Lexia Posted July 12, 2023 Share Posted July 12, 2023 (edited) Hello, I have been doing PP Money Back if 2nd or 3rd and WH Plus Boost, Bet £10 Get £10 Free bet and MBAL for a few weeks. I am having bad results - mostly losses/break even with PP Money Back if 2nd or 3rd offer. Can anyone please give any tips with punting horses, how to predict and choose a horse that will likely win and help me become a better punter? For example, one of the PP's races today 15:20 Yarmouth, I wanted to punt/AP Goblet Of Fire(2nd fav) but then I decided to go with Sun Festival(Fav) because it won last week but Goblet Of Fire won ;( I would appreciate any tips very much. I am very frustrated and tired of the losses. Edited July 12, 2023 by Lexia Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted July 12, 2023 Share Posted July 12, 2023 Logically, with money back offers, just back the favourite, especially if it is a short price and / or there are not a lot of runners. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lexia Posted July 12, 2023 Author Share Posted July 12, 2023 (edited) Just back the favourite!? That's all? No pro tips or any other tips? What does 'short price' mean? As said in my post, unfortunately the PP Money Back if 2nd or 3rd race have 8 or more runners. I never seen less than 8... Don't you have some tips that will enable me to win almost every time or most of the time? If I back the favourite for every race, I will be winning and losing 50/50 or more/less Edited July 12, 2023 by Lexia In Play Race Reader, fd1972uk and Nigwilliam 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted July 12, 2023 Share Posted July 12, 2023 19 minutes ago, Lexia said: Just back the favourite!? That's all? Yep, whilst you have the money back offer, just back the favourite. Keep records and work out which odds it is profitable at and what number of runners it is profitable at. You are very fortunate to have this offer, most of us don't. I made over £800 just backing the favourite before the offer was taken from me. 1 hour ago, Lexia said: Don't you have some tips that will enable me to win almost every time or most of the time? No. If I did I would be on my yacht in the Bahamas ! Ryanpete, Nigwilliam, Bang on and 3 others 4 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lexia Posted July 12, 2023 Author Share Posted July 12, 2023 What about 2nd fav and others? Why not? It should be available for most of you too. Was that when they had 4 races a day and for how long? Aren't you a 'pro punter' ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted July 13, 2023 Share Posted July 13, 2023 11 hours ago, Lexia said: Aren't you a 'pro punter' ? No. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lexia Posted July 13, 2023 Author Share Posted July 13, 2023 Does anyone else have any tips? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yossa6133 Posted July 13, 2023 Share Posted July 13, 2023 I'd do what MCCLARKE said while you have the offers. Watch the races and get a feel for things, @Zilzalian is brilliant for advice, I'm sure he'll give you some pointers if he's online. MCLARKE 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lexia Posted July 13, 2023 Author Share Posted July 13, 2023 I am sceptical of Mcclarke's tips coz about 70% of the time 2nd fav or others wins. I am hoping if there are tips that I can win almost always or most of the time if there are. 1 strategy I am considering is punting/AP the horse with closest back and lay odds(On an exchange). What are everyone's thoughts? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bang on Posted July 13, 2023 Share Posted July 13, 2023 5 minutes ago, Lexia said: I am sceptical of Mcclarke's tips coz about 70% of the time 2nd fav or others wins. I am hoping if there are tips that I can win almost always or most of the time if there are. 1 strategy I am considering is punting/AP the horse with closest back and lay odds(On an exchange). What are everyone's thoughts? Why not 'paper trade ' your idea ? If you truly want to be a better punter, it takes effort. I'm sure we have all made countless mistakes when we started, the idea is to record as much detail as possible and try to eliminate as many bad habits as possible. The advice of backing Favs is probably not a bad one, although I'm not sure what the actual 'offer' is that you get. harry_rag and MCLARKE 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted July 13, 2023 Share Posted July 13, 2023 3 minutes ago, Lexia said: I am sceptical of Mcclarke's tips coz about 70% of the time 2nd fav or others wins. But if you back any other horse the % of times the favourite or another horse wins will be even higher. @MCLARKE was simply suggesting to you (as someone who acknowledges that they haven't got much of an idea how to pick a horse) the best way to optimise your return from the PP offer. (The favourite is likely to either win or trigger the money back offer more than any other selection that you might select at random.) 7 minutes ago, Lexia said: I am hoping if there are tips that I can win almost always or most of the time No, there aren't. Put a lot of hard work and study in for a long time to improve your ability to identify horses that are on offer at a reasonable price as opposed to a poor one. The very best punters only make a relatively small profit as a % of turnover and still encounter losing runs. 3 of them could look at the same race and all come up with a different selection. Even then they won't always find the winner. On the evidence of your posts you seem to have an unrealistic expectation of there being some sort of easy route to constant profit. My inclination is to suggest that betting isn't for you and you'd probably be better looking for another hobby. You're not enjoying it while you're losing (a reality that the vast majority of recreational punters have to accept) and seem to be aspiring to a quick fix that is unlikely to be attainable. Bang on, Nigwilliam, MCLARKE and 2 others 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lexia Posted July 13, 2023 Author Share Posted July 13, 2023 Could anyone help me? What is the number of Just Janet before the race started(Based on odds)? https://www.attheraces.com/racecard/Catterick/12-July-2023/1540 @bang on What do you mean by 'paper trade' ? I know it takes effort and time, although it is very frustrating, tiring and discouraging. Some may feel like giving up. As stated on the post, 'PP Money Back if 2nd or 3rd and WH Plus Boost, Bet £10 Get £10 Free bet and MBAL' Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yossa6133 Posted July 13, 2023 Share Posted July 13, 2023 Paper trading is picking out the bets but not actually putting the money on, and just tracking how you get on. Bang on and MCLARKE 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bang on Posted July 13, 2023 Share Posted July 13, 2023 2 hours ago, Lexia said: Could anyone help me? What is the number of Just Janet before the race started(Based on odds)? https://www.attheraces.com/racecard/Catterick/12-July-2023/1540 @bang on What do you mean by 'paper trade' ? I know it takes effort and time, although it is very frustrating, tiring and discouraging. Some may feel like giving up. As stated on the post, 'PP Money Back if 2nd or 3rd and WH Plus Boost, Bet £10 Get £10 Free bet and MBAL' Recording the bets that you 'might have had' but didn't actually put any money down. Even over a week (or better still a month) will give you an idea as to whether or not it is worth doing. Believe me, I have had lots of 'ideas' over the years, but very few have been successful long term (over 3 months). The biggest mistakes.. and reason for failure with punters are underfunding (too small a betting bank - a few losses cause a panic),... disillusionment ( it doesn't make money fast enough so other bets start to creep in.. instant failure), ... and greed (trying to win too much at once). Most professionals are more than happy to make slow and steady progress, there really is no quick fix solution. Alastair 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alastair Posted July 13, 2023 Share Posted July 13, 2023 1 hour ago, Bang on said: Recording the bets that you 'might have had' but didn't actually put any money down. Even over a week (or better still a month) will give you an idea as to whether or not it is worth doing. Believe me, I have had lots of 'ideas' over the years, but very few have been successful long term (over 3 months). The biggest mistakes.. and reason for failure with punters are underfunding (too small a betting bank - a few losses cause a panic),... disillusionment ( it doesn't make money fast enough so other bets start to creep in.. instant failure), ... and greed (trying to win too much at once). Most professionals are more than happy to make slow and steady progress, there really is no quick fix solution. A very good summary. For Lexia to get an appreciation of what it is realistic to hope to achieve, arguably the best UK racing punter of the last 30 years Patrick Veitch stated he achieved a profit on turnover of 16.6% in his book "Public Enemy". In every 10 bets that equates to two 100/30 winners, one 2/1 winner and 7 losers. MCLARKE and Bang on 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fd1972uk Posted July 13, 2023 Share Posted July 13, 2023 I have nothing constructive to add to this thread, but I thank you for making this a 'Gold'thread for me. Brilliant. Alastair, Bang on and MCLARKE 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted July 13, 2023 Share Posted July 13, 2023 4 hours ago, Alastair said: A very good summary. For Lexia to get an appreciation of what it is realistic to hope to achieve, arguably the best UK racing punter of the last 30 years Patrick Veitch stated he achieved a profit on turnover of 16.6% in his book "Public Enemy". In every 10 bets that equates to two 100/30 winners, one 2/1 winner and 7 losers. I am happy to make 5% over the course of a year but I will have losing months within that. When I first started betting over 40 years ago I thought it was the way to make an easy fortune. 25 years of losses later I realised it wasn't ! Bang on and Alastair 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lexia Posted July 13, 2023 Author Share Posted July 13, 2023 6 hours ago, Bang on said: Recording the bets that you 'might have had' but didn't actually put any money down. Even over a week (or better still a month) will give you an idea as to whether or not it is worth doing. Believe me, I have had lots of 'ideas' over the years, but very few have been successful long term (over 3 months). The biggest mistakes.. and reason for failure with punters are underfunding (too small a betting bank - a few losses cause a panic),... disillusionment ( it doesn't make money fast enough so other bets start to creep in.. instant failure), ... and greed (trying to win too much at once). Most professionals are more than happy to make slow and steady progress, there really is no quick fix solution. I still want to be profiting not having losses overall in a week/month. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lexia Posted July 13, 2023 Author Share Posted July 13, 2023 22 hours ago, MCLARKE said: Yep, whilst you have the money back offer, just back the favourite. Keep records and work out which odds it is profitable at and what number of runners it is profitable at. You are very fortunate to have this offer, most of us don't. I made over £800 just backing the favourite before the offer was taken from me. No. If I did I would be on my yacht in the Bahamas ! I am struggling with which app should I use to keep records. I prefer not to pay for a Microsoft Excel. Is it ok to just record them on Notepad or what? Also wdym by 'which odds it is profitable at and what number of runners it is profitable at'? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted July 13, 2023 Share Posted July 13, 2023 Personally I couldn't get by without Excel If you keep records you might find that it is not profitable at odds above 3/1 or when there are more than 12 runners Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted July 13, 2023 Share Posted July 13, 2023 1 minute ago, MCLARKE said: Personally I couldn't get by without Excel Libre Office is a perfectly viable free alternative and I’m sure there are others. MCLARKE and Nigwilliam 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alastair Posted July 14, 2023 Share Posted July 14, 2023 9 hours ago, Lexia said: I still want to be profiting not having losses overall in a week/month. Everybody wants to be profiting every week but nobody does. Ditto I doubt if anybody profits every month. You need to adopt a longer timeframe - say 3 months- to aim for profits. The purpose of the paper bets approach is to see if the ideas you have are profitable in the long term. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lexia Posted July 14, 2023 Author Share Posted July 14, 2023 Could anyone help please? What is the horse number of Just Janet before the race started(Based on odds)? Like fav, 2nd, 3rd e.g.? https://www.attheraces.com/racecard/Catterick/12-July-2023/1540 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lexia Posted July 14, 2023 Author Share Posted July 14, 2023 1 hour ago, Alastair said: Everybody wants to be profiting every week but nobody does. Ditto I doubt if anybody profits every month. You need to adopt a longer timeframe - say 3 months- to aim for profits. The purpose of the paper bets approach is to see if the ideas you have are profitable in the long term. If I do paper trading, then what strategy should I go with in the meantime while I am still punting with real money? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alastair Posted July 14, 2023 Share Posted July 14, 2023 4 minutes ago, Lexia said: If I do paper trading, then what strategy should I go with in the meantime while I am still punting with real money? According to your opening post you are not doing very well at the moment punting with real money so it might be best to take a break from that and just do paper trading. Save up some money which you can set aside as your betting bank which is money earmarked solely for betting - you should have done this already - and return to real betting when you are satisfied from the results of your paper trading that you have a reasonable chance of being profitable. MCLARKE and Nigwilliam 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted July 14, 2023 Share Posted July 14, 2023 1 hour ago, Lexia said: If I do paper trading, then what strategy should I go with in the meantime while I am still punting with real money? If you have the money back as cash offer then back the favourite as I have suggested, I would be surprised iy you weren't in profit over a monthly period. Otherwise paper trade as has been suggested. Nigwilliam 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lexia Posted July 14, 2023 Author Share Posted July 14, 2023 54 minutes ago, MCLARKE said: If you have the money back as cash offer then back the favourite as I have suggested, I would be surprised iy you weren't in profit over a monthly period. Otherwise paper trade as has been suggested. What about Bet £10 Get £10 free bet and MBAL? Also could you tell me what is the horse number of Just Janet before the race started(Based on odds) pls? Like fav, 2nd, 3rd e.g.? https://www.attheraces.com/racecard/Catterick/12-July-2023/1540 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted July 14, 2023 Share Posted July 14, 2023 39 minutes ago, Lexia said: What about Bet £10 Get £10 free bet and MBAL? The MBAL you obviously can't lose at, for maximum profits you need odds somewhere between 6/1 to 10/1 The free bet offers are a bit more complex, again you are better off going for the favourite, with the free bet again you need odds between 6/1 and 10/1 I've made thousands from these offers over the years if you play them right Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted July 14, 2023 Share Posted July 14, 2023 43 minutes ago, Lexia said: Also could you tell me what is the horse number of Just Janet before the race started(Based on odds) pls? Like fav, 2nd, 3rd e.g.? How long before the race started ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lexia Posted July 14, 2023 Author Share Posted July 14, 2023 14 minutes ago, MCLARKE said: How long before the race started ? No as in, was Just Janet the fav, 2nd or 3rd e.g. horse Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
.thumb.JPG.8c5a15b710f7a4188ce438df64354c1e.JPG)
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.