Hunter Chases - Wincanton 5.00 and Musselburgh 5.20

[Darran]

Let's start with the good thing that happened at Leicester and that is Seefood's win in the big race. I suspect most people got around 7/2 rather than the 6/1 it was when I posted and it took me by surprise that he was backed by just after 8am. He continued to be well supported all day so we we beat the SP anyway. He did it well and it seems Aintree is the target which isn't a big surprise given his 2nd in the Grand Sefton. Think winning will be a step too far, but I can see him running well. The Last But One ran well enough but was never getting to the winner. I was right to be a bit wary of what he had done in points although he could pick up an average Hunter Chase I imagine. Mantou didn't stay and pulled up in the end, whilst Champagne West was stuffed after making the running. If you are being kind you could say he might improve for the run, but I think it's a case of the have paid way too much money for him and he won't be winning a Hunter Chase this season.

If we get a more unlucky loser than Drumlynn this season then I will be surprised and it was a new one for me getting a horse beat that was 1/4 in the photo betting on Betfair. I thought he had held on and was celebrating a winner, then when I saw the freeze frame I thought at worse its a dead heat and then Emily Jones went and announced Asangy as the winner. It was pretty hard to take especially when seeing an image on the print on Twitter suggested it looked a dead heat. However Luke Harvey put a print up and it was much clearer to see on there. To add to the drama Luke and Emily were romantically involved a few years ago! Hard to know if it was a case of him getting tired or what, but he seemed to be giving his all because I did think Asangy was going to catch him before he did jumping the last. I'd be amazed if Luke didn't find an opening for him in a Hunter Chase at some point. The winner clearly had no issues with the ground and he is an improved horse which I thought he might do after his Cartmel run last season. I think this was a personal best effort and he might do better stepping up in trip slightly. 

Brave Jaq wasn't as keen as he was last season, but he still didn't see the trip out and a bad mistake at 3 out did for him. If we don't see him among the entries next Friday I would be very surprised and he would have an obvious chance if he goes there. Given the outsider was 4th it doesn't say much for what the other 3 did although Changeofluck was clearly done for pace over this trip on fast ground.

Looking forward to watching Wincanton's Hunter Chase tomorrow as I think we have two really good horses taking each other on in Monsieur Gibraltar and Risk A Fine. David Maxwell has purchased the former since he won the Coronation Cup at Larkhill 10 days ago. It is amazing he is only 8 because he has been in Hunter Chases and points for 3 years now. He has won 4 Hunter Chases including bolting up over 2m at Cheltenham last May and he is pretty much unbeatable in points as only Cousin Pete has beaten him in 9 points. That includes 3 wins this season all at Larkhill and all under Harriett Tucker. He looks to have his ideal conditions tomorrow.

Those who read my Fakenham preview will know I really like Risk A Fine and was really impressed over Christmas on his seasonal debut. As I mentioned after Fakenham the track and trip didn't suit and he is much better than he was able to show that day. This will be a much stiffer test, but he does get 4lbs and has the better jockey. He will lead although I can't imagine Maxwell will be far away and it could be some battle between the two of them. As for having a bet I can't put anything up at the moment as there no margin for error in the prices as things stand. At this stage it will be a case of sitting back and enjoying the race.

20 minutes later we head to Musselburgh and I have been going round in circles with the race, but have come up with a bet. The favourite with most bookies is Killer Crow which is understandable given he had a couple of these in behind when just being beaten at Friars Haugh last month. The concern for me though is his best run last season came in the same race and he didn't show a great deal otherwise although the Kelso Hunter Chase run wasn't that bad especially in the context of this race. So as much as it makes sense he is the market leader I am happy to take him on at the price.

Gran Paradiso was one of those horses in behind Killer Crow and he has about 11L to make up on him based on that run. That was his 4th run of the season having won once at Alnwick the start before. He ran on Sunday over 3m5f and upset 1/2 shot One Conemara which if you took that effort at face value then he has a good chance in this. That venue though is described as an undulating stayers course so basically the complete opposite to Musselburgh and I am wondering if that win flattered him. I can understand why they are running him again so soon, but it will be some effort to go 3m after having run 3m5f just 3 days ago.

I wasn't a massive fan of Shimla Dawn's pointing form last season as I thought you could pick holes in it. He then somehow went off favourite for a strong race at Southwell where he couldn't lead and was never a factor behind Galway Jack. It was a much better effort at Kelso though where he did get to the lead and in the end he didn't stay the trip although the front 2 were good horses especially in the context of this race. At first glance he was disappointing on his return last month at Sheriff Hutton, but he ran like he needed it and again there is every chance he wouldn't of stayed anyway. That race was won in 6.55 and this race will be at least 40 seconds quicker I would imagine. The one concern is that he might not get an easy lead, but this is certainly weaker than the 2 Hunter Chases he ran in last season.

Flying Eagle is an interesting runner for me. I thought the trainer's Dad must have runners on the card, but he doesn't so he is going all this way by himself. He drifted like a barge ahead of his seasonal debut at Ludlow and ended up going off 40/1. That told you all he needed to know and he ran like he needed it although trying to keep up with Road To Rome wouldn't have helped either. He was then 3rd at Howick 10 days ago in a Novice Riders race. That form isn't too bad in the context of this and it could be that 3rd time up he will be hitting peak fitness. It is a long way to come and I think the market will tell a story, but he surely they think he can win this.

I would be a little surprised if Special Wells reversed form with Killer Crow and Gran Paradiso although again he will probably come on for the run as it was an improvement on his seasonal debut, whilst Tambour Major shouldn't be good enough.

I'd imagine this will be a truly run race as most of these like to be handy, but I do think Shimla Dawn is capable of seeing them all off and I think he is worth backing in a weaker race than the 2 Hunter Chases he ran in last year. I'm not sure Killer Crow will back up the effort last time and Gran Paradiso might have been flattered on Sunday and it will be a tough ask for him to win this after running 3m5f 3 days ago. Flying Eagle has the pick of the pointing form in this race albeit a couple of years ago, but he could be ready to show his true form after looking to need his first two runs and I think he is over priced, thus I will also be backing him.

Shimla Dawn 1pt @ 7/2 with William Hill, BetVictor and Paddy Power

Flying Eagle 1pt @ 9/2 with Bet365 and BetVictor

[yossa6133]

Risk a Fine 5/4 at the moment, temping getting 4lbs and if it's close the jockey should make the difference.

[Darran]

I have decided to put up Risk A Fine as a bet. I didn't really want to back him at odds on last night and I was seeing how far the drift was going to go but I think he is worth a small bet now. I can't be certain, but given how impressed I was with him at Chaddesley I think he does have the ability to beat MG. For me under Rules when MG has won he has won weak races and just outclassed the opposition. If he does win today I think it will be a new PB form him and as mentioned above 4lbs plus a better jockey for me swings it into Risk A Fine's favour.

Risk A Fine 1pt @ 5/4 with Bet365

Edited February 27, 2019 by Darran

[MCLARKE]

Excellent win with Shimla Dawn, again turned a losing day in to a winning one !