Racing Chat - Monday December 26th

[The Brigadier]

Merry Christmas to you all and here's hoping for a healthy and wealthy New Year

 

Just the five races that ITV are throwing our way today but it starts a run of six days out of the following seven that Ed and the gang are coming live into our living rooms. Four races today from Kempton with the feature race the King George VI Chase and the valuable handicap chase the Rowland Meyrick from Wetherby joining the quartet from Kempton. The grounds going to ride soft at both tracks and here’s my thoughts and selections on them.

 

 

Kempton 12.45

Five go to post for the re-arranged Ladbrokes Long Walk Hurdle, a grade one contest run over 3m 121 yards. There was very little between the winner Champ and the runner up Paisley Park at Newbury in November in the Long Distance Hurdle with just a neck separating them. I’m not entirely sure a speed track like this suits Champ and at the prices it may pay to take Emma Lavelle’s Paisley Park to turn the tables. Both are turning eleven next week mind and we have a brace of youngsters ready to have a go at the pair. Miranda is a seven year old mare who showed she stays well when beating her two rivals easily over course and distance last month and will relish the soft ground. It’s just a case with her of whether she’s good enough. The six year old Goshen and Not So Sleepy are stepping up in trip and have stamina to prove. I’ll take Paisley Park to reverse Newbury form with Champ.

 

PAISLEY PARK 1 point win @7/2 Betfred

 

Kempton 1.20

A small but select field of five go to post for this three mile grade one contest the Ladbrokes Kauto Star Novices’ Chase. A warm favourite, and quite rightly so, is Paul Nicholl’s McFabulous who looked very good when winning over this trip at Newbury at the Coral Gold Cup meeting. He had two of today’s rivals behind him that day in Thyme Hill (beaten 6 1/2L) and Mortlach (8 1/2L) and I would be surprised if either were able to reverse the form even with the former wearing first time cheek pieces. Nicholls’ second string (ridden by Bryony Frost) is Gelino Bello who in winning two novice chases this season has only beaten three opponents. The biggest danger to McFabulous is Dan Skelton’s mare Galia Des Liteaux who looked good when a very easy winner at Bangor-On-Dee in November. She looks a bit over priced at the moment and should go off as second favourite but it’s winners we’re looking for and McFabulous will be hard to beat.

 

McFABULOUS 2 points win @ 5/4 BetVictor

 

Wetherby 1.35

Twelve staying handicap chasers line up for a decent renewal of the William Hill Rowland Meyrick Handicap Chase run over three miles of the Yorkshire track. Shan Blue could be very well handicapped if his fall over course and distance in last season’s Charlie Hall Chase can be taken at face value but the same was said when a well beaten second on a handicap at Aintree in the Spring off of the same mark. He could blow these away but in a competitive race at around the 9/4 mark is opposable to me. Chantry House is an interesting runner who unseated on his seasonal re-appearance at Aintree and has claims for Nicky Henderson and owner JP McManus whilst easy Newbury winner Zanza shouldn’t be totally dismissed although he maybe better at the Berkshire track and has been raised 10lb. My fancy is bottom weight Into Overdrive who ran into one of the best chasers in the UK in L’Homme Presse last time out in the Rehearsal Handicap Chase at Newcastle. There was certainly no disgrace in Mark Walford’s seven year old going down by a length despite receiving 26lb and although he’s been upped 4lb for that run can run well off of bottom weight. If you like him then surely it’s worth a small each way saver on Windsor Avenue who was only 5 1/4L behind Into Overdrive that day and is now 5lb better off. Brian Ellison’s ten year old has a bit of a patchy record over the last year but won the Skybet Handicap Chase last January off of a handicap mark of a pound higher than todays and at five times the price of Into Overdrive is worth a small stakes saver.

 

INTO OVERDRIVE 1 points each way @ 11/2 Betfred 1/5th 1234

WINDSOR AVENUE 1/2 point each way @ 25/1 Betfred 1/5th 1234

 

Kempton 1.55

Only five go to post for the Ladbrokes Christmas Hurdle run over two miles and I’m afraid it’s a no bet race with Nicky Henderson’s freakishly good hurdler Constitution Hill likely to be very hard to beat. Unbeaten in all four starts over hurdles he really does look the real deal and dispatched his field in no uncertain manner on his re-appearance in the Fighting Fifth Hurdle at Newcastle coming home 12L ahead of his female stable companion Epatante. She may finish second again here in a race she’s won on two of the last three years. The Favourite is officially rated 17lb and upwards better than these and let’s hope he puts yet another exhibition round of jumping in and wins with his head in his chest. He’s impossible to oppose.

 

Kempton 2.30

An excellent renewal of the King George VI Chase. Run over three miles the race has been won by some smart sorts over the years with champion trainer Paul Nicholls winning it a dozen times. He saddles three here with stable jockey Harry Cobden picking Bravemansgame ahead of Hitman who has stamina to prove stepping up in trip. Bravemansgame impresses with his slick jumping and having won the Kauto Star Novice Chase over course and distance at last years meeting may be the one to be with although this is his sternest task to date. L’Homme Presse will love the recent rain and is a big danger. Venetia Williams’ seven year old is officially rated 6lb superior to Bravemansgame and if handling this sharp track can run well. The Irish are represented by Henry De Bromhead’s Envoi Allen who bounced back to winning form at Down Royal in November and is another with a decent shout. A tough call but it’s the Nicholls’s Bravemansgame to give his trainer yet another winner in this famous race for me.

 

BRAVEMANSGAME 2 points win @ 9/4 Betfred

 

[kensland]

Kempton. 

Single. 

1.20. Thyme Hill       5/1       11/2      1st 

  Good luck all. 

Edited December 26, 2022 by kensland

[Tedthewolf]

Like  The Btigadier  i feel WINDSOR AVENUE is overpriced in the  1.35 at Wetherby this horse does have  bad days but is talented  just gutted i missed the 40's betfair offered early doors but at 25/1 is still well worth backing e/w imo. i will have a 1pt e'w  but split it. 0.5 e/w with  skybet 25/1 5 places not bog  & 25/1 bog 4places with bet 365.

2pts Invested

Running Total Profit +5.08

 

[Alley Cat Glover]

12.45 Kempton Long Walk Hurdle

5 runners how simple could a race be! Trying to find a winner should be easy right. Two rightly class horses in Champ and Paisley Park both almost 11, opposed each other last time and had what looked like a really tough first race of the season, settled by a neck in favour of Champ. Two trying 3 miles for the first time have stamina doubts, both of which tend to my mind run fairly freely, but can they in this race, then we have the one mare receiving 7lb, who is the lowest rated, but won last time out over course and distance having been extended to 3 miles, seeming with loads left but in a slow time. So can Goshen and not So Sleepy afford to make the running, will that set it up for Champ and Paisley Park, is Miranda truly the lowest rated and a top handicapper at best or can she get involved in the finish.

Think I will side with Miranda but really want more than the 3-1 on offer although Sky do go money back if 2nd or 3rd. Think I will wait and see if there is a drift in price. When the public will hopefully side with the 2 Class and recognised horses.

 

PS all a load of rubbish really as was always siding with Miranda as I own a hair or two. Hopefully she runs her usual brave race and is involved coming off the bottom bend. Hopefully the Champ/Paisley Park duel has left a mark on both. 

[richard-westwood]

135 weth 

Sounds Russian   8.7 6/1 

Aye right   8.5 14/1 

Fanion destruval     8.5 

I'm not sure fanion destruval can stay this far ....would have a small chance on his ascot run but ran crappy last time so opposable on that ....aye right ran a stinker last time but previously ran well behind sounds Russian losing a shoe that day .....sounds Russian is rated around the 156 mark progressive and aye right woukd probably have finished a lot closer if not losing the shoe ......I've pencilled him in at 154+ but he will run off 151 with the claim do he's on a winning mark if getting it together .....I'll try 5pt ew top 2 and hope aye right springs a surprise 

 

[kensland]

Wincanton. 

Single 

12.18. Wynn House     6/1.     unpl

Huntington. 

Double. 

12.40. Hall Lane       7/2    unpl

1.15. Crystal Moon       5/1    1st 

Good luck all. 

 

Edited December 26, 2022 by kensland

[jonjo]

Main meeting of the day at Kempton:

12.10 Some smart young horses in this but for me Rare Edition has the best form on offer, was he from the Nicholls or Henderson stable I'm sure he would be a bit shorter than he is at the moment. Unbeaten under rules and is going the right way, as are many in this race of course but Rare Edition it is, trading at around 5 on betfair, win and place bet............................................................................................................Nice start WON easily at a Bfsp of 6.08 ?

12.45 In the Long Walk its Paisley Park for me, I think he would have beat Champ in the Coral but for an awkward jump at the last and he can get revenge here, cant see Goshen or Miranda being up to this standard. Paisley Park trading at a ridiculously high 5.9 on betfair is too high and could be a good trade.................................................................................................................................Brilliant performance, WON at a Bfsp of 5.7, 5.9 I got was even better?

1.20 Mcfabulous doesnt take a lot of picking, looks a different horse since going chasing, yes he is 3lb worse off with Thyme Hill for the 7 length betaing he gave that one last time but the manner of that victory was impressive and I cant see the tables being turned here. Currently 2.92 and drifting on betfair, seems fair to me....................................................................................................continued to drift, finished 2nd.

1.55 What can you say about this race? Costitution Hill is long odds on, not for me but the 8/11 that was on offer for Eptante to finish 1st or 2nd did interest me and the 1.82 on betfair..........................................................................................Easiest 1.82 winner of the season I think, always going to be second in this ?

2.30 The King George is a fantastic renewal, mys systems on horseracebase.com are telling me Bravemansgame, coming up eight times no less! but I'm going no further than my current favourite horse in training in L'homme Presse, 3.45 taken on betfair, was possibly over the top come Aintree where he was well beaten but other than that mishap he is unbeaten over fences. The way he shouldered top weight in the Rehearsal at Newcastle was really impressive. L'homme Presse for me on the way to winning whatever race they put him in at Cheltenham, hopefully the Gold Cup.....morning of the race and 4.2 available along with 1.76 in the pace market, huge imo.................betaen by the better horse when falling........... 

3.05 A good Novices Chase, the one I like best in the David Pipe trained Panic Attack, only out of the first four once in seven since moving up to 20 furlongs and more, won his chase debut very nicely and could have more to offer and at the price is my choice for a win and place bet, currently 8.6 on the exchanges, no place price liquidity yet................................................................................Placed at 3.1?

As always a lay of price will be placed in running.

 

Good luck.

Edited December 26, 2022 by jonjo

[kensland]

Newcastle.

Single.

2.00.. Lady Tremaine        10/1     ew.        unpl

Good luck all. 

Edited December 26, 2022 by kensland

[Gary66]

Mcfabulous  1_20  kempton won with any amount in hand at Newbury in November on top of that his two previous visits to kempton were both wins  good luck and have a great Xmas gazza

[Wildgarden]

Merry Christmas all and happy new year punting.

[alexcaruso808]

12:45 Kempton - Paisley Park @ 5.6 on Smarkets.  

 

Merry Christmas all - have a good one.

[Gary66]

2-33 down royal storyteller  .if the predicted rain happens the 11/4 available could be big come race time good luck always gazza

[Gary66]

2-30 kemp envoi Allen  didn't jump with any fluency when last seen but you can't easily rule this one out it's not just about the top two in the market

[azzybear]

millers bank 2.30 ew seems well overpriced won a grade 1 over2m4f so this horse is no slouch by all means 

[calva decoy]

After a quick look through tomorrow's cards it's refreshing to see so many entries at many of the courses ?

Lincolnshire National 2.50 Mkt.Rasen - CASH TO ASH 25/1 eway sky ( 6 places ) was 2nd in race last year & 1Lb lower .

[azzybear]

Goshen 12.45 if the horse can get the 3 miles should have a good chance of winning this race only 2 races iv looked at have another look tomorrow at some other races 

[Zilzalian]

More small field fodder served up as cuisine for boxing day. If racing can't find 10 horses for a race of good group race prize money then they should evenly distribute the pool throughout the industry and scrap the pattern.

Other thoughts.....take away all the BS hype.

Someone tell me the 20/1 i got for Royale Pagaille is a bad bet.

Thyme Hill is a huge price at 6/1

Sporting John 12/1 for a Hobbs good double with the above  (82/1 ish)

Throne Hall is a silly price at 12/1 for the 12:10 at Kempton.

slap that fiver dble on add a deep sea diver per gg and a 40p lucky 15 all 4 gg's £31 quid well spent in my book.

[black rabbit]

Ahoy Senor    2 30 Kemp/     £25 ew  {1/20th} of a pt     18/1

Zanza             1 35 Weth/      1/20th  of a pt  win              14/1

Highway One Two   1 55 Kemp/      1/20th of a pt win     100/1

 

 

 

 

P/L      + 158.55  pts

Edited December 25, 2022 by black rabbit

[Tedthewolf]

1.40 MR -FAKIR 16/1 bog 3 places bog

250 MR-WHO'S IN THE BOX  33/1 bog  5 places

1/2  pt e/w singles = 2pts

Running Total  Profit +3.08

[Gary66]

13-58 down royal magic sea will not be 50/1 at off time 3 time course winner

[MCLARKE]

5yo selections

Lucky 15 in bold

COURSE	TIME	SELECTION	ODDS
Huntingdon	12.05	Loup De Maulde	100/30
Newcastle	12.50	Chemical Warfare	10/1
Huntingdon	1.15	Crystal Moon	5/1
Limerick	1.33	Summer Melody	11/2
Market Rasen	1.40	Duke Of Luckley	9/2
Kempton	1.55	Constitution Hill	1/7
Down Royal	1.58	Our Patron Saint	66/1
Newcastle	2.00	Twoshotsoftequila	12/1
Limerick	2.40	Adamantly Chosen	16/1
Leopardstown	2.55	Alice Avril	20/1
Kempton	3.05	Hudson De Grugy	14/1
Wolverhampton	4.45	Let Her Loose	25/1
Wolverhampton	5.20	Phoenix Aquilus	8/1

[jonjo]

12.32 The way Norton Hill finished off his race on his handicap debut looked as though he was crying out for this longer trip. Down in grade today, could be hard to keep him out the frame, 4.6 taken and will maybe dabble in the 2Tbp market depending on the prices nearer the off...................going ok then Fell?

 

1.10 Triumph Hurdle favourite Lossiemouth will need to win here to justify that status. The filly is a French import and won really well on her Irish debut in a Grade 3 race, gets all the allowances here and will be difficult to beat. On the exchanges at around 2.08 for the win.............................WON very easily ?

 

1.35 Not the force of a year ago and is on a drift this morning but I’m chancing a bet in the 4 Tbp market on betfair on Chantry House, down in grade and running in a handicap for the first time. Overnight 13 and 2.66 in the 4Tbp market.Hard to know the price at this stage................was 4th when fell ?

 

1.42 The betting should tell us if Dobryn is ready to go, if so, he’s a good each way shout, with his jockeys allowance he’s effectively only 2lb higher than when winng a Class 3 at Ludlow last year, currently around 8.8 in the win markets, nothing yet in the place market....on the drift at 16 and 3.25 in the 4Tbp market...........................................................heavily backed, back in to 6 on betfair, fell early ?

 

2.25 Megan Moon blew it at the start at Newcastle last week and given a clean break here she should go very close, finished well last time to finish runner up after being hampered two furlongs out. Trading at around the 3.7 mark..............3rd?

 

2.33 The Hunter Chase at Downpatrick, here The Storyteller at 3.2 is the choice, he seems to have been rejuvinated by going Hunter Chasing winning all three of his races, all over 3 miles and must have a great chance here. Saver, also backing on the improving youngster of the race Vaucelet,........................................................................ Vaucelet...wins at a Bfsp of 3.15......?

 

3.15 Here I think Bonnie Kellie should go close at around the 3/1 mark, second last time on her Handicap Chase debut off a mark of 79, the mare has been raised just 4lb for that so gets in today off 93 which is still 7lb below her hurdle mark....morning update - 4.2 taken and around 2.6 in the 2Tbp market..................................WON easily the 4.2 was nice to get as was the 2.6 in the 2Tbp market?

 

3.40 The Harry Skelton trained handicap debutant here is the choice, Grey Dawning, he was only pushed out gently to beat Lallilag (a winner since) last time out and there could be more to come now handicapping. Trading around the 3.5 mark. Wont be surprised if The Bomber Liston, around 11.5 ran well, so a saver there...............................................................................................3.5 was nice to get about Grey Dawning who just won?

 

In running lay off prices will be placed.

.

It just feels great to have racing again even though its only been three blank days, seems longer somehow. Good luck everyone.

Edited December 26, 2022 by jonjo

[Zilzalian]

39 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

5yo selections

Lucky 15 in bold

COURSE	TIME	SELECTION	ODDS
Huntingdon	12.05	Loup De Maulde	100/30
Newcastle	12.50	Chemical Warfare	10/1
Huntingdon	1.15	Crystal Moon	5/1
Limerick	1.33	Summer Melody	11/2
Market Rasen	1.40	Duke Of Luckley	9/2
Kempton	1.55	Constitution Hill	1/7
Down Royal	1.58	Our Patron Saint	66/1
Newcastle	2.00	Twoshotsoftequila	12/1
Limerick	2.40	Adamantly Chosen	16/1
Leopardstown	2.55	Alice Avril	20/1
Kempton	3.05	Hudson De Grugy	14/1
Wolverhampton	4.45	Let Her Loose	25/1
Wolverhampton	5.20	Phoenix Aquilus	8/1

that will be interesting to see, what wins and if some do what prices.

i think i will try 
crystal moon
Chemical warfare

Twoshotsoftequila

Duke of luckley

[azzybear]

high definition 12.00 .galia des liteaux 1.20 summer melody 1.33  sporting john 1.35 

[MCLARKE]

9 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

that will be interesting to see, what wins and if some do what prices.

i think i will try 
crystal moon
Chemical warfare

Twoshotsoftequila

Duke of luckley

It's been a bit hit and miss, I will review at the end of December and see what the results are.

[azzybear]

ey van 11.40 

[MCLARKE]

Odds on selection

Market Rasen

0.30

Chasing Fire

2/5

[MCLARKE]

BET365 TV 4/1 offer selections

WETH	1.35	Into Overdrive	4/1
KEMP	2.30	Envoi Allen	9/2

[The Equaliser]

1.20 Km McFabulous 5/2

2.30 Braveman's Game 3/1

4.45 Wolv Busby 10/3

1 x 1 pt win Trixie = 4 points = poss return of 107.15

1.35 Weth Sounds Russian Fanion Destruval and Into Overdrive 6 x 0.50 forecasts = 3 pts poss return 14.98 - 31.09

singles and savers

1.20 Km Galia Des Liteaux  2 pt win at 9/4

1.35 Weth Aye Right 0.50 ew at 33/1

= 10 points staked

Good luck to all

Nice touch by @The Brigadierwith Paisley Park winning at 9/2 ?

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The forecast returned 14.99 in the 1.35 at Weth + I received 3.80 on the place bet. I wish I had included a Tricast on my combination bets as that paid 190.68 or 95 pts for a 0.50 stake for 6 bets.  Many thanks to @The Brigadierand @richard-westwoodfor inspiring the combo bet.  A profit of 8.79 today.  My MTD is now -69.53 and YTD - 332.97.  Not much chance of making a full recovery this year methinks

More classy racing tomorrow at Kempton. Chepstow and Wetherby, not sure how much I may get involved

Edited December 26, 2022 by The Equaliser
RESULTS UPDATE

[MCLARKE]

1 hour ago, MCLARKE said:

BET365 TV 4/1 offer selections

WETH	1.35	Into Overdrive	4/1
KEMP	2.30	Envoi Allen	9/2

Into Overdrive wins at 4/1 so a free bet on the next race

KEMP

1.55

EPATANTE

15/2