Smiles Tennis
-
Posts
803 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
16
Posts posted by Smiles Tennis
-
-
Draxl won last night at 3.84 so that was nice to wake up to. Here are some for today. More later with the afternoon/evening matches I expect. One outstanding still. All odds are Betfair minus 2% commission. 1 point stakes per bet.
Current total now
93 staked
25.55 profit
ROI 27.5%
-
One match starting soon this evening. ATP Palmas del Mar - Draxl to beat Wu 3.84
Fraction of a point profit today with one match held until tomorrow.
Current total is
92 points staked,
22.71 pts profit,
ROI 24.7%
-
-
Tomic won last night.
Here are today's, could be a few more later but grass doesn't have the volume of stats so less picks on that surface.
- CzechPunter and Schokolade
-
2
-
Just over 2pts profit today. Total since start of May posting them on here now 18.52 points with 1 point stakes that gives an ROI of 23.7%.
Sherif left it late, thought she would lose watching the scoreboard of that one towards the end.
Just doing tomorrows matches and have one starting soon this evening.
ATP - Palmas del Mar - Tomic to beat Young 1.38
- Schokolade and amity
-
2
-
And Surbiton - Murray to beat Rodionov - 1.36
-
Most picks going forward won't have write ups as I will now be using mostly a stats based algorithm that I have been researching. I will make opinion picks still but most will be algorithm based. 8/8 all winners. Only 1 underdog, 3.25 Svrcina. Screenshot attached of profit as everyone hates after timers but I didn't have time to post them yesterday. All £10 bets.
Then onto todays picks.
I will keep sharing them if they're of interest to people.
- Swami, Schokolade and amity
-
3
-
Bispal d'emporda, Dolehide to beat Rus 2.04 with Betfair
-
Harry basically said it. I am limited at pretty much every soft bookies after using a betting service during covid lockdowns that sends you picks that sharp bookies have dropped the price but soft bookies haven't updated yet, so value picks. I took them for lots of profit and got limited to about 25p bets at some (Bet365). Betfair Exchange is where I do all my betting now and you will never be limited there as they just take a commission from any profits. They want you to win!
-
ITF Surbiton - Maria to beat Swan - 1.74 with Betfair
Maria is 17-2 as a fave on grass. She's got the slices in her locker that can disrupt Swans game and will be confident after her run to the SF of Wimbledon last year. Will probably go to three sets but Maria should take it.
-
WTA Markarska - Paolini to beat Zavatska - 1.64 with Betfair
Paolini is in good form, losing to the very in form Danilovic at the French Open, winning the title in Florence before that and losing to Rybakina in Rome where she kept it close for the first set to get to a tie break. Zavatska has reached a couple of finals recently but they've been down at the 25K and 60K level. She's 2-14 against the current top #100 in the last 15 months with her wins coming against Brengle and Rogers who can lose to anyone on an average day for them.
-
WTA Markarska - Parry to beat Marcinko - 1.57 with Pinnacle
Parry has been in decent enough form recently, getting a win against Kalinina in Roland Garros before losing to Andreeva. She's played a few doubles matches and been looking quite sharp apparently. Marcinko is a decent youngster but hasn't progressed how she would have liked in the last6/12 months. She's trying to play more aggressively but she's then making errors. She's also having trouble against half decent servers, of which Parry is. Marcinko is low on confidence at the moment and won't want to face Parry first match here when she needs to start getting some ranking points.
- amity and CzechPunter
-
2
-
Haddad Maia to beat Sorribes Tormo - 1.67 with Betfair
Haddad Maia beat the nerves to reach her first fourth round here, with her battle with Alexandrova being a case of who could hold on and not choke it away. SST was surrounded in controversy yesterday after a ball girl was hit and her and Bouzkova pushed for their opponents to be defaulted after a warning was originally given. They were seen laughing and their opponents was disqualified which won't go down well in the locker room.
SST is also in her first fourth round match but I think as Haddad Maia isn't up against a top 15/20 player she will be feeling confident. I also think SST might not be focused what with all the controversy, it might be playing on her mind, wishing she did things differently etc, and this will affect her. Tempted for the 2-0 but just in case Maia tries to choke it away again just the win is the bet today.
- CzechPunter, four-leaf and Robinnho
-
3
-
35 minutes ago, four-leaf said:
This was some really good betting from you @Smiles Tennis just that it seems like you've overestimated Sloane a bit as she really shouldn't be good enough for a set (now Saba serving for 2-0)
I didn't really expect anything else but a 2-0 Sabalenka win but at those odds I had to have a go with all three of their previous matches going 3 sets and this being Sloane's fave tournament. I lost some bets opposing her in the last two weeks, swings and roundabouts. 😁
-
1 hour ago, Robinnho said:
H2H Svitolina 6-0
Yep. Noted that in my picks.
-
17 minutes ago, Robinnho said:
Ya, I think hoping is one thing but betting for a short odds for at most a 60-40 chance is another thing.
For me it is a value to bet on a ML-win for Svitolina. Hope she plays like her countrywoman, Tsurerenko.
Yep. That's why I've backed Svitolina in my picks for today I shared last night. I'm often choosing players I think will lose, but the price is worth a shot.
-
38 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:
I don't really have a bet for today, the men's matches should be quite clear-cut aside from one, and I can't find anything I'd like on the women's side of the draw, either. Hoping for Kasatkina personally, but Svitolina certainly has a good chance.
Yeah I like Kasatkina and hope she goes through.
-
2 hours ago, matrixman said:
Anyone get the feeling that Kasatkina is very motivated to defend those points.Thought it quite weird before the tourney started that with a semi finalist her odds were so high.Think she can make the final.
Sabalenka has seemed to correct that serve but stephens is def no slouch and has just as many majors as her opponent.Sloan is such a weird player.This may be just like the US open where she came out of nowhere to win it.Just seems to lurk around 50 in the rankings then catch fire some tourneys.Like a better version of Cornet.Dont think she will be intimidated at all tomm.
I think because last year Kasatkina only had to beat Rogers and Giorgi in R3 and R4, then Kudermetova who wasn't as good as she is now in the QF. More players at the start of this year were in it that will just dismantle her second serve and she's only reached the QF twice in eight attempts here previously.
-
Pavlyuchenkova to beat Mertens - 1.98 with Betfair
Pav is getting some good minutes under her belt now in her comeback and will be looking to push on here. Mertens is 3-9 in Grand Slam 4th round matches with all her wins coming on HC, her favourite surface. She fully deserved to beat Pegula but Pegula was way off of her usual standard and Mertens hit levels she hadn't hit for a long time. She will need to continue to stay at the high level with her serving and against Pav who is 7-2 in 4th round GS matches and a previous finalist here before her injury, I think it will be too big a task and Pav has an edge here so is a value price.
Muchova to beat Avanesyan 2-0 - 1.75 with Betfair
Avanesyan on a dream run as a lucky loser but Tauson should have beaten her if she didn't make so many errors. Muchova is fit and playing well, is 3-1 in GS 4th Rounds albeit on faster surfaces but she's no stranger to a big match and the nerves will get to Avanesyan meaning an easy 2-0 win for Muchova.
Svitolina to beat Kasatkina - 2.6 with Betfair
Kasatkina has SF points to defend from last year and has played well beating Stearns (not too hard) and a good win against Vondrousova. Svitolina is flying on her comeback with the title in Strasbourg and wins against Trevisan and Blinkova again here. She's on an 8 match win streak and it might catch up with her soon but at 2.6 she has to be worth a shot here. Kasatkina does overperform a little when at these odds, winning 70% instead of the expected 62% but she's lost 3 of her last 6 at these odds and Svitolina leads the head to head 6-0 so that will surely play on her mind if things get tight.
Stephens vs Sabalenka - Number of sets? Three - 3.25 with Betfair
Stephens loves playing here, she's played herself into some decent form in recent weeks and seems motivated in the press conferences. Sabalenka should have this but it is on the slow clay and although she leads Stephens in the head to head 3-0, all three matches have gone to three sets, so 3.25 for a three set result seems value to me.
- CzechPunter, Schokolade and four-leaf
-
2
-
1
-
5 hours ago, neilovan said:
Most of the players hate the drudge of travel, hotels, practice, hotel food, taxi's. It is endless (Jan to late Nov) and brutal. So they like to arrive as late as possible, try and wing it against (hopefully) a weaker opponent, and find their fitness and legs on the match court. So they are vulnerable in the first matches after a long flight. Americans also very vulnerable after travel, especially in Europe, because it feels strange for them.
I think with the shorter odds, you can find players that are exceptional front runners. I don't have access to match scores (showing each game played), only set scores, so I can't evaluate those who go, say 3-1 or 4-1 up. I can only really evaluate front runners by how they do 1st set.
If you want any details for matches for 3-1, 4-1 etc for certain players let me know. I can help you as long as it isn't a list of 100 matches as I'll need to check individually. But if you're after a few bits I'm happy to help.
-
2 hours ago, neilovan said:
The Andreescu v Azarenka was a big match for me, so I was watching closely. Azarenka 6-2, 3-1 40-15 (2 serve break points for a double break) ... game over! At that point Andreescu just relaxed, had nothing to lose. She played really well and showed her true ability. Her confidence went up and she was in control. Azarenka did not play badly, she was just outplayed, and lost a few big points.
For me Tsurenko also caught those opponents at the right time. All three undercooked and not ready for the clay season. Essentially arriving late (not so much Svitolina), and hoping to get through the 1st round and gain game time. If Andreescu plays similar to set 2 and 3 against Azarenka, this only has one outcome.
I think her starting odds of 1.72 means that you have some scope to take this bet in play. If she starts well with an early break, you will probably get her at 1.45 or around 1.4 which is fine. That is my strategy here for a big bet. Just want to see the early momentum.
I have only recently started watching tennis again so wasn't sure of the circumstances around Tsurenko's other wins so thanks for the info. I don't usually like backing shorter odds and have been burned many times in the past backing shorter odds after an early break so tend to avoid that now.
Andreescu is 3-4 on clay when favourite and losing the first set so could be an opportunity as well if she loses the first set.
-
French Open - Tsurenko to beat Andreescu - 2.26 with Betfair
Andreescu is in the third round at Roland Garros for the first time. She's only 12-9 on clay in WTA matches and lost to Xiyu Wang a few weeks ago. She did battle well against Azarenka but Azarenka hasn't been fit and can always throw a random crap performance in.
Tsurenko is 32-43 on clay at WTA level but is 7-3 this year and her defeats came against Swiatek, Kasatkina and Ons who are all excellent clay courters. I'm not sure if Andreescu will reach the level needed to win unless Tsurenko has an off day but she's already beaten Krejcikova, Pera and Svitolina recently who are all decent on the dirt.
- four-leaf, Robinnho and CzechPunter
-
3
-
Putintseva to beat Stephens 2.74 with Betfair
-
Friday's picks, I'll be home from holiday tomorrow afternoon so will have more time.
Andreeva to beat Gauff 2.24
Potapova to beat Pavlyuchenkova 1.67
Svitolina to beat Blinkova 1.51
Tennis Tips - June 5 - June 18
in Tennis Betting
Posted
Some more picks. Good morning so far, couple of losses but Bjorkland 2.19, Caruso 2.59, Geerts 3.11 all winning at odds against that can cover some losing ones today.