Racing Chat - Tuesday 2nd June

[Darran]

No jumps racing in the UK for another month, but we have 5 more jumps race in Australia at Warrnambool in the early hours of the morning. 

Race 1 (2.20am)

This is a winner of 1 jumps race handicap although none of these have won over fences so it is essentially a maiden chase handicap. My King's Counsel is the favourite at the time of writing and I do think he is the one to beat. I really like the way he trailed here last week on a Heavy 10 surface and the ground is a Heavy 9 at the moment. He was a fair 3rd in a maiden hurdle here at the May Carnival and there is every chance he will improve for going over the larger obstacles. 

In that trial Harvard and Mr Coyne also took part. Harvard was given a quiet ride out the back for most of the way and no doubt he will take much closer order here. He was a solid 4th behind Inayforhay at the May Carnival and has had a flat run since to keep him ticking over. Mr Coyne didn't jump well in the trial and he has a bit too find for me.

Markwood has run in 3 chases this prep and he's run well in all 3, but he hasn't really been seeing out his races. He faded to finish 5th at Pakenham and did the same at the May Carnival when 3rd to Georgethefifth. I put him up last time at Sale, but Tremec was getting the better of him when he fell at the last and it was a tired fall as well. He goes on too a more testing surface here and as much as he should run his race again the way he has been finishing his races is a big concern for me.

Elvison ran OK in the Champion Novice Hurdle at the May Carnival when 4th and was behind Markwood in a trial over fences at the end of April. He's not out of this although not for me.

The last horse I want to give a mention to is the outsider Fulmineus. It is so frustrating we are down to 7 runners because we only have 2 places now, but he is over priced for me and has to be backed. I know he has had 8 goes over fences and the best he has managed is a 3rd, but connections have been mainly running him in open class company. Last August he ran a really good race to finish 4th in the Crisp Chase at Sandown only beaten 6L. Back In March he was 5th in a race won by Ablaze and Bit Of A Lad was 2nd so that was another good run after making the running. Last time he ran in the Grand Annual and he had no chance in that race especially as he was highly unlikely to stay. This is arguably the weakest race he has been in over fences and he should strip fitter here. I think he is worth having a bit e/w on him at 33/1 as it is way too big. The main bet though is My King's Counsel on the back of the good trial and the 3rd here over hurdles.

My King's Counsel @ 15/8 with Betfred

Fulmineus e/w @ 33/1 with Betfred (is available at 9/1 to place with Bet365)

Race 2 (3am)

I really fancied Felix Bay in this, but annoyingly he has come out. Georgethefifth is the favourite and he was impressive here on his debut over fences in Australia. He beat Speedy Jax who re-opposes here. The concern for me is the fact he folded very tamely at Sandown just over a week ago and was pulled up just before the last. Maybe the trip was too far in the testing ground and this is an easier race, but he looks tight enough in the betting for me.

Speedy Jax didn't get a clear run in that race here as he was baulked just before the last when he was trying to make his move. I don't think he would have won, but he would have finished closer than the 8L margin and he has to carry 2.5kg less than he did that day so that gives him a real chance of reversing the form. He had a run on the flat last week to keep him ticking over.

I'll'ava'alf showed good chasing form in 2018 and was only seen 3 times last year which suggests something was up with him. He seems to be working his way back to form and was beaten less than 2L in 3rd in the Brierly Chase over course and distance last time. He had beaten Georgethefifth in a trial the week before that effort and I thought the Brierly run suggested he was close to a win again. 

Undergroundfighter is worth a quick mention as he ran well at big odds last week in the Australian Steeplechase when he had Tremec and Georgethefifth in behind. He has only won 3 times in 78 starts though so would be no guarantee to back that up. Tremec was 4th in the race Georgethefifth won here and then won a maiden chase at Sale before the 4th at Sandown. He should run his race again.

I am happy to take the favourite on and am just going to side with I'll'ava'alf. That run in the Brierly was good and in a lesser race hopefully he can get his head back in front. I was close to putting up Speedy Jax and he looks the main danger.

I'll'ava'alf @ 9/4 with Betfred

Race 3 (3.40am)

5 runners but only 3 that have a serious chance. Longclaw is currently the favourite although there isn't a great deal between the 3 of them in the market. Longclaw won on his hurdles debut at Sale last time although he didn't look like he would win until late on when he eventually got up to take the spoils. I'm not sure the form is all that strong though as the 2nd has had quite a few chances now. He should improve for the run though you would have thought.

Scholarly was an easy winner on his 2nd hurdles start over course and distance at the May Carnival having jumped better than he did first up. Last time at Sale he was leading fairly comfortably until Mystic Prince put the pressure on down the back and it meant he got racing too soon. The winner did it nicely but having done that work he had nothing left in the finish. Every chance he will get an easy lead here which is a plus, but the concern for me is he trialled terribly here last week over fences. Fair to say he didn't like them much and I just wonder what that experience will have done to his confidence.

Inayforhay pretty much came from last to 1st to win another division of the maiden hurdle at the May Carnival. He beat Britannicus who runs in a later race on the card and I thought he did it well. He had also beaten Scholarly in a trail here the week before that race. He impressed me in the trial and there looked to be plenty more to come based on his win as well. Should be a good race between the 3 of them, but Inayforhay is the pick.

Inayforhay @ 7/4 with Betfred

Race 4 (4.20am)

The 1st division of the maiden hurdle has some very tight betting at the moment. There are 10 runners, but we have 3 no hopers and the other 7 are priced up between 3/1 and 9/1 as I write this.

Bakery Hill had to come from a long way back on his hurdles debut to finish 2nd to Scholarly at the May Carnival. By the time he got himself going the winner had already flown. He's had a run on the flat since to keep him ticking over, but I thought he looked hard work on his hurdles debut so I am passing him over here.

Chenners has solid efforts to his name and I have put him up e/w the last twice after his 2nd at Pakenham. He duly finished 4th on both occasions and he has now had 10 hurdle starts for 1 2nd and 2 3rd. He just looks a bit one paced so I am going to leave him alone here.

Clifford Snowflake is making his hurdles debut and is solid on the flat at a BM58 level. Fair trial last time, but probably has a bit too find.

Coleridge has had 8 hurdle starts for 2 2nds and a 3rd. Looked the winner at Sale until Longclaw grabbed him late on. That was much better than his last two hurdle runs here and at Pakenham and has a chance here.

Savvy Ken did a really good trial last month when he really impressed me in his jumping ability. He was 6L in front of Hokkaido Miss there and he I think he will finish in front of her again here. He also finished in front of the very good Flying Agent in a trial a couple of months ago although he was disqualified for some reason which I can't find the reason for. He has the best flat form in the race and he is the one to beat for me.

Steam Roller was a good 3rd on his first hurdle start behind Inayforhey and he followed that up with a good 3rd on the flat at Hamilton last week. He is clearly in good form at the moment. Bakery Hill did beat him on the flat in April, but only by 0.2L and he was getting 1.5kg there and they race of levels in this contest.

Going to take a couple against the field here with one hurdling newcomer in Savvy Ken and one with hurdling experience Steam Roller. Coleridge would be my main danger.

Savvy Ken @ 3/1 with Bet365

Steam Roller @ 6/1 with Betfair and Betfred

R5 (5am)

Half of the 10 runner field make some sort of appeal here. Britannicus was the horse who Inayforhay beat over course and distance so that was obviously a very good effort. Since then he has won over 3600m on the flat at Stawell so he has kept up his good form and he looks to have a superb chance here.

San Remo is just behind him in the betting and his last start was also at the May Carnival, but it was on the Flat in a BM78 where he finished a solid 6th not beating far. He makes his hurdles debut after running in trials either side of that flat run. He was actually just in front of Britannicus in the first of them, but he did have a big lead for a long way. Does have an obvious chance though.

Hierarchal is the only other one in single figures and he made So Belatonte pull out all the stops here last month and he was 12L in front of Crafty Lion on that occasion. Was his best hurdles run of the 3 and he's getting fitter by the looks of it.

Speaking of Crafty Lion I put him up at big odds at Sale and he finished a solid 3rd to Longclaw. That was his best effort over hurdles and he is clearly getting better. He has solid e/w claims again for me.

Valhalla Princess has had more hurdle starts than some of these, but she has finished placed in half of them. Was 2nd at Terang in Match although not as good in two runs since finishing 5th of 8 over course and distance both times. What I will say is the first of them came a week after Terang and then he had 6 weeks off before the run behind Inayforhay. She came from a long way back on both occacsions and although she has 11L to make up on Britannicus it would surprise me if she was capable of going close now she is fitter. She has also had a flat run at Geelong since. I like the jockey booking as well.

I think Britannicus has the best chance of those in single figures, but I think there are reasons to think that Crafty Lion and Valhalla Princess can both improve again on their runs at at double figure odds I will take the pair of them e/w.

Crafty Lion e/w @ 12/1 with Betfred

Valhalla Princess e/w @ 14/1 with Betfred

[BillyHills]

Kempton and Newcastle continues the UK comeback.

Kempton:

245 Science 2/1 bet365
320 Cold Front 11/10 bet365
430 Galsworthy 11/10 bet365 NAP
540 Rocketeer 9/2 bet365

Newcastle

120: Firmament EW 9/1 bet365
450: Pelekai 3/1 bet365
525: Unit Of Assessment EW 11/1 bet365

 

[TheLoneBettor]

Kempton     13.00   Viza                            Place

Kempton     14.45   Science                      Win

Newcastle   15.40   Internationaldream    Win

Kempton     15.55   Paxos                        Place (NAP)    

All at Betfair Starting Prices.        

Edited June 1, 2020 by TheLoneBettor
Added a NAP

[PunterPhil]

OMG so many maidens

My advice is to put a line through those races and concentrate on the handicappers!

[richard-westwood]

A few tricky races on offer but I'll have a play 

 

210 Kemp  charming kid  8/1 willh 3pt ew 

120 Newcastle so beloved 20/1 bet365 3pt ew 

155 Newcastle  Jean baptiste  5/1 bet365 5pt win 

230 Newcastle  glen shiel 15/2 

                             Cosmic law 8/1 

                 2x 5pt wins 

 

 

[black rabbit]

True Mason    2 30 new      1/2 pt win   @  13.5  betfair   

 

 

P/L  Account  + 129  pts

[Valiant Thor]

B365
1.50pts ew PATENT *
Kemp
2.10 AMPLIFY @ 7/1
Toon
1.55 AYR HARBOUR @ 11/1
5.25 SWIFT WING @ 10/1

21pts staked

 

Edited June 2, 2020 by Valiant Thor
* forgot to put ew

[Nigwilliam]

EW's  @ Kemp

320  Captivated 12/1. Unpl.     540. Trigger Happy. 22/1 Unpl.

EW's  @ Newc.

1245. Hillwalker  20/1. Unpl.    155. Borsdane Wood. 16/1. Unpl.

Fort Erie

812. Pachamama 2/1. 1st.    908. Snell Flicka  14/1  2nd

Lone Star

943. Poco Suenos. 3/1. Unpl.

 

 

Edited June 2, 2020 by Nigwilliam
Result

[Ryanpete]

1.35 k. Lexington law 5/1

2.10 k. Grandfather Tom 7/2 

2.45 k. Golden bear 10/1 

5.05 k. Teaser 13/2  

 

All 365 good luck chaps

[PunterPhil]

Here are today's selections. I'll be keeping an eye on the market and won't bet any that drift over 6.0.

1:35K: Olympic Conqueror

2:10K: Grandfather Tom

2:30N: Mubakker

Detailed analysis on my blog for those interested:

https://propunter.co.uk/2020/06/02/horse-racing-tips-for-newcastle-and-kempton-june-2nd/
 

Best of luck! 

[The Equaliser]

Hi Guys,

Great to be back after a lay off

I have decided to resume my operation with "LAY" betting.

The hope is that I should have lots of wining bets and hopefully be profitable

I am not going to use a betting bank as this has caused confusion in the past.

I am very much feeling my way with this new project so a softly softly approach is being employed

My first bet is the 12.45 Newc Jackstar.  £5.26 at odds of 7.8 = possible £5 profit versus a liability of £35.77

The horse is fancied, however it hasn't won over this distance before so fingers crossed

 

 

 

 

 

[PunterPhil]

2/2 that's me done for the day!

 

[TheLoneBettor]

22 hours ago, TheLoneBettor said:

Kempton     13.00   Viza                            Place

Kempton     14.45   Science                      Win

Newcastle   15.40   Internationaldream    Win

Kempton     15.55   Paxos                        Place (NAP)    

All at Betfair Starting Prices.        

Dreadful day. 0% Strike Rate - 4 points down.

[LEE-GRAYS]

Hi there good night 40/1 18/1 20/1hope tonight same 

lone star

race1 lucky promise 16/1

race 2 youvesaiditall 20/1

race 3 mr fearless 50/1

race 4 gravely 8/1

race 5 emerald lady 25/1

race 6 Marcus gray girl 8/1

race 7 musical mille 16/1

race 8 post close 33/1

race 9 rasslin 50/1

all bets 25p e/w bet365 

75 races +£25.93

[Valiant Thor]

18 hours ago, Valiant Thor said:

B365
1.50pts ew PATENT *
Kemp
2.10 AMPLIFY @ 7/1
Toon
1.55 AYR HARBOUR @ 11/1
5.25 SWIFT WING @ 10/1

21pts staked

 

1.55 AYR HARBOUR @ 11/1..... placed 2nd ? (R4 10p)
2.10 AMPLIFY @ 7/1...................?
5.25 SWIFT WING @ 10/1...........placed 2nd ? @ 14/1

staked 21
Returned 27.16

Edited June 2, 2020 by Valiant Thor

[LEE-GRAYS]

2 hours ago, LEE-GRAYS said:

Hi there good night 40/1 18/1 20/1hope tonight same 

lone star

race1 lucky promise 16/1

race 2 youvesaiditall 20/1

race 3 mr fearless 50/1

race 4 gravely 8/1

race 5 emerald lady 25/1

race 6 Marcus gray girl 8/1

race 7 musical mille 16/1

race 8 post close 33/1

race 9 rasslin 50/1

all bets 25p e/w bet365 

75 races +£25.93

nice start 16/1 ended up 11/2 glad took price

[LEE-GRAYS]

4 hours ago, LEE-GRAYS said:

nice start 16/1 ended up 11/2 glad took price

Not bad night 1 winner race 1 ,16/1 decent places 

laid out £4.50

back £7.90. +£3.40

after 84 races +£29.33 ?