Smiles Tennis
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Posts
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Posts posted by Smiles Tennis
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-5.82 points which cancelled out the decent day before!
No time in the morning to do the picks at the moment.
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2 hours ago, neilovan said:
Rune looked slightly injured. Watson winning and her opponent quits. That is 9 of those retired when winning to 0 retired when losing bets.
Use a bookie that pays out if a point in played or first set completed?
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Two more, that's it for today. Watson match starting soon. Cali later.
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33 minutes ago, lelit said:
Does your system pay attention to player injuries? Willingness to be ready for Wimbledon in a moment?
Ostapenko had serious calf problems yesterday, limping for 1.5 sets. Tsurenko retired twice in the last 4 matches.Those factors, if well known by the public like the ones you mentioned, will already be priced into their pre match odds so yes, it's taken into account. I don't make any extra adjustments for injuries for this reason.
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+1.85 points.
Total staked (1 pt per bet) 274
Profit: 15.89
ROI: 5.8%
Today's picks. Might be one or two more later for the late afternoon/evening matches.
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Just the one pick for Cali later.
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-4.65 points. Two of those losses were grass which wouldn't normally be picked as of now. If there was no grass selections since using the algorithm then the profit for the last 12 days would have been just over 13.5 points so going forward will hopefully see this continue.
Total staked: 263
Profit: 14.04
ROI: 5.3%
Three Blois matches carried over to today.
Cali matches to be done at lunch.
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Just now, four-leaf said:
@Smiles Tennis 1. Don't trust your algoritm blindly. 2. Watch some streams for free ITF/Challengers.
I use the algorithm so that I don't have to spend all my free time watching tennis. The algorithm is never going to pick 100% winners so losses don't bother me as long as I'm profitable, which I am.
Good luck with your betting.
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5 minutes ago, four-leaf said:
If you consider or if your algoritm considers Caijsa "value" today I say that's the worst value I've ever seen anyone or anything pick. Kaia has never lost to anyone from Norway, Denmark or Finland ranked where Caijsa is ranked or has been ranked before. Not even if you go back 20 years. Both meetings in todays matchup 2019 and 2021 Kaia won 6-2 6-1 and 6-1 6-1. So would you please consider at least to rethink or hessitate on whatever your algoritm is saying.
If I start making a loss I'll reconsider. At the moment it's making a profit so I'm happy. I'm not debating it anymore, we all do things differently. Remember, 7-8 on clay over odds of 3.00 though 😉
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13 minutes ago, four-leaf said:
Have you even noticed that Caijsa hasn't beaten anyone ranked top 100 anytime?
No but ranking doesn't concern me in the slightest. I don't use my opinion of the players in the slightest. It's purely maths and stats based and there's lots of losing bets every day, at the moment the payout from the winners is more than covering them though.
I admire your determination to make me admit she's crap and she probably is, I've never watched her play.
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1 minute ago, four-leaf said:
Caijsa is in decline already at 22 years old and wont reach any higher than top 250 for years ahead. She's not profitable even if you happen to figure out she's able to win as an underdog sometimes. Kaia is also in decline but facing players that have none of the talent available isn't gonna make her throw in a shocking performance. And please don't say Kaia throws in shocking performances even if she's losing to someone ranked below 300 like Caijsa since many players in the lower part of the rankings doesn't lack ability to beat anyone around 50-150 in the world.
She is profitable. That's facts. She's 7-8 on clay at odds over 3.00. Deny it all you want but if you backed her over 3.00 on clay for the last 3 and a half years you'll have a nice profit. It doesn't matter if your think she's crap, she still earns a profit.
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1 minute ago, four-leaf said:
Trust me smiles Caijsa Wilda will not produce a long term profit...
But opposing Kanepi in certain situations does. She was about 1.34 or something today, she's already lost three times this year at sub 1.25. You never know when they throw a shocking performance in. I thought I would look up Caijsa record, she's won her last three matches when her odds were higher than 3.00. She probably will lose today, but there will be times when she will win as underdog. I just checked further, if you backed Caijsa at odds over 3.00 going back to the start of 2020, you would have a profit of 10 points. She's good for a long term profit at high odds.
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17 minutes ago, four-leaf said:
@Smiles Tennis I wish to see Caijsa Wilda beat Kaia K but even in a W40 in Ystad it's pretty hard to see Caijsa develop into something like Mirjam Bjorklund. Kanepi doesn't sound like the player many can beat in Ystad. I mean we've got Astra Sharma, Reca Luca Jani and Kawa and Sharma awaits if Caijsa wins today and then Kawa then probably Jani on sunday. Caijsa wont beat Sharma or Kanepi most likely. If I'd bet on Caijsa it'd be wishful thinking from my side.
It's just a pick the algorithm pulled up, they're not people who I think will win, just that they should be a value price and produce a long term profit.
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Last three for the day. One after lunch, the rest later.
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-2.29pts.
Total staked: 250
Profit: 18.69
ROI: 7.5%
No grass picks anymore unless original criteria is met. Spent couple of hours digging deeper and researching more and it doesn't work out for the amount of work it will take and the changes needed to get picks. Two matches rolled over to today from yesterday. Cali picks will be done at lunchtime.
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One for this evening. WTA Zaragoza - Vicens Mas to beat Ovcharenko - 1.3EDIT: scrap this, it's now tomorrow so it will be on the spreadsheet in the morning.
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3 minutes ago, delfino said:
Bet won! Yes you are correct. But the worth the risk bet, is always backed by observations on players bahavior. There is always a background supporting the worth the risk bet.
I am so happy! Now i am preparing for the Wimbledon!
In addition, i announce to the forum that i am now business pair with the fantastic and the most intelligent ever woman in the world, miss Magda from Poland1
You will see us in our you tube videos soon, from October .2023. I will let you know!
Well that's value that you believe in then. I'm happy to help you realise your trust in value. 😁 and congratulations.
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The rest of today's/this evenings picks.
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30 minutes ago, delfino said:
Mister Tsitsipas is the useless player ever as ranked five. He simply cannot use his backhand 👉he is simply vunrelanboul to all average to good players. Not even need to mention the top players! Here on grass the conditions are even unfortunate for him. His backhand was terrible against barrere. His service is not that effective as you may think. I watched a lot of that match. Jarry for me is the best of the day. Jarry @3 to beat Tsitsipas. I call it as worth to risk case, but not a value bet, because I reject value theories 😉 weii, Jarry worth to risk with maximum confidence! Good luck my punters!.
Why is it worth the risk? Because of the payout if it wins?
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+0.35 pts yesterday.
Total staked: 218 pts (1 pt per bet)
Profit: 20.98
ROI: 9.6%
ROI getting closer to expected (3-10%). Top three matches for today's picks were carried over from yesterday.
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Last three for the night.
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four more.
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+2.67 points yesterday with just Stricker still in play to be finished.
Total staked (1 pt per bet): 196
Profit: 21.63
ROI: 11%
Todays picks to mid afternoon matches.
Tennis Tips - June 26 - July 2
in Tennis Betting Tips & Predictions
Posted
WTA Eastbourne - Osorio to beat Rogers 2.32 with Betfair
Osorio has a couple of matches under her belt here after beating Bucsa and Watson in qualifying. Rogers yet to play on grass and hasn't won a match for two months since beating Bogdan in Madrid. Osorio can hopefully expose Rogers' movement on this surface.