Smiles Tennis
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Posts posted by Smiles Tennis
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WTA Paris - Parry to beat McNally - 2.00 with Betfair
Parry has been serving better this week and with the home crowd on her side I think she edges this one. McNally has played well but favours indoor hard rather than clay and Parry might just be entering some decent form before the French Open.
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4 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:
Fortunately it stopped raining!
Yep. I'm watching a bit now, maybe 30 mins I can do.
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Have they put it off till tomorrow yet?
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WTA Rome Rybakina to beat Kalinina 2-0, 1.95 with Betfair
Kalinina has spent an extra 3.5 hours on court at Rome compared to Rybakina. She's battled and fought her way through 3 setters, it's taken everything she's got. Rybakina has had a walk in the park really with retirements going her way and Ostapenko just being herself.
Rybakina has the serve firing, her ground strokes will pound over the net and after a few games I think Kalinina will realise she can't do another long battle against a player of her calibre.
Rybakina in two for me.
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WTA Paris - Noskova to beat Parry - 1.5 with Betfair
Parry's been in horrible form recently and although she reached the SF in Zagrab 60K the highest ranked player she beat was #197 before losing to the #482 ranked player.
Parry hasn't beaten a top 100 player on clay since last July and hasn't beaten one on any surface since September. Noskova will target Parry's backhand and make life difficult for her. She retired against Rouvroy #309 but apart from that her full match defeats in the last three months are only by Gauff, Kvitova and Linette.
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WTA Paris - Volynets to beat Cornet - 1.94 with Betfair
Cornet who will surely retire soon has been in crap form this year. This is the first time she's reached a third round or further this year and lost 6-0 6-2 to the #156 a couple of weeks ago.
Volynets is at the other end of her career and on the way up mostly. She reached the SF in Saint Malo at the start of this month and took a set off Cirstea in Rome. Volynets averages over 70% first serves and Cornet has lost 5/6 against players hitting an average of 70% first serves in, also, in four of those five defeats she was the favourite.
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On 5/16/2023 at 5:16 PM, Smiles Tennis said:
WTA Rome Rybakina to beat Swiatek 5.1 with Betfair
Swiatek should win on her fave surface but 5.1 is too big for Rybakina even though its on clay.
Got lucky with this one 😂
- alexcaruso808 and four-leaf
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WTA Florence - Paolini to beat Yastremska - 2.24 with Betfair
Both players don't favour clay but Paolini leads the h2h 4-1 (none on clay) and playing at home. Paolini pushed Rybakina for a close first set before losing so that would have given her confidence.
Yastremska won 6-3 7-5 against the number 296 wild card entry and still gave up 8 break points and with her opponent winning 59% first serve points and just 36% second serve points, Yastremska could only win 4/9 break points herself.
I think Paolini is worth a shot at these odds.
- CzechPunter, four-leaf and Robinnho
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WTA Rome - Ostapenko to beat Badosa - 2.6 with Spreadex
This one is on Ostapenko's racket. She can fire everything and beat everyone or throw it all away. Badosa has improved recently but Penko has been firing more than not this week and 2.6 looks a good price for a player who is 6-7 as underdog since the start of last year (2-2 on clay).
- four-leaf and CzechPunter
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Posted last night in last week's thread so copied it here.
WTA Rome - Haddad Maia to beat Osorio - 1.81 with Betfair
Haddad Maia is levels above Osorio who is having a storming week. Maia is 55-18 on clay since the start of 2021 so she's no slouch on the dirt. Osortio got through mainly because Garcia had a mental breakdown during the match. She's now been on court for almost 8 and three quarter hours in Rome and Haddad Maia will be the toughest test she's faced yet.
WTA Rome - Kasatkina to beat Ostapenko - 2.44 with Betfair
Kasatkina had a tough time against Grabher who was hitting everything well today. Ostapenko routed Krejcikova who fell apart when winning 5-1 in the first set and too much credit is being given to Ostapenko for this I think. She should be a slight favourite but Penko needs to be firing to win and that doesn't always happen. Kasatkina grinded her way through that match and served well from the bits I saw. She will need to serve well to not drop the ball in Penkos striking area but 2.44 is good for me to back her to win.
- four-leaf and CzechPunter
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@CzechPunter Can you move my two picks in last weeks thread to this weeks again please?
No worries mate, I just copied it below. 👍
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WTA Rome - Haddad Maia to beat Osorio - 1.81 with Betfair
Haddad Maia is levels above Osorio who is having a storming week. Maia is 55-18 on clay since the start of 2021 so she's no slouch on the dirt. Osortio got through mainly because Garcia had a mental breakdown during the match. She's now been on court for almost 8 and three quarter hours in Rome and Haddad Maia will be the toughest test she's faced yet.
WTA Rome - Kasatkina to beat Ostapenko - 2.44 with Betfair
Kasatkina had a tough time against Grabher who was hitting everything well today. Ostapenko routed Krejcikova who fell apart when winning 5-1 in the first set and too much credit is being given to Ostapenko for this I think. She should be a slight favourite but Penko needs to be firing to win and that doesn't always happen. Kasatkina grinded her way through that match and served well from the bits I saw. She will need to serve well to not drop the ball in Penkos striking area but 2.44 is good for me to back her to win.
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WTA Rome - Sakkari to beat Vondrousova - 2.54 with Betfair
Sakkari is 5-2 on clay this year losing to Pliskova in Stuttgart and Sabalenka in Madrid. Vondrousova is 7-1 on clay this year but that includes qualifiers and she's been sub 1.5 in all of them. She lost a set to Kanepi who is not playing well at the moment before Andreescu didn't even turn up to play.
Sakkari will be confident after her SF Madrid run and 2.54 seems a bit high for a top 10 player who is in fairly decent form with a SF on clay last week and a previous French Open semi finalist.
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Rome Kudermetova to beat Potapova - 1.95 with Betfair
Kudermetova the better player, in better form and recently beat Potapova as well.
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1 hour ago, sterziyskii said:
What yall think about Coric, Fritz and Musetti tomorrow?
Hanfman can be dangerous but Fritz is having a fine clay season and is the better player.
Coric should overcome Monteiro in his first match in Rome.
Musetti lost to Hanffman and Tsitsipas recently but I think he will overcome Arnaldi. He might go for a deeper run here in Rome. If he wins, he goes against Altmaier/Tiafoe, and after that against possibly Tsitsipas/Sonego.
Personally I don't like most of tomorrow's matches, so if you have any other ideas, please.
Don't follow ATP so can't help with an opinion but can dig out stats galore if you want. Here is Fritz v Hanfman match stats, for all matches in the last month, clay only. Gives you an idea of who's doing what well in the matches.
- CzechPunter and sterziyskii
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WTA Rome - A. Sasnovich to beat D. Vekic - 2.42 with Betfair
Sasnovich hasn't been in great form but her last three defeats were against Kenin (who seems to be getting some good form), Krejcikova and Bouzkova in a three setter who weren't bad players to lose to right now. She played some decent tennis against Fernandez as she took the three set win.
I am more worried about Vekic at this price. Vekic has played less than 20% of her matches on clay. She's lost her last two although Pliskova was not a bad defeat, Masarova should have been dispatched of. Sasnovich could continue her mixed (mostly bad) form, but I can't see how Vekic can be such a price given her average form and lack of clay matches.
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WTA Rome - Kontaveit to beat Samsonova - 3.00 with Bet365
Kontaveit has been injured and had an easy return last match against Parks who couldn't serve to save her life. She might still be too rusty to get a win here but at these odds I have to have a bite. The slower clay will take the edge off Samsonova's serve and groundstrokes and I have to have a go on Kontaveit here.
WTA Rome - Jabeur to beat Badosa - 2.48 with Betfair
Jabeur was injured against Swiatek but that was only a few weeks ago so she hasn't missed much tennis and was on a 7 match clay win streak before her retirement. Badosa has been playing well but Friedsam played well and took her to a third set tie break. Jabeur can cause much bigger problems for her and I like the look of her at this price.
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WTA Rome - Martic to beat Osorio - 1.8 with Betfair
Martic is the better player here, Osorio has dropped back down the rankings a bit since her HC points from 2022 came off (Finals in Tenerife and Monterrey). Osorio lost to Lauren Davis last time out on clay, in straight sets. She has come through qualifying here but has now spent more than five and a half hours on court in the last three days.
Martic won't be blasting her away and leaving Osorio to look for errors. She'll be mixing it up and moving her around the court with her all court game. Martic leads the way in clay only rankings #20 to Osorio's #117 and I think she will have too much for her today (or tomorrow with rain :))
Martic's last two defeats on clay were against Swiatek and Potapova, both higher level players than Osorio. 1.8 looks like value to me. I think she'll start the match under 1.7.
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3 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:
Nuria Parrizas-Diaz (+1.5 sets) to beat Veronika Kudermetova at 1.88 with Unibet
NPD managed to take a set off Kudermetova in Madrid not that long ago, and the conditions here should suit her even better. Moreover, Kudermetova is yet to play here, so another plus for NPD. Any rain (not much scheduled, but could happen) would be great as well.
Do you use Betfair? 2.02 on there for Diaz to win a set.
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3 minutes ago, Swami said:
I’m curious to see how many people will be out there supporting Giorgi, considered that at the same time there will be the Champions semifinal Milan-Inter, a big event here in Italy
Even better then. 😁
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WTA Rome - Rus to beat Giorgi - 2.48 - Betfair
Rus is far more experienced on the dirt than Giorgi, she's won over 70% of her points on clay. Giorgi, when playing players who've won over 70% of their points on clay, (so regular clay courters) on clay, Giorgi has lost 5/6 going back a few years with the win coming against Chiesa where she was a 1.14 odd fave.
Giorgi has only played one (well, half ) a clay match this year when she retired last match out against Sherif in the first round in Madrid. Giorgi will have the crowd but she's rusty and her fitness could be questioned here, I don't know what the injury was but Rus can make like difficult for Giorgi who has only reached the second round here once, back in 2014.
I think 1.66 is a little short on Giorgi here so backing Rus.
Tennis Tips - May 15 - May 21
in Tennis Betting Tips & Predictions
Posted
I've just seen she won by walkover. My bet will be void then. I'm assuming that's what you were referring to in your post? And not just the price?