dave Posted August 30, 2004 Share Posted August 30, 2004 All the prices I use here are betfair, there may be better around. Here's a few that stand out initially to me. Anyone have any thoughts on these or any other matches? T Berdych to beat J Bjorkman @ 1.78 Bjorkman will be concentrating on the doubles more than the singles I would think, and has been in pretty poor form. Berdych surprised many people at the Olympics, but he had been threatening all season to breakthrough, and should be the player who wants this most. N Davydenko to beat M Philippoussis @ 1.82 The Aussie has played just twice since Wimbledon, losing both, and you have to ask how fit is he really? Is he just playing because it's a slam? Davydenko has looked solid enough recently and could take out the Scud. A Costa to beat R Federer @ 12.0 Federer has played poorly by his standards since winning in Canada, and has lost his last 2 meetings with Costa, one of them on a hard court. Costa's won a few on the hard courts this year, and I feel that this is priced on reputation. Maybe a lay of Federer 3-0 could be a good bet, at around 1.45. R Sluiter to beat P Mathieu @ 1.77 As far as I can see Mathieu has done nothing to justify being close to 2.1, so Sluiter looks exceptional value. Someone tell me if I'm missing something. C Saulnier to beat G Rusedski @ 2.0 Saulnier destroyed Rusedski when they met earlier in the year, and has been playing pretty well recently. Rusedski has won matches recently, but not very convincingly, and will struggle if he can't make a good start. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
edtkh Posted August 30, 2004 Share Posted August 30, 2004 Re: US Open First Round Agree with you on Berdych there, dave. It's brilliant value given his form really. As for the rest, I really don't fancy too many of your picks. :b Davydenko is out of the question for me unless you know a thing or two about the Scud's fitness I'm not aware of. Similarly, I wouldn't touch Saulnier as this is pretty much a 50-50 match - Rusedski seems to have been rejuvenated of late and this would really be touch-and-go as I reckon Rusedski has had the psychological upperhand over Saulnier in their previous meeting(though that was on grass) when they played in the US a couple of months ago. Picking Costa hardly represents value IMO(not at 12.00 anyway) as he's hardly been half-decent on hardcourts this year(tired as Federer may be, I still see him having too much to see off Costa). Rather than laying Costa, I'd back Federer 3-1 as I can't see past a Federer 3-0 or Federer 3-1 scoreline here. Best of luck for the round nonetheless... :p Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jeffers Posted August 30, 2004 Share Posted August 30, 2004 Re: US Open First Round OK, after about 2 months with no tennis bets, I'm returning to the fold :eek US Open First Round Massu tb Acasuso Grosjean tb Patience Dent tb El Aynaoui 10pts maximum bet Treble @ 1.50 Ladbrokes :eek All the players here are for starters better players than their opponents, have good Grand Slam experience, and are in form at the moment. Massu won the olympics, Grosjean lost in the Quarters to Gonzo, and Dent lost in the semis to Massu. This really should be free money at a decent price. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrmuzeman Posted August 30, 2004 Share Posted August 30, 2004 My Tips Hope that one comes off for you Jeffers although I won't be on it (i'm not too sure about Massu although he probly will win im sure :ok ) Heres my 5 tips for what you may think theyre worth :lol Berdych 2 BT Bjorkman @ 1.83 (willhill) 10Pts This is a great bet IMO. Berdych showed his worth at the Olympics recently beating both Federer and Robredo so is obviously on good form. Bjorkman is a very average player and I think hes actually retired in his last 3 tournys meaning he isnt in the best of shape. Hes probly only bothered about the doubles really anyway :b Andreev 2 BT Verdasco @ 1.83 (Willhill) 10Pts This is also a very good bet. Andreev is a player who seems to beat the poor players and lose to the good ones, this is reflected in his okay 11-10 record on Hardcourts this season. In Verdasco he has a poor hardcourt player. Verdasco has a 1-7 record on the hardcourts and only won his first HC game last week against Alberto Martin and subsequently lost to Davydenko. I cant see why Andreev would not win this as Verdasco is exactly the sort of player he beats. Ljubicic 2 Bt H.T Lee / Morrison 2 Bt Ketola @ 1.93 (Coral) 10pts Double Ljubicic is a very useful solid hardcourt player with a good record this season at 16-9. In contrast Lee is v.poor losing in the 1st round on 7 occasions in hardcourt tournys this season and against much lesser players than Ljubicic. Should go the same way here ;) Morrison has had a decent hardcourt season winning more than he loses. Also has beaten Melzer and Srichaphan recently so is on good form. Ketola on the other hand has been pro for 10 years but hasnt established himself at all and has been playing qualifying tournaments and stuff this season. Despite the low level at which he is playing he still only has 4-7 hardcourt record, pretty awful. Morrison should have no problem whatsoever disposing of Ketola. Tursunov 2 Bt Zabaleta @ 2.02 (Betfair) 6Pts Tursunov should be favourite here definitely. He has a 13-13 record on the HC this season which is okay but his recent form is showing good improvement. Has beaten some decent players this season inc Ancic, Melzer and Karlovic. Zabaleta although very capable on clay is bad on the hard. He has a 2-5 record and his last 2 games have resulted in losses to H.T Lee and Wayne Arthurs :eek . Kucera 2 Bt Malisse @ 3.00 (Bet365) 3Pts Bit dodgy this one hence the 3 points stake but I think this is value. I believe it should be 2.4/2.5 something like that. Both are on poor form and both are equally poor on hardcourts this year. Ive watched Malisse a few times and he seems extremely temperamental and strange which is why I think he cant really be a big fave like he is here. This pick was backed up by the match up this very year on hardcourt which saw Kucera beat Malisse 6-2 6-3 6-4 in straight sets at the Australian Open in the first round. Hopefully this can be a repeat performance. Well theres my picks. 39 points staked, I hope I can get off to a good start. :nana :drums Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jeffers Posted August 30, 2004 Share Posted August 30, 2004 Re: My Tips Other picks: 7pts Mutis tb Baghdatis @ 2.00 Ladbrokes Baghdatis has no experience of a Grand Slam or a proper 5 set match, Mutis is a fairly experienced campaigner and I can't really understand why he is this price to beat the Cypriat - I personally would have him at 1.67. 10pts Novak tb Stepanek @ 1.44 Ladbrokes Ok, Novak hasn't been in great form, but at least he has had time to transfer from the clay season in matches. Stepanek hasn't, and should pay for it here. He also has a bad record in the limited number of slams he has played. :gimme Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jeffers Posted August 30, 2004 Share Posted August 30, 2004 Re: My Tips Also mrmuze, I looked at that Zab v Tursunov bet because I thought evens stood out on Zab, but on further investigation I decided to stay well away from it given recent form :b Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
edtkh Posted August 30, 2004 Share Posted August 30, 2004 Mutis jeffers, agree with you on Mutis - Mutis certainly has that wee bit of edge over Bagdatis in terms of experience. :b Guess the only thing, if any, going for Bagdahtis would be his youth which may well serve as a perfect foil to complement the 'unknown' factor about him. Nevertheless, not enough to warrant any money being placed on the Cypriot against his opponent who had achieved something big back at the French Open when he sent Roddick packing... Personally, I have gone for a Andreev-Mutis-Agassi-Dent-Fish-Federer six-fold for Day 1. :eek Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave Posted August 30, 2004 Author Share Posted August 30, 2004 Re: US Open First Round T Berdych to beat J Bjorkman @ 1.78 Bjorkman will be concentrating on the doubles more than the singles I would think, and has been in pretty poor form. Berdych surprised many people at the Olympics, but he had been threatening all season to breakthrough, and should be the player who wants this most. N Davydenko to beat M Philippoussis @ 1.82 The Aussie has played just twice since Wimbledon, losing both, and you have to ask how fit is he really? Is he just playing because it's a slam? Davydenko has looked solid enough recently and could take out the Scud. A Costa to beat R Federer @ 12.0 Federer has played poorly by his standards since winning in Canada, and has lost his last 2 meetings with Costa, one of them on a hard court. Costa's won a few on the hard courts this year, and I feel that this is priced on reputation. Maybe a lay of Federer 3-0 could be a good bet, at around 1.45. R Sluiter to beat P Mathieu @ 1.77 As far as I can see Mathieu has done nothing to justify being close to 2.1, so Sluiter looks exceptional value. Someone tell me if I'm missing something. C Saulnier to beat G Rusedski @ 2.0 Saulnier destroyed Rusedski when they met earlier in the year, and has been playing pretty well recently. Rusedski has won matches recently, but not very convincingly, and will struggle if he can't make a good start. Ok, I've ended up going for T Berdych to beat J Bjorkman 7pts @ 1.74 R Sluiter to beat P Mathieu 5pts @ 1.85 LAY Federer 3-0 5pts risked @ 1.44 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt Posted August 31, 2004 Share Posted August 31, 2004 Re: US Open First Round Ive gone for Andreev as well should have the game to take out Verdasco on these courts. Another for me is Popp to beat Starace at 2.10 betfair Popp has a great serve and I really fancy him to blow the clay courter away here, Starace has been winning matches but I dont believe he can take out Popp here. All of Staraces recent form is on clay and I dont se why he is fave agaisnt a player whos game is suited to a hard court. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrmuzeman Posted August 31, 2004 Share Posted August 31, 2004 hmm Intersting Jeffers about thinking Zab was value against Tursunov. I thought Bagdhatis might be value against Mutis :eek Oh well lets see how they all go, hopefully we can all get a good run :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jeffers Posted August 31, 2004 Share Posted August 31, 2004 Re: hmm Baghdatis won 3-1 :loon LAY to win 10pts Henman to beat Karlovic 3-0 @ 3.80 Betfair This is a very tough draw for Henman and Karlovic, with his massive serve, should definately take at least a set here. :nana Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrmuzeman Posted August 31, 2004 Share Posted August 31, 2004 AAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHH! Jeez just witnessed the most ANNOYING match. :banghead Andreev lost to Verdasco 3-6 4-6 6-4 6-2 5-7 :banghead I kept track from midway through the 2nd set. Verdasco took 3/5 break points. Andreev took 3/20 :banghead He also had 4 MATCH POINTS in the final set at 5-4, ffs :banghead Great way to begin my US open :sad Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt Posted August 31, 2004 Share Posted August 31, 2004 US Open First Round was unbelievable muzeman, shocking conversion rate on the crucial points. :( Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tulenos Posted August 31, 2004 Share Posted August 31, 2004 US Open First Round There must be something in the head of those players like Andreev and Rusedski who also managed to lose from two matchpoints. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrmuzeman Posted August 31, 2004 Share Posted August 31, 2004 Yeah I hated it so much! Espesh the repeated match points and the inability to convert double break points. :banghead Just had the blow eased though, my Kucera to beat Malisse bet just came in. 6-1 1-6 1-6 6-4 6-1 :eek I think my analysis on Malisse being well dodgy was backed up by this scoreline! :lol Ahh well only a bit down on the day now with more bets to come tomorrow, thank fu@k for Kucera. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tulenos Posted August 31, 2004 Share Posted August 31, 2004 US Open First Round Was just going to post the scoreline inthe Kucera match - well, a five setter with 4 out of 5 set being 6-1 - those guys were in a hurry, probably didn't want to miss watching a different match or something:) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest 1ted Posted August 31, 2004 Share Posted August 31, 2004 what's wrong with popp? hey, do you know what's wrong with that match? Willhill and bet365 are not offering live betting - what's wrong? Could it be some kind of light injury? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tulenos Posted August 31, 2004 Share Posted August 31, 2004 US Open First Round It's over - Starace won. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Striker Posted August 31, 2004 Share Posted August 31, 2004 What About The Girls! Hi Everyone A bet on the WTA for me Tuesday JILL CRAYBAS to beat Pisnik 3pts @ 2.00 [Paddy Power] Two out of form Women here,in particular Pisnik who is having her worse season for some time. At least American Craybas has been competitive on this Hardcourt surface,reaching the Quarter Finals at Miami earlier in the year. Both players look evenly matched,and that should be reflected in the prices,so surprised that Craybas is made the clear "Dog" here,and at the available Evens looks worth chancing. Best of Luck Tennis betting this week Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jeffers Posted August 31, 2004 Share Posted August 31, 2004 Fcuk the girls! Mens Round 1 Schuettler vs Seppi 1pt Schuettler 3-2 @ 9.00 Bet365 1pt Seppi 3-2 @ 10.00 Bet365 Seppi has been under-rated in this for me. He's had a few wins in challengers on hard and has took a couple of notable scalps this year. Rainer likes a battle, and has yet to win a match on the US hard court circuit - it all adds up to a close encounter 8o Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt Posted August 31, 2004 Share Posted August 31, 2004 US Open First Round shocker for me yesterday but Ill come back winners as the only way I know how ;) big treble for me on Gambill, Nalbandian and Joachim Johansson, pays 1.66 at VC's and all 3 players are a class above thier opponents over this distance. Other bet is Zabaleta to beat Tursunov, I know the form says I should be picking this the other way round but I cant ignore the difference in ability here, Zabaleta is still touted by some as potential GS winner, Tursunov is a good player but a journeyman. Evens was availble but thats gone so I have to settle for 1.92 at betfair. :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrmuzeman Posted September 1, 2004 Share Posted September 1, 2004 Ljubicic? Hey guys, Ljubicic was 6-3 3-6 1-1 in his game then retired injured does this mean my ljubicic/morrison double is now a losing bet? Im fearing it probably does...so annoying :\ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrmuzeman Posted September 1, 2004 Share Posted September 1, 2004 Yep Its been put as losing bet in my account. Great :banghead Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Striker Posted September 1, 2004 Share Posted September 1, 2004 Result Craybas WON 6-2,6-1 Profit:3pts:cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tulenos Posted September 1, 2004 Share Posted September 1, 2004 US Open First Round mrmuzeman - depends on the bookie and the rules - most books would settle as a void bet, surprisingly enough Laddies not. But the general policy is to void bets in such cases so it may be worth your while to check the tennis rules @ the books you are going to place your bet. Hope it helps. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrmuzeman Posted September 1, 2004 Share Posted September 1, 2004 Thanx mate Cheers for the info but theyve put it as a losing bet which pisses me off but I wouldnt be complaining if the other player retired so it works both ways I guess. Again blow is reduced as Tursunov just beat Zabaleta in 5 sets. If my final bet comes in tomorrow I'll have lost only a very tiny bit on the first round so its not too bad IF Berdych beats Bjorkman tomorrow. Fingers crossed :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingForTheEnemy Posted September 1, 2004 Share Posted September 1, 2004 Re: Thanx mate Taken from Ladbrokes rules on their website: A Tennis match is deemed to have started with the first serve of the match. If the statutory number of sets is not completed, all bets placed on the correct set result will be void. In the event of a match being awarded to a player before the full number of sets have been played, match bets will stand for the official winner. Set betting will be void. Sorry mate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrmuzeman Posted September 1, 2004 Share Posted September 1, 2004 oh well What can you do? I mean theres no allowing for that sort of thing, injuries etc. so it aint a bad bet or anything. I'm still gonna make a profit this U.S Open, im confident :cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrmuzeman Posted September 1, 2004 Share Posted September 1, 2004 Jeffers Great tip on Schuettler / Seppi mate, you the man :ok I didnt take you up on the tip though unfortunately, im stupid! :unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jeffers Posted September 1, 2004 Share Posted September 1, 2004 Re: Jeffers Cheers mrmuze. I noticed Stan James had made the biggest error I've ever seen in tennis betting history tonight, going 8/15 on the 1st set of Roddick v Jenkins being under 10 games :rollin :rollin :rollin :rollin :rollin :lol :lol :lol :rollin :rollin :lol :lol :rollin I hope they got slapped like they deserve, personally I think that should have been 5/6 under 8 games. Grosjean tb Patience Nalbandian tb Van Scheppingen 10pts @ 1.30 Ladbrokes Nothing much to say about this other than they are a class above and it is free cash. :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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