Smiles Tennis
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Posts posted by Smiles Tennis
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Cornet to beat Rus 2.48 with Pinnacle
Cirstea to beat Sakkari - 2.6 with Unibet
No time for write ups, sorry.
- CzechPunter, ThunderDan9 and yossa6133
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1 hour ago, Schokolade2 said:
So close.
I have had so many recently that lost but it was 6-7 or 5-7 in a third set. Might be worth just going for them to win a set instead of winning the match.
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Vekic to beat Alexandrova - 2.83 with Pinnacle
Both are decent indoors, both not been in great form. Vekic beat her last time they played. I would have these odds a little closer.
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Zidansek to beat Volynets - 3.4 with Bet365
Volynets hasn't got a top 100 win since beating Cornet last May I think it was and although Zidansek only just creeps in there, Volynets shouldn't be as low as 1.4 here.
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C. Gauff to beat A. Sabalenka - 2.92 with Betfair
Gauff can win ugly if needed and Sabalenka has huge problems in Slam semi finals. Little bit of value for me here.
- CzechPunter, amity, Foo_Fighter and 1 other
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D. Yastremska to beat V. Azarenka - 3.60 with Betfair
- CzechPunter, amity, ThunderDan9 and 1 other
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2 hours ago, Swami said:
Good call. Every time I watch Mirra Andreeva playing I see her becoming a good player… but the “next big thing”? I don’t think so… she might find some space in the contemporary WTA, which is in general very low quality in comparison with the past decades, but nothing more
She'll be a comfortable top 20 player and win a few trophies along the way, probably a slam at some point as she's so young and is decent with so much time on her side.
- four-leaf and CzechPunter
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Quick picks
Rus to beat Kalinskaya 3.25 with Betfair
Maria to beat Paolini - 3.20 Bet365 / Unibet
- ThunderDan9 and CzechPunter
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I am going for:
Cocciaretto to beat Sun - 1.81 with Pinnacle
Sun plays lower level tennis and shouldn't be this low against a top 70 player in a grand slam. In 13 matches against the current top 100 going back to May 2022 she's won 2. Against Boulter indoors and against a very out of form Blinkova in September.
Gadecki to beat Stephens - 2.82 with Pinnacle
Gadecki had a tight first set against Rybakina before going three sets with Qinwen, she's at home and will have the crowd behind her against someone who only turns up half the time. Stephens should be favourite but 1.53 is too short for me.
Minnen to beat Tauson - 3.09 with Pinnacle
Tauson has only one victory against someone in the top 150 in her last 12 matches. Her last 5 defeats have come against players ranked 123, 235, 118, 371 and 526. She also hates the heat and her fitness takes a back seat when it's hot. I don't see how she's 1.41.
Yuan to beat Boulter - 2.44 with Pinnacle
Yuan has played much more on hardcourt than Boulter. Boulter lost in R1 last week while Yuan reached the SF in Hobart beating Putintseva, Sloane, Xinyu and Podoroska on the way. Her last two defeats were against Navarro and Martic who are much better than Boulter. Last year she finished reaching 4 finals in a row (some at lower level) so should be confident.
Boulter should have the edge but not by this much.
- Torque, CzechPunter, ThunderDan9 and 2 others
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On 7/27/2022 at 9:06 PM, Torque said:
Seems like this might need to be bumped.
😮I thought this was a new post after yesterdays action. But no. Still, worthy of a bump and 100% agree with it, as I was on the receiving end of it in the past and don't post as much now.
- harry_rag, CzechPunter and Torque
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Jeanjean to beat Lys - 5.00 with Bet365
Huge price for Jeanjean who is only ranked 4 places lower than Lys, has also won in qualifying so far and has an 8-4 hardcourt record in slam qualies. These should be closer.
Sonmez to beat Sun - 2.41 with Pinnacle
Again should be closer, I make this more a 50/50 match so 2.41 is value on Sonmez.
- ThunderDan9, Larkin22 and CzechPunter
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7 hours ago, Torque said:
Alexandrova played last week. But as she lost in straight sets to a clay court player your bet still looks good to me.
Sorry, I meant to write hasn't played well for a long time.
- ThunderDan9 and four-leaf
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Two for tonight for me.
Adelaide, Linette to beat Alexandrova, 2.33 with Unibet. Alexandrova hasn't played for a long time and I would make this a 50/50 match.
Hobart, Yuan to beat Stephens 2.70 with Unibet. Sloane can't be trusted at the best of times and Yuan likes playing on the hard court and has come through qualifying here.
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Colina matches
Mandlik to beat Parry - 2.46 with Betfair
Podoroska to beat Bejlek - 1.85 with Betfair
No time for write ups tonight
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L. Pigossi to beat E. Mandlik - 3.1 with Unibet
Mandlik only has two wins against players ranked in the top 270 since early September. Pigossi is back on clay after a mediocre hard court period but can cause problems to make me think she should be a shorter price than this.
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Colina - M. Lourdes Carle to beat D. Parry - 2.57 with Pinnacle
Parry was on a 7 match losing streak before dropping down to 25k level to build some confidence, reached the SF but lost to #280, then played a 60k and lost in the final to #224 so she's not at her highest level yet. Lourdes Carle has won 8 of her last 10 matches, all on clay, winning a 40k title in the process.
Parry might have the edge but she's a bit short for me on current form.
- CzechPunter and four-leaf
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WTA Colina - Starodubtsewa to beat Errani - 2.38 with William Hill
Starodubtsewa has climbed the rankings well this year when she started playing again, winning lower level tournaments, while Errani is approaching retirement and I think the odds should be closer than this.
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Rybakina to beat Sabalenka - 2.52 on Betfair
Rybakina has won their last two meetings despite being in worse form, so I think she should be shorter than this tonight.
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Ostapenko to beat Qinwen Zheng - 2.62 on Betfair
Also Kudermetova to beat Samsonova - 2.66 on Betfair
Both too high in my opinion.
- Torque, CzechPunter and ThunderDan9
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6 minutes ago, four-leaf said:
Well then don't recommend people betting on it then. It's a pretty big difference between me posting Ben Shelton winning in 2 sets last sunday at 3.10 and you posting Donna or Daria to win today because I could quarantee Shelton winning in 2.
You can't guarantee anything. I don't recommend people bet my bets, I just share them. People can do what they want.
- harry_rag, ThunderDan9, motorhead66 and 1 other
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18 minutes ago, four-leaf said:
As you could expect of all matches from Zhuhai today, very tight. I can agree that the odds are favoring one player too much when it is as we see, really 50/50 but if you could turn the odds around it would feel much better for me if someone says this isn't 50/50. It's a clear case of Donna or Daria to be winners. So @Smiles Tennis I rather prefer if you say it's more a case of the wrong favorite since nobody likes to bet on something that's 50/50 in everyones eyes.
I didn't think it was the wrong favourite. I just didn't think Zheng should be a low as 1.3.
Zheng will probably win, but the amount of times Vekic would win this at this price would be profitable.
- ThunderDan9 and Torque
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3 minutes ago, four-leaf said:
As always between top players it's a fine margin between the winner and the loser
I agree. And that's why I often think odds should be closer than they are and I back the underdog.
And in regards to your previous comment, the bookies set those odds because of the amount of money that gets bet on the players at certain prices let's them know whether the player should have a better chance of winning than what they've priced it as.
I see the first of my hopeful bets just won, Kasatkina at 2.7. I thought that was too high and the match would be closer. This time she won. 😁
Tennis Tips - February 5 - February 11
in Tennis Betting Tips & Predictions
Posted
Haddad Maia to beat Jabeur - 2.42 on Betfair
Haddad Maia can grind Jabeur down. Ons hasn't been great for a while and if her drop shots aren't firing then she can struggle.