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Villa Chris

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Posts posted by Villa Chris

  1. 20 hours ago, Tedthewolf said:

    Really surprised Lord Riddiford  isn't high in your Ratings Rich low weight loves it here  soft ground no problem winner of this the last 2 years looks a cracking e/w bet to me👍

    I’ve got him high up in the ratings . I’m also experimenting with a RPR and weight carried points system and he’s joint top with Raasel on that but take that with a pinch of salt as it’s still in progress . Not having any bets today just testing. 
     

    1.40 Raasel/ Lord Riddiford 

    2.50  1 Lord Protector 2 Eagles Way 

  2. Thought Kauto The King was a touch unlucky there to have his momentum stopped by being cut off by other horses bypassing the second last . May not have won but found himself in a bad position there. My selection Fat Sam fell and I’m not surprised , his jumping was very erratic from the first fence onwards. Looked a bad fall but horse/jockey ok .

  3. 2 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

    They shoukd have run better than that ....races like that do my head in ......but it happens I think sometimes the racing gods have a laugh 😃

    I'm just putting the finishing touches to class rating .....I want to narrow the bets to 1 or 2 from top 4 so I'm programming the computer to give me a class rating for each of  last 3 runs so it will hopefully come out like this 

    Horse,a   9.0    41 39 38.5 

    Horse b 8.8   36  34 34 

    Horse c 8.7  31 27 30 

    Horse d 8.5   33 32 34 

    As you can see in this case Horse a woukd warrant a bigger bet with b and d as dangers . .  Its a work in progress but it shoukd help in long run hopefully 🙏 

    I think no matter how good you get the ratings and yours are very good, you will always have races where they are just way off for that particular race on that day, especially handicaps . I’ve started using a -minus and a + plus in my ratings to separate horses that have say both won a class 2 for example. It’s not hard to notice that some class 2s are far weaker than others and a quick look at the prize money and the calibre of horses in the race shows you that. 

  4. 13 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

    Hi Richard, we have talked about "class" before.  I don't know if the following is of any use.  It was put forward by Michael Wilding at Race Advisor.   He prefers to look at prize money as opposed to the classifications.

    "Class

     

    Horses get put into a class based on their Official Rating (OR). The classes look like this:

     

    Class 1 – Official Ratings 96+.Features Classics & subdivided into Groups 1, 2 and 3

     

    Class 2 – Official Ratings range from 86-100, 91-105, 96-110

     

    Class 3 – Official Ratings range from 76-90 and 81-95

     

    Class 4 – Official Ratings range from 66-80 and 71-85

     

    Class 5 – Official Ratings range from 56-70 and 61-75

     

    Class 6 – Official Ratings range from 46-60 and 51-65

     

    Class 7 – Official Ratings range from 0-45

     

    If you look at the rating of horses who can be in different classes, you will see there is a huge overlap.

     

    For example, a horse with a rating of 57 could race in a class 6 or class 5 race, competing against very

     

    different levels of other horses.

     

    So, instead of using class, I recommend you use prize money to determine the class of a horse.

     

    As an example, take Thyme White. In this race he was favourite at odds of 2.03 in this race:

     

    This race is worth £40,000, but if we look at the races where the horse has performed well, they’re only

     

    worth around £6,000 to £10,000. He did win a £20,000 race, but it was nearly two years ago, and he hasn’t

     

    performed as well since."

     

    This was a race example but I think you will get the idea.

    I think I have further analysis of breaking a race down into prize money for "class" purposes but if you are not interested I won't bother to look for it.

    I once used a prize money won strategy to pick my selections . It was promising but never stuck with it which tells you it wasn’t all that in the end , but I’d definitely consider using it again to form some  part of a rating for a horse 

  5. 21 hours ago, black rabbit said:

    Saddlers Quest                                                   4 55 Uttx/                     1/40th of a pt    ew        25/1 

    Witch  Hunter                                                      2 50 Pon/                     1/40th of a pt win          11/1 

    Haumea                                                                1 45 Pon/                     1/40th of a pt win         20/1              

    Nice win 👋

  6. 5 hours ago, Villa Chris said:

    3.10 Uttoxeter Court Master 5/1 bog 2nd

    3.45 Uttoxeter Polish 4/1 2nd 

    5 points win each 

     

    P/L jump season start date 8th October 2022 +100.19

    Both finished second 

     

    P/L jump season start date 8th October 2022 +90.19

  7. 4 hours ago, pa4410 said:

    Ayr

    2.55 Monsiur kodi

    3.30 broctune red 

    4.05 Ravenscraig Castle 

    4.40 Classy Al

    5.15 Caribbean sunset

    Thanks for the replies on yesterday thread guys. I've been picking one meeting and going for handicap races on that day. Safe to say its not worked. One last try then I need to have a look at how to change things a little. 

     

    Don’t be so harsh on yourself. I’ve not had a winner for about a week now and I’ve had a bet everyday during the past week some days 2-3 bets . Had a 10/1 winner last Monday and zero since but that’s racing for you. It’s frustrating at times and does test you but keep it fun. The more you put in the more you’ll learn and the better results will be but even the best on here have their dry spells .

  8. 11 hours ago, pa4410 said:

    Chelmsford 

    2.45 - No News  10/1

    3.20 - Chloa Empire 12/1

    4.30 - Monaadhil  8/1

    5.40 - The Defiant  11/2

     

    Do you guys go through every race of the day to choose your selections? Or are there ways you pick out races to look at? cheers. 

     

     

    My singles approach mainly  handicaps in jump racing class 3 and above with the odd class 4 thrown in. It limits me  , but it narrows things down for me . If I do a lucky 15 I look at the flats class 3 and above races. Don’t have time to look at all of them properly .

  9. 7 hours ago, Villa Chris said:

    4.40 Market Rasen Captain Tom Cat 3/1

    I think this is a good chance for the selection to get his nose back in front. He’s been running average of late but in better races than this and although not as good as he was capable of, I still believe he’s probably the best horse in the race and well handicapped with a 7Ibs claimer aiding his cause.  The odds on favourite is up in class and distance and having watched his last race he made hard work of what was a weak race . Not sure he’ll get away with that here today unless he improves. The selection should be able to dominate this small field from the front which will definitely benefit his style of racing. 
     

    5 points win 

    Fell at the last whilst in second but was already beaten 

    P/L jump season start date 8th October 2022 +105.19

  10. 5 hours ago, Villa Chris said:

    The Big Chap who I made a note of on here a few weeks back runs today at Sligo 3.45. He ended up running on ground too soft for him lto but the going wasn’t changed to soft until post race which was frustrating  for betting purposes. Unfortunately he hasn’t dropped down any in the weights which I thought he would and he’s in a pretty deep race today.  Currently he has his conditions but rain is forecast. Having rated the race up he also only managed second on the ratings so I’m going to show a bit of discipline and leave the race alone as it’s a low level Irish handicap. He is dropping back down to 2.1 mile which I think is a plus and he’s 9/2 currently from 7/1 last night. 
     

    Top 3 

    1 Bigz Belief 2 The Big Chap 3 Staging Post 

    The Big Chap wins 

  11. 2 hours ago, sporting sam said:

    Sha Tin

    1.05

    President's choice

    Each way

    WAR WEAPON 

    win

     

    Top weight and bottom weight drawn in stall 3 and stall 9.

    WAR WEAPON drops in grade since win here in April and holds in theory a strong chance...

    Both on very good marks.

    Hi @The Equaliser

    There is no profit and loss. I make a loss and have a lot of fun doing so.

    Some people benefit very well from some of the selections I've put up.

    ( I think they do anyway).

    You put a lot of work in so fair play mate and you have some cracking days. It’s all a bit of fun isn’t it, not many make a living from it. 

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