2000 and 1000 guineas

[richard-westwood]

Saturday is the 2000 guineas with the 1000 following on Sunday .....of course in the 2000 guineas all eyes are on the Aiden o briens ...CITY OF TROY  who is being likened to o briens version of Frankel 

Can't argue that the horse has done everything asked so far in facile manner so it's hard to see how this horse will be beat surely but either way ....when there's a short priced fav there has to be an opportunity for value bets elsewhere so I've asked the computer to rate the current 21 entries with a view to seeing what if anything could be a potential value bet alternative bet ....these are the ratings that came back ....

City of Troy 9.2 4/6 

Henry Longfellow. 8.9. 25/1 

Haatem  8.8 25/1 

Ghostwriter.  8.6 16/1 

Rosallion.  8.5 5/1 

Interesting set of results ....computer has city of Troy clear but he has been downgraded slightly based on unknown on fast ground ....so if there is any chink in this favs armour that's possibly it if the ground goes fast as it currently is .....the horse was soooo effective on soft recording a fast time ...can he be equally effective on fast ????.....not many horses can as it requires a different action but not impossible 

If the rating holds true then Aiden o brien would get the 2nd spot too with Henry Longfellow who has quietly risen through the ranks and has generally been overlooked ....but we all know never to ignore o briens 2nd or 3rd strings as they regularly pop up when you least expect them 

Not much between haatem and ghostwriter on form ...they both look very evenly matched ....you could argue that ghostwriter just edged it with class and going if the ground comes up fast but I wouldn't like to put money on that come the day .....especially if the ground came up good as that would very much swing back in haatems favour 

And finally rosallion .....who is a lot of people's idea of an Ew horse if there is one and I can't fault the horse and he's very much an improving type .....for me there's no value in the horse at all when you compare him to the other better priced horses in the ratings ......all comes down to value really ....

Good form actually at Newmarket is a very good thing to have also ....with the undulations really not suiting many horses ....good form can realistically give you as much as 5lb bonus so based on that ......

City of Troy   won

Henry Longfellow. Unknown 

Haatem. Won 

Ghostwriter. Won 

Rosallion.  Unknown 

That would seem to strengthen the Ew value of haatem and ghostwriter and overall those two look the overall best value in the race .....nothing wrong with Henry Longfellow though .....looks prime for forecasts and tricasts I think 🤔....although it may help later today as I think declarations  have to be in today ?....so some might drop out yet ....Aiden might not even run Henry after all which would help .....just a shame only 3 places on offer for a 20 runner race currently ....that's pretty crap really ...cmon bookies 

Anyone liking any of those ??....or other thoughts ?

Edited April 29 by richard-westwood

[Zilzalian]

Well @richard-westwood every year O'Brien has the best thing since sliced bread how often have we heard the hype? A tactic they use to scare a few off and inflate the Stud value if it wins "see we told you"  August Rodin, Airforce Blue and little Big Bear to name 3. So ignoring the fav in favour of a big price ew is the right way to go imho. I will post the Speed figures soon as i have them i have little doubt that City of troy will come out tops but i might be surprised, either way the value is elsewhere.

[richard-westwood]

19 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

Well @richard-westwood every year O'Brien has the best thing since sliced bread how often have we heard the hype? A tactic they use to scare a few off and inflate the Stud value if it wins "see we told you"  August Rodin, Airforce Blue and little Big Bear to name 3. So ignoring the fav in favour of a big price ew is the right way to go imho. I will post the Speed figures soon as i have them i have little doubt that City of troy will come out tops but i might be surprised, either way the value is elsewhere.

I love having a go in these big races ....but I hate short priced favs ......I'd rather back a 20/1 shot Ew because the Ew returns can be better than a win bet on the fav and sometimes they actually win !!!.....so it's mainly a value hunt 

[Zilzalian]

17 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

I love having a go in these big races ....but I hate short priced favs ......I'd rather back a 20/1 shot Ew because the Ew returns can be better than a win bet on the fav and sometimes they actually win !!!.....so it's mainly a value hunt 

Yes i agree 100% it was my basic argument yesterday on the speed figures thread.

[richard-westwood]

1000 guineas

Fallen angel.  8.9 11/4 

Ylang ylang 8.6 7/2 

Porta fortuna.  8.3 25/1 

Kitty rose.  8.1 33/1 

A bit more straightforward this one ......top 2 in betting look strong and both have won at Newmarket ....porta fortuna looks an interesting horse were she to run and the ground came up on the quick side ....was last seen in breeders cup juvenile where she finished 2nd ....that's classy form but has drifted of late so that may indicate will drop out but could be the value bet if on the quick side ...the quicker the more it would suit...has also won at Newmarket  ....

Kitty rose beat content who in turn was behind porta fortuna in the above breeders cup juvenile ....so collateral lines put this one on par with porta fortuna .....so overall top two look strong with Ew value in porta fortuna and kitty rose should they run and ground is on quick side 😁

Edited April 29 by richard-westwood

[Zilzalian]

Well i have just done the figures and i have some very interesting results but wont publish them until i get my bets on when NR no bet.
@MCLARKE can you rate the 2000g? To see if we concur?

[MCLARKE]

1 minute ago, Zilzalian said:

Well i have just done the figures and i have some very interesting results but wont publish them until i get my bets on when NR no bet.
@MCLARKE can you rate the 2000g? To see if we concur?

I have DANCING GEMIINI and BALLYMOUNT BOY top rated although both have had poor runs since achieving those top numbers. On the ratings they are 7 lengths clear of City Of Troy.

[richard-westwood]

5 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

Saturday is the 2000 guineas with the 1000 following on Sunday .....of course in the 2000 guineas all eyes are on the Aiden o briens ...CITY OF TROY  who is being likened to o briens version of Frankel 

Can't argue that the horse has done everything asked so far in facile manner so it's hard to see how this horse will be beat surely but either way ....when there's a short priced fav there has to be an opportunity for value bets elsewhere so I've asked the computer to rate the current 21 entries with a view to seeing what if anything could be a potential value bet alternative bet ....these are the ratings that came back ....

City of Troy 9.2 4/6 

Henry Longfellow. 8.9. 25/1 

Haatem  8.8 25/1 

Ghostwriter.  8.6 16/1 

Rosallion.  8.5 5/1 

Interesting set of results ....computer has city of Troy clear but he has been downgraded slightly based on unknown on fast ground ....so if there is any chink in this favs armour that's possibly it if the ground goes fast as it currently is .....the horse was soooo effective on soft recording a fast time ...can he be equally effective on fast ????.....not many horses can as it requires a different action but not impossible 

If the rating holds true then Aiden o brien would get the 2nd spot too with Henry Longfellow who has quietly risen through the ranks and has generally been overlooked ....but we all know never to ignore o briens 2nd or 3rd strings as they regularly pop up when you least expect them 

Not much between haatem and ghostwriter on form ...they both look very evenly matched ....you could argue that ghostwriter just edged it with class and going if the ground comes up fast but I wouldn't like to put money on that come the day .....especially if the ground came up good as that would very much swing back in haatems favour 

And finally rosallion .....who is a lot of people's idea of an Ew horse if there is one and I can't fault the horse and he's very much an improving type .....for me there's no value in the horse at all when you compare him to the other better priced horses in the ratings ......all comes down to value really ....

Good form actually at Newmarket is a very good thing to have also ....with the undulations really not suiting many horses ....good form can realistically give you as much as 5lb bonus so based on that ......

City of Troy   won

Henry Longfellow. Unknown 

Haatem. Won 

Ghostwriter. Won 

Rosallion.  Unknown 

That would seem to strengthen the Ew value of haatem and ghostwriter and overall those two look the overall best value in the race .....nothing wrong with Henry Longfellow though .....looks prime for forecasts and tricasts I think 🤔....although it may help later today as I think declarations  have to be in today ?....so some might drop out yet ....Aiden might not even run Henry after all which would help .....just a shame only 3 places on offer for a 20 runner race currently ....that's pretty crap really ...cmon bookies 

Anyone liking any of those ??....or other thoughts ?

Wow ...7 horses dropped out but all five rated stood their ground 

[Zilzalian]

54 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

Wow ...7 horses dropped out but all five rated stood their ground 

@richard-westwood can you post a full list of your best number for each gg? My experiment being, my KR, and SW of the RP and @MCLARKE rating being speed and yours being form to see if there are correlations once the race is run.

[Zilzalian]

7 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

I have DANCING GEMIINI and BALLYMOUNT BOY top rated although both have had poor runs since achieving those top numbers. On the ratings they are 7 lengths clear of City Of Troy.

@MCLARKE Do you have a figure for Henry Longfellow?

Edited April 29 by Zilzalian
tag added

[richard-westwood]

9 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

@richard-westwood can you post a full list of your best number for each gg? My experiment being, my KR, and SW of the RP and @MCLARKE rating being speed and yours being form to see if there are correlations once the race is run.

City of Troy 9.2 4/6 

Henry Longfellow. 8.9. 25/1 

Haatem  8.8 25/1 

Ghostwriter.  8.6 16/1 

Rosallion.  8.5 5/1 

Alyannabi    8.2 

River tiber 8.2 

Task force 8.2 

Diego valzquez. 7.8 

Night raider 7.7 

Notable speech 7.5 

Ten bob tony  7.5 

Inisherin. 7.5 

Iberian  7.4 

 

[yossa6133]

3 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

I have DANCING GEMIINI and BALLYMOUNT BOY top rated although both have had poor runs since achieving those top numbers. On the ratings they are 7 lengths clear of City Of Troy.

Seems odd when City of Troy's best RPR is 124 vs 102 for Ballymount Boy!

[Zilzalian]

Well i am a bit gutted my top rated bucanero fuerte is a non runner was 66/1

[Zilzalian]

24 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

City of Troy 9.2 4/6 

Henry Longfellow. 8.9. 25/1 

Haatem  8.8 25/1 

Ghostwriter.  8.6 16/1 

Rosallion.  8.5 5/1 

Alyannabi    8.2 

River tiber 8.2 

Task force 8.2 

Diego valzquez. 7.8 

Night raider 7.7 

Notable speech 7.5 

Ten bob tony  7.5 

Inisherin. 7.5 

Iberian  7.4 

 

Thanks Richard. I have taken the decimal point out so they better align with the other ratings i am using, otherwise your ratings wouldn't have the same significance or impact when added.

[richard-westwood]

2 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

Thanks Richard. I have taken the decimal point out so they better align with the other ratings i am using, otherwise your ratings wouldn't have the same significance or impact when added.

  2 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

@richard-westwood can you post a full list of your best number for each gg? My experiment being, my KR, and SW of the RP and @MCLARKE rating being speed and yours being form to see if there are correlations once the race is run.

City of Troy 737

Henry Longfellow. 8.9. 725 

Haatem  8.8 721

Ghostwriter.  8.6 713

Rosallion.  8.5 709

Alyannabi    8.2 697

River tiber 8.2 697

Task force 8.2 697

Diego valzquez. 7.8  681

Night raider 7.7  677

Notable speech 7.5  669

Ten bob tony  7.5 669

Inisherin. 7.5 669

Iberian  7.4 665

Thats a raw rating before the computer converts it later ....it still contains all the info so would probably work better 

[Zilzalian]

44 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

  2 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

@richard-westwood can you post a full list of your best number for each gg? My experiment being, my KR, and SW of the RP and @MCLARKE rating being speed and yours being form to see if there are correlations once the race is run.

City of Troy 737

Henry Longfellow. 8.9. 725 

Haatem  8.8 721

Ghostwriter.  8.6 713

Rosallion.  8.5 709

Alyannabi    8.2 697

River tiber 8.2 697

Task force 8.2 697

Diego valzquez. 7.8  681

Night raider 7.7  677

Notable speech 7.5  669

Ten bob tony  7.5 669

Inisherin. 7.5 669

Iberian  7.4 665

Thats a raw rating before the computer converts it later ....it still contains all the info so would probably work better 

Yes i get what you are saying but the numbers in this (very high 3 figures) would drown out the other 3 ratings which are within 30 points above and  below a 100, the removal of the decimal point is sufficient for what we need and retains the integrity of the order of your list. Once we get to Thursday i will publish a table of all our ratings for comparison. A better more neutral analytical mind than mine in the shape of @harry_rag would be useful to look at all the numbers once the race has been run and we have a list of finishing positions to see if there are any usable conclusions or useful observations. We must all bear in mind this is just one race though. Interesting experiment at very least.

[harry_rag]

Much as I’d love to say I’ve got better things to do I’ll definitely give it a once over. I sometimes do similar things when looking at antepost bets on World Cups and Euros etc. where there are 2 or 3 sets of rankings. Sometimes converting them to an index works, where the top rated in an index is set at 100 and everything else the appropriate proportion. Give me the various sets of ratings and I’ll have a butchers.

[MCLARKE]

6 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

@MCLARKE Do you have a figure for Henry Longfellow?

All his races have been in Ireland so I don't have a rating

[MCLARKE]

5 hours ago, yossa6133 said:

Seems odd when City of Troy's best RPR is 124 vs 102 for Ballymount Boy!

Indeed it does. However on the day Ballymount Boy achieved its rating of 102 it ran in a quicker time than Al Husn on the same card an hour later and that was rated 116. I assume RPR takes account of more than the speed of the race.

[Zilzalian]

1 hour ago, MCLARKE said:

All his races have been in Ireland so I don't have a rating

Can you not manually work out the 3 races he has had?

[Zilzalian]

44 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

Indeed it does. However on the day Ballymount Boy achieved its rating of 102 it ran in a quicker time than Al Husn on the same card an hour later and that was rated 116. I assume RPR takes account of more than the speed of the race.

One thing i have learnt to do over the years is to ignore the RPR.

[MCLARKE]

Not really, I don't know how I would calculate the going allowance (I use the the class of the race (1 to 6) to calculate this for GB races).

[MCLARKE]

1 minute ago, Zilzalian said:

One thing i have learnt to do over the years is to ignore the RPR.

I did read somewhere that they retospectively amended it to make it look better

[Zilzalian]

2 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

Not really, I don't know how I would calculate the going allowance (I use the the class of the race (1 to 6) to calculate this for GB races).

I can see many problems with your ratings going forward from these beginnings. Although if you are planning to primarily use them for the lower grade races and all weather then i would assume it doesn't really matter.

[MCLARKE]

15 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

I can see many problems with your ratings going forward from these beginnings. Although if you are planning to primarily use them for the lower grade races and all weather then i would assume it doesn't really matter.

As part of my analysis I will be looking at the different class of races and as you say it may be that I stay clear of the top class races. Although if it keeps me clear of the            over-hyped Irish horses then maybe it's no bad thing.

[harry_rag]

9 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

Can you not manually work out the 3 races he has had?

 

9 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

Not really, I don't know how I would calculate the going allowance (I use the the class of the race (1 to 6) to calculate this for GB races).

This does seem to be an unfortunate flaw in that it means you can’t properly rate some of the biggest and best races. Obviously it’s good that your process will be largely automated for a lot of races but it would be good if you could have a quick way to come up with an indicative rating for such horses so you can fully rate the big events when you want to. It will certainly make any comparison of different people’s ratings more valuable.

I assume some of the other posters with a more flexible approach could help you come up with a viable and reasonably quick approach?

[Zilzalian]

10 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

Not really, I don't know how I would calculate the going allowance (I use the the class of the race (1 to 6) to calculate this for GB races).

Can you not rate Henry Longfellow as though its last 2 races were class 1 which they were? Or is the system more complex than that?

[richard-westwood]

Rather than start another thread I've had time to rate another Newmarket race on the card ...the will hill extra place hcap 1.45 .....not sure how many will actually run ... Currently 24 runners .....I doubt no where near that will run but after rating it .....3 horses clear of rest 

Rohaan.   8.9 12/1 ( bet 365 go 7/1!!)

Aberrama gold. 8.6 14/1 

First folio. 8.5 20/1 

Generous prices currently on offer .....there's a risk that some horses may drop out but I'll risk 5pt on all 3 as come Saturday if they run the prices could look huge 

Edited April 30 by richard-westwood

[MCLARKE]

2 hours ago, harry_rag said:

 

This does seem to be an unfortunate flaw in that it means you can’t properly rate some of the biggest and best races. Obviously it’s good that your process will be largely automated for a lot of races but it would be good if you could have a quick way to come up with an indicative rating for such horses so you can fully rate the big events when you want to. It will certainly make any comparison of different people’s ratings more valuable.

I assume some of the other posters with a more flexible approach could help you come up with a viable and reasonably quick approach?

I'm getting a bit lazy in my old age, I enjoy the analysis of my data but don't really enjoy manually inputting data which is what I would have to do for the foreign races.

[MCLARKE]

2 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

Can you not rate Henry Longfellow as though its last 2 races were class 1 which they were? Or is the system more complex than that?

To calculate the going allowance for the total card I would have to know the class adjustment for each race on the card.