TheLoneBettor Posted May 31, 2020 Share Posted May 31, 2020 (edited) With my topic 'Horse Racing Back at Newcastle Mon 1st June' now getting closer the mentioned date, it's going to lose its relevance. So I want to start a thread where all members can post any stats relating to horse racing just for a bit of general interest. If anybody would like me to do a search of any stats I would be happy to oblige and I will post them hear. Kempton is racing on Tues 2nd June so I have put together from HRB their Stat Attack stats with 50%+ Place Strike Rate. Singing The Blues is standing out for me so I will be doing a bit more research on that particular horse. Edited May 31, 2020 by TheLoneBettor Image a bit grainy so took zoom of HRB Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheLoneBettor Posted May 31, 2020 Author Share Posted May 31, 2020 (edited) Looking for angles for favourites at Kempton has been one of the toughest searches yet for me. I've tried this and tried that but finally I think I've found something. What I have learned though is that backing favourites blindly is not worth your time at this AW track. Yes, over 3 years and a bit would have yielded a small profit but the last 2 years would have not. I use Forecast Favourites because when betting is live favourites can sometimes fluctuate from 1 horse to another horse then back to the original favourite. That's not static so that would change my selections all the time. Below are the stats for Betfair Starting Prices which are non static. And if we break it down by the month of June (Below) it has a slightly higher strike rate (38.6%) than overall. Breaking down the favourites using trainer/jockey combo and using Forecast Favourites which are static prices. I'd say overall that is quite impressive. Good strike rate and ROI. Even the Betfair P/L(Place) made a small profit. I will say that I did break it down by June and it only produced 1 bet over the last 3 years. The result was a Place. The system has brought up a bet and I will be posting it in Tuesdays Racing Chat. Edited May 31, 2020 by TheLoneBettor Added more stats Zico10 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheLoneBettor Posted June 1, 2020 Author Share Posted June 1, 2020 (edited) After watching Frankly Darling romp home by 5 lengths in the 17.40 Newcastle it gave me happy memories of her Father, Frankel. It was the way she had a turn of speed in the last 1 to 2 furlongs, she just kept pulling away just like Frankel used to do several years ago. I'm not saying she is going to be as good but she certainly has her Fathers turn of speed. I've never put a single stallion in my systems before but since Frankel is my favourite racehorse of all time, and I have also heard that Frankel's foals do very well, I've put together a system matching Frankel with his some of his Dams and also Trainers. It came as no surprise to me to see that Top Trainers have their offspring in their yards. Here are the stats below of the best performing Dams and Trainers since 2016 when Frankel's progeny started racing. I would like to note that the Dam/Trainer combination of Hidden Hope (Which is not in the Dam Data) and J H M Gosden, have not had a win in their last 4 races until today. My qualifier came up because of Gosden's records with Favourites at Newcastle is very good. There are a lot of favourites as you would expect but also a few big priced winners. Overall, I think quite impressive. I think I might start looking at more Stallion/Dam stats. Good God, why are there so many angles in Horse Racing lol. Edited June 2, 2020 by TheLoneBettor Extra Information Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheLoneBettor Posted June 3, 2020 Author Share Posted June 3, 2020 (edited) With too much time on my hands I have been very busy on HRB. So much so I have started looking for something different to bet on with a spare few quid which is not part of my betting bank. A spare bank if you like. I like long shots so I look for systems that produce a reasonable strike rate. I know the chances of landing a winning E/W Treble with big odds are as what the odds suggest. This is what I like to call fun betting as it is with money I can afford to lose. I am looking at Top Rated horses in Handicaps at Yarmouth in the past 3+ years. Yes, the stats look impressive but this is for long term bettors as you will see in the stats below. A massive 21 losers in a row and as for the Place, 8 in a row twice. It has only landed 3 wins in a row once, 2 wins in a row 5 times out of 287 bets. But it has a 20.21% Winning strike rate. The Place Winning Sequences look a bit more promising with the Place% overall at 46.48% and 3 in a row 9 times. The way I am going about this bet is to place £2 E/W on Betfair on the 1st race. If that doesn't get a win/place then another £2 E/W on the 2nd race. If that also doesn't get a win/place the I will call it a day as I am looking for a least a double. The most I will be spending on this fun bet is £8.00 I noticed Case Key in the 14.30 is my nap of the the day for a straight win. That came up in my qualifiers on a totally different system. Well that was fun while it lasted. Didn't catch the winning steak, this time. Edited June 3, 2020 by TheLoneBettor Results Update Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheLoneBettor Posted June 3, 2020 Author Share Posted June 3, 2020 (edited) I always liked the idea of laying horses to try and make some money. But there is that lingering doubt in my mind. I did get caught out laying a horse at odds of around 7.00 so I think the doubt came from there. I have paper traded the horses before and I believe like anybody else who has done this, we have all won. Seems a good thing at the time so when I traded for real it didn't quite work. I have tried to find a system where the odds are under 2.00 because this way as least you double your stake if successful and also the liability is not as great. So I have to try and find horses that have a Place Strike Rate of probably no more than 45% with odds under 2.00 in the Place market. This was not easy at all. I can understand why lay betting is an art in its own right. I'll tell you a story about an old friend of mine who likes to have a bet on almost anything. Actually quite recklessly if I may say. He found the idea of laying as his way to making a fortune. He told me he was laying between 25 and 50 (I think you might already know where this is going) with success to start, all for the sake of a few quid. His system lasted a few days before the inevitable happened. Lost £490 trying to win a tenner. 50's do happen quite rarely but they do happen. He was confident enough to admit this. The one good thing that came out of this was that he gave up laying. Anyhow, here is the system below. It's a bit of a micro-system with only around 40+ bets a year. The Place Strike Rate of 37.06% for odds of 1.99 and under looks like a good value opportunity. HRB can't save this system because the odds are not static. That's the way they work. So the only way for this system to work is to remove the Place Odds Data and check daily qualifiers, look for the horses who are favourites or there about and just sit around Betfair to see if the odds fall into your favour. I think you can set a maximum odds limit on Betfair. The stats below are showing the sequences. In this system you would have had a winning run of 7 lays twice as well as 8 lays twice. You would have had a losing run of 7 once. This is the only lay system I will be doing because of the effort it took finding this one with odds under 2.00 I prefer to back horses but I will be keeping my eye on this one. Edited June 3, 2020 by TheLoneBettor Extra Information Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheLoneBettor Posted June 4, 2020 Author Share Posted June 4, 2020 (edited) Got a qualifier on HRB for the 2000 Guineas on Saturday. It's from the Aiden O'Brien yard and he has 4 entries in the race. With Forecast Odds of of 101 and currently trading on Betfair at 280, and all commentators giving it no chance at all. The horse in question is New World Tapestry. I won't be backing this horse, not even for a place. But all may not lost on this so called no-hoper. I know Aiden likes to use pace makers and I'm guessing that this horse is just that. It's the longest price by far out of his 4 entries. So taking a look at New World Tapestry's form something got me thinking. Apart from it's 1st race, which was 6 furlongs, it has led or tracked when 7 furlongs to a mile. It's odds in-running from it's starting price have dropped quite a bit. With it's odds at the moment at 380, I sort of expect if Aiden is using it as a pace maker then there maybe some money to be had here. Edited June 4, 2020 by TheLoneBettor Image a bit grainy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheLoneBettor Posted June 5, 2020 Author Share Posted June 5, 2020 (edited) I have removed this post that was here because the content in my opinion is very good research which needs more attention. I will be placing bets in the forum GLORY HUNTERS. Edited June 7, 2020 by TheLoneBettor Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheLoneBettor Posted June 11, 2020 Author Share Posted June 11, 2020 (edited) Here are some Royal Ascot stats I researched on HRB. Trainers who have had at least 20 runners since 2017 (Last 3 meetings) First thing that stands out is that the Winning Strike Rates are pretty poor. Looking at the Trainer with the highest Strike Rate gives a different picture entirely. Sir Michael Stoute with 15% and an ROI of 29.37% at (BSP) looks like the best Trainer to follow at Royal Ascot, bearing in mind he didn't have a winner in 2017. In the Place Betting Market he has a massive 47.5% with an ROI of 61.43% at (BSP). Lets have a look at his overall performances below. He seems to have a consistent amount of runners each year. His Place Strike Rate is the stand out one for me. 2018 was a good year so I'm guessing the market caught up with him last year but overall in my opinion he is the one to watch in the Place Betting Market. I'll be doing some more research today so if I find anything of interest I will post it here later. Carrying on with Sir Michael Stoute I have done some fine tuning by putting in the Odds Forecast which eliminated 7 of his bets which were either too short a price to be worth a place (Did not show a profit*) and horses above 15*. As you can see the Place Strike Rate, P/L and ROI are all up after removing the short and long priced runners. His long term stats have also improved. This will be my betting angle for Royal Ascot next week. I just hope the prices are worth it. Edited June 11, 2020 by TheLoneBettor Extra Information Villa Chris 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheLoneBettor Posted June 11, 2020 Author Share Posted June 11, 2020 (edited) I've just spent a few hours on HRB looking for more angles for Royal Ascot. In my view it has got to be one of the hardest meetings to work out where the winners are going to come from. Its probably why many see it as the greatest race meeting in the world as it is just so competitive. Class 1 and Class 2 races with loads of money up for grabs so I can see why trainers love this meeting. Anyhow I have tried loads of combinations and deleted angles that just seemed not worth carrying on with. So I came up with this Micro-Angle but it doesn't really have enough data. However, I do think it is worth a look as there are not many bets each year. I already have a Micro-Angle for Royal Ascot (Above post) but I wanted a second one. Maybe just for research purposes to do with Micro-Angles to see if they merit a place in my stored systems. I did do quite a bit of breaking down here with all kinds of things and I have gone back to 2012. Not many bets I know but it has a slight consistency as you will see below. I am going on the fact that as long as there are about 8 qualifiers then I think just a few quid can be justified as a Micro-Angle test. Not life changing money I know but systems like this will probably need working on in the future. Well, that's me finished looking for angles at Royal Ascot. For this year at least. Edited June 11, 2020 by TheLoneBettor Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheLoneBettor Posted June 12, 2020 Author Share Posted June 12, 2020 (edited) Looking at trainers with 1st time out 2 year old's on the All Weather. This is just a quick search and something I will be watching and improving. Has a pretty good Strike Rate but it is a long term strategy as 11 losers in a row. It has a good consistency and is carrying that forward in 2020 with a 30% SR. There is one qualifier today in the 12.45 at Kempton - Live Stream. I'll use that as my nap of the day. This will be my last post. Thanks to all who appreciated what I was doing but I get the feeling systems are not really supported on this site due to the lack of interaction. HRB needs its own forum. Regards Edited June 12, 2020 by TheLoneBettor Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted June 12, 2020 Share Posted June 12, 2020 Thanks for your research. It is a little unfair to claim that systems are not supported, you only have to look at Ralphies's quick system which I think has now been running profitably for 16 years. I think the problem with your systems is that they are classic back fitting strategies. Picking certain trainers and jockeys because they have been successful in the past is unlikely to lead to success in the future, I have been down this road myself. I would have more confidence in these systems if you had developed them based on, let's say 2016-2018, and then tested them on 2019. I would also want 100 winners before I was confident in a system. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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