Racing Chat - Saturday 26th November

[The Brigadier]

Eight races this afternoon with the ITV cameras showing five from Newbury with the feature race the Coral Gold Cup and three from Newcastle where we have the Fighting Fifth with the re-appearance of arguably the most exciting horse in training in Nicky Henderson’s unbeaten superstar Constitution Hill. The ground is likely to be just on the slow side at Newbury whilst Newcastle are reporting drying good to soft conditions.

Here’s my thoughts on the days racing.

 

 

Newbury 1.20

A competitive 2m 6F handicap chase run in the memory of the legendary commentator Sir Peter O’Sullevan kicks off the days ITV coverage with a decent sized field of thirteen facing the starter. Last years winner Kapcorse is back to defend his title off of a 6lb higher mark and looks interesting for the combo of Nicholls and Cobden with a lay off unlikely to be an issue as he won this off of a similar break 12 months ago. Bottom weight Killer Kane will no doubt improve for his seasonal re-appearance when 6th at Chepstow and is a player here along with the Nicky Henderson runner Mister Coffey who is making his first start of the campaign. Welsh trainer Christian Williams runs a brace in top weight Kitty’s Light who may still be too high in the weights and of more interest his Cap Du Nord who won this race two years ago and is ridden by a 7lb conditional jockey today. Kerry Lee’s Demachine is a horse I like who ran out a comfortable winner at Uttoxeter when last seen in May and with Lee amongst the winners recently could be the value bet here. I also can’t resist a small each way saver on Philip Hobb’s Zanza who has form figures here of 1161 and is currently on a winning mark.

 

DEMACHINE 1 point each way @ 15/2 bet365 1/5th 1234

ZANZA 1/2 point each way @ 9/1 1/5th 1234

 

Newcastle 1.35

Five novice chasers line up for this class 3 2m 7F 91 yard novices’ handicap chase. Irish challenger Shantou Lucky trained by County Meath handler Gavin Cromwell is a rare runner here for his trainer and has to be respected but my preference is for the James Ewart trained Lord Roco who showed plenty of promise on his chase debut at Ayr when runner up to Grand Voyage. He’s stepping up three furlongs here but the stamina test should suit him and this lightly raced six year old looks sure to be competitive. Ben Pauling has his team in excellent shape and saddles his fencing debutant Malinello under Luca Morgan. He’s not been seen on the racecourse for 686 days and it will be some training performance where he to take this off of top weight. Brian Ellison’s Son Of The Somme is another who could take a hand in the finish following a promising chase debut at Ayr in October but it’s Lord Roco for me.

 

LORD ROCO 2 points win @ 4/1 BetVictor

 

Newbury 1.55

A decent and competitive 12 runner class 2 handicap hurdle run over 2m 4 1/2F is next up with the two market leaders making their handicap debuts and could be a fair bit better than their handicap mark. Nicky Henderson saddles Walking On Air, an impressive maiden hurdle winner here last January who it seems is held in very high regard by his trainer and a mark of just 132 could seriously underestimate his ability. The other potential blot on the handicap is the Skelton runner West Balboa who was last seen running second in last season’s Tolworth Hurdle over course and distance. She too could potentially be chucked in. Both have been well supported throughout the week with slight preference for the Henderson runner. Lord Baddesley impressed when bolting up at Plumpton last time but has been raised 9lb for that victory. Fergal O’Brien’s Peking Rose scraped home at Aintree last month and wouldn’t be certain to confirm that form with the third Petit Tonnerre who re-opposes on 2lb better terms for just over a length. An interesting runner at what appears to me to be too big a price is the Ian Williams trained Malakahna. The four year old filly comes here having won her last two starts on the flat in the Autumn and is chasing a four timer over timber having last been seen in that sphere at Cheltenham at their April meeting. She looks overpriced and I’ll back her small each way as well as Nicky Henderson’s Walking On Air.

 

MALAKAHNA 1 point each way @ 14/1 Boylesports 1/5th 1234

WALKING ON AIR 1 point win @ 7/2 William Hill

 

Newcastle 2.10

Ascot’s loss is Newcastle’s gain as the most exciting horse in training Constitution Hill lines up for the two mile Fighting Fifth Hurdle on his seasonal re-appearance. Unbeaten last season in three starts culminating in a remarkable rout in the Supreme Novices Hurdle at Cheltenham in a very fast time, Nicky Henderson’s five year old is already around the even money mark for the Champion Hurdle and bar accidents should be winning this under Nico de Boinville. His smart stable companion Epatante, a former Champion Hurdle winner herself, has won this the last two years and is no slouch herself. She can finish runner up here but from a punting perspective it’s a no bet race but well worth watching to see how special Michael Buckley’s charge is.

 

Newbury 2.30

The 2m 69 yard intermediate handicap hurdle registered as the Gerry Feilden is a valuable contest which has attracted just the eight participants. All 8 can be give a chance of sorts with local trainer Nicky Henderson heading the weights with First Street and Thaetre Glory who are both making their seasonal re-appearances today. Both have claims though it’s the handicap debutant Pikak trained by Dan Skelton and ridden by his brother Harry that takes my eye. He kept good novice company as a four year old in races won by the likes of smart sorts Knappers Hill, I Like To Move It and Jonbon and got off the mark when an easy winner at Chepstow in October. That form has been given a double boost since with the 3rd all set for victory when crashing out at Ascot and the 4th winning well since. His mark of 127 looks possibly lenient and can take this.

 

PIKAR 1 point win @ 10/3 bet365

 

Newbury 3.05

Formerly known at The Hennessy Gold Cup and more recently The Ladbroke Trophy this 3m 2F handicap chase is now known as the Coral Gold Cup and as per normal has attracted a strong group of sixteen runners. With the bookmakers betting 7/1 the field and offering up to 6 places it really is a race to have a crack at. David Pipe runs two in Remastered and Gericault Roque with stable jockey Tom Scudamore on the latter although I wouldn’t be reading too much into that as Remastered was ridden by David Noonan last time when a comfortable winner over hurdles at Aintree with Gericault Roque down the field. Remastered was going like the winner when crashing out four from home last year and is actually 3lb lower this term. He’s on my short list. Joe Tizzard saddles three in Oscar Elite (Cobden), Fiddlerontheroof (Powell) and Lostintranslation (Freddie Gingell claiming 7lb). All have some sort of chance and I wouldn’t be shocked if the latter was to run well as he’s so well handicapped at present. Le Milos won well at Bangor last time and is officially 4lb well in here for the Skeltons but would definitely prefer it muddier. Lucinda Russell has her team in fine form with a treble at Kelso on Thursday and saddles Cheltenham Festival winner Corach Rambler who’s been teed up for this with a run at Carlisle 27 days ago. Towards the bottom of the handicap is Neil Mulholland’s Lord Accord who bumped into the well handicapped Frodon in the Badger Beers at Wincanton last time. A case can be made for plenty but it’s Remastered for me with a small saver on Lord Accord. Remember to shop around for those extra places.

 

REMASTERED 1 point each way @ 8/1 Paddy Power 1/5th 12345

LORD ACCORD 1/2 point each way @ 14/1 1/5th 12345

 

 

Newcastle 3.25

Nine staying chasers line up for this premier handicap, the Rehearsal Handicap Chase run over just short of three miles. The weights are headed by Venetia Williiam’s Cheltenham Festival winner L’Homme Presse who has the steadier of twelve stone to carry. Williams has hit form within the last week but her stable star has plenty to do giving lumps of weight away on his seasonal reappearance and I’ll be taking him on here. Last year’s winner Aye Right is two from three at the North Eastern track and ran well on his seasonal re-appearance in a competitive Kelso handicap five weeks ago. He can run well. Kim Bailey sends his smart eight year old Happygolucky up from Gloucestershire although he has a 595 day absence to overcome. The four rank outsiders Windsor Avenue, The Big Bite, Whoshotthesherriff and Dallas Des Pictons are hard to fancy and this looks a good race for an each way bet. It’s the bottom weight trained by the under rated Mark Walford who catches my eye. A progressive seven year old chaser who’s won his last four starts rising some 26lb. Getting 26lb from the favourite L’Homme Presse he looks an excellent each way bet.

 

INTO OVERDRIVE 1 1/2 points each way @ 4/1 bet365 1/5th 123

 

Newbury 3.40

The afternoon’s terrestrial coverage concludes with a eight runner class 2 2M handicap chase. Joe Tizzard’s Amarillo Sky is a short enough favourite here having won at the Paddy Power meeting at Cheltenham on his re-appearance 33 days ago. Raised 4lb for that victory he looks sure to be thereabouts though I must admit at around the 11/8 mark hardly looks value. Chris Gordon has his string in fine form and saddles Only Money here who’s already won twice this Autumn and ran well enough at Aintree behind Gunshot Ridge last time. He has solid each way claims. Dan Skelton has two runners in top weight Eclair D’Ainay and Hatcher with Harry Skelton presumably choosing the former and is probably the pick of that pair. The horse I like though is Tom George’s Bun Doran who has fallen to a very nice handicap mark. He last won at Doncaster in March and after flopping at Aintree the following month is back on the same mark as his Doncaster win. George has had 4 winners from his last 13 runners at a win ratio of 31% and if all eight run is worth a small stakes each way bet against the favourite.

 

BUN DORAN 1 point each way @ 7/1 bet365 1/5th 123

 

[black rabbit]

Our Power    3 05 Nbry/      1/20th of a pt win   12/1/      {NON  RUNNER}

Current Mood   1 55 Nwby/    1/20th of a pt win    12/1

Busselton     3 05  Nbry/     1/20th of a pt win    10/1

 

 

 

P/L  + 158.70pts

Edited November 26, 2022 by black rabbit

[richard-westwood]

Coral gold cup 

Le milos    9.0 9.2 betfair 

Fiddleronroof  8.8 11.5 

Fanion destruval   8.4 25/1 

Gericault roque    8.3  

5pt wins top 3 and 6x rev forecasts top 3 

[richard-westwood]

120 newb 

Zanza    8.5  6/1 

Demachine  8.3  7/1 

Kitty's light   8.1 25/1 

Kapcourse 7.9 

Close race .....any one of these 4 could be a potential winner .....kitty's light has a, definate squeak at a big price so I'll try 5pt wins top 3 and hope kitty pulls something on the day 

[richard-westwood]

155 newb 

West balboa   8.7 7/2 

Lord baddesley   8.4 7/1 

Red risk   7.9  50/1  

Red risk is out of form ....has possible ew chance if could get things together but top 2 look strong so I'll try 7pts win West...3pts win lord 

Doubles on top 2 in all 3 races  .

[Tedthewolf]

.

3.05 New-Remastered 15/2-5Places

1.20 New-Cap Du Nord 8/1-4 Places

3.40 New- Monsieur  Lecoq 8/1-3Places

1.55 New-Petit Tonnerre14/1- 4Places

E/W Lucky 15  BOG

 

120 New -Cap Du Nord-Zanza-Kittys Light -Combi RFC & Tricast

3.05 New-Remastered-Oscar Elite-Gericult Rouge-Combi RFC & Combi Tricast

 

[kensland]

Doncaster. 

Single. 

3.32. Mr Barrowclough        12/1      1st 

Good luck all. 

Edited November 26, 2022 by kensland

[MCLARKE]

5yo selections

Lucky 15 in bold

Doncaster	0.05	Old Page	66.00
Newcastle	0.30	Twoshotsoftequila	8.00
Newcastle	1.00	Imperial B G	6.00
Bangor-on-Dee	1.28	Lounge Lizard	4.00
Newcastle	1.35	Shantou Lucky	3.00
Newbury	1.55	Walking On Air	3.50
Newcastle	2.10	Constitution Hill	0.29
Wolverhampton	6.50	Visibility	18.00
Wolverhampton	7.50	Captain Claret	25.00

[MCLARKE]

This weekend’s big handicap is the Coral Gold Cup Handicap Chase at Newbury. To us old timers this will always be known as the Hennessy, 1^st run in 1957. This premier handicap is run over 3 miles and 2 furlongs and is open to horses aged 4 or older. Off time is 3.05 and 16 go to post.

It is often a good guide for Cheltenham. Native River won this race in 2016 before going on to win that year’s Cheltenham Gold Cup. 4 other horses have been placed in this race before going on to win at the Cheltenham Festival.

Many Clouds won this in 2014 before going on to win that year’s Grand National.

Most bookmakers offer each-way terms of 5 places which makes the race an excellent betting proposition.

TRUST THE ODDS

I have looked at the statistics over the last 9 seasons and these are my key conclusions.

1.       The market is a good guide for this race. Horses at odds of more than 11/1 have a record of 1 win from 114 runners. Horses shorter than this have 8 wins from 55 runners. 

2.       It is better to have experience prior to this race. Horses that have had less than 15 runs have a record of 3 wins from 94 runners compared to 6 wins from 75 runners for their more experienced rivals.

3.       Horses that finished in the 1^st 3 last time have a success rate of 7 from 90. Those that finished further down the field have only won 2 from 79 efforts.

This reduces the field to 5, LE MILOS (7/1), BUSSELTON (9/1), FIDDLERONTHEROOF (11/1), REMASTERED (15/2) and OUR POWER (12/1).  

I suggest backing these each way with bookmakers who are offering 5 places.

For those who wish to narrow the field down further there are some other statistics that may prove relevant.

Horses carrying more than 11st 6lbs have a record of 0 wins from 31 attempts. This would rule out FIDDLERONTHEROOF, who carries 11st 9lbs.

A decent rest is desirable. Horses returning within 25 days of their last run have not won any of their 36 attempts. BUSSELTON last ran 66 days ago, OUR POWER 28 days ago.

Favourites have a good record with 3 winners from 8 runners.  

Horses bred in Ireland have the best record with 6 from 98 runners. FIDDLERONTHEROOF and OUR POWER are bred in Ireland.

[Villa Chris]

1.20 Newbury Cap Du Nord 8/1 Demachine 11/2

3.05 Newbury Gericault Roque 13/2 Threeunderthrufive 10/1 Lord Accord 11/1(EW) 

3.25 Newcastle,  Into Overdrive 7/2

3.40 Newbury Bun Doran 15/2

Double/  Only Money 3.40 Newb/Big Bad Bear Finisk River 2.57 Doncaster 

40 points staked 

 

Edited November 26, 2022 by Villa Chris
Altered some ew bets to wins

[kensland]

Bangor- on -Dee

Doubles. 

12.23. Petty Cash    7/2   unpl

2.38. Rockinastorm    7/2...unpl

singles & double. 

Double. 

1.28. Lounge Lizard    4/1...unpl

2.03. Duke of Moravia    11/4..unpl

singles  & double. 

Good luck all. 

Edited November 26, 2022 by kensland

[jonjo]

Another cracking days racing in front of us:

12.53 Bangor.

Barichello looked the best of these over hurdles and ran  well in his debut race over fences finishing third to two who have gone in again as did the 5th place horse, all next time out winners. He won his Novice Hurdle over this sort of distance by 27 lenghts so being upped in distance today may well help further. I've just under 3.6 av for this one....res.stuffed but for some reason traded as low as 1.54 after just two fences?

1.05 Gowran Park.

Archies Charm improved no end for his second run of the season when finishing runner up to Final Orders at Down Royal last time returned to fences that day. The first two were miles clear of the third who came out and won next time up, this is more difficult but he could well be capable, 3.8 taken.............res....3rd

1.28 Bangor. Miss Elizabeth Gale is the jockey here, just 4 career rides all for Hobbs and she's a winner on the last two of them. In this she rides Keep Wondering for th stable. The horse has won off a mark of 123 so taking todays jockeys 10lb allowance into consideration, gets in here off a mark of 116. Keep Wondering looks ready to strike having had a pipe opener over hurdles last time out. Her last race of last season was a career best at Newbury and was beaten by just a nose. The 3rd, 4th and 5th all won next time up. Took 6/1 last night and an av of 5.8 on betfair today........................huge drift just before the off, now at 17? .....res.......pulled up, and, how did they know!!!

2.22 Doncaster.

I tok and early 2.04 about Nothin To Ask in this, now trading a shade odds on. Looked one to follow when making a winning debut over fences beating Fern Hill very easily, that one came out to win in this Grade next time out making the 8lb rise in weights for Nothin To Ask look a bit lenient, with Paddy Brennan riding at Newbury today Liam Harrison takes over and claims 3lb, must admit that he is my slight doubt!.......................Won nicely

2.45 Newcastle.

Sergeant Wilson looks anything but straight forward, hung left under pressure last time and fell before that having tried to run out! Hopefully experience will bring about better today. Finishing 3rd in his last race, the winner has come out and won a Listed Race and the 7th and 9th home have gone on to win their Novices next time up, a drifting 2.92 at the moment. 

 

I love the Fighting Fifth at Newcastle, my local course but sadly cant be there today. The biggest Talking Horse ever runs in Constitution Hill who may well hack up and his stable companion Eptante may well be second, but what if.......................well I'm having a small bet on Not So Sleepy in the 2tbp markets, dead heated with Eptante in this last year, finished 6th in the Champion Hurdle and on the flat was 3rd in the Cesarewitch, samll field, muddling pace you just never know in this game, currently around 4.8 2 tbp.........5.1 taken.

Lots of stable switchers today but wont get time to study.

 

Good luck whatever you are on today.

 

Edited November 26, 2022 by jonjo

[jonjo]

9 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

This weekend’s big handicap is the Coral Gold Cup Handicap Chase at Newbury. To us old timers this will always be known as the Hennessy, 1^st run in 1957. This premier handicap is run over 3 miles and 2 furlongs and is open to horses aged 4 or older. Off time is 3.05 and 16 go to post.

It is often a good guide for Cheltenham. Native River won this race in 2016 before going on to win that year’s Cheltenham Gold Cup. 4 other horses have been placed in this race before going on to win at the Cheltenham Festival.

Many Clouds won this in 2014 before going on to win that year’s Grand National.

Most bookmakers offer each-way terms of 5 places which makes the race an excellent betting proposition.

TRUST THE ODDS

I have looked at the statistics over the last 9 seasons and these are my key conclusions.

1.       The market is a good guide for this race. Horses at odds of more than 11/1 have a record of 1 win from 114 runners. Horses shorter than this have 8 wins from 55 runners. 

2.       It is better to have experience prior to this race. Horses that have had less than 15 runs have a record of 3 wins from 94 runners compared to 6 wins from 75 runners for their more experienced rivals.

3.       Horses that finished in the 1^st 3 last time have a success rate of 7 from 90. Those that finished further down the field have only won 2 from 79 efforts.

This reduces the field to 5, LE MILOS (7/1), BUSSELTON (9/1), FIDDLERONTHEROOF (11/1), REMASTERED (15/2) and OUR POWER (12/1).  

I suggest backing these each way with bookmakers who are offering 5 places.

For those who wish to narrow the field down further there are some other statistics that may prove relevant.

Horses carrying more than 11st 6lbs have a record of 0 wins from 31 attempts. This would rule out FIDDLERONTHEROOF, who carries 11st 9lbs.

A decent rest is desirable. Horses returning within 25 days of their last run have not won any of their 36 attempts. BUSSELTON last ran 66 days ago, OUR POWER 28 days ago.

Favourites have a good record with 3 winners from 8 runners.  

Horses bred in Ireland have the best record with 6 from 98 runners. FIDDLERONTHEROOF and OUR POWER are bred in Ireland.

Hi, you say that just one winner from the last 9 has been priced at 11/1 or more? The last winner was 33/1, in 2019 Dashel Drasher won at 12/1, in 2018 Sizing Tenesse also won at 12/1, in 2013 Triolo Dalene won at 20/1? Apologies if I'm wrong and good luck today.

[richard-westwood]

14 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

155 newb 

West balboa   8.7 7/2 

Lord baddesley   8.4 7/1 

Red risk   7.9  50/1  

Red risk is out of form ....has possible ew chance if could get things together but top 2 look strong so I'll try 7pts win West...3pts win lord 

Doubles on top 2 in all 3 races  .

West non runner .....I'll increase stakes on lord baddeley to 5pt ew ...and have a small 1pt ew on red risk 

[kensland]

Newbury. 

3.40. Only Money     3/1

1.20. Dublin Four     6/1

singles  & double. 

Good luck all. 

[kensland]

Bangor-on-Dee. 

12.53. Barrichello   15/8...unpl

3.13. Shesupincourt    7/2    2nd 

singles  & double. 

Good luck all. 

Edited November 26, 2022 by kensland

[Ryanpete]

Taking a risk on

Peking rose 1.55 Newbury 5/1 

Good luck today guys ?

[Sporting Sam]

Newcastle 11.55

Milton Harris runs

CABRAKAN 

win

juvenile hurdler has a head start here

[azzybear]

volcano 12.00 lord sparky 12.05 poetic music 12.15 the big jetaway 12.23 

[azzybear]

three under thrive 3.05 

[MCLARKE]

1 hour ago, jonjo said:

Hi, you say that just one winner from the last 9 has been priced at 11/1 or more? The last winner was 33/1, in 2019 Dashel Drasher won at 12/1, in 2018 Sizing Tenesse also won at 12/1, in 2013 Triolo Dalene won at 20/1? Apologies if I'm wrong and good luck today.

I should have stated that this is the forecast price. I don't use the SP because we don't know what this is until the off and it is therefore of no use if we want to select the horse prior to the race and take the early price.

[MCLARKE]

Odds on selections

Newcastle	1.00	Mofasa	4/11
Newcastle	2.10	Constitution Hill	1/3

[The Equaliser]

Completely disorganised this morning so just a few bets today

1.20 NB Demachine 2 pts win at 6.2 My PL Nap @richard-westwood's 2nd top rated and hampered by being the selection of the Big 3.  This is a very competitive race.  I don't fancy Zanza despite the go-faster blinkers.  Instead I'll have 0.50 ew on Cap Du Lord 11/1 @Villa Chris's 2nd selection  

1.55 Nb Petit Tonnerre 0.50 ew at 12/1

3.05 Richard's top 4 selections 0.50 win bets 5/1, 11/1, 14/1 and 13/2.  skipped Fenian Destruval for a combination forecast and instead put Gericault Rogue with Le Milops and Fiddlerontheroof  0.25 forecast = 1.50 +2 pts win bets = 3.50.  Serves me right if @The Brigadier's  Remastered scuppers my plans

7.50 stakes today

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Well I couldn't have cocked that up better had I tried.  A small win on Le Milos and a place return on Petit Tonnere.  Only I could show a loss of 2.80 by backing in Richard's races

I will go with Richard's 6.50 at Wolves tonight Big Narstie 1 pt win at 6.2 then 0.50 ew on Huddleton Mac (big drifter at 10/1) and  a 0.50 reverse forecast on both with poss returns of 19.26 and 22.80

Total points today 10.5

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Very disappointing run by Big Narstie, blew the race just after the start.  The bet created a loss of 5.80 on the day.  An interesting day although I didn't have much time to participate today.  Anyway my MTD is now -37.3 and YTD -249.04

Just two meetings tomorrow and although there is some good class racing there seems to be a lot of races with short priced favourites in the handicaps.  This does not look good and makes finding value bets very difficult indeed.

Three cheers for @richard-westwoodI hope that some PL members made some money by backing his selections today ?

Edited November 27, 2022 by The Equaliser
Results Update

[richard-westwood]

18 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

120 newb 

Zanza    8.5  6/1 

Demachine  8.3  7/1 

Kitty's light   8.1 25/1 

Kapcourse 7.9 

Close race .....any one of these 4 could be a potential winner .....kitty's light has a, definate squeak at a big price so I'll try 5pt wins top 3 and hope kitty pulls something on the day 

1st and 2nd top 2 ....+20.00

[richard-westwood]

17 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

155 newb 

West balboa   8.7 7/2 

Lord baddesley   8.4 7/1 

Red risk   7.9  50/1  

Red risk is out of form ....has possible ew chance if could get things together but top 2 look strong so I'll try 7pts win West...3pts win lord 

Doubles on top 2 in all 3 races  .

Jeez ....Red risk !!!......and double too .....with first race and 1 race to come ....gonna be a jackpot day 

[richard-westwood]

7 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

Jeez ....Red risk !!!......and double too .....with first race and 1 race to come ....gonna be a jackpot day 

R4 40p but I think he will be settled at 30/1 rather than 50 /1 .....which is 217 pts .....plus the single 30 is 247 ....if other race wins it could double though ....

[richard-westwood]

23 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

Coral gold cup 

Le milos    9.0 9.2 betfair 

Fiddleronroof  8.8 11.5 

Fanion destruval   8.4 25/1 

Gericault roque    8.3  

5pt wins top 3 and 6x rev forecasts top 3 

 

20 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

120 newb 

Zanza    8.5  6/1 

Demachine  8.3  7/1 

Kitty's light   8.1 25/1 

Kapcourse 7.9 

Close race .....any one of these 4 could be a potential winner .....kitty's light has a, definate squeak at a big price so I'll try 5pt wins top 3 and hope kitty pulls something on the day 

 

4 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

West non runner .....I'll increase stakes on lord baddeley to 5pt ew ...and have a small 1pt ew on red risk 

3/3 with zanza ...Red risk and le milos all winning and doubles too on all 3 ......feels like bit of a coup really as earlier in the week remember I said courses were misrepresenting goings at courses and Newbury yest said going was good but stick was 5.5 and my friends messaged me saying ground was obviously soft and asked me to set ground to soft today for the ratings and this is what happened  ...still advertising good and watered tge course too !!!!....its a joke ......well today I used it against them and its made us 636 -60 pts stake ....around +576.00 .....that'll teach em lol ? 

[Villa Chris]

Well done Rich 

[MCLARKE]

2 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

I should have stated that this is the forecast price. I don't use the SP because we don't know what this is until the off and it is therefore of no use if we want to select the horse prior to the race and take the early price.

To clarify, when I analyse past races I use data that can be used when selecting current races.

SP cannot be used when selecting current races.

[kensland]

Wolverhampton 

Single. 

8.20. Snapcrackleandpop     12/1      3rd

Lucky 15.

5.50. Way to Amarillo     5/1...2nd

6.50. Justcallmepete       4/1   3rd

5,.20. Yaahobby               2/1    2nd

6.20. Roaring Success     5/1   1st 

.........................

Lucky 15.

4.20. Emperor  Zen     6/1   3rd

4.50. Soaring Eagle       9/4....2nd

7,20. Crocodile Power     7/2   5/1     1st 

7.50. Miss Calculations    6/4.   Unpl

Good luck all. 

 

Edited November 26, 2022 by kensland