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Villa Chris

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Posts posted by Villa Chris

    Racing Chat- Saturday 3rd June

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    21 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

    This Saturday sees the running of the fastest horse race in the world, the Epsom Dash. The 5-furlong race is all downhill until the last 100 yards. The current world record of 53.69 seconds was set by Stone of Folca in 2012.

    The race is open to horses aged three years or older. 20 go to post and off time is 15.20.

    Most bookmakers are offering up to 6 places which makes this an excellent betting proposition.

     

    I have looked at the statistics over the last 9 years and these are my key conclusions.

    It is best to keep clear of those at the top of the betting. Just 2 winners from 64 runners have been in the top 7 in the betting forecast. The remainder have recorded 6 wins from 48 runs with a profit of 98 points.

    Claiming jockeys have a poor record with no wins from 26 attempts.

    Horses bred in Ireland have the best record with 5 wins from 62 runs and a profit of 50 points.

     

    3 horses meet these criteria.

     

    ZARZYNI 16/1

    CAME FROM THE DARK 16/1

    SAMPERS SEVEN 11/1

     

    I suggest backing these each way with bookmakers offering 5/6 places.

    Interesting as I’ve got on the ratings 

    1 Came from The Dark 9.2 

    2 Mountain Peak/Zarzyni level on 9.09

    Racing Chat- Saturday 3rd June

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted · Edited by Villa Chris

    Stratford 6.50 Shantou Express 2/1

    Not the strongest of races and he won this last year off 127 where as he runs off 122 today which indicates a drop in form. Ran average in a class 2 last time out in a deeper race. This is a lot easier and everything is there to suit . 
     

    Stratford 8.20 Coup De Pinceau 4/1

    Ran well last time out and hopefully can hold his form today off the same mark over this long trip where  he usually stays well with Harry Cobden on board . Not sure the favourite will stay and the other chief threat Tommie Beau has a 7Ibs penalty to contend with which basically has him running off a career high mark and is not sure to back up his win last time out. I think the selection offers a bit of value in this 4 horse race. 

    5 points win both 

    Racing Chat - June 1st

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    14 hours ago, Villa Chris said:

    Market Rasen 7.10 Ashington 4/1

    Market Rasen 8.15 Victory Echo 7/4 

    It’s hard to get away from the first two in the betting in the 8.15 race. Victory Echo is in good form with wins at 3m and is now upped to 3.4 miles. He seems to travel well and his jumping is usually slick, also likes to front run and it looks like he will set the pace without no hassle from the other 4 runners. I’m hoping if ridden right he can take the others out of their comfort zone. Coup De Pinceau is just behind on ratings and ran well last time out. 
     

    5 points win both 

    Victory Echo won very well 

    Rule 4 with the non runner 

    3.13 profit on the day 

    P/L jump season start date 8th October 2022 +75.95

    Racing Chat - June 1st

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Market Rasen 7.10 Ashington 4/1

    Market Rasen 8.15 Victory Echo 7/4 

    It’s hard to get away from the first two in the betting in the 8.15 race. Victory Echo is in good form with wins at 3m and is now upped to 3.4 miles. He seems to travel well and his jumping is usually slick, also likes to front run and it looks like he will set the pace without no hassle from the other 4 runners. I’m hoping if ridden right he can take the others out of their comfort zone. Coup De Pinceau is just behind on ratings and ran well last time out. 
     

    5 points win both 

    Racing Chat-Wednesday 31st May.

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    14 hours ago, Villa Chris said:

    8.50 Cartmel Pyramid Place 15/2

    My top two in this are the selection and also City Derby. City Derby is proven at the distance and the selection isn’t, which is a slight concern , but everything points to Pyramid Place needing this extra distance. He’s showed some decent form and comes out top on ratings. 
     

    5 points win 

    Won 30 points profit rule 4 . City Derby came second so got the first two correct with the ratings 

    P/L jump season start date 8th October 2022 +72.82

    Hugh cannot be serious!! Can He?

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Never thought about going against him for value purposes. Pretty obvious really whatever races he tips in, do your own calculations and with a bit of luck you end up with a different selection and you get value because his tips have moved the market in your favour. Only problem is I’m at work when he puts them up. 

    Racing Chat-Monday 29th May.

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    7 hours ago, Villa Chris said:

    Ballinrobe 6.30 

    Peregrine Run 12/1

    Won in the UK off 147 top weight beating the decent Tea Clipper on its last run. Runs off 144 in Ireland today plus 7Ibs claimer so effectively 137 . 13 years of age and first run after a break but good record fresh. Seems to still have a touch of class about him. The price is worth a shot .

    The old boy didn’t have the legs 

    15 points profit on day 

    P/L jump season start date 8th October 2022 +42.82

    DAILY LUCKY 15

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    7 hours ago, Villa Chris said:

    Going to do some jump selections. Two of them are 2nd on my ratings but better prices than top rated . All at Cartmel .

    2.55  My Bobby Dazzler 7/1

    3.30 Irish Prophecy 7/1

    4.05 Return Ticket 6/1

    4.40 Gaelic Coast 11/2 

    5.25 staked £1602.34 potential returns 

    Return Ticket 7/1 won to break even on this bet . The lucky 15 will become both jumps and flats instead of just flats from now on. Will be kept separate from my profit/loss singles bets on jump racing only

     

     

     lucky 15 Start date 17th May 2023 - 15.45

    Racing Chat-Monday 29th May.

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    I thought Irish Prophecy ran very well after a break with 3.5 stretching him too much and him weakening three out then refusing the last . Will come down a few Ibs for that and will be fitter for the run, so I’ll be keeping an eye and where he goes next . Hopefully something between 3m and 3.2m and not too much of a high class race.

    Racing Chat-Monday 29th May.

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    8 hours ago, Villa Chris said:

    Decent jumps card at Cartmel today 

    2.55 Scrum Diddly 3/1 2nd

    3.30 Irish Prophecy 7/1 bog 

    4.05 Return Ticket 5/1 bog won 7/1

    4.40 De Barley Basket 3/1 3rd 

    5 points win each 

     

    Well Return Ticket got me out the crap with the win as I messed up calculating the 3.30. The winner Dee Star was my top rated by 0.02 of a point over Irish Prophecy so apologies there. It is what it is though and it’s a losing bet which is annoying.  15 points profit so far with one race to go in Ireland. 

    Racing Chat-Monday 29th May.

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted · Edited by Villa Chris

    10 minutes ago, yossa6133 said:

    Organdi 3:30 Cartmel (18/1). This one has drifted like a barge but I thought she had a decent chance when I looked through last night. Finished ahead of Irish Prophecy at Worcester and Warwick (again gets 3lb here). One of the few that likes fast ground and hopefully the low-key return at Aintree was to get ready for this. First try at this kind of trip but should get it round here.

    Villa Chris has gone for Irish Prophecy and will no doubt beat me again 😁

    Hard race to predict purely because of the distance and it’s quite competitive. The favourite is flying at the minute but hasn’t got much in hand regarding his mark at the age of 10 imo but we’ll see. Good luck again Yossa .

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