Smiles Tennis
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Posts posted by Smiles Tennis
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For those following along with my picks, for May all the picks posted here ended as:
46 Selections
44 points staked (2 void)
10.59 points profit
ROI 24.1%
Average odds (after 2% betfair commission) 2.33.
I'll try and find some picks for tomorrow but as mentioned I'm on holiday and the WiFi is terrible and keeps cutting out so can't use my software for all the stats.
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On holiday this week so my research is limited to a quick look when the kids are in bed before I hit the sack.
Ostapenko to beat Stearns - 1.44 with Betfair
Pegula to beat Giorgi - 1.39 with Betfair
Pavlyuchenkova to beat Samsonova - 3.05 with Betfair
Kasatkina to beat Vondrousova - 3.2 with Betfair
- CzechPunter and Robinnho
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20 minutes ago, four-leaf said:
Ye that's your problem then if you just go by results. You need another mindset about how you look at players.
I make a profit though. When I use opinion more than stats I make mistakes. Results gets me profits for now but happy to change if it stops working.
- CzechPunter and Torque
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21 minutes ago, four-leaf said:
You are misreading that, Volynets is learning, she is not terrible. She's defenitely improving.
I will wait to see it. She only plays 31% or so of her matches on clay, against players currently ranked 100-200 she's only 8-10 and lost 3 of her last 5 of which was odds on fave for all of them. She needs to start regularly dispatching of those and winning some WTA matches before I consider her not terrible. I just go by results.
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23 minutes ago, four-leaf said:
@Smiles Tennis to some extension Volynets can play on clay anyhow Zanevska isn't the type of player to get anywhere far in WTA or GS. Zanevska just isn't good enough to beat any player in top 100 on clay.
I just looked at WTA matches. She's terrible.
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Shnaider to beat Marino - 1.58 with Betfair
As mentioned Marino doesn't play much on clay and she's worth opposing here imo. Shnaider is 67-21 on clay with Marino at 29-30, so Shnaider, who has just turned 19, has won more matches on clay in 3 years than Marino has played in her entire career spanning back to 2007.
Putintseva to beat Zanevska - 1.54 with Betfair
Putintseva is levels above Zanevska. Her defeats on clay this year have been against Riera (probable tank after winning the first set), Gauff, Garcia and Alexandrova. Zanevska has lost 9 of her last 11 matches with her last three defeats coming against an out of form Teichmann, an unranked Strycova and Volynets who can't play on clay.
- CzechPunter and Robinnho
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51 minutes ago, Swami said:
Favs I like tomorrow:
Pavlyuchenkova (too powerful for Linda imo)
Putintseva ( never liked Zanevska)
Stearns (Siniakova didn’t play a match since Miami, Stearns pretty consistent in the last matches, I could bet on a 2-0 here)
Kvitova (1.85 vs. Cocciaretto is a lot for a player that made the semis in 2020 and reached the 2R in the last 2 years, I understand she is not in a good shape, but the odds look good here)
Zapata Miralles ( if healthy he should win vs. Schwartzman, who lately is playing pretty bad)
Underdogs I like tomorrow:
Yastremska (could win at least 1 set imo)
Marino (not good on clay, but Shnaider is a teenager that never played a match in Europe, talented yes, but the odds look too generous to me here)
Bonaventure (Blinkova had a good run in Strasbourg, but Bonaventure sometimes can be a tough opponent, she might take at least 1 set)
Shang (played good qualis)
Popyrin (he should be fav vs. Karatsev imo)
Shnaider is 29-10 on clay playing in Europe. Lower levels but has experience of the travel and conditions etc, played at French Open Juniors as well last year.
Edit: thought I would check Marino on clay at tour level matches. She's 3-5 and five of those were in 2011, the last three are since 2022.
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Sakkari to beat Muchova 1.97 with Betfair.
No time for write up but I think she's fitter and more motivated today.
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Masaraova to beat Gauff - 4.7 with Betfair
Some short price faves are going to be beaten. Gauff I think is a good contender for this. She's been off form this clay season, she's defending Final points so might feel the pressure and Masarova is no slouch on clay. Does Gauff win this match 80% of the time in her current form? I don't think so, so Masarova is worth a shot.
Linette to beat Fernandez - 1.97 with Betfair
Fernandez is playing awful right now. She's attempting to change her serve motion and it's costing her, but she is determined to go with a lower throw and get more bend on it. She will revert to the high throw at times on break points but then carry on with the new style, and losing against anyone half decent. Linette should have this.
Cornet to beat Giorgi - 2.82 on Betfair
Giorgi doesn't prefer playing on clay. She pulled some good results out of the bag in Rome with the crowd behind her but here Cornet will have the crowd in what could be her last appearance here so will be all out to win and backing Giorgi at 1.52 on clay in France against a Frenchwoman who has played 220 matches on clay would make me feel uncomfortable. Giorgi has played just 76 matches on clay.
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55 minutes ago, four-leaf said:
Might have been one bet to many there on the week but move along, over to next week.. Don't over do it @Smiles Tennis
Just over 10 points profit for May for the picks I've posted here so happy with that as I've not followed the tennis for a while and a few days left for anything that looks interesting.
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Rabat Final - Grabher to beat Bronzetti - 2.38 with Betfair
Both on good runs to the final, both had a tanker opponent (Trevisan and Stephens), Bronzetti was in terrible form until the last two weeks but now playing well. When we look at clay only ranking it's Grabher #15 v #49 for Bronzetti. Bronzetti does have 2 WTA tour level finals but she lost them both. When we look at overall finals at all levels, Grabher is 12-13, winning her last five. Bronzetti is 5-7 and has lost 7 of her last 8 so mentally she might struggle in finals.
Overall titles at all levels Grabher 12 (11 on clay) v Bronzetti 5 (3 on clay). I make this a bit closer than the odds suggest and Grabher at 2.38 is value for me.
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Pera to beat Kontaveit - 1.94 with Betfair
I'm going with Pera here mainly because Kontaveit hasn't played much tennis. She's played three matches since 8th February and her only win came on clay against Parks which isn't hard. You need fitness and consistency to win on clay and Kontaveit will be rusty. 6-2 Kontaveit leads on tour level titles but none on clay, with Pera getting both her titles on clay. H2H is 1-1 with Pera getting her win last year, on clay as well.
Burel to beat Sorribes Tormo - 3.5 with Betfair
Burel might be a bit tired after her run to the SF in Strasbourg where she played well before losing to a resurgent Svitolina but she shouldn't be this high. Sorribes Tormo does lead the h2h with the win coming on clay last year but SST was ranked in the #40s then (#132 now). SST reached the final of the 100K Madrid last week but no outstanding wins, Fernandez is so poor right now that it's not hard to beat her and Danilovic smashed SST in the final with SST being a strong fave (1.28). Burel will have the home crowd, she's reached the third round previously (SST best is 2R in 2019) and I really can't see how Burel is 3.5 here.
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Bolsova to beat Zidansek - 3.00 with Betfair.
Zidansek had the good run to the SF a couple of years ago but hasn't been tearing it up on the dirt since. Bolsova has mixed results as well but some good wins. Zidansek should be fave but she's a little short for me.
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7 hours ago, Swami said:
I would have bet on Svitolina if the odds were a little bit higher, as she shouldn’t be too tired and has a real shot at winning the tournament, which would bring her around the 180 position… anyway, these pre RG tournaments are quite tricky… retirements, walkovers, poor commitment by many players
Yes, Svitolina played well yesterday. Her shots were flying and I can't see Burel having the weapons to trouble her. But I don't like backing less than about 1.7 now as I see to get them wrong whenever I do! lol
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Rabat - Bronzetti to beat Stephens - 2.9 with Betfair
Sloane isn't reliable enough on clay still to be this price. She's the better player but almost lost today and played the #237 ranked Babos and unranked Zvonareva in previous rounds.
Bronzetti isn't as experienced but has reached the SF here last year and has reached a clay final at Palermo before so hopefully nerves don't hit her too much. Worth a shot at 2.9 with Sloane being in the form she's in.
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Strasbourg - Blinkova to beat Davis - 2.13 with Pinnacle
Similar records on clay at tour level, Davis 23-36, Blinkova 12-16 but the extra matches won't give Davis an extra edge at that number. I think Blinkova is the value here as she is in better form this week with a great win against an in form Navarro. Davis was a bit lucky with Pavlyuchenkova lacking the fitness for three setters on clay after her injury because she would have lost otherwise, despite playing some great shots.
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WTA Strasbourg - Pera to beat Burel 2-0 - 2.34 with Betfair
Pera has won 18/19 on clay when favourite, 14 of those 18 were in straight sets. Burel meanwhile can move well but lacks power, lacks weapons and will try to moonball most things back into the centre of the court for Pera to dispatch as a winner.
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WTA Rabat - Rakhimova to beat Parks - 1.67 with Betfair
Parks is only half decent indoors and it was a close second set for her to beat Tikhonova ranked #236. Parks has lost 10 of her last 13 on clay when an underdog. Rakhimova on the other hand has won her last five matches as favourite on clay and all in straight sets. She's had a positive clay record for five of the last six years and should get past Parks today.
- CzechPunter and four-leaf
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WTA Strasbourg - Davis to beat Tomova - 1.94 with Betfair
Davis beat Tomova a few weeks ago on clay. Tomova did win an 80K on clay last month but since then results have been mixed with losses to Burel and Grabher. Davis lost her first match on clay this year to Sebov but after that has lost to Cirstea twice and Cocciaretto.
I think this is a case of higher level player Davis against the one with the clay court experience. Davis is in slightly better form in the last few weeks including already beating Tomova where she was 1.71 at the start of the match.
- CzechPunter, Robinnho and four-leaf
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3 hours ago, four-leaf said:
That's kind of a bit to early to say you know even though it's Iga who reigns because Iga might be out of FO if she doesn't make it in time with her injury.
If Iga is injured then Parry definitely won't be beating the reigning champ in R1! I would love to see Parry go far, I love a one handed backhand when it's on point.
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7 minutes ago, four-leaf said:
Yes I meant a long time ago by the matches she's played this week before today. To bad you came on to late with Parry, she's had quite good prices on her this week.
Yeah true, but her form has be terrible so didn't want to jump in too early. I often like to find capable underdogs playing an out of form favourite, like Rus beating Anisimova the other week.
Parry has points to defend at the FO though so we'll see what her draw looks like. Can't see her defeating the reigning champ in R1 like last year though lol
French Open 2023
in Tennis Betting Tips & Predictions
Posted
Tomorrow's selections.
Martic to beat Sorribes Tormo - 1.91 with Betfair
Parry to beat Andreeva - 3.35 with Betfair
Pera to beat Vekic - 2.42 with Betfair
Davis to beat Tsurenko - 2.76 with Betfair