Hunter Chases - Taunton 4.55 and Ludlow 4.45

[Darran]

In the end Risk A Fine was done for a turn of foot by a good horse and the better horse certainly won. I am sure the winner will add to his victories in Hunter Chases for Maxwell as it was a really good performance. The winner might be as good as I thought he was, but at the same time he isn't always going to bump into a horse like Monsieur Gibraltar, but I was a bit surprised that Creative Inerta finished as close as he did. That one could be of interest at the right level on the back of this run.

The Musselburgh race went to plan though as Shimla Dawn was able to front run and see off the others who tried to go with him. He jumped well and kept up some pace the whole way round. This was a weak race, but if connections target him at the right races he will win more. To be fair we don't know what Gran Paradiso would have done as he was in contention when coming down. My gut feeling is that his jockey panicked and realised he needed to make up the ground as he was a long way behind the winner and that effort might have told in the closing stages. Killer Crow had drifted like a barge all day and then was backed on track so connections clearly fancied him. Not surprisingly though he couldn't live with the pace and was about 30L at least behind the winner at one stage. He ran on for a distant 2nd but even that was hard work for him and he doesn't strike me as a betting proposition to be honest. Flying Eagle was weak on track although to be fair I think it was just a case of him not being good enough as he tried to go with the winner.

2 Hunter Chases again tomorrow although the Taunton preview will be short. The only worry about Master Baker winning is the trip as he has never run over 2m before, but otherwise it will be surprising if he doesn't win easily. He looks to have enough pace for it and this is such a weak contest he should get away with it. He fell at the last when in front in the John Corbet Cup and that was a really good effort. Bletchley Castle is his only other serious rival. He ran for the first time after over 500 days off at Sheriff Hutton last month and finished a decent enough 3rd. This trip is much more suitable and his last win was over 2m1f at Fontwell 2 years ago. That was off a mark of 99 though and it was over hurdles. I think he will make the running and Master Baker will track him before outclassing him at the finish. The rest have no chance and given the prices this is very much a no bet race.

10 minutes before that though we have a really good race to look forward to at Ludlow. Ridgeway Flyer heads the betting for Paul Nicholls, but I get the feeling he is going down this route with him because he doesn't think he is well handicapped and he seems to have issue with his wind. He had wind op prior to his seasonal return when running 2nd at Wincanton on Firm ground in October. He than ran at Ascot the next month and ran no sort of race. I don't think he has that much leeway of running below his mark and still being able to win this and I always think its bad if a horse has had a wind op yet still needs a tongue-tie. In short I wouldn't be surprised if he won, but I am happy to back against him.

Arthur's Secret is some horse on his day and some of the performances he has put in in points in the last couple of seasons have been some of the most impressive seen. Last season he ended up being the 26th highest rated horse in points/hunter chases and he improved on his rating last time when blowing the field apart at Brocklesby. I saw the horse finish 3rd to Virak at Chaddesley Corbett in December and the horse pulled too hard and ran out of steam on his first start of the season. Abigail is not a great jockey and she struggles to control him at times, but she let him go on at Brocklesby and I think that is the way to ride him. Just let him go as when fit he clearly just keeps going. He was entered at Taunton and I think he would have won that, but it is interesting they have chosen this instead and he is more than capable of wining this. 

Queen Olivia ran a hell of a race on her seasonal debut to finish 2nd to the unstoppable Road To Rome and that obviously is strong form. She was getting over a stone in weight though, but the same is the case here as well compared to most of her main rivals. I'm sure she will run well again, but I just wonder if she will be quite good enough to win.

Now Ben has just been seen the once this season when he beat Just Cause at Cottenham in December. He only ended up in one Hunter Chase last season when pulling up at Stratford, but the over-watered ground was very much against him. The ground has certainly come in his favour tomorrow and he was impressive over course and distance a couple of years ago before going on to win the John Corbet Cup at Stratford. He usually makes the running, but doesn't have to and I would imagine if Abigail goes on Alex will take a lead on him. I think he has it in him to run a big race.

The only other one to consider is last year's John Corbet Cup winner Garde Ville who makes his seasonal debut. To me this looks like a starting point for his season more than anything else, because I think he wants more of a stamina test and a bit of cut in the ground. Given the likely pace I can see him being outpaced and not being able to make up the ground to get near them over this sharp test. I also don't think it was the strongest renewal of the John Corbet Cup and plenty didn't handle the over-watered ground that day.

I respect Queen Olivia and I wouldn't be shocked if Ridgeway Flyer won, but I am happy to take him on. I think this test looks ideal for Arthur's Secret and I really hope she just lets him stride along and played catch me if you can because I don't think they will catch him. I think Now Ben is worth a saver as he has his ideal conditions tomorrow and he will be poised in behind Arthur's Secret if he does happen to run out of steam.

Arthur's Secret 2pts @ 3/1 with BetVictor, Betfred and Betway

Now Ben 1pt @ 6/1 with Bet365 and Paddy Power

Edited February 27, 2019 by Darran

[yossa6133]

Thanks again Darran , Arthur's Secret smashed them!! And at 4/1! BOG did me a solid favour there too.

[Darran]

Although I haven't written too much about the Racing Post Spotlight's and post race analysis since the season started but I have to make reference to what was said about the Ludlow race to show how clueless they are (with one or two exceptions) when it comes to Hunter Chases. Ben Hutton wrote today's Spotlight and he ended his view on Arthur's Secret saying that he isn't favoured by these weights. He tipped up Ridgeway Flyer by basically saying anything close to his best and he will win. Now the winner has a BHA rating of 110 and the Nicholls horse has a mark of 137. In a handicap Arthur's Secret would have been getting 27lbs instead of running of the same weight. The problem is Ben and most of the others fail to realise that handicap marks are a pointless when it comes to Hunter Chases. Ridgeway Flyer is running in one because he is viewed as being badly handicapped I suspect, whilst if Arthur's Secret ran in a handicap off 110 I would have a maximum bet on it. What it does mean though is that those of us who know our pointing form get a lovely price on horses up against the ex-rules runners. The winner was backed into favourite during the day, but then drifted like a barge before the off as the mug money came for the Nicholls horse and Queen Olivia no doubt because of the Road To Rome form. 

The only minor concern I had was in the very early stages as Now Ben and Garde Ville looked like they wanted to force the pace with the winner, but either their jockey's realised it was a pointless exercise or their horses just could keep up the pace. After that though there wasn't a moments doubt that Arthur's was going to win. He wasn't even keen today and he just ran at pretty sensible pace and just kept going like he does when in peak form. The Racing Post post race analysis said it was an ordinary Hunter Chase, but it wasn't you had good horses in this and the winner has made them look ordinary. He was 22L clear at the line and it could have been more. He got an entry at Aintree last season, but didn't go. The jockey would always be a concern, but if he went there this season he would have a huge chance. Nothing wrong with the runs from Now Ben, Queen Olivia and Garde Ville in 2nd, 3rd and 4th. Garde Ville not surprisingly was outpaced and then tired late on, but it was a good return. Ridgeway Flyer was beaten 49L by horses he would have been giving lumps of weight to in a handicap. Fair to say he is a long way from being a 137 horse!

I must admit I didn't back it, but how on earth Master Baker was allowed to go off 8/13 I will never know. The 1/3 he was last night was the right sort of price and it was no surprise that he bolted up by a huge margin. Bletchley Castle was miles clear of the rest and I guess he wont always bump into a horse as good as this, but I'm not sure he achieved a great deal here.

It has been a staggering start to the season with 12 of the 16 races I have tipped in being profitable. That sort of strike rate is impossible to keep up, but at least it means we have plenty in the bank should things go the other way. The next race isn't until Wednesday at Catterick.

[Darran]

Winners so far

Road To Rome 1.5pts @ 13/8

Road To Rome 1.5pts e/w @ 7/1

Road To Rome 3pts @ 11/10

Asockastar 1pt @ 9/4

Risk A Fine 4pts @ 8/11

Road To Rome 2pts @ 7/4

Bally River Boy 1pt e/w 3rd @ 12/1

Wonderful Charm 3pts @ 10/11

Shantou Flyer 2pts @ evs

Seefood 0.5pts @ 6/1

Shimla Dawn 1pt @ 7/2

Arthur's Secret 2pts @ 4/1

Total staked so far I make 35.5pts and 10.5pts have been losers. The returns are 72.88pts so I make that 37.38pts of profit so far

Edited February 28, 2019 by Darran

[Tommy. Dunn]

I must thank you for great write ups  Iam glad to say I followed you all the way .Things may change but you have prove your are well. worth listening to. Thank you for your input. 

[Darran]

Thanks Tommy. Like I say impossible to keep that sort of strike rate up, but as long as there is a good profit come the end of May that is all that matters.

[MCLARKE]

Also many thanks, you made me a nice £100 today.

[sb1961]

Superb Tipping Darran ,  the write up's are brilliant proving you are very knowledgeable on the subject .