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Posts posted by MCLARKE

  1. 3 hours ago, Tedthewolf said:

    Three fallers today that might  be worth keeping an eye on  in the near future imo.

     Potterman-Difinitly  Red-Shantou -Vllage 

    I think the fact that horses have fallen or unseated rider puts people off them so they often represent good value when they run next time.

    I noticed there were a couple on the TV races today, FLASHTHESTEEL won at 12/1 and THE HOLLOW GINGE placed at 50/1, hardly a representative sample but food for though and something else I need to look at in a bit more detail.

  2. 18 hours ago, Tedthewolf said:

    3.00  NEW 2 very strong e/w bets CLOTH CAP 9/1 runs well in these big handicap races  will love the ground  decent weight  will be very hard to beat imho  the others one is POTTERMAN 16/1  went so close lto due to go up in the weights   well over priced imo   both e/w with corals 1-5 1/5 bog and a RFC.


    Well done Ted with Cloth Cap.

    I had my reservations about my selection Copperhead because it was pulled up last time out and sure enough it was pulled up again, didn't even make it to half way.

  3. 5 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

    One Trixie bet today:

    11.45 Nc Castel Gandolfo 1/1
    12.35 Don Gunsight Ridge 5/4 (£6 win bet:  Best of all my selections)
    2.05 Nc Epatante 4/5

    One £2 win Trixie = £8 poss return of £40.50

    Other bets:

    12.55 Nc Getaround £1 win at 11/2
    1.30 Nc Aye Aye Charlie £2 win at 5/2
    3.15 Nc Whatmore £2 win at 11/4
    3.00 Nb Secret Investor £1 win at 8/1

    Total stakes = £20


    Two winners in my Trixie. The double paid £8.10 so I got my money back.  Net win of 10p so the balance c/fwd is £616.04 (Bank £800).  The same goes for my top rated multiples and there on going balance is - £7.65

    Get around won at 10/1 but Betfair Sportsbook only paid me out at my stakes price of 11/2.  I have been trying to get hold of them to query this but their "message us" facility just whirls round and round displaying help is on its way and does not load.  The only reason I bet with them is primarily for BOG prices as Bet365 has cut me off from this.  I think that Betfair help is very very poor. Whenever I have a query with them they have never amended a result in my favour.  

    Anyway I'll post up the win as £6.50 together with the win on Gunsight Ridge of £13.50 = £20 v £12 outlay so a profit of £8.  My singles balance c/fwd is now £146.18 (Bank £400)

    At least I didn't lose today and though the thought of choosing many short priced favourites for my Trixies in the future worries me a little I am going to persevere with it throughout out December and hopefully will find it a profitable exercise to continue into the new year.




    Well done with the winner.

    Have you taken the lower commission offer from Betfair? I think if you do then you are not eligible for any of their other offers.

  4. I would normally agree with you but in these situations the money back offer automatically inflates the value of the favourite so that it in most instances it automatically becomes a value bet. 

    So I just stick my tenner on the favourite near the off knowing that long term I will make about 15% return.

    It is also the only time I will take SP as BOG is not available on these and the prices offered are often less than those offered by other bookies.

    If I have a selection in the race that is not the favourite I will still place that bet but my first tenner will still go on the favourite.



  5. I'll stick with my trends analysis as this has worked well the past couple of weeks with the winner coming from the shortlist of 3 in each of the 3 races.

    The main stats are :-

    89 at forecast odds higher than 10/1, all have lost. This reduces the field to 6.

    78 have carried 11st or less and only 2 have won. This reduces the field to 3.

    23 have carried 11st 6 lbs or more, all have lost. This reduces the field to 2, KILDISART and COPPERHEAD.

    Maybe worth an each way punt on these, especially with bookies paying up to 6 places.

    If I had to choose I would probably go with COPPERHEAD as it is a 6 year old although the fact it was pulled up last time is a bit off-putting.

  6. 3 hours ago, Trotter said:

    By this time of year the handicapper has probably got a grip of most 3 and 4 year olds and they've found their level in the handicap and the WFA has disappeared

    My system relates to NH rather than the flat. I think it may relate to the fact that in NH older horses are perhaps more well known and therefore potentially over-bet.

    I have found that this system is not very effective in March and April, perhaps the same logic appears here as in your flat example.

    I suppose a horse reaches it's peak at a certain age, I think this is 5 on the flat, not sure what it is for hurdlers and jumpers.

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