Smiles Tennis
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Posts posted by Smiles Tennis
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I have dabbled in things like this before but with tennis. It can work if you have enough data and lay a certain area. Let me explain, might be harder with racing. With tennis I would check the career results of players playing as underdog. Players don't usually continue to win as underdog, after a while they lose. When the players didn't have 3 wins in a row in their career as a dog, I would lay them and recover any losses on the following bet.
Should a player win 3 matches as a dog in a row then I take the hit and just wipe the slate clean.
The hard thing with tennis is that a certain player could lose two as a dog but then not play/be underdog for a long time again, so you have losses sitting there waiting to be "chased". As long as these don't build up too much it could work, maybe.
With racing it might be harder, chase by horses age? or racetrack? So you have say 10 tracks you follow and separate the betting sequences for each track. If faves at Kempton for example win a few in a row then take the hit. Other racetracks will hopefully make up some of the losses.
You will need the data and results for previous races though and sift through it all to find some patterns where faves don't continually win. Then start with a large bank and very small stakes like you mentioned. Whether the taking hit losses would be covered by other successful sequences is the question? I don't have the answer sadly. lol.
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OK, I am back again, this time with real money instead of paper trading. Using the same method of mean regression for each players performance over their career as explained in older threads.
Long term I still see it working, the data shows it works and maybe the last thread of paper trading (which roughly broke even) just hit a quiet patch.
This thread starting with roughly £500 (a little bit over) 2% per bet so £10.
I will try to post picks with time if I can. As soon as I have done a few I will share.
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WTA Nottingham Backing Zhang to beat Martincova @2.28 on Betfair.
Zhang a level above Martincova long term but getting older now so level not as high. Martincova just hasn't lit the tour alight, with some good results along the way though.
Martincova not in great form but has played well here for two matches, serving well. Zhang not been doing well on the clay but she also likes the faster surface.
Both will be aggressive, Martincova's fitness can let her down in longer rallies but that might not be a factor on grass. Overall I think it's a 50/50 match so taking Zhang here at odds against.
Edit: Zhang also finished runner up last year here, losing to Konta in the final.
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WTA Hertogenbosch - Backing Rybakina to beat Rogers @1.45 with Betfair.
Big serve, loads of power, grass court. All ends up being too much for Rogers who doesn't move well. Rogers does get some good results, but she also loses against some she should beat and I can't see her getting near Rybakina today.
Last year during the grass court swing, Rybakina lost to Muguruza, Ostapenko and Sabalenka. She gets out hit basically. That won't be happening with Rogers today.
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8 hours ago, CzechPunter said:
Ajla Tomljanovic to beat Katie Boulter at 1.58 with Pinnacle
Another straightforward bet from me for tomorrow, just don't see the appeal of Boulter, the hype is still there to a degree, but she's not playing as well as before and her most recent results suggest just as much.
Boulter is 1-5 on grass against the current top 50. And that win was against Alexandrova in 2018 when she was ranked #104.
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Few little stats for the Watson v Golubic match just starting.
Watson underdog stats are above of course as we discussed earlier.
Watson when losing first set? (any odds)? 3-19 on grass, not many comebacks happening.
Golubic when losing the first set, any odds? 3-15on grass, not many comebacks from her either.
Golubic on grass when fave? 14-9
I went deeper as lots of wins seemed to be very low odds.
Golubic on grass between 1.4 - 1.95? 3-6, not good.
Watson has lost 5 of the last 6 matches against Top 100 ranked players.
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WTA Hertogenbosch
Mcnally to beat Zidansek - 1.75 with Betfair.
Zidansek not great as a dog unless on clay where she has a positive record 14-13. On grass she's 1-4. Mcnally is 21-9 on grass and already played three matches here.
- Final1490 and CzechPunter
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5 minutes ago, Torque said:
Can you filter for British players on grass as underdogs? I'd have thought they would have generated a profit, but perhaps that's a bias on my part. Your tables are really interesting to answer questions like that.
Can't do British players together. Can only search individual players.
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2 minutes ago, Torque said:
Level stakes I mean. 14-30 can't be quantified as good or bad in betting terms without knowing the returns on the 14 winners against the 30 points of losers, for example.
I'll have to just total it, will be easy enough to put a formula in that counts Watson when in the winners side in the future.
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4 minutes ago, Torque said:
I wish she'd been terrible as an underdog on that bottom line. I remember I'd backed Mertens to win that tournament and I couldn't believe it when I saw Watson had won - although at the same time I could believe it because I've seen so many odds even shorter than that being turned over. It's interesting - but I suppose not surprising - to see from that sample that's she's worth backing as a dog on grass. Obviously it's a tiny sample, but I wouldn't be surprised to see it persist over a bigger sample.
14-30 as a dog on grass. some of the matches are off the sheet at the bottom.
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If any of you want any stats or data like above just let me know, only takes me 30 seconds. Any players, against certain nationalities, playing in certain countries, when they won or lost the first set (even by a set score), against certain rank, on certain surfaces, anything really.
So want to see Mertens' results as underdog after she wins the first set? no problem, what about that but only on hardcourt? Easy.
Just let me know and I will post it for you as quick as I can do it.
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2 hours ago, CzechPunter said:
Viktorija Golubic to beat Heather Watson at 1.62 with Pinnacle
Golubic seemed to have a good shot at beating Raducanu today, but we all know what happened. Watson will be a big step down, in any case, and the Brit has been struggling to string two decent performances together pretty much all season long. Golubic should outplay her knowing how erratic Watson can be these days, and the odds aren't too bad for that to happen.
Good shout, Watson as underdog is terrible. She won a couple when slight underdog, but look at her results when 2.2 or higher since the start of 2020, two and half years!
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Yeah Rogers should win but just can't have her at 1.27.
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Backing Tikhonova against Flipkens at 2.7. She should be fave imo. She's only played 3 matches on grass but two of those have been solid win in qualifying here. She's taking BPs quickly, not giving away too many either. Few losses recently but she's crap on clay. Before clay she won the title in Pretoria and SF in Irapuato. Flipkens is finished, the last time she reached a second round was Jan 2021 and even that was via LL after losing in qualifying. She hasn't played on grass for 3 years. I wouldn't put her as fave here.
Rogers is too short for me so taking Diatchenko. Rogers is a class above but Diatchenko likes the faster surfaces. Rogers isn't in great form and has a 10-15 record on grass. Her poor movement can be exposed. 1.27 is too short for me.
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Zhang is reliable as a fave as well. She has lost a few but she was a minimal fave in those matches. If you look at her results when she is 1.75 or lower, she usually gets the job done.
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8 minutes ago, Robinnho said:
So it is Zhang, the 33 yr-old Chinese veteran and not the 19 yr-old Zheng.
I agree with you that Zhang will beat Busca and could be in straight sets as she does not like to play a 3rd set with younger players (than her) and will try to win it in straight sets. Her stamina has deteriorated and she is not as fit as before.
Typo on the name, I was trying to do them quite quickly, I will double check next time! Good point about 3rd sets. She won in 3 in the final in Lyon but the few 3 setters she had before that she ended up being comfortably beaten.
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13 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:
Well, I think that Raducanu will have the crowd behind her, it's England after all, but it won't be as big as at Wimbledon. Still like Golubic due to her grass prowess, though.
Yeah that's what I meant, just not a big crowd that really gets behind them.
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Few morning picks. Mertens is several classes above Sanders and doesn't usually lose early in tournaments to players she shouldn't. She can have the odd mind mess but I make her a bit shorter than 1.36 so I will take that.
Raducanu I make about 1.7 so going with Golubic here. Golubic can play on grass, Raducanu has struggled for form recently and can't win many matches in a row. She won't have the crowd like at Wimbledon behind her so I think 1.53 or whatever she is is a bit short.
Linette leads the h2h here but two were from a long time ago. Kawa reached the final in Bonita Springs and got through qualifying here so has a bit of grass practice in the bag. Linette should take it but is a bit short that what I thought so going with Kawa.
Zheng vs Bucsa I make Zheng a bit shorter than 1.49 so taking that value. Bucsa come through qualifying but struggled against Bains. Zheng looks out of form with recent losses but they're on clay and were to decent players, Sabalenka, Giorgi, Halep etc, She won in Lyon on the faster surface so should be more comfortable here.
- gg-77, Torque, CzechPunter and 1 other
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41 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:
Or you can post in both!
Yeah i will do it here actually. I thought it would be harder to keep track of it all together in here with everyone else's picks but I can just post my spreadsheet with picks and write ups when I get time and move it over to the next week, it's not a problem. Here it shall be!
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OK I'll post it in the other forum. Cheers.
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Hi all,
I am going to start a new thread, picking what I think are value picks for WTA. I'll try to price the matches when I can and get any selections up with lots of time. Paper trading for a few weeks, then I might start with some money and small stakes.
Bets will be placed on Betfair when I start with money as I am limited at the soft bookies (not through my selections, but a service I used during covid), so should you follow at some point if it goes well, you'll probably get some nicer odds at the soft bookies if you check.
I will try and do a short write up when I get time, for now it's just selections.
Paper trading £100 bank with £2 selections for now as that is how I will start for real.
Opinions/discussions welcome
Hertogensbosch
Blinkova to beat Minnen - 2.32
Ann Li to beat Samsonova - 3.80
I have checked the morning matches. I will put them in a spreadsheet and post picks that way later on, how I did in the other thread in Betting Systems and Strategy.
Tennis Betting with Mean Regression Algorithm
in Betting Systems & Strategy
Posted
One more, backing Murray. Looks like it for today and I am out this afternoon anyway so might miss a late one if enough liquidity gets there.