yossa6133

Oh wow, my neighbours heard about that Woking winner 

Manchester City vs Schalke
The second leg of the last 16 tie between Premier League club Manchester City and Bundesliga side Schalke is taking place tonight in an 8pm kick-off at the Etihad Stadium. Apologies for a late preview post. Storm Gareth has been a right little terror in South Wales and caused issues with my internet. Hopefully all fixed now so let's crack on!
Manchester City won the first leg 3-2 in what can only be described as one of the knockout stage's most riveting ties in recent memory. Pep Guardiola's team came from behind to take the win with the in-form Raheem Sterling scoring a last minute winner. The Citizens will be without Fernandinho and Nicolas Otamendi. They are hoping Aymeric Laporte will return to the first team but John Stones is likely to miss out.
Schalke will be desperately disappointed to come into this second leg at a disadvantage. Domenico Tedesco's men were 2-1 up going into the last 5 minutes of the game. To put it simply, they snatched defeat from the jaws of victory! Three defeats in the league conceding 11 goals in the process have followed. How badly has that first leg capitulation affected the team? Badly, it would seem. The club has the triple blow of playmaker Daniel Caligiuri missing out injured with ill-disciplined duo Mark Uth and Amine Harit also being left out for their behaviour.
On each of the previous 27 times when a team has won the away leg scoring 3 or more goals in the Champions League knock-out stages, that team has gone on to progress to the next stage of the competition. That's what we were saying for PSG last week but this feels a bit different with Schalke not quite on a resurgent level of Manchester United. City also not quite the bottle jobs of PSG either.
Further evidence backs the Schalke win with City having won all three previous meetings with Schalke. The English side have also only lost 1 of their last 10 home matches with German teams in European competition. That lone defeat came against Bayern Munich in the 2013/14 season.
I have to back a solid City win here. I think that late collapse by Schalke has knocked the wind out of their sails. This City team is pretty special and they've drawn comparisons to Pep's Barcelona team. I can see them making light work of this. The weakened defence means they'll have to attack and that won't be pleasant for the German side.
Manchester City HT/FT @ 1.55 with Boylesports
Manchester City -2 @ 2.05 with Coral
@vasilli07, @Xcout, @Icongene, @KikoCy, @DrBetter, @Duuc, @DrO, @immortal--, @Notorious, @betcatalog, @KingSoccertips, @discipline, @Pep004, @HastGill1, @ElPrincipito007, @salmonman, @DW_United, @allthethings, @MightyWell, @liamcorrigan86, @mijOsim, @dorleywilliams, @soccerprediction123, @TOTTI3, @LePapo, @seifer365, @MPLouis, @Jack A, @JJG, @Pipoca, @neilovan, @wcz, @newjack, @matt-e-matticle, @EBTA, @cluelessG, @mtom, @Marek76, @allyhibs, @alani42, @jazzman02, @hristofor, @fhuefdsa @Gedkip, @Carovie, @money44, @Donvitz, @swasya, @vicsuna, @Neubs, @i1_principe, @the bastardian, and @WinningAdvice, will you guys be betting on these matches?

Might risk a very small bet on Man U to qualify at 18/1, an on fire Lukaku could be tough to handle for PSG.

Angels Breath @ 7.00
Hardline @ 6.00
Buveur D'Air @ 3.75
Ballyward @ 3.75
Lucky 15, 15 bets * £1.00
 

Try this  double  7/1   SKYBET
 BUVDEUR  DAIR  champion hurdle
BENIE DES DIEUX   Mares hurdle  NAP
 

Just failed to make a profit on Saturday but hopefully that can change on Tuesday night where I have 6 bets. This will be fairly brief as rather busy this week.
Aldershot v Leyton Orient and Eastleigh v Maidstone
I know Orient were held to a draw against Aldershot in the reverse fixture and they put in a good performance at Barrow on Saturday when being unfortunate to lose, but Orient really need to pick up 3 points in games like this if they are going to win the league and they should be too good for them. Eastleigh bounced straight back from losing to Halifax by beating Chesterfield 3-2 in an exciting game. Maidstone finally won another game of football by beating Havant, but this is a much tougher test and I can't see them getting anything. The double pays 2.19/1 with Marathon.
Barnet v Halifax
Barnet might have got something at Gateshead on Saturday had they not gone down to 10 men as they were a goal up at the time and ended up losing 2-1. Fact is it is 1 win in 9 now and they really need to be careful. I put up Halifax on Saturday and the game was called off so I won't repeat their stats, but given they beat Barnet 3-0 last week it is hard to understand why they are 14/5 (BetVictor) to beat them again here especially given they didn't play on Saturday.
Bromley v Chesterfield
Bromley have lost their last 3 although they only lost to a late penalty at Harrogate last week. They were poor on Saturday though as they lost 3-0 to Dagenham who had hardly been in great form of late. As mentioned above Chesterfield more than played their part in the 3-2 defeat to Eastleigh and that was only their 3rd defeat in their last 10 games with the other two coming against Harrogate and Wrexham. They are better than their current league position suggests and they certainly shouldn't be as big for this as they are (13/5 with Marathon)
Ebbsfleet v Maidenhead
Ebbsfleet were Halifax's opponents on Saturday so they haven't played either, but I still think Maidenhead offer value here at 19/5 with Marathon. They deserved their win over Sutton on Saturday especially as they only had 10 men for part of the game (Sutton also had a man sent off towards the end) and they are playing really solid as a squad as at the moment. 
Oxford City v Woking
God knows how Oxford conceded 5 goals to Hampton on Saturday given Hampton had only scored 4 goals in their previous 9 games. That makes it just 1 win and 1 draw in their last 10 games and they now face title chasing Woking. It is hard to understand why Woking are odds against (11/10 with Marathon) to win this as they should be odds on.
St Albans v Weston-Super-Mare
Weston produced a hell of a performance to beat Torquay a couple of weeks ago, but they then lost 5-0 to Wealdstone and could only play out a drab 0-0 draw with fellow bottom 3 side Hungerford. St Albans' home form is superb as they have only lost 1 of their last 10 home games and that was 7 games ago. They beat Dulwich on Saturday in a tough game and I think they will be too strong for the bottom side here. 143/100 with Marathon looks a big price.
Leyton Orient/Eastleigh 1pt double @ 2.19/1 with Marathon
Halifax 1pt @ 14/5 with BetVictor
Chesterfield 1pt @ 13/5 with Marathon
Maidenhead 1pt @ 19/5 with Marathon
Woking 2.5pts @ 11/10 with Marathon
St Albans 2pts @ 143/100 with Marathon

The biggest Hunter Chase of the season is the Cheltenham Foxhunter and 26 horses remain in the race ahead of the final decs on Wednesday. I don't think it is an overly strong renewal and not that many have a serious chance. I have already put up Caid Du Berlais and although there are no other bets at this stage I will more than likely add at least one more bet on Thursday night once the offers are known.   Ardkilly Witness - Could be 1000/1 and I still wouldn't want to back him.   Asockastar - Took his form to a new level at the back end of last season when finishing a great 2nd to Barel Of Laughs in the big race on Hunter Chase night here in May and then finished in the same position in the Stratford Foxhunters behind Chosen Dream. I do think that Stratford race is suspect form wise because so few horses on the night handled the over watered ground, but he deserved the win at Leicester on his seasonal return when comfortbaly seeing off Just Cause. Can see him finishing top 10, but he shouldn't be good enough to hit the frame.   Balnaslow - I'm guessing he wont have Derek this year and that will be a big miss because he has given him two superb rides in the last two renewals finishing 5th in 2017 and 7th last year when he wasn't fully fit. He went on to win the Aintree Foxhunters although it has been rumoured that he will lose that race after failing a drugs test. He then pulled up at Punchestown, the race he won in 2017, and he was a well beaten 4th at Stratford. He has run just once this term and finished last of 7 in a point although he pulled up in his only start before this race last season. Even so it is hard to see him improving on either of his two previous runs especially without Derek on top.   Caid Du Berlais - I thought he ran a massive race in the last year to finish 5th less than 4L behind Pacha Du Polder. Going into the race I wondered if he stay, but I thought he saw it out well enough especially when you consider how soft the ground was. He then went to Punchestown and bolted up in impressive style. You can pick holes in that form, but if we use Sizing Coal is a yardstick then Stand Up And Fight has 40L to make up on Caid Du Berlais. Now racing is never as simple as that, but it does back up my thinking that the Irish aren't that strong in this division at the moment. This year he didn't get the opportunity to run until a couple of weeks ago because of the weather, the flu and then he picked up a foot infection. Before backing him I did want to see him run as I think it is very tough to win this race first time out, so it was pleasing that he was unchallenged to win a Mixed Open at Biships Court. It wasn't the strongest race in the world, but he couldn't have done it any easier and it was the perfect prep for this. After Tuesday there appears to be no or little rain in the forecast so it shouldn't be as testing as last year which should help him. There is also a lot of pace in the race and that should play into his hands. He should be pushing for favouritism in my view and a double figure price is still too big about him.   Chosen Dream - Same connections as Balnaslow and he caused a massive shock when winning the Stratford Foxhunters. That is a massive shock for all bar his trainer who apparently fancied him for the race. He finished 2nd to Coastal Tiep in a point in November and then was 4th behind Ucello Conti at Thurles in January. As mentioned above I think the form of that Stratford race is highly suspect and for me he has a fair bit to find.   Coastal Tiep - Ex Paul Nicholls who current connections picked up for £18k last year. He won hist first two points to get his qualification in for this early, which as mentioned above included him beating Chosen Dream by 4L. Was a well beaten 5th behind Stand Up And Fight at Down Royal before finishing 2nd to Ucello Conti at Navan last month. He is only 7 so might have more to come in future year, but the 2 Hunter Chase runs suggest he will be lacking here and he looks under priced at the moment.   Cousin Pete - Looked like he would be a potential Foxhunter contender when wining on Hunter Chase night here in 2016 and after not being right in 2017 he did go on to prove that to be correct last year when he ran a stormer to finish 3rd. He has had 3 runs this season including finishing a well beaten 7th to Hazel Hill at Warwick. That day though he clearly wasn't at his best as he didn't jump well and didn't travel all that great either. He stayed on a bit at the end and I think he just found everything happening too quickly for him. He has bounced back to win at Garthorpe last month. He ran so well last year that you have to respect his chances although at the same time it is hard to see him going two places better. I would have him shorter in the betting though as he has better chances than some in this. As an aside I think the 4m race here on Hunter Chase night will be right up his street.   Dont Do Mondays - Hugely flattered to finish so close to Monsieur Gibraltar at Fontwell in May and he pulled up at Godstone earlier in the month on his seasonal retyrn. Going to finish nearer last than first.   Double Whammy - Ran two good races in Hunter Chases at Perth and Kelso last May behind Creevytennant and Kilbree Kid and could well find a Hunter Chase to win if still in that form at 13, but it certainly wont be this one.   Haymount - Was a good horse for Willie Mullins and the highlight was a 3rd in the National Hunt Chase at the 2017 Festival just behind Tiger Roll. After disappointing in the Kerry National last year he moved to Tom Ellis' yard and the target has always been this race. He ended up having to qualify on the last weekend he could because after winning at Sherriff Hutton he then missed races thanks to the weather and the flu. He won a Ladies Open at Chaddesley Corbett, but the problem for me is the form. William Money was only a neck away in 2nd with Patricktom Boru close behind in 3rd. William Money ran the Saturday after and he was a fairly well beaten 2nd in a Novice Riders race. He holds the form back for me because Haymount really ought to have beaten the field easier than that. What he does have on his side though as a yard having a good season, he has one of the best jockey's in the race and obviously his back form is pretty strong in the context of this. I'm wary of him, but I would have like to have seen a bit more last time really.   Hazel Hill - A horse who has obviously had his issues over the years as he has only seen a racecourse 19 times despite being 11 now. 12 of those runs have come in British points and he has won 11 of them only losing in a 3 runner race to Garde Ville at Sandon on his final start last season. He has won 3 Hunter Chases 2 very easily last season at odds of 2/11 and then at Warwick back in January. Before that Warwick run I saw him run at Chaddesley Corbett and although he won by 12L I wasn't overly impressed. I thought his jumping left a bit to be desired and he was workmanlike. At Warwick though he was very impressive beating on paper what was a strong field with ease and he earned a RPR of 151 for that win. He did jump much better that day to be fair to him, but you can pick all sorts of holes in the form. Mr Mix was 2nd and had already been beaten in a couple of points before making hard work of beating a poor field at Godstone. Brandon Hill was 3rd and he had led and tried to go with the winner turning for home, but he didn't stay. Upswing in 4th has run terribly since. Shantou Flyer was 5th and was clearly nowhere near his best. There was a 100/1 shot in 6th and Cousin Pete was 7th and he barely went a yard. He is clearly a good horse, but on reflection that win wasn't quite as strong as it looked at first. I'm still a little worried about his jumping as he wasn't great at Towcester a year ago. I certainly respect his chances, and if he did win I wouldn't be surprised, but for me his price his tight enough and I am happy to pass him over.   Just Cause - Shown useful enough form in the last couple of seasons pointing and beat Mr Mix at Cottenham back in December. That isn't good enough to finish anywhere near the front in this though and his Hunter Chase form certainly isn't. He finished 2nd to Asockastar at Leicester last time and he was clear 2nd best that day.   One Conemara - Surprised to see him entered given connections have said he doesn't handle Cheltenham as proven by his runs in the 4m race here on Hunter Chase night. That race should have been perfect for him and he has no chance in this.   Pacha Du Polder - Bidding to win the race for the 3rd time and the horse that only non Hunter Chase experts could possibly have backed/tipped up in the last couple of years. Most people didn't think he would stay and he proved that wrong 2 years ago and then last year it was the jockey who wasn't going to be good enough, but he was able to carry Harriett to success. This is set to be his last race and surely he can't win it again. His prep run last year at Doncaster wasn't great, but did at least have a bit of promise in it. Nicholls said last year that he had been held up and it was a rush to get him ready for Doncaster and Cheltenham, but this year he said he had no setbacks and so his poor run at Haydock is hard to explain. He has 55L to make up with Road To Rome and that is a huge amount. I would be silly to say he can't win because as we know horses who run well at the Festival can do so on repeat visits, but I just can't see how he can do it on the back of that woeful Haydock run.   Road To Rome - Whatever he does here this horse has to be the be the training performance of the season. His last run for Oliver Sherwood was in May last year and he was 2nd at Bangor over 2m4f off a mark of 109. God knows what Oliver was doing with him because Joe O'Shea has turned him into a completely different horse. He was still a maiden so he started off on the opening day of the pointing season in a maiden at Buckfastleigh where he was the biggest certainty going in hindsight. He then won his Restricted and Intermediate before Christmas. Next up it was the opening Hunter Chase of the season at Taunton and he bolted up by 25L. He then went and won the next Hunter Chase of the season beating Beeves by 5L. Beeves was hard work that day, but I thought he ran his race because he did keep finding for pressure and the rest were miles away. He had a little break but then went back to Ludlow where he beat a couple of decent horses and he was giving 16lbs to the 2nd. 10 days later it was the Walrus at Haydock and he put in his most devastating performance yet. The only horse that could live withim was Ballotin and he could only finish 4th in the end after he tired having tried to keep up. Pacha Du Polder was 54L behind him in 5th. Sam Waley-Cohen keeps the ride despite the fact his Dad co-owns Wonderful Charm which suggests he was very impressed. There are some minor concerns. First of all his jumping hasn't always been foot perfect, but it does seem to have got better as the season has gone on. There are other front runners in this field so I am not sure he will be able to get an easy lead, but interestingly connections were shrewd enough to allow Beeves to make the running at Ludlow and he only took it up so early as his superior jumping took him there. Therefore I think he is flexible when it comes to having to make the running. The main concern I do have though is the trip especially if the ground is on the soft side. Having said that he hasn't stopped galloping so far at the end of 3m and given the season he and the trainer have had there is every chance he could go very close.   Samanntom - Was 2nd to Ucello Conti at Thurles, but has been beaten in both point starts since and was beaten in two prior to that run as well, after winning on his seasonal return. Hard to see how he can reverse form with Ucello Conti let alone some of the others here.   Shantou Flyer - I'm sure Maxwell paid a few quid for him in the view of winning this race given his strong Cheltenham record which includes being beaten a neck by Coo Star Sivola in the Ultima at last year's Festival. As mentioned above he was well beaten by Hazel Hill on his seasonal debut. He then won at Kelso after looking beat at one stage although his cause was certainly helped by the fact Mr Mercurial dogged it after being in front for too long. He then had an easy task at Fontwell as his main rival Southfield Vic ran a long way below his best. I respect his Cheltenham form, but he is under priced on what he has done this year. Also there is a rumour that Maxwell tried to buy Road To Rome so that hints at the fact he doesn't think Shantou Flyer is the horse to give him his first Foxhunter win.   Some Are Lucky - Was a useful horse for Tom George although his only chase win was in a 3 runner race at Leicester last January. Sold for £18k in the summer and has thrived in points over in Ireland winning 4 of his 5 starts including beating Samanntom last time out. Might well have improved but will have to have improved a fair bit on his former rules form to go close in this.   Southfield Theatre - Has won a couple of points at Larkhill and Cocklebarrow this season, but the same horse has finished 2nd both times and they weren't strong heats. He was put in his place by Monsieur Gibraltar in between those two wins and as much as he will give his young jockey some fun out in front for a while he shouldn't be good enough.   Stand Up And Fight - Has been favourite for this race since he won at Down Royal on Boxing Day. He had been a pretty good novice hurdler which included a 2nd in a Grade 2 at Fairyhouse a couple of years ago. They then sent him chasing last season and that didn't go to plan. This season they have decided to turn him into a Hunter Chaser and he made a winning start in a point in November. He won the Down Royal race by a comfortable 5L beating Sizing Coal, but that one had been 45L behind Caid Du Berlais at Punchestown and was pulled up at Gowran Park over the weekend. Kruzhlinin was 3rd and he has been winning plenty of points this season and they were miles clear of the rest including Coastal Tiep. The problem is he was beaten last time out at Kilfeacle when going down 4L to Fenno's Storm. That one lost the next time, but did win that Gowran Park race. I have seen it suggested that he wasn't well after that although I have seen nothing official on that front. Even if he was his form isn't overly strong for me and there has to be a stamina concern as well. The furthest he has gone under rules so far is 2m6f and he has another half a mile to go here at a testing track on likely soft ground. He might well prove to be the new On The Fringe, but for me on what he has done so far he doesn't deserve to be favourite and I am happy to take on.   Sybarite - Connections had said he was retired after he was last of 4 behind Hazel Hill last year, but clearly something most have made them change their minds as he turned up in the Walrus and finished 2nd to Road To Rome at Haydock. Granted he was 34L behind and he did what he always does in that he was last for most of the way and then stayed on for 2nd. He nearly won the 4m race on Hunter Chase night in 2017 and I guess if the fire still burns that would be the obvious target again, but he will be massively outclassed here.   Timewaitsfornoone - Won a maiden Hunter Chase a year ago at Downpatrick and then on his next start to he finished 2nd at Punchestown behind Caid Du Berlais. A fine effort but he was 25L behind him and he hasn't run since. Only 7 so sure to be improvement to come, but it is hard to see him winning this on his first start in nearly a year with plenty of ground to make up on Caid Du Berlais.   Top Wood - Ran a hell of a race to finish a close 2nd to Pacha Du Polder last year especially given he had made most of the running in the testing ground. He then ran way below that when pulling up at Punchestown and he hasn't been seen since. Would be some training feat to get him fit enough to make all the running again especially given some potential other front runners and at 12 I struggle to see him repeating last year's efforts let alone go one better.    Ucello Conti - His seasons always used to based around the Grand National and he has run in that the last 3 seasons, but he only competed once when 6th in 2016. He's never been to Cheltenham before, but comes here on the back of 3 wins which includes Hunter Chase wins at Thurles and Navan. He probably would have won at Thurles, but Gwencily Berbas was still in front when when unseating at the last. At Navan he won a bit easier, but I think you can pick holes in the form. Sydney Paget clearly didn't run his race and Salsify was 11L back in 3rd. It feels like a long time since Salsify was at his peak and he duly pulled up over the weekend. I respect his chances, but I just think the Irish don't have a strong hand this year and I think others come here in better form   Summary - Having already put up Caid Du Berlais up I am happy to have him as the main bet in the race and I still think the price is value if you haven't already backed him. It was a cracking run in the race last year when not everything went his way and the Punchestown win was superb. The Irish challenge is headed by Stand Up And Fight and Ucello Conti, but for me they head a pretty weak bunch. I'm not sure Stand Up And Fight will stay and Ucello Conti hasn't really impressed me in his two Hunter Chase wins so far. You can pick holes in Hazel Hill's Warwick win, but he is clearly a good horse and if his jumping stands up to this test then he can go well. Shantou Flyer looks under-priced to me and you are hoping that Cheltenham brings him back to form if you back him. No doubt Pacha Du Polder will have his backers, but I would be amazed if he landed the hat-trick. Haymount has the back class, but needs to step up on what he has done this season. Last year's 2nd Top Wood will do very well to repeat that effort first time out and the 3rd Cousin Pete makes more appeal at a big price as Cheltenham clearly brings out the best in him. The only other one worth mentioning is Road To Rome and given what he has done so far this season you certainly can't rule him out from running a big race in this.   Final Thoughts - Caid Du Berlais is not surprisingly very strong in the market on Thursday night and I actually wouldn't be surprised if he doesn't get close to being favourite although that will depend on if the Irish want to get stuck into their two at the head of the market. I'm happy to still be against Ucello Conti and Stand Up And Flight. Looking at the final field there is a hell of a lot of dead wood in it that has no obvious chance and because of that I am going to add two horses to the bets near the head of the market. Road To Rome is drifting at the moment and I think at 8/1 he is worth a play. He doesn't have to lead if others want to go too quick and if he stays then he will surely be involved in the finish. The other one I am going to back is Hazel Hill. I must admit if you read my initial preview that probably surprises a little, but I have given it some thought and as much as you can pick holes in the form it is the time that catches the eye. He recorded a high topspeed rating and despite being 11 he is still unexposed. He might just be able to land this and at 6/1 I am happy to have him covered. I have looked through the big prices and nothing really stands out although I am going to have a small play on Cousin Pete. He was a really good 3rd in this last year and I can see him finishing pass beaten horses off the likely fast pace. He has it in him to hit the frame again.   Hazel Hill 1pt @ 6/1 with Bet365 and most others Road To Rome 1pt @ 8/1 with Betfair, Paddy Power and BetVictor Cousin Pete 0.25pts e/w @ 50/1 with William Hill 1st 3 only or 40/1 with Betfair and Paddy Power 1st 4   Already advised - Caid Du Berlais 1pt e/w @ 20/1     

Finally got ultima weights ...rated race and very interesting 
Flying angel    310  33/1 
Willie boy    309  33/1 
Give me a copper 304  11/2 
 These 3 ahead of rest and I dont like Nicholls give me copper as I think hes ridiculous price and Nicholls record in race is diabolical so top two ew are no brainers for me both with 365 nrnb 10pts ew ...if one of those wins it's all over boooooom 
 

Sheffield United vs Rotherham
There are a few close calls in the Championship. It took me a while to decide which game to pick as my second preview in this thread but I've eventually settled on Sheffield United's home match with Rotherham at Bramall Lane that's due to kick-off at 3pm this Saturday afternoon.
Only a 20 minute drive separates the home grounds of these two teams. United are sitting proudly in 3rd place in the league with their eyes firmly on automatic promotion. Chris Wilder has worked miracles at the club over the past couple of seasons to get them into this position. A win could potentially send them into the top two. It's now 7 league games undefeated for the Blades and that includes having kept a clean sheet in their last 4 league matches.
Rotherham are still occupying the last relegation spot despite constantly delivering performances that don't always get the rewards they are due. Paul Warne's team are only inside the relegation on goal difference. They remain just one win away from potentially leap frogging Reading, Millwall, and Wigan so they're still in the thick of it. It's 6 league games undefeated for the Millers but it's also just one win in their last 9 league matches.
The obvious point to make here is the home and away form of these two sides. United have the 3rd best home record in the division behind only Leeds and Brentford. On the flip side, Rotherham haven't won a single game on the road in the league this season and only Wigan and Ipswich have earned less points on their travels... and even that is 1 point less than Rotherham.
I know this is technically a derby match but I'm struggling to see how Rotherham can take something from this game. United are rampant right now and so well organised at the back. It might not be a walk in the park for the home side but I can see another clean sheet win here for United.
Sheffield United to Win to Nil @ 2.25 with BetVictor
Total Goals Scored Under 2.5 @ 2.06 with 888Sport

That Leamington goal with 10 men hurts 

Nice

Good luck today
Two at Wolverhampton
1.30-Drakefell @ 11-4  William Hill
2.05-Breden @ 16-1 [Each Way 4 Places] Bet Victor

I was always going to get one badly wrong at some point and fair to say Pass The Hat made me look foolish for a 2nd time! To be fair he jumped superbly today and ran out a good winner to give Sarah Rippon her first winner under rules. I wouldn't want to go mad on the form though. Road To Riches may have needed it, but he thought about not jumping the last so he has to have a question mark over him the next time we see him. The fact Nautical Twilight was 3rd does hold the form back for me. Barrakilla was beaten a long way from home and as much as you could argue he might have needed it, it was a shocking run and a mile away from his Bangor win or Aintree 4th. Little Jon was well backed late on track, but this was much worse than his Ludlow effort. Rouge Et Blanc bled and surely it is the last time we see him on a racecourse.
Hopefully we can have better luck on Friday at Leicester. Some of the interest has been taking out of the race as Full Trottle is now a non-runner, but it is still an intriguing race. 
To a certain extent it revolves around Eastlake who I suspect is being aimed at the Aintree Foxhunter given he won the Topham in 2016 as well as finishing 3rd in 2014. He has also run in the race 3 other times although he pulled up twice and finished 13th last year. He is clearly on the downgrade as a mark of 128 tells you and I think he is going to have to be capable of running up to around that mark to win this. He has had wind surgery since his last run at Stratford in November, but he had it back in October 2017 as well and it didn't do him much good then. He must be showing something at home though and obviously Derek O'Connor is over for the ride which catches the eye, but on balance he has to be taken on. Having said that the betting will tell you all you need to know and if he gets heavily backed then it might well be worth following the money.   I can't have Double Ross especially over a trip this short. Argot won the race last year, but it wasn't anywhere near this strong despite the bigger field and apart from a pointing win he showed little else last season. He also has 46L to make up on Full Trottle based on their running at Ludlow in April. Numbercruncher pulled up in this last year when he ran like he needed the race and I fully expect the same here although he is a fair old horse over this trip so if he was fitter this time around I wouldn't be surprised if he ran well.   I thought Ballotin ran a hell of a race at Haydock as he was the only one who tried to keep with Road To Rome which he managed for a fair way, but a lack of a recent run plus his stamina gave weigh and he only finished 4th in the end after a couple of outsiders ran past him. He was clear 2nd best in the race though and it was a cracking run. The ground won't be a concern as he won on good at Wetherby in October and he handles a bit of cut should it get softer. This trip might not be his ideal one, but he won over it in France and I think there is every chance he will have too much class for these.   So it is Ballotin and David Maxwell for me although do be wary of a market plunge on Eastlake.   Ballotin 2.5pts @ evs with Bet365 and most others

Norwich vs Swansea
The Championship action begins on a Friday night once again as league leaders Norwich take on an inconsistent mid-table Swansea side in a 7:45pm kick-off at Carrow Road. Both teams will be looking to build on wins in their last game but it seems obvious where the betting should go.
Norwich continue to cling onto the top spot. Daniel Farke's side have won three league games in a row now to move ahead of Leeds and consolidate their place at the summit of the Championship. 6 wins in their last 8 league games and an unbeaten home record in the league gives the Canaries every right to be confident coming into this game.
Swansea have had times this season when they've looked like they might make a push for the play-offs but losing 3 of their 4 league matches in February has seemed to really dent their hopes of promotion. Graham Potter's men are in 14th place now. Relegation isn't a concern but the Swans are now 7 points off the play-offs and struggling to put a run of results together with a threadbare squad. Another season in the Championship looks likely.
The head-to-head record between these two is fairly evenly balanced over recent times. It's three wins a piece and two draws that have occurred in their past 8 meetings in all competitions. The home side will undoubtedly come into this game more confident of a win though. Norwich might not have the best home record in the division but they're still a very tough side to beat on their own patch. On the flip side, Swansea have only won 5 of their 17 away league games. You've got to back the home side to win here.
Norwich to Win @ 1.73 with BetVictor
BTTS @ 1.70 with SportingBet
@waynecoyne, @sajtion, @arvee, @canaries91, @Mindfulness, @betcatalog, @Magic0024, @malabgd, @CloughandTaylor, @Tiffy, @Gidds, @chris50, @PokerWolf1, @teddybear3011, @skyblues88, @allyhibs, @Icongene, @KikoCy, @willie82, @Neubs, @Papa Lazarou, @kulikTS, @Valkovets, @Pipoca, @padman, @Marek76, @silver fox, @neilovan, @HastGill1, @jazzman02, @andypaps28, @Kenton Schweppes, @rangers234, @newjack, @Kane91, @yossa6133, @The Sexless Innkeeper, @Xcout, @branskie, @Wanderer89, @four-leaf, @trevor8, @OppoArchitizerLady, and @the bastardian, what bets are you guys planning for this weekend's Championship action?

Might risk a very small bet on Man U to qualify at 18/1, an on fire Lukaku could be tough to handle for PSG.

An exciting finish to the Catterick race on Wednesday and a Hunter Chase which has really improved on quality in recent seasons. Diplomate Sivola and David Maxwell will have been glad there was an extra 30 yards to the race because the only time they were in front was on the line. It didn't look like he had won and he traded at odds against on Betfair in the photo, but won he had by the smallest of margins. I think it was a very good performance and he should be up to winning more of these. The Racing Post analysis and Racing TV on Twitter both mentioned he is in the Kim Muir, but he can't run it now he has run a Hunter Chase so it was pointless them mentioning it.
Path To Freedom ran a hell of a race to finish 2nd and was slightly unfortunate not to have won really. This was a big improvement on his Hexham run last year and he is clearly a progressive horse. He is entered in the Foxhunter, but surely the obvious target should be to win a Hunter Chase instead of over facing him at Cheltenham. They were miles clear of the rest who were headed by Wither Or Not. I think he hasn't stayed in the ground and he could be worth another chance. Dance Of Time was just behind him, but as I said in the preview he could be a pointer rather than a rules horse. As for the selection it was a shame he came down when he did, because I was perfectly happy with how he was travelling and he jumped well until that point. Dave Orton who wrote the RP analysis said he was off the bridle when coming down, but god knows what he was watching because he certainly wasn't. It was too soon to know how he would have got on, but every chance given the distance between the front two and the 3rd that he could have finished 3rd. It is a concern now though that he has fallen in 2 out of his 3 Hunter Chases.
Onto Carlisle's race on Thursday and we have another Maxwell runner in Road To Riches. He won the Lexus in 2014 and was 3rd in that seasons Cheltenham Gold Cup. He was also 3rd in the Ryanair a year later. Clearly he was the best horse in this race, but the evidence suggests he is nowhere near that level now. He was 6th in the Grand National which to be fair was a top effort, but it only gave him an RPR of 107 and he actually recorded a higher figure of 128 when 6th at Galway in August. He than ran over hurdles and was a well beaten 7th at Down Royal. Who knows how much ability he has still, but the evidence would suggest he is probably a 120 horse at best and this will be some test first time out as well so the percentage call is to oppose him for me.
Barrakilla won first time up last season on his first start for over 2 years at Bangor. I thought it was a really good performance that day to beat Wells De Lune as that when set a really strong pace and it was a good test. He was then disappointing at Warwick, but bounced back to finish 4th in the Aintree Foxhunters. You would imagine that is the target again and Fergal O'Brien really does well with his Hunter Chasers. He has proven he can get one fit as well and given what he did on his return last year I think he is the one to beat.
I thought Little Jon ran with some promise at Ludlow behind Road To Rome in January. He may have finished a 55L 5th, but he had no chance of staying the trip and he showed up well for a long way. Given it was his seasonal debut as well there is every chance he will come on for the run. The ground shouldn't be an issue and if the two at the head of the market disappoint I think he is the most likely to take advantage.
I didn't fancy Pass The Hat at all when he won at Southwell last season as his two runs in points were not good, but crucially the tongue-tie which was missing in those runs was back on and he managed to win beating Galway Jack. He didn't jump well that day though and neither did he when a long way behind Arthur's Secret last month. Maybe he will make me look foolish again, but I can't have him.
Rouge Et Blanc won a Hunter Chase at Lingfield over this sort of trip on this ground last season and then followed that up with a 2nd in the race that is at Leicester on Friday where the 2m trip was too sharp for him. His 1st Hunter Chase run last term was a good one though as it came in the Hereford Hunter Chase which was really strong form. His seasonal debut came in a point where he pulled up and at 14 you have to think he will come on for this, but a bold showing wouldn't come as a big surprise.
I have to side with Barrakilla here as form wise we know where we stand with him. Granted we can't be certain of fitness, but that Bangor performance was superb on his return last season so we know he can win after a break. We are guessing a bit when it comes to Road To Riches, but I think there is a fair chance the pick is the better horse at the moment. Little Jon could be the one to pick up the pieces should they both disappoint as I think he ran better than his finishing position at Ludlow suggests.
Barrkilla 1pt @ 13/8 with William Hill
 

Might risk a very small bet on Man U to qualify at 18/1, an on fire Lukaku could be tough to handle for PSG.

Another Hunter Chase and another David Maxwell odds on favourite. This time it is Diplomate Sivola who ran in a couple of Hunter Chases last year, but has since been handicapping. I thought the Ludlow 4th to Full Trottle was a decent effort on his UK debut, but the 3rd in a weak race at Sedgefield wasn't as good. That was over just under 2m4f on quickish ground and given what he has done since I think he found things happening all too quick for him even in a poor race like that. His handicap form is pretty good especially in the context of this race. In three defeats he has been beaten 1/2L twice and a short head. One of those defeats was behind Glen Rocco who has obviously done well since. He won his other handicap start off 117 at Lingfield in November stepped up to 3m and he bolted up by 12L. He then had a break until a month ago when he was a short head 2nd to Touch Kick at Taunton running off a 13lbs higher mark. I really can't imagine any of this lot being capable of doing that despite the fact he has to give weight away. The step up again in trip shouldn't be an issue and the rain that is set to fall should bring the ground into his favour as well. I don't really want to back him at the current price, but I find it hard to see him getting beat.
Wither Or Not's price has collapsed since he opened up at 12/1 and I can see why people wanted to get on at the lumpy odds although you can pick holes in his form. He missed 2018, but won 6 on the bounce in the 2017 season. He beat one of today's rivals Dance Of Time when winning his Restricted, but then beat a 2m horse in the Intermediate so that told us little. He won a couple of races in the very weak South East area as well and didn't really clock a fast time until the last of those at Parham. He returned after his year break to finish 2nd to One Conemara at Sheriff Hutton in January. On the face of it that was a good return, but the winner has been beaten since. Also the winning time was 8 seconds slower than Path To Freedom's winning time on the same card and he was carrying 2lbs more. Dale Peters doesn't over face his horses so he clearly thinks he is up to a Hunter Chase and clearly he will come on for that run last time, but I would have a concern if the ground turned soft and there are others I prefer at the current prices.
I really fancied Dance Of Time to win on his Hunter Chase debut at Kelso last season, but he was a big disappointment. He didn't jump well and didn't find a great deal when asked for an effort having been pretty keen. He won on his seasonal return at Thorpe Lodge in what wasn't the strongest of heats, but he did it well enough. I think he has the ability to be competitive, but the concern is the Kelso run and he might just be one of those horses who is good in points, but doesn't take to racing under rules. 
As mentioned above Path To Freedom won in a faster time at Sheriff Hutton than the race Wither Or Not was 2nd in. That was his seasonal return and he then won a slowly run race at Duncombe Park beating Aintree Foxhunter 3rd Greensalt. He was 2nd to Hazel Hill at Leicester in his first Hunter Chase and then was pulled up in the Heart Of All England. He is only 7 is there is a chance he can build on what he has done under rules previously and although I don't want to back him I wouldn't be surprised if he ran well.
The only other one I can give a chance to is Ballinahow Bill and I like his chances. I was fairly keen on his chances in the Heart Of All England at Hexham only for him to fall at 2 out. Dale Peters rode him that day and said he thought he would have won as he hadn't gone through the gears with him yet. He then went Stratford where he was very keen and didn't seem to be enjoying things at all and eventually ran himself into the ground. I just wonder if he didn't take to Stratford as he just didn't seem to handle the track. He has gone to new connections now and Charlotte Crane, who won on Seefood last week at Leicester, trains and rides him. He has been set two very tough tasks this season. First of all he was 3rd behind Foxhunter bound Haymount and then it was no surprise that Arthur's Secret beat him by 30L last time. I think he is the one horse who is over priced in the race at the moment.
You can give some sort of chance to Wither Or Not, Dance Of Time, Path To Freedom and Ballinahow Bill, but I think the only chance one of them can win is if Diplomate Sivola disappoints because if he runs up to his handicap form he should be winning this. I do think Ballinahow Bill is worth a small bet e/w though at the prices and I will back him to finish 2nd to the favourite.
Ballinahow Bill 0.5pts e/w @ 14/1 Betfair, Paddy Power, Betfred and most others
Diplomate Sivola to beat Ballinahow Bill 0.5pts f/c

this is liverpool win all day long. sure it's a derby but everton won't get anything from this match
marco silva is bad manager compared to klopp 
everton doesn't have attacking force of liverpool
everton are weak from set pieces and hence the low odds. it seems really silly to back everton in any way.

Am intrigued to see how Philip Kirby handles the recent big purchase Blaklion
Think the Grand National is the ultimate aim, but saw enough on his hurdle qualifier run a couple of weeks to suggest he would have an each way squeak in the Pertemps on the Thursday.
So have backed him for that race NRNB & BOG at 33-1 with Bet 365

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that's absolutely right and nottingham forest are my main bet this round

In the end Risk A Fine was done for a turn of foot by a good horse and the better horse certainly won. I am sure the winner will add to his victories in Hunter Chases for Maxwell as it was a really good performance. The winner might be as good as I thought he was, but at the same time he isn't always going to bump into a horse like Monsieur Gibraltar, but I was a bit surprised that Creative Inerta finished as close as he did. That one could be of interest at the right level on the back of this run.
The Musselburgh race went to plan though as Shimla Dawn was able to front run and see off the others who tried to go with him. He jumped well and kept up some pace the whole way round. This was a weak race, but if connections target him at the right races he will win more. To be fair we don't know what Gran Paradiso would have done as he was in contention when coming down. My gut feeling is that his jockey panicked and realised he needed to make up the ground as he was a long way behind the winner and that effort might have told in the closing stages. Killer Crow had drifted like a barge all day and then was backed on track so connections clearly fancied him. Not surprisingly though he couldn't live with the pace and was about 30L at least behind the winner at one stage. He ran on for a distant 2nd but even that was hard work for him and he doesn't strike me as a betting proposition to be honest. Flying Eagle was weak on track although to be fair I think it was just a case of him not being good enough as he tried to go with the winner.
2 Hunter Chases again tomorrow although the Taunton preview will be short. The only worry about Master Baker winning is the trip as he has never run over 2m before, but otherwise it will be surprising if he doesn't win easily. He looks to have enough pace for it and this is such a weak contest he should get away with it. He fell at the last when in front in the John Corbet Cup and that was a really good effort. Bletchley Castle is his only other serious rival. He ran for the first time after over 500 days off at Sheriff Hutton last month and finished a decent enough 3rd. This trip is much more suitable and his last win was over 2m1f at Fontwell 2 years ago. That was off a mark of 99 though and it was over hurdles. I think he will make the running and Master Baker will track him before outclassing him at the finish. The rest have no chance and given the prices this is very much a no bet race.
10 minutes before that though we have a really good race to look forward to at Ludlow. Ridgeway Flyer heads the betting for Paul Nicholls, but I get the feeling he is going down this route with him because he doesn't think he is well handicapped and he seems to have issue with his wind. He had wind op prior to his seasonal return when running 2nd at Wincanton on Firm ground in October. He than ran at Ascot the next month and ran no sort of race. I don't think he has that much leeway of running below his mark and still being able to win this and I always think its bad if a horse has had a wind op yet still needs a tongue-tie. In short I wouldn't be surprised if he won, but I am happy to back against him.
Arthur's Secret is some horse on his day and some of the performances he has put in in points in the last couple of seasons have been some of the most impressive seen. Last season he ended up being the 26th highest rated horse in points/hunter chases and he improved on his rating last time when blowing the field apart at Brocklesby. I saw the horse finish 3rd to Virak at Chaddesley Corbett in December and the horse pulled too hard and ran out of steam on his first start of the season. Abigail is not a great jockey and she struggles to control him at times, but she let him go on at Brocklesby and I think that is the way to ride him. Just let him go as when fit he clearly just keeps going. He was entered at Taunton and I think he would have won that, but it is interesting they have chosen this instead and he is more than capable of wining this. 
Queen Olivia ran a hell of a race on her seasonal debut to finish 2nd to the unstoppable Road To Rome and that obviously is strong form. She was getting over a stone in weight though, but the same is the case here as well compared to most of her main rivals. I'm sure she will run well again, but I just wonder if she will be quite good enough to win.
Now Ben has just been seen the once this season when he beat Just Cause at Cottenham in December. He only ended up in one Hunter Chase last season when pulling up at Stratford, but the over-watered ground was very much against him. The ground has certainly come in his favour tomorrow and he was impressive over course and distance a couple of years ago before going on to win the John Corbet Cup at Stratford. He usually makes the running, but doesn't have to and I would imagine if Abigail goes on Alex will take a lead on him. I think he has it in him to run a big race.
The only other one to consider is last year's John Corbet Cup winner Garde Ville who makes his seasonal debut. To me this looks like a starting point for his season more than anything else, because I think he wants more of a stamina test and a bit of cut in the ground. Given the likely pace I can see him being outpaced and not being able to make up the ground to get near them over this sharp test. I also don't think it was the strongest renewal of the John Corbet Cup and plenty didn't handle the over-watered ground that day.
I respect Queen Olivia and I wouldn't be shocked if Ridgeway Flyer won, but I am happy to take him on. I think this test looks ideal for Arthur's Secret and I really hope she just lets him stride along and played catch me if you can because I don't think they will catch him. I think Now Ben is worth a saver as he has his ideal conditions tomorrow and he will be poised in behind Arthur's Secret if he does happen to run out of steam.
Arthur's Secret 2pts @ 3/1 with BetVictor, Betfred and Betway
Now Ben 1pt @ 6/1 with Bet365 and Paddy Power

i cannot believe this piece of shit birmingham and their goblin manager. how many times will they screw me over. i back them to lose against qpr, they won, backed to win over bolton, they lost, backed them to lose against blackburn, they drew, backed them tonight lose against bristol city and they bloody win. they're a joke

I have decided to put up Risk A Fine as a bet. I didn't really want to back him at odds on last night and I was seeing how far the drift was going to go but I think he is worth a small bet now. I can't be certain, but given how impressed I was with him at Chaddesley I think he does have the ability to beat MG. For me under Rules when MG has won he has won weak races and just outclassed the opposition. If he does win today I think it will be a new PB form him and as mentioned above 4lbs plus a better jockey for me swings it into Risk A Fine's favour.
Risk A Fine 1pt @ 5/4 with Bet365