MCLARKE
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Posts
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Posts posted by MCLARKE
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5 hours ago, MCLARKE said:
BET365 4/1 Offer
CHEL 1.55 Torn And Frayed 5.00 A welcome winner but on the back of 9 losers in January. I also made the schoolboy error of forgetting to use the free bet on the next ITV race, doh !
So a loss of £200 in January and a cumulative loss of £1,225.
- The Equaliser and Wildgarden
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BET365 4/1 Offer
CHEL 1.55 Torn And Frayed 5.00 -
AW selection
Kempton 7.05
RED FLYER 11/2
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NH selection
Cheltenham 3.05
CHAMP 4/7
- Wildgarden and The Equaliser
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2
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Fairyhouse 2.15
HA D'OR 4/11
£20 win BET365
- Wildgarden and The Equaliser
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2
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KEMPTON 5.00
NOBLE ORDER 1/2
BET365
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10 minutes ago, fd1972uk said:
ust cant do it with doyle on it, shes the most useless jockey when I back her. Was quite funny (well not for me) the other day looked at hooves like jagger ay 8s, noticed she was on it so left it, comes in to win, lol.
Yep, I always get a sinking feeling when I see my horse is ridden by a female jockey, my woke daughters role their eyes when I mention this !
I must admit I don't have any data to back this up, I'll have to trawl through my data to see what I can find.
I do remember reading that female jockeys are actually good value because they are under bet as most punters are old sexist dinosaurs like myself !
- fd1972uk, Nigwilliam and Wildgarden
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- MinellaWorksop, gbettle, Wildgarden and 1 other
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Now 4 just points separating the top 5.
- gbettle, Wildgarden and MinellaWorksop
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AW selection
Wolverhampton 6.15
BEGGARMAN 7/5
- azzybear, The Equaliser and Zilzalian
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3
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NH selection
Doncaster 1.50
WHITE PEPPER 11/10
- azzybear and The Equaliser
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2
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Huntingdon 2.35
VIENNA COURT 8/13
£20 win BSP
- The Equaliser and Wildgarden
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Lingfield 3.20
PILLARS OF EARTH 15/8
WH
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Yes, that is the quandary, we have to remember that we are not looking for the most likely winner but the horse that offers the best value. How we measure that is the great debate.
- The Equaliser and Wildgarden
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Personally I don't factor jockeys or trainers in to my analysis (apart from claimers).
There is a logic in female jockeys because they are generally weaker than men. This applies in most sports, the number 200 ranked male tennis player had a match against the Williams sisters when they were at the top and beat Serena 6-1 and Venus 6-2.
I think we are prejudiced by our losers and look for someone or something to blame when in reality it is all down to chance.
- gbettle, Zilzalian and The Equaliser
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5 hours ago, MCLARKE said:
Wetherby 3.15
SHOLOKJACK 1/1
£20 win BSP
Won. BSP 3.40
Monthly profit £147.07
- gbettle, The Equaliser, Wildgarden and 2 others
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1
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I've had another look.
For the years 2014 to 2021 I get 194 winners from 382 runners with an AE of 1.024.
For some reason French bred have an exceptional record, with 82 winners from 134 runners and an AE of 1.20. Irish bred are 88 from 200 with an AE of 0.91.
1st last time out 58 from 105 with an AE of 1.05.
As you say, novices have a poor record so exclude them and you are left with 100 from 199 with an AE of 1.06.
Hot favourites may be best avoided, those with a BSP of less than 1.50 have a record of 48 from 69 with an AE of 0.91.
Certainly food for thought.
- Wildgarden, Budgie 65 and gbettle
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AW selection
Newcastle 3.53
FIRST CHARGE 7/4
- The Equaliser and Wildgarden
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2
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NH selection
Wetherby 3.45
SPOT ON SOPH 13/8
- The Equaliser and Wildgarden
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Wetherby 3.15
SHOLOKJACK 1/1
£20 win BSP
- Wildgarden, LEE-GRAYS, The Equaliser and 1 other
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1
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GOWRAN PARK 2.05
KLASSICAL DREAM 2/5
BET365
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Racing Chat - Saturday 29th January
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
£50, that's the maximum allowed for the offer.