cjsmith1972

Hail Mary on the last day of the month !
4 winning trebles - today +346.75
Month +149.38

6 winning doubles
today +147.63
month - +87.63

Turfway each ways,
1055 Legend Of The Nile 17/2.   Unp
1125 Vivi's In Front 9/1.  Unp
0055 Summerintahoe 22/1.   1st  👍 🍺🍺
bet365.

4th  @. 3rd.          Returns  £183.60.

A nice return with a 25/1 & 20/1 winners ( r4 10p) and 66/1 placed.  Magical Spirit ran well but could only mange 6th i'm a bit annoyed because it was close between it and 4th placed  summerghand   choose the wrong one would have been nice to have got the 4 placed  however it is a very decent 113,38 pts returned

Parx 826 Hide The Ransom 14/1  1st.   👍👍
ew skybet 4pl.
                    wins @  16/1   😊

Woodbine : 
931- HONOR D LADY 7/1 bet365 ( 3 places ) 2nd 👍
1003- LUCKY SCORE 12/1 bet365 ( 3 places ) 1st 👍
1035- TYSON 6/1 bet365 ( 3 places ) 1st 👍
cracking night , may treat myself to some maple syrup tomorrow 😁

Now we’re into Monty Python 4 Yorkshiremen territory! Anyone for a paying tax on stakes v on winnings debate? I always paid it upfront.

Updated analysis. A lot of ups and downs and a different conclusion to the last update.

Again, still pleasantly surprised that overall I am close to breakeven at LSP. Adding on the bonuses this equates to a long term ROI of 9%.
The sweet spot is now 10/1 to 20/1 with a LSP of 45% and with bonuses 71%.
A couple of concerns.
1. There are still a relatively small number of selections in the 10/1 - 20/1 range.
2. The best returns are coming from the TV selections with a LSP of 7%. For these selections I have simply taken the horse with the shortest odds that is best priced on oddschecker. This return is far better than the 5% loss of my system selections which are selected after many hours of painstaking analysis !
I'll plod on a little longer before starting to reduce the number of selections and increasing my stake.
 

WON +80.00
this month + 160.00
From 1st Jan 2023 (10 bets, 6 wins)+ 375.00

There has been a discussion about lucky 15s on the daily threads with @Zilzalianhaving a fair bit of success with these bets.
4 of us have decided to submit 1 entry each day and put them in an each way lucky 15 with BET365.
Today's selections are :-
Southwell 7.15 SIX STRINGS 11/1 @BBBC
Southwell 6.45 RISHES BAAR 150/1 @Zilzalian
Southwell 5.45 SWEET FORTUNE 12/1 @LEE-GRAYS
Ludlow 2.00 COTTON END 25/1 @MCLARKE
 

5yo selections
Lucky 15 in bold
COURSE TIME  SELECTION ODDS  Huntingdon 12.05 Loup De Maulde 100/30 Newcastle 12.50 Chemical Warfare 10/1 Huntingdon 1.15 Crystal Moon 5/1 Limerick 1.33 Summer Melody 11/2 Market Rasen 1.40 Duke Of Luckley 9/2 Kempton 1.55 Constitution Hill 1/7 Down Royal 1.58 Our Patron Saint 66/1 Newcastle 2.00 Twoshotsoftequila 12/1 Limerick 2.40 Adamantly Chosen 16/1 Leopardstown 2.55 Alice Avril 20/1 Kempton 3.05 Hudson De Grugy 14/1 Wolverhampton 4.45 Let Her Loose 25/1 Wolverhampton 5.20 Phoenix Aquilus 8/1

Sunday 25/12/2022
No Racing
Happy Christmas everyone
Have a good un

This weekend’s big handicap is the AIS December Gold Cup Chase at Cheltenham. This premier handicap is run over 2 miles, 4 furlongs and 127 yards and is open to horses aged 4 or older. Off time is 1.50 and 15 go to post.
Frodon has won this twice before going on to win at the Cheltenham festival. Coole Cody won this last year before going on to win at the festival at odds of 22/1.  
William Hill offer each-way terms of 5 places which makes the race an excellent betting proposition.
AGAINST THE ODDS
I have looked at the statistics over the last 9 seasons and these are my key conclusions.
1.       It is best to side with those horses in the middle of the market. Those horses with forecast odds less than 8/1 have a record of 0 wins from 29 runners. Those with odds greater than 12/1 have a record of 0 from 41. All the winners have been between 8/1 and 12/1 with 9 winners from 49 runners.  
2.       It is difficult to carry high weights in this race. Horses carrying more than 10st 10lb have 3 wins from 60 attempts compared to 6 from 40 for the lower weights.
3.       Experienced horses perform better than their less experienced opponents. Horses who have run more than 18 times have recorded 4 wins from 33 attempts compared to 5 from 87 for their less experienced opponents.
4.       It is helpful to have had a recent run. Only 1 horse (from 40 attempts) has won this after a lay-off of more than 28 days.
Only 1 horse matches these criteria, DEYRANN DE CARJACJ, available at 14/1.  
Further statistics that may prove relevant.
As already indicated favourites have a poor record (0 from 9). For 2nd favourites it is 0 from 14.
The ideal age is 8, with 3 wins from 33 attempts.
Irish bred horses have the best record with 5 wins from 53 runners.
Paul Nicholls has the best record in this race with 5 winners in the last 13 years. This year he saddles Simply The Betts and Il Ridito.

This weekend’s big handicap is the Becher Handicap Chase, run over the Grand National course at Aintree. This premier handicap is run over 3 miles and 2 furlongs and is open to horses aged 6 or older. It should be a good spectacle to watch as there are 21 fences for the horses to overcome. Off time is 2.05 and 23 go to post.
It is not a good guide for Cheltenham but 2 winners have gone on to win the Grand National, Amberleigh House and Silver Birch.
Many bookmakers offer each-way terms of 6 places which makes the race an excellent betting proposition.
WATCH THE CALORIES
I have looked at the statistics over the last 9 seasons and these are my key conclusions.
1.       It is difficult to lug heavy weights around this course. There have been 64 horses that have carried more than 10st 12lbs and only 1 has won. Lighter weights have a record of 8 from 108.         
2.       Horses bred in Ireland have a poor record with just 2 wins from 94 attempts compared to 7 from 78 for those horses bred in other countries.
3.       This is not a good race for fancied runners. Horses with forecast odds of 16/1 or higher have a record of 5 wins from 84 runners compared to 4 from 88 for their more fancied opponents.
Just 2 horses fit these criteria, DIDERO VALLIS (22/1) and PERCUSSION (18/1).  
I suggest backing these each way with bookmakers who are offering 5/6 places.
Further statistics that may prove relevant.
French bred horses have a particularly good record with 5 wins from 51 runs. DIDERO VALLIS is bred in France, PERCUSSION in the UK.
Horses ideally need time to recover from their last run. Horses that last ran less than 22 days ago have a record of 0 wins from 36 attempts. DIDERO VALLIS last ran 13 days ago, PERCUSSION 28.
Relatively unexposed horses have a decent record with 6 winners from 90 runners compared to 3 from 82 for their more experienced rivals. DIDERO VALLIS has run 31 times, PERCUSSION 12.
The ideal age is 9, with 4 wins from 43 attempts. DIDERO VALLIS is 9, PERCUSSION is 7.
Gavin Sheehan, who rides PERCUSSION, won this race in 2017 with Blaklion.
Nigel Twiston-Davies has the best record in this race with 6 winners in the last 30 years. This year he saddles Fantastikas.

This weekend’s big handicap is the Coral Gold Cup Handicap Chase at Newbury. To us old timers this will always be known as the Hennessy, 1st run in 1957. This premier handicap is run over 3 miles and 2 furlongs and is open to horses aged 4 or older. Off time is 3.05 and 16 go to post.
It is often a good guide for Cheltenham. Native River won this race in 2016 before going on to win that year’s Cheltenham Gold Cup. 4 other horses have been placed in this race before going on to win at the Cheltenham Festival.
Many Clouds won this in 2014 before going on to win that year’s Grand National.
Most bookmakers offer each-way terms of 5 places which makes the race an excellent betting proposition.
TRUST THE ODDS
I have looked at the statistics over the last 9 seasons and these are my key conclusions.
1.       The market is a good guide for this race. Horses at odds of more than 11/1 have a record of 1 win from 114 runners. Horses shorter than this have 8 wins from 55 runners. 
2.       It is better to have experience prior to this race. Horses that have had less than 15 runs have a record of 3 wins from 94 runners compared to 6 wins from 75 runners for their more experienced rivals.
3.       Horses that finished in the 1st 3 last time have a success rate of 7 from 90. Those that finished further down the field have only won 2 from 79 efforts.
This reduces the field to 5, LE MILOS (7/1), BUSSELTON (9/1), FIDDLERONTHEROOF (11/1), REMASTERED (15/2) and OUR POWER (12/1).  
I suggest backing these each way with bookmakers who are offering 5 places.
For those who wish to narrow the field down further there are some other statistics that may prove relevant.
Horses carrying more than 11st 6lbs have a record of 0 wins from 31 attempts. This would rule out FIDDLERONTHEROOF, who carries 11st 9lbs.
A decent rest is desirable. Horses returning within 25 days of their last run have not won any of their 36 attempts. BUSSELTON last ran 66 days ago, OUR POWER 28 days ago.
Favourites have a good record with 3 winners from 8 runners.  
Horses bred in Ireland have the best record with 6 from 98 runners. FIDDLERONTHEROOF and OUR POWER are bred in Ireland.

5yo selections
Aintree 1.01 Johnson's Blue 13/2 Kelso 1.08 Netywell 2/1 Wincanton 1.50 Red Happy 16/1 Down Royal 1.58 Pats Choice 11/2 Kelso 2.18 Brandy Mcqueen 9/4

Trends for the Ayr Gold Cur (3.40)
Drawn 1-7, 0 from 48
Not in the 1st 5 in the betting, 2 from 135
This leaves COMMANCHE FALLS, SUMMERGHAND, BIELSA, MR WAGYU, VADREAM and GULLIVER
Top 6 in the weights, 1 from 42
This leaves SUMMERGHAND, BIELSA and GULLIVER
Last ran less than 14 days ago, 1 from 42 
This leaves SUMMERGHAND at 12/1 and BIELSA at 9/1, 6 places

So we finally get to the last meeting of the season. After having a very good first year in 2020, last year was much harder and I wondered if it would be something that I just happened to fluke in 2020 rather than being good at it. Luckily this season has been good as well and I go into the final meeting with a healthy profit which if BOG was allowed would be even higher given some of the mad drifts there have been on some of the selections. Hopefully we can go out on a high and I'm really looking forward to what should be a fascinating card. Bell Ex One who was 3rd in the Fred Winter for Paul Nicholls at the Festival in March makes his hurdles debut in Australia and goes head to head with Stern Idol in a race I can't wait to watch.
Race 1 It hasn't gone well for Port Guillaume since he moved to Australia from France and a G2 win at Deauville 2 years ago remains his last win. When he first moved he was running in the big races but was nearly last in the Melbourne Cup and it has been downhill from there. He isn't the first ex-European horse to go down this route having failed on the flat so he is likely to have the class, but I can't say I was overly impressed by his hurdles trial so I am happy enough to look elsewhere at the prices. Cotton Eye Joe is nowhere near Port Guillaume's class on the flat, but he did win a BM58 last time. He looked very novicey in his trial though and that puts me off. Upswing gets a run with their being a scratching and he's been running OK in BM70's/78's on the flat. He's harder to judge on his hurdling ability as he's been allowed to pot around at the back in a couple of trials. He's one to be wary off. The selection though is going to be one who has run in a hurdles race in the shape of Double You Tee. That was a good maiden hurdle he was 4th in at Pakenham on his debut and he wasn't able to run to his best in a race at Flemington last time. As much as you can't take trial results at face value the fact, he was in front of Bell Ex One 12 days ago is pleasing.    Double You Tee 1pt @ 7/2 with Betfair and Paddy Power   Race 2 This is a maiden hurdle for those who have low ratings on the flat so as you can imagine it is a low-class affair. If pushed Capellini might be worth an e/w play given he has finished 3rd in his last 3 maidens, but at the same time you just wonder if one of the hurdling newcomers is probably going to be good enough to beat him. I find it hard to have any confidence behind any of them though so I will pass the race over from a betting point of view.   Race 3 An interesting BM120 Hurdle. Chains Of Honour is a short price just as he was at Sandown last time, but he seemed to over-race that day and he didn't see his race out. He ended up finishing 3rd and to me it was more of a case that he didn't look like he stayed rather than him needing this deep ground which it was when he won his maiden hurdle at Warrnambool. He has the ability to win this especially given the yard he's coming from, but he looks worth opposing at the prices. Yulong Rising finished in 2nd in that race which was his best run to date over hurdles and he runs well in heavy ground so he has a chance. Sky Hero was beaten 0.2L by Bedford a couple of weeks ago and I think that was good form so he is another one who wouldn't be a surprise winner. I am going to back two against the field. I don't think it was a strong maiden which Castrofrancaru won a couple of weeks ago, but he was really impressive and that came on the back of 2 wins on the flat. The ground will be more testing here, but both those flat wins came on a heavy track and he looks to have a good chance to me in a race like this. The other one that interests me is the hurdling newcomer Star Stock. I find it interesting that his good trainer has chosen to go into handicap company first up rather than run in a maiden and I liked the way he trailed a couple of weeks ago. He won his maiden on the flat 2 back and then was a good 3rd in a BM70 at Geelong after that. He could be overpriced because he hasn't been over hurdles yet.   Castrofrancaru 1pt @ 100/30 with Coral, Betfred and Ladbrokes Star Stock 0.5pts @ 6/1 with Paddy Power and Betfair   Race 4 The feature hurdle on the card and it really does look like a match between ex-French hurdler Stern Idol and the ex-Paul Nicholls horse Bell Ex One. Stern Idol has been so impressive in his two hurdles starts in Australia winning both by huge margins. There is every chance he is the best hurdler in Australia at the moment although clearly the yard also have Saunter Boy so they haven't needed to run him in the bigger races until now. He's obviously very short, but in the shape of Bell Ex One he certainly faces his best opponent yet. He only ran once for Nicholls having been in Ireland previously, but he finished a very good 3rd in the Fred Winter at Cheltenham. That race has worked out pretty well so far and did feature one of the Mullins hot pots of the week Gaelic Warrior who was 2nd to Brazil. That was an excellent run and he was staying on to good effect up the hill. As for the ground he should be fine on a Heavy 10 given what he won on in Ireland. He's had a perfectly respectable flat run and a trial since coming to Australia. It's no surprise that Stern Idol is such a short price as the Australian's know more about him and I would have him as favourite as well because I do think he's very good, but Bell Ex One is clearly a very good horse as well and I don't think there will be as much between them as the betting suggests so from a value point of view I have to be with the Cheltenham Festival 3rd.   Bell Ex One 1pt @ 2/1 with William Hill, Coral, Betfred and Ladbrokes   Race 5 Having been keen on Roland Garros in previous races I left him alone last time and he duly made all and won. He should appreciate this even softer ground as well and its clear why he is favourite. I am going to take him on though with Brungle Bertie. Even though he was odds on on his chase debut at Pakenham and he was 2nd I did put up the winner that day and I think the form is good especially as there was a big space to the 3rd. He was then 4th in the Crisp last time, but that was a good effort and this is an easier race. It's hard to fancy any of the Pateman runners who have been very average this year. Mighty Oasis was a good winner over hurdles although was poor last time. He could be a player if he bounces back, but I suspect it will be between the top 2 in the betting and Brungle Bertie is the value for me.   Brungle Bertie 2pts @ 9/4 with Paddy Power, William Hill, Betfred, Betfair, Ladbrokes and Coral   Race 6 The biggest race of the Aussie Jumps season is the Grand National Steeplechase and it looks a fascinating affair. The Cossack is the challenger from New Zealand, but he has to bounce back from a very disappointing run in the Grand National Hurdle where he was beaten a long way out. He is surely better than that and I think a return to heavier ground will help his chances as well. Bee Tee Junior won this in 2020 on his first chase start and after threatening to come back to form he finally did so a couple of weeks ago when he was 2nd to Roland Garros given him a lot of weight. I'm not sure that effort is quite good enough to land this, but he should run well again on the back of it. St Arnicca is trying to copy what Bee Tee Junior did in finishing 2nd in the Grand National Hurdle and then win this on his 1st start over fences. I thought he was a little flattered to finish as close as he did to Saunter Boy as the winner kicked for home plenty early enough and I think he's better over shorter so it was no real surprise something got close to him. He is a contender though.   Finally we get to the form from the Crisp Steeplechase where the front 3 home, Flying Agent, Yulong Place and Valac, do battle again. Flying Agent was just so good in that race that I don't see how either of them can reverse the form. He has been prepared to peak at the backend of the season this time around and he is clearly doing just that. I find it hard to see Flying Agent getting beat here, obviously The Cossack and St Arnicca are new rivals, but I think at the level he is racing at right now he sets a very high level to beat.   Flying Agent 2.5pts @ 6/4 with Bet365, Paddy Power and Betfair

1.50 York  Nice race to start the  meeting loads of chance as 8/1 the field would suggest.
Would not put anyone of Dakota Gold tough reliable genuine  horse  8/1 -17/2 is fair enough  but i prefer to go with bigger priced horses e/w in this with 6 places & bog.
My first one  is having his first run in a handicap  we have not  seen the best of this 3yo this year  and has had his balls cut off since last seen   so hopefully  his mind will be on the job ahead i'm on e/w at 25's (now 20) was as big as 33's  GIS A SUB i think the shrewd Kevin Ryan trained runner will give a better show today. May be a horse worth following.
If my rain dance works the local trained SUNDAY SOVEREIGN 16/1 will go very close imo. Trainer loves getting winners here and Buick booked enough said.
Best  Of Luck All Fellow Punters

they sent over todays  /  Lingfield - bond spirit, lordman, jazzy princess, inaam, jade country, suanni, 
catterick - western beat, emerald duchess, the grey boy, magical effect, obee jo, profiles mix , hoot scoup,
they ended up  + 14 pt  over the weeknd  

2.50 Ripon
Summerghand  ran a stinker llto and is much better than that  and  looks weighted to win very soon however @ around 11/2 for this  not a backable bet for me today
Last years  winner and  another one of the older  brigade  Justanotherbottle will be popular but much to high in the weights for me.
However  i see last  years 4th  INTRINSIC BOND 12/1 to have a top e/w shout  coming of a win at 5f  lto but yet still 6lb lower than in this last year  has not won o 6f yet but that does not put me off   & should go very  well here again.
Have had a few shillings e/w on one  that is   10lb out of the handicap  but has a 7lb claimer on top  has  some could form and  a very big price  MARKS CHOICE 25/1.
GOOD LUCK ALL
 

There have been a number of comments about never backing odds on horses. I am going to start a trial on these horses.
The basic premise is that these selections should have an edge because :-
1. The favourite-longshot bias. This is an observed phenomenon where bettors tens to overvalue longshots and undervalue favourites.
2. There is a tendency for some bettors to specifically not bet on odds on selections. If a horse is 11/10 they will have a bet but at 10/11 they will not. The bookmakers will be aware of this and therefore they will lengthen the odds on selections and shorten the odds against.
I will pick 1 horse a day where it is forecast odds on and the first show on BET365 at 5pm is odds on. If there is more than 1 selection I will take the one with the lowest forecast odds.
I will post the selection as my nap in the naps competition to avoid having too many threads in At The Races.
I will also keep a record of the price movements to attempt to identify the best time to back these selections.
I will update this thread once a week.
The 1st selections is Bresson in the 2.10 at Yarmouth tomorrow. Forecast odds are 2/11. Opening price at 5.01 on BET365 was 4/9. Interestingly this has already shortened to 2/9.
 

Saratoga
710 - Full moon Fever @ 9/1 e-w Coral
810 - Flying Emperor @ 13/2 e-w Hills
844 - Finest Work @ 9/1 e-w Coral
1037 - Early Voting @ 9/4 Hills
1113 - Bay Street Money @ 12/1 e-w Coral

Down memory lane. when i first joined this site the first comments i submitted was "thoughts on the ebor anyone, i have been backing one for months."
BillyHills (Rest his soul) in his usual  sarcastic way (which i liked) replied. tell us which one then (before it runs preferably) or are you fishing?
My response-Trueshan I have backed it at 33/1 16/1 14/1 12/1 the only danger I see is Withhold. As for fishing I like fishing but I always find my own GG's. A wise old geyser once said to a young lad if you can't pick your own horse your betting on the wrong sport.
So Ebor arrives and i have splashed out the best part of 400 quid over 8 months and Marquand gave it a shocker, Holly on Trueshan then beat that ebor winner and stradavarious by a country mile at 20/1 on champions day of which i only had 50 quid on but cant really complain. The rest as they say is history, yes people will point to the different ground conditions but it is my belief that if a horse can win on the AW carrying 10-00+ then it should handle good or gf ground.
A little amusement- Went to an Ebor once and argued all the way there with my mate that my horse would murder his. mmm well his fell and brought mine down, i still shake my head in disbelief  at that one to this day. ?
Forgot to add ? The race in which Enemy (9-0) came 5th in in Dubai, i just cant get out of my mind (highlighted in NOTEBOOK HORSES) Manobo (8-9) won it in an incredible time for a 1m 6f race, Enemy unfancied at 66/1 was flying in the last 2 furlongs so for the Ebor this year its Ian Williams french import Enemy for me. 25/1 is a great price.