Yalwen

Newmarket 1.50 The days racing at Newmarket kicks of with the Group 3 10F Zetalnd Stakes for two year olds. My initial thoughts were that I wanted to take on the short favourite Flying Honours trained by Charlie Appleby and ridden by William Buick but the more I delved into the race nothing really appealed against him. The favourite should relish the step up from a mile to ten furlongs and looked a top performer when an easy winner at Sandown and Salisbury (from subsequent winner Stormbuster) in the Summer. He went off a well backed 2/7 shot in the Royal Lodge last time when flopping in coming home only 3rd of the 4 runners beaten half a length. But for that defeat he would be an odds on chance here so if we can forgive him that effort then anything above evens is probably worth taking. The closest to the favourite on ratings is the Charlie and Mark Johnstone trained Dear My Friend who ran his best race to date last time when third in a listed contest in France. Maiden winners Galactic Jack, Tenerife Sunshine (also trained by the Johnstones) and Blanchland will all need to step up so let’s go with the favourite but to smallish stakes as he did bomb out last time.   FLYING HONOURS 2 points win @ 5/4 BetVictor   York 2.05 Nine assemble for the listed Rockingham Stakes run over 6F of the Knavesmire. William Haggas’s Alpha Capture appeared to improve for cheek pieces when just touched off on the line by Cold Case in a in sales race at Doncaster 30 days ago and with Tom Marquand riding looks likely to go close. Cold Case has gone on to win the big Redcar sales contest from Holguin who was back in third in the Doncaster race and the 4th that day Galeron has gone over to The Curragh and plundered the Goffs Million so the form has a very solid look about it and he’ll be hard to beat. His main danger appears to Roger Varian’s Bolt Action who followed up a credible runner up spot in a listed contest at Ayr to beat the well thought of Wallop at Salisbury a fortnight later. He’s officially rated the same as Alpha Capture and can make him fight all the way. Richard Fahey saddles Rousing Encore who was runner up to the useful Sakheer last time but there was only one winner that day and if there is a horse who could step forward massively for his debut run then surely it’s Johnny Murtagh’s Bay Of Plenty who was very green when winning on his debut at Naas 23 days ago and it must be significant that Murtagh brings him over from his County Kildare base.   ALPHA CAPTURE 2 points win @ 15/8 Coral BAY OF PLENTY 1/2 point each way @ 14/1 1/5th 123   Newmarket 2.25 Another two year old contest, this time the Group 3 Autumn Stakes run over a mile. Charlie Appleby’s Silver Knott let us down last time and has to shoulder a 3lb penalty here. The excuse for the lack lustre effort was the soft ground so he can be given another chance but I prefer Karl Burke’s Holloway Boy who can give Dewhurst favourite Nostrum a boost ahead of his race later on the card. He went down by a length and a quarter to Sir Michael Stoute’s smart juvenile over seven furlongs here a fortnight ago with the strongly fancied Victory Dance 3L away in third. That was a strong piece of form and the extra furlong should suit him. Epictetus is a very interesting runner who seemingly won unfancied in a maiden at the July course on his debut 92 days ago. That form has worked out well with four winners coming out of the race and he could easily be a player here but I’m sticking with the best form line of Holloway Boy.   HOLLOWAY BAY 2 points win @ 16/5 Paddy Power   York 2.40 A disappointing turnout for the time of the year for this 1m 2 1/2F class 2 handicap with just six entered including one (What’s The Story ) who also has an entry on Friday. Stay Well looks held by rival Marching Army and top weight Algiers has plenty on here on the back of a long absence for The Crisford’s. Saga has become a disappointing horse though does try a new trip today and this may be fought out by Saeed Bin Suroor’s Marching Army who’s chasing a hat trick of wins and William Haggas’s Protagonist who was badly drawn last time out in the Cambridgeshire. It’s hard to split the pair with slight preference for the latter who ended up finishing second of eight on his far side group last time and on his previous two victories at Doncaster and Sandown looks sure to be thereabouts.   PROTAGONIST 1 point win @ 11/4 Betfred   Newmarket 3.00 Next up is the Group 1 Dewhurst Stakes for two year olds run over 7F of the Rowley mile. Unfortunately Sakheer who was supplemented on Monday was taken out of the race at the eleventh hour with a dirty scope which must have been infuriating for his connections. The warm favourite here is Sir Michael Stoute’s Nostrum who looked so good when winning over course and distance 16 days ago from Holloway Boy who runs in the previous race and could well give him a late form boost. As smart as he looked that day he represents scant value to my eyes at around the 6/4 mark and it’s the owners other runner trained by Andrew Balding Chaldean who I want to be with. He’s beaten the same horse (Indestructible) on his last two outings and there will no doubt be people asking what he’s actually beaten but his trainer was very complimentary after his latest win saying he’s a ‘high class horse in the making’ and with some firms paying three places here in this seven runner contest can be played each way. Charlie Appleby saddles his Naval Power who’s stepping up in grade having won two listed contests but didn’t blow me away with his performance last time and looks short enough in the market at around 10/3. I wouldn’t discount Brian Meehan’s Isaac Shelby who’s had a break since winning the Group 2 Superlative Stakes back in July. He looks over priced at double figure odds.   CHALDEAN 1 1/2 points each way @ 4/1 bet365 1/5 123   York 3.15 A widely competitive twenty two runner 6F class 2 sprint completes the televised York coverage. Interestingly 8 of the last 10 winners of this race were drawn in a single figure stall so it may pay to concentrate on those drawn low. That would rule our Gulliver who’s won two of the last three renewals of this event off of higher handicap marks (drawn in 22) and last year’s runner up Laugh A Minute from stall 21. Course specialist (5 wins from 11 starts) Dakota Gold looks interesting from stall 2 and likewise from box 1 Roger Varian’s Dusky Lord who took his field apart in the Ayr Silver Cup last time for which he’s been given a 9lb rise in the weights. I’ll take him to back that win up although I wouldn’t discount last year’s winner Volatile Analyst at big price to bounce back to form.   DUSKY LORD 1 point each way @ 8/1 William Hill 1/5th 123456   Newmarket 3.40 For the first time this century we have less than thirty runners contesting this years renewal of the Cesarewitch Handicap with a mere 23 runners going to post for the 2m 2F contest. Following the sad news of the Pipe’s Adagio dropping down dead following a a heart attack on the gallops on Friday morning ( who incidentally would of been a very strong fancy of mine) the market is now headed by two NH trainers in Nicky Henderson’s Ahorsewithnoname and Charles Byrne’s Run For Oscar. Both have solid chances with my slight preference for the former who’s been trained for this just like last years winner Buzz by the Seven Barrows maestro. She won two two mile handicaps in the Spring in facile fashion and despite a 10lb rise for her latest win at York could still be ahead of her mark. Ryan Moore has been booked and she’s the main bet in the race. Others that can run well include Frankie Dettori’s mount Zoffee who didn’t get the clearest of runs when last seen at York in August whilst Gibraltar is one of three left in by Irish trainer Willie Mullins who has a good record in the race having won three of the lat four renewals. His other two runners are Scaramanga (first run for the Closutton trainer) and Baby Zeus (now the mount of William Buick) and have to be given respect. She may not be much of a price for such a big field handicap but Ahorsewithnoname can take this for Henderson who’s won this race three times before.   AHORSEWITHNONAME 2 points each way @ 4/1 William Hill 1/5th 123456

Update.
The trial continues to disappoint.
Since the last update there have been 10 winners from 20 runners with a loss of 5.77 points at SP and 4.54 points at early prices.
Overall now there have been 19 winners from 40 runners with a loss of 14.07 points at SP and 11.25 points at early prices.
Not much to be encouraged by although for those selections with odds of 1/3 or less there have been 6 winners from 7 selections with a profit at early prices of 9%. All these selections shortened in the betting.
Over the period I have been running the trial the loss of all odds on favourites has been 8% which is a little worse than the longer term average. The SP loss of my selections has been 35%. Hopefully this is just down to the randomness of numbers and will revert to the mean or for some reason my selection process is picking poor selections.

Profit of just over 6 points on the day with winners at 13/8 & 7/2 and a few places as well.

The ground is crucial at the three televised UK Cards on Saturday with a big band of rain moving across the country mid afternoon Friday into the evening and I’m taking a chance that the ground will be on the easy side at all three meetings. If the forecast is right we may be able to seek out some value on the soft ground performers now. Let’s hope the rain arrives in bucket loads or it’s going to be an expensive afternoon !   Newmarket 1.31 Newmarket’s card kicks off with a 10F class 2 handicap for fillies where we have many lightly raced types. My two against the field are George Boughey’s I’ll Be There and Sir Michael Stoute’s Crystal Estella with the latter making her handicap debut today. Both won last time out in soft ground so they’ll be no issues with not handling the ground here. A couple whom have yet to encounter easy ground are favourite Al Husn and Persist. I’ll split my two fancies and back both win only with the Stoute runner Crystal Estella the favoured of the duo with her latest winning jockey William Buick stating after he had won on her at Goodwood back in May that she ‘likes the ground which was key’. She has an absence to overcome but can be competitive with Richard Kingscote now in the plate. Boughey’s I’ll Be There will be ridden by Buick himself having won on her on her stable debut at Sandown 17 days ago on soft ground. She’s been raised 6lb for that success.   CRYSTAL ESTELLA 1 point win @ 7/1 Paddy Power I’LL BE THERE 1 point win @ 7/1 bet365   Ascot 1.51 A dozen speedsters go to post for the listed 5F Rous Stakes and with Friday’s rain hopefully getting into the Berkshire turf I’m looking for mudlarks there this afternoon. Last year’s winner Tis Marvellous has claims though did run a bit flat when easy to back at Newbury last time out. John Ryan’s Manaccan has been pulled out twice in his career due to softening ground conditions so is over looked. Julie Camacho has her team in fine shape and her Ainsdale is one that will appreciate any easing of the ground. Andrew Balding’s Kings Lynn is another who won’t mind the conditions but a 7lb penalty may put paid to his chances. I’m going to take a chance on Ed Walker’s Came From The Dark who must have softish ground and was thought of by his shrewd handler at the start of the season as a possible group one horse. Things havn’t worked out for the grey though with two lack lustre efforts in the spring on fast ground and reappears here having had a wind surgery and with his trainer stating in this week’s Weekender that his recent work has been excellent and the operation has been a success. On the figures he only has 4lb to find with the top weighted here Acklam Express and at double figure odds is worth chancing with Danny Tudhope in the saddle for the first time.   CAME FROM THE DARK 1 point each way @ 16/1 bet365 1/5th 1234   Newmarket 2.06 A bumper field of 29 go to post for this 6F Tattersalls October Auction Stakes with many here easy to strike a line through. Current favourite is the Ed Walker trained Amichi who won a similar contest on the July course five weeks ago on only his third start. Form that has stood up with the third Eddies Boy winning a Group 3 at Chantilly since. He should go well but is hardly value at around the 3/1 mark for a horse that is officially (at these weights) rated a stone inferior to his stable mate Union Court. She’s the highest rated here but hasn’t won since bagging a brace of victories in May and June. Rod Millman has done well in these type of sales races in the past and saddles a couple with chances in the Neil Callan ridden Safari Dream and Trevor Whelan ridden Woolhampton. The former is the most interesting of the duo to me having won two nurseries this season at the minimum trip and steps up to 6F today. He’s progressive and in a race I don’t really have too strong an opinion on is worth a small each way bet with additional places.   SAFARI DREAM 1/2 point each way @ 10/1 1/5th 12345   Ascot 2.25 The Group 3 Cumberland Lodge Stakes is up next with just nine runners. William Haggas saddles his smart Hamish who looked likely to topple the smart Kyprios in the Irish St Leger last time until that game one battled on well. It was still a hell of an effort and he’ll be hard to beat today on easy ground that suits. Aidan O’Brien’s High Definition is actually the highest rated in the race but he’s become rather disappointing despite keeping good company all season. He’s not won since taking the Beresford Stakes at The Curragh a couple of years ago, some eleven runs ago and he’ll hopefully make the market for Hamish who is a confident selection despite his 3lb penalty.   HAMISH 3 points win @ 13/8 BetVictor   Newmarket 2.42 The feature race of the day is the Group 1 Sun Chariot Stakes run over a mile for fillies and mares and has attracted a field of nine this year. The race revolves around Jane Chapple-Hyam’s flag bearer Saffron Beach who won this event last year by three lengths. She’s gone from strength to strength this season winning at Ascot (Group 2) and Deauville (Group 1) before a slightly below par second to Pearls Galore at Leopardstown in the Group one Matron Stakes three weeks ago. She had Dermot Weld’s three year old Homeless Songs 2 1/2L behind that day and on two pound better terms can confirm the form even though Homeless Songs now sports a first time tongue tie. She’s probably better than that run but at around 11/4 I’m not going to pay to find out. The unexposed one is the John and Thady Gosden trained Laurel who takes a massive step up in class following wins at Newmarket on the July course from perpetual loser Mashaaer and a comfortable win on the all weather at Kempton. She looks highly promising but has yet to encounter give in the ground and on official ratings has 22lb to find with Saffron Beach who has to be the selection.   SAFFRON BEACH 3 points win @ 13/8 William Hill   Ascot 3.00 Fourteen go to post for the Group 3 Bengough Stakes run over 6F of the Berkshire track. Best in at the weights and the one I like is David Evans’ Rohann who is three from four at the track and has won on all types of ground so the weather can do what it likes! His latest 3rd in the Group 1 Betfred Sprint Cup at Haydock is a good piece of form (Flaming Rib 3/4L further back)and this drop in class looks ideal for this Andrea Atzeni ridden four year old. He may have most to fear from the smart handicappers Comanche Falls and Summerghand who were separated by just a length in the Ayr Gold Cup last time out with the former 7lb better off for the length beating and should turn the tables on his rival today. Easing of the ground would be against the super mare Gale Force Mayo, Ehraz, Tiber Flow and Diligent Harry and it’s all about Rohaan for me.   ROHAAN 2 points win @ 7/2 Paddy Power   Redcar 3.21 A field of seventeen assemble for the William Hill Two Year Old Trophy, a listed contest run over 6F for two year olds. Cold Case comes here on the back of a good win at Doncaster in their sales race ( Holguin 3rd and looks held) and holds every chance today for trainer Kevin Ryan and jockey Clifford Lee. Also on the short list has to be Richard Fahey’s Barefoot Angel who was a Group 3 winner at Ayr last time. The best in at these weights today is the Michael Bell trained Maylandsea and it would be no shock were she to run well here off of her allotted weight. I’ll stick with Barefoot Angel if she can cope with the likely softish ground (she was a 6L runner up to the smart Swingalong on her debut on good to soft) and she looks good each way value.   BAREFOOT ANGEL 1 point each way @ 6/1 bet365 1/5th 1234   Ascot 3.36 The Peroni Nastro Azzurro Challenge Cup is a class 2 handicap run over the straight 7F and feature eighteen handicappers. On similar ground Fresh beat Silent Film and River Nymph over course and distance in a similar handicap a month ago by a neck and a short head challenging out wide in the middle of the course and is only a pound worse off with that pair. He’s drawn near to the stand side this time and will need luck in running from there though should be thereabouts. The third that day, Clive Cox’s River Nymph won last year’s Victoria Cup on soft ground over course and distance and is now just 2lb higher. He must have the mud and has to be part of the staking plan under Adam Kirby. James Horton’s Asjad did us a favour at Doncaster on his favoured soft ground three weeks ago and a 3lb rise may not be enough to stop him taking a hand in the finish. Softening of the ground may not be in the favour of Blue For You whilst Safe Voyage will love and cut and has fallen to a very nice mark. River Nymph for me but a small ew saver on Asjad as well.   RIVER NYMPH 1 1/2 points each way 8/1 bet365 1/5th 12345 ASJAD 1/2 point each way @ 16/1 Paddy Power 1/5th 12345    

A very interesting afternoons racing with four very hard class 2 handicaps to get our teeth into. On the ground front there is the possibility of a light shower at both Ascot and Haydock but not enough to change the ground conditions which are both on the fast side. Good luck today and here’s my thoughts.   Haydock 1.15 Only six go to post for the one mile listed Ascendant Stakes for two year olds. We have a very warm favourite here in the Charlie Appleby trained, William Buick ridden Naval Power who despite a 3lb penalty for his easy Ascot victory six weeks ago will be hard to beat. He steps up to a mile here and that should be well within the compass of this son of Teofilo who is entered in plenty of the end of the season two year old group ones. Tom Clover’s Seeking Gold is held in some regard by the rookie trainer and can chase him home although it’s worth keeping an eye on Roger Teal’s Dancing Magic who’s Newbury second to the promising Tarjeeh has been franked by the subsequent successes of the 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th, 8th and 11th. It’s not a betting race for me although if forced to play I would probably go with Dancing Magic without the favourite.   Haydock 1.45 A small but select field of eight assemble for the group 3 Superior Mile Stakes. A warm favourite is the John and Thady Gosden trained, Her Majesty owned Reach For The Moon who to my eyes looks extremely short for a horse that has little in hands of his rivals and flopped last time out at Royal Ascot when a well backed odds on favourite. He also sports a first time visor today and I can let him win at around 11/8. Only a pound behind him on official ratings is the Roger Varian trained Bayside Boy who wears blinkers for the first time here. 7th in the St James Palace at Royal Ascot he too was a bit disappointing when backed into favouritism when only 4th of 7 in the group 3 Bonhams Thoroughbred Stakes at Goodwood. Kevin Ryan’s Triple Time hasn’t been seen since winning at this meeting a year ago and this is surely a big ask after that type of break. The Brigadier’s pin has fallen on Charlie Hill’s Dark Shift who comes here in excellent form having won four of his last six starts including the Royal Hunt Cup at Ascot in June. He may not have been suited when dropping to 7F last time when running a highly credible 3rd in the valuable International Handicap to Fresh under a welter weight and can bounce back to winning form here with question marks over a few of these.   DARK SHIFT 1 point each way @ 6/1 bet365   Kempton 2.05 Eight runners go to post for the group three September stakes run over 12F which features a warm favourite in the William Haggas trained Dubai Honour who is officially the best in here. He’s yet to race on the all weather mind and as we had an odds on chance in Hukum turned over in this race last year I’m happy enough to take on the favourite here. John and Thady Gosden’s Mostahdaf flopped badly last time and has been given 58 days off to get over that run. He’s two from two on the all weather including winning here and despite a 3lb penalty appeals as the one to be with with Dane O’Neill doing the steering.   MOSTADHAF 1 point win @ 7/2 BetVictor   Haydock 2.20 A wide open sixteen runner three year old 1m 6F class two handicap will take some unravelling. There’s plenty in with chances including the William Haggas duo Tamilla who’s chasing a hat trick and Post Impressionist who’s stepping markedly up in trip. There’s little between Michael Bell’s Adjuvant and Charlie Hills’ Inverness on their 3rd and 4th placings in the Melrose Handicap at York last month. The unexposed Open Champion trained by the in form Roger Varian (double on Thursday) is making his handicap debut stepping up in trip although it must be said that his latest win hasn’t worked out that well. A case can be made for others in the race but I’ll take a chance on the Ralph Beckett trained Speycaster who sports first time blinkers here. The gelded son of Highland Reel is only having his seventh career start and maybe open to further improvement. His latest effort when 4th of 14 over course and distance in July can surely be marked up as he slipped leaving the starting gate and ran onto finish only 4 1/2L behind the winner Nathanael Greene. The 2nd and 5th have both won since to frank the form and I can see him running well although I do have slight reservations that he may prefer easier ground (it was soft last time) but hope that the ground doesn’t ride too fast. Hollie Doyle rides.   SPEYCASTER 1 point each way @ 10/1 William Hill 1/5th 12345   Haydock 2.55 Another big field of fifteen go to post for the Old Borough Cup, a class 2 handicap run over 1m. With the defection of impressive York winner Soulcombe who would of been a confident selection the race looks open. There’s plenty of decent handicappers here including last years winner Island Brave who’s back to defend his title off of a 3lb lower mark and shouldn’t be totally ruled out. The horse I like is the top weight Euchen Glen who has been unlucky on both his last two starts at Goodwood and in the Ebor last time when he was dropped right out by Paul Mulrennan and ran on to finish 7th although I felt he should of been a far bit closer to the winner Trawlerman. He’s 3lb higher here but can still run well each way.   EUCHAN GLEN 1 point each way @ 5/1 bet365 1/5 1234   Kempton 2.40 Yet another competitive class 2 handicap with a maximum field of fourteen going to post for the London Mile Series Final. Plenty with chances here none more so than the Saeed Bun Suroor trained First View who has excellent track form of 112. He had a near impossible task last time when drawn 22 of 22 in the John Smith’s Cup won by subsequent 4L group 3 winner Anmaat with the runner up and fourth also winning since. He did well that day to finish in seventh beaten just under four lengths and with first time cheek pieces (which his trainer has a good record with when using for the first time) and the booking of useful 5lb claimer Christian Howarth (who is the son of the assistant trainer at Bin Suroor’s incidentally) can run a big race and is the selection. There are numerous dangers as one would imagine including the Johnstone’s Dutch Decoy who’s in good form and William Haggas’s Morgan Fairy who’s on a retrieval mission having been turned over at odds on on his last two starts. But it’s all First View for me.   FIRST VIEW 1 1/2 points each way @ 11/2 bet365 1/5th 1234   Ascot 3.10 Another competitive class 2 handicap, this time over 7F and a decent sized field of 17 have declared. Favourite here is James Fanshawe’s Fresh who rides this track so well with form figures here of 2123491 and looks sure to be involved in the finish under Daniel Tudhope. George Boughey’s Inver Park won the Buckingham Palace Handicap at the Royal meeting and despite being 4lb higher has the assistance of 3lb apprentice Saffie Osbourne and should also be thereabouts. Kevin Frost’s Documenting did us a turn last time out at Newbury and has a good record in this race having won it in 2020 and finished runner up last year. He’s a pound higher and a year older today but shouldn’t be ruled out. The horse I like though is Clive Cox’s Aratus who’s been unlucky with the draw on his last two starts finishing ahead of his nine strong group last time on the stands side when 6th beaten 3L by Fresh and can re-oppose now on 6lb better terms and hopefully a better draw. He’s berthed in stall 1 so hopefully can tuck in and challenge down the centre with the starting stalls on the stands side today. He’s the main play although I can’t resist a cliff horse for me which is Saeed Bin Suroor’s Shining Blue who may appreciate dropping back in trip to 7F today and is drawn on the stands side thus giving us one on each side.   ARATUS 1 1/2 points each way @ 15/2 bet365 1/5th 12345 SHIINING BLUE 1/2 point each way @ 12/1 Betfred 1/5th 12345   Haydock 3.30 The days feature race is up next - the Betfair Sprint Cup has attracted a decent maximum field of seventeen. There are many form lines involving the big sprints from this summer here and the one horse that I keep coming back to is the Owen Burrows trained Minzaal. A group 3 winner at Newbury in July came three weeks prior to his excellent 3/4L runner up to subsequent Nunthorpe winner Highfield Princess in the 6 1/2F Prix Maurice de Gheest at Deauville with the re-appearing Rohaan, Naval Crown and Harry Three behind and on that run seemingly held today. Last years winner Emaraaty Ana bounced back to form when 3rd in the Nunthorpe last time although on a line through the winner may have a bit to find with the selection. Kinross is interesting having won well at York last time but is dropping in trip today. Competitive enough but for me Minzaal has the best form and should run a big race and can be backed each way with the extra places.   MINZAAL 2 points each way @ 4/1 bet365 1/5th 12345   Ascot 3.45 Eleven go down to the post for this class 2 three year old handicap where Charlie Appleby saddles 4 of the 11 runners. All four of the runners has a chance of sorts with possibly First Ruler who will be ridden by Ryan Moore the pick of the quartet having scraped home over 10F at the Berkshire track last time. The step up to 1m 4F should suit the son of Dubawi and he can be competitive although fellow stable mates Blue Trail and Al Nafir shouldn’t be dismissed under Neil Callan and Harry Davies respectively. William Haggas saddles La Yakel in his first handicap and is an interesting runner and it’s hard to totally rule out any of these bar possibly the total rag Sandstorm so to small stakes I’ll play First Ruler each way.   FIRST RULER 1 point each way @ 4/1 William Hill 1/5th 123  

My thread "Short Priced Favs" runs from November to the end of the Cheltenham Festival, as I prefer NH Racing.  I think the best horses are trained for the Cheltenham Festival and the main protagonists are usually on the scene around November and they are always out to win. I know you will not get one of them running everyday but if not there will almost always be an odds on shot running. I just had a look at the NH racing from 19th November 2021 to 18th March 2022 to see how betting on short priced favourites faired out. 
The selections were the shortest odds favourite (SP Forecast) in a NH race in UK/Ireland. 
Now as we have no control on the market the selection may not open up as odds on when the betting markets are produced.
For the test there were 112 selections. There were 78 winners to give a strike rate of 69.64%. Ten of the winners returned odds of Evens or higher. 45 of the winners were at odds 1/2 or worse, while 10 of those were odds of 1/5 or smaller. The other 23 winners were between the odds of 8\15 and evens.
On a £10 single stake (with BOG) these would have produced a return on Investment of 7.82%.
The highest priced winner was Kansas City Chief @ 5\2, who was the shortest priced favourite the night before at 15\8.
Hope this is helpful some way @MCLARKE. 

Won at 1/50 SP so value after all !

A bit of an improvement with 7 winners from the last 9 selections with a LSP of 0.56 at SP but more importantly 1.80 at BOG.
Overall 8 winners from 14 selections with LSP of -3.32 at SP (-24% ROI) and -1.75 at BOG (-13% ROI).
There should have been 2 selections today but I missed the early price so haven't included them. They both won (5/6 into 4/7 and  8/13 into 2/11). 
There is a selection tomorrow, Night Battle at 1/14. However it is available at 1/8 elsewhere so it does not seem logical to take the 1/14.

Leeds vs Chelsea
The first preview for the Premier League games on Sunday that I'm looking at is the clash between Leeds and Chelsea in a 2pm BST start from Elland Road. Both teams are unbeaten after their first two league games so there is a chance to extend that undefeated run here. Will we see the home team spring a shock result or will the away side continue their decent away form under Thomas Tuchel?
Leeds were a team I thought might struggle this season under Jesse Marsch but the American head coach has enjoyed an encouraging start to the season. A 2-1 win at home to Wolves in their opening league game was followed up by a chaotic 2-2 draw away to Southampton. The Whites will have been disappointed to give away a two goal in lead in that second game having come from behind to win in their first match. Leeds have only managed to keep 5 clean sheets in their last 41 Premier League games. It's ominous reading that Leeds also lost each of their 12 league games played against teams that finished in the top six last season. Rodrigo could be a shout for anytime scorer as he looks to become just the 4th player in Leeds history to score in each of their first 3 top flight appearances for the club after Arthur Hydes (1933/34), Mick Jones (1968/69), and Patrick Bamford (2020/21).
Chelsea have looked in solid form so far this season with a narrow 1-0 win away to Everton and then the dramatic 2-2 draw at home to Tottenham last weekend. It can be argued that the Blues probably haven't quite hit their stride yet but they remain unbeaten from their first two league games including playing a fellow Champions League qualification rival. Thomas Tuchel's side could keep clean sheets in their first two away league games of a season for the first time since 2005/06 when Jose Mourinho was manager. It's interesting to see that the last 9 goals scored by Chelsea have each been scored by different players showing their goal scoring threat across the pitch. Another interesting stat is that Raheem Sterling has finished on the winning team in 11 of the 12 away league matches where he scored.
There's no doubt that Chelsea come into this game as firm favourites and that statistic isn't made any better for Leeds fans by the fact that Leeds are without a win in the last 7 Premier League meetings. Their last victory against Chelsea in the league came at Elland Road in a 2-0 win back in 2002. These two teams were in completely different places back then! I think Chelsea should pull off a business-like win. Is the clean sheet on? I would always fancy backing that with Tuchel in charge for a Chelsea away game.
Chelsea to Win to Nil @ 2.90 with BetVictor
Anytime Scorer: Raheem Sterling @ 3.10 with SportNation
 

Brilliant Ebor, Brig. Fantastic insight and a terrific profit. Thanks for your hard work and well done!  Whatever the outcomes you always give us an interesting read and I always look forward to your analysis.

Brilliant Ebor, Brig. Fantastic insight and a terrific profit. Thanks for your hard work and well done!  Whatever the outcomes you always give us an interesting read and I always look forward to your analysis.

Brilliant Ebor, Brig. Fantastic insight and a terrific profit. Thanks for your hard work and well done!  Whatever the outcomes you always give us an interesting read and I always look forward to your analysis.

Brilliant Ebor, Brig. Fantastic insight and a terrific profit. Thanks for your hard work and well done!  Whatever the outcomes you always give us an interesting read and I always look forward to your analysis.

10/1 & 7/2 winners today plus 6/1 and 14/1 places in Ebor. A profit of 6.67 points on day making it a profit at the Ebor meeting 0f 39.58 points. Have a great weekend everyone and hope you've all found a winner or two this week.

York 1.50 A field of eight go to post for the 1m 177 yards group 3 Strensall Stakes with a split of four three year olds and four older horses. Favourite and for me the most likely winner is the John and Thady Gosden trained Mighty Ulysses who followed up an excellent 5th beaten under a length in the group one St James Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot by winning a listed contest at Newmarket’s July course from Owen Burrows Alflaila who re-opposes here on identical terms. The latter has come on from that effort to win a listed contest at Pontefract and is maybe the one to chase Frankie Dettori’s mount home. Of the older horses William Haggas’s Bashkirova has to carry a 3lb penalty with Cadillac maybe the best of the older brigade but this is all about the Gosden - Dettori runner Mighty Ulysses.   MIGHTY ULYSSES 2 points win @ 6/4 William Hill   Sandown 2.05 Eleven go to post for the one mile group 3 Atalanta Stakes for fillies and mares. Three of the twelve are three year olds and that’s where I’m looking for the winner. John and Thady Gosden saddle the likely favourite following the eleventh hour defection of the highly promising Laurel who would of been the selection here. In her absence Grande Dame who looked good winning a listed contest over course and distance 7 weeks ago holds every chance. The best of the older brigade may be Kevin Ryan’s Fonteyn who’s form ties in with Grande Dame.   GRANDE DAME 2 points win @ 2/1 bet365   York 2.25 A smaller than usual turnout for the Melrose Handicap run over the Ebor trip of 1m 5F 188 yards for three year olds only. It has a very open looks about it with several holding chances. Charlie Hill’s Inverness and William Haggas’s Soulcombe were third and fourth respectively in a decent 12F handicap at Goodwood last time where a head split the pair. The latter was a real eye catcher and I expect him to turn the tables on Inverness although why there is such a big price discrepancy between the pair is beyond me. Charlie Appleby’s top weight Wild Crusade should be suited by this longer trip and was put up 9lb for his three runner handicap victory at Ascot with the runner up winning a decent race since to boost the form. Appleby also saddles handicap debutant Al Nafir with Frankie Dettori in the saddle stepping up half a mile. Andrew Balding has won this contest the last two years and saddles Soul Stopper who’s chasing a hat trick of victories and despite a 8lb rise for his latest win at Chester is not out of this. A tough race but I’ll go for Wild Crusade each way with the extra places to give Appleby and Buick a welcome winner.   WILD CRUSADE 1 point each way 6/1 bet365 1/5th 1234   Sandown 2.40 Only seven have declared for this group 3 Solario Stakes run over 7F for two year olds. All seven have a chance of sorts with Peter Chapple-Hyams’s Defence Of Fort impressing when winning nicely on his debut at Ascot six weeks ago (2nd and 3rd beaten since though 4th won nursery here on Thursday). William Haggas’s Desert Hero also looked smart when winning at Haydock 51 days ago but that was on soft ground so he’ll be facing a totally different terrain today. I was impressed by Andrew Balding’s The Foxes when he won at Goodwood and his trainer spoke highly of him afterwards. He looks a bit overpriced. Alice Haynes’ Lady Bullet hasn’t been seen since finishing 6th in the Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot and is yet another with a chance whilst the Godolphin runner Silver Knott looked good when landing the odds at Kempton earlier this month with his debut 4th to Chaldean when an 11/10 favourite looking even better now following that one’s win in the Acomb earlier this week. He’s the selection in a tough heat.   SILVER KNOTT 2 points win @ 7/2 bet365   York 3.00 A field of ten go to post for the group 2 City Of York Stakes run over 7F and this year has a wide open look about it. The key piece of form to look at for this race is the Lennox Stakes from Goodwood 25 days ago, Andrew Balding’s Sandrine came late to beat Kinross a neck on the line with Pogo (disappointed since) a further short head away in third and William Haggas’s Sacred a further one and a half lengths back in fifth. Sandrine is 3lb worse off with the trio that finished close up behind her that day and maybe Kinross will come out best of that group although he’s a horse that has always preferred to get his toe in so could do with some rain. Hugo Palmer’s Brad The Brief is actually the highest rated of the the ten and shouldn’t be discounted whilst it’s the David Evan’s trained Rohaan that I’ll be playing here. He’s been consistent on his last three starts in top class sprints winning the Wokingham at Ascot off of top weight for the second year in a row, a decent 4th (beaten 1 3/4L) to Minzaal in a group 3 at Newbury and an excellent running on 4th (beaten a length) in the Prix Maurice de Gheest at Deauville. The question with him is whether he will be as effective at 7F as he is at 6F but the latter contest was 6 1/2F and he was finishing strongly so I’ll take a chance that Adam Kirby can time it and he’s the selection.   ROHAAN 1 point each way @ 7/1 bet365 1/5th 123   York 3.35 A maximum field of twenty two assemble for the meeting’s feature handicap - the Sky Bet Ebor which is worth a guaranteed half a million pounds. Run over just short of 1m 6F you need to be a group horse to win it. My ante post synopsis from when the weights came can be seen here -Both my selections then have made the race but unfortunately both have been given shocking draws - Get Shirty in stall 24 and Okita Soushi in stall 22. I do expect both to run well but you need everything in your favour and that won’t help although Muntahaa did win from stall 21 in 2018 so maybe not all’s lost. As you would expect many have chances and I can’t resist small each way wagers (with enhanced places) on Ian William’s Alfred Boucher who crept into the race having won comfortably here on Wednesday and if none the worse can run well under a 4lb penalty and Earl Of Tyrone for the Irish trainer Paddy Twomey who’s on a four timer and appears to have been laid out for this. Both are drawn next to each other in stalls 8 and 9. There’s plenty of others with decent chances including the William Haggas pair Candleford and Gaasse with Tom Marquand seemingly surprisingly picking the former. Irish trainers have won two of the last three renewals and the most unexposed in the field is Ger Lyons’ Licence who can also run well from a wide draw.   Advised ante-post : GET SHIRTY 1 point each way @ 16/1 1/4 1/4 1234 OKITA SOUSHI 1 point each way @ 18/1 1/4 1234   EARL OF TYRONE 1 point each way @ 6/1 bet365 1/5th 123456 ALFRED BOUCHER 1 point each way @ 14/1 bet365 123456   York 4.10 A very competitive maximum field of twenty go to post for this 6F heritage handicap. Plenty of these ran in the Stewards Cup at Goodwood three weeks ago which was won by Michael Dods’ Comanche Falls (up 6lb today) by a short head from Archie Watson’s Tabdeed (up 5lb) with the well backed Edward Bethell trained Regional (up 3lb) 1 1/2L back in third. Swedish raider Good Eye was a neck away in 4th though was beaten here earlier in the week with Tinto 5th, Summerghand (down 3lb) 9th and Mr Magyu (down 2lb) in 10th. I wouldn’t be surprised if Summerghand came out the best of those as he’s had little luck this season including when badly drawn in the Great St Wilfrid since (won his small group of 4 on the far side when all the action was on the near side). A tough handicap where I’ll take Regional and Summerghand against the field to small stakes each way with enhanced places.   SUMMERGHAND 1 point each way @ 10/1 bet365 1/5th 123456 REGIONAL 1 point each way @ 9/1 bet365 1/5th 123456  

A good day with a 10/1 and 5/1 winner from just four races (plus an 11/1 place). Hope everyone's found a winner or two this afternoon. Saturdays selections were uploaded at 9am this morning.

Well done to regular contributor @LEE-GRAYS who only selected 200/1 winner Milldean Felix in yesterday naps table - superb stuff ?? 

‘i will be stunned if Alpinista gets beat in this’.
Superb analysis and your confidence assured my bet. I hope you got the 9/4. Thanks and well done Zilzalian. 
Yalwen 
 
 

A profit of 5.95 points today with the one good winner at 9/2 and a 10/1 & 11/2 places.

‘i will be stunned if Alpinista gets beat in this’.
Superb analysis and your confidence assured my bet. I hope you got the 9/4. Thanks and well done Zilzalian. 
Yalwen 
 
 

‘i will be stunned if Alpinista gets beat in this’.
Superb analysis and your confidence assured my bet. I hope you got the 9/4. Thanks and well done Zilzalian. 
Yalwen 
 
 

‘i will be stunned if Alpinista gets beat in this’.
Superb analysis and your confidence assured my bet. I hope you got the 9/4. Thanks and well done Zilzalian. 
Yalwen 
 
 

*Weather warning* There is the potential for York racecourse to get plenty of rain over the next 24 hours with a forecast that is very localised. My synopsis has been done on good ground so keep an eye on the forecast as obviously were the ground to turn soft it would change my thoughts.   York 1.50 York’s four day Ebor Festival kicks off with a fiendishly difficult 5F heritage handicap featuring a maximum field of twenty two. Course specialist’s Dakota Gold (five wins from ten starts here) and Copper Knight (5 from 16) both have claims especially the former who won this back in 2019 and arrives in decent recent form finishing runner up at Ripon on good to soft ground. Michael Dods’s eight year old has to be part of the staking plan. Bottom weight Dusky Lord sports first time blinkers following a good run at Goodwood last time and is another with a a chance along with Tracy Waggott’s Ghantanfar who’s recent 3rd here over 6F behind useful yardstick Gale Force Maya gives him a decent chance. Waggott won the Great St Wilfrid at Ripon on Saturday with her Intrinsic Bond so has her small team in good shape and he’s the other runner I want on my side in a wide open sprint handicap where stakes should be kept small.   DAKOTA GOLD 1 point each way @ 8/1 bet365 1/5th 123456 GHANTAFAR 1 point each way @ 14/1 Paddy Power 1/5th 123456   York 2.25 Nine two year olds go to post for the group 3 7F Acomb Stakes. Charlie Appleby saddles the likely favourite in Local Dynasty who impressed on his debut in a Newmarket maiden when scooting clear of his field winning by 3 1/2L. None of the defeated horses have run since so it’s hard to know what he’s beaten unlike Andrew Balding’s Chaldean who improved for his promising debut run to win a novice stakes contest at Newbury that has worked out so well with the runner up, third and fourth all winning since. Arguably the form horse is the Jane Chapple-Hyam trained Mill Stream who followed up his Doncaster maiden debut win by going down by half a length to Charlie Appleby’s Noble Style at Newmarket 19 days ago. He should run well especially now stepping up in trip. At the current prices though I want to be with Chaldean who will be ridden today by Ryan Moore for the Juddmonte operation and looks cracking each way value. None of the nine runners have run on anything away from fast ground so we’re the ground to change it would make it a no play race.   CHALDEAN 1 points each way @ 7/1 BetVictor 1/5th 123   York 3.00 Only six three year old colts have declared for the group two 1m 4F Great Voltigeur Stakes but it’s an intriguing contest none the less with Charlie Appleby saddling a brace of smart sorts in Secret State who’s stepping out of handicaps having won decent races at Royal Ascot and Goodwood, the pick of William Buick and James Doyle’s mount Walk Of Stars who by all accounts has been burning up the gallops at Moultons Paddocks alongside the year older Yibir who actually won this contest last year. Aiden O’Brien has settled with Aikhal of his four runners at the five day stage. He was very impressive last time out and is stepping up to 12F for the first time today. James Ferguson’s stable star Deauville Legend is another with decent claims who was runner up in the Gordon Stakes to the useful New London giving him 3lb. If there was a downpour and the ground turned bad then that would be in the favour of James Ferguson’s other runner here El Bodegon. A tough call but I’m just coming down on the side of Secret State who’s done very little wrong this season and has also won on soft ground at Chester when winning his maiden so won’t mind if the ground did change.   SECRET STATE 2 points win @ 2/1 William Hill   York 3.35 A small but select field of seven go to post for the group one 1m 2F 56 yard Juddmonte International Stakes which features the unbeaten superstar Baaeed who has won all nine of his starts all at a mile and steps up in trip today. He’s hard to oppose although he does have to prove that he stays this new trip. He’s won on good to firm and good to soft so unless the ground changed dramatically will handle the under foot conditions although obviously if the rain did get in then that would make it more of a test of stamina. I’m happy to watch at the likely odds although I am tempted in having a small bet on Mishriff who bolted up in this contest last year winning by 6L from the re-opposing Alenquer. An unlucky loser of the Eclipse at Sandown this season when not getting the splits at the right time he may have lost his race in the King George when slowly away at the gates. Official ratings only have him 4lb behind Baaeed and he’s worth a small interest. The only three year old in the field is the Charlie Appleby trained Native Trial, runner up in the 2000 guineas prior to winning the Irish version. He has a bit to find with Mishriff on Eclipse form although not a lot. An intriguing contest which Baaeed could run away with it but I can’t resist a small bet on John and Thady Gosden’s Mishriff.   MISHRIFF 1 point win @ 4/1 bet365   York 4.10 Fifteen go to post here for this two mile class 2 Heritage handicap which has quite an open look about it. Current favourite is recent Goodwood Festival winner Master Miliner who is up 5lb for that victory. He’s two from three at this track and should be competitive for dual purpose trainer Emma Lavelle. It is that Goodwood race though that I feel today’s winner may well come from with Hugo Palmer’s Zoffee the one I like. He may well of not stayed that day with the 2m 4F trip drawing out his stamina. In fact at the two mile stage nothing was going better than Zoffee and he is now 5lb better off with Master Miliner. He has form over hurdles with give in the ground so shouldn’t be too inconvenienced were the ground to change and he looks excellent value with Ben Curtis doing the steering. The Charlie and Mark Johnstone trained Soapy Stevens comes here in good form and is another with a good chance but it’s all about Zoffee for me.   ZOFFEE 2 points each way @ 17/2 William Hill 1/5th 12345

You regularly dish out very unpleasant personal comments against me, even in your above post, yet you cannot seem to take any kind of criticism yourself.  Stop being a cry baby and grow up

I wasn't going to say anything but you keep pushing so I will.
I think that you were very lucky for Michael @MCLARKE to even count your selection as being a winner.  The rules state that " Any race can be selected as long as it is covered by the Racing Post / ATR. " .  This being so Michael @MCLARKE has IMO breached the rules by allowing it as a winner.  The rules were made so as to be practical for administrators to do their job without traipsing around everywhere to find all racing results all around the world.  Unless and until the rules are changed I urge you to only post up selections in the Nap competition that are within the rules.  You can always post up a juicy entry under "Racing Chat" or the £20 challenge if you wish to help members find a winner.
Please desist in flouting the rules; it is not fair on all members that follow them