MCLARKE

A slightly different angle today. One of the BET365 2 Feature 4/1 races is the 7.00 at Wolverhampton. Dorset Blue is best priced 11/1 which offers a value bet compared to the general odds on offer. 

A slightly different angle today. One of the BET365 2 Feature 4/1 races is the 7.00 at Wolverhampton. Dorset Blue is best priced 11/1 which offers a value bet compared to the general odds on offer. 

Ta. Perhaps there is some profit to be made with trainer stats. The problem is the relatively small sample size of data. Also a lot of the data is readily available, such as trainer course data, so may lead to these horses being over-bet. I will add it to my to do list.

This Saturday sees the annual running of the Ladbroke Trophy handicap Chase, known to many as the Henessey Gold Cup and won in the past by such legendry names as Arkle, Burrough Hill Lad and Denman to name but three. It’ll be run at Newbury over 3m 2f and the most important factor is that the ground is currently good to soft at the Berkshire track. The weather forecast for the week (though they can be as poor as some tipsters I know!) is bar a wet Wednesday predominantly dry which isn’t going to help the true mudlark if that forecast is right. 
Heading the weights for the field of 19 is Ballyoptic last seen pulling up in the Charlie Hall and his mark of 162 looks too high. Vinndication is a lovely old fashioned chaser who ran Cyrname to 2l in the aforementioned Charlie Hall and would have a real chance if the ground was soft but as already mooted conditions may stem away from him and a few others. Sam Brown is another who is better when the ground is hock deep and on those conditions would be the pick for me but unless the heavens open on the day I can’t be interested in Anthony Honeyball’s charge. Honeyball also has Regal Encore entered who won at Ascot recently but ran well in that race last year before pulling up here. He’s best at Ascot. 
Paul Nicholl’s has left in Secret Investor and Danny Whizzbang. The latter flopped in the Badger Beer at Wincanton last time and would take a bit chunk of faith to back him following that outing though his stable companion Secret Investor is high on my short list. A second season novice he benefited from having his wind done when sluishing up at Chepstow 6 weeks ago by 7 lengths from Potterman. The handicapper has raised him 9lb for that but he’s a decent good ground horse who likes to run from the front. He can run well here. 
Nicky Henderson’s Beware The Bear is a very interesting runner who finished 4th in the race last season from the same mark only beaten 2 ¼ lengths and that was his seasonal re-appearance so we shouldn’t be worried of his lack of a recent outing. In fact he was seen at Newbury’s Ladbroke Trophy gallop day only last week working all over the stone higher rated Santini! How much you can read into that I’m not sure but he’s a lively outsider for sure. 
Kidisart lines up for this with a run over hurdles in the Bet365 Hurdle at Wetherby last month, a race in which fellow challenger Copperhead pulled up in. The latter strikes me as more of a Welsh National type.  
Scottish challenger Aye Right ran a stormer when third to Cyrname in the Charlie Hall, 5lb behind Vinndication and despite a 4lb rise is still 7lb better off. He’s also got a Saturday engagement up at Newcastle.
Mister Malarkey was 6th last year off of the same mark and didn’t show enough at Ascot last time behind Regal Encore to be of interest to me here.
Tom George’s Black Op seems to have been around years although is still a nine year old. He’s lightly raced over fence with only six chase starts under his belt, notably when 1 ½ lengths second to the RSA winner Champ here last season at levels. That was a fine effort as Champ is now rated 13lb higher. The trip was too short on his re-appearance when 4th to Saturday’s Ascot winner Imperial Aura at Carlisle in the Charlie Parker Memorial. Sam Brown was 1 ¾ lengths ahead that day and although 6lb worse off is a definite player here. 
Kim Bailey also has Two For Gold in the race as well as Vinndication but as promising as he is with such a good profile for this he really needs soft/heavy ground and is overlooked. He also has an entry up at Newcastle on Saturday. 
David Bridgewater’s The Conditional was just touched off in this last year off of 137 but he came into the race having had two prep races and is 10lb higher today (he’s three times the price of Beware The Bear who was just behind him and 10lb worse off). To be fair to him he did improve further last season ending up winning the Ultima at the Festival. 
La Bague Au Roi likes Newbury but she looks to have fallen out of love with the game currently.
Alan King intends to saddle Potterman who has finished runner up at Chepstow (7l 2nd to Secret Investor and 4lb better off) and Wincanton (Badger Beers beaten a short head). He likes good ground so it would not be a shock if we have a dry week that he runs well. And 20/1 about him looks quite big.
Ardlethen and The Hollow Ginge are not for me but bottom weight Cloth Cap is very tempting. Touted by his trainer Jonjo O’Neill as an ideal National horse he is best on good ground which he didn’t have at all in four runs last season. He had some decent ground first time out this season when third to Frodon in a Cheltenham handicap. That will have put him in good shape for this and he can race off of a 2lb lower mark as he was 2lb out of the handicap then.  I’m not sure who will ride him as the obvious fit would be Jonjo O’Neil Junior but the lowest weight he’s ridden at in the last year is 10-6 so his regular pilot Richie McLernon will probably ride as he can do 10-0.
 
Summary:-
With a dryish (bar Wednesday) forecast I’ve dropped out the mudlarks Vinndication, Sam Browne & Two For Gold. My short list comprises of Secret Investor, Beware The Bear, Black Op and Cloth Cap. I’m wary of the fact that most firms will have enhanced place terms come declaration time and there is likely to be a near maximum field so I don’t suggest big stakes in a race it may pay to back two each way now and to re-visit come declaration time. So after much deliberation :-
 
BLACK OP 1 point each way @ 8/1 ¼ odds 1-2-3-4  bet365
 
SECRET INVESTOR 1 point each way @ 16/1 ¼ odds 1-2-3-4 BetVictor
 

Ta. Perhaps there is some profit to be made with trainer stats. The problem is the relatively small sample size of data. Also a lot of the data is readily available, such as trainer course data, so may lead to these horses being over-bet. I will add it to my to do list.

I don't normally follow trainers as such but according to my statistics P Hobbs is the most profitable trainer in November and there are 2 selections that pass my other tests, both at Ludlow.
1.35 WILDLIFE WARRIOR 9/4
3.20 PILEON 13/8
 

Interesting angle Chris, I'm surprised I haven't looked at it before.
From my own NH database the following courses have been profitable for CD winners.
  WIN  RUN  RESULT  E  PS  PP  AE  Taunton 53 203 38.19 43 74 17 1.25 Sandown 35 196 -4.88 32 71 9 1.11 Chepstow 40 229 -32.16 36 66 8 1.12 Plumpton 51 227 25.44 47 76 7 1.08 GOWRAN 13 74 -19.13 11 28 6 1.15 Naas 24 117 6.14 20 34 6 1.18 Carlisle 36 171 41.21 31 57 5 1.16 Cheltenham 59 378 77.00 52 92 5 1.14 Haydock 19 95 6.98 16 28 4 1.16 Sedgefield 76 415 -34.65 74 113 2 1.02 Catterick 31 139 20.71 28 55 2 1.10 Towcester 18 78 26.95 15 23 2 1.19 Aintree 13 101 32.54 13 19 2 1.04 Wetherby 42 226 -34.85 41 67 2 1.03 Tramore 9 57 19.62 8 10 1 1.18 Hexham 25 157 18.04 24 35 1 1.05 Newcastle 32 164 10.46 31 46 1 1.04 Wexford 4 21 6.98 3 4 1 1.34 Lingfield 18 95 -9.86 18 26 1 1.02 Limerick 15 103 -28.49 15 22 1 1.02  
A note of caution, last season had a particularly poor return with an AE of 0.88 compared to 1.01 for the last 7 years. The strike rate has fallen from 18.1% to 13.5%, I am struggling to think of any reason for this.

It may not be the best day's racing but we get to see the chase debut of the Supreme novice Hurdle winner SHISKIN (1.25 Kempton). Apparently his schooling has been sensational down at Nicky Henderson's base at Seven Barrows and he's starting out in the very same race that Altior started his chasing career  in a few years back. Hes unbackable at around 1/6 but I cant wait to see him jump a fence.
Henderson can also take the first at Kempton with his Ascot winner CAPTAIN MORGS (12.50). Henderson always runs a good novice in this race and he has  Kim Bailey's Ajero to beat.
 
One trainer who is flying at the moment is Tom Symonds with 6 wins from his last 15 runners, he has a new assistant in former trainer David Dennis with him this season and an ex inmate of Dennis' is MR WASHINGTON (2.45 Ludlow) who was an impressive winner on his first run under Symonds's name at Chepstow and despite a 8lb rise looks the day's best bet.
MR WASHINGTON 2 points win @ 15/8 betvictor
 

I don't normally follow trainers as such but according to my statistics P Hobbs is the most profitable trainer in November and there are 2 selections that pass my other tests, both at Ludlow.
1.35 WILDLIFE WARRIOR 9/4
3.20 PILEON 13/8
 

Todays selections


MUSSELBURGH 12:40 Celtic Flames 8/1 e/w 4 Places

MUSSELBURGH 13:15 Tontos Spirit 11/1 e/w 2 Places

MUSSELBURGH 13:50 Raymond 9/4 win

plus e/w trixie

I don't normally follow trainers as such but according to my statistics P Hobbs is the most profitable trainer in November and there are 2 selections that pass my other tests, both at Ludlow.
1.35 WILDLIFE WARRIOR 9/4
3.20 PILEON 13/8
 

I don't normally follow trainers as such but according to my statistics P Hobbs is the most profitable trainer in November and there are 2 selections that pass my other tests, both at Ludlow.
1.35 WILDLIFE WARRIOR 9/4
3.20 PILEON 13/8
 

I don't normally follow trainers as such but according to my statistics P Hobbs is the most profitable trainer in November and there are 2 selections that pass my other tests, both at Ludlow.
1.35 WILDLIFE WARRIOR 9/4
3.20 PILEON 13/8
 

I don't normally follow trainers as such but according to my statistics P Hobbs is the most profitable trainer in November and there are 2 selections that pass my other tests, both at Ludlow.
1.35 WILDLIFE WARRIOR 9/4
3.20 PILEON 13/8
 

Going to try and do my own ratings for a race on Friday . Class 2 at Newbury. Been up all night with notepad and pen crunching the numbers as they say ? .seriously though got something in my head that I’m going to try . It’s a bit time consuming, mind. I’ll be taking into account the following...
Prize money won 
Distance
Going
Class
Course form 
Current mark 
Form 
Trainer/jockey form 
see how it does. Basically at the moment I’m mainly looking at prize money won, which has its moments, but want to try and develop it. 

Haha, I'll expect a knock on the door from the police !

just seen this stats
 1.45 navan Willie Mullins targets this race with his decent novice chasers. Vautour, Douvan, Min and Al Boum Photo have all been victorious in this race down the years Mullins won this six times in the last seven years, the year he didn’t win, he didn’t have a runner!  blackbow is 6/4 to make it 7

There's a 55.5% chance a trainer with the surname Williams will win the 2.08 at Exeter however I'll take a chance with T.Symonds charge SAINT DE VASSY 7/2 sky bet .  1ST 5/2
Has been off course since being pulled up 260 days ago when reportedly bled , is lightly raced & trainer flying of late 6 from 13 last 14 days .
 
There's 3 Group 2 races at Sha Tin tomorrow morning all with $4.5 million prize money , no wonder UK , Irish & French trained horses are ending up there & in the US with the amazing prize money on offer FURORE in the 8.10 has good chance but at 6/4 no value unfortunately .  1ST 2/1

3rd.         Returns £90
Bank £529

Excellent start by The Brigadier with a nice profit for the day including the nap.
Also good to see that he is keeping up the BH tradition with the profits coming from those at 4/1 and above !

Excellent start by The Brigadier with a nice profit for the day including the nap.
Also good to see that he is keeping up the BH tradition with the profits coming from those at 4/1 and above !

Excellent start by The Brigadier with a nice profit for the day including the nap.
Also good to see that he is keeping up the BH tradition with the profits coming from those at 4/1 and above !

The big race of the weekend may well be Lostintranslation taking on Bristol De Mai in the Betfair Chase at Haydock but from a punting view the race which takes the eye is the Betfair Exchange Stayer’s Handicap Hurdle.
A field of 24 declared at the five day stage and with more rain forecast throughout the week the current ground conditions of soft can only go one way – a typical Haydock quagmire in store I feel.
Some big names have won this prestigious contest throughout the years including Sam Spinner and Paisley Park and this year’s weights are headed by top chaser Kalashnikov who will surely struggle at 3m if taking his chance.
The most intriguing runner in the field has to be Ronan McNally’s The Jam Man who absolutely bolted up in the Troytown Handicap Chase last time and reverts to hurdles here but off of a 14lb higher mark – he wont mind the conditions that’s for sure and with his trainer mooting earlier in the week a possible tilt at the Stayers Hurdle he would be one to have on your shortlist.
David Pipe has an excellent record in this race having won it 3 times in the last 10 with Grand Crus, Dynaste and Gevrey Chambertin and relies upon the remarkable Main Fact who has won 8 races on the bounce (5 hurdles and 3 on the level). The ground cannot be soft enough for him and although he’s yet to race beyond 2m 4f his style of running suggests he’ll even appreciate stepping up in trip as he only ever seems to get going at the finish of his races. He was some buy at a mere £6,000 out of Dianne Sayer’s stable, winning 8 of his 9 races since amassing £62,00 in prize money alone. He’s a worthy favourite and if he was to triumph here the 50/1 about him winning the Stayers Hurdle with bet 365 would look some value. Pipe also has Duc De Beauchene in the race and owned by legendary JP McManus is also very interesting. He landed a punt at the Open meeting at Cheltenham last season and although he disappointed subsequently he remains a dangerous horse off of bottom weight (he does have an alternate entry on Sunday at Uttoxeter)
Dan Skelton’s West To The Bridge comes here in good form having won at Carlisle last time but has to race off of a career high mark of 140 and that might be his undoing.
Fergal O’Brien is having a tremendous season so far and his novice Imperial Alcazar comes here as one of the well backed favourites following two novice hurdle victories last season though his best effort came when a neck runner up to chasing sensation Protektorat at Cheltenham on New Years Day . He steps up in trip and his mark looks workable for sure.
Portrush Ted is obviously a hard horse to train as he has only raced 8 times over the last 4 seasons but his record following a break of 87 days or more is  excellent (12111) He stays well and handles the mud so could be a player here.
Irish raider Relegate has raced only 3 times for Colm Murphy having been transferred from Willie Mullins’ yard and was outclassed last time. He’s 2lb lower now than when going off favourite for the Pertemps Final at Cheltenham last March and finishing 5th.
Olly Murphy runs two with Collooney having to prove his stamina and I K Brunel reverting back to the smaller obstacles after two runs in novice chases this Autumn. The Murphy yard seem out of sorts at the moment with a mere 2 winners from the last 45 runners so this pair are easily overlooked.
Cill Anna and Highland Hunter represent Paul Nicholls with preference for the former who ran well up to the last at Wincanton on his reappearance and will appreciate the softer ground.
Summary:- 
Main Fact is still improving and could be yet another winner of this contest for his trainer David Pipe despite running at this trip for the first time.
The best outsider may be Warren Greatrex’s Portrush Ted who has a terrific record fresh and appeals as one who could go well
Main Fact 1 point each way 7/1 Paddy Power
Portrush Ted ½ point each way 16/1 888 Sport
 
 
 

return 60.00, profit 40.00
this month - minus 72.50

1.50 hay- Le Ligerien 20/1 4places
2.25 hay- Ask Dillion 25/1 5places
3.35 hay-  Pobbles Bay  13/2  4places
Boylesports 3 e/w singles  3 e/w doubles  & 1 e/w treb