Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book

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Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book -1.2pts from Saturday, Excellent guest ran well again for 2nd place and should pick up a valuable handicap at some point this season Tonight just a single at Windsor for me 8.10 Windsor FLYING PHOENIX 12/1 Bet365 Claimed out of Haggas' yard following its 2nd at Newmarket last time out, will enjoy the fast pace likely to be set in the race by Hurricane Lady who has to defy another 3lb rise in the weights. Martin Dwyer keeps the ride on Flying Phoenix and 1st time blinkers may just be the key also tonight. I can see these 2 fighting it out at the front to the line Bet 0.5pts win 12/1 >B365

[bowles10]

Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book

-1.2pts from Saturday, Excellent guest ran well again for 2nd place and should pick up a valuable handicap at some point this season Tonight just a single at Windsor for me 8.10 Windsor FLYING PHOENIX 12/1 Bet365 Claimed out of Haggas' yard following its 2nd at Newmarket last time out, will enjoy the fast pace likely to be set in the race by Hurricane Lady who has to defy another 3lb rise in the weights. Martin Dwyer keeps the ride on Flying Phoenix and 1st time blinkers may just be the key also tonight. I can see these 2 fighting it out at the front to the line Bet 0.5pts win 12/1 >B365

3rd, i dont think sub Hayley rode it very well as was too far behind to have a chance at this track. She droped it behind which for me was wrong tactic as she could have taken on the front 2 earlier in the race.

[bowles10]

Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book just 1 tonight trying to find some form if i can !!! 9.00 Sandown SZABOS DESTINY appeals as some value in a small field. The horse has won over the distance unlike the rest of the field and runs off only 1lb higher than when recording that success at Nottingham. James Given doesnt come here too often but is 3 from 14 at the track 21% which agsain should be considered as a plus. The rivals all have a bit to prove and this one likes to be out in front and could take them off their toes a bit Bet 0.5pts win 12/1 >Bet365

[bowles10]

Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book

just 1 tonight trying to find some form if i can !!! 9.00 Sandown SZABOS DESTINY appeals as some value in a small field. The horse has won over the distance unlike the rest of the field and runs off only 1lb higher than when recording that success at Nottingham. James Given doesnt come here too often but is 3 from 14 at the track 21% which agsain should be considered as a plus. The rivals all have a bit to prove and this one likes to be out in front and could take them off their toes a bit Bet 0.5pts win 12/1 >Bet365

another FRONT runner HELD UP, FFS, had enough lately nowhere :wall

[bowles10]

Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book It's Saturday and struggled to find a race for the trends so its down to me to try and get back into form with some trusty methods 5.20 Newmarket JUDGE N JURY looks well handicapped these days and runs off 88 here hence the bookies not giving anything away. Last win was 2 years ago off 98 at Ascot but sinc ethen has ran creditably on a number of occasions without winning. Front runner wil have to do it from there again today and see if it can keep its head in front to the line. I only make it a 3 horse race with Fathom five and Sotton Veny being the other 2. Bet 0.5pts win 9/2 Bet365 My other bet is around a Fallon double with GIVE YOUR VERDICT 3.10 Newm & KIRTHILL 4.45 Newm, both ar favourites for top trainers and Fallon normally has winners here. The former is only 3lb higher than ending last season with a win at Sandown. The latter runs in a handicap for the 1st time off a mark of 86 and Cumani is good at bringing horses along from maidens into handicaps so i expect a big run. Bet 0.25pts EW double 6/1 & 3/1 Bet365

[bowles10]

Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book another losing day -1pt Judge n jury 3rd (not sre that horse will ever win a race again) Kirthill 2nd but Give your verdict ran very poorly in the soft ground Have to admit i have no interest at present in the game, i always go through this spell at this stage of the year and really shouldnt bother with trying to turn it around. May be back with a few bets but they will be few and far between for a few weeks i think now

[bowles10]

Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book ok, not had a winner for weeks and really not been interested Having a go today with 2 of the big handicaps at Ascot today (not making it easy am i!!) 1.30 Ascot FIRST CAT ticks all the boxes for me and have a good jockey on board as well in Katy Walsh. The horse is drawn well also on the stands side. The paper tells me the horse is blind in one eye however this is never really a hinderence to horses from what i have seen before. Hannon has a good record here and also the horse has ran well twice here before. 0.5pts win 7/1 B365

[bowles10]

Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book First cat was no good..... onto the big handicap of the day and thats it for me 3.50 Ascot Heritage hcap 7f 11 years of trends 4yo's have won 8 of the last 11 runnings (other 3 were aged 3 & 5 twice) Race often goes to a decent stable and only time outside England was a French win for John Hammond in 2002. Apart from 2009 40/1 winners, the price range in the other 10 races was 7/1 - 18/1 with no favourites winning The draw has been varied with last 2 winners drawn high, otherwise the other 9 winners were drawn 13 or lower so high numbers were not favoured. This would now be low numbers following the Draw changes Those weighing over 9st have won 3 of the last 11, but the favoured weight appears to be between 8st and 9st 4lb which has heralded 9 of the last 11. 2010 - 4 runs, 21 days, 12th at RA (Buck) , 3 LTO 2009 - 3 runs, 15 days, 2nd at RA (brittannia), 0 LTO 2008 - 5 runs, 36 days, 5th at RA (Buck), 5 LTO 2007 - 4 runs, 17 days, 19th at RA (Buck) 1 LTO 2006 - 5 runs, 38 days, 12th at RA (R Hunt), 12 LTO 2005 - 4 runs, 38 days, 1st at RA (R Hunt), 1 LTO 2004 - 4 runs, 16 days, 2nd at Nkt (bunbury) 2 LTO 2003 - 4 runs, 38 days, 1st at RA (R Hunt), 1 LTO 2002 - 2 runs, 35 days, 4th at RA (wokingham), 2 LTO 2001 - 5 runs, 16 days, 4th at RA (R Hunt), 1 LTO Bunbury 2000 - 3 runs, 16 days, 5th at RA (R Hunt), 11 LTO the above shows some key stats for the season for each winner, we can see that between 3-5 runs is key, raced LTO between 15-38 days, raced in a top Royal Ascot handicap with Royal Hunt cup favoured. Immediately, we can start removing those that didnt run at Ascot or the JUly Newmarket meeting, Hawkeyethenoo, Reignier, The Confessor, Mirza, Pravda street, KIngscroft, Joseph Henry These others were also discounted on amount of runs this season: Our Jonathon, Atlantic sport, Brae Hill, Dubai dynamo, Imperial djay, striking spirit, advanced, leviathan, below zero al muheer Of the others, we need to look at how they fared at Ascot: Palace Moon 6yo 9st 6lb, drawn 22, 18th Buckingham Manassas 6yo, 9st 4lb, drawn 4, 1st Buckingham Castles in the air, 6yo, 9st 1lb, drawn 8, 18th Buckingham Imperial Guest, 5yo, 9st 1lb, drawn 21, 13th Wokingham excellent Guest 4yo, 8st 11lb, drawn 3, 2nd Buckingham Noble Citizen, 6yo, 8st 7lb, drawn 19, 16th Buckingham Bronze prince 4yo, 8st 6lb, drawn 24, 15th Hunt cup I am keen to retain the 4/5yo's only out of this shortlist which leaves Imperial Guest 16/1 >B365 0.25pts win Excellent Guest 10/1 >B365 0.5pts win Bronze prince 22/1 >B365 0.25pts win Excellent guest looks to have the worst of the draws based on the stats i have with only 2 winners coming from that side of the field (far side). At the prices i will leave all 3 in the race for a bit of cover on both sides of the track Excellent Guest is a horse i have followed all season so i will staked with that as my main bet and half my min bet on the other 2 to win 1pt staked

[bowles10]

Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book 3.40 York Apologies for not posting up the full trends but have to go out quickly... Selection is RACY 12/1 >B365 0.5pts win 7 years of trends to go on, and weight, age, draw and price all narrowed down to 3 selections Fastha, Hoof it and Racy. Just going with RAcy to win

[bowles10]

Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book 1.5pts staked on the day 22/1 winner Bronze Prince make my month total looking a great deal healthier and i knew it would be a big one that got me back in the groove 1.5pts staked 5.75pts returned

[bowles10]

Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book been a sparse month for bets and saturdays winner means i am only -3.23pts down on the month now Havent had time to go through the Goodwood card in much detail for tomorrow but I do follow Ryan Moore at the track. I have left out the short one Fiorente and covered the other 6 in win doubles and an ew accy just in case 0.8pts staked with 0.05pt win doubles & 0.025pt EW accy

[bowles10]

Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book no return today backing Ryan Moore blind. He managed 2 seconds and 2 thirds but no cigar Interesting last race tomorrow 5.30 Goodwood MUSHARAKAAT has some decent form when you consider its runs this season have been a group 2 and 2 listed races. It should be top weight here but gets the 3yo allowance from the older horses as does the other 3yo's. ignore the Ribblesdale where it was outclassed, its other races have shown the horse has some ability, however i would like to see it taken to the front and see what happens as i dont think a hold up ride will help it over this shorter distance. 0.5pts win @ 16/1 B365 i am also having a punt at GAlway as well in the plate.... 5.25 Galway Dermot Weld has made no secret of targeting the big races at the festival and after 3 winners on the flat today, he saddles up MAJESTIC CONCORDE for the big jumps race on tomorrows card, 3rd in the race last year carrying 10st 12lb, he has to carry 11st 4lb tomorrow however at 8yo should still be improving. Blotted its copybook unseating at Aintree in the National. Would possibly prefer some cut in the ground but the trainer will have the horse spot on for this race 0.5pts win @ 8/1 B365

[bowles10]

Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book 8.35 Sandown Hoping to get a small profit on the day by backing prescotts MEMORY LANE in the last race here. Prescott has a grat strike rate here 36% win and 60% place which is well above anyone else. He has won the race the last 2years and this is the typical route for an improver to ruin up a quick sequence as usual. Thought it would be favourite but 3/1 available 0.5pts win 3/1 B365

[bowles10]

Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book -1.5pts today Memory Lane drifted to 5/1 and managed 3rd afterr leading to the 2f mark, still managed to stay on for 3rd 4.50 GAlway Hurdle After following Weld today, not going to miss his entry in this race albeit i can see any of about 10 winning this race!! HIDDEN UNIVERSE is the one and i would also be interested in Captain Cee Bee with that hurdle mark although all the critics feel that The Real Article will reverse the form of last weeks race. 0.5pts win @ 9/1 B365

[bowles10]

Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book -0.5pts from last bet Big sprint today from my trends.... 3.45 Stewards Cup Goodwood 4or 5yo - 11 out of 14 8st 2lb - 9st 1lb - 11 out of 14 SP 14/1 or lower - 11 out of 14 favs 3 out of 14 winner this season 10 out of 14 placed or better this season 13 out of 14 3 runs or more this season - 14 out of 14 Its quite significant here the last 2 stats, 3 or more runs & placed at least this season preferably with a win also, 4-5yo's are also favoured showing those sprinters still in thier early years have an advantage. A 40/1 in 2008 messed up the SP stat a little however you can go back further & see that 6 times in 25 runs of the race has a horses 20/1+ has won. Also last year was a bit of a trends buster with Evens and odds winning Age is really key as in the same 25 years, 4&5yo's have won 20 of these and apart from last year had won the last 9 runnings Hoof it (18) 10st 6/1 Tiddliwinks (26) 9st 9lb 20/1 Pastoral Player (24) 9st 6lb 14/1 Macs Power (1) 9st 3lb 8/1 Nasri (27) 9st 25/1 Lui Rei (22) 9st 33/1 Edinburgh Knight (10) 8st 10lb 10/1 Fitz Flyer (16) 8st 12lb 40/1 Mon Cadeux (3) 8st 12lb 28/1 Kanaf (20) 8st 12lb 25/1 Colonel Mak (21) 8st 11lb 14/1 Global City (4) 8st 11lb 40/1 This is my shortlist of 12 after applying the 3 key trends. I have also put the prices alongside and the draw 8 of the last 11 ran in the wokingham at Royal Ascot including the last 5 winners. Of those in the wokingham from the shortlist: Pastoral player (3rd), Hoof it (7th), MAcs power (8th), Lui Rei (9th), Colonel Mak (10th), Nasri (14th), I am trying to keep to those weighted down the bottom of the handicap with Lui Rei, Colonel Mak and Nasri all falling into the best weight bracket Colonel Mak is the only one that meets the price bracket, NAsri possibly better over 7f and Lui rei hasnt won on these shores yet Ive been backing Macs Power all season and fanshawe may have another decent sprint to add to his collection tomorrow but 8/1 looks plenty short enough in this big field Bet Colonel Mak 14/1 0.5pts win B365

[bowles10]

Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book 2.05 Goodwood The Stewards Sprint cup is the B race for the main event later in the day. I have looked at a number of these and looking for a bit of value. SECRET WITNESS trained by Ron Harris appeals at 28/1 B365. Recent form includes a 3rd at Haydock to Piazza San Pietro and also going back to a race in May at Newbury the horse was 3rd behind Novellen Lad, beaten 1.75L with Macs Power in 2nd. MAc Power is a leading fancy for the Stewards later today and has ran really well since. out of 35 career runs, the horse has been in the 1st 3 19 times which is over 50% place strike rate. Has never won in this grade but capable of a place and there is some pace on the lower draw therefore should get a run today. Secret witness 28/1 0.25pts EW B365

[bowles10]

Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book 1pt loss from yesterday, no fairytale ending to the month!!!

[bowles10]

Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book July total was -7.03, i havent had time yet to post the list of bets up but the first bet for August is today Kempton 3.00 Shuhra has blinkers on today and i was expecting a much shorter price so the value could be this one. Haggas has a decent record here also. The extra distance hopefully will suit also 9/4 b365 Kempton 4.00 Swift Breeze could notch the double for Haggas. Hasnt been seen since winning a doncaster maiden last year but off a mark of 71 and racing vs older horses, is well worth a shout 7/2 b365 0.5pts win double

[bowles10]

Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book starting where i left off, very poor, dont really like the AW and that is possibly my last bet on the stuff to be honest Onto Windsor tonight, only the last race interests me 8.10 5f Not sure about the draw here and i have one low and one high. SCARLET ROCKS and BEST BE CAREFUL are both CD winners here and before the end of the season will notch up another course victory i am certain, both are well weighted to win tonight and i am surprised both can be backed at 12/1 with Bet365. Scarlet rocks will blaze a trail on the rail and often finds one too good, that one could be bst be careful who has run well here on both occasions at the track. 0.3pts win both at 12/1 Bet365 0.6pts staked

[bowles10]

Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book

starting where i left off, very poor, dont really like the AW and that is possibly my last bet on the stuff to be honest Onto Windsor tonight, only the last race interests me 8.10 5f Not sure about the draw here and i have one low and one high. SCARLET ROCKS and BEST BE CAREFUL are both CD winners here and before the end of the season will notch up another course victory i am certain, both are well weighted to win tonight and i am surprised both can be backed at 12/1 with Bet365. Scarlet rocks will blaze a trail on the rail and often finds one too good, that one could be bst be careful who has run well here on both occasions at the track. 0.3pts win both at 12/1 Bet365 0.6pts staked

aarrgh, knocked on the door again with 16/1 2nd Best be careful beaten 3/4 L in the end. 1.1pts lost on the day

[bowles10]

Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book come up with some decent prices about horses who have won here and more than capable of going in again 2.00 York Johannes 25/1 - won off 95 here last year, 3lb lower today, frustrating horse but has a win in it still at this level Medici time 25/1 - not won off this high but a CD win here is well worth a shout 0.1pt EW on both

[bowles10]

Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book

come up with some decent prices about horses who have won here and more than capable of going in again 2.00 York Johannes 25/1 - won off 95 here last year, 3lb lower today, frustrating horse but has a win in it still at this level Medici time 25/1 NR - not won off this high but a CD win here is well worth a shout 0.1pt EW on both

substituted the non runner for the Fallon/Nicholls partnership on Silaah at 25/1, draw is high which has produced the last 2 winners of this race also,trainer back to better form now also

[bowles10]

Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book nothing from last bet -1.5pts loss this month so far Friday 3.40 York INXILE has been campaigned in Ireland since returning from Meyden in the spring, having won 4 times this season now, this sprinter has improved greatly during the season and Nicholls has been plundering the sprint prizes over the water where the opposition isn't of the quality we often see here. Saying that it demolished Sole Power LTO getting a 2lb allowance. I would expect it would beat Sole Power again and it tactics to lead from the front may prove dividends here and may prove hard to pass. The softer conditions wont be an issue either and 20/1 looks a decent price Bet365 are paying 1st 4 home also 0.25pts EW 20/1 >B365

[bowles10]

Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book 3.05 York Decided to put GREEN DESTINY in my bet also for tomorrow, especially with its form on LH tracks which reads 1-1-1 whereas its 2 failures this season have been on RH tracks Ascot and Goodwood. Won here in a very competitive handicap and now time to prove it can win in group class. Fallon replaces the claimer on board and sure to run a big race. 0.5pts win 5/1 Bet365

[bowles10]

Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book 7.00 Salisbury Hannon has amassed 15 winners at the track this season and has the front 2 in the market here I do fancy Coupe de ville of the 2 and now the Noseda horse is out, i think 13/8 is a cracking price Sure to appreciate the mile and can hold off its stablemate. 0.5pts win 13/8 Coup de ville 0.1pt Exacta Coup de ville and Lord of the shadows

[bowles10]

Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book

3.05 York Decided to put GREEN DESTINY in my bet also for tomorrow, especially with its form on LH tracks which reads 1-1-1 whereas its 2 failures this season have been on RH tracks Ascot and Goodwood. Won here in a very competitive handicap and now time to prove it can win in group class. Fallon replaces the claimer on board and sure to run a big race. 0.5pts win 5/1 Bet365

1st at 11/4:clap

7.00 Salisbury Hannon has amassed 15 winners at the track this season and has the front 2 in the market here I do fancy Coupe de ville of the 2 and now the Noseda horse is out, i think 13/8 is a cracking price Sure to appreciate the mile and can hold off its stablemate. 0.5pts win 13/8 Coup de ville 0.1pt Exacta Coup de ville and Lord of the shadows

double whammy here, both bets landed and 15/8 BOG for the winner happy days :clap about time !!

[bowles10]

Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book 1.9pts staked yesterday 4.83pts returned Today, firstly the trends bet for the day Ebor trends - 3.40 York Age 4-6 8 from last 10 (other 2 were 3yo which came 9&10 years ago) LTO 12 of last 13 had won that season (the other was 2nd, so 13/13 had won or placed) Weight stat is thsat under 8st 12lb is more favourable with 7 from last 10 Luca Cumani normally targets the race & has 3 wins since 1999 and 5 of his 7 runners in last 10 years have been in first 5 home Draw is suprisingly significant with 9 of last 10 drawn in the highest 7 stalls Only 2 horses aged 6 or over have won in last 30 years Nothing rated over 103 has won in last 10 years Last 10 winners had run in last 40 days Taking all of the above into account, only SIRVINO meets all the trends although the horse is 6yo. TACTICIAN would get in with the jockeys claim also so we wil count that one although only 1 apprentice has won the race in last 10 years. If we discount the draw stat although significant, we would also include BLISSFUL MOMENT Bets SIRVINO 50/1 EW >B365 1st 5 - 0.15pts EW TACTICIAN 14/1 EW >B365 1st 5 - 0.4pts win BLISSFUL MOMENT 10/1 Win >B365 1st 5 - 0.3pts win Staked as above on the chances i feel the horses have, 1pt staked in total on the race. more to come....

[bowles10]

Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book 2.15 Sandown ARCH FIRE, ive been following this one a bit and glad to see Stoute lining it up again at Sandown where the horse has ran well previously. Thought this could run up a few wins this season and was unlucky not to win at Goodwood. Decent price also today and Stoute has laods of winners here also. The claim for the jockey is also another benefit 0.5pts win 13/2 >Bet365

[bowles10]

Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book 3.55 Sandown Just read the sportinglife.com write up and they dont even mention the draw. Already 4 non runners possibly for the reason that the track has favoured low numbers all season. Even Grp 1 winner Margot Did ran poorly there LTO when trying to win from a high draw Drawn in 1 is La Fortunata who is a fast starter and may be able to get a decent advantage using the rail. Damika in stall 2 should be helped by the fast pace set and won this time last year off 5lb lower rating. In stall 3 Drfit and dream has a god record here of 2-2-1-4 from 4 runs, so should be therabouts. Living it large in stall 5 is another with a decent chance as can also make the running. 2 bets Living it large La Fortunata Damika 7/1 - 0.3pts win >B365 Exactas on the above 3 - combination total stake 0.3pts

[bowles10]

Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book too many 2nds last week, -2.1pts on Saturday 1st time ive even looked today after a busy week 2.55 Newmarket Al Zarooni just keeps having winners here, and the prices are always decent. he saddles 3 here in this decent maiden and i have split the stake up to cover the 3 Colonsay 0.1pt win 16/1 B365 Trois Vallees 0.2pts win 14/1 B365 Welcome Gift 0.2pts win 25/1 B365 The draw may play a small part so gone with the low numbers and a small amount on the one drawn high.