MCLARKE

It looks like the race distance has increased by a furlong or so in the last 2 years so I have extended my sample base to include 23/24f races.
7 out of 33 winners have had forecast odds of 8/1 or less compared to 4 from 117 with higher odds. This reduces the field from 19 to 4.
7 out of 52 came 1st or 2nd last time. This reduces the field to 2.
My favourite NH statistic, age less than 7. There have been 68 horses 7 or older and only 1 has won.
This leaves just one selection, IMPERIAL ALCAZAR. Currently available at 11/2 with 5 places available.
 
 

Tomorrow's single horse selection is in the 1.13 at Catterick. SHAW'S DILEMMA. One of 3 6yo, last ran 256 days ago. Available at 14/1 with BOG bookmakers.

Just the one horse tomorrow that is the only selection in a race.
MARKET RASEN 1.30 REGARDING RUTH. One of 2 6yo in the race, last ran 7 weeks ago. 
Available at 8/1 with BET365.

Nice treble !

15p deduction estimated ( I did on exchange in the end 13% deduction there) 2nd for the place 

MUCKAMORE (2.03 Market Rasen) makes his chasing debut in what looks an interesting novices’ handicap chase. An Irish point winner he ran three times in novice hurdles last season winning easily at Taunton in March at odds on. Prior to that he bumped in to two decent novices in Imperial Alcazar and Southfield Theatre. His initial mark of 125 looks fair with the only slight concern the ground which is officially good (good to soft in places). He’s only raced on soft ground so far in his short career but that’s not to say he won’t handle it well. His sire was 3rd in the Irish Derby on good to firm and won the Gran Criterium on heavy whilst on his distaff side there are good ground winners.
Trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies is in ok form with 5 winners from his last 39 runners (he had a winner at Ffos Las this afternoon) with his son Sam in the plate.
The main danger is another fencing newcomer Dr Newland’s  Minella Encore who has yet to be out of the frame in 8 runs under rules. He’ll be fit and should run well but I’ll take a chance on the Twiston-Davies 6 year old.
1 point win @ 2/1 bet365
FIRST LORD DE CUET (1.30 Market Rasen) was heavily punted when finding one too good at Sandown last time over 2m4f and will surely appreciate the step upto 2m 7f here as he is a former Irish point winner. He’s been raised 2lb for that effort and wears first time cheek pieces here which may help him in the finish. This is a Pertemps Hurdle qualifier for the final at Cheltenham in March so you may find a few of the higher rated horses happy to just finish in the first six to qualify for that day. No such issues with First Lord De Cruet as he need to get himself up the ratings to get himself into that final.
1 point win @ 3/1 Paddy Power
Roger Varian sends three up the A1 from Newmarket to Newcastle and he can be rewarded with a treble.
DUBLIN PHAROAH (1.50) appears to have little to beat and with conditions to suit can get the treble off to a flying start despite his short odds.
TEONA (2.50) bumped into a smart one of William Haggas’ on her debut over course and distance pulling well clear of the third. She’ll be well supported so take the first early price.
LEGION ON HONOUR (4.20) hasn’t been seen since running Devious Company to 3/4l at Haydock in June and with the winner that day going on to finish runner up in two Group 2’s and now rated 104 that was a fine effort. Back in 3rd was Jadoomi who’s now rated 106, 4th Youth Spirit now rated 104 and the 5th has won twice since (91). He’s had a slight setback since but is back working well and although Archie Watson’s Colonel Faulkner will have his follower’s I’m with the Varian horse to give the stable a Wolverhampton treble.
2 point win treble @ Evs, 4/7, Evs  (5.29/1) bet365
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

return 38.50, profit 18.50
this month minus 92.50
 

He had 14 runners in GB last year and they all lost.

Just the one horse tomorrow that is the only selection in a race.
MARKET RASEN 1.30 REGARDING RUTH. One of 2 6yo in the race, last ran 7 weeks ago. 
Available at 8/1 with BET365.

Just the one horse tomorrow that is the only selection in a race.
MARKET RASEN 1.30 REGARDING RUTH. One of 2 6yo in the race, last ran 7 weeks ago. 
Available at 8/1 with BET365.

Also fits the criteria of my handicap system, always good to have other evidence to back it up.

Also fits the criteria of my handicap system, always good to have other evidence to back it up.

I didn't realise that Punters Lounge was so influential !

Personally I don't like to have more than 1 selection in a race as I find it less enjoyable watching more than 1 horse. If I have more than 1 selection I tend to go for the shortest in the odds, the market is the best predictor of a race.

My poem wins at tidy price 10.5 taken and 3.5 place / 7-1 sp.

I didn't realise that Punters Lounge was so influential !

I agree, unless you expect the horse to lose (relative to the odds) there isn't any logic in laying it.
The only reason would be from a psychological perspective. Some people would prefer to make a profit of £10 a day for 5 days rather than lose £10 a day for 4 days and then a profit of £100 on the 5th day even though the latter option gives the highest profit overall.
I think the psychologists call it loss aversion. It suggests that the impact of a loss is twice as powerful as the impact of a gain.
It helps to explain why returns in the stock market are higher than in theory they should be. 

I agree, unless you expect the horse to lose (relative to the odds) there isn't any logic in laying it.
The only reason would be from a psychological perspective. Some people would prefer to make a profit of £10 a day for 5 days rather than lose £10 a day for 4 days and then a profit of £100 on the 5th day even though the latter option gives the highest profit overall.
I think the psychologists call it loss aversion. It suggests that the impact of a loss is twice as powerful as the impact of a gain.
It helps to explain why returns in the stock market are higher than in theory they should be. 

I'll stick with the method that gave me a winner today.
In the 3.40 handicap hurdle at Hexham 8 of the 17 runners are aged less than 7 but only 1 has been absent for more than 27 days, BUSHYPARK.
Currently available at 16/1 (BOG) with BET365. Again it may be worthwhile backing each way although rain is forecast so potentially there could be non runners that reduce the each way places.

For those that had the bet with Bet365 remember that is was one of their Feature 4/1 Offer races so if you backed it at more than 4/1 you will be entitled to a free bet equivalent to your stake (assuming you had less than the maximum £50!) on the 1.40 at Wincanton tomorrow.

I'll stick with the method that gave me a winner today.
In the 3.40 handicap hurdle at Hexham 8 of the 17 runners are aged less than 7 but only 1 has been absent for more than 27 days, BUSHYPARK.
Currently available at 16/1 (BOG) with BET365. Again it may be worthwhile backing each way although rain is forecast so potentially there could be non runners that reduce the each way places.

todays system selections

WARWICK 14:40 Valse Au Taillons 17/2 e/w 4 Places

WARWICK 15:15 Present Man 10/3 win

plus e/w double


One outwith the system

WARWICK 14:05 Stratagem 9/4 win

It seems to me to have the edge over Quick Grabim

I'll stick with the method that gave me a winner today.
In the 3.40 handicap hurdle at Hexham 8 of the 17 runners are aged less than 7 but only 1 has been absent for more than 27 days, BUSHYPARK.
Currently available at 16/1 (BOG) with BET365. Again it may be worthwhile backing each way although rain is forecast so potentially there could be non runners that reduce the each way places.

I'll stick with the method that gave me a winner today.
In the 3.40 handicap hurdle at Hexham 8 of the 17 runners are aged less than 7 but only 1 has been absent for more than 27 days, BUSHYPARK.
Currently available at 16/1 (BOG) with BET365. Again it may be worthwhile backing each way although rain is forecast so potentially there could be non runners that reduce the each way places.

I notice that BUSHYPARK's only win was in Ireland on going described as Yielding to Soft. I must admit the going descriptions confuse me a bit in Ireland, they have good to yielding, yielding and yielding to soft, does anybody know what the GB equivalents are.