Monte's Specialisation - Manity Saintained (+335pts)

[Stevet1859]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Maintaining Sanity (+230pts) Going great Monte :clap

[Monterosso]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Maintaining Sanity (+230pts) Cheers bud, appreciate it. :ok ----------------------------------- 3:35 Epsom - Right Step - 3pts @ 9/1 (WillHill) First off, a lack of pace in this 1m 2f contest has to be a worry but if it is a steady gallop, it's likely to hinder the majority of this field from what I can see. Regardless of what could happen, I'm going to side with Right Step to bounce back to form, as he comes here on the back of a couple of awful efforts, both over 1m 4f at York. Those performances weren't his true running at all (plenty of excuses to be found) and on both occasions, he wasn't given a hard race once beaten. A return to his best would see his price-tag of 9/1 look a bit silly, but whether or not he will produce his best is another thing. The drop back to this trip is a big positive for Right Step and he's now getting some leeway from the handicapper, which hasn't been the case for a long time. Today, he runs off 94 and the race before his pair of flops was a Listed H'cap in which he came home in 4th place off a mark of 100 (hated the ground) - having reached that mark on the back of 4 consecutive 2nd place finishes which saw him rise 12lbs in the ratings, testament to his usual consistency despite racing in very good handicaps. One of those seconds was over this C&D, in which Alan Jarvis' 4 year old colt just found Resurge to be too good, and that's a horse who always saves his best for this track. That was off a 3lb higher mark (97) in a C2 H'cap and a replication of that run would surely see Jarvis' charge go close here, although he had a sound gallop to run after that day. Other pieces of form give Right Step every chance of getting involved here and today he's dropping down to C3 level for the first time in a long time, which is another plus. Right Step is clearly the class horse of the race and having had no less than 6 seconds from his 19 career outings (only win in a maiden at 2), he's due a bit of luck. Alan Jarvis has his yard in very good form of late and today he sees fit to book Jamie Spencer for what will be his first ride on this fellow. That's an interesting move, as Spencer - who has a 15% SR for Jarvis - hasn't ridden for him since 2008 and both of the horses previous jockeys are going to Epsom today. Spencer seems like the ideal partner for this horse and I'm convinced that he'll be able to get the best of him, it's just a case of whether he's hindered by how the race will be run. The ground is perfect if it is as listed (good) and the track holds no problems, so I fail to see how he's deemed to be a 9/1 shot. One firm go 11/2 and that'd be more reflective of his chances, although I can find reasons to believe he should be shorter again. The opposition are no great shakes either and the Godolphin horse, Con Artist, would be the one I'm most afraid of. It's impossible to weigh up his chances after something seemed to be wrong with him when last seen (tailed off in May; sent off 7/2 fav), but potentially, he's quite useful if back on song. Regardless, he's a much riskier proposition and looks under-priced, despite being a progressive type in 2010. Right Step looks to be the one to side with and having had 5 weeks off, he will hopefully come back here and prove capable of giving his best. He hasn't been over-raced this season either and surely deserves to get his head in front again (not that that matters). Medium win stakes for me, as I think the price is very wrong but it's still a bet with plenty of risks, so who knows how it'll go.

[Monterosso]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Maintaining Sanity (+230pts) Final one. 3:20 Musselburgh - Cara's Request - 2pts @ 12/1 (Bet365) This is the time of year when everything can fall into place for Cara's Request and although he comes here with the look of a horse badly out of form, I feel that the form is very deceptive. Dandy Nicholls now has a very well handicapped animal on his hands and it's mainly down to running his 6 year old over trips and tracks that just don't suit him. In a total of 7 starts this season, only once has he run over 7f around a bend (at track that isn't overly suitable) and that's when he's seen to his best, not least when it's at these sharp, front-runner favouring tracks. The one time he did, he was rated 84 and that's a tough mark for him to win off anyway but to make it worse, he was waited with behind the leaders - which results in instant defeat. Today, everything is right apart from the ground, as Cara's Request would prefer plenty of ease in the ground but I'll take my chances as he's now back at a track where he can be favoured by how things will be run. Last year - during a spell in which he ran 7 times between the end of August and the beginning of November - this exceptionally quick, trailblazing front-runner won 4 handicaps (66, 72, 75 & 80) and placed twice. The only time he wasn't in the places was over the straight 7f at Leicester, although he wasn't beaten far then. All of his wins were over 7f around a bend and he also took this race in the process when making all to win off a 3lb lower mark. He's effectively 8lbs higher now, as he had a 5lb claimer on board but still went on to win off this mark and 5lbs higher with today's jockey - Adrian Nicholls - on board. He has only been on board once this season - over the straight mile at Redcar on fast ground in June (hadn't a hope) - and it's a definite plus to see him get the leg up again, mainly because he gets on so well with the horse. Adrian's record on board reads 3 wins, a second, a third and a fourth from just 10 rides and it's clear that he gets the best out of this relatively tricky animal. Last time out, Cara's Request was dropped back to 6f to contest the Ayr Bronze Cup. He was available at 25/1 the night before but eventually went off as an exceptionally well-backed 8/1 second favourite. I opposed him that day, mainly down to the trip and track being against him. In the end, he performed badly but couldn't even lead and that just doesn't suit this free-going animal. Today, he's back to 7f, back at a sharp track and back with his regular winning jockey on board, all of which bode well for his chances. The opposition don't look overly brilliant either. He should be able to dominate this 10 runner field and if they give him too much rope up front (assuming he's sent on; if not, he won't win), another victory could be achieved despite the ground not being 100% ideal. Cara's Request has won on quicker surfaces before but cut does make a big difference, so any unlikely rain would be a huge plus to his chances. I find it hard to read Dandy's intentions, as he could well wait for another day with this horse, possibly when the ground comes in his favour. It's still likely that he'll be trying and he also drops back into a 0-80 Handicap for the first time since his last victory, so there's plenty going for the horse. This is definitely one to follow over the coming weeks and today I'll play small win stakes. It may not be the day that he'll win (backing him more in hope than expectation) but I'm convinced this horse will be making all of the running to win a race soon enough. He's too well handicapped not to win at least one and this is his time of year.

[south_eastern_ram]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Maintaining Sanity (+230pts) Agree with Cara's Request, more money for him today suggests a win is on its way. Hopefully it's not you moving the market this time and connections are piling on :lol

[Monterosso]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Maintaining Sanity (+230pts) He'll win soon, I'm 100% sure. :hope ---------------------------------- Another blank on the last day of posting. Regardless, Cara's Request did shape very well and definitely looks capable of winning soon, especially when the softer ground comes out to play. He was well backed into 13/2 from 12's and showed bright pace as usual before feeling the ground in the closing stages. I thought he stuck at it quite well and was only beaten by about 5 lengths, which isn't bad considering he's so much better on slower ground. Keep an eye on him, he'll be winning before too long. Right Step was also well backed and sent off as a 9/2 shot. However, they crawled early on and the race turned into a sprint, which was always a worry. That doesn't suit him at all and he ended up disappointing. There's a nice race in him some day and I'll be keeping him on side whenever he has his conditions. -5.00pts on the day. Short write-ups again. 2:20 Ascot - Azameera - 2pts @ 7/1 (Ladbrokes) The betting suggests this is a wide open contest but with the early pace likely to be slow, plenty of the field will be unsuited by how this race pans out. Backing those towards the front end could pay dividends and Azameera looks to be the one to side with. There is a risk that her free-going ways get the better of her - as she can often take quite a keen hold - but she has won in muddling affairs before and possesses all the traits you want from a horse running in a race like this. Clive Cox's 3 year old filly has only run on 6 occasions, winning a maiden and a pair of handicaps off marks of 78 (7f Leicester) & 86 (8f Salisbury). She pulled hard on both occasions but won in the style of a very useful horse in each, suggesting that there's a fair amount more to come from her when she matures mentally. Today, Azameera runs off a mark of 89 and that's sure to be a mark she can defy in time, whether or not today will be the day is the question. Hopefully 'yes' is the answer! Last time out - at this course over a mile - Cox's charge ran a solid 2½ length 4th of 12 in a fairly good fillies' race (simplistic form is good). That run was on the back of a 2 month lay off and she shaped as if needing it. Along with that, she hit the front about 2f out and she seems better when running down the leaders late on, rather than being the one up top waiting for the closers to come at her. It's quite hard to know what's right or wrong in that situation but if she can be held onto for longer here, I expect that she'll be finishing off as well as anything in the field. Clive Cox has his yard in good knick and comes here with just this runner. Adam Kirby - 3 from 5 on board her - has just one ride too before heading off to Wolverhampton for a near full book of rides and I doubt he's coming down for the good of his health. The pair are doing well of late, with 3 winners and a couple of places from their last 10 runners and Azameera looks capable of adding another win to the slate. The ground will suit, the track suits and the race will be run to suit, so a price of 7/1 looks a bit too big. I think she'll definitely run a good race (bar disaster) but some of the opposition are useful and therefore I'll just play small win stakes. Hopefully she'll go well.

[Monterosso]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Maintaining Sanity (+230pts) Ugh, Azameera certainly wasn't ridden to be seen at her best - she ended up coming 3rd. Early one for tomorrow. Back with reasoning later. 3:50 Ascot - Eton Forever - 3pts @ 9/1 (Boylesports)

[Monterosso]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Maintaining Sanity (+230pts) Azameera ran another good race but could only manage 3rd place in the end. She was ridden with more restraint this time, possibly in an attempt to settle her (didn't work) and that was her undoing. Had she raced closer to the (slow) pace from the off, I'm sure she'd of given the winner a lot more to think about (ran on well closing stages; too late) but it was a good effort nonetheless and she remains of interest for the future - as her current rating is one that she's going improve past in no time. -2.00pts on the day. Plenty of bets to be had today so I'll be keep it fairly short and sweet. 2:05 Ascot - Caledonia Lady - 3pts @ 5/1 (Bet365) 16 runners are set to go to post for this flying 5 furlong Group 3 contest and Caledonia Lady looks to be the best bet if she can put it all together again. Jo Hughes' speedy filly comes here on the back of an impressive Listed win at Ayr and despite winning it in a ready fashion, the effort can be marked up a fair bit considering how much ground she made up having missed the kick at the start. The course was very favourable to those on the front end that day and I feel she showed an ocean of class to win in the style that she did. The opposition were no great shakes but Caledonia Lady won as she liked on the good-to-soft ground and today's quicker ground will suit even more. Her previous efforts also show how classy she is, as she has a couple of placed efforts to her name over this trip at Group 2 level (I'm ignoring her 6f form - 5f is her trip). She was only beaten a ¼ of a length (3rd) behind Best Terms in the Queen Mary Stakes over C&D on what was her second career outing and she was sent off at monstrous odds of 100/1 that day. She was rattling home from the rear on that occasion in yet another race where those at the front came out on top and she came out of that race with a hell of a lot of credit. Caledonia Lady's penultimate start - her first over 5f since that 3rd over C&D - was at Doncaster in the Flying Childers Stakes and yet again, she was flying towards the end and just couldn't get up. That was another brilliant effort and a repeat of it would surely see her go very close here, unless something is capable of progressing past her - which I doubt. This stiffer track will help and having finally broken her maiden tag last time out, there's every chance that she'll prove capable of following up with another win. The race will be run to suit and there should be no excuses if she doesn't run a big race here. She's the form pick, the best horse in the race and the one to be on at 5/1 (should be no bigger than 3's). Medium win stakes for me and hopefully she'll run a big race.

[Monterosso]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Maintaining Sanity (+230pts) 3:50 Ascot - Eton Forever - 3pts @ 9/1 (Boylesports) No fewer than 18 runners line up in an attempt to win this £93,375 prize and Eton Forever looks worthy of taking a chance on now that Roger Varian has dropped his 4 year old back to 7f. That looks like a very interesting move and it could well pay dividends for this strong-travelling sort, assuming the likely solid pace comes to fruition. Usually this race is dominated by the middle drawn horses and a sit in stall 1 may not be ideal but there seems to be enough pace around the lowers numbers to suggest that it won't be a disadvantage - hopefully that's the case. I backed Eton Forever on his last outing, in which he finished a 1½ length 2nd to Man Of Action after being backed into 9/4 favourite from 5/1 the night before. However, worries about a lack of pace in the race came to the fore and Varian's charge did exceptionally well to finish where he did considering that just doesn't suit. The race turned into a very short sprint for home and having taken it up around a furlong from home, my selection was mowed down in the closing stages by the fast-finishing Godolphin horse - one who has a superior turn of foot when races pan out like that. That's a great effort to come here on the back of and Eton Forever should strip better for it, as that was his first outing in 3 months. He is one that goes well fresh but should have no problem with this 3 week turnaround. The ground has come up right for him, as I feel he is a proper fast ground animal and that will help him significantly in his attempt to defy a mark of 103 in such a competitive handicap. He is a full 11lbs higher than when landing the Spring Cup at Doncaster (1m) in April but the manner in which he won that suggested he's a Group horse in waiting and I think that'll eventually prove to be the case. Eton Forever is not handicapped out of this at all (usually need a classy sort nowadays) and just needs to be able to mow down a solid pace in order to be seen at his best - and that seems likely here. The relatively stiff track will suit and the drop in trip is something that could unlock any amount of improvement, as he's not void of speed, nor a turn of foot when things are right. Varian's yard are going great guns of late, with 10 of their last 40 runners entering the winners enclosure and a further 10 running into a place. There's no better time to catch some of his animals and he will hopefully gain his second ever Ascot winner here. Neil Callan's doing well of late too but his poor course record would have to be a bit of a worry, as he's 6 from 114 at the course in the past 5 years. Regardless, if the horse is good enough and has things run to suit, he'll go well anyway. 9/1 looks a bit generous (6's would be fair) and I'll play medium win stakes again. It'll be tough for him to win but he's capable of doing so.

[Monterosso]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Maintaining Sanity (+230pts) 4:25 Ascot - Jimmy Styles - 2pts @ 8/1 (Bet365) Clive Cox sure has a hard time trying to place Jimmy Styles, as he's too high in the ratings to win handicaps and he's just not good enough for Group races. However, he's now dropped back to the bare 5f for the first time in Britain and it could well pay dividends for this talented animal, especially as he'll have his desired very strong pace to run at. He has the pace for the trip and his only previous run over it (in Meydan) ended in a fast-finishing 2¼ length 6th from what was an impossible draw (also first run after a break). Jimmy Styles has form to turn around with a few of these from his last outing, which was in the Portland Handicap run over 5½f at Doncaster. However, he was flashing home late on that occasion (denied clear run) and only ended up being beaten by 1½ lengths off top-weight in the 21 runner affair. He would of finished even closer if he got a smooth passage and it's a good run to come here on the back of. The form with those rivals can be turned around here as he's running on better terms with all of them and the trip/track combination could pull out even more. Jimmy Styles officially the second best off at the ratings here (albeit not by much as he carries a 3lb penalty) and the fairly stiff 5f at a track where he has went well before should help to see him at his best. It's interesting that Kieren Fallon is booked for the ride (Kirby must be banned) and he seems like the ideal partner for a horse who needs to get into a nice rhythm in order to get involved. Fallon has previous experience of this animal, having been on board out in Meydan but things didn't pan out to suit on that occasions, so hopefully it's second time lucky. Plenty of useful types line up in opposition but Clive Cox's charge could bring home the money if he's on song over this new trip. 8/1 looks like a decent price about him and I'll have a small win bet. Addictive Dream (10/1) lines out again and I'm having a small saver on him just in case, as it'd be typical that he'd win when I wouldn't be on.

[Monterosso]

3:00 Newmarket - Hazaz - 1pt e/w @ 50/1 (StanJames) Taking a bit of a wild punt here, as the market and jockey bookings suggest that Hazaz is the second choice of Clive Brittain's pair of runners here. However, he looks to be wildly overpriced because of that and could still run a good race in an attempt to land the £270,000 prize in this 7f Sales race. Some Group horses line up in opposition so he will have to step up markedly on previous efforts just to make the frame but it's not beyond him and I get the impression that this animal has a hell of a lot left in the locker, now he just needs to show it on the course. Last time out - over C&D - Hazaz was in the process of running a cracking race in a slightly less competitive sales race before a combination of inexperience and the lack of a recent run took its toll on him. He was actually travelling as well as anything with just over a couple of furlongs to go and it wasn't until he ran into the dip that he began to come under pressure from Tom Queally (on board 9/1 stablemate today). Brittain's charge traded at 3.30 in the run and really looked like he'd get involved in the finish before he dropped out of contention - eventually trailing home 8½ lengths off the pace in 10th (of 16). Today, Hazaz is priced up based on that run but it was his first for over 10 weeks and he may well have needed it. Assuming it brings him on, he should be able to finish off his race a lot better today if he can travel with the same fluency as before. He should also handle the dip a lot better today having previously experienced it on the Rowley Mile and that's another positive. The ground has come up right for him, as he seems like a quick ground animal and this son of the excellent Dubawi has a lot more to come. He's likely to be the type to improve with his racing and this will be his fourth outing (shaped well first time out, ran very good 2nd second time out; both in June). Clive Brittain has his 2 year old's in much better form of late, with 8 winners from 41 runners in the past couple of months, so it's time to keep an eye on his runners after what was a very poor season. Tom McLaughlin is the man on board today and he has only ever ridden on one occasion for Brittain and owner Saeed Manana - that ended in victory (10/1 shot) in one of these sales races at this track. I don't really know a whole pile about him but he's decent from what I remember from my time punting on the all-weather tracks and hopefully he'll give a good ride to the potentially useful Hazaz. 50/1 is just much too big for a horse who does have ability and if he can put it all in, I'm hopeful that he can run a big race in this company. Whether or not he needs an easier track (and possibly further) is up for debate but I'll take my chances with a small each-way bet. There's some nice, lowly Group horses lining up but nothing spectacular and this fellow could give them a run for their money. It's obviously a risky bet but it's worth taking a chance on. His stablemate (a 165,000gns purchase as a foal) - Miblish - holds fancy entries and is sure to have more to come, but the price just doesn't appeal to me. He could be up to winning this, but so could Hazaz if it all comes together, and hopefully it will.

[Monterosso]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Maintaining Sanity (+230pts) No luck. Caledonia Lady wasn't best placed in her race and ran on into 3rd when it was all too late. I don't think she'd of beaten the winner regardless of what happened but she would of been closer at least. It was a solid run, albeit one you'd expect from a filly who was best in at the weights. Jimmy Styles was never really going at all and although I thought he had the speed for 5f, that's obviously not the case. He ran on a bit at the end but never came close to even looking likely to get involved. Disappointing result but in hindsight it wasn't my smartest selection this year. I had a small saver on a horse I've backed numerous times, Addictive Dream, and he finished 2nd, just beaten by a short-head. He's such an unlucky horse and hopefully he'll get compensation sometime. It was a cracking effort for him over a trip shy of his optimum. Hazaz ran a decent race to finish in mid-division in the big sales race but again he didn't look happy on the track when push came to shove. There's more to come from him when he tackles a less demanding course and a drop into weaker contests wouldn't go astray either. He's got plenty of talent, just not enough to cut it with some of the better juveniles. Solid effort all things considered. Eton Forever was a non-runner. -7.00pts on the day. Poor start to the month, hopefully it'll change around. Just one bet today. Prix de L'Arc de Triomphe 3:15 Longchamp - Workforce - 3pts @ 10/1 (WillHill) 16 runners are set to line up for this brilliant Group 1 contest and the lack of any truly outstanding 3-year-old's lead me to believe that recent trends of Classic generation dominance could be bucked here. No fewer than 16 3-year-old's have landed this race since 1990 and they've won 7 of the last 10 running's, with a further 9 places from a total of 66 runners in that time. 4-year-old's have only managed 2 winners and 6 places from 55 runners in the same time-frame, mainly down to the difficulty of giving away weight to the younger horses. That could all change here though, as I'm just not taken by the Classic generation representatives today and I'm hopeful that one of the older animals is going to score, preferably my selection! The one that I'm interested in is obviously my old favourite - and last years winner - Workforce. Sir Michael Stoute's 4 year old would have to break the trend that has seen no horse land this race in successive years since Alleged won it (at 3 & 4) back in 1978 & 1979, although I'm not sure how many have reappeared the next year and I can't imagine it being very many. Only 2 of the previous years winners - in the past 10 years - have run in the race the following year, with both finishing in 3rd position. I still wouldn't pay too much heed to any statistic but they're interesting at the same time. Workforce comes here on the back of having run in the King George at Ascot on July 23rd, the same race in which he flopped in before lining out to win this race on his next course outing last year. Things went a lot better for Stoute's charge this year but he could only manage to come 2¾ lengths behind the brilliant John Gosden trained Nathaniel - a well-built 3 year old to whom he was conceding 12lbs due to the weight-for-age allowance at that time of year. The bare result doesn't tell the whole story as Stoute's exceptionally impressive 2010 Derby winner threw away his chance by hanging across the course under pressure. It seems as if he was feeling something but I don't think the race was ideal for him anyway, as it was quite farcical in how it was run. That was Workforce's second run in a few weeks and I'd imagine he's on that's best caught relatively fresh, as he showed when becoming the first horse in God knows who long to win this race without having a run within the last 50 days. He comes here on the back of the exact same time off the course and hopefully that'll lead to him showing his best form again. Form with So You Think will have to be turned around, as my selection for today's race faced off with the New Zealand bred Ballydoyle superstar in the Coral-Eclipse at Sandown (on penultimate start). However, that was over 10f and Workforce still managed to come a half-length behind over a trip that is a quarter-of-a-mile below his optimum. I expect that he's got the beating of that horse over this trip and their respective prices in the market is all wrong (5/1 vs 10/1). Another positive for Workforce is that he gets to race in a big-field for the first time this year. He's 3 from 3 in races where there's big fields (12, 12 & 19), as this gives him the chance to be buried in towards the rear of the pack with plenty of cover, something he hasn't had a chance of doing this year. With the pace being likely to be strong and 15 other rivals to get in amongst, I imagine that he'll have everything run to suit today at a track that we know he handles. Doubts over the ground have arisen, as he certainly doesn't want it too fast (despite winning the Derby on good-to-firm in record time) but today's conditions shouldn't hinder his chances as it seems likely that it'll be nice racing ground - not too quick, not too slow (although it'll be listed as good-to-soft it seems). A bit of rain wouldn't go astray though. With regards to the draw, Workforce will be coming out of stall 8, the same one he raced out of on route to winning this last year. It seems as if you want to be drawn in the lower half to have any chance and he has fared well in that regard. Obviously, in a race of this nature, the opposition have to be feared. Sarafina and So You Think are currently battling it out for favouritism at around the 5/1 mark. The former was obviously an unlucky loser when being mauled by a weakening horse in this last year but I can't for one second believe that she is fairly priced at 5/1 when you consider how tough it'll be for her to win from a sit in stall 13. Similar comments can apply to the latter, as he's one stall up for her in 14. I also don't think that he would win anyway unless they went very slow, which seems unlikely. 1m 4f in a truly run race may just catch So You Think out and despite his obvious talent, he's up against it here. That's not saying he can't win, I just don't think he will. Snow Fairy isn't without a chance but is she good enough? I wouldn't think so. She could run into a place but at 14/1, I wouldn't be overly keen to back her. Freddie Head's Galikova is the most prominent in the market of the 3-year-old's but I'd much prefer to back a horse with some big-field experience and she's never raced in anything with more than 9 runners in her 7 race career. She's obviously talented and could love this different test, but 8/1 isn't a price that's tempting enough. Similar comments apply to 14/1 shot Meandre, as all bar his first career start have come in small fields. I'd also question how good he is, as his Group 1 win came about by beating Seville into second, something that most horses seem capable of! He has been supplemented by his brilliant trainer and should run a good race, but he's too risky for me. Workforce is the one I'll take a chance on, as I feel he's overpriced at 10/1 and should have everything in place to run his race. The Stoute yard haven't had a good season at all but this would be a lovely way for them to turn around all of the misfortune that they've had. Ryan Moore also comes back to the saddle after injury and there'd be no better way for him to come back than by being victorious in this race for the second time in as many years. Hopefully it'll all come to fruition and I'll play medium win stakes in the hope that this brilliant colt can show his best form to buck all of the trends that are against him. He owes me nothing having backed him in this at 6/1 last year but I'm quietly confident that a repeat performance could be in the offing before he heads off for a well-deserved career at stud.

[Monterosso]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Maintaining Sanity (+230pts) All wrong about Workforce, although he hardly got the rub of the green. Relatively correct about the rest I mentioned. Didn't even consider the first two. Brilliant. -3.00pts on the day. Very, very short write-ups today. Have to be up for a remembrance mass in the morning - woohoo. 3:10 Newmarket - Red Duke - 1pt @ 14/1 (Bet365) John Quinn looks to have a future Group 1 winner on his hands in the form of Red Duke and his talented juvenile can give Tom Eaves his second win at the top level in the space of a week. Things will have to be run very much to suit, as this fellow definitely wants a strong gallop to run after but that does look likely to occur here. He was beaten last twice in races that hadn't went his way but previous to that he was a nice winner over this trip on the July course. It seems as if a stiff test is needed for an animal who looks sure to excel over further than this trip and the return to Newmarket is no bad thing at all. I have my doubts about many of the market leaders and John Quinn's charge looks a bit overpriced at 14/1. Small win bet for me and hopefully he'll have things to his liking. 3:50 Newmarket - Sentry Duty - 1pt e/w @ 14/1 (Bet365, 5 places) Nicky Henderson has managed 2 winners and a second from just 6 runners in this race (in past decade) and he looks likely to have another good chance with the 9 year old Sentry Duty. A low draw is always a plus in this race, despite the marathon 2m 2f trip, and Henderson's charge has a lovely sit in stall 1 - assuming he can get a nice position from it. Whilst his exploits on the flat haven't been great this year, he was a creditable 6th of 32 in this race last year (off 5lb higher) when things didn't work out (mainly down to a poor ride). He returns to Newmarket as a potentially well-treated horse and could add to his 7 previous flat wins, of which only one was in this country - at this track over half-a-mile shorter. Johnny Murtagh being on board is another positive and the horse should have no issue with the ground. 14/1 is hardly an outstanding price in this race but he's worth a small each-way bet and should be there or thereabouts if all goes well. 2:20 York - Solemn - 1pt e/w @ 20/1 (PaddyPower, 4 places) Tough race to get to grips with but Solemn could be a lively contender now that he's dropping back to C4 company off what is his last winning mark. Milton Bradley's trailblazing 6 year old comes here as a seemingly out-of-form animal but he was forced to race in tough contests after hitting some very good form between May & June, resulting in a 10lb hike in the weights after a couple of wins (Newmarket (80) & Nottingham (84) on fast ground). I'm not convinced the stiffer tracks suit him all that much and a more speed testing race at York could be what he's after, although I've no previous course efforts to go on as this is his first run here on what will be his 40th race on turf. His trainer is making a 400+ mile round trip to run him though (only runner) and rarely ever visits this track nowadays (first runner since October '09, which was his first since '07; won this in '05). It'll be a tough race to win but the horse is useful when he's on a going day and could get involved here in a race that's likely to be run at a very strong gallop. There is a chance that he could completely bomb out but 20's are too big and I'll play small each-way stakes again. 4:05 York - Addictive Dream - 3pts @ 10/1 (Bet365) There'll come a time when Addictive Dream gets the luck required to land a nice race and given that he's in such good form of late, it could well happen today. Walter Swinburn's charge will have to overcome having run 3 times in the last month - including a race just last week - in order to win this but he seems to have little problem with taking his racing and still remains a lightly-raced 4 year old on turf. A career-high mark will have to be defied too, as he's now 2lbs higher than when just nudged into 2nd in a Listed race at Ascot last week. However, that was over 5f and he's a much better 6f animal, especially when they'll go a good clip upfront - as seems likely here. Sean Levey takes the ride today and his 3lb claim is sure to come in handy in a race where every inch is likely to count. This horse is quite a tricky one to ride but he's a very useful jockey and seems to be riding well of late. Levey also has a cracking record at this course, having won on 3 of his 8 rides here since beginning to ride in the UK. More importantly, Walter Swinburn has his animals in great form of late, after what was a tough season for him and it'd be good if he could land another big handicap before he takes a break from training after the end of this season. He certainly has the horse to do it and if all goes well, the progressive and consistent Addictive Dream will run another big race. He seems to have most things to suit and this track plays to his strengths, so a good run should be the least to expect. Medium win stakes for me at 10/1 and if his recent exertions haven't taken their toll, that price may look quite big after the race. It could also look tiny! We'll see.

[Monterosso]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Maintaining Sanity (+230pts) :cry ------ The old October slump has returned good and proper. No returns again on Saturday, although a couple of them did perform decently despite their finishing positions suggesting otherwise. John Quinn's juvenile is way better than how he ran and just needs everything to fall into place, which will happen some day. He should make a nice Group class miler (at least; could get further) next year and I'll definitely be keeping an eye out for him. Can't be bothered reviewing how I think they ran - too sleepy and depressed due to a lack of winners! -8.00pts on the day. Wonderful as ever. 2:35 Goodwood - Gouray Girl - 2pts e/w @ 14/1 (Ladbrokes, 4 places) 20 runners are set to go to post in an attempt to win this C3 Handicap and assuming there isn't a track bias towards those racing on the pace, the hold-up horses should be favoured by how this will pan out - mainly down to the inclusion of so much pace in this 6f contest. Plenty of the field should be suited by this but Walter Swinburn's 4 year old filly, Gouray Girl, should be in her element and this is the time of year in which she usually comes good, so hopefully that's the case here again. Things haven't went smoothly for Gouray Girl since she was an impressive winner at Newbury (GS, 7f) nearly 12 months ago but she has returned to an exceptionally good handicap mark of 86 after failing to land a race this year (set some very unsuitable tasks). That's a rating now 3lbs lower than her only handicap win to date and the performance she produced on that occasion suggested she'd have little problems dealing with a mark in the mid-nineties when getting ideal conditions. This is a completely different test though, as she's very unlikely to get cut in the ground (unless the heavens open) and she's running at a much more speed demanding track. However, Gouray Girl isn't on that's lacking for speed at all and having turned in what I consider to be a solid run over this trip at Newmarket last time out, she shapes as if she's coming to hand again. She was a 4½ length 5th of 9 on that occasion but the track was severely favouring those on the pace and she did very well in the circumstances having been held-up right at the back. I'm not convinced that she's in love with that track either and the return to Goodwood - a place where she has finished a very close-up 2nd on both of her starts here (inc. on fast ground) - could well prove to be a smart move by connections. There should be nice, good racing ground today and that'll suit - plus she doesn't seem overly ground dependent anyway. Rain would be welcomed but the most important thing to her is a solid gallop to chase after, which looks virtually assured. Jim Crowley takes over in the saddle for the first time and he's an interesting booking, and certainly a capable man to have in control. If he can get her into a nice rhythm mid-race, she should be in with some sort of chance come the end of the race and may be up to giving the in-from Swinburn stable another winner. The lightly-raced Gouray Girl is definitely well-treated at the moment and this may be the time to catch her, so I'll play medium each-way stakes at a tasty 14/1 price-tag. I'd rate her as being worthy of a much shorter price, mainly down the performance level that she's capable of when things go well for her - plus she shaped quite well last time out in a C2 contest off a 2lb higher mark. Hopefully career win number three is on the way.

[Monterosso]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Maintaining Sanity (+230pts) Gouray Girl ran a very good race but like all good each-way bets, she finished one place away from returning some money and had to settle for 5th position. She actually hit around 1.60 to win late on and looked a sure thing to finish in the places but she faded in the closing half-furlong. Can't complain about her effort at all and it'll be interesting to see where she'll go in the coming weeks, as she's very well-handicapped and won't have a problem with likely cut in the ground. Keep an eye out for her, she's a winner waiting to happen. -4.00pts on the day. 3:15 Yarmouth - Drift And Dream - 2pts @ 17/2 (VC) A strong 6f contest in the offing here with 14 runner set to go to post but it usually pays to race out of the higher numbered stalls here over this trip and therefore I'm taking a chance on Drift And Dream to bounce back to winning ways from stall 8. Things haven't went to plan for Chris Wall's 4 year old filly, as he reported that she had a few niggles throughout the past year and that explains why she wasn't seen back on the track until late August. Drift And Dream has run on three occasions since coming back this year, with improvement coming with each run. She comes here as one of the fresher animals in the race and connections now make an interesting move by returning her to 6f. In a 12 race career so far, Chris Wall's filly has only run over this distance once (also ran over 5½f once), and that was her second career outing in which she was too free to get involved. There's every chance that she'll be seeing out the trip on this easy track without any trouble, after all her best outings have come over the stiff 5f at Sandown - where she has won twice from 6 races. With the new whip rules being enforced around the country today, backing those who travel strongly may pay dividends and that's a comment that can certainly be applied to Drift And Dream, as she's a lovely mover when getting her favoured fast ground. Today's conditions should be just about fast enough for her and with a decent pace likely, she looks to be the one to side with. She's well-handicapped (runs off last winning mark), goes at the course (won on debut here over 5f) and has the capable Neil Callan on board for the first time, which looks like an interesting booking. Chris Wall's horses are going a lot better of late too, as his string just weren't performing in the early part of the season. This looks to be the time to catch his runners and the same comment could apply to Drift And Dream, as she's one of the better treated animals in this race. Wall also has a cracking record at the course, with 19% of his runners winning here in the past 5 years and he's had 5 winners from just 30 runners at the course in 2011 - which is especially impressive given how poorly his early-season runners were going. This isn't a race to be overly confident about anything but 17/2 about this animal represents value and if she's back to her best (shaped very well last twice), she really should get involved. Small win stakes for me and hopefully she could oblige. Alan McCabe's lightly-raced 3 year old, Levitate (12/1), may be worth having a little bet on too.

[Monterosso]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Maintaining Sanity (+230pts) 3:45 Yarmouth - Loki's Revenge - 2pts e/w @ 16/1 (WillHill) Things haven't exactly went to plan for Loki's Revenge this season, as he's still without victory in 6 attempts as a 3 year old. He won on 4 of his 14 outings as a juvenile and although it seems as if his performances haven't been great since, the majority of them are a lot better than the bare figures suggest. As a result of that, he's now looking like a well-handicapped horse off a mark of 79 and William Jarvis now sees fit to apply first-time blinkers, which could well work the oracle for a horse who has looked awkward on occasion. Loki's Revenge was last seen running a solid 10th of 25 in the Ayr Bronze Cup, a race in which he stuck to the task well despite it favouring those on the pace. He was held-up towards the rear on the far side and just couldn't make any inroads into the leaders in his group of 11 - but still managed to finish 4th of his group, 2½ lengths clear of the 5th. It's hardly a brilliant run but it's a lot better than the bare finishing position suggests and I feel he's close to coming back into the winners enclosure. The main run I'm interested in is when Loki's Revenge ran over 6f at Goodwood when the ground was very soft. Connections got stuck into their charge, as he was well-backed from 16's the night before into an SP of 15/2. Stall 15 didn't look like a bad place to be positioned but as the race panned out and how the track was riding, he faced an uphill battle before he even embarked on the downhill course. At one stage he actually looked like coming with a winning run (hit 2.10 in-running) but he was repelled by the eventual winner (who I backed at 20's!) and then faded out of contention. He looked exceptionally awkward on the track though and to see him fade wasn't a surprise, but the effort can be marked up a fair bit. Loki's Revenge now tackles quicker ground on a completely different track, but that shouldn't pose any threat to him at all. The one worry would be how he'll cope with being positioned in stall 4, as that's not ideal in a bigger sized field around here but I'll take a chances at his current price of 16/1. Joe Fanning being on board for the first time is a big plus, as I don't think you can find too many better jockeys out there. He has an amazing record when riding for William Jarvis, with 13 winners and 12 places from just 57 runners - that's a 23% strike-rate and the pair show a massive ROI of 195% (had a 66/1 winner mind). They haven't teamed on the flat at all this season and it really looked like an interesting jockey booking. The horses owner, Dr Walker, has had Fanning on board his animals on 20 occasions, of which 7 ended up being winners. It looks as if they mean business today and added to all the simple statistics, the Jarvis yard are in stunning form of late, with 4 of their last 10 runners winning. Since August, they've had 10 runners at Yarmouth and 4 winners and 3 seconds have come about from them too. Loki's Revenge could well add to that here at a fancy price of 16/1 if all goes well and I'll play medium each-way stakes on him doing the business. He's definitely capable of getting involved and his current price is massive in relation to his actual chance. If he can put it all in and get a bit of luck, he's bound to go well. Whether that happens or not is another thing but I'm quietly confident that it will (famous last words).

[Lars]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Maintaining Sanity (+230pts) :clap:clap Cracking stuff.

[Aidymac]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Maintaining Sanity (+230pts) Well done James! :clap Some gamble on that one.

[Monterosso]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Maintaining Sanity (+230pts) Cheers men, some gamble landed. Delighted. :clap Joe Fanning is pure class.

[TheBoyRooney]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Maintaining Sanity (+230pts) A well deserved and great winner:cow

[Aidymac]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Maintaining Sanity (+230pts)

Cheers men, some gamble landed. Delighted. :clap Joe Fanning is pure class.

He would make a heart explode... Hero or villian ride that was!! Hero he is :cheers

[switzerland]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Maintaining Sanity (+230pts) Monte, good shout there on Loki's Revenge. Can't say I'm not happy though as I backed 3 horses today and Mosaicist was one of them at 9/1.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Maintaining Sanity (+230pts) Well done :clap

[bowles10]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Maintaining Sanity (+230pts) great shout monte, 9/2 shot, you got 16's !!

[Tedthewolf]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Maintaining Sanity (+230pts) :clap Smashing Call :clap

[BKI Punter]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Maintaining Sanity (+230pts) 'stuff as always mate. :clap

[Monterosso]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Maintaining Sanity (+230pts) Cheers everyone, much appreciated. :clap

[Monterosso]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Maintaining Sanity (+230pts) Finally managed to get a nice winner on the board as Loki's Revenge added to William Jarvis' fine recent form by getting up in the shadow of the post to score at Yarmouth. The speedy 3 year old was exceptionally well-backed throughout the day and eventually went off as a 9/2 shot. It took him quite a while to find top gear and he was still 7th (and looking one-paced) moving into the final furlong. However, he was given plenty of time by Joe Fanning and found his rhythm in the closing stages to fly home for a well-deserved victory. He landed a 2pt e/w bet at 16/1 in the process and ended a losing streak of 17 for me. Not so bad! Earlier on, Drift And Dream was also well-backed to be sent off as the 11/2 favourite but she pulled quite hard in the early stages and couldn't find any extra inside the final furlong. She kept on well enough for 3rd place and if she manages to get her favoured fast ground in the coming weeks (doubtful that she will), she'll be of interest again off her current rating of 76 (if running over 6f; will need to settle better). Solid run, can't complain. +38.00pts on an extremely good day and one that was long overdue. Just the one today. 4:00 Newcastle - Youhavecontrol - 1pt e/w @ 10/1 (Bet365, 4 places) Very tough 6f H'cap in the offing here, with 16 runners set to go to post and the majority seemingly in decent form. Over this trip at Newcastle, you generally want to side with those drawn high (especially on softer going) and Youhavecontrol looks to have a live chance of getting involved from stall 13. A strong pace to run after will be needed, as he's not an obvious one to be contesting races in the sprinting division but he doesn't seem to be lacking in speed and should be seeing out his race well at a track that takes a lot of getting. Michael Dods trains the 3-year-old Youhavecontrol and as was the case last season, his animals seem to be coming to hand at the end of the campaign. 5 of his last 20 runners have scored, including winners at 6/1, 7/1, 15/2 & 11/1. This definitely looks to be the time to watch his runners closely and today he sees fit to book Paul Hanagan for the first time on board this fellow. The trainer/jockey combination doesn't occur too often nowadays but they boast fine results when teaming up and Hanagan is the top jockey at this track in recent times. 2 of his last 5 rides for Dods have ended in victory (both this time last year) and it looks like a relatively interesting booking - even though it may mean nothing. Even more interesting is the fact that Youhavecontrol is now dropped back to sprint trips for the first time since winning his maiden on seasonal debut this year (had one run over C&D as a juvenile; needed it). On that occasion - at Thirsk on decent ground - Dods' charge was doing all of his best work late on despite taking a keen hold from the off. I wouldn't be convinced that 6f at Thirsk would be the ideal test for him and with a much larger emphasis on stamina here (albeit over the same trip), he can prove to be even better than what still rates as his career-best effort to date. The soft ground that Youhavecontrol will encounter today - for the first time in a handicap (got good-to-soft before but didn't see out a mile at this track, which is understandable) - is something that he should relish and assuming they go quick enough for him, he's one of the more likely types to be seen finishing out his race well (or else he'll be badly one-paced under pressure!). It's obvious that things haven't went to plan since that useful maiden win (beat a sprinter now rated 90) but he has had excuses on a number of occasions and ran some decent races in defeat despite racing conditions not being overly suitable. Youhavecontrol is still very lightly-raced having only lined out on 7 occasions and despite some form-readers seeming to think that he's caught by the handicapper off his current rating (74), I think he has the potential to have a nice bit in hand off it when his ideal conditions arise. He may just have everything spot on today and at a price of 10/1, I'll take a chance. He's not a winner-in-waiting or anything like that but he's talented and should be up to winning a similar contest. This is a tough one to solve though, so it's just minimal each-way stakes for me. Hopefully he'll go well and I see no reason why he shouldn't. Tim Easterby's 3 year old, Captain Kolo (11/1), would be the only other I'd consider backing but he just doesn't find winning easy, especially when my money is resting on his shoulders (bound to win now).

[Monterosso]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Maintaining Sanity (+230pts) Youhavecontrol was unfortunate to race in the smaller group at Newcastle on Tuesday and as a result, he had no chance of actually winning the race. He beat his side home with ease and had he raced on the favoured side, place money would of been the least I'd of expected. It'll be interesting to see where he heads now as I'm convinced he'll be entering the winners enclosure if conditions are suitable in the coming few weeks. Solid run in the circumstances and I can't complain. -2.00pts on the day. 2:25 Ascot - Night Carnation - 1.50pts e/w @ 22/1 (Boylesports) I rarely ever back horses unless I think that they will have ideal conditions for their race but I'm going to break that rule here in the hope that I'm quite wrong about Night Carnation's ability - or lack of - to handle fast ground. Anyone who has read what I've posted throughout the year will know that I've previously earmarked Andrew Balding's 3 year old filly as a potential Group 1 performer when her ideal race conditions would arise and I'm still of that opinion, assuming she stays in training as a 4 year old as this will be her last outing for the season and it's a Group 2 race. It was a 5f Group 3 win at Sandown that initially led me to believe that Night Carnation was of the highest quality, as she blitzed the field to score by nearly 2 lengths. In hindsight, she was favoured by numerous things - not least the draw bias that exists over that C&D and that was the main reason why some of her opposition could never get competitive. Regardless of that, the way she travelled mid-race before quickening up the Sandown hill was impressive and achieved with consummate ease. All of this is made even more impressive as she was facing properly quick ground for the first time, something that her trainer previously worried about. That run would give cause for hoping that conditions won't hinder her today, even though plenty of other things went well for her and the opposition who were given a fair chance to compete just weren't that good in the grand scheme of things. It's still a run worthy of a lot of respect and if she can improve on it, which seems likely, a big run could be in order here. Night Carnation was then put away after that race (July 2nd) until this day 4 weeks ago (September 17th) when she reappeared to tackle another Group 3 contest, this time over Newbury's 5 furlongs on what was decent, good ground. She moved into contention nicely enough but having raced with the choke out early on in the race, she couldn't find a whole pile in the closing stages. In the end, Balding's charge was beaten by little more than 3 lengths, finishing 5th, behind the likely favourite for today's race - James Fanshawe's vastly improved 4 year old gelding, Deacon Blues (3/1 here). I genuinely think that form can be turned around as Newbury just isn't the ideal place for Night Carnation, even though I stupidly backed her on that occasion thinking she'd get away with the easy track. A stiff 5f is ideal for her but connections are now upping her back to 6f and that's something that I always thought could suit now that she's a much improved animal compared to her couple of juvenile outings over this trip. She just didn't go at Newbury and looked quite awkward in the way she held her head. It's possible that she needed the outing after such a long break and she should be spot on here for what I now consider to be a much more suitable race for her. The ground has to be a big worry but she is a 22/1 shot and I'll play small/medium each-way stakes in the hope that she can run her race. Apart from the ground, there's no obvious reason why she can't give her best and the price just seems much too big to me.

[Monterosso]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Maintaining Sanity (+230pts) Can't make head nor tail of the other Group races, so I'll take a watching brief and enjoy it. Reckon Excelebration will put it up to Frankel but I've been burnt enough times backing against him. Midday in the Champion Stakes was interesting me too but so do a couple of others. Might be best to leave them races well alone. On to the handicap.. 4:45 Ascot - Valencha - 2pts e/w @ 14/1 (Ladbrokes, 5 places) It's hard enough to solve a 29 runner handicap, it's even harder when the jockeys on board are inexperienced apprentice riders. However, Valencha, a progressive 4 year old filly, has the excellent Harry Bentley on board and the pairing look in with a decent shout of running a big race here. Hughie Morrison has really worked wonders with this animal, as she's most consistent having never finished out of the first four in 16 career outings - 3 of which were wins and another 9 being placed efforts. Horses holding their form are always worth a second look at this time of year and this filly shows no signs of losing hers just yet. Valencha comes here to race off a career-high mark of 87 having been raised 5lbs for a half-length victory in a 15 runner handicap last time out. That was over this 7f trip at Epsom and she was given a fine ride by the recently retired (not for long I hope) Richard Hughes, as he produced her nicely through tight gaps in order to give Morrison's charge her first win in 5 races (that win also under Hughes). That was only a C4 event and obviously this is a lot tougher, the toughest task of her career, but she remains progressive and could have another few lbs in hand. The majority of the race-pace seems to be drawn relatively high and Valencha has a sit in stall 19, which should prove to be a good draw. Another thing I'd usually look for with horses running here is previous course form and this filly has lined up twice at this track. On both occasions, she finished in 2nd place having looked the most likely winner and it's possible that she hit the front too early each time. Although she did run in to a very progressive type in William Haggas' Electra Star on the second occasion and that was over a mile - 7f is her optimum. Hughie Morrison has his yard in great form of late, with 4 winners and a number of close efforts from his 22 runners this month. Backing stables in good knick is another thing that comes in handy at this time of year and he has his going well. He also has a fine record at the track and 5 winners, 4 seconds and 1 third have resulted from just 17 runners at the track this year. Valencha looks capable of adding to that under the guidance of Harry Bentley and he also does well here, having achieved 3 winners and 3 places from 15 rides here. It'll be a very tough contest to win but there are 5 places being paid with a good few firms and 14/1 looks big (can get 16's with 4 places). I'll play medium each-way stakes and hopefully this progressive filly will continue to run her usual solid race and run into a place at least. Of the rest, I'd be delighted to see a big run from my old friend Striking Spirit (22/1) and he's worthy of having a few quid on each-way too. The likely favourite, Pearl Ice, could be anything but may not be favourably positioned and the 15/2 about him does not appeal, even though Sir Mark said he'd make a very nice 3 year old after he sluiced up when last seen, just over a year ago. He could be anything but the price isn't big enough. Woodcote Place isn't without a chance at 33/1 either. The rest don't really appeal too much at the prices.

[Monterosso]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Maintaining Sanity (+230pts) :( ---- No returns last Saturday. Night Carnation was below her best on ground much quicker than ideal and she didn't improve for the step up in trip either. She ran a very solid race in the circumstances and I can't really complain as I knew the risks involved in backing a horse without favourable conditions. It'll be interesting to see if she'll reappear next season and if she does, I'll be keeping a close eye on her. She's got plenty of talent, it's just a pity that she needs so much to be correct in order to show it. Valencha ran the first truly awful race of her career and I'm not sure why. Not much else to say! -7.00pts on the day. 3:10 Doncaster - Devdas - 2pts e/w @ 8/1 (Ladbrokes) I'm not usually too keen to punt in these Juvenile H'caps but Clive Cox's Devdas should be more than capable of reaching the frame here and looks a cracking each-way bet at 8/1. In a short 5-race career to date, this well-bred colt hasn't finished out of the first four and has improved all of the time. There's bound to be a fair bit more to come off his current rating of 81 and with the exceptionally capable John Fahy taking off a further 3lbs (to leave him off 78), I'd be quite surprised if he doesn't get involved at the business end. Devdas has a tendency to run too free in his races but it's quite likely that they'll go a good clip upfront here and hopefully that will help him. This will be the first time he lines out on a properly flat track on turf and that's another thing that I feel will help him quite a lot. Last time out, at Newmarket, Clive Cox's charge got unbalanced coming into the dip and threw away his chance of winning as a result. It was quite a farcical race in the way it was run (crawled early on, forcing him to over-race) but he kept on nicely for 3rd in a much tougher contest (although he was well-positioned throughout) and a slight step up on that run could be enough. Devdas came into that race on the back of a mightily impressive win in a similar C4 contest to this when running on the July course, also at Newmarket. That was the first time he encountered both a mile and softer ground (could get a bit of cut today; good ground won't hinder), which he seemed to relish. A very impressive turn of foot saw him scoot clear of the field around a furlong from home and although he was quite idle in-front, he won by a comfortable 1¼ lengths in the end. He's effectively 3lbs higher here with the jockeys claim taken into account and I think he's potentially capable of having around 6-7lbs improvement in him yet (possibly more next year). Whether he's actually able to run to that is another thing and the risk of a similarly unexposed type improving past him is large but he's definitely the perceived value call here at 8/1. I'll play medium each-way stakes in the hope that Devdas will make the first 3 and hopefully he will. There's a lot more to come from this fellow and Cox makes a 330 mile round trip to visit Doncaster for just one runner - with 6 of his others lining up at Newbury. I've a feeling this one could be subject to strong market support and if that occurs, 8/1 will look massive. Of the rest, James Given's Derby entrant, Buster Brown (10/1), is quite interesting but apart from him there's no real stand out animals. I'll just stick with Clive Cox to have yet another winner.