Villa Chris
-
Posts
2,101 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
44
Posts posted by Villa Chris
-
-
Wrong thread
-
22 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:
Maybe because my star sign is Aries which means I can't help coming up with new ideas. Sorry
If that’s the case start doing your own ratings. Really doesn’t have to be complicated and it isn’t anyway. Keep tinkering until you’re happy with what you have and see how it runs. It’s more fun and there’s no emotional decisions to be made regarding who’s riding for who etc . Some of the ways I was picking selections before were woeful but you live and learn. I’m still not 100% happy now but as it stands I’m confident enough that I can make a profit with how I’m betting but we’ll see .
-
6.15 Tipperary Sharjah 11/8
RP forecast as him down 5/1 favourite which is miles off. He went up at 7/4 and quickly went into 11/8. 14 runners level weights grade 3 race and he’s the class act in the field. Easy money? We shall see, but he still retains plenty of class even at 10.
5 points win
3.48 Perth Captain Zebo 3/1 bog
drops down into a class 4 and is in pretty good form. The favourite will be dangerous if he can show what he’s capable of, but the selection ran a really strong race lto and remains on same mark. This is easier .
5 points win
- yossa6133, The Equaliser, kensland and 2 others
-
5
-
1 hour ago, Trotter said:
wasn't me Chris ..... unless you're remembering something from so long ago that I've forgotten it !
I don't really bother with staking plans ...... but this sounds like a good idea although it appears to be 'bet your winnings until you have a loser, then you're back to zero winnings'......
My bad, may have been Richard who I was thinking of. Regarding the strategy I’d probably run it once then repeat. Take stake back use bookies money for second race and if that wins too just go back to your normal stake and repeat that way.
-
8 hours ago, Villa Chris said:
Good morning Ken , it’s Wednesday today 🙂
Worcester 4.23
Polish 9.49 9/4
Irish Prophecy 9.27 15/2
These two bit clear of the rest . Polish ran a good race beaten a head on his first run back the other week. Irish Prophecy is more known as a chaser these days and I marked him up as one of interest on his last run so not sure why they have taken him down the hurdles route. He may play a part but I think Polish is a strong bet here and should find this easier than his last race.
5 points win Polish
Finish second to the Ben Pauling horse that was good enough 🙂
P/L jump season start date 8th October 2022 +140.19
-
2 minutes ago, Bang on said:
Hope you're right as I'm on Polish as well. A very interesting 7 runner race IMO. Irish prophecy (down 21lbs), Polish ( -17lbs), Nevilles Cross (-22lbs) and Court Master (-21lbs). Throw in the Ben Pauling runner (won last 2), and a Nicky Henderson runner ... quite a conundrum.
I like to think it’s there for the taking for him. I feel Irish could play a big part, Neville’s Cross is just not at it at the moment and along with Court Master that trio are better known as chasers. Not sure the Ben Pauling runner is good enough. The race Polish just got held in lto was a stronger race I think. Second run for Fergal O’B and I’d expect him to improve again.
-
1 hour ago, richard-westwood said:
450 thirsk
Rocket rod 8.0 10.5
Lillikoi 7.8 11.5
Time to have a bit of fun .....thought I'd set myself a target of winning something big using a diff staking plan .......when I get a,winner I'll deduct original stake and use bookies money on next race to have a shot at something big ....initially let's say a weekend in york ( let's say 400 ) ...so I'll try 10pt wins these 2 and see how it goes and keep going until its crossed off then set a new task 😉
Can’t remember who it was on here , although @Trotter rings a bell . I think he did the same tactics regarding staking plan for a bit
- richard-westwood and MCLARKE
-
2
-
-
8 minutes ago, yossa6133 said:
Gone for a couple at Thirsk.
Magical Effect 4:50 (20/1 Bet365). 11 year old but still seems to retain ability. On a winnable mark and has a victory over CD a while ago. Slowly away last time when nibbled in the market and not persevered with but stayed on. Could have a chance today at a big price if getting away on terms.
Mr Wagyu 5:20 (9/4 Bet365...gone 2/1 now). Been running well in good races without quite getting there. Down in grade and should be thereabouts.
Yeah you’d think Mr Wagyu would be hard to beat here . I also like On A Session in the 3.35 at Musselburgh
- black rabbit and yossa6133
-
2
-
Good morning Ken , it’s Wednesday today 🙂
Worcester 4.23
Polish 9.49 9/4
Irish Prophecy 9.27 15/2
These two bit clear of the rest . Polish ran a good race beaten a head on his first run back the other week. Irish Prophecy is more known as a chaser these days and I marked him up as one of interest on his last run so not sure why they have taken him down the hurdles route. He may play a part but I think Polish is a strong bet here and should find this easier than his last race.
5 points win Polish
-
12 hours ago, Villa Chris said:
Stratford 7.10
Cracking Destiny 9.39 5/1 won 10/1
Admiral Sunset 9.27 5/1
Romanor 9.17 6/1
Sea Prince 9.1 10/3
Sau 9.04 5/1
8 horse race with the top 5 tightly group together . The ratings aren’t giving much away and neither are the bookies. Cracking Destiny might be on the decline but he’s been running respectably and continues to drop down the weights. Third run after wind op and watching his previous two races after a break there is enough to like to think he can win this .
5 points win 5/1 bog
Won at 10/1 50 points profit
P/L jump season start date 8th October 2022 +145.19
-
Stratford 7.10
Cracking Destiny 9.39 5/1 won 10/1
Admiral Sunset 9.27 5/1
Romanor 9.17 6/1
Sea Prince 9.1 10/3
Sau 9.04 5/1
8 horse race with the top 5 tightly group together . The ratings aren’t giving much away and neither are the bookies. Cracking Destiny might be on the decline but he’s been running respectably and continues to drop down the weights. Third run after wind op and watching his previous two races after a break there is enough to like to think he can win this .
5 points win 5/1 bog
-
8 hours ago, MCLARKE said:
Quick returners used to be my goto system but it has gone off the boil in the last couple of years, not sure if the betting public's caught on or different training methods etc
It’s something that interested me as well, although I find it does offer poor value on a lot of horses.
-
19 minutes ago, calva decoy said:
Is it me or are they more ol' skool 6 race cards around at the moment ?
I read not long ago and also heard yesterday that’s the new norm again
-
35 minutes ago, black rabbit said:
Saddlers Quest - 4 45 Sth/ 1/40th of a pt ew 20/1
I’ve just burned my finger liking your post 😉
- kensland and black rabbit
-
2
-
23 hours ago, Villa Chris said:
What a jumps card for tomorrow, it’s like a mini Cheltenham with the Irish sending a few over. As Frank would say to his wife “Betty I’m Excited “
2.05 Cartmel , Walking The Walk 7/13rd
He’s actually third on ratings, so I’m thinking outside the box , but the top two I feel won’t like this big field and with a few front runners going off at it I think the selection can pounce late .
2.30 Uttoxeter, Hatcher 9/2
2.40 Cartmel , Too Friendly 7/12nd so close ran a blinder
3.12 Uttoxeter, Definite Plan 12/1
3.52 Uttoxeter, Sacre Couer 3/1
5 points win each
Enjoyed watching the racing today even though I’m sofa ridden with Covid. Was gutted for Too Friendly who ran a very brave race beaten by a head . No winners .
P/L jump season start date 8th October 2022 +95.19
- black rabbit, The Equaliser and MCLARKE
-
1
-
2
-
It’s amazing what a drop down in class can do. Two races and two horses I had my eye on today , Valentino Dancer finished 2nd at 28/1 at Uttoxeter and Didtheyleaveuoutto won at Cartmel at 10/1 . Both had been struggling of late .
- calva decoy and black rabbit
-
2
-
That wasn’t pleasant to watch . San Antonio went wrong , shame.
-
12 hours ago, Zilzalian said:
I wouldn't fall out with you over it to be honest but i often warn about too big a stakes on Lucky 15's everything has to be scripted to your financial circumstances as you can see i advised @tonythepaint to not bother with the singles, personally i do do the singles but rarely all 4, because my L15's are made up from my notebook and speed figures (i occasionally have a mess about if i consider the racing that day poor) then i have to go with them to a great degree, i very rarely back favs in singles. Imagine this, if i spend so much time on my speed figures and just used the selections in Lucky's would that be wise or unwise? i have a range for betting the singles which goes from £5 (average) to £200 (rare) i will concede that due to the loss of the 4/1+ offer i have reduced the amount of singles that i bet on but if i have a speed figure that is very strong i would be a fool not to back it to a stake that is or what i consider proportionate to its chance. We must always remember the most important bit which is when advising others that we emphasise affordability.
Separately I think long term for example you will reduce the amount of lucky 15's you have and up your stake a bit. That is to say your thinking will evolve with the more analysis that you do but again i will stress that 99.9% of punters are not analytical they just like to have a bet and don't worry too much about their loses if those bets/loses are in keeping with their budget. Tony asked a question so i looked at his posts and advised him accordingly. This part was the important part that Tony wrote " Can't do £5 singles at the moment but I might start off a bit lower and hopefully and build up." (i have been there) anyone asking me for advice i would look at individually and give my honest opinion but it will always be based around their circumstances.
* some people just can't be helped/advised because even if/when they ask for advice they will totally ignore it for whatever reason they can conjure up if it doesn't confirm what they are already are stuck with despite any facts and/or evidence you chuck at them.
As an individual what advice would you give me going off my posts on here
-
3.00 Curragh
Laugh A Minute 10.04 12/1
Master Matt 10.01 16/1 2nd
Came From The Dark 9.74 6/1
Big Gossey 9.57 10/14th
Jon Riggens 9.19 5/1
- black rabbit, azzybear, LEE-GRAYS and 1 other
-
4
-
What a jumps card for tomorrow, it’s like a mini Cheltenham with the Irish sending a few over. As Frank would say to his wife “Betty I’m Excited “
2.05 Cartmel , Walking The Walk 7/13rd
He’s actually third on ratings, so I’m thinking outside the box , but the top two I feel won’t like this big field and with a few front runners going off at it I think the selection can pounce late .
2.30 Uttoxeter, Hatcher 9/2
2.40 Cartmel , Too Friendly 7/12nd so close ran a blinder
3.12 Uttoxeter, Definite Plan 12/1
3.52 Uttoxeter, Sacre Couer 3/1
5 points win each
- MinellaWorksop, kensland, MCLARKE and 5 others
-
8
-
lucky 15 Start date 17th May 2023 - 35.17
This is my running total now I’ve calculated royal ascot into it from the other thread.
-
22 minutes ago, tonythepaint said:
How much would you put on the singles.
If you do a 20p lucky 15 and lay out £3 what should you do?
Maybe 50p singles to make the bet £5 or just do what you want.
I’d say whatever you’re comfortable with putting on the singles . The lucky 15 is some cheap fun. I’d imagine Zilz puts more on his singles .
-
51 minutes ago, black rabbit said:
cant belive the drift i obviously had to have another nibble as it drifted to 22"s on exchange
I watched the race out of interest and he won with ease. Was set a nice pace to aim at.
- black rabbit and MCLARKE
-
2
Racing Chat - Thursday 6th July
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
My missus swears by them. She’s got an old book give to her by some old mystic. Maybe if we could find out when the actual birthday of an horse is it might help us.