shrewd.

Sunderland vs Portsmouth -- BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE -- (Portsmouth avg. 2.1 xG away from home; Sunderland avg. ~2 xG at home. Looks a recipe for chances/goals) [19/20 Skybet]


Aaron Martin to score anytime (for Harrogate town)  -- Just the two goals thus far but, seems to be their Firmino; creative & associative numbers are v. high and his underlying scoring numbers suggest he's due a few goals soon. A very juicy anytime price at 13/5, imo. Harrogate creating bucket loads away in recent games so could & should get chances.. [13/5 Ppowers/Betfair]



Singles + 6.87 double @ Paddypowers

Fiorentina vs Udinese --- Kevin Lasagne to score anytime - trading at 11/4 in various places  --- NAP
 
Going into last week, there were two players on >2xG but 0 goals; Ekambi (Lyon) and Lasagna. Ekambi bagged a brace last weekend, making Kevin the only current player in top flight European football with >2xG and 0 goals. Only a matter of time. Very nice anytime scorer price away to a side who concede chances.

Well, a fun watch ? Brazilian single comes good, and another promising system victory.

What's most promising was there was just shy of a bonkers 30 shots in the game (away side naturally less as they were happy taking the early away lead), which indicates the match identification is on the right track. Underlying numbers. Trust the process.
 

Just trying something out, just a little idea.
I'm going to try and identify matches in which both teams are underachieving offensively & overachieving defensively according to xG (expected goals) data, and see how they do in the 'both teams to score' market. If there's more than one selection, then it could be worth combining for multis... and who knows?
The rule:
- Both teams must be overperforming xGA (expected goals against) and underperforming xG (expected goals scored) by at least 2.0 respectively.
 
*Note the rules could be tinkered/altered depending on system results/performance.
 
What is xG?
Well, xG is a data analysis recording that records a player or teams shots/chances whilst considering several variables to determine how likely was it to have scored/conceded. Variables such as the location (most crucial), the angle the pass came from, the shot type (for example, headers will accumulate lower goal probability/xG than a strike across the floor from the same position, by default), how many players were in front of the shot, etc. It's most generally used to get a better picture as to how sustainable a teams form is (negative or positive) or players goal run - or indeed, lack of. Basically, football's law of averages. 

I touched on the location being the main factor. It's common knowledge the clearer cut chances you create or surrender, the likelier you are to score or concede. From the below image we have it split into 6 main zones, ordered from 1 to 6 in order of where you want to shoot from. Zone 1 & 2 are the "ideal" zones; short and central. Shots/chances from here will obviously accumulate the highest xG figures (measured 0-100; 100 probably being a ball sat dead on the goal-line with the keeper in a coma; I've yet to see a 100/100 xG chance - penalties have a 0.75/100 probability for reference). The 6 zones; wide, far and acute - will accumulate lottery-esque xG figures. Any team who scores from here should fine their keeper a weeks wages.





A team or player who's under-performing underlying xG numbers generally are creating/getting chances in the 1/2/3 zones, but for whatever reason, aren't scoring. Whether that's due to superman keepers, slack finishing or rotten luck - they're not scoring as many as the quality of their chances/chance creation suggests.

Conversely, a team who are "over-performing" xGA (expected goals against) are generally getting out of jail a lot, and surrender more high quality chances than their goals-against stat may suggest.

My logic behind using this angle for a 'Both Teams To Score' market system is if you find 2 teams in the same match who are have been getting lucky defensively and unlucky offensively, it has the recipe for goals.
 
Stay tuned.
 
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Bet landed nice and early in the first half. Lovely aggressive football on display.

Manchester United to score in both halves @ 29/20 William Hill 
Strong team out, think it's a fair price. Bournemouth defeat probably drew greater significance to this game. EL their only realistic hope at CL football at this rate. Convincing performance needed.

Manchester United to score in both halves @ 29/20 William Hill 
Strong team out, think it's a fair price. Bournemouth defeat probably drew greater significance to this game. EL their only realistic hope at CL football at this rate. Convincing performance needed.

Caught a little bit off guard by the 5.55 Barca kick-off, so no real time for proper write ups/previews but studying was done.
 
Barca vs. Slavia Praha - Barca to score 2+ goals.     I like the dynamic of this XI named. I think Griezmann/Suarez/Messi is too ball-hungry and pedestrian. Putting Griezmann down the middle flanked by Dembele & Ablba, with Vidal and Semedo overlapping the opposite side should be too much.
Zenit vs. Leipzig - Both teams to score.    Should be an open game. Leipzig a very innovative, expansive side and don't particularly change whether they're at home or away. Should be plenty of chances.
Dortmund vs. Inter - Inter or the draw.    I'd compare this fixture to Conte's Chelsea vs. Klopp's LFC to a degree. Home side very offensive and will rely on the atmosphere, but Conte and his 5-3-2 are the ultimate party poopers.
Liverpool vs. Genk - Liverpool to score 2+ goals    Like some on here, quite keen on a Liverpool performance. They need a result here, and at Anfield, should be too much for Genk over 90 mins.
 
Fourfold pays 5.03 at Betfair

Very promising start to the system. A full house ? Hope some of you followed me and got some joy too.

Very promising start to the system. A full house ? Hope some of you followed me and got some joy too.

To my surprising joy, as I didn't see the "If your team go 2-0 up, we pay" special, Paddy's have already settled my nerves and paid out ?
 

 
Good luck everyone with in-running bets, and thanks for the warm welcome. 

Hey guys! New to the site. Haven't regularly punted in quite a while, but the taste for a little weekend flutter has returned again. Felt I needed to sign up to a forum, as if I'm not articulating & putting my thoughts into black and white, I can be a little lazy/loose - and if I'm a little lazy/loose, then the bookies are sure to win - and we don't want that to happen, do we? ?   So my first post is hardly much of a "tip", but I think Manchester United are nailed on to brush aside Norwich on tomorrow afternoon, and seeing them quoted around 4/5 looks generous to me.   Ole's side have seen their best performances this season come when playing possession based teams; when the emphasis isn't so much on trying to unlock a stubborn deep-block, but just having a compact settled-shape off the ball & pressing aggressively. They beat Leicester & Chelsea this season with less of the ball, and put in, what I thought, was a very good performance vs. Liverpool last weekend with around 35% possession.   Norwich execute a patient, position-play focused possession game with strong emphasis on building from the back (it's naive, if you ask me, but anyway). Only the "big 6", Leicester & Graham Potter's Brighton pass the ball more on average than Norwich, and only 6 sides (City, Chelsea, Leicester, Spurs, Liverpool & Brighton) average more passes-per-min-of-possession; so they're zipping it around at a brisk tempo - the  only issue is, they predominantly do it in risky, almost Louis van Gaal-esque deep areas:     And to add to that, they're playing against a side who before the Liverpool game, only allowed opponents on average to construct ~8 passes before forcing a possession turnover. United have a lot of effective/capable pressing players in D.James, Rashford, Lingard, Pereira, Fred, McTominay, Wan-Bissaka (his pressing intensity really impressed me vs. Andy Robertson), etc., most of whom, are expected to start, and will be licking their lips at conceding territorial possession and waiting to pounce on an error; specific pressing trigger(s), a lazy pass, etc.   I just think it's a match made in heaven for United. With the recent mood lift courtesy of the solid Liverpool performance, followed by their first away win in a long time on Thursday, on top of the plus of the returning Martial, who may lack the pressing intensity of most of the aforementioned, but brings much missed quality in and around the box;  and against a side who are foot of the table, low on confidence, and despite their "philosophy" playing right into United's hands stylistically, they're likely to be too stubborn to change -  so I'm more than happy to have a substantial single on some of that just-shy-of-evens price floating about.   Good luck if you play or add to your accas.   Hope I can contribute positively in the future. Used to contribute to a forum called Racecaller a few years back.

BOL @shrewd.

Anthony Martial to score anytime (For Manchester United vs. Bournemouth)
Ah, the (dreaded) lunch-time fixture. Well, who cares for superstition? Certainly not a gambler... right?!  Manchester United clicked into gear vs. Norwich last weekend, as expected, and Anthony Martial's presence was pivotal to that. Performance wise, he has grabbed this opportunity playing down the middle with both hands. He takes it in and holds it up well, has great awareness for runners and players around him, has nice link-play & has improved his off-the-ball movement too - he has just fit the centre forward role like a glove. He probably should've had 4 goals at the weekend, and that's no exaggeration. When he's in the side, Manchester United look like scoring. He makes everyone around him better and as we've seen vs. Chelsea, Wolves & Norwich, he can get on the end of them too.
 
Portsmouth to win draw-no-bet (vs. Oxford United)
Backing 16th placed Portsmouth to get a result at home to 5th & playoff pushing Oxford, although with a slight itch of caution, hence the draw-no-bet market. The underlying numbers suggest Pompey have been quite unlucky this season, and by the law of averages, should climb the table quite soon. Predominantly two 4-2-3-1 sides who both like to have the ball, but the home side seem to be more content to concede possession and control spaces when necessary, and I think those spells could prove the difference tomorrow. They've racked up two recent home wins vs. Lincoln & Bolton with 43% & 44% possession respectively, with solid pressing numbers (they only allow opponents to construct 8 passes before forcing a turnover) so far this season. I think all in all; a decent stylistic match up on top of being unbeaten at home this season, I fancy them to get a positive result tomorrow!
 
Newport/Salford both teams to score 
This should be quite an open game. With the home side missing their central midfielder Labadie, they could switch to a 5-3-2/3-4-1-2 variation as they've done at times this season, which would be a big plus for this selection when looking back at Salford's 2-2 draw vs. Morcambe earlier this season when they recorded 27 shots with an insane near 5 xG; so they match up very well up with this type of shape should Michael Flynn opt for it. Newport don't concede too many goals, but according to data, they've rode their luck a tad defensively, and could find themselves in a game tomorrow with the Class of 92's club.
 
Anthony Martial to score anytime Portsmouth to win Newport/Salford both teams to score  
The treble pays 9.69 at Marathon bet and around 8.80 generally.
 
EDIT: Sorry I just clocked this is PL only. Hope my treble's ok here, can be moved elsewhere if necessary!

Outstanding first post @shrewd. 

to Punters Lounge @shrewd   

Hey guys! New to the site. Haven't regularly punted in quite a while, but the taste for a little weekend flutter has returned again. Felt I needed to sign up to a forum, as if I'm not articulating & putting my thoughts into black and white, I can be a little lazy/loose - and if I'm a little lazy/loose, then the bookies are sure to win - and we don't want that to happen, do we? ?   So my first post is hardly much of a "tip", but I think Manchester United are nailed on to brush aside Norwich on tomorrow afternoon, and seeing them quoted around 4/5 looks generous to me.   Ole's side have seen their best performances this season come when playing possession based teams; when the emphasis isn't so much on trying to unlock a stubborn deep-block, but just having a compact settled-shape off the ball & pressing aggressively. They beat Leicester & Chelsea this season with less of the ball, and put in, what I thought, was a very good performance vs. Liverpool last weekend with around 35% possession.   Norwich execute a patient, position-play focused possession game with strong emphasis on building from the back (it's naive, if you ask me, but anyway). Only the "big 6", Leicester & Graham Potter's Brighton pass the ball more on average than Norwich, and only 6 sides (City, Chelsea, Leicester, Spurs, Liverpool & Brighton) average more passes-per-min-of-possession; so they're zipping it around at a brisk tempo - the  only issue is, they predominantly do it in risky, almost Louis van Gaal-esque deep areas:     And to add to that, they're playing against a side who before the Liverpool game, only allowed opponents on average to construct ~8 passes before forcing a possession turnover. United have a lot of effective/capable pressing players in D.James, Rashford, Lingard, Pereira, Fred, McTominay, Wan-Bissaka (his pressing intensity really impressed me vs. Andy Robertson), etc., most of whom, are expected to start, and will be licking their lips at conceding territorial possession and waiting to pounce on an error; specific pressing trigger(s), a lazy pass, etc.   I just think it's a match made in heaven for United. With the recent mood lift courtesy of the solid Liverpool performance, followed by their first away win in a long time on Thursday, on top of the plus of the returning Martial, who may lack the pressing intensity of most of the aforementioned, but brings much missed quality in and around the box;  and against a side who are foot of the table, low on confidence, and despite their "philosophy" playing right into United's hands stylistically, they're likely to be too stubborn to change -  so I'm more than happy to have a substantial single on some of that just-shy-of-evens price floating about.   Good luck if you play or add to your accas.   Hope I can contribute positively in the future. Used to contribute to a forum called Racecaller a few years back.

Hey guys! New to the site. Haven't regularly punted in quite a while, but the taste for a little weekend flutter has returned again. Felt I needed to sign up to a forum, as if I'm not articulating & putting my thoughts into black and white, I can be a little lazy/loose - and if I'm a little lazy/loose, then the bookies are sure to win - and we don't want that to happen, do we? ?   So my first post is hardly much of a "tip", but I think Manchester United are nailed on to brush aside Norwich on tomorrow afternoon, and seeing them quoted around 4/5 looks generous to me.   Ole's side have seen their best performances this season come when playing possession based teams; when the emphasis isn't so much on trying to unlock a stubborn deep-block, but just having a compact settled-shape off the ball & pressing aggressively. They beat Leicester & Chelsea this season with less of the ball, and put in, what I thought, was a very good performance vs. Liverpool last weekend with around 35% possession.   Norwich execute a patient, position-play focused possession game with strong emphasis on building from the back (it's naive, if you ask me, but anyway). Only the "big 6", Leicester & Graham Potter's Brighton pass the ball more on average than Norwich, and only 6 sides (City, Chelsea, Leicester, Spurs, Liverpool & Brighton) average more passes-per-min-of-possession; so they're zipping it around at a brisk tempo - the  only issue is, they predominantly do it in risky, almost Louis van Gaal-esque deep areas:     And to add to that, they're playing against a side who before the Liverpool game, only allowed opponents on average to construct ~8 passes before forcing a possession turnover. United have a lot of effective/capable pressing players in D.James, Rashford, Lingard, Pereira, Fred, McTominay, Wan-Bissaka (his pressing intensity really impressed me vs. Andy Robertson), etc., most of whom, are expected to start, and will be licking their lips at conceding territorial possession and waiting to pounce on an error; specific pressing trigger(s), a lazy pass, etc.   I just think it's a match made in heaven for United. With the recent mood lift courtesy of the solid Liverpool performance, followed by their first away win in a long time on Thursday, on top of the plus of the returning Martial, who may lack the pressing intensity of most of the aforementioned, but brings much missed quality in and around the box;  and against a side who are foot of the table, low on confidence, and despite their "philosophy" playing right into United's hands stylistically, they're likely to be too stubborn to change -  so I'm more than happy to have a substantial single on some of that just-shy-of-evens price floating about.   Good luck if you play or add to your accas.   Hope I can contribute positively in the future. Used to contribute to a forum called Racecaller a few years back.

Hey guys! New to the site. Haven't regularly punted in quite a while, but the taste for a little weekend flutter has returned again. Felt I needed to sign up to a forum, as if I'm not articulating & putting my thoughts into black and white, I can be a little lazy/loose - and if I'm a little lazy/loose, then the bookies are sure to win - and we don't want that to happen, do we? ?   So my first post is hardly much of a "tip", but I think Manchester United are nailed on to brush aside Norwich on tomorrow afternoon, and seeing them quoted around 4/5 looks generous to me.   Ole's side have seen their best performances this season come when playing possession based teams; when the emphasis isn't so much on trying to unlock a stubborn deep-block, but just having a compact settled-shape off the ball & pressing aggressively. They beat Leicester & Chelsea this season with less of the ball, and put in, what I thought, was a very good performance vs. Liverpool last weekend with around 35% possession.   Norwich execute a patient, position-play focused possession game with strong emphasis on building from the back (it's naive, if you ask me, but anyway). Only the "big 6", Leicester & Graham Potter's Brighton pass the ball more on average than Norwich, and only 6 sides (City, Chelsea, Leicester, Spurs, Liverpool & Brighton) average more passes-per-min-of-possession; so they're zipping it around at a brisk tempo - the  only issue is, they predominantly do it in risky, almost Louis van Gaal-esque deep areas:     And to add to that, they're playing against a side who before the Liverpool game, only allowed opponents on average to construct ~8 passes before forcing a possession turnover. United have a lot of effective/capable pressing players in D.James, Rashford, Lingard, Pereira, Fred, McTominay, Wan-Bissaka (his pressing intensity really impressed me vs. Andy Robertson), etc., most of whom, are expected to start, and will be licking their lips at conceding territorial possession and waiting to pounce on an error; specific pressing trigger(s), a lazy pass, etc.   I just think it's a match made in heaven for United. With the recent mood lift courtesy of the solid Liverpool performance, followed by their first away win in a long time on Thursday, on top of the plus of the returning Martial, who may lack the pressing intensity of most of the aforementioned, but brings much missed quality in and around the box;  and against a side who are foot of the table, low on confidence, and despite their "philosophy" playing right into United's hands stylistically, they're likely to be too stubborn to change -  so I'm more than happy to have a substantial single on some of that just-shy-of-evens price floating about.   Good luck if you play or add to your accas.   Hope I can contribute positively in the future. Used to contribute to a forum called Racecaller a few years back.

Hey guys! New to the site. Haven't regularly punted in quite a while, but the taste for a little weekend flutter has returned again. Felt I needed to sign up to a forum, as if I'm not articulating & putting my thoughts into black and white, I can be a little lazy/loose - and if I'm a little lazy/loose, then the bookies are sure to win - and we don't want that to happen, do we? ?   So my first post is hardly much of a "tip", but I think Manchester United are nailed on to brush aside Norwich on tomorrow afternoon, and seeing them quoted around 4/5 looks generous to me.   Ole's side have seen their best performances this season come when playing possession based teams; when the emphasis isn't so much on trying to unlock a stubborn deep-block, but just having a compact settled-shape off the ball & pressing aggressively. They beat Leicester & Chelsea this season with less of the ball, and put in, what I thought, was a very good performance vs. Liverpool last weekend with around 35% possession.   Norwich execute a patient, position-play focused possession game with strong emphasis on building from the back (it's naive, if you ask me, but anyway). Only the "big 6", Leicester & Graham Potter's Brighton pass the ball more on average than Norwich, and only 6 sides (City, Chelsea, Leicester, Spurs, Liverpool & Brighton) average more passes-per-min-of-possession; so they're zipping it around at a brisk tempo - the  only issue is, they predominantly do it in risky, almost Louis van Gaal-esque deep areas:     And to add to that, they're playing against a side who before the Liverpool game, only allowed opponents on average to construct ~8 passes before forcing a possession turnover. United have a lot of effective/capable pressing players in D.James, Rashford, Lingard, Pereira, Fred, McTominay, Wan-Bissaka (his pressing intensity really impressed me vs. Andy Robertson), etc., most of whom, are expected to start, and will be licking their lips at conceding territorial possession and waiting to pounce on an error; specific pressing trigger(s), a lazy pass, etc.   I just think it's a match made in heaven for United. With the recent mood lift courtesy of the solid Liverpool performance, followed by their first away win in a long time on Thursday, on top of the plus of the returning Martial, who may lack the pressing intensity of most of the aforementioned, but brings much missed quality in and around the box;  and against a side who are foot of the table, low on confidence, and despite their "philosophy" playing right into United's hands stylistically, they're likely to be too stubborn to change -  so I'm more than happy to have a substantial single on some of that just-shy-of-evens price floating about.   Good luck if you play or add to your accas.   Hope I can contribute positively in the future. Used to contribute to a forum called Racecaller a few years back.

Hey guys! New to the site. Haven't regularly punted in quite a while, but the taste for a little weekend flutter has returned again. Felt I needed to sign up to a forum, as if I'm not articulating & putting my thoughts into black and white, I can be a little lazy/loose - and if I'm a little lazy/loose, then the bookies are sure to win - and we don't want that to happen, do we? ?   So my first post is hardly much of a "tip", but I think Manchester United are nailed on to brush aside Norwich on tomorrow afternoon, and seeing them quoted around 4/5 looks generous to me.   Ole's side have seen their best performances this season come when playing possession based teams; when the emphasis isn't so much on trying to unlock a stubborn deep-block, but just having a compact settled-shape off the ball & pressing aggressively. They beat Leicester & Chelsea this season with less of the ball, and put in, what I thought, was a very good performance vs. Liverpool last weekend with around 35% possession.   Norwich execute a patient, position-play focused possession game with strong emphasis on building from the back (it's naive, if you ask me, but anyway). Only the "big 6", Leicester & Graham Potter's Brighton pass the ball more on average than Norwich, and only 6 sides (City, Chelsea, Leicester, Spurs, Liverpool & Brighton) average more passes-per-min-of-possession; so they're zipping it around at a brisk tempo - the  only issue is, they predominantly do it in risky, almost Louis van Gaal-esque deep areas:     And to add to that, they're playing against a side who before the Liverpool game, only allowed opponents on average to construct ~8 passes before forcing a possession turnover. United have a lot of effective/capable pressing players in D.James, Rashford, Lingard, Pereira, Fred, McTominay, Wan-Bissaka (his pressing intensity really impressed me vs. Andy Robertson), etc., most of whom, are expected to start, and will be licking their lips at conceding territorial possession and waiting to pounce on an error; specific pressing trigger(s), a lazy pass, etc.   I just think it's a match made in heaven for United. With the recent mood lift courtesy of the solid Liverpool performance, followed by their first away win in a long time on Thursday, on top of the plus of the returning Martial, who may lack the pressing intensity of most of the aforementioned, but brings much missed quality in and around the box;  and against a side who are foot of the table, low on confidence, and despite their "philosophy" playing right into United's hands stylistically, they're likely to be too stubborn to change -  so I'm more than happy to have a substantial single on some of that just-shy-of-evens price floating about.   Good luck if you play or add to your accas.   Hope I can contribute positively in the future. Used to contribute to a forum called Racecaller a few years back.