Racing Chat - Saturday 10th December

[The Brigadier]

We’re very much in the lap of the gods (or Jack Frost I suppose!) as to which if any of the two ITV televised meetings will take place on Saturday. Both hold inspections and when the fleece covers come off the ground is likely to be riding on the slow side of good. Seven races are covered by Ed and the gang and here’s my early thoughts with a strong bet at Doncaster.

 

Doncaster 1.30

Nine have declared for this 2m 1/2F Summit Juvenile Hurdle but with six of the nine also declared for the opener at Cheltenham today is a race very hard to evaluate until we see who’ running where. On what they’ve achieved there’s not much between Milton Harris’s Scriptwriter and Joseph O’Brien’s Nusret and with the difference in price I would rather be with the former who was a 12lb better horse on the level when with Aidan O’Brien and has done little wrong in two spins over timber winning both at Sedgefield and Cheltenham. He’s the pick for me but let’s maybe wait to see who’s running where.

 

Cheltenham 1.50

The day’s feature handicap is the December Gold Cup, a handicap chase run over 2m 4F which has attracted a decent sized field of fourteen. Last month’s Paddy Power Gold Cup looks the best form guide with five of the field re-opposing today. Il Ridoto did best of the quintet in finishing 4th beaten 5L despite a bad blunder at the last. A reproduction of that effort will put him bang in the picture here for trainer Paul Nicholls and jockey Harry Cobden. Just 3/4L behind him was Alan King’s Deyrann De Carjac and he too has each way claims. Simply The Betts, owned and ridden by David Maxwell, was back in 7th with Kerry Lee’s Storm Damage a place and 4 1/4L further behind. Today’s top weight Stolen Silver wasn’t done with when falling three out and is another who can make his presence felt here. Il Ridoto would be my pick of that five and should run a big race. I’ll dutch him here with Nicky Henderson’s tough mare Fantastic Lady who beat the subsequent winner Zambella last time over three miles and may appreciate dropping back to this intermediate trip. The Irish are represented by Norman Lee’s Sole Pretender in an open race and with a decent 5lb conditional on board is yet another with claims in a wide open contest.

 

IL RIDOTO 1 point win @ 9/2 bet365

FANTASTIC LADY 1 point each way @ 8/1 bet365 1/5th 1234

 

Cheltenham 2.25

Bar rank outsider Zoffanien (who’s declared to run on Friday), four smart hurdlers assemble for this year’s renewal of the Unibet International Hurdle run over the minimum trip of two miles and has been won by some smart types over the years. Nigel Twiston Davies has an excellent record in the race winning four of the last nine and saddles his improving five year old I Like To Move It with his son Sam taking the reigns. Last seen winning the Greatwood Hurdle over course and distance under 12 stone by 5 1/2L four weeks ago he should be thereabouts despite a penalty of 4lb. Nicky Henderson runs a brace with Epatante the more fancied ahead of Gerry Feilden winner First Street. The former is a top class mare who won the 2020 Champion Hurdle and was placed the following two years. Her slick jumping has been very much her weapon over the years and it was no disgrace to be left behind by her stable freak Constitution Hill in the Fighting Fifth at Newcastle on her reappearance a fortnight ago. She is without doubt the one to beat. Paul Nicholls runs his improving hurdler Knappers Hill a good winner at Chepstow and Wincanton but has never run at Cheltenham so there are questions to answer there. Officially Epatante is 5lb and upwards superior at these weights to her rivals and I’ll take her to take this under her regular rider Aidan Coleman.

 

EPATANTE 2 points win @ 6/4 BetVictor

 

Doncaster 2.40

Seven assemble for a fairly modest class 4 2m 3F handicap chase where the afternoon’s best bet lies. James Ewart is a very under rated trainer who saddles a nice type that he’s acquired from France in Heroique De Maulde. The five year old was a dual winner in his native country and ran a stormer on his stable debut following a 361 day lay off when going down by the shortest of margins to Hidden Commander who like the 5th (14L back) have won since. Sure to improve for that effort he looks over priced currently and is worth backing. His opposition looks modest to my eyes with 16/1 Catterick winner Getaway Luv and four runner Huntingdon handicap winner Maninsane the only pair on form to hold claims. The icing on the cake is the booking of Brian Hughes and he’s a confident selection.

 

HEROIQUE DE MAULDE 3 points win @ 9/4 Betfred

 

Cheltenham 3.00

Only six go to post for this Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle run over just short of three miles and an early trial for the Festival back here in March. Nigel Twiston-Davies’s Weveallbeencaught has been popular in the ante post market during the week and should be competitive following his third over 2m 5F here at the last meeting in his hurdling debut. The extra 3F will be very much in his favour for this very big animal. Paul Nicholls was saying some nice things about his Outlaw Peter after he had taken his field apart in a modest novice hurdle at Exeter last month and like Weveallbeencaught will relish the step up in trip. I favour him of the pair. Thomas Mor is an very interesting runner but also very hard to assess. A 57L winner last time at Wincanton in a race where the only real danger appeared not to perform at all. He shouldn’t be dismissed easily for in form David Pipe stable.

 

OUTLAW PETER 2 points win @ 2/1 William Hill

 

Doncaster 3.15

This six runner 2m 3 1/2F novices’ handicap hurdle must be a candidate for the worst race shown on terrestrial television this year! A moderate bunch where it might be worth a small bet on the Olly Murphy trained Ewood Park who ran as though the race was badly needed on his re-appearance at Southwell last month. Easy to back he ran better than his final finishing position when a 25L 4th of 5th. Milton Harris has his team in good form and saddles his handicap debutant in Gavroche D’Allier who’s third to Rubaud at Taunton was boosted by that one winning on Thursday. It’s a shocker of a race and I’ll go with Ewood Park owned by the McNeill Family who are presumably Blackburn Rovers Supporters.

 

EWOOD PARK 1 point win @ 4/1 William Hill.

 

Cheltenham 3.35

A cracking ten runner mares only handicap hurdle over 2m 4 1/2F which features last years one - two in Lucy Wadham’s Martello Sky and Paul Weber’s Indefatigable (also holds an entry on Friday’s card). Both are back on the same handicap mark and with the former blatantly failing to stay three miles last time looks poised to play a major part in the finish of the contest. Nicky Henderson runs his smart mare Theatre Glory who fell early on her re-appearance and is another who should be thereabouts. Harry Fry saddles his unbeaten Lady Adare who could be well handicapped whilst Alan King’s Nina The Terrier is also not out of this. A tough race with slight preference for Martello Sky who appears to have her optimum conditions and can follow up last year’s victory under Aidan Coleman.

 

MARTELLO SKY 1 point each way @ 5/1 William Hill 1/5th 1234

 

 

[richard-westwood]

On 12/6/2022 at 2:19 PM, richard-westwood said:

Just looking towards the weekend ....First pass of gold cup through the computer has thrown up... IL RIDOTO  as a good ew bet to begin with ....can get 6/1 .. I really was interested to see what woukd pop up especially if it ran well in paddy power and he finished 4th in said race...job done.....I have a feeling that might not last so I'll have an antepost 10pt ew to start 

Backed il ridoto eearlier in week but final rated the race and adjusted settings to good sft so it altered the ratings 

Simply the Betts   8.8 12/1 

Stolen silver    8.6  6/1 

Il ridoto      8.5  5/1 

War Lord     8.3   

Fantastic lady   8.2 

Tough tough race ....Happy with the 6/1 ew on il ridoto   ...but its hard to find a tag team partner for him .....stolen silver finished lame but was running OK until pulling up and was fav that day but its hard to judge...he could bounce back if issues sorted but the 12/1 around.... simply the Betts   just seems like an ew value bet to me ......war lord also has a,strong shout but I'll go 5pt ew simply the Betts and we'll see what happens ? 

[black rabbit]

Frero Banbou    1 50 Che/      1/10th pt win   11/1   

[jonjo]

At Cheltenham tomorrow:

3.35 Theatre Glory is the choice for the in form Henderson team. Let herself down with a bad jump and unseating last time out which means she gets in here off the same mark of 137 and with Nico back in the saddle (2/2) she has to go close here abck in against her own sex. Prior to her misahp when unseating she had won a Listed race in good style. I've taken 3/1 for her and may go in the place markets on betfair nearer the off if the prices are right.

3.00 Grand Soir is one not to be underestimated currently around 9.6 on betfair and is win and place material. Winner of his last two races in Ireland, is proven over the distance and the stable are no mugs when sending one over the water.

2.25 Eptante, I've taken 2.6 and 2.68 about Eptante, she will have come on bundles for her run behind stable mate Consitution Hill in the Fighting Fifth and is esentially taking on good handicappers who may improve of course, but they wil have to if tey are to getthere head in front tomorrow.

Might have another in the 1.10 but will have to wait until tomorrow as one or two in that race are also entered at Doncaster.

Godd luck tomorrow everyone.

[MCLARKE]

This weekend’s big handicap is the AIS December Gold Cup Chase at Cheltenham. This premier handicap is run over 2 miles, 4 furlongs and 127 yards and is open to horses aged 4 or older. Off time is 1.50 and 15 go to post.

Frodon has won this twice before going on to win at the Cheltenham festival. Coole Cody won this last year before going on to win at the festival at odds of 22/1.  

William Hill offer each-way terms of 5 places which makes the race an excellent betting proposition.

AGAINST THE ODDS

I have looked at the statistics over the last 9 seasons and these are my key conclusions.

1.       It is best to side with those horses in the middle of the market. Those horses with forecast odds less than 8/1 have a record of 0 wins from 29 runners. Those with odds greater than 12/1 have a record of 0 from 41. All the winners have been between 8/1 and 12/1 with 9 winners from 49 runners.  

2.       It is difficult to carry high weights in this race. Horses carrying more than 10st 10lb have 3 wins from 60 attempts compared to 6 from 40 for the lower weights.

3.       Experienced horses perform better than their less experienced opponents. Horses who have run more than 18 times have recorded 4 wins from 33 attempts compared to 5 from 87 for their less experienced opponents.

4.       It is helpful to have had a recent run. Only 1 horse (from 40 attempts) has won this after a lay-off of more than 28 days.

Only 1 horse matches these criteria, DEYRANN DE CARJACJ, available at 14/1.  

Further statistics that may prove relevant.

As already indicated favourites have a poor record (0 from 9). For 2^nd favourites it is 0 from 14.

The ideal age is 8, with 3 wins from 33 attempts.

Irish bred horses have the best record with 5 wins from 53 runners.

Paul Nicholls has the best record in this race with 5 winners in the last 13 years. This year he saddles Simply The Betts and Il Ridito.

[kensland]

Newcastle. 

Double. 

4.00. Apache Spark    5/1

4.30. Diocies of Rome     4/1

singles & double 

Good luck all. 

[kensland]

Cheltenham. 

Single. 

3.35. I Spy A Diva      9/1

Good luck all. 

[MCLARKE]

5yo selections

Lucky 15 in bold

COURSE	TIME	SELECTION	ODDS
Cheltenham	0.40	Monmiral	3/10
Hereford	1.22	Auditoria	15/2
Cheltenham	1.50	Il Ridoto	11/2
Doncaster	2.40	Heroique De Maulde	7/4
Newcastle	2.54	Enemy	1/4
Doncaster	3.15	Maillot Blanc	3/1
Newcastle	4.30	Ivatheengine	10/1
Wolverhampton	4.50	Intervention	7/1
Wolverhampton	5.50	Theotherside	20/1
Wolverhampton	6.20	King Charles	7/1

[Villa Chris]

14 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

Backed il ridoto eearlier in week but final rated the race and adjusted settings to good sft so it altered the ratings 

Simply the Betts   8.8 12/1 

Stolen silver    8.6  6/1 

Il ridoto      8.5  5/1 

War Lord     8.3   

Fantastic lady   8.2 

Tough tough race ....Happy with the 6/1 ew on il ridoto   ...but its hard to find a tag team partner for him .....stolen silver finished lame but was running OK until pulling up and was fav that day but its hard to judge...he could bounce back if issues sorted but the 12/1 around.... simply the Betts   just seems like an ew value bet to me ......war lord also has a,strong shout but I'll go 5pt ew simply the Betts and we'll see what happens ? 

Ive got it very similar 

Simply The Betts 9.53

IL Ridoto 9.39

Stolen Silver 9.22

War Lord 9.14 

Im only siding with one though and I think IL Ridoto has Simply The Betts beat on their last race  and he’s 1Ib better off from their last race beating Simply by 8 lengths.  
 

5 points IL Ridoto 

Edited December 10, 2022 by Villa Chris

[Villa Chris]

Cheltenham 1.15 , Third Time Lucki 6/1

Im not his biggest fan, but always felt he could go well in handicaps and todays mark of 147 will see him go close I think. He rides Cheltenham very well. 
 

Cheltenham 1.50 , IL Ridoto 5/1

 

more to follow hopefully 

 

[Villa Chris]

Looks like Cheltenham is off . My bets have just been voided . Thought they would have survived but oh well 

[richard-westwood]

26 minutes ago, Villa Chris said:

Looks like Cheltenham is off . My bets have just been voided . Thought they would have survived but oh well 

Only all weather on ...that's disappointing ...was looking forward to seeing what was going to happen ...oh well ....its not a shock its half inch of frost outside my door ? 

[calva decoy]

1 hour ago, Villa Chris said:

Looks like Cheltenham is off . My bets have just been voided . Thought they would have survived but oh well 

It'd only have been spoilt by a low sun & turned into glorified bumper racing though , it's Saturday , plenty of football to watch & Stateside tonight after England have beaten the French on penalties ?

[Villa Chris]

Hereford still hangs in the balance. Couple of class 2s there I was going to look at, but I’ll wait for the green light first .

[Sporting Sam]

Out all day, but hope to be back in time for wolves 6.50. I'm working on a system called Alexander method. It is physics based, this race might not be suitable we'll see. Nice winner at Dundalk in sandcastle last night although not a system runner, but dundalk is made for Alexander selections. There is a tipsters ( Hugh) selection of my brother Mike which will take a chunk out of the market.

I'll certainly take every horse into consideration when assessing this race, draw, form, weather, weights etc and of course physics.....

The system provided a group 1 winner on here last Saturday in Amelia's Jewel, so it does work.

Enjoy your day

 

Edited December 10, 2022 by sporting sam

[calva decoy]

There's a very classy card at Sha Tin early tomorrow morning with lots of UK riders out their hoping to bag the big pay packets on offer & plenty of study time , I think that Hong Kong Jockey Club have a very good well detailed informative website .

[jonjo]

Isnt it bloody awful when all you are left with is All Weather meetings at this time of year, still its what we've got...

Three Stable Switchers that may be of interest: The last one is on a bit of a drift though.

Good luck whatever you decide on today. And good luck to England this evening ?

Dingle (IRE)	1.09 Newcastle.........meeting cancelled	9/2
Cicely (IRE)	3.50 Wolverhampton...finished second, nutted on the ine, hit 1.3 in running.	5/2
Carlotta (IRE)	4.20 Wolverhampton........hit 1.25 in running, another one placed.	4/1

Edited December 10, 2022 by jonjo

[kensland]

Wolverhampton. 

Single. 

3.50. Cicely     9/4   2nd 

Good luck all. 

Edited December 10, 2022 by kensland

[MCLARKE]

1 hour ago, jonjo said:

Isnt it bloody awful when all you are left with is All Weather meetings at this time of year, still its what we've got...

I can't say I enjoy watching the all weather but I do tend to make more money on it.

[azzybear]

star shield 1.09 

[MCLARKE]

BET365 4/1 TV offer selections

NEWC	1.44	Imperial Ace (4)	6/1
NEWC	2.19	Wonder Legend (9)	9/2
NEWC	3.28	Golden Rainbow (6)	14/1

[calva decoy]

Blimey , even the all weather meeting at Newcastle is off now , hope Wolverhampton makes it ?

[jonjo]

53 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

I can't say I enjoy watching the all weather but I do tend to make more money on it.

I quite like the all weather, much more consstant than the flat. Just that I prefer to watch Cheltenham when its on, I see Newcastle is off now!!

[black rabbit]

58 minutes ago, calva decoy said:

Blimey , even the all weather meeting at Newcastle is off now , hope Wolverhampton makes it ?

 

50 minutes ago, jonjo said:

I quite like the all weather, much more consstant than the flat. Just that I prefer to watch Cheltenham when its on, I see Newcastle is off now!!

spoke with a stable staff member who was there with a runner { at 8' clk this morning } said IHO  there was never any chance of racing going ahead

and that was at 8'ish    why wait till 30 min before the off??

[calva decoy]

1 hour ago, black rabbit said:

 

spoke with a stable staff member who was there with a runner { at 8' clk this morning } said IHO  there was never any chance of racing going ahead

and that was at 8'ish    why wait till 30 min before the off??

I'd imagine a lot of wasted travel time / fuel etc... for trainers , grooms travelling up there .

Wonder what chance of tomorrow's card there taking place & or if not will the decision be made earlier ?

[Tedthewolf]

https://www.racingpost.com/news/latest/we-need-a-miracle-but-im-not-sure-its-coming-more-fixtures-likely-to-fall/591607

[kensland]

Couple of Patents.

5..20. Tarjamah    5/2     1st 

4.20. Turbo Tiger    6/4...unpl

4.50. Abbey Heights   2/1    unpl

---------------------------

5.50. Jilly Cooper    11/4  2nd 

6.20. Bird for Life        5/2   3/1     1st 

6.50. My Brother Mike     7/2     2nd 

Good luck all. 

Edited December 10, 2022 by kensland

[azzybear]

credit note 5.20 

[azzybear]

queen of Burgundy 5.50 ew 

[Sporting Sam]

 

Wolves 6.50

These are both  Alexander system selections

RAVENSWING 

Each way

An interesting runner hardly beaten a rival.

Ridden by jockeys to instruction thus far.

Headgear on now and enter Luke Morris.

CLASSY DAME 

Each way

Superiority over a key rival in this race and by some way.