Yalwen

Could say £50, could say £5000, obviously we have no idea if these bets are being placed in reality or, if so, what the actual stake is. My advice to anyone would be don't follow any of the selections (yet, at least) and certainly don't follow with that sort of liability. No offense, same true of unproven tips from any new poster.
You don't need to tell us that on here, you're into egg-sucking Grandma territory.
My question is, are you going to keep a running record of the performance of these bets? Winning and losing lays and the profit/loss? If not, I can't see the point of a dedicated thread, you might as well just post in the daily thread where everyone else posts their bets for the day. Laying or backing it's just an opinion on the race and a dedicated thread serves no purpose unless the returns are being tracked (especially given the claim in the thread title).

It’s just frustrating that when you are spending they don’t Seem concerned where your money is coming from and who you are. However, when you withdraw they want to know your shoe size. 😂. 

A bit belated but a review of the Aintree stats
I am going to try a different approach for Aintree and limit my data to those horses at the top of the market. I will concentrate on those horses that are in the top 4 in the forecast betting.
This is a profitable approach in it's own right with 122 wins from 737 runners and a level stakes profit of 182 points at BSP. The AE is 1.10. It has also shown a profit every single year of my 9 year analysis. In addition it has also found the winner of the Grand National in 5 of the last 8 years.  Once again this has resulted in a profit, with 17 wins from 94 runners and a LSP of 8 points. It again included the GN winner Corach Rambler. It also won me £993 from a £3 lucky 15 bet on GN day.
Stick to the class 1 races. Class 2 races have shown a 21 point loss with an AE of 0.81. The class 2 races again showed a loss, 1 win from 10 runs and a LSP loss of 2 points.
Avoid those races at the minimum distance of 2 miles. These have resulted in a loss of 24 points with an AE of 0.79. Again it would have been wise to avoid these with 3 wins from 19 runs and a loss of 4 points.
 
Areas of potential increased profitability include.
Odds last time between 2/1 and 50/1. 104 wins from 589 runs, profit 222 points, AE 1.20. This time 12 wins from 68 runs and a profit of 8 points.
Horse ridden by a different jockey than last time. 49 wins from 260 runs, profit 111 points, AE 1.38. I did struggle to see the logic of this and indeed this time it did not work out with 4 wins from 31 runs and a loss of 3 points.
Distance of race different to last time (more or less than 1 furlong). 54 wins from  276 runs, profit 191 points, AE 1.40. This worked out well with 9 wins from 35 runs and a profit of 25 points.
Days since last win greater than 75. 60 wins from 346 runs, profit 153 points, AE 1.29. Not so good with 7 wins from 50 runs and a loss of 2 points.
Consistency in the last 2 years factor between 0.54 and 0.38. 49 wins from 222 runs, profit 136 points, AE 1.53. 5 from 32, profit 6 points.
 
Whilst the strike rate for handicaps is lower the AE is better at 1.18. There have been 29 wins from 267 runs and a profit of 108 points. Another good return with 5 wins from 37 runs and a profit of 8 points.
Stick to distances of 2 miles 4 furlongs and above. 25 wins from 191 runs, profit 134 points, AE 1.49. 4 from 26, profit 9 points.
Avoid horses going down in class (based on value of the race). 24 wins from 175 races, profit 146 points, AE 1.61. 2 from 22, loss 3 points.
Bigger fields show the best results. Stick to races with at least 17 runners. 25 wins from 206 runners, profit 142 points, AE 1.45. 3 from 27, loss 1 point.
Weight carried last time between 10st 8lbs and 11st 4 lbs. 21 wins from 127 runs, profit 158 points, AE 1.74. 2 from 13, profit 2 points.
 
The record for grade 1 races is 67 wins from 313 runs with a profit of 64 points and an AE of 1.09. 10 wins from 45 runs and a loss of 5 points although the AE was 1.11 which indicates that a lot of the shorter price horses won and that you would have made a profit if you were betting proportional stakes. In fact 6 out of 11 favourites won.
Horses should be running with a similar OR to the last run, no more than 3lbs higher or 2lbs lower. 51 wins from 184 runs, profit 96 points, AE 1.32. A poor return, 5 wins from 26 runs and a loss of 12 points.
Avoid horses that were 1st last time. 49 wins from 216 runs, profit 98 points, AE 1.25. Another disappointing result, 7 from 31 with a loss of 10 points.
OR between 145 and 153. 29 wins from 109 runs, profit 51 points, AE 1.46. 3 from 13 , profit 3 points.
 
Overall a good set of results, if you had backed every selection you would have had 126 wins from 709 bets and a profit of 55 points. 
The grade 1 selections were disappointing, again this may show the problem of small data sizes. 
If you had stuck with the overall statistics then you would have had 84 wins from 469 bets and a profit of 64 points, a very respectable ROI of 14% and a reasonable strike rate of 18%.
Let's hope the overall stats hold good for next year !

Reading this thread I agree with @MCLARKE and @harry_rag that you are not suited to gambling on anything let alone horse racing In fact i doubt your sincerity to be honest you have come on here with a victim mentality and sounds to me like you are looking more for sympathy than anything else because if you have been gambling and losing as you say then you are fully aware of how difficult it is to make a profit. Not one person on this site can post winners to the degree that you can make money. Anything i post on here is a small sample of what i do, if i was to post everything yes you would make money simply by copying it faithfully but there is not a hope in hell that i will spend so much time and effort just posting for the sake of posting everything i do, part of which are sometimes last minute decisions based on how a particular day/meeting is going EG ground changes, value, the appearance of draw bias etc. So my advice is to put everything you have planned to bet with in a jar and save it up for a month that way you will always break even. I know this is not what you want to hear but that's my best shot at advising you given the evidence of this thread..

But if you back any other horse the % of times the favourite or another horse wins will be even higher. @MCLARKE was simply suggesting to you (as someone who acknowledges that they haven't got much of an idea how to pick a horse) the best way to optimise your return from the PP offer. (The favourite is likely to either win or trigger the money back offer more than any other selection that you might select at random.)
 
No, there aren't. Put a lot of hard work and study in for a long time to improve your ability to identify horses that are on offer at a reasonable price as opposed to a poor one. The very best punters only make a relatively small profit as a % of turnover and still encounter losing runs. 3 of them could look at the same race and all come up with a different selection. Even then they won't always find the winner.
On the evidence of your posts you seem to have an unrealistic expectation of there being some sort of easy route to constant profit. My inclination is to suggest that betting isn't for you and you'd probably be better looking for another hobby. You're not enjoying it while you're losing (a reality that the vast majority of recreational punters have to accept) and seem to be aspiring to a quick fix that is unlikely to be attainable.

An update on the results
On the face of it these proved very profitable. If you had backed every selection then you would have enjoyed a very healthy BSP profit of 992 points ! However the results were influenced by the win of Valiant Force at a BSP of 488. This horse appeared in 2 of the statistics. However even excluding this the stats would have made an overall profit. The overall stats performed better than the stats for for non-handicaps and handicaps (the handicaps made a loss), perhap this shows the danger of using small data sizes. 
Hopefully the stats at Goodwood will point us to a few winners but I can't promise a profit of nearly a thousand points !
Some statistics that might help pick a few profitable winners include:
1.       Horses that last ran at Newmarket have recorded 22 wins from 126 races with a profit of 155 points. 3 from 41, LSP 119
2.       Horses that are having their 1st or 2nd run of the season have recorded 152 wins from 986 runs with a profit of 103 points. 25 from 395, LSP 92
3.       Horses that last ran 37 to 47 days ago have recorded 35 wins from 191 runs with a profit of 73 points. 5 from 102, LSP -17
4.       Horses that last ran in a group race have recorded 63 wins from 301 runs with a profit of 61 points. 12 from 124, LSP 476
5.       Horses that last ran at Epsom have recorded 16 wins from 60 races with a profit of 41 points. 2 from 41, LSP -28
 
Key statistics related to the non-handicap races include:
1.       Horses that finished outside the top 4 last time have recorded 41 wins from 519 runs with a profit of 133 points. 4 from 65, LSP 477
2.       The best forecast odds range is 3/1 to 11/2 with 58 wins from 291 runs and a profit of 50 points. 1 from 29, LSP -25
3.       Horses bred in the UK have a good record with 71 wins from 908 runs and a profit of 221 points. 6 from 113, LSP -62
4.       In large fields low draws have the best record with 11 wins from 109 runs and a profit of 54 points. 
5.       1st and 2nd favourites have recorded 103 wins from 428 runs with a profit of 17 points. 7 from 52, LSP -32
 
Key statistics related to the handicap races include:
1.       Forecast favourites have a good record with 18 wins from 85 races and a profit of 21 points. 2 from 12, LSP -2
2.       Horses that last ran more than 73 days ago have recorded 16 wins from 272 runs with a profit of 163 points. 0 from 27, LSP -27
3.       Horses in the weight range 9st 1lbs to 9st 3lbs have recorded 30 wins from 432 runs with a profit of 98 points. 3 from 36, LSP 9
4.       Horses ranked 6th to 15th in the betting forecast have recorded 36 wins from 867 runs with a profit of 167 points. 6 from 128, LSP 54
5.       Horses with forecast odds of 12/1 to 14/1 have recorded 23 wins from 340 runs with a profit of 117 points. 0 from 42, LSP -42

Thanks and well done to all who took part. How you find and name some of those winners is beyond me! 
And, of course, thanks to MCLARKE whose meticulous record keeping makes it all so easy to follow. 

Thanks and well done to all who took part. How you find and name some of those winners is beyond me! 
And, of course, thanks to MCLARKE whose meticulous record keeping makes it all so easy to follow. 

Thanks and well done to all who took part. How you find and name some of those winners is beyond me! 
And, of course, thanks to MCLARKE whose meticulous record keeping makes it all so easy to follow. 

Many thanks to @mclarke for running this; it must be very difficult. 
Well done to all the winners!

Well done @roy keane for winning and others in the money. Yet another big thank you to @MCLARKE for all his hard work in running yet another great comp. 

Day 5 preview 
 

2.35
A competitive renewal with no standout filly in the 28 strong field. Karl Burke’s Beautiful Diamond looked smart when winning at Nottingham earlier this month and should be competitive along with the Richard Fahey trained Midnight Affair who did it well in the Hilary Needler last time. Others with chances include the Marygate winner Got To Love A Grey and Born To Rock. Karl Burke won this with Dramatised and can follow up with his Twilight Son grey Beautiful Diamond.   BEAUTIFUL DIAMOND 1 point win @ 9/2 bet365   3.05   A wide open renewal of the Kensington Palace Fillies Handicap with plenty holding chances. The lightly raced Joseph O’Brien runner Yerwanthere is making her handicap debut off of what looks to be a fair mark. The jockey booking of James McDonald is an interesting one. To small each way stakes that’ll do for me.   YERWANTHERE 1/2  point each way @15/2 bet365 1/5th 123456   3.40   The Duke Of Cambridge Stakes can go the way of the Ralph Beckett trained Prosperous Voyage with Frankie Dettori riding for his pal Andrew Rosen. He won a tad cosily at Epsom and has a solid chance with Jumbly looking the danger.   PROSPEROUS VOYAGE 2 points win @ 5/2 Coral   4.20   A real cracker of a race and one of the best of the week despite its small field. With only officially 2lb between six of the field. Luxembourg seems in a good place at present and with Ryan Moore on board a real bonus can fend off his old foe Bay Bridge with possibly Adayar his biggest danger. My Prospero will appreciate stepping up in trip after his fourth in the Lockinge and shouldn’t be quickly dismissed either. A tough call but it’s Luxembourg for me.   LUXEMBOURG 1 point win @ 9/4 bet365   5.00   As always a cavalry charge up the straight mile with the draw always a major factor. Recent years have suggested a high number are best but it’s not conclusive. Perotto is well handicapped and has his conditions so should run well along with Point Lynas who is the only horse in the race who is officially ahead of his mark (by 3lb). The pick though is Daniel & Clare Kubler’s Astro King who’s been placed in this last two years and was unlucky at York last time.   ASTRO KING 1 point each way @12/1 Coral 1/5th 123456 GHALY 1/2 point each way @ 10/1 bet365 1/5th 123456   5.35   Gregory has plenty going for him and with the trip likely to draw further improvement out of the John & Thady Gosden trained Golden Horn three year old he is a confident selection to win the Queens Vase.   GREGORY 2 points win @ 7/4 bet365   6.10   Aidan O’Brien has some juvenile talent in his stables this season and can take the Windsor Castle Stakes with his once raced Johannes Brahms. He went off odds on on his debut when winning at Naas and the word is he’s rated second only to their Coventry runner River Tiber in the current pecking order.  
JOHANNES BRAHMS 1 point win @ 5/1 Bet365  

Very enjoyable.
Would be great if you two guys did this for Saturday race day with a guest from the racing forum getting a few minutes to give there thought's & best bets for the day ahead  could be a different person each week The likes of Richard, Mclarke, Zilzalian & Chris etc.

This meeting is the premier flat meeting of the year and because of the prestige and prize money involved we can be confident that all horses will be running on their merits. Whilst there are many variables that will determine the results form will be more reliable than in other races.
Favourites have won 75 out of 298 races and generated a profit. 2nd favourites have also proved profitable.
In fact, with the quality of the racing it is best to stick with the top 4 in the betting forecast.
Some statistics that might help pick a few profitable winners include:
1.       Horses that last ran at Newmarket have recorded 22 wins from 126 races with a profit of 155 points.
2.       Horses that are having their 1st or 2nd run of the season have recorded 152 wins from 986 runs with a profit of 103 points.
3.       Horses that last ran 37 to 47 days ago have recorded 35 wins from 191 runs with a profit of 73 points.
4.       Horses that last ran in a group race have recorded 63 wins from 301 runs with a profit of 61 points.
5.       Horses that last ran at Epsom have recorded 16 wins from 60 races with a profit of 41 points.
 
Key statistics related to the non-handicap races include:
1.       Horses that finished outside the top 4 last time have recorded 41 wins from 519 runs with a profit of 133 points.
2.       The best forecast odds range is 3/1 to 11/2 with 58 wins from 291 runs and a profit of 50 points.
3.       Horses bred in the UK have a good record with 71 wins from 908 runs and a profit of 221 points.
4.       In large fields low draws have the best record with 11 wins from 109 runs and a profit of 54 points.
5.       1st and 2nd favourites have recorded 103 wins from 428 runs with a profit of 17 points.
 
Key statistics related to the handicap races include:
1.       Forecast favourites have a good record with 18 wins from 85 races and a profit of 21 points.
2.       Horses that last ran more than 73 days ago have recorded 16 wins from 272 runs with a profit of 163 points.
3.       Horses in the weight range 9st 1lbs to 9st 3lbs have recorded 30 wins from 432 runs with a profit of 98 points.
4.       Horses ranked 6th to 15th in the betting forecast have recorded 36 wins from 867 runs with a profit of 167 points.
5.       Horses with forecast odds of 12/1 to 14/1 have recorded 23 wins from 340 runs with a profit of 117 points.

This Saturday sees the running of the Macmillan Sprint Handicap at York. This is the biggest charity meeting in Britain and has raised approximately £10 million for good causes.
This heritage handicap is for three-year-olds. It is run over 6 furlongs and the off time is 15.40.
22 go to post and with many bookmakers offering 6 places it makes it an excellent betting proposition.
 
I have looked at the statistics over the last 9 years and these are my key conclusions.
Those horses drawn in stalls 1 to 7 have by far the best record with 6 wins from 53 runs and a profit of 38 points at Betfair Starting Price. The remainder have just 2 wins from 96 runs with a loss of 59 points.
Horses that finished 3rd, 4th or 5th last time have a good record with 4 wins from 40 runs and a profit of 40 points.
The ideal weight range is 9st 2 lbs to 9st 8lbs with 4 wins from 36 runs and a profit of 21 points.
 
Only 1 horse matches these criteria.
RABAAH 11/1
I suggest backing this each way with bookmakers offering 6 places.

The calm before the storm? We’re only four days away from the greatest flat meeting in the world in Royal Ascot but we’ve still got seven races today from Sandown, York and a sole handicap from Chester beamed to us by ITV and with the ground fast at all three meetings here are my thoughts to beat the bookies this Saturday.   York 14:00 York’s card kicks off with the Queen Mother’s Cup run over 1M 4F, a handicap for female amateur riders only. As always in this race we have a good sized field of 15. Adrian Paul Keatley has booked crack Irish amateur Miss Jodie Townend, sister of Paul and has as good a chance as any here having won over course and distance last month. The six year old has actually won a half decent handicap hurdle at Market Rasen since and should be thereabouts. Last year’s winning jockey Miss Alice Stevens rides Ian William’s Dream Harder who was a bit unlucky under William Buick at Chester last time although has to prove himself on very fast ground. One horse who does look particularly well handicapped on his National Hunt form is the Brian Ellison trained Impulsive One who’s rated as high as 131 over timber when trained by Nicky Henderson and reverts back to the flat now rated just 79 so using the old theory of 40lb between the two codes puts him in here with a big shout. He’s my tentative each way bet in this wide open handicap.   IMPULSIVE ONE 1 point each way @ 12/1 bet365 1/5th 1234   Sandown 14:15 Thirteen go to post for this 1M class 2 0-100 handicap. It has an open look about it although if there is one horse who may just be ahead of his mark here it’s probably one of the two three year olds in the contest down the bottom of the handicap in Charlie Hills’ Bodorgan. He made his handicap/re-appearance debut in the valuable Betfred Silver Bowl at Haydock last month when despite finding trouble in running finished 5th beaten 4 3/4L to the well supported favourite Covey. But for finding trouble two out he may well have been placed and off of the same mark and with champion jockey William Buick booked is the one to be with here. The only slight negative is his draw in stall 10 of 13 but I’m sure Buick will have a plan and can overcome that wide draw. The other three year old Zu Run, trained by Andrew Balding and ridden by Oisin Murphy is drawn even wider than the selection but has place claims along with the likes of Helm Rock (drawn even wider in 13) and Baltimore Boy who finished just behind him at Ascot in a boys race last time. Ryan Moore takes the ride for the Sir Michael Stoute trained New Dimension which is always interesting although we haven’t seen him for 293 days. One horse that’s worth keeping an eye on here is the Saeed Bin Suroor trained First View who we haven’t seen since the Dubai Carnival 127 days ago.   BODORGAN 2 points win @ 4/1 Betfred   York 14:35 A competitive class 3 7F 0-95 handicap for three year olds and upwards has attracted 13 runners. Darkness, trained by David O’Meara hasn’t won since joining O’Meara from France some 14 starts ago but has been knocking on the door recently having just been claimed close home at Goodwood last time and off of the same mark has to be on the short list. Saeed Bin Suroor’s Wild Lion is an interesting runner in first time cheek pieces and is best watched closely in the market after a 113 day layoff whilst Geoffrey Harker’s veteran ten year old Scottish Summit arrives in excellent form and despite his age shouldn’t be dismissed. The only three year old in the race is Richard Fahey’s Indian Falcon who is yet another with claims. A wide open contest where bets should be kept to a minimum and I’ll take a chance on the Godolphin runner Wild Lion who although yet to win on the turf in five attempts is still lightly raced enough to make a mark under Kieran O’Neill.   WILD LION 1/2 point each way @ 8/1 bet365 1/5th 1234   Sandown 14:50 Only nine have declared for this listed Milton Colts Scurry Stakes to be run over 5F for three year olds only. The draw is not as important as days gone by although I do feel drawn on the rail on the far side (low numbers) is the place to be. Richard Fahey’s Great State has to shoulder a 3lb penalty for his listed success at York last month when defeating Pillow Talk by 2 1/2L although the runner up that day has been soundly beaten since by one of his opponents today in the shape of George Boughey’s Perdika who is the other runner here to carry a 3lb penalty having won a listed contest at Chantilly in France a fortnight ago. My worry with her is that she appears to have been kept away from very fast ground although to be fair to her that latest victory did come on good ground. I’m keen to take the pair of them on with the highly promising Roger Varian trained, Sheikh Ahmed Al Maktoum owned Tajalla. He’s unbeaten in two starts at Newmarket 14 months ago on his debut and when re-appearing at Hamilton six weeks ago when making hard work of it to scrape home from Silent Words (4th to Great State since). That form alone will probably not be good enough here but it was his first start for 388 days and must surely have benefited from the outing and with David Egan on board can improve to take this valuable sprint.   TAJALLA 1 point win @ 10/3 BetVictor   York 15:05 The 1M 6F Sky Bet Race To The Ebor Grand Cup is a listed contest which has attracted just seven runners. The winner here gets an automatic entry in The Ebor over course and distance in July. The best in here at these weights is Hughie Morrison’s Quickthorn who is more than capable especially if give an easy lead as he was in last year’s Lonsdale Cup at the Ebor meeting when beating current Gold Cup favourite Coltrane by 14L over 2M. There was nothing wrong with his 4th in the Yorkshire Cup over course and distance last time with the horse that at he finished just behind him Siskany winning a Grade 2 in North America since. His main danger here will be the John & Thady Gosden trained Israr who has claims to be the best bred horse running anywhere today being by Muhaarar out of the great mare Taghrooda who won the Oaks and the King George at Ascot. His runner up last time to Haskoy in the Group 3 Aston Park Stakes at Newbury was a decent effort and she steps upto 1M 6F for the first time today. Roberto Escobar won this race two years ago and bounced back to form when winning the Group 3 Henry II Stakes at Sandown over two miles last month. That was a weak renewal of the race and he has to carry a 5lb penalty here which will make it tough. This can be fought out by Israr and Quickthorn with preference marginally for the latter who may just get an easy lead.   QUICKTHORN 1 point win @ 2/1 Paddy Power   Chester 15:20 A valuable 7F 127 yards class 2 three year olds only handicap is up next which, as always at Chester, the draw is highly significant. The current favourite Man Of Eden is due to run on Friday evening at Goodwood so there is a big possibility that he won’t turn up prompting a rule 4. He was an eye-catcher last time at Goodwood and were he to rock up here would be a player from stall 6. William Haggas has hit a rich vein of form this week with an across the card treble on Wednesday and his Tafreej has shown enough in two handicap starts this season to warrant plenty of respect here under Cieren Fallon. It’s hard to fancy those drawn out very wide as they have a mountain to climb before even leaving the gate so from a punting view we can put a line through the likes of Venetian (drawn 12), Saxon King (10) and In These Shoes (11). The bottom weight Sophia’s Starlight is the one to be with here from an attractive draw in stall 2. She’s a carefree front runner who can take a hold but showed last time at Wetherby (and earlier this season at Wolverhampton) that she can be very effective if allowed to get on the front end and clock her own fractions. She did it well at Wetherby from the front in a time 0.91 secs faster than the older horse handicap later on the card and off of just a 3lb higher mark we look sure to get a decent run for our money from the Grant Tuer trained, Nick Bradley owned filly.   SOPHIAS STARLIGHT 1 point each way @ 6/1 bet365 1/5th 1234   York 15:40 The feature race of the day is the Oakmere Homes Supporting Macmilan Sprint Handicap, a 6F handicap for three year olds only rated 0-105. It’s a wide open renewal this year with bookmakers currently betting 7-1 the field. Kevin Ryan saddles a trio of horses with chances including Quintus Arrius, a winner at Hamilton last time and now 6lb higher and Washington Heights who’s form ties in nicely with the five timer chasing Quinault trained by Stuart Williams. The former is actually 4lb better off for a length with Quinault so there shouldn’t be much between that pair. The only horse in the field who has future Group entries is Jane Chapple-Hyam’s top weight Mill Stream who was a progressive juvenile but was well beaten on his re-appearance in the Sandy Lane at Haydock and there may be doubts as to whether he’s even trained on. Charlie Hills’ Shadwell owned colt Rabaah is also making his handicap debut following two impressive victories on the all weather and wasn’t disgraced when 5th to the improving Shaquille in listed company at Newbury last month. He had horses rated 106 and 100 behind him that day when dead heating for 5th place with the 117 rated Noble Style so an initial mark of 97 may actually be lenient if that run can be believed. It’s a wide open contest with chances for many but I’ll take a chance that Jim Crowley’s mount Rabaah is well enough in to beat his rivals.   RABAAH 1 point each way @ 10/1 BetVictor 1/5th 12345   All odds are accurate at time of writing.  

Todays lays win and place 
1pt win lay - 1pt place lay 
Any horse 3 and over at the off  on Betfair for me is 4mins before is no lay 
(Will update Day 4 later today as running late today )
Day 5 
 
Carlisle 
15.40 Whats The Story 
------------------------------------
Market Rasen 
17.45 Redbridge Rambler 
---------------------------------
Redcar 
15.30 Senesi 
17.05 Mr Jetman 
17.40 Galilaeus 
 
 

Day 1 update 
Salisbury 
13.30 My Genghis No Bet went off 3.65 
14.05 Juniper Berries win lay = 1pt + place lay = 0.38pt- 
15.45 Kingfisher King = Win lay =1.54pt- Place lay = 0.38pt-
-----------------------------------------
York 
16.45 Impressive Act No Bet went off 3.85 
-------------------------------------------------
Perth 
14.50 NR 
15.25 Haribo Collonges Win lay = 1pt+ Place lay = 0.32pt-
-----------------------------------------------------------
Newmarket 
17.15 Flag Of St George Win Lay= 1.84pt- Place lay = 0.52pt- 
-----------------------------------------------
Fontwell 
16.50 Somespring Special Win Lay = 1.20pt- Place lay = 0.30pt-
-----------------------------------------------
Tipperary 
 
17.00 Jit Langy Win Lay = 0.40pt- Place Lay = 0.08pt- 
 
Win Lays , 6 lays , 2 win, 4 loss , 
Win = 2pts+ = 1.96pts after 2% comm 
Loss = 4.98pts- 
= 3.02pts- Loss
Place Lays, 6 loss 
Loss = 1.98pts 
Day 1 = 5pts loss 
Bank = 100pts - 5 = 95pts 
Average odds of Win lays = 2.25 
Average odds of Place lays = 1.33
-----------------------------------------
For Data only 
No bets at 3.00 and over 
2 win lays = 2+ Average odds 3.75 
2place lays = 2- = 1.44 - Average odds 1.72 
 
 
 
 

Good day for @The Brigadier and his followers . Winners so far of 5/1 12/1 and 16/1 . Well done chap .

The first classic is upon us with the Qipco 2000 Guineas taking center stage at Newmarket this afternoon. The ITV cameras are there for five races including the big one at 16:40 whilst they will be showing the Thirsk Hunt Cup plus a class 2 handicap from Goodwood. The ground is good to firm at Newmarket although there are showers on the way whilst the ground at Goodwood is on the slow side and perfect good ground at Thirsk. Here’s my thoughts on the days action.   Newmarket 14:15 An interesting fillies and mares 6F listed contest that has attracted eleven runners. Micheal Dods saddles a brace of sprinters in the shape of Azure Blue and Gale Force Mayo with preference for the latter who has such a good record here. I am concerned however by the form of the County Durham based trainer who’s had just the one winner in his last 35 runners although that did come earlier this week. The latter is officially the best in the field at today’s weights and should run well mind. The drying ground appears to have gone for Karl Burke’s Fast Response whilst Richard Hannon’s useful filly Heredia is dropping a furlong which isn’t certain to suit. I’ll take a chance with the only Irish runner in the field in the shape of Ken Condon’s four year old Spring Fever who will be ridden by Danny Tudhope. Lightly raced in her Classic year she was a Tipperary maiden winner over 7 1/2F in August prior to putting up her best performance when 3rd in a Group 3 at the same track three weeks later at 7F. She is dropping in trip here but has some juicy future entries including the 6F Platinum Jubilee Stakes at Royal Ascot (the only runner in the field to hold an entry in that prestigious sprint) and is maybe worth taking a chance on.   SPRING FEELING 1 point each way @ 11/1 William Hill 1/5 123   Newmarket 14:50 A wide open 6F class 2 handicap with a near maximum 23 runners spread across the Newmarket Rowley Mile. Chances can be given to many with my short list comprising of Charlie Hills’s Tanmawwy who is 2lb well in here having run well when runner up at Newbury a fortnight ago. Last year’s winner Blackrod is an interesting runner who is now in the care of Roger Teal and may well have prepped for this with an outing on the all weather at Kempton last month. The stable are not really firing at the moment mind and he is 2lb higher than last season. Ed Walkers consistent sprinter Popmaster was 9th in this last year and is now 9lb better off with Blackrod for a 2 1/2L beating so could go well having run down the field at Newbury in the race that Tanmawwy was second in a fortnight ago. Celsius would be high up on my short list as he has a very good record fresh wining on three of the last four seasons first time out and the booking of Harry Davies looks enticing. His form actually ties in with Tom Tate’s Equiano Springs who has won four times from five starts here at Newmarket. The ground was probably on the slow side for him when he also ran too free here at the Craven meeting and at a big price I’ll take him to cause an upset with Celsius also in the staking plan.   EQUIANO SPRINGS 1/2 point each way @ 33/1 William Hill 1/5th 123456 CELSIUS 1/2 point each way @ 20/1 bet365 1/5th 123456   Goodwood 15:05 Just ten have declared for this class 2 0-100 10F handicap with the likely favourite the Charlie Hills trained, Shadwell owned Maghlaak. He starts off in handicaps off of what may be a workable mark of 86 and is chasing a hat trick here following wins at Kempton on the all weather and over course and distance last September. That win hasn’t worked out that well and may represent poor value here. Richard Hughes’s Aussie Banker arrives in good form having placed twice in his last two starts on the all weather and has claims but the horse I like best is the John And Thady Gosden trained Honiton who was a bit unfortunate in bumping into some decent sorts last season including My Prospero (official rating now 121), Secret State (OR 110) and Eldar Eldarov (OR 116). He ran flat on his handicap debut at Royal Ascot which came a week after an easy win at Sandown. He’s been gelded since and a handicap mark of 93 looks very workable. The drying ground maybe against mudlark Bad Company who did it so well at Epsom 11 days ago whilst top weight Stay Well has run well fresh in the past and is not out of this.   HONITON 2 points each way @ 4/1 William Hill 1/5th 1234   Newmarket 15:25 Another bumper field for this valuable 9F class 2 handicap, the Howden Suffolk Stakes. Many can be given chances with Godolphin’s King Of Conquest right amongst them having won a valuable handicap in Bahrain in February. The handicapper has reacted by rising him 10lb for that but he should be thereabouts. Jimi Hendrix proved his Lincoln Handicap run to be all wrong when scooting up at Newbury last month, a race for which he’s been raised 9lb for. He should be thereabouts also if coping with this sounder surface. The drying ground may be against the likes of Empirestateofmind, Great Max and Titian however. Last year’s course and distance winner of the Cambridgeshire Majestic trained by Jack Channon ran well on his re-appearance on heavy ground when 4th in the Lincoln, a race that has worked out well, and back on better ground has to be a player here and he’s the each way pick for me although I can’t resist a small saver on track specialist Turntable who’s won 4 of his 6 races at this track including twice last Autumn when ridden by today’s capable jockey Kaiya Fraser who claims 7lb. This is his first run for a new trainer in the very much in form Harry Eustace having joined from the now retired Chris Wall.   MAJESTIC 1 point each way 9/1 bet365 1/5th 12345 TURNTABLE 1/2 point each way 10/1 bet365 1/5th 12345   Thirsk 15:40 The feature race of the day at the Yorkshire track is the 1M Thirsk Hunt Cup, a class 2 handicap for 4 year olds and upwards and has attracted a healthy field of 15. The race has a real open look about it with plenty holding chances of sorts. Top weight Cruyff Turn is the best horse in the race but one thinks that this will be a race to get him ready for another go at York’s Dante meeting. A couple who’s form entangle together is the Ann Duffield trained Billyb and Micky Hammond’s Carnival Zain with preference for the latter who’s well berthed in stall 5 and is two from two here. With the useful Aiden Brookes, claiming 5lb booked he’s worth a small each way bet in such an open handicap. David O’Meara saddles a trio of runners with Autumn Festival, who racked up a a five timer last season having to put a poor well beaten effort at Musselburgh on his re-appearance behind him whilst Pisanello was third in this last year from a one pound higher handicap mark. Tuscan is the third O’Meara runner whom I fancied a bit last week at Haydock when easy to back and running moderately.   CARNIVAL ZAIN 1/2 bet each way @ 10/1 bet365 1/5th 1234   Newmarket 16:00 The Group 3 Palace House Stakes is up next with a good sized field of 17 going to post for this 5F contest. Take out the rank outsider Sandbeck and on official ratings there’s only 7lb between the sixteen showing how open the contest is. Although I do think that Henry Candy’s five year old Twilight Calls has an excellent chance. A winner first time out for the last two seasons he has the assistance of Ryan Moore today and a reproduction of either of his second spots in Group 2 and Group 1 company last Summer would be good enough to take this with his optimum conditions today. Trainer Candy has his string in fine form winning with 3 of his last 10 runners and must go close here even if he did go off a similar price last year when only finishing 5th. John Ryan’s Manaccan has to carry a 3lb penalty for his Group 3 Dundalk victory last Autumn and should be thereabouts but I much prefer Twilight Calls. Charlie Hills does so well with his sprinters and saddles a brace here in Equilateral and Equality with preference for the latter who goes well fresh and has the assistance of William Buick today. He can run well but it’s all about the Candy horse for me.   TWILIGHT CALLS 2 points win @ 3/1 bet365   Newmarket 16:40 The first colts classic of the 2023 turf season is as intriguing as ever. Aiden O’Brien sets a poser by saddling both last year’s top rated two year old Little Big Bear and the highly promising Auguste Rodin. Ryan Moore appears to have chosen the latter but it can’t have been an easy decision with his mount ideally needing further so any rain before race time would suit him. In contrast Little Big Bear who will be ridden by Wayne Lordan looks fast and has doubts about seeing out a mile although his breeding suggests he may well stay a mile. Chaldean comes here as a smart juvenile whose attempt at having a prep run ended in disaster with Frankie Dettori unseated at the stalls in the Greenham at Newbury a fortnight ago. He should be thereabouts and Dettori will be hoping for a classic win in his final year race riding. Sakheer may well struggle staying the mile whilst the pick of the Godolphin pair may well be Silver Knott although he was behind Chaldean last year and his stable seem to be struggling for top form at the moment. Royal Scotsman should not be overlooked either but I’ll take Little Big Bear to score for team Ballydoyle as he was the best of these as a juvenile and although there’s plenty of talk about him not staying his pedigree suggests otherwise.   LITTLE BIG BEAR 2 points each way @ 11/2 William Hill 1/5 1234     All odds are accurate at the time of writing    

Big question! Can you find a good reason why your selection method should be profitable at some tracks and not others? I'd want to be convinced it wasn't just random before I changed the approach, in case I ended up just betting at the profitable tracks in time for regression to the mean to kick in (more winners at the "bad" tracks and more losers at the "good" ones).
I think sometimes you have a sample size that is just about big enough to be meaningful overall but when you start breaking it down into smaller categories you end up observing things that are statistically insignificant. I've never done it but I always wonder if my data might tell me that players with an odd number of letters in their name were more profitable than those with an even number, or short names v long names, but I'd obviously assume that was an anomaly. When you look at categories that could be relevant (like courses for instance) it's harder to tell whether you should trust what the stats are telling you.

For goodness sake it's a ' naps' competition,  nap being a person's best bet of the day whether that be 1/10 or 100/1 is  irrelevant , if bog is defunct then industry sp is the only sensible option . 
Don't be drawn in by a certain 'members' constant attempt to change the rules to suit himself and uses the 'grind 'em down till I get my way'  approach. 
You start making restrictions of highest/ lowest price , minimum winners , what times you can register your selection and some contributors will take the opinion it's just not worth the hassle. 
Simplicity is always the way to go. 
 

Congratulations @Johnrobertson 19 winners from 25 selections is an excellent strike rate ?

Good luck with getting 10 winners at 4/1 or more, I'll set you the challenge !
I agree with Alistair, achieving a £10 profit is not easy and should be commended not penalised