Your Professional bets~ Debate Only

[fintron]

Re: Your Professional bets the debate about Big Bucks and Inglis Drever aside, there is a prestigious race due to be run on Saturday - the Paddypower Gold Cup, and there has been a bit of movement in the market the last few days. Ballyfitz, available at 20/1 two days ago, is now a best priced 9/1 and as short as 7/1 with some firms, following comments by Nigel Twiston Davies that he feels he has room for improvement off his mark, handles the ground and will have the stamina to see out the trip. He has also won returning from a break previously. The offer Bowles flagged up offered by Paddy's in the stickied thread offers outstanding value - they will return stakes on any loser if a Nicholls runner wins the race, and he saddles up some of the main fancies in this contest. I'm on Ballyfitz under that offer at 16/1 and also ante-post at 20/1. I still think there is a bit of value to be had at 9/1, although wouldn't be rushing to back if he shortened up beyond 7/1 - 8/1 ish between now and Saturday. Twiston-davies won the race last year with Imperial Commander.

[bowles10]

Re: Your Professional bets

the debate about Big Bucks and Inglis Drever aside, there is a prestigious race due to be run on Saturday - the Paddypower Gold Cup, and there has been a bit of movement in the market the last few days. Ballyfitz, available at 20/1 two days ago, is now a best priced 9/1 and as short as 7/1 with some firms, following comments by Nigel Twiston Davies that he feels he has room for improvement off his mark, handles the ground and will have the stamina to see out the trip. He has also won returning from a break previously. The offer Bowles flagged up offered by Paddy's in the stickied thread offers outstanding value - they will return stakes on any loser if a Nicholls runner wins the race, and he saddles up some of the main fancies in this contest. I'm on Ballyfitz under that offer at 16/1 and also ante-post at 20/1. I still think there is a bit of value to be had at 9/1, although wouldn't be rushing to back if he shortened up beyond 7/1 - 8/1 ish between now and Saturday. Twiston-davies won the race last year with Imperial Commander.

yep anyone backing with anothe rbookie is losing out here as the PP offer is excellent should nicholls have 2 or even 3 runners. As per the key race thread, a few of us are on Ballyfitz at 16-20/1 so now have the value on a horse which will be around 8/1 mark on the day.

[fintron]

Re: Your Professional bets I hope he jumps okay as a mark of 146 for a horse thought good enough to enter the RSA at the Fesitval seems quite lenient. He could easily be rated up to a stone higher than that come the end of the season?

[bowles10]

Re: Your Professional bets

I hope he jumps okay as a mark of 146 for a horse thought good enough to enter the RSA at the Fesitval seems quite lenient. He could easily be rated up to a stone higher than that come the end of the season?

Hopefully the race will be run like last year when nTD had imperial commander win this. On the same card, Balyfitz won the novice chase with ease. Seemed to over do it last season but hopefully NTd has it ready.

[RussP]

Re: Your Professional bets Can someone tell me what a 'professional' bet is?:unsure I'm just don't get this thread at all. Ginge, I thought you were serious about your betting so surely every bet you place is a 'professional' bet? What about others? - what makes the horses you post in here different to the ones you put in your own threads or the dailys:unsure

[Gingertipster]

Re: Your Professional bets Russ, I thought I'd start a thread where anyone could put tips up that they thought were particularly good value too. Emphasis on value, not one that just might have the best chance of winning. And more than just a "fancy". I no longer do my thread. Though the way this differs to that thread is I need a bigger percentage gap between my price and bookies price, than I sometimes did there. Got carried away a time or two in my old thread, with too many bets.

[BillyHills]

Re: Your Professional bets I take these are 'paper' bets because the amount of liquidity on Galant Nuit and Lacdoudal at the moment would be absolute peanuts to a 'professional'. Be lucky to get a tenner on each!

[jtw1]

Re: Your Professional bets

I take these are 'paper' bets because the amount of liquidity on Galant Nuit and Lacdoudal at the moment would be absolute peanuts to a 'professional'. Be lucky to get a tenner on each!

;)

[bowles10]

Re: Your Professional bets i think the thread was designed to show off ginge's talents regarding the table of odds and chances (most of us know it inside out by now) however it can only be used to highlight what the individual believes are the value odds, my view is well different from ginge's & so far i dont see many winning bets on here. i see no point of highlighting a decent price only for the horse to be beaten. There is no P/L being recorded other than our individual threads as i & a few others record all our bets for the public to see.

[ELCAKER]

Re: Your Professional bets I think that this is a useful thread, and definitely has legs. Whilst there may be some confusion as to its validity from some corners, I think to some people it does make sense. A place to put up bets whether they be ante-post or on the day fancies that people feel particularly strongly about. We all at times see a horse (or other bet) that we think represents massive value and this is a place to highlight those thoughts. It isn't the place for it here, but I for one believe Arsenal have been massively underrated for the title this year and have had a chunk on at 8's. If I only had one bet this year I would be happy with it to be this... I'm certainly no racing expert but I love this section of the forum and I think Ginge has come up with a very useful concept which I for one support!

[Gingertipster]

Re: Your Professional bets

I take these are 'paper' bets because the amount of liquidity on Galant Nuit and Lacdoudal at the moment would be absolute peanuts to a 'professional'. Be lucky to get a tenner on each!

Hello Bud BH, was the main bet, and it was with a bookmaker. Available for anyone to see on oddschecker. Galant Nuit at 00:45 has £320 matched, and Lacdoudal £88 at 17/1. Don't know how much had gone on by 11:45 BH. But it was probably enough for half bets and saver bets. Some of my half bet was at 7.6/1 anyway. But the price had gone by the time I put the bet up. So I said 7.4/1. Sorry there was not much liquidity at the time but that's not my problem mate. However, the price quoted is just a guide, so that members can see what sort of price is available at the time of writing. The idea of the thread is for anyone to put up a "professional" type of bet anyway. They don't have to put loads of money on them to take part. But as it's obviously touching a nerve with you BH, will no longer use betfair prices.

[Gingertipster]

Re: Your Professional bets

i think the thread was designed to show off ginge's talents regarding the table of odds and chances (most of us know it inside out by now) however it can only be used to highlight what the individual believes are the value odds' date= my view is well different from ginge's & so far i dont see many winning bets on here. i see no point of highlighting a decent price only for the horse to be beaten. There is no P/L being recorded other than our individual threads as i & a few others record all our bets for the public to see.

It was certainly not designed to "show off my talents" Bowles. The whole point of value bets is you don't need many winners to make a profit. I did not want to explain things as much as I did. However, several points and questions were asked / made by PL members, so I thought I'd better answer them. You might not see many winners Bowles. But as Fintron has shown, profit could have been made by following the tips on this thread. You say "most of us know it inside out by now". But you then show little sign of actually understanding it's significance by saying "see no point of highlighting a decent price only for a horse to be beaten". I had no intension of making a profit/loss in this thread. In the same way there is no profit/loss in the BBOTD threads. Because there are multiple contributers.

[Gingertipster]

Re: Your Professional bets

I think that this is a useful thread, and definitely has legs. Whilst there may be some confusion as to its validity from some corners, I think to some people it does make sense. A place to put up bets whether they be ante-post or on the day fancies that people feel particularly strongly about. We all at times see a horse (or other bet) that we think represents massive value and this is a place to highlight those thoughts. It isn't the place for it here, but I for one believe Arsenal have been massively underrated for the title this year and have had a chunk on at 8's. If I only had one bet this year I would be happy with it to be this... I'm certainly no racing expert but I love this section of the forum and I think Ginge has come up with a very useful concept which I for one support!

Many thanks for your support Elcaker. Much appreciated :ok Ginge

[bowles10]

Re: Your Professional bets

It was certainly not designed to "show off my talents" Bowles. The whole point of value bets is you don't need many winners to make a profit. I did not want to explain things as much as I did. However, several points and questions were asked / made by PL members, so I thought I'd better answer them. You might not see many winners Bowles. But as Fintron has shown, profit could have been made by following the tips on this thread. You say "most of us know it inside out by now". But you then show little sign of actually understanding it's significance by saying "see no point of highlighting a decent price only for a horse to be beaten". I had no intension of making a profit/loss in this thread. In the same way there is no profit/loss in the BBOTD threads. Because there are multiple contributers.

BH takes the time each day to show the P/L on BBOTD so its a shame you haven't noticed it. Any form of a bet that a member wishes to put should be in the daily meeting thread as thats what it is there for. Thanks to Fintron for putting up the P/L to date in your thread & no doubt it may show a profit as the idea is show horses that each person believes are "value". I note you daid you don't record your bets here anymore so it will be interesting to see your selections that are put up. The liquidity at 11.45 on those horses wasnt much to be honest, i think there was about £10 for Lacdoudal at those odds. Whatever or whoever you say doesn't understand the table of odds, we all have our methods in selecting horses & thats my point, our opinions will always be different on coming up with a tissue price. e.g when i backed Ballyfitz it looked value at 16's, does it now? Not necessarily & now Chapoturgeon is starting to look more value at its current odds, so now i assume i should back that one also.

[Gingertipster]

Re: Your Professional bets As you might gather Bowles, I am not that much interested in competitions, so I don't read tables. That's just me, does not mean others should not do so. I do look at the threads though, and there were no profit/loss results in the threads. Apologies if I offended yourself or BH. This thread is not a competition and I see no reason for a profit/loss table. I was just trying to improve the chances of PL members showing a profit. I am sorry you feel this has taken away bets from the daily racing thread. It could be argued that other threads (including one you've started) does the same. Taking away the main race from the day's betting. And yet I believed it to be a good inovation. Thought there was room for all of our threads Bowles, but as you clearly feel I am treading on your toes. Let me thank Fintron and others for their interest in this thread and ask them not to put their bets in here again. Consider the thread closed.

[bowles10]

Re: Your Professional bets

As you might gather Bowles, I am not that much interested in competitions, so I don't read tables. That's just me, does not mean others should not do so. I do look at the threads though, and there were no profit/loss results in the threads. Apologies if I offended yourself or BH. This thread is not a competition and I see no reason for a profit/loss table. I was just trying to improve the chances of PL members showing a profit. I am sorry you feel this has taken away bets from the daily racing thread. It could be argued that other threads (including one you've started) does the same. Taking away the main race from the day's betting. And yet I believed it to be a good inovation. Thought there was room for all of our threads Bowles, but as you clearly feel I am treading on your toes. Let me thank Fintron and others for their interest in this thread and ask them not to put their bets in here again. Consider the thread closed.

far from it Ginge you wanted debate, you got it i havent told anyone to close threads, up to you mate if thats YOUR choice i certainly wont stop people posting threads if they are constructive & in line with what the ATR stands for which is reasoning and analysis. There is room for your thread but you need to monitor it. Read it back & all it seems to be is debate between you & others who agree/disagree with your philosophy. In between are about 10 bets which have been lost in the noise. Russ commented on the title of the thread as professional bets implies what bet a pro would consider. Now if the thread was called Value Bets or something similar, i think it may have been received with more enthusiasm i moderate this forum and consider the ATR an excellent forum however when it goes stale we need new ideas. I put up the KEY RACE threads yet you pick on that as a deterrent to the main daily meeting threads. I dont see how 1 or 2 races a week as a sticky causes any bother to the daily threads. As say its up to you, you always seem to want to fight a battle with anyone who comments negatively.:ok

[Gingertipster]

Re: Your Professional bets

Any form of a bet that a member wishes to put should be in the daily meeting thread as thats what it is there for.

It is clear from this comment you do not want this thread to continue Bowles. Words like this discourage me, if it is not wanted then I'd rather stop. Enjoy a debate as I am sure you know. I just defend my opinion in the usual way. Just seems at times when someone can't win an arguement they try and make out I have some other motive. As I said Bowles, I considered your KEY RACE a "good inovation", have enjoyed reading it. Was not criticising it at all. The Fred Winter handicap has taken something away from the Triumph hurdle, but it's well worth it. I thought this thread was a useful one too. Yes, the "tips" have unfortunately been swamped by comments. That is what sometimes happens in debate. Mark

[Spooner]

Re: Your Professional bets I admire you Ginge and like reading your posts....but it comes across as if you are looking to upset a few people or have issues with members and have not resolved them, I like reading your intelligent posts and would take on advice you offered but I think you also like 'debate' a little to much. For instance I think your advice on taking Big Bucks for the world hurdle is cracking advice and makes perfect sense. What i don't like coming onto read is the crap in bold.

[bowles10]

Re: Your Professional bets

It is clear from this comment you do not want this thread to continue Bowles. Words like this discourage me, if it is not wanted then I'd rather stop.

I dont want to labour the point but thats not the point. My wish is that people will use the daily meeting threads for their selections and analysis, reasons :

• Means anyone seeking tips etc for the days racing can know where to look
• Stops people creating threads just to say "XX has a chance etc"
• Keeps the place neat & tidy, sometimes you have to look a long way down the list for a particular thread

My view is that there is a place for this type of thread however we have seen these things spiral out of control before & the comments made were trying to be constrcutive not destructive. Apologies if i come across that way, there are a lot of people to please & sometimes things are taken the wrong way in posts. I devote a high % of my time to this place & don't have the time or inclination to discourage posters whether they are new or old. As i say, continuation is up to you as its your thread. I was happy to contribute as i have along the way. Always happy to consider new ideas & improvements

[Gingertipster]

Re: Your Professional bets

I admire you Ginge and like reading your posts....but it comes across as if you are looking to upset a few people or have issues with members and have not resolved them, I like reading your intelligent posts and would take on advice you offered but I think you also like 'debate' a little to much. For instance I think your advice on taking Big Bucks for the world hurdle is cracking advice and makes perfect sense. What i don't like coming onto read is the crap in bold.

Spooner, Can assure you Spooner, I don't set out to "upset a few people". I don't have issues with anyone. I can have a heated debate with people and forget about it. May be you are right, I do like debate a little too much.:lol Sorry if I take it too far at times. The reason for my bold type stuff is to emphasyse when something is particularly important or responding to a certain point. It is good to here my "advice" is appreciated (at least occasionally).;)

[Spooner]

Re: Your Professional bets :ok Sure it may not be a problem to you but for others when having a 'debate' they may not forget about it so quickly.

[Gingertipster]

Re: Your Professional bets Point taken Spooner. Bowles, Did not want to call it a "value" thread, as it means different things to different people. Did NOT want a D. Thomson idea of a 5/1 to 9/1 alternative to the fav. And did NOT want to discourage those believing a fav or even an odds-on shot was the true value bet. So I called it "professional bets". I thought my expanation of what I consider a professional bet was enough, apparently not. We've spent too long in debate, time to get back to what matters, the racing. Good luck with Ballyfitz mate.:ok

[jtw1]

Re: Your Professional bets Credit where it's due sir :clap Well done on both shouts :ok

[Gingertipster]

Re: Your Professional bets

Great idea ginge ;) not something I get much chance to do because im a form backer the night before sadly due to work but is likely to be something I try and play around with this winter while the jumps are on ;) will certainly read through this all again and also apreciate any websites/books that would help me find out more about this type of betting?

Reading the thread back I missed your post Chris, sorry. The form books and stuff I use are: I only use the sporting life webite to find trainers in form. The form books I use are all from the Timeform stable: The "Perspective" race by race format that comes thrice weekly to make a file. (Was £369 from this weekend to end of season. "Chasers And Hurdlers" annual, horse by horse format with form and breeding of every horse that ran last season. From a few lines about the worst horse to 12 page essays on the best. £70 but the best value book there is. "Statistical Review", all you need to know about trainers records, stallions records etc. £20. And the occasional Racing Post. An American video about paddock judging called "Body Language of the Racehorse" might be useful too. By Bonnie Leadbetter and Chris McCarron. But if you just want to learn more about this way of betting I suggest you look on e-bay for a small book called "Betting the Timeform Way". Think it was just a tenner when I bought it back in the 80's. Even if you don't want to buy Timeform products it gives an insight in to this type of betting. hope that helps Chris.

[fintron]

Re: Your Professional bets there is more than one way to skin a rabbit. We have threads on trends, lists of horses to follow, people that looks for improvers, people that look for well handicapped horses dropped in grade, the point being methods of finding profit vary widely on pl, so its a shame people have been obtrusive in this thread. But i believe in karma and unforunately ginge upset a lot of people by getting on billys case before and making things personal, and that is why i think this thread has more arguments than worthwhile posts.

[BillyHills]

Re: Your Professional bets Ok chaps, take a deep breath, count to ten or whatever. I'm going to restart this thread and move all the useful posts in it and leave the debate to carry on here if anyone can be bothered, i cant say anything without it being taken the wrong way so I certainly wont. Hope that will please Ginge, Fin and whoever.

[chris34]

Re: Your Professional bets

Reading the thread back I missed your post Chris, sorry. The form books and stuff I use are: I only use the sporting life webite to find trainers in form. The form books I use are all from the Timeform stable: The "Perspective" race by race format that comes thrice weekly to make a file. (Was £369 from this weekend to end of season. "Chasers And Hurdlers" annual, horse by horse format with form and breeding of every horse that ran last season. From a few lines about the worst horse to 12 page essays on the best. £70 but the best value book there is. "Statistical Review", all you need to know about trainers records, stallions records etc. £20. And the occasional Racing Post. An American video about paddock judging called "Body Language of the Racehorse" might be useful too. By Bonnie Leadbetter and Chris McCarron. But if you just want to learn more about this way of betting I suggest you look on e-bay for a small book called "Betting the Timeform Way". Think it was just a tenner when I bought it back in the 80's. Even if you don't want to buy Timeform products it gives an insight in to this type of betting. hope that helps Chris.

Cheers ginge will have a hunt round with christmas round the corner ;)

[Gingertipster]

Re: Your Professional bets

there is more than one way to skin a rabbit. We have threads on trends, lists of horses to follow, people that looks for improvers, people that look for well handicapped horses dropped in grade, the point being methods of finding profit vary widely on pl, so its a shame people have been obtrusive in this thread. But i believe in karma and unforunately ginge upset a lot of people by getting on billys case before and making things personal, and that is why i think this thread has more arguments than worthwhile posts.

Fin, I believe only two people on this thread said anything that I am not happy with. Debate is debate, got to expect some banta. As for the "Billy case", I am disappointed you did not see it as a two way thing. But whatever, as far as I am concerned it is in the past. Myself and Billy have had perfectly amicable discussions since. I like discussing racing with Billy, as he clearly one of the most knowledgable punters on here. Even if our opinions differ sometimes. Our problems are all behind us. Realise you are trying to stick up for me, but I think it unwise to bring up old differences. The mods resolved that situation to my satisfaction and certainly don't believe I have been picked on at all.:ok

[Gingertipster]

Re: Your Professional bets

there is more than one way to skin a rabbit. We have threads on trends, lists of horses to follow, people that looks for improvers, people that look for well handicapped horses dropped in grade, the point being methods of finding profit vary widely on pl,

Trends, systems etc. are all very well catered for on PL. But I do think it's a shame we see very little about value. Only in one or two personal threads. There is even a section called "Punters Tools And General Betting Help Forum". Yet something so important to value punters as the table of odds and chances is NOT in there, or anywhere else. It could be of great help for those who WANT to use it.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Your Professional bets

Trends' date=' systems etc. are all very well catered for on PL. But I do think it's a shame we see very little about value. Only in one or two personal threads. There is even a section called "Punters Tools And General Betting Help Forum". Yet something so important to value punters as the table of odds and chances is NOT in there, or anywhere else. It could be of great help for those who WANT to use it.[/quote'] Come on, Ginge. It's not only the table that shows where the value is. It's the gut feeling for the market and the ability of the different horses, which is more important. I don't do tissues, but I can easily spot value when I see the prices. Without table of odds and chances I beat the SP most of the time. This table is for people like you, who can go through the whole card and put %-ages on every horse's chances. Other people like me will see 20/1 on a horse with a good e/w shout and will take it, even if you think the 20/1 is the right price and you'll only play on the 25/1. I think the good tipster is the one that has the feeling for the prices and where the odds compilers of the bookies have got it wrong.