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Villa Chris

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Posts posted by Villa Chris

    RACING CHAT MONDAY 22ND JULY 2024

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    51 minutes ago, Villa Chris said:

    I’ll put this up for interest no value again but see how it does . 
     

    Ilikedwayurthinkin 28 5/4 ( my odds 9/2)

    Cardamom Hill 27 7/2 ( my odds 5/1)

    Wasdell Dundalk 24 7/1 ( my odds 6/1) 

    Wasdell borderline value and one of those horses I’ve taken a shine to for some unknown reason but see how the race pans out.  Hoping to find some value in the 7.00 Beverley . 

    Top rated won again but you’d let him win at that price 

    RACING CHAT MONDAY 22ND JULY 2024

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    I’ll put this up for interest no value again but see how it does . 
     

    Ilikedwayurthinkin 28 5/4 ( my odds 9/2)

    Cardamom Hill 27 7/2 ( my odds 5/1)

    Wasdell Dundalk 24 7/1 ( my odds 6/1) 

    Wasdell borderline value and one of those horses I’ve taken a shine to for some unknown reason but see how the race pans out.  Hoping to find some value in the 7.00 Beverley . 

    RACING CHAT MONDAY 22ND JULY 2024

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    11 minutes ago, Villa Chris said:

    Bit late but I’ll treat it as a test run for ratings as there no value . I did this earlier . 

    3.20 Cartmel 

    City Derby 31 7/2 ( my odds 9/2)

    Starlyte 26 5/1 ( my odds 11/2)

    Dalileo 24 15/2 ( my odds 6/1) 

    Dalileo is bordering value now , he wasn’t earlier but I’ll sit this one out 

    City Derby clear  on ratings and won very comfortably in the end. 

    Racing chat-sunday 22nd July

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted · Edited by Villa Chris

    58 minutes ago, Villa Chris said:

    Quiet day really maybe should leave it alone as rated one race and not much wriggle room regarding odds but then I’ve just done the 3.25 at Stratford which is only a 7 horse race but offers some good prices. 
     

    Matterhorn 25  13/8 ( my odds 4/1) 

    In This World 23 7/4 (my odds 5/1)

    Sir TiVo 11/1 23 11/1 ( my odds 5/1)

    Cracking Destiny 23 18/1 ( my odds 5/1) 

    Tight affair and two hot favourites but I think it’s worth taking them on with the odds available so point win on both Sir TiVo and Cracking Destiny 

    The two young guns finish first and second with the latter two nowhere and falling 

    -18

    Racing chat-sunday 22nd July

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Quiet day really maybe should leave it alone as rated one race and not much wriggle room regarding odds but then I’ve just done the 3.25 at Stratford which is only a 7 horse race but offers some good prices. 
     

    Matterhorn 25  13/8 ( my odds 4/1) 

    In This World 23 7/4 (my odds 5/1)

    Sir TiVo 11/1 23 11/1 ( my odds 5/1)

    Cracking Destiny 23 18/1 ( my odds 5/1) 

    Tight affair and two hot favourites but I think it’s worth taking them on with the odds available so point win on both Sir TiVo and Cracking Destiny 

    Racing chat -saturday 20th July

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    9 hours ago, Villa Chris said:

    Ripon 3.55

    Iron Lion 24 7/1 ( my odds 7/1)

    Lord Protector 23 20/1 ( my odds 7/1)

    Sea King 21 5/2 ( my odds 8/1)

    L’Astronome 21 20/1 ( my odds 8/1)

    Couple of surprises in here with Lord Protector and L’Astronome rating high. Will play both a point each as excellent value 

    Top rated won but Lord Protecter just didn’t stay this new trip

    Racing chat -saturday 20th July

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    6 hours ago, Villa Chris said:

    Ripon 3.55

    Iron Lion 24 7/1 ( my odds 7/1)

    Lord Protector 23 20/1 ( my odds 7/1)

    Sea King 21 5/2 ( my odds 8/1)

    L’Astronome 21 20/1 ( my odds 8/1)

    Couple of surprises in here with Lord Protector and L’Astronome rating high. Will play both a point each as excellent value 

    L’Astronome non runner so put the money on the now sole selection Lord Protector who is now 40/1 

    Racing chat -Friday 19th July

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted · Edited by Villa Chris

    4 hours ago, Villa Chris said:

    The race above doesn’t look like it’s going to represent any value so will be left alone . I’ll be playing my cards in the 7.55 at Pontefract  instead which offers some good value. 
     

    Dakota Gold 28 odds 10/1 (my odds 11/2)

    Wen Moon 26 odds 3/1 ( my odds 13/2)

    Hiya Maite 26 odds 16/1 ( my odds 13/2) 

    Dakota and Hiya Maite represent very good value so will play 1 point each .

    Hiya Maite second . Two seconds today at 11/1 and 16/1 so close but not close enough. Wen Moon was third too for the ratings . 
     

    -12 

    Racing chat -Friday 19th July

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted · Edited by Villa Chris

    11 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

    Well I'd have been better making numbers up today! It is a reminder (as with my footy betting) that sometimes the conclusion is "no bet" after you've studied a game or race. 

    In particular, there's a difference between a race where the top 3 are clear of the field and post a big value number compared to a scenario like today where about 6 index points cover the top 7 and the value ratings are modest. If I'm going to carry on along similar lines I probably need to draw a line that selections need to get over to be a bet.

    Wise words regarding what are considered strong bets and real worth while value . Because I’m notepad and paper I just pick two races I like the look of them rate them. Computerised would make it easier and give me more variety and races to look at. 

    Racing chat -Friday 19th July

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    9 hours ago, Villa Chris said:

    Newmarket 7.35 

    Abate 25 11/2 ( my odds 6/1) 

    Antiphon 23 9/2 ( my odds 7/1)

    Capo Vaticano 21 7/2 ( my odds 8/1)

    Regal Envoy 21 15/2 ( my odds 8/1) 

     I’ll wait and see if any of them drift to my own odds . Abate and Regal Envoy are the likely two to drift to a betting price. 

    The race above doesn’t look like it’s going to represent any value so will be left alone . I’ll be playing my cards in the 7.55 at Pontefract  instead which offers some good value. 
     

    Dakota Gold 28 odds 10/1 (my odds 11/2)

    Wen Moon 26 odds 3/1 ( my odds 13/2)

    Hiya Maite 26 odds 16/1 ( my odds 13/2) 

    Dakota and Hiya Maite represent very good value so will play 1 point each .

    Racing chat -Friday 19th July

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    1 hour ago, richard-westwood said:

    I've sat down and really given it a lot of thought .....you can rate a race and find value every time but if that doesn't go hand in hand with the horses actual chance to win then you'll always be running for a place and that's what seemed to be happening in my results ......so what I'm going to do is post the top 4 fully  form rated .....then back the best value (nearest to their true price ) .....that way I should be getting form and value rather than just backing a value horse 

    635 ham 

    Tiriac. 303  edge 0.47 

    Spangled Mac. 299 0.90

    Manila Scouse. 292 0.82 

    First folio. 287 0.78 

    Fav is poor value .....the horse that seems to stand out is SPANGLED MAC who at 15/2 is almost his expected price so that's the bet Ew ..negative is he's had a long layoff (8monthes)...but that's offset by 5lb claim so I'll still play it ....1 PT Ew ...

    Could make a case for Manila Scouse Ew but I'm trying to find a method for a  very strong "placed" horse whilst keeping outlay down to maximise profits 

    That feels a better method and is still getting value ....

    I’m doing my top 3 rated which includes form then seeing if I can get value. I’ll keep sticking with it at small stakes. 

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