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richard-westwood

Value or bust

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Time to really specialise and go for it ....search for value in all spheres and see once and for all if money can be made ....risky and could go tits up but if I'm careful with prices and only back if the price outweighs the mathematical chance then should do ok ....I can easily cover a 1000pt bank and normal bet will be 3pts unless otherwise stated ....this will cover losing runs hopefully which are inevitable given the risky nature of value betting ...key to this will be getting best possible prices ....that means across all bookies ...betfair ...wherever and the window might only last a short while so I'll be updating as necessary as a no bet the night before might change to a bet next day and vice versa .....see what happens ...I'll give it my best shot and hope for the best 

Bank 1000 pts 

Weds 9th June selections 

350 pont   buiram  3pts win 4/1 lads 

435 yarm   ocean pearl  3pts win 13/2 bet365

Sparkling olly  3pts win 13/2 bet365 

745 yarm  molly mai   3pts win 7/1 bet365 

Bet 12pts ....bank 988pts  4 bets 

 

 

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I'm a huge fan of value bets as well, Richard. I believe you have a sensible approach to it and you certainly have the bank for it.

I believe in the long run value bets have an advantage if you choose them correctly because bookmakers are human as well (c'est la vie) and they do make mistakes.

I wish you well with your system.

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14 hours ago, TheLoneBettor said:

I'm a huge fan of value bets as well, Richard. I believe you have a sensible approach to it and you certainly have the bank for it.

I believe in the long run value bets have an advantage if you choose them correctly because bookmakers are human as well (c'est la vie) and they do make mistakes.

I wish you well with your system.

So whats value then???

People have different theories about value

Is it just a price you think is bigger than you first thought?

Is it just avoiding short priced fav's? (although some would argue an odds on fav can be value)

Or is it just backing at big prices and suffering long losing runs.

Is EW value betting?

*Dont forget the prices are being worked out differently at the minute too, the landscape is changing.

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1 hour ago, BillyHills said:

 

So whats value then???

People have different theories about value

Is it just a price you think is bigger than you first thought?

Is it just avoiding short priced fav's? (although some would argue an odds on fav can be value)

Or is it just backing at big prices and suffering long losing runs.

Is EW value betting?

*Dont forget the prices are being worked out differently at the minute too, the landscape is changing.

I think it's just a selection at much bigger odds than it should be and that can be at any price

I had a huge bet (18 times my normal stake) last night on Leverkusen in the German Cup semi-final at 1/6

One of the top Bundesliga teams, match fit, playing a 4th Division outfit who'd done well to get to the Semi but hadn't played any game at all, not even a friendly, since the Virus in March

I thought 1/6 was great value ...... compare with Bayern at 1/8 in the other semi playing a fellow Bundesliga team

Hope it goes well Richard ....... I'll follow with interest ........... 🙂

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1 hour ago, BillyHills said:

 

So whats value then???

People have different theories about value

Is it just a price you think is bigger than you first thought?

Is it just avoiding short priced fav's? (although some would argue an odds on fav can be value)

Or is it just backing at big prices and suffering long losing runs.

Is EW value betting?

*Dont forget the prices are being worked out differently at the minute too, the landscape is changing.

People have different theories about value.

Yes, that's an absolutely true statement. One persons value is another persons mug bet.

I should have made it clear about what I see as value. My idea of value is statistical. I believe in trends and sequences. For example if one trainer has a greater strike rate at a certain track than the other trainers then the market will reflect that. His or her horses are more than likely to be favourite than not. Would I see that as value? It would depend on the prices. But if there was another trainer in the race who was good at buying sellers and on their first outing for him/her had a 50% strike rate of getting a place, and the odds were attractive then yes, I would see that as a value bet and also a long term strategy. I can then confidently say to myself "That's a value bet".

Its only a matter of time whether or not my perception of value has come true. Whatever the outcome is I still believe my own perception of value can pay off in the long run. Some will work and some won't. 

 

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In this case it's a old system I followed for 4 months a while back and it made a profit every month I used it .....I meant to keep up with it but got side tracked ....its based on certain trainers doing really well at certain courses then if the horse passes form qualifiers I.e ...it has a chance today ....you convert it to a base price and if you can get bigger then you back ......its as simple as that .....I've already proven it works short term but let's see if it can sustain that or better it long term .......the maths is undeniable so it has a strong basis to work as long as your sensible with horse choice 

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Thurs 11th june Tomorrows qualifiers so far ....(others pending ...)

320 bev stringybark creek 3pts win 10/1 willh

350 bev candelusa 3pts win 6/1 willh

Mickey  3pts win 17/2 willh 

700 yarm...sparkling diamond 3pts win 6/1 willh 

 

Edited by richard-westwood

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I use a similar method in big races ....except once I've rated the race with my ratings I draw up a quick book based on those and if the prices available are better than my tissue then I'll play ... it seems to work well....and it's nice knowing the horse your backing has value built in  and is not just random picking ....nothing better than backing a 7/1 shot  at 12/1 .....then watching it win ....in the long run you will always come out on top ....always ....over the past 5 years since being on here I've tripled my betting bank .....just following value bets so it works ....my friends are always saying ....double your stakes .....triple your stakes !!!!....but with increased bank comes less risk so no matter what the losing run ....20 horses whatever I'm never in any danger and I like that it just means I can enjoy the process and racing 

Edited by richard-westwood

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I think this is a very interesting thread because of the subject VALUE. So I have done a fictional horse race below for fun. I've named the horses after planets, just because I like cosmology. And I'm also bored waiting for my first race.

    Solar System 14.30  5 Furlongs                                 

     Horse             Form                   SP Odds       Over-Round%                   Statistics

1. Mercury              2                         5/2                28.57%                       Trainer has a 33% Win Strike Rate when LTO was 2nd.

2. Venus                 2                         4/1                20%                            Trainer and Jockey Combo have a 25% Win Strike Rate when at this track.

3  Earth                  2                          5/1               16.67%                        Stallion and Dam have a 22.5% Win Strike Rate with Horses Trainer.

4  Mars                   2                          6/1               14.28%                        Owner of Horse has 20% Win Strike Rate with Jockey.

5 Jupiter                 2                          7/1               12.5%                          Trainer has 17% Win Strike Rate when Horses SP is between 6/1 and 10-1

6 Saturn                 2                          8/1                11.11%                        Trainer has 15% Win Strike Rate with Horses at this distance.

                                                                                103.13 %

Which one would you bet on? I think from my value perspective each horse has its own merits. If I had to bet on one I suppose it would be Mercury because it is favourite and has the higher strike rate from a stats perspective. But from my point of view which ever horse won this race there was value to be had because of the stats v the prices. I would not personally bet in a race like this but I would make a note of each stat and work on future races with them.

 

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32 minutes ago, TheLoneBettor said:

I think this is a very interesting thread because of the subject VALUE. So I have done a fictional horse race below for fun. I've named the horses after planets, just because I like cosmology. And I'm also bored waiting for my first race.

    Solar System 14.30  5 Furlongs                                 

     Horse             Form                   SP Odds       Over-Round%                   Statistics

1. Mercury              2                         5/2                28.57%                       Trainer has a 33% Win Strike Rate when LTO was 2nd.

2. Venus                 2                         4/1                20%                            Trainer and Jockey Combo have a 25% Win Strike Rate when at this track.

3  Earth                  2                          5/1               16.67%                        Stallion and Dam have a 22.5% Win Strike Rate with Horses Trainer.

4  Mars                   2                          6/1               14.28%                        Owner of Horse has 20% Win Strike Rate with Jockey.

5 Jupiter                 2                          7/1               12.5%                          Trainer has 17% Win Strike Rate when Horses SP is between 6/1 and 10-1

6 Saturn                 2                          8/1                11.11%                        Trainer has 15% Win Strike Rate with Horses at this distance.

                                                                                103.13 %

Which one would you bet on? I think from my value perspective each horse has its own merits. If I had to bet on one I suppose it would be Mercury because it is favourite and has the higher strike rate from a stats perspective. But from my point of view which ever horse won this race there was value to be had because of the stats v the prices. I would not personally bet in a race like this but I would make a note of each stat and work on future races with them.

 

The value bet to me looks earth but I'd give a complete swerve lol .....9/2 is tissue and your offering 5/1 ....

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5 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

Thurs 11th june Tomorrows qualifiers so far ....(others pending ...)

320 bev stringybark creek 3pts win 10/1 willh

350 bev candelusa 3pts win 6/1 willh

Mickey  3pts win 17/2 willh 

700 yarm...sparkling diamond 3pts win 6/1 willh 

 

Added waldfabel 410 newb 3pt win 13/2 bet365

On guard 500.yarm 3pt win 7/2 b365 

Bets 10 bank currently 970pts including these 6 bets 

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1 winner so far today 11/2 ....bank currently 992.50 with 1to come later 

Tomorrows bets fri 12th june 

12.00 wolves  3pts win golden claim 20/1 bet365

455 newb king of arms 3pts win 10/1 lads 

Johan  3pts win 7/1 lads 

8.00 newb kew palace 3pts win 8/1 lads 

Raventree 12/1 3pts win lads 

15pts staked ....bank 977.50 14 bets to date 

 

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Just getting tomorrows bets in early ....

1 winner so far today 7/1 ( sp 7/2 ) ...

With 1 more to come bank currently 1001.50 not including tomorrows 

Sat 13th june ...

Carlos felix 3pts win 13/2 lads 355 donc 

Mubtasimah 3pts win 7/1 888....225 newb 

Nuit st George 3pts win 13/2 bet365 420 sand 

Young Merlin 3pts win 6/1 coral 450 sand 

Alghada 3pts win 16/1 bet365 5.00 Leicester 

Anno maximo 3pts win 12/1 betvic 7.00 Leicester 

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On 6/12/2020 at 6:58 PM, richard-westwood said:

Just getting tomorrows bets in early ....

1 winner so far today 7/1 ( sp 7/2 ) ...

With 1 more to come bank currently 1001.50 not including tomorrows 

Sat 13th june ...

Carlos felix 3pts win 13/2 lads 355 donc 

Mubtasimah 3pts win 7/1 888....225 newb 

Nuit st George 3pts win 13/2 bet365 420 sand 

Young Merlin 3pts win 6/1 coral 450 sand 

Alghada 3pts win 16/1 bet365 5.00 Leicester 

Anno maximo 3pts win 12/1 betvic 7.00 Leicester 

Almost a mega day ....young merlin pipped on line by a 33/1 shot ....alghada 3rd at 33/1!!....nuit  st george won 13/2 (sp 5/2 !!)...value .....and mubtasimah won 7/1 (sp 3/1 )...value again ....bank stands at 1030 ...after 20 bets .....

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5 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

Monday 15th selections 

210 good   Leo davinci 3pts win 16/1 willh

220 pont Billy Robert's 3pts win 12/1 willh

355 pont urban spirit 3pts win 5/1 willh

525 chep maerchengarton 3pts win 12/1 willh 

755 chep fitzrovia 3pts win 9/2 willh 

Added bimble..12.35 good 3pts win 5/1

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20 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

Fri 19th june selections 

440 ascot scarlet dragon 3pts win 42.0 ...betfair 

El misk 3pts win 14.5 betfair 

Scarlet dragon Gets up close home .....the ultimate value bet 42.0!!...crazy price ...el misk non runner 

35 bets  ...bank now 1150 !!......in 10 days (+150)

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