2010 Formula One World Championship

[Jenspm]

Re: 2010 Formula One World Championship Diving in before they slash the odds.. German GP Winner Alonso @ 3.4 - boylesports I've been extremely impressed by Alonso all week-end, with good results in practice and qualifying and being consistantly faster than Vettel until that last Qualifying lap where Vettel beat him by two thousands of a second. Alonso seems highly determined for a win here, and Ferrari seem to be heading in the right direction as well, Massa following up in third in qualifying. It seems to be a battle between the Bulls and the Horses in this one, with Vettel and Alonso being in different class, it seems. I think the battle between the two is close to 50/50, of course Vettel a slight favourite, but nothing that says Alonso deserves these odds the way he's been racing all week. Dry weather means super-soft tyres, and I think Alonso has a solid chance of victory here, on a track that doesn't fit the Red Bull as much as most others.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: 2010 Formula One World Championship Got to agree Jens. Alonso @ 3.3 Centrebet These two have been a class above this weekend and for me it is very even. I don't necessarily give Alonso the edge, but any edge Vettel has here is quite small - in what is essentially a 50-50 choice the odds here on Alonso are very good. Of course, somebody could win outside of these two, but that would likely require a crash or a badly time safety car/rain period -- factors whose low probability would still see these two fighting out the win on most occasions. What should also be noted here is that this is Vettel's home grand prix. Now, in non race sessions, this can add motivation for drivers to try for a deceptively fast lap on low fuel in a bid for glory. In the race though, I feel this variable may have adverse affects, particularly for Vettel. For me, Vettel is mentally weak. In Silverstone, after being given Mark's front wing, he messes up the start. In Turkey, he got gun ho and was responsible for the crash with Webber (I don't care what Horner says, it was Vettel's fault). Last year, too, Vettel had chances to close the gap to Button, but he always let them pass by and made errors at key moments (stuck it in the wall in Monaco that year). Ultimately, I don't feel Vettel responds very well to pressure, particularly that which is applied in the context of a championship. Given the importance of this race in both a patriotic sense and a championship defining one, the pressure is certainly on Vettel, and at odds-on, I certainly would want not to be relying on him to respond well to it.

[Jenspm]

Re: 2010 Formula One World Championship German GP: Points Finish Adrian Sutil @ 4.5 - Sportingbet Extremely agressive odds here for the German who set the fastest time in the first practice. He's finished in the points in 7/10 races so far, and ahead of this race he's starting in 14th, but should have enough potential to hang on for a top 10 finish - or, at least enough potential to deserve lower odds than 4.5. Here's a list of his races so far, quali results in brackets; Bahrain: 12 (10) Australia: 14* (10) - engine broke down Malaysia: 5 (4) China: 11 (10) Barcelona: 7 (11) Monaco: 8 (12) Turkey: 9 (11) Canada: 10 (9) Valencia: 6 (13) Silverstone: 8 (11) What can we read from this? Well, every single time Sutil has qualified outside the top 10, he's driven into the points in the race. Why? Hard to tell, but he does get the chance to choose his tyres. He's improved his qualifying place in five of his last six races. He's shown he has pace, he's at home and rarely retires races. A real chance of a top 10 finish, much better than the odds imply.

[Jenspm]

Re: 2010 Formula One World Championship German GP: Points Finish Michael Schumacher @ 2.0 - BlueSq Surprised at the high odds here. Schumi starts in 11th place and only needs to advance one place to grab points. Looking at the previous races (Qualifying in brackets); Bahrain: 6 (7) Australia: 10 (7) Malaysia: Ret. China: 10 (9) (tires) Barcelona: 4 (6) Monaco: 6 (7) (down to 12 after penalty) Turkey: 4 (5) Canada: 11 (13) Valencia: 15 (15) Silverstone: 9 (10) So he's improved his place in 6/10 race, 6/9 of the ones he's finished. In the race in China, he was passed by at least a couple racers as he had to preserve tires. He's shown decent pace in the practices and qualifying in Germany, and again - he's at home. Decent odds here, I believe the chance of him grabbing points is more than 50%

[Ben H]

Re: 2010 Formula One World Championship Going with you both Jenspm and Crouch Potato on the Alonso win, and with that in mind.... 2pts lay S.Vettel to win the race 2.16, Betfair Really think Alonso will beat him over a race in nearly as fast a car, and this has the possiblity of pay out if someone else wins as well. Also gonna go with... 1pt F.Alonso to lead the first lap, 4.7, Betfair Alonso should be fired up for this, and given that there is nice passing oppurtunity down into the hairpin, turn 4, if he dosen't get him at the start (and the Ferrari hasn't been giving away anything to the Red Bull in the speed traps all weekend) it looks tempting odds to me. 2pts, K.Kobayashi, Finish in points, 6/5, 888sport He starts 12th and has scored points in three of the last four races. The Sauber is getting better as the season goes on, and this guy is quick and can pass people, as well as as doing long first stints on the hard tyres, which have all been crucial to his recent success. And that last point leads me to a bit of a crazy one..... 0.5pt, K.Kobayshi, Fastest Lap, 110, Betfair Im hoping he does what he did in Valencia and stays out really long on the hard tyres, and hopefully with the quick guys having come in early to get rid of the super softs, he could sqeak the fastest lap. When he did it in Valencia he managed 7th fastest lap, 0.7 off the mark, but he did spend a lot of the time on new tyres passing cars, and Valencia was kinder to tyres, so....you never know i guess! ;) Total classified drivers over 18.5, 1.92, Betfair The last time the circus came to Hockenheim only 3 cars out of 20 failed to finish, and with the relaiblity of the new teams getting better hopefully five or less cars will not be classified (and its classified remeber so completing 75% of the distance counts) 1pt, J.Button to finish on podium, 3.5, Betfair Have been impressed by jenson this season, and he has been making comments throughout the weekend that the McClaren has more to come in race trim. With it lacking nothing down the stratights, and Button being a very good manager of a race, I think he can clear two of the people in fron (one of whon is Massa who has been weak recently). 0.5pt, J.Alguseri to gain most positions, 19, 888sport I've been impressed with Alguseri this season, and he has often raced well and made up a lot of places, being on the verge of the points from the lower midfield. This bet is predicated on there not being many retirements, so anyone from the new teams who stays circulating will hopefully not make up many places, while hopefully Alguseri can get on with passing weaker drivers like De la Rosa and Petrov. This is taken on qualfying position not grid position, so thanks to the Sutil gearbox penalty Jaime has gained a place already (but early days yet!!). The big danger is Liuzzi, starting from 22nd (and at 2.75) who will presumably breeze past the new cars, but the Force India hasn't been all that quick in the dry this weekend and he might be off colour due to his accident yesterday so am gamblling thats where his advance will stop! Gosh thats all my bets a few obscure ones in there but hopefully theres at least a modicum of reasoning behind them, and I certainly hope one comes off! Hope its an exciting race, enjoy it! :)

[Crouch Potato]

Re: 2010 Formula One World Championship With no refueling these days anyone who finishes the race on fresh rubber has a chance of setting fastest lap because thats the only time they run with low fuel. With the supersoft tyres being so preferable for qualifying anyone who runs light with fresh soft tyres sees that chance grow even bigger. As such I'm having a few cheeky attempts for fastest lap: Alguesuari @ 251 centrebet Buemi @ 251 Centrebet Hulkenberg @ 101 Sportsbet Sutil @ 100 Betfair

[I predict a riot]

Re: 2010 Formula One World Championship zero retirements on 1st lap 8/11 willhill :hope

[I predict a riot]

Re: 2010 Formula One World Championship

zero retirements on 1st lap 8/11 willhill :hope

:nana

[Jenspm]

Re: 2010 Formula One World Championship Hahaha, gifted by Ferrari :D Terrible pit stop from Force India and some bad luck ruined the race for Sutil, sadly, but still in profit for the week-end. To sum up the week-end: Hamilton to win @ 6 - -5pts Alonso to win @ 3.4 - +24pts Glock to win P2 @ 501 - -2pts Barrichello to win P2 @ 41 - -2pts Alonso to win Qualifying E-W @ 9.5 - +3.50pts Adrian Sutil to finish in the points @ 4.5 - -10pts Michael Schumacher to finish in the points @ 2.0 - +10pts Total: +18.5pts Don't forget, the next race is already next week-end in Hungary :)

[kevshat]

Re: 2010 Formula One World Championship Good work this weekend guys :clap:clap:clap.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: 2010 Formula One World Championship

Good work this weekend guys :clap:clap:clap.

Thanks Kev. Early one for Hungary. Can't see this price going longer, but can definitely see it shortening by FP1. McLaren - Winning Car @ 7.50 A bit of an over-reaction to the poor showing in Germany and the fact it's a high-downforce track. McLaren have actually won this GP on four of the last five occasions, coming second to a then BAR-contracted Jenson Button in the sole race it didn't win within that period. The message from the team is optimistic and though this hasn't been the type of track the McLaren has performed well on this year I think that previous results and overall excellence as a team will see them much more competitive this weekend. I also don't feel we saw the most from the upgrades they bought to Germany and if they can maximize the performance from those this bet will grow more attractive.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: 2010 Formula One World Championship Practice 1 Winner - Nico Rosberg @ 13 Sportingbet Rosberg hasn't been as active in practice sessions this year compared to last. However, I still feel he is a driver who likes to go out and set a fastest lap, even if it is just in practice. Hungary is a hard track to over-take on so Qualifying will be important. Mercedes have struggled in this area so far this season and with rain forecast for the afternoon, this may be their best chance to work on quali pace. If they do choose to work on qualifying set up then there is a good chance this man will top the timesheets.

[Jenspm]

Re: 2010 Formula One World Championship mm, F1 already - love it! Practice 1 Winner Robert Kubica @ 13 - Skybet A lot has been said about this race and Kubica, and though I don't think they'll have enough for a podium finish, they should be able to contest a P1 victory. The Hungaroring is a track where heavy down-force is needed, and there'll be an extra advantage to those cars with good mechanical grip. The Renault is a prime example of this, as we saw in the race at Monaco. It's also a technical track - a track where the driver can shine through, and decides the outcome more than otherwise. As I've said before, I rate Kubica and Alonso as the two best drivers on the circuit, and thus expect Kubica to over-perform here. The Renault team is traditionally solid at high-downforce tracks, and should use this experience to find a good setup quickly, faster than, say, McLaren who are busy trying to figure out flexy front wings and blown diffusers. Red Bull and Ferrari are obvious threats here, but the favourites don't tend to win the first practice. There's a good chance of rain, but as Kubica is one of the best wet drivers out there that doesn't scare me.

[Jenspm]

Re: 2010 Formula One World Championship Kubica ended third, but I'm still happy with my analysis. Renault did have a nice set-up right from the start, and he was only beat by those two pesky Red Bulls. Should've gone each-way...

[Jenspm]

Re: 2010 Formula One World Championship Hungarian GP: Pole Position Sebastian Vettel @ 2.25 - VictorChandler I cannot see past a Vettel victory here. He's been solid and convincing through 1.5 practices now, the course fits the Red Bull brilliantly, and with Red Bull's extra qualifying strength and impressive record of pole positions, Vettel has to be quite a clear favourite here. Forecast has turned around, and no rain is expected atm, which strengthens this bet.

[Ben H]

Re: 2010 Formula One World Championship 1pt, M.Webber Fastest Qualifier, 2.84, Betfair Seems essentially a two horse race for pole given the way the Red Bull is flying round the track this weekend, and therefore feel these are nice odds for Mark - he has been outqulified by Vettel 7-4 this season, but the four times he outqualified him was when he took pole, so he is certainly not intimidated by the pressure. Apart from practice two, where he made a mistake on his fast lap I beleive, hes been near Vettel's pace, or even ahead as he was this morning. 2pts, M.Schumacher to qualify in top 10, Lay at 1.9, Betfair From the public statements of Schumacher, it seems Mercedes have largely given up on this year and are throwing effort into next years car, and you can see it in the way they are gradually slipping back from their position in the 'Big 4'. In three of the last four races Schumacher hasn't made the top 10, and was very pessimistic about the cars handling when interviewed yesterday. He is 9-3 behind Rosberg in qualifying this year, and well face strong opposoition from the Willlams and Renaults to make the top 10 as well. Enjoy the qualfying, could get used to this F1 every week, well not for long before this long break!!

[Jenspm]

Re: 2010 Formula One World Championship

Hungarian GP: Pole Position Sebastian Vettel @ 2.25 - VictorChandler I cannot see past a Vettel victory here. He's been solid and convincing through 1.5 practices now, the course fits the Red Bull brilliantly, and with Red Bull's extra qualifying strength and impressive record of pole positions, Vettel has to be quite a clear favourite here. Forecast has turned around, and no rain is expected atm, which strengthens this bet.

:nana good call on Schumi, Ben :ok

[Jenspm]

Re: 2010 Formula One World Championship Hungarian GP: Buemi v Alguersuari Jaime Alguersuari @ 2.72 - Pinnacle First of all, Alguersuari is two spots behind Buemi, typically being out-qualified by his team-mate. However, out on the track there's a different story to be told. Alguersuari is one of the most reliable drivers amongst the lower teams, and rarely do we see him drop down in the race compared to how he qualified. In fact, only once has he failed to finish the race (Silverstone, break failure), and other than that, he's only dropped back a spot in a single race - in China (1 spot). Buemi is a different story - five times has he failed to finish the race, three of them due collisions. If we look at the season as a whole, he would've beaten Buemi at this gap eight times. If we discard their crashes, the two have been in similar positions on three occasions (Malaysia, Turkey, Canada). In Malaysia, Alguersuari was a spot behind, but beat him by two positions. In Turkey, he was two spots behind and finished four ahead, but in Canada he was a spot behind and ended four behind. At Monaco, a track that is similar to the one in Hungary, Alguersuari was four spots behind and managed to race up to the spot behind his teammate. Everytime Alguersuari has a decent day at the office, he advances by at least four spots on the grid during the race. This has happened eight times so far this year, in 11 races. Buemi on the other hand, has only advance by more than two spots on three occasions. Working against this bet is the fact that Hungaroring is a hard track to overtake on, and that last time they tried to overtake each-other they crashed rather embarrassingly. Still, I think the odds are too high here, especially considering Buemi's crashing skills. Between the two is Vitantonio Liuzzi, who is in a faster car than both, and thus won't be hindering Alguersuari in any way - he'll be eager to pass Buemi, and this might also open the door for Alguersuari.

[Jenspm]

Re: 2010 Formula One World Championship Hungarian GP: Glock v Di Grassi Lucas Di Grassi @ 3.00 The basis for this bet is the fact that you can never trust the Virgin cars. Each of them have failed to finish on six occasions this year, and with Glock finishing three races now, it's about time his car failed. Di Grassis last two races have been stopped by Gearbox and Hydraulics issues, and he'll be desperate to finish this race. But the Hungaroring is a tough track on the car, tough on the breaks and suspension and I'd be surprised if both of them finish. Thus the value is created at Di Grassi. If we ignore the fact that Di Grassi can overtake Glock from three spots behind, yet say that there's a 50% chance of each of the cars failing to finish, we get the following winning scenarios for Di Grassi: Glock crashes, Di Grassi doesn't: 0.5*0.5=25% Both crash, Glock first: 0.5*0.5*0.5=12.5% In total: 37.5% chance of a Di Grassi win, which implies odds of 2.67. Interestingly enough, Pinnacle were down at 2.8 last night, which suggests massive backing on Glock - I think this is just an overreaction to the fact that Hungaroring is hard to overtake on.

[gettingfatter]

Re: 2010 Formula One World Championship guy on pole has not won for the last 5 years, I know there has been accidents and bad weather but can anyone shed any more light on it? doesnt look like an easy course to overtake to me but i dont know what im talking about.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: 2010 Formula One World Championship Mark Webber to win @ 4.50 Sportingbet Vettel will start from pole for the third successive race, yet he will only be chasing his first victory from those races. His starts have been poor and though his abilities are unquestionable he is really showing himself to be mentally weak. Often on race day he is making the wrong decisions and succumbing to whatever pressures he perceives in his head. Should such a thing happen again, his team=mate and 2nd on the grid Mark Webber is perfectly situated to take the win (providing Vettel doesn't decide to run into him again)

[Jenspm]

Re: 2010 Formula One World Championship

guy on pole has not won for the last 5 years' date=' I know there has been accidents and bad weather but can anyone shed any more light on it? doesnt look like an easy course to overtake to me but i dont know what im talking about.[/quote'] There's often a lot of overtaking in the first lap. I think last time out there were 15 place-swaps on the first lap, and then three more for the rest of the race :loon

[Crouch Potato]

Re: 2010 Formula One World Championship Kubica has looked fast this weekend. Has currently been lapped and has almost no chance of points. That said, he might go for fastest lap towards the end as it's no cost to him now to pit late for fresh tyres. IN PLAY - Kubica fastest lap @ 40 Betfair

[Crouch Potato]

Re: 2010 Formula One World Championship

Kubica has looked fast this weekend. Has currently been lapped and has almost no chance of points. That said, he might go for fastest lap towards the end as it's no cost to him now to pit late for fresh tyres. IN PLAY - Kubica fastest lap @ 40 Betfair

That didn't quite work out did it? :lol Will be interesting to see if Vettel gets a stop go penalty here...

[Jenspm]

Re: 2010 Formula One World Championship Great call on Webber, Crouch :clap The race was extremely frustrating for me. Alguersuari's engine blew after one lap, but it looked fine as Di Grassi quickly jumped two places and ten seconds ahead of Glock. Then suddenly he was a minute behind after two pitstops.. I think I heard something about one of his tires not being tightened enough in the pit stop :wall

[Crouch Potato]

Re: 2010 Formula One World Championship Thanks Jens. :ok Got a bit lucky with the Vettel penalty. Alguersuari got ahead of Buemi on the first lap and certainly does have a great deal of race ability. Very unlucky on both fronts. If it helps at all, I thought both were very smart value picks.

[Deadly Statistics]

Re: 2010 Formula One World Championship I need some other opinions on the drivers championship. First of all the points tally:

1	Mark Webber	Australian	RBR-Renault	161
2	Lewis Hamilton	British	McLaren-Mercedes	157
3	Sebastian Vettel	German	RBR-Renault	151
4	Jenson Button	British	McLaren-Mercedes	147
5	Fernando Alonso	Spanish	Ferrari	141

Sebastien Vettel and Mark Webber clearly have the fastest cars i think we could agree there but both are also prone to making driving errors. Vettel has had pole i think 8 times for 1 victory and is only trailing by 10 points. The market at sportingbet is as follows: Vettel $2.88 Alonso $3.3 Webber $4 Hamilton $6 I actually think that vettel will win the championship but if webber wins the next grand prix will red bull swap allegiences and give webber the preference? I honestly think Alonso is huge unders and a great lay and that red bull will win the drivers championship. I would appreciate other peoples thought on the championship. Thanks in advance.

[Ben H]

Re: 2010 Formula One World Championship

I need some other opinions on the drivers championship. First of all the points tally:

1	Mark Webber	Australian	RBR-Renault	161
2	Lewis Hamilton	British	McLaren-Mercedes	157
3	Sebastian Vettel	German	RBR-Renault	151
4	Jenson Button	British	McLaren-Mercedes	147
5	Fernando Alonso	Spanish	Ferrari	141

Sebastien Vettel and Mark Webber clearly have the fastest cars i think we could agree there but both are also prone to making driving errors. Vettel has had pole i think 8 times for 1 victory and is only trailing by 10 points. The market at sportingbet is as follows: Vettel $2.88 Alonso $3.3 Webber $4 Hamilton $6 I actually think that vettel will win the championship but if webber wins the next grand prix will red bull swap allegiences and give webber the preference? I honestly think Alonso is huge unders and a great lay and that red bull will win the drivers championship. I would appreciate other peoples thought on the championship. Thanks in advance.

Ah yes was going to come on and post myself about this! I certainly agree Red Bull have the fastest car and it will probably remain thus for the rest of the season, but certain things are leading me away from one of their drivers to win the championship. Chiefly I have in mind backing Hamilton at 5/1(bwin). By heavens that Red Bull was fast at the last race, way ahead of the McLaren, but then look at how McLaren have proved so adept at developing their cars under the ban on testing - they were far behind the Red Bulls at the start of the season and most of it back by Turkey/Canada, and last year they vaulted from near the back of the grid to near the front by the end of the year. And being so close I'm sure they will be not giving up on this year and working on next years car! The balance of tracks could be worse for McLaren as well - being an Adrian Newey car, the Red Bull will most likely still be a fair lick ahead at tracks with lots of fast sweeping corners, but there are really only three of those left - the amazing autodromes of Spa, Suzuka and Interlagos. Against that we have Monza, with its long straights and chicanes (and have heard Webber say in the last week that the Red Bull's Renault engine is down on power so will not help them there), Singapore, and Abu Dhabi, where the McLaren went well last season, and a new track in Korea designed by Hermann Tilke, which probably will be not exactly the old Nurburgring...(even if it gets built, theres rumours its not on schedule and the race might be moved to the twisty Magny Cours circuit, tho haven't heard anything about that for a while). When you add in the possiblity that rain has occurred frequently before at Spa and Interlagos, which would negate the Red Bull's aerdynamics, there will be a more stringent test on front wings from the next race which may affect Red Bull's 'flexible' front wing, the general prospensity of the Red Bull drivers to do certain daft things in races and their unstable intra team battle, and the fact Hamilton is a damn fine pedeller and has the expereince of two title battles unlike the Red Bull drivers, and i'm definately tempted by 5/1, and also laying Vettel at 2/1 on Betfair, so even Webber winning would bring that one in. Taking a punt on a wet race or to as well, I am even considering a smaller stake on Button (26/1) to win the whole thing, he was brilliant in winning two wet races earlier this season, if the car dosen't blow up you could hopefully rely on him to notch the points up everywhere and a win or two could get his nose nicely in front.... As for Alonso, thats an interesting one. The Ferraris leapfrogged the McLarnes in the last couple of races and he will have the full backing of the Scuderia including his team mate, behind him, and he certainly close enough to pull it off. But...you only have to listen to the team radio to hear how frenzied he can be under pressure, or 2007 at McLaren how distracted he can be when things don't go his way. And I have a feeling that the championship will be madly close and frenetic till the end, and at the longer odds and with McLarens record in developing the car, and remeber a long shot Alonso could lose that German win (tho i'd think he'il keep it) i'd much rather have Hamilton at the longer odds. Tho, when it comes down to it, Alonso is a supremely talented driver, so tho I wouldn't back him, I wouldn't be confident enough to lay either! Gosh apologies for the lenght of the post, thats all i've been tossing over in my head for the past while...it had to all splurge out somewhere sometime...:unsure The marvel of it all is we shouldn't really be having this conversation at all, given how far Red Bull were ahead at the start of the season they had an oppourtunity to storm far away in both championships, but due to some bad luck and some daft things they haven't...I just wonder if this is going to be another 1986 season, for Mansell/Piquet in the faster car read Webber/Vettel. And if I end up putting money on them I wouldn't complain if the guy in the slower McLaren sneaks through the middle to win the whole thing, a la Prost...;)

[Ben H]

Re: 2010 Formula One World Championship Looks pretty damp at Spa, so going with an in play bet, 1pt A.Sutil fastest in practice one, 11, 888sport Hope he can do the same as in Germany!

[Ben H]

Re: 2010 Formula One World Championship And further to my previous post the other week, have gone with Lewis Hamilton at 6.2 as my main bet for the championship, with a smaller sum on Button at 22 with a view to lay if he does well. Have also gone with Button at 5 to finish in the top 3 of the championship, and Button at 15 to win the race, with rain predicted for Sunday and Jenson having two wet wins this year under his belt (where he called the tyre choice exactly right, and that is always an issue at Spa because the weather can change so quickly) is hopefully a good call. 2pts L.Hamilton to win the World Championship, 6.2, Betfair 1pt J.Button to win the World Championship, 22, Betfair 2pts J.Button to finish in the top 3 of the World Championship, 5, Betfair 2pts J.Button to win the Belgian Grand Prix, 15, Betfair