TheLoneBettor Posted June 6, 2020 Share Posted June 6, 2020 (edited) This is a system I developed on HorseRaceBase where I looked for horses who were Odds-On in the Place Market, all at Betfair Starting Price. To make sure I get matched (if it looks like the horse is fluctuating around the Evens mark) I have set an SP Odds Limit to a maximum of 1.99 - All stakes are fixed at £10.00 My 1st selection is 'Pour Me A Drink' in the 18.15 at Newcastle. Edited June 7, 2020 by TheLoneBettor Removed Link Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheLoneBettor Posted June 6, 2020 Author Share Posted June 6, 2020 (edited) Just finished watching the above race. There was no bet as it drifted in the place market out to about 3.00 After my days other bets the horses name rings true. Just out of interest it did not place. Edited June 7, 2020 by TheLoneBettor Results Update Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheLoneBettor Posted June 7, 2020 Author Share Posted June 7, 2020 (edited) Possibly a bet on today in the 17.45 Lingfield. It is hovering around the 2.00 mark. No bet. It drifted to BSP 2.50 And again just out of interest, it did not place. But that is the criteria I set. It must be 1.99 or less. Edited June 7, 2020 by TheLoneBettor Updating bet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheLoneBettor Posted June 7, 2020 Author Share Posted June 7, 2020 Okay, the above two bets were cancelled at-in-play because they did not meet the maximum odds of 1.99 I have now further developed more lay systems on HorseRaceBase and it's time for me to get on with it. I have changed my mind a few times on the staking plan but I have finally come up with this one. I don't know if you have heard of the Ratchet Plan or not but it's what I will be using. Basically you start with a Bank, for this example we will use my initial Bank of £500, and that Bank is split in to units. My units will be 25 x £20 The Bank will always be 25 units so if you win, lets say £100 profit in a couple of weeks, your Bank is now £600 so your stakes now are 25 x £24 and will always stay at this until you exceed your Bank again. So if you are successful your stakes will keep rising steadily. If I am successful I will be moving my stakes up in £1 units so if my Bank makes a profit of £25 (£525) then my next stake will be £21 and so on. Now because this system works around the 50% Strike Rate area, and I have back-tested these systems, the longest losing runs I came across were between 6 and 8. However the winning runs were about the same as well. Some of the winners have been in the low 1.20's, 1.30's and so on so that's where the profit comes from as the stakes are a fixed liability. For example a £20 lay on a 1.20 shot, and your lay wins, you win £100 minus Betfair Commission. I will be including commission in my bets. I will also prove I am betting by posting snap shots of every bet and I also will be recording them into a spreadsheet. And from time to time I will take snapshots of the spreadsheet. I might have a qualifier at Naas tomorrow so until then. Xtc12 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheLoneBettor Posted June 8, 2020 Author Share Posted June 8, 2020 (edited) I have one today, hopefully. One of Aidan O'Brien's. 16.30 at Naas. It's hovering around the 2.00 mark and I have a feeling this one will get matched. Unplaced at BSP 1.86 £20 stake for a £22.72 profit. Edited June 8, 2020 by TheLoneBettor Proof of Bet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheLoneBettor Posted June 8, 2020 Author Share Posted June 8, 2020 (edited) Another qualifier. 12.45 at Haydock. Came in 1st. 1 point down. BSP 1.86 -£20.00 Edited June 8, 2020 by TheLoneBettor Updating Result. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheLoneBettor Posted June 8, 2020 Author Share Posted June 8, 2020 (edited) A late bet. Phuket Power 15.15 Haydock. No bet. BSP 2.23 Drifted out 5 mins before race. And it did not place Edited June 8, 2020 by TheLoneBettor Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheLoneBettor Posted June 8, 2020 Author Share Posted June 8, 2020 Okay, 3 qualifiers - 2 bets, 1 winner. Nought to shout home about but £2.72 up. I hope better things ahead. Until then. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheLoneBettor Posted June 9, 2020 Author Share Posted June 9, 2020 (edited) I'm going to put up the bets I think will get matched. If other bets of mine look like they are steaming in I will put them up as and when it happens. Chelmsford 17.45 Sovereign Grant and Godhead 2 to be placed at 1.99 or less. W'Hampton 18.30 Batalha 3 to be placed at 1.50 or less. W'Hampton 20.30 Competition 3 to be placed at 1.99 or less. All £20 Fixed Liability. I'll post the bets nearer to the time. Edited June 9, 2020 by TheLoneBettor Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheLoneBettor Posted June 9, 2020 Author Share Posted June 9, 2020 (edited) Chelmsford 17.45 Sovereign Grant and Godhead 2 to be placed at 1.99 or less. Sovereign Grant will get matched with a current price now in the 1.30's. Godhead is not far away from the 2.00 mark, currently at the 2.20 mark. Sovereign Grant matched at 1.48 finished unplaced. Profit of £40.52 Godhead unmatched at 2.14 Won the race. Stake returned. Edited June 9, 2020 by TheLoneBettor Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheLoneBettor Posted June 9, 2020 Author Share Posted June 9, 2020 ODDS-ON PLACE LAYS SYSTEM - Starting Bank £500.00 - 25 Bets Ratchet Plan Bet Date Time Track Qualifier Jockey Trainer Stake Plc Odds Plc Paid Position Runners P/L (-2%) Bank Now 1 08/06/20 12.45pm Haydock Brad the Brief R Kingscote T Dascombe £20.00 1.86 3 1 11 -£20.00 £480.00 2 08/06/20 1.30pm Naas Yale S Heffernan A O’Brien £20.00 1.86 4 6 17 £22.72 £502.72 3 09/06/20 5.45pm Chelmsford Sovereign Grant R Moore Sir M Stoute £20.00 1.48 2 6 7 £40.52 £543.24 As I said in an earlier post the stakes will rise by a £1.00 for every £25 profit above the starting bank. My stakes now will be at £21.00 per bet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheLoneBettor Posted June 9, 2020 Author Share Posted June 9, 2020 (edited) W'Hampton 18.30 Batalha 3 to be placed. This is a different lay system where the maximum odds are 1.50 or less. Forgot to put the extra £1.00 on lol. Touch and go it will get matched. Matched at 1.42 Unplaced. Profit of £46.24 Would have been more if I had remembered to add an extra £1.00 Edited June 9, 2020 by TheLoneBettor Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheLoneBettor Posted June 9, 2020 Author Share Posted June 9, 2020 With the bank now at £589.48 this time I will remember to up the stakes. Stakes now £23.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheLoneBettor Posted June 9, 2020 Author Share Posted June 9, 2020 (edited) Probably my last bet today. W'Hampton 20.30 Competition 3 to be placed. It's hovering around the 2.00 mark. What a drifter!! Unmatched at BSP 3.01 It thought this bet was a cert to be matched. Has luck has it my stake was returned - Competition was placed 3rd. I suppose it goes with the territory, some of my unmatched bets get a place and some don't. Edited June 9, 2020 by TheLoneBettor Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheLoneBettor Posted June 9, 2020 Author Share Posted June 9, 2020 2 lay bets matched today and 2 winners at 1.42 & 1.48 £86.76 profit. 4.33 points. I can't see my 21.00 Wolverhampton bet getting matched. It looks like I have a few qualifiers for tomorrow. Until then. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheLoneBettor Posted June 10, 2020 Author Share Posted June 10, 2020 I probably will have a few bets on today so from now I will just put them all in one post and update the results as they come. Not all these will be matched but I have done it this way not because I am lazy, it just saves time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheLoneBettor Posted June 10, 2020 Author Share Posted June 10, 2020 (edited) 14.50 Pontefract Lion Tower Unmatched at 2.15 Stake returned. I got lucky again because it placed 2nd. Other 2 horses no where near getting matched. 15.20 Pontefract Anyonecanhaveitall Matched at 1.98 Placed 2nd. Lost £23.00 16.20 Pontefract Shauyra Matched at 1.51 Placed 3rd Lost £23.00 17.20 W'Hampton Bavardages Matched at 1.55 Placed 2nd Lost £23.00 Edited June 10, 2020 by TheLoneBettor Results Update Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheLoneBettor Posted June 10, 2020 Author Share Posted June 10, 2020 ODDS-ON PLACE LAYS SYSTEM - Starting Bank £500.00 - 25 Bets Ratchet Plan Bet Date Time Track Qualifier Jockey Trainer Stake Plc Odds Plc Paid Position Runners P/L (-2%) Bank Now 1 08/06/20 12.45pm Haydock Brad the Brief R Kingscote T Dascombe £20.00 1.86 3 1 11 -£20.00 £480.00 2 08/06/20 1.30pm Naas Yale S Heffernan A O’Brien £20.00 1.86 4 6 17 £22.72 £502.72 3 09/06/20 5.45pm Chelmsford Sovereign Grant R Moore Sir M Stoute £20.00 1.48 2 6 7 £40.52 £543.24 4 09/06/20 6.30pm W’Hampton Batalha F Norton M Johnston £20.00 1.42 3 7 8 £46.24 £589.48 5 10/06/20 3.20pm Pontefract Anyonecanhaveitall J Fanning M Johnston £23.00 1.98 3 2 9 -£23.00 £566.48 6 10/06/20 4.20pm Pontefract Shauyra B A Curtis W J Haggas £23.00 1.51 3 3 12 -£23.00 £543.48 2 losing bets so far today but overall its a 50% SR and £43.48 in profit. As this system operates around a 50% SR I think so far okay. Especially when you get the under 1.50's matched and they win. I may have a couple more bets today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheLoneBettor Posted June 10, 2020 Author Share Posted June 10, 2020 8 hours ago, TheLoneBettor said: 14.50 Pontefract Lion Tower Unmatched at 2.15 Stake returned. I got lucky again because it placed 2nd. Other 2 horses no where near getting matched. 15.20 Pontefract Anyonecanhaveitall Matched at 1.98 Placed 2nd. Lost £23.00 16.20 Pontefract Shauyra Matched at 1.51 Placed 3rd Lost £23.00 17.20 W'Hampton Bavardages Matched at 1.55 Placed 2nd Lost £23.00 3 matched bets and 3 losers today. £69.00 loss. Its been a funny day because 2 of my qualifiers I thought should have been matched drifted out just before the off and did not place. Oh well, I have some more qualifiers tomorrow so until then. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheLoneBettor Posted June 11, 2020 Author Share Posted June 11, 2020 (edited) Not much going on today. A lot of my qualifiers are no where near 1.99 apart from 1. 17.40 Lingfield Bayar Bet Matched at 1.63 Placed 3rd Lost -£23.00 Edited June 11, 2020 by TheLoneBettor Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheLoneBettor Posted June 12, 2020 Author Share Posted June 12, 2020 (edited) (11) AW LAYS 1.01 to 1.50 Cedar Cage 2.45 Kempton 2.75 Morris, Luke (11) AW LAYS 1.01 to 1.50 Luscifer 2.3 Wolverhampton 4.33 Doyle, Hollie (11) AW LAYS 1.01 to 1.50 Dark Regard 3.45 Kempton 4.33 McDonald, P J (12) FLAT LAYS 1.01 TO 1.25 Society Lion 4.55 Newbury 4.33 Moore, Ryan (10) NEWBURY FLAT LAYS Future Investment 5.55 Newbury 6 Ryan, Rossa Might have around 4/5 bets today as these horses forecast odds suggest they will be around the laying price criteria. Newbury Flat Lays is the standard 1.99 or less. After trying to fine tune this system because of lack of bets, I am having a rethink on how to go about this. I am developing a new strategy so I will be updating some time in the future. Edited June 12, 2020 by TheLoneBettor System not producing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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