deadline if a meeting is abandoned for any reason which includes selections. Prices can be taken as per the NAPS Table rules. Winner of the Cup will win £30 via PayPal account. Runner Up will win £10 via PayPal account.

2/2 that's me done for the day!
 

135 Kempton
Olympic Conquerer

Newcastle 13.35 Little Jo E/W
 

2 out of 4 today. Just over 1pt up and a 25.2% ROI. Wow, did you see Frankly Darling's Win!! Reminded me a bit of my favourite horse, Frankel.