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Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book

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bowles10

bowles10

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Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book

couldnt get any prices 0.4pts win on both at SP and 0.2pts win double, total 1pt staked
Debating Society 2nd, no match for the odds on fav -1pt on the day Tomorrow 2.40 Yarmouth Hartside (2yo maiden) 7th on debut but hampered when fading, Debating society was 4th in that race so possibly has a chance if improvement is shown, however the race has some reasonable types in it. 5.00 Pontefract Academy (3yo maiden) proved to be expensive on its final 2yo start going off 2/9 fav and coming in 5th place on soft ground. The extra trip will suit on breeding and pehaps may run better on the faster surface. 6.40 Kempton Moonscape (3yo maiden) should be Stoutes best bet of the day really based on its 1 appearance last season when 2nd. Was unlucky to get beat that day and can lose that maiden tag, Trouble is, can Stoute have 3 winners, i think he may have 2 of these 3. I like Academy and Moonscape to be honest and will go for a win double 0.5pts win double.
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Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book 2.45 Ayr Keith Dalgleish boasts a fair record here since he has taken up his trainers licence. His horse ACT YOUR SHOE SIZE has run well on a softer surface before and will apreciate the cut in the ground and was highly tried last time out. Looks to have a great chance of a place at least. 8/1 >Hills 3.20 Ayr MAYOMAN at 16/1 appeals, i really have idea about the draw here and out of stall 22, i am taking a chance that this may come down the far to middle side. Declan Carrols again has a very good recent record and off a mark of 76, its only 1lb higher than best win to date. 16/1 >Hills 3.55 Ayr ANOTHER CITIZEN is another high drawn horse and is only 3yo taking on older horses here but could be a reasonable sprinter with Tim Easterby not one to pitch his young horses in where they cant perform. Has been here twice and won both times, could it be a hat trick of Ayr wins! 12/1 >Hills 5.05 Ayr PUY D'ANAC won last time out and has won off higher marks before. Interestingly as highlighted by the RP today, has won 3 times back to back ! 11/2 >Hills I am having the following bets today 0.02pts EW Lucky 15 = 0.6pts 0.25pts win Mayoman 0.15pts win Another citizen 1pt staked

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bowles10

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Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book -0.54pts yesterday A busy card today I've been concentrating mainly on trainer form in the last month or so and Hannon stands out at Newbury again today. He has 2 2yo's out today in Varnish (1.25) and Golden Jubilee (4.15). I thought that the latter would have been owned by the queen with the GJ next year however this is a USA bred horse. Hughes is on both on them and prices look decent at 10/1 on both available. >bookies taking a chance there i think. In the 2.30 race, He has REDACT which impressed on 1st 2 runs and then a good fourth in the Super Sprint at Newbury. Didnt act well at Ripon LTO so ignore that run. In the 3.05 Hannon could be pipped on Moriarty by his stable jockey Hughes riding the favourite LABARINTO who finally got into the winners enclosure last time out and can win this valuable handicap. Hannon is well represented in the last 2 races and Hughes again looks the man with DEMOCRATES in the 4.50 who made all LTO and Hannon also has ORTAC ROCK who sprang a surprise at 66/1 2 weeks ago. I can see both being in the top 3 today. Onto other horses and GREEN DESTINY can follow up its recent York win with another LH track success. I highlighted the fact last time that the horse has an excellent record on LH tracks and a poor record on RH tracks. Up at Ayr, i have my trend bets in the Gold cup Macs Power and High Standing however HAWKEYETHENOO for Jim Goldie would have been readied for this race and Bartley rides the horse well. This one may follow the same route as Redford last year and go onto the 7f race at Ascot next week. At Newmarket, BLUES JAZZ has won 6 of last 8 races from a mark of 47 to a mark of 80 now. Well placed by his scottish trainer, i have a feeling he has found another race for this stable star. At around 6/1 i will keep this in my multiple bet Bets Trends Macs Power 14/1 >B365 0.5pts win High Standing 22/1 >B365 0.5pts win Multiple Labarinto 5/1 Golden Jubilee 9/1 Redact 8/1 Green Destiny 5/2 Blues Jazz 6/1 Hawkeyetenoo 16/1 0.01pts EW LUCKY 63 = 1.26pts EW treble Green Destiny 5/2 Labarinto 5/1 Redact 8/1 0.1pts EW treble

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Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book 3.20 Ayr Gold Cup Pointers Dont ignore Dandy Nicholls having won 6 of the last 10 races including one year when they didnt enter a single horse. Southern based trainers had a poor record until Clive Cox won in 2009 with Jimmy Styles, since 1999 around 90 horses have tried & produced 2 winners Presto Shinko in 2005 and last year. 7 of the last 12 favourites have been from southern trainers however the long trip north is obviously not favourable. 4yo's have a great record with 10 wins in the last 19 years, that cannot be ignored & as there are not many 3yo's normally entered up at this stage of the season, it pays to go with the 4yo's. 7yo+ have a very poor record with just 1 win in 32 years! Horses carrying higher than 9st 3lb have only 1 won once in last 13 years. Draw The silver cup is normally the best way of tackling the draw bias, notably stalls from 1-11 & 20+ are the ones to consider, middle draws had a poor record until last 2 years when the winner came form 15 & 17. Last years silver cup top 6 were 7-8-25-6-20-9 & The Gold cup was 17-24-8-11-25-13 with the winner held up behind the pace. . Yesterdays Bronze cup the 1st home were 3-15-9-19-27-25. So even looking at those 18 placings, you have 7 drawn 1-9, 6 above 20, 5 in the middle. Previous form Interestingly before 2008 the last 8 winners had bypassed the Royal meeting & the Stewards cup is now the best form line with 7 of the last 13 gold cup winners beaten in that race. Redford last year sidestepped Goodwood but did run at ascot. He then went on to win over 7f. If its form you are looking at 9 of the last 16 finished 4th or higher on latest start. A recent run within 28 days is an excellent pointer as 11 of last 13 have that stat. Favourite backers, dont get out of bed! 1 winner in last 33 years is enough to miss the race & go shopping with the missus! Reducing the field Therefore looking at the best stats, these are the groupings: Ran within 28 days remove Our jonathan, hawkeyethenoo, Tajneed, Pepper lane, LIght from mars, Darajaat, Evens and odds, KAldoun kingdom, 7yo's + ignore Regal Parade, Ancient cross Nicholls entries both scratched already Horses higher than 9st 3lb remove Eton Rifles, Patoral player, Group Therapy, Majestic myles, waffle Thats 16 horses scratched leaving: High Standing (6) placed LTO *ran in stewards) Macs Power (8) placed LTO *ran in stewards Croisultan (7) placed LTO irish Anne of kiev (25) unplaced LTO Diungannon (18) unplaced LTO Son of the cat (9) unplaced lTO *won stewards B race Colonel Mak (15) won LTO *ran in stewards Breathless kiss (26) unplaced LTO Castles in the air (1) unplaced LTO (4th) Below zero (23) unplaced LTO Brave prospector (3) unplaced LTO *ran in stewards Conclusion In conclusion, many to consider however using the key stats, i like Macs Power whom is due one of these races to be honest and also High Standing who has known ability however both are from Newmarket yards which is a worry based on the record of southern trainers. Bets Macs Power High Standing Last years analysis which i posted Analysis - AYR GOLD CUP 2010 The 1st line of the above post sums up how i should have found the winner in reality. Lets look at the profile of the winner REDFORD : Trained by D Nicholls Ridden by Frankie Dettori - won the race last year also Weight 9st 2lb - trend continues only 1 winner in 13 years now ! Draw 17 was a surprise winner as i highlighted middle draws dont win this however the horse was held up on the rail and came though to win, the other 5 home were drawn 24-8-11-25-13. Redford was 3rd LTO and was a recent runner (albeit slightly more than the 22 day trend i highlighted) Ran in the wokingham but not the stewards cup. Has always looked a 7f horse to me also. 3 key trends with Nicholls, weight and LTO stat shows this one was only dismissed on the basis of the draw which i should look at in future as one of the last stages of review. Happy i got the 3rd and 4th home at big prices though.

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bowles10

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Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book 3.61pts staked yesterday on a busy saturday Green Destiny won and returned 3.25pts for the 1pt stake The multiple returned 0.16pts Total stake 3.61pts Total return 3.41pts a small loss on the day Starting to get back into the flat now and with an exciting month ahead, will be trying my best to keep in profit if i can

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bowles10

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Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book 3.50 Newmarket Cambridgeshire The stats Top 4 finish LTO - 10 of last 12 winners & all but 3 of the last 30 winners!! 3 & 4yo's have won 23 of the last 30 races ignore horses aged 7 or over a 5yo finally won last year after 30 years! Lightly raced horses (9 of last 14 winners had ran less than 13 times) Weight - carry no more than 9st 5lbs Hold up horses are favoured 1st 6 in the betting - 9 of last 13 winners 12 of the last 17 winners have been aged 3 or 4 Last 17 runnings, horses drawn 11+ have won 16 of 17 Reducing the field I am not convinced by this race at all and with 35 runners very hard to call. The draw itself can take out 10 runners straight away drawn 26-35 (used to be 1-10). Horses that weigh more than 9st 5lb take out another 8. Thats 18 gone now, leaving us 14. Take out 7yo's+ removes another 3 horses - Riggins, Shavansky, Pires Top 4 finish LTO , leaving us just 7 to take a look at: Questioning 3yo, draw 13, 6 runs (ok on ground, improver?) Roayh 3yo, draw 16, 8 runs (trip completely unknown factor) Dare to dance 3yo, draw 21, Non Runner Maali 3yo, draw 20, 5 runs (very lightly raced) Maraheb 3yo, drawn 8 Non runner Maqaarat draw 2, 5 runs, (could be anything, stable in form) Albaqaa draw 3, 33 runs (ground ok, should be thereabouts) Stevie Thunder draw 5, 27 runs (gets trip, may prefer cut) First post 4yo, draw 9, 23 runs (never won in this grade) Conclusion so taking the ground into account and the lighter raced horses, i wil side with: Going to stick my neck out and just go with Questioning for Gosden and Buick to cap a great season for both. The price at >B365 is also stand out at 12/1 as i expect it will be under 10/1 SP Maraqaat could be the other one to consider now i have changed the draw to correct numbers. Stable in form and will be a dream start for Charlie >Hills. Bet QUESTIONING 12/1 0.5pts win >B365 MARAAQAT 25/1 0.25pts EW >B365

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Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book Negotiation 8.40 Kempton Has to be considered in this claiming company, i am pretty sure i noticed it was a NR earlier in the week at another meeting. Was in class 4 races earlier this season and last won in August last year. Never raced over this trip before but has raced here before running into a place a few times 0.25pts win @ 33/1 Bet365

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Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book september ended up with just a small loss, will update all figures in next few days Onto October and some great meetings ahead on the flat and towards end of the month, the first sign of the jumps game moving into the winter season Today, just looked at one race for the trends thread, so pick up the whole review there but this is the final analysis 3.50 Ascot I am drawn towards the 3 & 4yo's here and taking the trends into full account, the only survivor would be Pastoral Player and the horse has always ran well here, never won over 7f but has always looked as though the trip would be within its reach. CAsual glimpse is more suited to undulating tracks like Goodwood and epsom and although hannon has a superb record here, this one seems to have reached its mark this season and may struggle to win off this high Joe packet may be produced late and ran well at Newbury LTO however hasnt ran enough over this trip for me to consider it. Lets stick with PAstoral Player today 9/1 >Bet365 0.5pts win

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Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book Great pick fella :notworthy

september ended up with just a small loss' date= will update all figures in next few days Onto October and some great meetings ahead on the flat and towards end of the month, the first sign of the jumps game moving into the winter season Today, just looked at one race for the trends thread, so pick up the whole review there but this is the final analysis 3.50 Ascot I am drawn towards the 3 & 4yo's here and taking the trends into full account, the only survivor would be Pastoral Player and the horse has always ran well here, never won over 7f but has always looked as though the trip would be within its reach. CAsual glimpse is more suited to undulating tracks like Goodwood and epsom and although hannon has a superb record here, this one seems to have reached its mark this season and may struggle to win off this high Joe packet may be produced late and ran well at Newbury LTO however hasnt ran enough over this trip for me to consider it. Lets stick with PAstoral Player today 9/1 >Bet365 0.5pts win
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Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book

september ended up with just a small loss' date= will update all figures in next few days Onto October and some great meetings ahead on the flat and towards end of the month, the first sign of the jumps game moving into the winter season Today, just looked at one race for the trends thread, so pick up the whole review there but this is the final analysis 3.50 Ascot I am drawn towards the 3 & 4yo's here and taking the trends into full account, the only survivor would be Pastoral Player and the horse has always ran well here, never won over 7f but has always looked as though the trip would be within its reach. CAsual glimpse is more suited to undulating tracks like Goodwood and epsom and although hannon has a superb record here, this one seems to have reached its mark this season and may struggle to win off this high Joe packet may be produced late and ran well at Newbury LTO however hasnt ran enough over this trip for me to consider it. Lets stick with PAstoral Player today 9/1 >Bet365 0.5pts win
:clap:clap Cracking call. Eventually his day has come !
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Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book 12.45 Longchamp Prix L'Abbaye Run over 4f 213yds, just short of 5f. Up to total gallery's win for the 3yo's in 2009, you had to go back to 1997 since a 3yo won this race & back to 1978 since a 2yo was successful. British trainers have done well in recent years with 9 of the last 11 runnings going to English or Irish trainers. up to 2009, since 2001, only 5 & 6yos have won the race with 6 & 2 wins between them. LAst year the winner was a 4yo, so not sure about age now as perhaps it is just how good the crop is. Another trend is that most winners have won previously that season.

more actual stats

8 of last 11 in first 3 LTO 9 of last 11 had run in last 28 days 11 of last 11 had won over 6f 11 of last 11 had won a sprint worth 24K+ got to start with those last 3 100% stats which removs nos 1, 2, 4, 6, 7, 8, 10, 11, 12, 13, 15. taking those that have finished in last 3 and ran within 28 days we are left with: Prohibit 6yo GB trained Masamah 5yo GB Looking at these 3 in turn, Prohibit won LTO over C/D and is now a proven G1 performer. Masamah normally finds 1 too good and has never won past August to date. I think it has to be Prohibit to win but is no price to be honest in a competitive sprint Lets stick it on the French Tote and see what odds they give us, 0.5pts win French Tote odds I have also added CAPTAIN DUNNE to my bet as i know the stable had this race in mind all season and after winning at Epsom in rhe dash, that performance may just have put the horse in with a chance here if performing as well, a very game horse who can run various ways, from the front or off the pace. I expect it will blaze a trail today 0.25pts win French tote odds

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Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book No luck last Sunday -0.75pts Playing up a few trends tomorrow at Newmarket 2.05 Newmarket Graveyard for favs with 2 from 13 Dont be surprised if a longshot wins with 5 winners at 16/1+ in last 13 years. Three 3yo's have returned at odds of 20/1 in the last 12 years & all were trained by Barry Hills, Hills also had last years winner Red Jazz 11 of the last 13 had won earlier that season but only 2 won LTO. Horses campaigned the length of the season do well also. This is key. The Barry Hills factor is not here this year and disappointing that Charlie couldnt find a runner in one of his dads favs. Take a chance on RIMTH 0.25pts win 14/1 sj LECHEVALIER CHOISI 0.25pts win 40/1 sj 3.10 Newmarket This race has also seen a fair share of big price winners with 4 winners in last 13 returning at 25/1+. 2008 winner was 20/1! At the other end of the scale, 6 favs have gone in over the 13 years. The race has produced some excellent horses with the likes of New Approach, Teofolio, Rock of Gibraltar, Sir Percy and Frankel all winning this race in the last 9 years. Therefore, horses with staying pedigree to be followed. Bets Parish Hall 0.3pts win 20/1 pp Power 0.7pts win 3/1 >B365 3.40 The Cesarewitch has an amazing stat with high drawn horses with 11 of the last 12 being drawn 17 or higher (2008 - draw 11), so you are taking pot luck on anything lower. Indeed the 7 of the last 9 have been 23 or higher! THIS YEAR THOUGH THIS WILL BE LOW NUMBERS AS THE DRAW HAS CHANGED. 50 of the last 56 placings in the race have gone to horses weighing 9st 1lb or less. higher age groups appear to be favoured with 9 of last 14 being aged 6+. Winning form is not essential with only 1 winner in last 13 having won LTO bets Ermyn Lodge (drawn 2) 0.5pts win 16/1 >B365

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Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book Decided to add some jumps bets also Personally, Nicholls words about Five Dream and available at 7/1 looks a fair bet, the others are too short for me and looking at Twiston Davies' record in October, i am looking at his runners today at nice prices. 2.25 Chepstow Red Riverman 14/1 - needs to jump a hell of a lot better than has doen so far, if he does, has a chance round here. 5.50 Chepstow Swincombe rock 8/1 - won 1st time up last season but that was in the summer and NTD well cpaable of producing one to win 1st time up in a chase. Five Dream 7/1 - comments from Nicholls taken on board and off an interesting mark 1st time up of 128. I expect this will be fav by the off time. 0.25pts (not 2.5pts!) win singles on al 3 horses.

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Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book

As per my post earlier in February i will now be moving to a new staking system using the following points range: 0-2pts 0.5pts will be the min bet with 2pts the max bet.
2.25 Chepstow Red Riverman 14/1 - needs to jump a hell of a lot better than has doen so far, if he does, has a chance round here. 5.50 Chepstow Swincombe rock 8/1 - won 1st time up last season but that was in the summer and NTD well cpaable of producing one to win 1st time up in a chase. Five Dream 7/1 - comments from Nicholls taken on board and off an interesting mark 1st time up of 128. I expect this will be fav by the off time. 2.5pts win singles on al 3 horses.
Rob, 3 bets exceeding max stakes? Bloody hell, you must be confident;)
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Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book Hopefully Frankie isnt too tired after that 4.25 Newmarket Pimpernel 10/3 B365 0.5pts win Backed this last time out and was most impressed, steps up to G2 company today but Al Zarooni leading trainer at this track has only 1 here today and i want to be on it. Met the dip well LTO and i expect Frankie will play same tactics

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Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book a 20/1 winner and 3 seconds so nearly a very good day, but happy with that price in a Group race! Ermyn Lodge was beaten much in the cesarewitch after an inspired Dettori ride pipped him. 3.25pts staked 6.3pts returned

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Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book +6.8pts so far in October Goodwood, looks like Hannon could carry on with his record here this year with a number of posibilities today 4.45 SILVERWARE is preferred over stablemate Compton Blue here especialy with the faster ground and the step up to a mile again. Won twice this season in todays conditions and has Hughes on board who is leading jockey this season at the track also 0.5pts win 13/2 >B365

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