Smiles Tennis
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Posts
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Posts posted by Smiles Tennis
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1 hour ago, Torque said:
Speaking from experience, you'll need thousands of bets before you know if you're on the right track. I know you've had a few goes at this sort of thing so my advice would be to persevere rather than tweaking all the time. When I say persevere I don't mean forever as that could lead to large losses, but at least until you reach a stop loss point.
Cheers, all just paper trading at the moment and seeing what happens. I understand what you mean in your other comment about the fave also ending up as losses, just more slowly. I think if the losses are huge and consistent with this method then paper trading the other method must be worth a try. No money down for a while yet, I will persevere with these picks just to see how it goes first.
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more picks, lets hope they keep losing so we can move forward with this method.
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54 minutes ago, harry_rag said:
Only following from a distance (checking in but not looking at the individual selections). Gut feel is too many picks in too short a time which suggests you either need to review the accuracy of the model in terms of identifying "true" odds or that the required edge for placing a bet is too small. It basically feels like something's off if you're identifying this many bets though that could be countered if it ended up showing a huge profit as the sample gets bigger!
I think it's way off with regards to actually finding true odds. The markets won't be that wrong and I wont be that right with just throwing (mostly) together an algorithm to pull stats and use that for price. It's looking more likely now that the picks are losing so often that it will be worth looking at backing the opponents instead.
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More picks
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Huge run of losses building so good data to look at.
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A run of losses means these early paper trading results swings back to the negative. Be nice if it keeps heading one way instead of swinging back and forth but time will tell if it's worth following properly one way or another.
Around 50 bets so far, another 50 or so and we might get a little idea of which way it might go. 200 would be better of course, and a month would give a much better picture.
Another 3 for this evening to keep an eye on.
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4 more picks.
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Four more picks up to the tea time matches.
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Three more selections for late morning/ lunch time
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Some winners saw the total turn a profit so long may this continue. Not as many selections this morning as its qualifiers and lower level so the stats aren't there to run the algorithm properly.
Still, we have four selections for this mornings matches. I will try and check afternoon matches before lunchtime.
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Couple more for later
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Some picks up to mid afternoon matches. Will try to check more later.
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One more selection for later this evening.
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One more for later
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Almost 4 points paper trading loss from the first days matches. These are selections up to tea time matches later. If I am around and the liquidity has increased a bit there might be some more for this evening.
One thing I have noticed is it's hard to get the predicted odds close to the Betfair odds when the fave is very short most of the time. Tsitsipas has been a bit close and therefore been a selection, but even having a little play with the parameters you have to make big changes to the influence of some factors to get a large difference in the predicted odds. This has been the case for many of the matches with the fave around 1.2.
Saying that I have just checked the Alcaraz v Evans match where Alcaraz is currently 1.07 (I don't usually check matches this short) and the algorithm gave Alcaraz 100%, so it can get a big enough difference if the data is there. More to look at and think about as we get more results in.
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Three more selections for this evening. 5/6 winners in the afternoon made it a bit of a better day than it originally looked like being.
Data to review though and that's the main point.
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Two more selections. I have also included a screenshot of the algorithm at work for the Hassan selection. Came out at around 50% but he is 2.52 so worth a pick. Not the brightest start for the first day of the trial but if it doesn't go really well then really bad can also work as we can trial backing their opponents instead!
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2 minutes ago, The Accountant said:
My email is [email protected]
I'll email you. Cheers
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23 hours ago, The Accountant said:
I'm completely open on staking strategies.
A fixed % of bank as a stake for a period until the bank grows say 25%; then re-adjust the fixed stake to the new bank would also appeal.
If you have a spreadsheet of all your previous selections I'm happy to run them through some software I have that tells you which staking plan is best to maximise results. Just let me know,
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More selections for today. A few matches the % prediction was almost spot on so no selection.
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Right guys, I'm back again. I have a bit more time on my hand, I'm always doing some thinking and some learning so here is my next go at finding something that works. As always it's tennis, and I want it to be set and forget as I don't have time to sit and trade matches all day and night.
This new way is using an algorithm to predict the match odds for tennis matches. Currently, some are fairly close, and some are a long way off. This is just the testing and trying from day one so adjustments will no doubt be made but let's see how it goes from the start.
The following are taken into account and weighted differently:
W/L for last year
W/L for last 2 years
W/L all time before that
Same three as above but just for the surface of the current match.
H2H games
H2H matches
Results from playing in current matches country in the past
Matches against the same nationality as opponent
Current form (10 matches)
Tiredness (matches in last 20 days)
Any recent retirements
Previous at this tournament.
(Edit: Ranking as well)
Because it's throwing up odds that are obviously not bang on current Betfair odds, there should be lots of selections. I will try to do as many matches as I can but early in the week sometimes might be hard with lots of matches to go through.
Currently paper trading, will use fictional £10 stakes for the purposes of the spreadsheet, and also just using the "what if" on Betfair so they will have 5% commission taken off as well.
Let's hope it's interesting and something to continue working on.
Wish me luck
- alexcaruso808 and harry_rag
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1 hour ago, harry_rag said:
That is generally the experience for long running and profitable threads in this section. I glance at yours but I’ve lost track of what you’re doing (had a recap now). The way you update could be more engaging and informative, there’s no context for anyone who looks in occasionally or is new to the thread, just selections, results and a bank update.
I’d suggest periodic updates along the lines of number of winners/bets, level stakes return and ROI. I tend to do something like that at least weekly.
I look in from time to time but as you say there's no full updates. I remember a post about how if the bank drops a certain amount it will be refilled from previous profits, but now I have no idea how many times if at all, that it's had to be reloaded. I glance at the latest post but then just move as I don't really know whats happening.
- MCLARKE and alexcaruso808
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They limited me a long time ago. ?
Tennis Tips - April 24 - April 30
in Tennis Betting
Posted
She's 18-1 if you include the Aussie Open Juniors final as well.