Your Professional bets~ Debate Only

[Gingertipster]

I'm definitely not getting involved in this thread, other than to say (:lol).... the whole thing falls down if you're not consistently correct with your judgement (ie your % assessment). The whole idea of the table of odds being your gateway to betting success just doesn't sit well with me. Proportioning %'s and acting upon them when seeing the betting is NOT enough alone to make you a winning punter. You initial assessment must be right. As Mowgli touched upon, regardless of what some will say, taking 1000/1 about horses you think are 6/4 shots will NOT guarantee you long term profits. Not if you are wrong with your initial "6/4 assessment". Taking the "right prices" (according to yourself) will not make you win as you may have an incorrect judgement of what the price should be in the first place. Inexperienced or non-winning punters should look to master their assessment skills first, then at a later stage, when they truly know a 40/1 shot is overpriced (for example), go down this route. :ok

. Billy, Unless you are able to give a good assessment of the race, knowing the table is not enough:ok. BUT IT WILL HELP YOU GET BETTER AT ASSESSING A RACE. If a punter does not know the table. It is very difficult for him to (as you say) "master his assessment skills first" if he does not know how percentages and prices mix. No punter can expect to get it right straight away. It takes time to learn how much one horse is better than the next. I made a loss the first year I tried this way. How can a punter "master his assessment skills first", if he does not know the table? He will struggle to know if a top price 6/1 is value, without knowing it should (in his opinion) have a better than 14% chance to be value.

[billy the punter]

Re: Your Professional bets

. Billy, Unless you are able to give a good assessment of the race, knowing the table is not enough:ok. BUT IT WILL HELP YOU GET BETTER AT ASSESSING A RACE. If a punter does not know the table. It is very difficult for him to (as you say) "master his assessment skills first" if he does not know how percentages and prices mix. No punter can expect to get it right straight away. It takes time to learn how much one horse is better than the next. I made a loss the first year I tried this way. How can a punter "master his assessment skills first", if he does not know the table? He will struggle to know if a top price 6/1 is value, without knowing it should (in his opinion) have a better than 14% chance to be value.

Gambling is only a part of horse racing. I'm talking about learning horse racing. What makes a horse run well. What makes a horse well handicapped. What makes a horse more likely to win than another. Irrespective of prices. Only once you have a genuine idea about the game and can predict horses well, can you know which is value to win a race (according to market opinion). It's about your opinion verus their opinion. Therefore you need an opinion before the prices come out. Even a slave to the table like yourself must do assessments before you see the prices? It's the only way your judgement cannot be clouded surely? Or are you saying you look at the market before or while you study?

[Gingertipster]

Re: Your Professional bets

Gambling is only a part of horse racing. I'm talking about learning horse racing. What makes a horse run well. What makes a horse well handicapped. What makes a horse more likely to win than another. Irrespective of prices. Only once you have a genuine idea about the game and can predict horses well, can you know which is value to win a race (according to market opinion). It's about your opinion verus their opinion. Therefore you need an opinion before the prices come out. Even a slave to the table like yourself must do assessments before you see the prices? It's the only way your judgement cannot be clouded surely? Or are you saying you look at the market before or while you study?

To form a good assessment of value Billy, it stands to reason a punter has to be able to assess form and all the other things that go with it.:ok Thought that went without saying. If I produce a 100% book I like to do it before looking at bookies prices. Sometimes when it is an ante-post race, you might know many bookies prices anyway. But think it is possible to gaurd against opinion being "clouded". How do you like to do it Billy?

[billy the punter]

Re: Your Professional bets

To form a good assessment of value Billy, it stands to reason a punter has to be able to assess form and all the other things that go with it.:ok Thought that went without saying. If I produce a 100% book I like to do it before looking at bookies prices. Sometimes when it is an ante-post race, you might know many bookies prices anyway. But think it is possible to gaurd against opinion being "clouded". How do you like to do it Billy?

Well I do my studying the day before so like you say 99% of the time there are no prices. Of my short listed horses from the races I decide to play in, I have the price I believe they should be, then the price I think they will be. A majority of the time they are priced up bigger than the price I believe they should be as going for under rated types is my thing. Got to dash will come back later. :ok

[Gingertipster]

Re: Your Professional bets

No probs Ginge, you should have a clinic open by now:lol I think its interesting, you know I do if your honest, and sometimes I do play devils advocate on here. Its also interesting that the ones that answer are those that by their own admission 'cant get it round their heads'. The main problem i see that the average punter has is how do you come up with the answer that Horse A has a 33% chance of winning and Horse B has a 20% chance and so on. Most people look at a race and will find their fancy and go straight to the odds comparison site and see what the best price is and then decide whether to back it or not. Its just the 'how do I decide what % a horse has of winning' that beats people, its ok saying make a tissue without seeing the prices first, but that rarely happens with the majority and seeing the prices does influence peoples opinion on a race without doubt. Tell us how you select your bets from looking at the decs to deciding your own % without seeing a betting forecast, and then finally trying to secure the value, if thats what you do of course. It may help those a little confused by your mathematicle explanations.

Thought I have already done that in my "How To Work Out A 100% Book" thread BH. Please take a look at that and tell me how you want me to elaborate.:ok

[Gingertipster]

wasn't going to get involved but. 2.15 Wincanton Celestial Halo 45% 6/4 Blue Bajan 15% 11/2 Whiteoak 14% 6/1 Tasheba 10% 9/1 Mamlook 7.5% 12/1 Katies tuitor 8% 11/1 Marodima 0.5% 200/1 The only horse that beats my price at the moment is Celestial Halo which is available at 2/1 Paddy Power

Bowles, Typing error, 6/4 = 40%, 45% is mid way between 45.5 = 6/5 and 44.4 = 5/4. Have not worked it out, not got started with NH yet. Think on form you may be right Bowles, Celestial Halo has by far the best chance. IF HE CAN run to form. Trouble is Nicholls is on record as saying he'll need it (Boylesports the early target). If this is a "prep", he's unlikely to be pushed into an aggressive ride. CH is best with a test of stamina at 2m. Wincanton is a fairly sharp 2m. Unless he makes a fast pace (unlikely as he has other priorities and may not be 100% fit) may struggle for speed. To be fair Bowles, you may not have heard about the fitness issue at the time of your post. I myself found myself backing Punjabi last year in his Cheltenham Festival prep here; under what seems similar circumstances. Got beet in the Kingwell before Festival victory. Of course Celestial Halo might still be good enough to win.

[bowles10]

Re: Your Professional bets

wasn't going to get involved but. 2.15 Wincanton Celestial Halo 45% 6/4 Blue Bajan 15% 11/2 Whiteoak 14% 6/1 Tasheba 10% 9/1 Mamlook 7.5% 12/1 Katies tuitor 8% 11/1 Marodima 0.5% 200/1 The only horse that beats my price at the moment is Celestial Halo which is available at 2/1 Paddy Power

yes the debate is good but bring on the winners :nana returned 11/4 SP :ok

[bowles10]

Re: Your Professional bets Thanks Ginge The problem i have with Ante post bets is that you don't know what will run at this stage so can't see how a % can be given to a horses chances, but good luck, the horse like Somersby is in my list to follow & will no doubt be one to follow :ok

[Gingertipster]

Re: Your Professional bets

Thanks Ginge The problem i have with Ante post bets is that you don't know what will run at this stage so can't see how a % can be given to a horses chances, but good luck, the horse like Somersby is in my list to follow & will no doubt be one to follow :ok

True Bowles, You don't know what will run at this stage. The way I like to work it out is on AVERAGE runnings of the race. Looking at the last 5 runnings and considering how likely the horse is of producing that average figure. When betting closer to the race it is easier to see if it's likely to be an above or below average renewal.

[BillyHills]

Re: Your Professional bets

Thought I have already done that in my "How To Work Out A 100% Book" thread BH. Please take a look at that and tell me how you want me to elaborate.:ok

I dont care mate, its for the others who may want to understand your methods, just trying to give you a platform although it must be hard to prove without putting any selections up !;) Come on, enough of the waffle, lets be having some winners! Nice winner Rob and a good place for Milen:ok

[chris34]

Re: Your Professional bets Well done you 2 on those!!

[Gingertipster]

Re: Your Professional bets

I dont care mate, its for the others who may want to understand your methods, just trying to give you a platform although it must be hard to prove without putting any selections up !;) Come on, enough of the waffle, lets be having some winners!

:lol Calm down mate. As I said, I have finished betting on the flat, except one or two late bets on the Breeders Cup if they really shout value. Sorry you think it's waffle. Just tried to answer everyone's questions and points. Have not started betting on NH yet. Just be patient BH.;)

[Gingertipster]

Re: Your Professional bets

3.25 Wincanton - Bowleaze 28/1 Sky, 20/1 and 16/1 everywhere else. Certainly without making a tissue it is blindly obvious that 28/1 is overpriced. Horse has record 2,1 .. 1,2 in 06 and 07. And a win in November 08. Finished 2nd lto and clearly the ability is still there. Runs well this time of the year after his summer breaks.The yard is in great form. Most of the horses in the race have this as a prep for other things later in the month. This for me is a value bet without making a tissue or whatsoever. Hope it makes sense :ok

That is exactly what this thread is all about Mileni.:ok 28/1 value in to 18/1 and placed. Well done:clap Bowlease is a bit of a dog, often comes there with a good looking run and finds little. Usually finds one or two too good. As such is certainly an "each way" horse. You don't have to make a tissue to identify value / post value selections.

[RussP]

Re: Your Professional bets Like some, I can't get my head fully around this 100% book. Of course I understand the concept but the issue centres, as BH says, around how much % you allocate to each horse. I can read a race and very often predict that Horse A has more chance than Horse B, who in turn will beat Horse C, etc, etc. However, whether Horse A has a 25% chance or a 30% chance, I have no idea.....that's my issue and where its flawed unless you have solid methods for producing the percentages. Other than Ginge, how do others decide that a 16/1 shot should be more of a 10/1 shot? Gut feeling? I'm really not sure. I'll tell you how I do that (although I've been guilty of breaking my own rules recently). I do look for value but in a completely different way. I look for a horse that I think has a solid chance, usually outside the top few in the betting. Whether I back it or not is dependent on the price I expect to get. Looking at stats, I average a 15% win strike rate and 40% place strike rate. Therefore I work on the basis of a general minimum price of 8/1. If the s/r's hold up and I meet 8/1 every time, I will return a 27.5% yield (basically, profit of £27.50 for every £100 staked). Clearly that will change if I find some winners at 10/1, 12/1, etc (or if I only achieve 15/2 or 7/1). This season has not transpired anywhere near what I'd hoped but above is still my logic. Similarly, I can also work out what the minimum s/r is required to break even. Hope this makes some sense:ok

[jtw1]

Re: Your Professional bets

Like some, I can't get my head fully around this 100% book. Of course I understand the concept but the issue centres, as BH says, around how much % you allocate to each horse. I can read a race and very often predict that Horse A has more chance than Horse B, who in turn will beat Horse C, etc, etc. However, whether Horse A has a 25% chance or a 30% chance, I have no idea.....that's my issue and where its flawed unless you have solid methods for producing the percentages. Other than Ginge, how do others decide that a 16/1 shot should be more of a 10/1 shot? Gut feeling? I'm really not sure. I'll tell you how I do that (although I've been guilty of breaking my own rules recently). I do look for value but in a completely different way. I look for a horse that I think has a solid chance, usually outside the top few in the betting. Whether I back it or not is dependent on the price I expect to get. Looking at stats, I average a 15% win strike rate and 40% place strike rate. Therefore I work on the basis of a general minimum price of 8/1. If the s/r's hold up and I meet 8/1 every time, I will return a 27.5% yield (basically, profit of £27.50 for every £100 staked). Clearly that will change if I find some winners at 10/1, 12/1, etc (or if I only achieve 15/2 or 7/1). This season has not transpired anywhere near what I'd hoped but above is still my logic. Similarly, I can also work out what the minimum s/r is required to break even. Hope this makes some sense:ok

'Value' is a personal variable . What one man may think is value, another will not , therefore it is entirely up to the individual what to bet and how much to bet . At the end of the racing day if you are in profit then be happy :ok

[fintron]

Re: Your Professional bets

Other than Ginge, how do others decide that a 16/1 shot should be more of a 10/1 shot? Gut feeling? I'm really not sure.

Personally I look at the market leaders and see if I think their price is fair. In that race I was on about I think Spinning is a fair price (possibly even could go a bit shorter) but I think some of the others at the head of the market are too short and sloshing the percentages around I redistribute roughly in my head. I think Gaily Noble is way too short at 6/1 and would probably nudge the co-favourite out to 7/2 so straight away that gives me a bit of percentages to play around with - more than enought to accomodate Justcallmehandsome coming into 10/1 from 16/1.

[princecapri]

Re: Your Professional bets

I'll tell you how I do that (although I've been guilty of breaking my own rules recently). I do look for value but in a completely different way. I look for a horse that I think has a solid chance, usually outside the top few in the betting. Whether I back it or not is dependent on the price I expect to get. Looking at stats, I average a 15% win strike rate and 40% place strike rate. Therefore I work on the basis of a general minimum price of 8/1. If the s/r's hold up and I meet 8/1 every time, I will return a 27.5% yield (basically, profit of £27.50 for every £100 staked). Clearly that will change if I find some winners at 10/1, 12/1, etc (or if I only achieve 15/2 or 7/1).

Hi Russ, My knowledge of horse racing or betting isn't nearly as expansive as yours, but I wanted to ask something, so don't mind if its ignorant/silly. In the above, you say that you look at stats to see if it garners a 15% Win SR or 40% Place SR? I have thought of this too, but surely looking at a horse's previous stats (I am assuming you do that?), lets say: if a horse won one race out of 10 at Evens and lost everytime else (5+ odds) and it is available at 12/1, would it be value? (Just wondering). Cheers.

[RussP]

Re: Your Professional bets

Hi Russ, My knowledge of horse racing or betting isn't nearly as expansive as yours, but I wanted to ask something, so don't mind if its ignorant/silly. In the above, you say that you look at stats to see if it garners a 15% Win SR or 40% Place SR? I have thought of this too, but surely looking at a horse's previous stats (I am assuming you do that?), lets say: if a horse won one race out of 10 at Evens and lost everytime else (5+ odds) and it is available at 12/1, would it be value? (Just wondering). Cheers.

No mate, thats not what I'm saying.:ok What I saying is that, from the horses I select (using whatever methods I adopt), I have a 15% win rate. So, if I remain consistent with my selection methods, then I should be able to expect to be in profit over a sustained period, provided my strike rate doesn't fluctuate too dramatically. If you are lookign at a horses chances, then yes, you should take into account the class / type of race a horse has been contesting, rather than just past results (ie, 1st or 2nd). Hope that helps.

[princecapri]

Re: Your Professional bets Sure, gotcha. :)

[Gingertipster]

Re: Your Professional bets

Like some' date=' I can't get my head fully around this 100% book. Of course I understand the concept but the issue centres, as BH says, around how much % you allocate to each horse. I can read a race and very often predict that Horse A has more chance than Horse B, who in turn will beat Horse C, etc, etc. However, whether Horse A has a 25% chance or a 30% chance, I have no idea.....that's my issue and where its flawed unless you have solid methods for producing the percentages.[/quote'] Russ, You may not think you have much idea what is a 25% or 30% chance, but with your record of finding value; you have more idea than you think. Apologies to those who do know the importance of the table, Russ, Mowgli, Bowles, Stewart, Fintron and BH included; but am going to have one (hopefully) last go at persuading the non-believers. To non-believers, One question: If bookies odds compiler can work out what they BELIEVE to be the chances of each runner in a race; WHY CAN'T WE? A bookie's price is only his OPINION, if our OPINIION of those odds are different (and MORE ACCURATE), we can take advantage of bookies / exchange prices. But even if we do NOT want to make a 100% book, it helps ENORMOUSLY to know what the percentages mean in FAIR ODDS terms. (Am using Early Prices because it is easier to explain). To understand the significance of the Fair Odds Table, think it is vital for punters to understand how a bookmaker works his prices out. I know before they open up, bookies nowadays tweak their Early Prices when looking at betfair. So that does influence them a little these days. (Also think the opposite happens. Those who know what bookmakers are going to offer, hoovering up “good” betfair prices, before bookmakers open for business). But let's go back to before betfair, when bookies priced up solely on their odds compiler's opinion. When an odds compiler BELIEVED every horse in a six horse race had a certain percentage chance (to 100%), he then adds a bookies mark up (percentage) to that figure to produce a price the bookmaker can offer to punters. In the example below if the bookie's odds compiler BELIEVED A has a 26.5% (in his OPINION) a FAIR 11/4 shot. He then adds a mark up (in this case 2%) 26.5% + 2% = 28.5% which equates to a price of 5/2 to OFFER punters. A 26.5% 11/4 + 2% = 28.5% 5/2 B 20% 4/1 + 2% = 22% 7/2 C 18% 9/2 + 2% = 20% 4/1 D 12.5% 7/1 + 2% = 14.5% 6/1 E 10% 9/1 + 1.5% = 11.5% 15/2 F 9% 10/1 + 1.5% = 10.5% 17/2 G 4% 25/1 + 1% = 5% 20/1 The first column of percentages adding up to 100% (26.5 + 20 + 18 + 12.5 + 10 + 9 + 4 = 100). At 100% it is possible for a punter to back every horse and still break even. The second column working to 112% (28.5 + 22 + 20 + 14.5 + 11.5 + 10.5 + 5 = 112). If it is an uncompetitive market bookmakers will work to a greater percentage over round. If the punter BELIEVES A has a BETTER than 28.5% chance then he should back A at 5/2. If a punter BELIEVES B has a BETTER than 22% then he should back B at 7/2. Same goes for C if he BELIEVES it has a BETTER than 20% 4/1, D 14.5% 6/1, E 11.5% 15/2, F 10.5% 17/2 and G 5% 20/1. As can be seen in the example above, there is only at most 2% difference (it's rarely as much as 5%) between the chance a bookie / compiler believes a horse to have (fair odds); and the price a bookmaker is willing to offer. Therefore, a punter will struggle to decide whether a horse is a good or bad price if he can not differentiate between a 30% and 25% chance (5% difference). Of course to make an over all profit he needs to be ACCURATE in his ASSESSMENT of percentages / prices.

[James Bondage]

Re: Your Professional bets Honestly I have no idea what percentage chance I think he has at this stage. You make a compelling argument though. I am in truth quite risk averse in my betting. Helpful as in I never chase losses. But maybe a hindrance as in I never bet ante-post. I understand ante-post prices are inflated to take into account the possibility of injury, I just wouldn't wish to see my money down the flusher before the race arrives. As for staying hurdlers I am obviously biased but 'the Drever' gets my vote every day :)

[RuleBritannia]

Re: Your Professional bets

James, I would estimate that Big Bucks has roughly a 40% 6/4 or 42% 11/8 chance right now; including chance of injury. .

Is that including Fiveforthree turning up?

[bowles10]

Re: Your Professional bets

What percentage chance would you think he has at this point in time James? I can only think of possibly one better Staying hurdler (Baracouda) in the last 20 years. So if he runs to form, the others have to improve out of all recognition to win. So I don't think it's a bookies price.

where have you been ginge for the last 3 years, did you not rate Inglis drever at all??? your comment about big bucks is way off the mark until proven. the horse has won 1 world hurdle after a season that started off falling at the 2nd last in the Hennessy when favourite. Had the horse stood up, it would never have been aimed at the world hurdle are you saying big bucks is the best bar barracouda in the last 20 years. Some statement mate. Do you think Big Bucks would have beaten Inglis at its peak?

[Gingertipster]

Re: Your Professional bets

where have you been ginge for the last 3 years, did you not rate Inglis drever at all??? your comment about big bucks is way off the mark until proven. the horse has won 1 world hurdle after a season that started off falling at the 2nd last in the Hennessy when favourite. Had the horse stood up, it would never have been aimed at the world hurdle are you saying big bucks is the best bar barracouda in the last 20 years. Some statement mate. Do you think Big Bucks would have beaten Inglis at its peak?

What has your comment got to do with form? Just because a horse wins a race three times, does not make the form shown any better. Yes, BB would've beaten Inglis, Big Buck's is better than Johnson's star (in ability, if not durability). Inglis was a terrific racehorse, but he never put up one performance as good as Big Buck's's World Hurdle. I suspect BB is better than Baracouda, just not shown it yet. Limestone Lad was another one as good as Baracouda, just didn't show it in Britain. Can't think of another better staying hurdler in the last 20 years. Can you Bowles? Which piece of form Bowles, do you think Inglis put up which is better than BB's World Hurdle?

[Gingertipster]

Re: Your Professional bets

Is that including Fiveforthree turning up?

I heard today he's out for the season. Shame, but as I said, Fivefourthree has been fragile for some time. Did not expect him to run, so yes, my price for BB included the chance of FFT running RB.

[Gingertipster]

Re: Your Professional bets

Won at an SP of 8/1' date=' the kind souls at Skybet only deducted 10p in the £1 on the 11/1 taken too which was a nice bonus, so was effectively backed just under 10/1 :)[/quote'] Excellant winner Fintron, at a good price and well backed too. :ok

[bowles10]

Re: Your Professional bets

What has your comment got to do with form? Just because a horse wins a race three times, does not make the form shown any better. Yes, BB would've beaten Inglis, Big Buck's is better than Johnson's star (in ability, if not durability). Inglis was a terrific racehorse, but he never put up one performance as good as Big Buck's's World Hurdle. I suspect BB is better than Baracouda, just not shown it yet. Limestone Lad was another one as good as Baracouda, just didn't show it in Britain. Can't think of another better staying hurdler in the last 20 years. Can you Bowles? Which piece of form Bowles, do you think Inglis put up which is better than BB's World Hurdle?

Inglis Drever 10 GRADED HURDLE WINS 3 WORLD HURDLES 2005 - BEAT BARRACOUDA 3L 5m48.4s 2007 - BEAT MIGHTY MAN 3/4L 5m 46s 2008 - BEAT KASBAH BLISS 1L 5m 52s 2009 - BIG BUCKS 5m 56s not sure where you think last yhears form was so far superior but all 3 of ID's victories were faster than BB last year. Also, ID beat Barracouda by 3L back in 2005 to take its crown. Undisputedly, between 2005-2008, ID was king & the best staying hurdler we have seen for a while. I assume you are saying BB had something in hand when it won last year?

[Gingertipster]

Re: Your Professional bets Again Bowles, your first few words are about durability, not ability. They are two different things. Times are primarily about how firm the going is, one year can not easily be related to another. You can not just look at one rival that ID beat and say he's the best.... You have to look at the whole race. Many horses run below form for many different reasons. As for beating Baracouda in 2005, when the french horse was 10 years old and on the downgrade... Baracouda had beaten Crystal D'Anay twice by under a length leading up to that run. The previous year he'd beaten the same horse by 13 lengths when second to Iris's Gift (when a bit below form). His decline was there to be seen, having beaten Jonjo's horse the year before. In the race in 2005 Inglis Beat Baracouda, but Rule Supreme (good horse but not that good) was only just behind him. And Westender fairly close up too. Suggest you look at how far Big Bucks and Punchestowns came away from the rest (including Kasbah Bliss who may not have been at his best) in last years race. I do believe BB is had something in hand in last years race, but even without that, he comes out in front of Inglis Drever. I agree with you that Inglis was the best staying hurdler in the years he won at Cheltenham; though interestingly, Timeform don't agree, they rate Mighty Man's Aintree performances higher. Both Big Bucks and Inglis are / were similar types, idlers, we don't know how much they have in hand. But purely on performance rating, BB is ahead of ID.

[bowles10]

Re: Your Professional bets doubt many would agree, come back when the horse has won 10 graded hurdles against the best there was at the time & 3 World Hurdles If you may recall i was one of the 2 people who tipped up BB last year to win the World Hurdle, Alex got 20's, i got 14's as i saw something in the horse back then. there is no doubt that BB could become the best but until it is done, you can't make the statement. Ground conditions were the same as last year on 2 of ID's wins. The race was run to suit BB last year as Ruby switched the horse off. My worry is that the horse is too big & is really a chaser type. I really hope it does win this year & will be on it too.

[Gingertipster]

Re: Your Professional bets

doubt many would agree' date=' [b']come back when the horse has won 10 graded hurdles against the best there was at the time & 3 World Hurdles If you may recall i was one of the 2 people who tipped up BB last year to win the World Hurdle, Alex got 20's, i got 14's as i saw something in the horse back then. there is no doubt that BB could become the best but until it is done, you can't make the statement. Ground conditions were the same as last year on 2 of ID's wins. The race was run to suit BB last year as Ruby switched the horse off. My worry is that the horse is too big & is really a chaser type. I really hope it does win this year & will be on it too.

Still confusing durability with ability Bowles. You doubt. Timeform best ratings. Baracouda 175 Big Buck's 174+ Inglis Drever 169 Now, I think they have Inglis Drever a bit too low; but I don't think they would be that far out.