UEFA Champions League > 17th - 18th August

Banega · August 16, 2010

Re: UEFA Champions League > 17th - 18th August Zenit-Auxerre Pick: Zenit at 1.70 @ Interwetten This is the last playoff round before the group stages of the Champions League. Last years number 3 in Russia faces the last years number 3 in France. ZENIT Zenit dissappointly drew 1-1 at home against Dinamo Moscow last saturday. That game was very open, and both teams could have taken the victory. Zenit gave debut to three of their newcomers; Sergey Semak, Bruno Alves and Alexandr Bukharov. Sergey Semak made a great perfomance, running a lot for the team. Bruno Alves also made a good debut. Alexandr Bukharov was a target for some critism though. He needs time to get used to a new playing style, and should maybe not have replaced the best player on the field, Alexander Kerzhakov. Even though they drew against Dinamo, they are still on the roll to become new Russian champions. They are still undefeated this season after 16 games, with 7 points down to their followers CSKA Moscow. Russian football expert, Vyacheslav Bulanov stated today that Zenit seems to have motivation problems with their domestic league, as they focus too much on the Champions League. He even means that coach Spalletti didnÂ´t play his strongest cards against Dinamo, so the Auxerre scouts wouldnÂ´t get a proper analysis of the Zenit way of play. This is just another plus to the bet, as the motivation factor always is a great advantage to have. Zenit can almost line up the strongest squad for the game. Only doubts is midfielder Igor Denisov and wing Vladimir Bystrov. Denisov is probably going to play, while it is more unsure about Bystrov as he trained for himself today. Furthermore, all four new signings, Sergey Semak, Bruno Alves, Alexandr Bukharov and Alexandr Lukovic, are registered for this playoff round. Though it is probably only Semak and Bruno Alves who will start the game. AUXERRE After the draw for this playoff round, the Auxerre coach Juan Fernandes stated that Zenit was the worst possible opponent they could draw. Some days later he mentioned that he knew Zenit was much stronger than his team and that Auxerre had very small chances of progressing to the group stages, though they will fight for it on the field. Fernandes also states that Champions League is not the main priority for the club, as they focus more on defending their impressive position from last year in Ligue 1. During the summer there have not been much transfer activity in Auxerre. They have not sold any important players, and the other way around is only the offensive player from Le Mans Anthony Le Tallec who is worth mentioning. For this game coach Didier Deschamps can play with almost strongest squad too. The only player who is out for sure is their new midfielder from Wisla Dariusz Dudka, who still faces suspension from his former club. Alexandre Licata seems to be battling with ancle problems still, and it is not sure if he is going to play. Otherwise Auxerre seems to be fielding the strongest squad for this game. CONCLUSION Zenit here is the better team, in great form. Auxerre is just back from their summerbreak, only playing 2 games in Ligue 1, drawing both versus mediocre opponents. Zenit main focus is the Champions League, while Auxerre is focusing on the French league. In this game it seems like Auxerre has nothing to lose. Their attitude towards they game is that they are big underdogs, which they indeed are in my opinion. They will get a very tough time in St.Petersburg this tuesday. The clubs official website even wrote that there is no Auxerre fans who would travel to Russia! Great support, but lets face it; Why bother coming to Russia, when your team is most likely will lose the game. In this game the quality between the teams are the most important factor, as well as the motivation factor. Zenit will risk everything to get to the group stages, while Auxerre probably wouldnÂ´t cry for days if they just make it to the EL stages. I see a comfortable home victory here, though i will play it a little safe as Zenit and especially Kerzhakov has been unlucky with their finishing lately. NOTE: This bet can also be played with -0.75 and -1.0 handicaps, but the value for a straight homewin is imo. better.

Sir Puntalot · August 16, 2010

Re: UEFA Champions League > 17th - 18th August Excellent post Banega. :clap

HastGill1 · August 16, 2010

Re: UEFA Champions League > 17th - 18th August Yep, great post..great summing up of the situation and motivations for both teams :ok, will follow poss, although I rate Russian teams about one spot above the Italian sides for reliability! Wouldnt take them in any kind of handicap bet anyway, the signing of Alves is certainly a sign of Zenit's ambition..

Banega · August 16, 2010

Re: UEFA Champions League > 17th - 18th August Thanks guys :) I usually donÂ´t like to play odds that low, rather take asian handicap then. But as you say you never know with Russian teams and handicap. I am pretty sure they will win this game, but Russian teams some time mess it up. An example is that Russia got eliminated by Slovenia(How the F### did that happen). But for this game the motivation for Zenit seems very high, and indeed they are a team capable of doing what CSKA did last year in the CL, at least.

Mahno · August 16, 2010

Re: UEFA Champions League > 17th - 18th August Price on Ajax went up to @4.00 :eek I honestly can't believe it.Is it only me or Ajax is massive value.I mean most of you tiped Ajax at @2.00 away to PAOK.I know Dynamo gave bif fight to Inter and Barca last season but i just don't trust this keeper Bojko.Last Saturday Vorskla showed Dynamo's weak sides and beat them 3-1.If Vorskla could do it why not Ajax? Fcukt it i'm taking Ajax to win @4.00 with small stake Vorskla 3-1 Dynamo Highlights http://video.yandex.ru/users/ezhihno/view/208/#hq Shev and yarmolenko didn't play in this match.

Lazy A-- · August 16, 2010

Re: UEFA Champions League > 17th - 18th August For those who are interested in getting involved in Partizan-Anderlecht let's analyze Partizan's positions from this year and the last few years. Goalie before: Bozovic. A quality gk, secure, does like to stay on the goal line a lot but overall quite safe option on the goal. Sold to some Romanian club I believe. Goalie now: Ilic. Old. Prone to mistakes. "Exhibitionist", loves to walk away from the goal and does crazy moves. Able to save some good chances, but normally he is a 'hole' on the goal and can concede the most ridiculous goals. Arrived from pathetic Borac Cacak for peanuts. Left, right-backs before: Knezevic and Lomic. Very reliable and strong defender, also able to play as a centre-back. Disappeared for no reason. Second one sold as soon as an offer was available for him. Left, right-backs now: Lazevski, a guy who is slow and not gifted at all. Defensively, he is pathetic, often lost in space not knowing where the ball is. Kizito, a guy from Uganda or something. Might have some quality, but physically very weak and currently long-term injured. Stevanovic, pathetic player who was kicked out from Sochaux where he was on a loan. Can't send a single decent cross. Dying after 15 mins of the game. Huge hole on the right side. Centre-backs before: Djordjevic and Krstajic. Djordjevic mysteriously kicked out of Partizan's team. He was actually a team captain. Very good in defense, a bit old, also taking many free kicks quite well and also dangerous with headers after corner kicks. Centre-backs now: Jovanovic and Krstajic. As you can see, Krstajic is the only good player you all probably know, but he is not getting any younger and his great experience can be quite handy against teams like HJK or Pyunik, but against Anderlecht's quality players, he will struggle bit time I'm sure. Jovanovic and his replacement Stankovic are horrible defenders, slow and clumsy, also totally inexperienced. But some manager requested them to be forced in the starting lineup even at a price of releasing the long-term team captain, much better than both Stankovic and Jovanovic combined. Midfielders before: Moreira, Tomic, Petrovic, Fejsa, Davidov, Ilic. Of those 5 guys, only Moreira and Sasa Ilic have experience and despite the old age, they are also the only ones having quality. Petrovic is a tree, a very slow guy, who can't play decent footie due to his natural inability to move well on the field, but he has got strong back and has got to play even for the NT, where he was by the way one of the biggest jokes in the entire squad. Kind of like a black sheep. The media are always sending him to big clubs like Birmingham, West Ham, Osasuna, Zaragoza, Fiorentina, where else I don't even remember... yet he is still there, being useless and his managers frustrated. Fejsa is the same exact case, except he is injured now, so let's skip that part. Davidov also came from the same corrupted club Hajduk Kula as Fejsa, and he is 'supposed' to replace Moreira, but the guy doesn't know the football basics and all he knows is to kick the ball hard. Not much of a player you have to admit. Tomic, probably even bigger 'back' than Petrovic, I hardly see anyone buying him in the near future. So selfish, has a good shot, but nothing else, loves to dribble but is inferior to more quality players. Typical material for Russian 2nd league. Midfielders now: All the same plus Smiljanic and Babovic who signed recently. When we know that the key player Moreira is doubtful for this game, and Babovic and Smiljanic, who are like 25 years old and had to come back to Serbia from some Feyenoord and Espanyol cause they were no longer wanted there, I think we will hardly see any quality in that line of Partizan. Attack before: Ilic, Cleo, Diarra, Washington. Diarra stayed in Partizan for longer than 2 seasons which is unusual for foreigners, who come here just to get sold for more money, but he was so bad nobody wanted to buy him despite the fact he scored a bunch of easy goals which made him such a great striker on our grassy fields around Serbian villages, and finally some Arabs decided to take him on a loan. He of course couldn't wait. Brana Ilic was a winger, offensive-oriented, he moved to Vojvodina. Was small but chubby, bulky kind, he is better than the new acquisitions surely, but some business deal with him obviously didn't work out, so he was sent away. Washington, a 2meter tree Brazilian with afro haircut played for 300eur a month, and I have to say even that salary was too much for him and his manager. Luckily they decided to replace him with some domestic tree from the paragraph below. Attack now: Iliev, Cleo, Mijic, Bogunovic, Scepovic, Galesic. Now all these players except old Partizan's player Iliev were brought for peanuts (now counting Cleo who is there from before). Bogunovic played cca 2 minutes in the last year's season in Cadiz, who relegated to Spanish 3rd league where he was on the loan from Partizan. And he is supposed to be one of the better players in Partizan's attack. Scepovic is some Montenegrin kid supposed to be a great talent from Partizan's youth team but so far he has been impotent and quite bad. But let's give him time, maybe he becomes a world-class striker in Serbian domestic league and gets sold to Genclerbirligi. Cleo is a good player, but not too fast and talented, still seems like he developed his game for these 3 years in Serbia and from 1-10 I would give him a 5. Not even close to be enough against a team like Anderlecht. Ivica Iliev, experience but lack of physical condition, however, it's a good move to have him there, he was brought to the squad only when the board realized Partizan will not be eliminated from Europe, which was their plan before the start of the season considering the team they had created. Probably made a cheap deal with their former player. To conclude, Partizan's team is weaker this season. Has bad players in all lines of the team, especially on goal, defense, and midfield. Let's say they don't have bad players in the attack if only Cleo and Iliev will be playing. Then I can honestly say Partizan has 4 or 5 players who are near to be on Anderlecht's quality level. 4 Partizan's players against 11 Anderlecht's, well you try to conclude. Maybe the fans will make up for the remaining 6-7 players, one can never know.

croato · August 16, 2010

Re: UEFA Champions League > 17th - 18th August While I was reading these posts about Anderlecht I thought that you were talking about Barcelona :lol:lol:lol:lol.... come on guys let"s be serious Anderlecht is not that strong, I watched them last year in Zagreb I could not believe how they were poor, I supose that this year they are not much stronger than the last one!Without Biglia and De Sutter and with Lukaku out of form I strongly believe that they can only grab a draw!!

MrMal · August 16, 2010

Re: UEFA Champions League > 17th - 18th August Young Lads v Spurs Purely on form and their respective leagues you would have to side with the away side. But this is a cup match and YB have shown they can get results when it matters. I don't think they could repeat the away result they had against Fenerbahce next week, so they will need to get a good result on Tuesday. One thing that is putting me off going for the away win is of course the odds 1.72 on PaddyPower and Betfair, which is a bit stingy. After Spurs performance on Saturday, it could be a landslide if they keep that form up. But I don't think there is a need to go all out at this early stage of the tie. Been looking at other markets apart from the outright and found the Team Corners per half. Spurs to get 3 or more first half corners @1.9 (8/10) Spurs to get 4 or more second half corners @2.25 (6/10) Both PaddyPower With Bale on the left and Lennon on the right, you know they are going to be coming down the wings from a lot of their play which should enhance the bet as long as YB know how to defend. Another bit of a value punt is for the wincast. Huddlestone had quite a few shots on Saturday and will look to keep that kind of play going, so I will punt on him scoring in 90 mins combined with the Spurs win which is available on PaddyPower @ 8.00 for the Wincast (5/10).

secomento · August 16, 2010

Re: UEFA Champions League > 17th - 18th August Zenit is the formest team in Russia and their attack force is better than French team.In last 5 league matches Zenit had scored at least 2 goals until their last match against D. Moscow.I think that Russian team will score at least 2 goals.Odds for Home 1.5 over is value enough.... Home over 1.5 @ 2.oo Sportingbet

nicko · August 16, 2010

Re: UEFA Champions League > 17th - 18th August Any game with Ajax involved with odds for Over 2,5 Goals above evens has to be considered for a bet with medium or higher stake. Mahno added further confidence to my pick, at 2,05 with bet365. Kiyv are also very potent forward and anything lower than 3 Goals will be disappointing. I also consider Overs in Belgrade and Basel - with Spurs I will wait for the game on the in-play as I need a fraction higher. I think the bookies might have a heavy night on the Over market, I really do not see a goalless game in this round...

AGurv · August 17, 2010

Re: UEFA Champions League > 17th - 18th August UEFA Competitions 2010-2011 1-4-1 -3.56 units (20.00%) Zenit -163 to win 1 unit Just gonna pull the trigger on this one. As far as history goes, the Unirea game was the first CL game Zenit has ever won at home. But anyway Zenit is in mid-season form and dominating the Russian league. They play a wide open game and average nearly 2 goals a game in the RPL. Auxerre is just getting start and they have played poorly so far, drawing against 2 opponents they should have beaten. Ajax +0.5 -118 to win 1 unit A pretty solid road team actually. They put up 3 goals against PAOK a couple weeks ago to help them advance. They only lost 3 games all year on the road last year in league play. Dynamo's starting GK is also out for what looks like to be the remainder of the year, which should certainly help Ajax.

againstallodds · August 17, 2010

Re: UEFA Champions League > 17th - 18th August ZENIT PETERSBURG V.S. AUXERRE - ZENIT PETERSBURG -0.75 @ 1.78 LADBROKES It is pretty obvious that Zenit will take this by its neck. Zenit has been unbeaten in their own Russian League while Auxerre is currently in 12th place of the French Ligue. I think Auxerre's priority should be in French Ligue, rather than competing in the Champions League. YOUNG BOYS V.S. TOTTENHAM - SPURS -0.5 @ 1.76 LADBROKES I think the name itself will probably tell you much about Spur's opposition. Tottenham Hotspurs will be roaring to beat Young Boys from minute 1. This is their chance to shine on the European platform, and i will really doubt Young Boys being capable of handling Spurs. Man City did it with a performing Joe Hart but, the question is, are the Young Boys capable of handling the fast pace passing that is not often seen in the Swiss League? I doubt so. DINAMO KIEV V.S. AJAX - AJAX +0.5 @ 1.88 LADBROKES Totally fair odds for me. Ajax are not that lousy. Defensively they may be weak, allowing Paok to score 2 goals at the end of their last CL game.But they can score goals and boy, dont mess around with Suarez.I really doubt that this is an easy game for Dinamo Kiev. This is a pretty even fixture with both teams having the capability to score so i am hoping for a draw.

freddy06 · August 17, 2010