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UEFA Champions League ( 28-29 April )


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Re: UEFA Champions League ( 28-29 April ) Why has no one mentioned the fact Barcelona should have had a penalty? ... It was actually a blatant penalty. I am positive if it was at the other end there would be several people complaining. Anyway we will just have to wait until next week I suppose but for the sake of football I'd much rather see Barcelona in the final.

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Re: UEFA Champions League ( 28-29 April )

Why has no one mentioned the fact Barcelona should have had a penalty? ... It was actually a blatant penalty. I am positive if it was at the other end there would be several people complaining. Anyway we will just have to wait until next week I suppose but for the sake of football I'd much rather see Barcelona in the final.
There were loads of deceisions that didn't go either way in that game. I thought the referee had lost the game at one point.
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Re: UEFA Champions League ( 28-29 April ) PPL, I don't get it, so many negative comments on Chelsea, what is wrong with you? It's CL and not "want-to show- 90 mins-ball-tricks" contest on Rio de Janeiro Copacabana Beach!! Just for those who don't get it: The Blues became the first visiting side to keep a clean sheet at the Camp Nou this season. :ok C'moooon, show a little bit of respect, for your british team. They got maximum out of Camp Nou, no one will speak about their defensive destructive play, when they advance and probably win this CL. It's all about tactical chess match, placing right footed Bosingwa against left footed Messi was kind of tactical masterpiece and Hiddink exactly knows what to do in 2nd leg, and you can be sure, he won't let the Catalans humiliating Chelsea in front of own crowd. Just start to believe in this guy, he is by far best coach this year in european scene. Hail Hiddink!!:notworthy

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Re: UEFA Champions League ( 28-29 April )

Just start to believe in this guy' date=' he is by far best coach this year in european scene. Hail Hiddink!!:notworthy[/quote'] So he made Cech save 3 clear chances and he also told the ref not to give Barcelona the stone wall penalty they should have had? The game should already be over in all honesty.
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Re: UEFA Champions League ( 28-29 April )

So he made Cech save 3 clear chances and he also told the ref not to give Barcelona the stone wall penalty they should have had? The game should already be over in all honesty.
C'mon mate, you have to admit, Barca's most important offensive weapon Messi was well neutralized. Chelsea didn't allow many chances, though Barca was dominating in ball possession. Barca had some chances, ok, but if they want to play in CL final, they have to nail them, not failing like Bojan in last mins. What I don't get at all is Pep's decision to substitute Henry AND Eto'o before even being in front!! This was a poor decision but understandable if you talk to spanish mates, who all say, that Real clash at weekend is much more important for catalans then CL. But if I want to rest them, I do it around 65-70 mins, not in 80s. both are great lethal strikers and I'm quite sure each of them would have scored instead of youngster Bojan alone in front of goal.
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Re: UEFA Champions League ( 28-29 April )

Ok, even if we accept that the two leagues are of even quality (I don't I think the EPL has 5 - 10% on la liga) then a top team from England shouldn't be 6.0 away to one in spain. So, we'll say a top team in England is at the same standard as a team in Spain ? Look at the pricing for this match in the last round
Liverpool v Chelsea (19:45BST) 2.403.153.45
The pricing in tonights game seemed to suggest that a top team in spain was being rated higher than one in England. That was my point about the strength of leagues. Tonights match should have been priced exactly the same as the one at Anfield in my view, the book was way out of whack. Classic example of footballing emotion versus hard analaysis and money. Here's another example Real Madrid v Liverpool (19:45GMT) 2.20 3.30 3.80 Why was tonight priced so differently ?
This argument just doesnt make sense AJ..... When a bookies is pricing a team, they do not price them on the quality of their league, they price them on their form, their talent and other contributing factors (such as home record/away record). Barca V Chelsea was priced differently from the two examples above because Barca V Chelsea is a completely different game to Madrid V Liverpool. And JK I hope you were not suggesting I was posting niave tripe..? I am not questioning the EPL, I was just saying there was no need to slag off the Scottish league or make generalisations about out views. I believe the EPL is one of the best leagues in the world, of course it is.
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Re: UEFA Champions League ( 28-29 April )

Barca V Chelsea was priced differently from the two examples above because Barca V Chelsea is a completely different game to Madrid V Liverpool.
Why? The only difference I can see is that the stage of the CL was different and OBVIOUSLY that both sets of teams are different in name and on paper. AJ is right in saying that the game was priced up totally wrong. Are the bookmakers trying to tell us that there is such a gulf in class between a Spanish side and an English side?
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Re: UEFA Champions League ( 28-29 April ) We'll just have to agree to disagree on this one; when I price matches, I certainly factor in the strength of the leagues that teams play in. That's a key factor in judging the level of their talent. I still think that Barca vs Chelsea is very close to Madrid vs Liverpool. Certainly there is a vast discrepancy, chelsea were nearly double the price of Liverpool. I refuse to accept that chelsea are that much worse than Liverpool or that Barca are that much better than Madrid. Neither teams domestic league table atests to that fact. The market was badly out of whack, that is why I had to oppose Barca, despite my personal desire for them to progress to the final (i've always had a soft spot for them and their style of football). However that's the past, let's look at tonight. Manchester United are too short for me at 1.90, although Arsenal without Arsheven and RVP upfront may lack a threat. I want the home win, so I'm going to leave this one alone. I did consider a under 2.5 goals, but have decided to leave this one alone.

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Re: UEFA Champions League ( 28-29 April )

To qualify for final Barcelona 4/6 Chelsea 11/10 At least the bookies know...
I think these prices are fair enough, failing to win at home isn't as bad as not scoring an away goal. Barca only need the draw, yeah I'd have them as favs. I never stated that Barca were a worse team than Chelsea, simply that the game was wrongly priced last night.
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Re: UEFA Champions League ( 28-29 April ) I'm going to stick my neck out and tip Arsenal +0.5 @ 2.17 Football recently has been littered with games where the odds don't reflect real life, and demonstrate an over reaction to major events. Manchester United haven't played well for at least 8 games and were being outplayed on Sunday by Spurs before being gifted a route back into the game. Don't be fooled by the 5-2 scoreline, and it should not be taken as an indication of how well they are playing. United were gifted their first and Gomes should have saved at least two others, after Spurs were so deflated from what was quite clearly not a penalty. Odds of 1.80 for the home side are there purely to attract the big hitters, who get sucked in because everyone expects Manchester United to steam roller Arsenal. I believe someone on here said Arsenal haven't lost to United in 4 semi final attempts? An impressive stat. Team news from either side doesn't really put me off. Arsenal showed thet can cope with defensive absentees recently. With Vela, Eduardo or Bendtner ready to replace Van Persie, there is no problem there for me. If things don't go their way, I'd expect Ronaldo to continuously throw his little hissy fits. I think it's been well documented how Ronaldo never tracks back any more (if he ever did) this means more work for players like Carrick. That is something Arsenal can exploit, the same way Porto did at Old Trafford.

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Re: UEFA Champions League ( 28-29 April )

Why? The only difference I can see is that the stage of the CL was different and OBVIOUSLY that both sets of teams are different in name and on paper. AJ is right in saying that the game was priced up totally wrong. Are the bookmakers trying to tell us that there is such a gulf in class between a Spanish side and an English side?
:lol:lol How dare they even consider it eh..? I think this exactly what the bookies are trying to tell us, Barcelona for me are a better side than Chelsea and Liverpool. Maybe thats just my opinion but I believe thats why we have seen just a difference in the odds, not to mention differences in forms etc since Liverpool V Chelsea played.
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Re: UEFA Champions League ( 28-29 April )

We'll just have to agree to disagree on this one; when I price matches, I certainly factor in the strength of the leagues that teams play in. That's a key factor in judging the level of their talent. I still think that Barca vs Chelsea is very close to Madrid vs Liverpool. Certainly there is a vast discrepancy, chelsea were nearly double the price of Liverpool. I refuse to accept that chelsea are that much worse than Liverpool or that Barca are that much better than Madrid. Neither teams domestic league table atests to that fact. The market was badly out of whack, that is why I had to oppose Barca, despite my personal desire for them to progress to the final (i've always had a soft spot for them and their style of football). However that's the past, let's look at tonight. Manchester United are too short for me at 1.90, although Arsenal without Arsheven and RVP upfront may lack a threat. I want the home win, so I'm going to leave this one alone. I did consider a under 2.5 goals, but have decided to leave this one alone.
I can see where your coming from AJ, just I personally wouldnt use the quality of leagues as criteria for judging who'll win a match such as last nights......unless the quality of leagues are so far apart it must be a contributing factor. But I see what your meaning :ok
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Re: UEFA Champions League ( 28-29 April )

I'm going to stick my neck out and tip Arsenal +0.5 @ 2.17 Football recently has been littered with games where the odds don't reflect real life, and demonstrate an over reaction to major events. Manchester United haven't played well for at least 8 games and were being outplayed on Sunday by Spurs before being gifted a route back into the game. Don't be fooled by the 5-2 scoreline, and it should not be taken as an indication of how well they are playing. United were gifted their first and Gomes should have saved at least two others, after Spurs were so deflated from what was quite clearly not a penalty. Odds of 1.80 for the home side are there purely to attract the big hitters, who get sucked in because everyone expects Manchester United to steam roller Arsenal. I believe someone on here said Arsenal haven't lost to United in 4 semi final attempts? An impressive stat. Team news from either side doesn't really put me off. Arsenal showed thet can cope with defensive absentees recently. With Vela, Eduardo or Bendtner ready to replace Van Persie, there is no problem there for me. If things don't go their way, I'd expect Ronaldo to continuously throw his little hissy fits. I think it's been well documented how Ronaldo never tracks back any more (if he ever did) this means more work for players like Carrick. That is something Arsenal can exploit, the same way Porto did at Old Trafford.
i think you need to watch the YANAYTED - TOTTY game again mate TEVEZ coming on in the 2nd half was a masterstroke by fergie....YANAYTED tore them apart in the 2nd half. I cant see anything but a win for the home side at the Theatre of Dreams :ok
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Re: UEFA Champions League ( 28-29 April )

i think you need to watch the YANAYTED - TOTTY game again mate TEVEZ coming on in the 2nd half was a masterstroke by fergie. Oh and It was a penalty and Gomez should've been sent off as the last line in defence...YANAYTED tore them apart in the 2nd half. I cant see anything but a win for the home side at the Theatre of Dreams :ok
Do you make this statement before or after Howard Webb came out and admitted it wasn't a penalty? Masterstroke? Fergie threw on all four of his extremely excellent strikers, and it's a masterstroke? Redknapp admitted himself that after they conceded the "penalty" the Spurs players heads dropped and it was a deciding factor in the outcome of the game because until that point, Spurs were still playing well. Uniteds 2nd goal was palmed into the net by Gomes at his near post. The 3rd was poor judgment and decision making from Gomes. The 4th was where the ball was literally an inch over the line, and the 5th was after Gomes palmed the ball into the path of Berbatov. So...I was wrong, 4 goals were down to Gomes and the 5th was a very dodgy pen. I am a United fan by the way, just trying to weigh the game up in an unbiased fashion.
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Re: UEFA Champions League ( 28-29 April )

I think this exactly what the bookies are trying to tell us' date=' Barcelona for me are a better side than Chelsea and Liverpool. Maybe thats just my opinion but I believe thats why we have seen just a difference in the odds, not to mention differences in forms etc since Liverpool V Chelsea played.[/quote'] I've made this point on here before. We can't really say which league is superior in quality to another. The only way you would tell is if we had a really big league involving all side from La Liga and the EPL to see which teams come out on top. How do you measure the superiority of one league over another? Also, if Barcelona were truly better than Chelsea, they would have won quite comfortably last night.
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Re: UEFA Champions League ( 28-29 April ) Tonight I will lay ManU/Arsenal HT/FT 0.5/10 @51.00 and Arsenal/ManU HT/FT 0.5/10 @26.00. For me reasoning is that Arsenal usually do not perform so well during the first half (although this is changing recently) while they usually come strong in the second half. As for ManU they can also be caught by surprise as we have the fresh example from the Tottenham game. Overall those two scenarios are not very likely to happen but IMO there is definately some value :)

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Re: UEFA Champions League ( 28-29 April ) ManUtd v Arsenal One good thing about tonights match is that they are from the same league, so we don't have to compare leagues at all. cue the north south rivalry. Another 0-0 tonight does not look likely as both teams have a fair understanding of each other, so Arsenal will not be as negative as Chelsea last night. Arsenal's recent away record has started to produce goals but without some key players tonight I just can't see them getting 4 like at Anfield. As mentioned already, Walcott should be able to do the same damage that Lennon did last weekend, and create chances. Spurs, Porto, Villa, Liverpool and even Blackburn have all scored at OT, so I will be going for both teams to score. The Ref Larsen tends to let games move without much intervention, so he wont be a major factor unlike the last ref at OT - Webb. With the ref factor in mind I will also select the time of booking to be after the 30min mark. Selections: Both Teams to Score @ 10/11 Time of first Booking - After 30th Min @ 10/11 Not outstanding odds but I am undecided on the outright winner of tonight's match.

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Re: UEFA Champions League ( 28-29 April )

I've made this point on here before. We can't really say which league is superior in quality to another. The only way you would tell is if we had a really big league involving all side from La Liga and the EPL to see which teams come out on top. How do you measure the superiority of one league over another? Also, if Barcelona were truly better than Chelsea, they would have won quite comfortably last night.
Your actually agreeing with me without knowing it Jase m8......I am agreeing that its difficult to say the EPL is better than La Liga or vica versa....one thing is for sure, they are both DEFINATLY up there...... And for your second point about Barca not being better than Chelsea bcause they never won comfortably last night, I think we've all seen enough football in our lives to know this is not how it generally works, Barcelona had numerous chances to win, fair play to Chelsea, they stood strong at the back and through some luck and good defending they kept the Catalans out. But IMO Barcelona are the better, more talanted side, not a dig at Chelsea or the EPL, but thats my opinion. Anyways on to tonights exciting match up...... Manchester United V Arsenal Where to start with this one.....?? Two of the biggest teams in Europe going head to head, what makes this even more exciting and interesting for me is that its a CL game and not the normal EPL game, this may indicate that we'll be in for a different style of game to that of a league encounter. I think Arsenal certainly contain enough in midfeild and with Adebayor leading the line they have the ability to create United problems tonight. Manchester United, one of the best teams in the world on their day, have been slightly off form recently.....they NEED a big performance from their start men tonight Ronaldo and Rooney. United currently are priced at an under-valued 1.79 (betfair) in my opinion. Considering recent performances and the amount of games Sir Alex's side have had to play recently I just have to slightly question this price. I do feel both sides have the ability to score tonight and at 1.92 on Betfair I may have a sneaky nibble on that. Arsenal for me at 5.7 is simply a massive price.......I'd be more confident of Arsenal winning tonight than I was with Chelsea winning last night in Spain, therefore I may look at this price as value and have a small nibble on this also. The draw at 3.7 also represents some sort of value for me, as we seen from last nights game, teams at home while wanting to score, are desperate not to lose and away goal, team away from home, while trying to defend and not concede would love the chance of an away goal. Going into the last quarter of the game at 0-0 I could see Arsenal sitting in and settling for a similar result to that of their London rivals.......hopefully we are in for an interesting game.....my bets..... Both teams to score @ 1.92 - Medium stakes on this Arsenal to win @ 5.7 - Small stakes on this for pure value reasons Draw @3.7 - May have a small bet on this in running GL all :ok
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Re: UEFA Champions League ( 28-29 April )

Manchester United v Arsenal There is no history to go on for these 2 teams against one another in The Champions League and taking into account EPL history is not guaranteed due to the nature of a 2 leg match with a different type of referee! So where do we look for value? My guess is through who the referee is for tonights game! Claus Bo Larsen (Den) (Stats courtesy of http://www.statbunker.com/football/btb/index.php?PL=referee&RefID=14037&season=2001&CompID=&RefCompType=&StatType=byRecordSeason) Bo Larsen has ref'd in the Champions League for 6 years, however he has continously ref'd from 04/05 years competition until the present day! He only ever ref'd one game in the 2nd year of inception 01/02 season in a Group stage 1 game: Date: 10/10/01 - Lille 1 v 1 Deportivo La Coruna - 1 yellow card Duscher (DC) 14 mins His next games as follows: Champions League 04/05 Season Date: 20/10/04 - Anderlecht 1 v 2 Werder Bremen - 4 yellow cards Ismael (WB) 6 mins - Stalteri (WB) 24 mins - Wilhemson (A) 29 mins - Sculz (WB) 56 mins Date: 23/11/04 - Monaco 1 v 0 Liverpool - 3 yellow cards Traore (L) 41 mins - Hamann (L) 45 mins - Warnock (L) 81 mins Date: 07/12/04 - Shaktar Donetsk 2 v 0 Barcelona - 2 yellow cards Matuzalem (SD) 55 mins - Duljaj (SD) 63 mins Champions League 05/06 Season Date: 28/09/05 - FC Schalke 2 v 2 AC Milan - 2 yellow cards Kaka (AC) 73 mins - Poulson (FC) 82 mins Date: 23/11/05 - Barcelona 3 v 1 Werder Bremen - 2 yellow cards & 1 penalty to Werder Fahrenhorst (WB) 10 mins - Marquez (B) 29 mins Champions League 06/07 Season Date: 31/10/06 - Spartak Moscow 0 v 1 Inter Milan - No Bookings Champions League 07/08 Season Date: 03/10/07 - Werder Bremen 1 v 3 Olympiakos - 2 yellow cards Ledesma (O) 70 mins - Sanogo (WB) 90 mins Date: 24/10/07 - Besiktas 2 v 1 Liverpool - No Bookings Date: 27/11/07 - Man Utd 2 v 1 Sporting Lisbon - 4 yellow cards Had (SL) 47 mins - Ronaldo (MU) 80 mins - Evra (MU) 83 mins - Polga (SL) 88 mins Date: 20/02/08 - Arsenal 0 v 0 AC Milan - 3 yellow cards Pato (AC) 33 mins - Senderos (A) 70 mins - Eboue (A) 81 mins Date: 20/04/08 - QF 1ST LEG - Fenerbahce 2 v 1 Chelsea - No Bookings Champions League 08/09 Season Date: 17/09/08 - Steaua Bucharest 0 v 1 Bayern Munich - 3 Bookings Golan (SB) 42 mins - Lovin (SB) 69 mins - Podolski (BM) 88 mins Date: 24/02/09 - Arsenal 1 v 0 Roma - 5 Bookings & 1 penalty to Arsenal Mexes ® 13 mins - Brighi ® 24 mins - De Rossi ® 42 mins Toure (A) 46 mins - Nasri (A) 65 mins Date: 08/04/09 - QF 1ST LEG - Liverpool 1 v 3 Chelsea - 3 yellow cards Kalou © 31 mins - Terry © 61 mins - Aurelio (L) 74 mins Looking through Bo Larsen's stats he is a very lenient referee! In 15 games in The Champions League history that he has been the referee: 2 penalties 34 yellow cards 0 red cards He has never been the referee for a semi final or final before only 2 x 1st leg Quarter Finals for the last 2 years giving out int total in both those games 3 yellow cards which were all given in this years 1st leg at Anfield between Liverpool v Chelsea! He has been referee for Man Utd one time giving them 2 yellow cards. He has been referee for Arsenal 2 times giving them 2 yellow cards in both games - 4 in total. Due to the nature of this being the 1st time these 2 have met in a Champions League semi final and it is a 2 legged affair, I would rather leave the prediction of who will win this particular leg. I have to lean towards pure value on a lenient referee and also looking into any likely suspects for the 1st card shown. With the impetus very much on Man Utd achieving a positive result due to this being their home leg, it is up to the home team to assert their authority and you would think from the start with a baying crowd behind them if and when the 1st card is shown it is likely to be against an Arsenal player! Arsenal Discipline 08/09 Season (Euorpean cards in red):
LG FA LC EUR TOT
Y R
Van Persie4110003081
Adebayor4100001051
Bendtner1020001040
Nasri3010002060
Walcott0000000000
Arshavin0000000000
Gallas3020000050
Vela1000000010
Eboue1110001031
Denilson2010001040
Fabregas5000001060
Eduardo0000000000
Diaby5000002070
Silvestre0000001010
Song Billong6000002080
Clichy7000002090
Toure3010001050
Wilshere0000000000
Ramsey1000100020
Frimpong0000000000
Merida0000100010
Dunne0000000000
Emmanuel-Thomas0000000000
Almunia0000000000
Cruise0000000000
Sagna4000001050
Szczesny0000000000
Murphy0000000000
Gibbs1000001020
Freeman0000000000
Coquelin0000000000
Mannone0000000000
Bischoff0000000000
Fabianski0000000000
Djourou1000001020
Looking at Arsenal's discipline in Europe we could find some value in trying to predict who may get a card first as William Hill go 12/1 bar for an Arsenal player being shown the 1st card. With Van Persie and Clichy injured and Arshavin not eligible to play, we can wittle it down to just a few likely suspects: Arsenal (from): Almunia, Sagna, Toure, Silvestre, Gibbs, Nasri, Song, Denilson, Fabregas, Walcott, Adebayor, Fabianski, Djourou, Eduardo, Bendtner, Diaby, Vela, Ramsey, Eboue. As I can see Arsenal on the backfoot in this game due to their defensive frailities I consider midfield and defence the area where the 1st card is likely to come from. So taking this into account: Outfield Defence should consist of: Eboue, Toure, Silvestre, Gibbs, Midfield should consist of: Walcott, Denilson, Fabregas, Nasri This season; Eboue has played 10 times (4 as sub) in europe with 1 yellow card Toure has played 7 times in europe with 1 yellow card Silvestre has played 5 times in europe with 1 yellow card Gibbs has played 2 times (1 as sub) in europe with1 yellow card Walcott has played 8 times (1 as sub) in europe 0 cards Denilson has played 12 times (1 as sub) in europe with 1 yellow card Fabregas has played 8 times in europe with 1 yellow card Nasri has played 8 times with 2 yellow cards Taking into account times played against cards given that would make Nasri, Gibbs or Silvestre most likely to get that 1st card. Predictions: No Red Card To Be Shown @1.25 Paddypower Card Index 40 points or less @1.83 Paddypower Yellow Card=10 Points Red Card=25 points. 1st Booking 30 mins or after @1.91 Paddypower 1st Carded Player: Nasri @17.00 William Hill Gibbs @13.00 William Hill Silvestre @ 13.00 William Hill No Cards @23.00 William Hill My methods here are to seek value and whilst not everyone will agree, I base my picks on stats because they never lie! :ok
Some amount of effort and research gone into this Jonesy, fair play to you :clap:clap excellent write up...... I hope it comes through for you :hope
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Re: UEFA Champions League ( 28-29 April )

Your actually agreeing with me without knowing it Jase m8......I am agreeing that its difficult to say the EPL is better than La Liga or vica versa....one thing is for sure' date=' they are both DEFINATLY up there......[/quote'] That's good then, because I wasn't sure entirely which side of the fence you were on!
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Re: UEFA Champions League ( 28-29 April )

by having a competition called the Champions league.
The Champions league doesn't indicate which European league is superior. It's a knockout competition, so the best teams are usually the teams that are more tactically astute and set up better for cup competitions, hence why Liverpool always do well.
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Re: UEFA Champions League ( 28-29 April ) Man Utd v Arsenal - under 2.5 goals @ 1.8 betfair These semi finals are usually cagey affairs and I dont expect much difference tonight. Arsenal will line up with their customary 4-5-1 in Europe and try to play Man U on the counter attack.

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Re: UEFA Champions League ( 28-29 April ) Personally i'd play Vela and hope he infects the mancs with swine flu but I dont think Wenger will go for that so i'd expect something like: Almunia Sagna Toure Djourou Gibbs Walcott Song Nasri Diaby Fabregas Adebayor Dependent on team news obviously.

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Re: UEFA Champions League ( 28-29 April ) Watching parts of last nights game.. I suppose the fact that Barca weren't able to score means they're not as good as I thought they were.. notanow anyhow further injuries and title race will leave them at even a greater disadvantage going to the 2nd leg.. Still Chelsea can pull off a tactical checkmate but it could be a 0:0 again..

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