Villa Chris
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Posts posted by Villa Chris
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The Big Chap who I made a note of on here a few weeks back runs today at Sligo 3.45. He ended up running on ground too soft for him lto but the going wasn’t changed to soft until post race which was frustrating for betting purposes. Unfortunately he hasn’t dropped down any in the weights which I thought he would and he’s in a pretty deep race today. Currently he has his conditions but rain is forecast. Having rated the race up he also only managed second on the ratings so I’m going to show a bit of discipline and leave the race alone as it’s a low level Irish handicap. He is dropping back down to 2.1 mile which I think is a plus and he’s 9/2 currently from 7/1 last night.
Top 3
1 Bigz Belief 2 The Big Chap 3 Staging Post
- yossa6133, justice, The Equaliser and 2 others
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5 hours ago, Villa Chris said:
Blank
lucky 15 Start date 17th May 2023 - 38.17
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6 hours ago, Villa Chris said:
6.00 Bellewstown
Tronador 9.5 14/1
Sundial 9.31 4/1
These two bit clear of the rest . Tronadors last couple of hurdle runs last year were poor but i believe that was down to distance(3m) and soft ground . His optimum trip is around 2m -2.4m and he runs at 2.1 today and off a very winnable mark. He comes here in good form on the flat at similar distances, so should be primed for this. He also has a good claimer in Ben Harvey taking 5Ibs off so is effectively running off 120. The JP horse who’s favourite Sundial has a very good profile to take this but I’m glad I’ve got the 14/1 shot as my bet.
5 points win
Stayed on well to finish a close 3rd but not good enough today
P/L jump season start date 8th October 2022 +110.19
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4 hours ago, Villa Chris said:
2.25 Sandown
Perotto 9.87 6/1 won
Silent Film 9.72 11/1
Intellogent 9.7 12/1
Orbaan 9.69 40/1
Im using this race to double up with the race above purely because it’s paying the most places on the day with the race above. 1.50 ew doubles = 6 points . Top two with top two above race although Euchen and Dark Jedi both came down in price from yesterday 12/1 and 16/1
6.90 returned as there was a non runner as one of the doubles so it returned a single win
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1 hour ago, Villa Chris said:
2.25 Sandown
Perotto 9.87 6/1 won
Silent Film 9.72 11/1
Intellogent 9.7 12/1
Orbaan 9.69 40/1
Im using this race to double up with the race above purely because it’s paying the most places on the day with the race above. 1.50 ew doubles = 6 points . Top two with top two above race although Euchen and Dark Jedi both came down in price from yesterday 12/1 and 16/1
There’s the first leg in with Perotto winning. Let’s hope I can land the win double
- black rabbit, Bang on and Tedthewolf
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On 7/7/2023 at 1:28 PM, Villa Chris said:
3.15 Haydock
Euchen Glen 9.87 20/1
Dark Jedi 9.74 33/1
Gaassee 9.57 14/1
Maksud 9.59 8/1
Teumassias Fox 9.59 12/1
Looking at the form of the top two they tend to run well one race then not so much the next and that’s a pattern they seem to have. Both seem capable going off their recent form.
2.25 Sandown
Perotto 9.87 6/1 won
Silent Film 9.72 11/1
Intellogent 9.7 12/1
Orbaan 9.69 40/1
Im using this race to double up with the race above purely because it’s paying the most places on the day with the race above. 1.50 ew doubles = 6 points . Top two with top two above race although Euchen and Dark Jedi both came down in price from yesterday 12/1 and 16/1
- calva decoy, black rabbit and Brahmin
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6.00 Bellewstown
Tronador 9.5 14/1
Sundial 9.31 4/1
These two bit clear of the rest . Tronadors last couple of hurdle runs last year were poor but i believe that was down to distance(3m) and soft ground . His optimum trip is around 2m -2.4m and he runs at 2.1 today and off a very winnable mark. He comes here in good form on the flat at similar distances, so should be primed for this. He also has a good claimer in Ben Harvey taking 5Ibs off so is effectively running off 120. The JP horse who’s favourite Sundial has a very good profile to take this but I’m glad I’ve got the 14/1 shot as my bet.
5 points win
- Brahmin and black rabbit
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4 minutes ago, calva decoy said:
Shame about Dalgleish calling it a day , nice little angle when he was sending 1 down to Chelmsford or elsewhere down South for a midweek night race you'd mostly get a good run for your money .
Not sure what the weather's like at courses today but I'd imagine quite a few non runners & going changes , it's just been biblical rain here in East Anglia ☔
Just started raining in south staffs
- The Equaliser and black rabbit
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On 7/6/2023 at 9:29 PM, Villa Chris said:
Newton Abbot 3.50
Coolnaugh Haze 9.37 11/4 4th
Just The Man 9.27 14/1 3rd
Glorious Zoff 8.87 5/2 2nd
Throne Hall 8.83 6/1
Closer tuan the rating suggest I think, and Just The Man is a weird one. I’m pretty certain the winner will come from 1 3 or 4. I’ll stick with Coolnaugh though who’s been running well and a touch unlucky not to have got his head in front. He’s been finishing his races off very well so it’s all about timing with him I think . He’s worse off at weights than a couple of them but hopefully he can time it right because he’ll need every yard of this trip .
Newton Abbot 5.00 D’Jango 10/3
Wexford 7.23 Birchdale 2/1
5 points win each all bog
Shite , D’Jango being one of my all time worst selections I didn’t feel comfortable backing him at all. Live and learn.
P/L jump season start date 8th October 2022 +115.19
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18 hours ago, Villa Chris said:
Newton Abbot 3.50
Coolnaugh Haze 9.37 11/4 4th
Just The Man 9.27 14/1 3rd
Glorious Zoff 8.87 5/2 2nd
Throne Hall 8.83 6/1
Closer tuan the rating suggest I think, and Just The Man is a weird one. I’m pretty certain the winner will come from 1 3 or 4. I’ll stick with Coolnaugh though who’s been running well and a touch unlucky not to have got his head in front. He’s been finishing his races off very well so it’s all about timing with him I think . He’s worse off at weights than a couple of them but hopefully he can time it right because he’ll need every yard of this trip .
Surprised the winner didn’t come from the 3 I mentioned . Just The Man ran well at big odds. I’ve followed Coolnaugh Haze in 3 times now and no success , I expect him to be upped in distance .
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3.15 Haydock
Euchen Glen 9.87 20/1
Dark Jedi 9.74 33/1
Gaassee 9.57 14/1
Maksud 9.59 8/1
Teumassias Fox 9.59 12/1
Looking at the form of the top two they tend to run well one race then not so much the next and that’s a pattern they seem to have. Both seem capable going off their recent form.
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9 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:
Too many negatives for ocean wind for me. Like you say long lay off. Blinkered first time over that trip it will run out of steam and come last, trainer says will come on for the run and a shocking price at 5/1.
Yeah managed to get hold of trainer comments on him . 5/1 for a horse off for over two years is garbage. Would be my selection if fit and ready without the long lay off though. Small fields today and some skinny prices too.
- Zilzalian, kensland and The Equaliser
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8 hours ago, Zilzalian said:
I have been sat pondering the 3:05 at Sandown and noticed Yabir is well odds on which seems very iffy to me it doesn't appear to like softish ground and it was only 6th beaten 10 lengths in the ascot gold cup (not the best gold cup of the last few years) I have been tracking Estacas since it won a bumper at ascot for Adreas Wohler since then it has gone to the Bridgwater stable presumably to go jumping where it won at 20/1 in a very good time. It was 200/1 early doors before going off at 40/1 in the Queen Alexandria (2m5f) beaten 4.5 lengths. The stayers look a bit weak this year the only distance winners in the field are the Charlton gg ex Fanshawe Sleeping Lion which at 12/1 is also not a bad price and Kings horse Raymond Tusk at 20/1 but that 40/1 about Estacas is proper value to my thinking pity there are only 2 places but given the weakness of this race i can see Estacas outstaying this lot so is a reasonable bet, put it this way would you like to put a tenner on Yabir at 4/11 or a fiver (ew for the ladies) on Estacas at 40/1? So for me its a tenner on Estacas to win and a £2.50 RFC with Sleeping Lion.
The one to beat if you could say he was definitely fit would be Ocean Wind I think. Stays and has got some good form in the book. Just that massive lay off. Definitely see your angle on Estacus and looking at the pace angle may take it up on the front along with Ocean Wind . Hollie Doyle’s mount is Interesting, but I’d love to know if Ocean Wind is primed .
Just read trainer said he’ll come on for run .
- Zilzalian, kensland, black rabbit and 2 others
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Newton Abbot 3.50
Coolnaugh Haze 9.37 11/4 4th
Just The Man 9.27 14/1 3rd
Glorious Zoff 8.87 5/2 2nd
Throne Hall 8.83 6/1
Closer tuan the rating suggest I think, and Just The Man is a weird one. I’m pretty certain the winner will come from 1 3 or 4. I’ll stick with Coolnaugh though who’s been running well and a touch unlucky not to have got his head in front. He’s been finishing his races off very well so it’s all about timing with him I think . He’s worse off at weights than a couple of them but hopefully he can time it right because he’ll need every yard of this trip .
Newton Abbot 5.00 D’Jango 10/3
Wexford 7.23 Birchdale 2/1
5 points win each all bog
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2 minutes ago, harry_rag said:
I don’t envisage @The Equaliser marrying a Japanese avant garde artist to be honest mate.
I don’t know, bit of a dark horse I reckon
- The Equaliser, harry_rag and MCLARKE
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1 hour ago, Brahmin said:
just seen the days feature race 'Eclipse' has only 4 runners 😲 ............unbelievable as prize money for 5th £20,000 and 6th £10,000 !!!
I know, I’m thinking of stealing a horse from the local farm to get some much needed prize money
- black rabbit, The Equaliser, Brahmin and 7 others
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22 hours ago, Villa Chris said:
6.15 Tipperary Sharjah 11/8
RP forecast as him down 5/1 favourite which is miles off. He went up at 7/4 and quickly went into 11/8. 14 runners level weights grade 3 race and he’s the class act in the field. Easy money? We shall see, but he still retains plenty of class even at 10.
5 points win
3.48 Perth Captain Zebo 3/1 bog
drops down into a class 4 and is in pretty good form. The favourite will be dangerous if he can show what he’s capable of, but the selection ran a really strong race lto and remains on same mark. This is easier .
5 points win
2nd and 3rd . Disappointed I couldn’t make a small profit with Sharjah who went off at 8/13 but seemed a bit lacklustre in the finish. Apart from Monday I’ve been off work rough with Covid so hopefully there’s a few races to keep me entertained tomorrow.
P/L jump season start date 8th October 2022 +130.19
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Just noticed I Love My Baie in the 2.18 at Perth has set a good time on his hurdle debut. 4.7 seconds fast on what I’d say is good ground but on the easy side of good. Keep an eye on him I think.
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4 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:
How? and what angles should I build in?
The most important ones are can the horse win or be competitive at the distance, can the horse run its race on that particular going. Is the horse good enough to win in that class , is the horse handicapped to win or is he too high in weights. I’ve also started taking into consideration form as well. Pretty basic stuff really and imo there’s not much else that matters.
p.s I sometimes take into account courses but not often
- black rabbit and The Equaliser
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Just now, The Equaliser said:
Ratings seem to be a big puzzle to me. Race Advisor do them. Horseracebase do them. None of them seems to make any sense to me at all. Worse still, they all provide lots of losers
Yep I used to be the same regarding figures but I find the more you put into horse racing the easier numbers are . It’s a numbers game after all. Ignore those sites do your own it’s better
Racing Chat - Sunday 9th July
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
4.40 Market Rasen Captain Tom Cat 3/1
I think this is a good chance for the selection to get his nose back in front. He’s been running average of late but in better races than this and although not as good as he was capable of, I still believe he’s probably the best horse in the race and well handicapped with a 7Ibs claimer aiding his cause. The odds on favourite is up in class and distance and having watched his last race he made hard work of what was a weak race . Not sure he’ll get away with that here today unless he improves. The selection should be able to dominate this small field from the front which will definitely benefit his style of racing.
5 points win