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Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book


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Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book Thanks Bill Ascot Friday The 3.20 race is the one i am looking at with FREDO having a major chance at a decent price. Positives for the horse are that it has won off this mark at Towcester which we know takes some getting. Ascot is different being a flat track however horses often finish very tired here so for me its a plus that the horse can get home. 2 of its wins have come ay Haydock another flat track and a bit like Ascot. Started well last season and certainly capable of winning this race off this mark. 13 of its 26 runs have resulted in a 50% strike rate for win or place. Skelton is an able jockey also so i am happy with that booking 0.5pts ew 16/1 Bet365

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Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book short of time but as well as the fredo bet I have the following EW doubles - 0.05pts ew doubles EW trebles - 0.01pts ew trebles EW accy - 0.01pts ew accy Cinders and ashes/Broadbackbob Restezen D'Armour/Balacicco Fredo Featherbed lane all reasoning in the jumps thread 1.62pts staked on this multiple

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Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book Mixed day yesterday with Fredo getting turned over, came 5th i think I had 2 winners in my multiple that helped I was at Ascot and had the following bets also 0.5pts win Blues & Two's fell 1pt win Cinders & ashes 2nd so in total an outlay of: 4.12pts staked 1.14pts returned

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Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book Onto today, firstly all the reasoning then the bets at the bottom From my trends thread 2.45 Ascot 10/17 Favs 16/17 SP 7/2 or under 2/17 4yo winner - Last 2 years 10/17 6-7yo winner 1 winner Nicholls (last year) or King trained 15/17 1 run or debut in season 9/17 1st time out 5 of the other 8 had won on previous start 2/16 had 2 runs (with figures of 1-1 & 1-1) obvious choice is to go with the SP at 7/2 or under, but lets also look at the other stats oscar whiskey meets all the trends and Henderson had 3 from 3 at the track ysterday KIng of the night has had 2 runs this season but that keeps with the trends as the horse has won both, nicholls broke his duck in this last year overturn meets the trends also and is priced around 11/4. Katchit and Lough derg look too old now for this race. My take on the race is that Oscar whiskey is very decent horse as is Overturn and it is difficult to split the 2. Overturn gets 8lb off OW here and they were 7th & 3rd in the Champion Hurdle over the shorter distance at Cheletenham. I will still cover both even though OW wont make me a profit but does cover the stake. Selections Oscar Whiskey 11/10 Overturn 3/1 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2.10 Ascot Master minded faces better rivals than he did in this last year when once Albertas run crashed out, the race was handed to MM on a plate. The race distance of 2m 3f catches a few out as often horses trained for 2m races take this on and just find it too far whereas those that stay further the distance isnt enough. Not sure what MM will be doing this year as its still in the KG and may well be aimed for the 3m this year rather than staying at the 2m distance. This lead me to the horse i think is fair value to take on the favourite here in KALAHARI KING If we look at its form, only 24 runs for a 10yo, so very lightly raced, over 20f or further, it has had 6 runs, P-F-1-1-3-2 The PU was at Aintree only 3 weeks after its Cheltenham run when 2nd 1L to Albertas Run in a thrilling Ryan Air chase at the festival. The Fall came at Aintree also in Apr 2010 when it fell early. The 2 wins were both over hurdles. I am really hoping that Murphy has the horse ready for this race as oftenhis horses need a run or 2. KK has had the prep run and gets in here getting 10lb from MM and 6lb from the younger horses in the race. 8/1 with >Bet365 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 2.30 Haydock Sa Suffit is very interesting here off a hurdles mark of 135. The horse has a mark of 152 over chases and that is better than any of its rivals today. Lightly raced horse that has had its problems but has a decent chance today of getting in the money 16/1 >Bet365 looks a big price to me ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 3.05 Haydock Firstly, it interested me as to how the Gold cup winners fared on thier reappearance, the result over the last 4 years is 2-1-1-1. This bodes well for Long Run who showed the older generation in March how to do it. His amateur jockey gets on so well with the horse and any negatives about the pairing were surely overcome last season. His rivals today include 3 potential rivals come MArch in Time for Rupert, Weird Al and Diamond harry which makes this race a great spectacle to watch as they have all turned up to take on the reigning champ. They all have a chance of winning this and LR willhave to be ready today as these 3 will be. Throw in Kauto and we have a great race. I am sticking with Long Run 5/4 >Bet365 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Bets (all with B365) Oscar Whisky 11/10/Long Run 5/4 2pt win double Overturn 0.5pts win (saver) Kalahari King 0.5pts win 8/1 Sa Suffit 0.5pts win 16/1 3.5pts staked

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Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book a double for me today at Exeter 2.30 Renard, on a hat trick and doesnt face much opposition today, can deal with the 8lb rise to land its 3rd win of the season 3.00 Knights Pass, was well fancied for the cheltenham bumper last year and will be aimed at one of the decent novice events at the festival in march 0.5pts win double 11/4 and 8/11 are the prices with B365

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Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book

a double for me today at Exeter 2.30 Renard, on a hat trick and doesnt face much opposition today, can deal with the 8lb rise to land its 3rd win of the season 3.00 Knights Pass, was well fancied for the cheltenham bumper last year and will be aimed at one of the decent novice events at the festival in march 0.5pts win double 11/4 and 8/11 are the prices with B365
:clap:clap Nice Double Bowlesy:ok
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Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book

a double for me today at Exeter 2.30 Renard, on a hat trick and doesnt face much opposition today, can deal with the 8lb rise to land its 3rd win of the season 3.00 Knights Pass, was well fancied for the cheltenham bumper last year and will be aimed at one of the decent novice events at the festival in march 0.5pts win double 11/4 and 8/11 are the prices with B365
happy with that 3/1 and 5/4 SP's:nana Knights Pass did everything it needed to as well, worth keeping an eye on that one for Cheltenham will update weekend totals later today
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Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book Last bet lost (5th) TODAY 1.00 Sedgefield Bound for glory looks like it should win this but i am going with an outsider to pick up a place hopefully at decent odds, DICE a previous winner on the flat has had some experience now of hurdles and a recent flat run last month will ensure the horse is fit and ready. Trainer Grant does well here and shouldnt be discounted o what is his only runner of the day 0.25pts 25/1 Sporting bet EW 2.30 Sedgefield ROYAL MILE should now be ready to win after 2 runs this season for Ferdy Murphy who is well known for horses coming on for runs and it was beaten too much last time out when still in contention at the last fence. 0.5pts 7/2 Skybet

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Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book Dice was 5th after a reasonable run and Royal Mile looked the winner before the last only to not able to go past the winner and not beaten much Thursday at Newbury, 3 bets interest me based on my knowledge of this flt track, it takes some getting as i firmly believe this is the most testing straight in the country with 4 fences to jump 1.00 Newbury The Cockney Mackem - was unlucky to lose lTO when sh hd defeat to Edgardo sol who has come out and won again since 1.35 Newbury Sentmental Journey - been running well all season and up another 2lb but should be able to dominate this field under the hands of McCoy 2.45 Newbury That'll do boy - won at Wincanton LTO and can improve. I am always interested in Nicholls 5yo's off low weights as they tends to have a few wins in them 0.1pt Win Patent

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Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book

Thursday at Newbury, 3 bets interest me based on my knowledge of this flt track, it takes some getting as i firmly believe this is the most testing straight in the country with 4 fences to jump 1.00 Newbury The Cockney Mackem - was unlucky to lose lTO when sh hd defeat to Edgardo sol who has come out and won again since 1.35 Newbury Sentmental Journey - been running well all season and up another 2lb but should be able to dominate this field under the hands of McCoy 2.45 Newbury That'll do boy - won at Wincanton LTO and can improve. I am always interested in Nicholls 5yo's off low weights as they tends to have a few wins in them 0.1pt Win Patent
That'll do boy won at 11/2, the other 2 no good 0.7pts staked 0.65pts returned
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Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book 3.50 Newbury Cousin Khee 20/1 >Bet365 0.25pts EW A hot race according to the experts however i dont want 11/10 about the favourite and will side with Hughie Morrisons horse Cousin Khee who ran a respectable 8th in the Champion Bumper at Cheltenham. 1st time over hurdles after 3 bumper efforts and possibly has a squeak here and an inflated price also as i was expecting around 10/1

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Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book no good yesterday -0.5pts Hennessy - Saturday 3.10 Newbury Key trends Age 6 to 9 yo - 14/14 Age 6 to 8 yo - 12/14 Weight 11st 4lb or under- 13/17 SP 10/1 & under - 14/17 Fav 4/13 Debut for season 7/14 1-2 runs in season - 8/14 Won LTO that season 5/13 2nd season chaser 10/14 Between 6 - 18 career runs 13/14 The age stat stands out & the 6-18 career runs. SP is normally lower than 10/1 so one of the principals normally wins it. The weight stat has taken a pounding in last 6 years with the top weight winning 3 times off 11st 12lb. The quality of those 2 animals speaks for itself though. 2nd season chasers also do well. look at 6-18 career runs and 6-9yo only, this leaves the following: Joncol - 11st 6lb, 1st LTO, likes soft, never won beyond 3m Aiteen Thirtythree - 10st 10lb, 2nd LTO, won here twice in small fields and won over 25f Great endeavour - 10st 9lb, 1st LTO, never won on a flat track or beyond 22f Beshabar - 10st 8lb, debut, 5 out of 6 career wins on a flat track, won over further Wayward Prince - 10st 8lb, debut, has won over 25f, runs well fresh The Giant Bolster - 10st 4lb, Unseated LTO, not won on a flat track or over 23f+ Wymott - 1ost 2lb, debut, won over 25f, all wins in small fields Tullamore Dew - 9st 12lb, Fell LTO, not won over 21f+ Qhilmar - 9st 9lb, 2nd lTO, won over 26f on flat track LOoking through some other trends around and i find that 6-7yo's have 8 wins and 17 places from the last races so want to concentrate on that age group. 5 of the last 6 winners were rated 150 or more 9 of the last 10 had won over 25f or more 10 of the last 10 had won a class 2 chase or higher Leaving 2 bets for me and happy to post them up tonight Aiteen Thirtythree 6/1 >B365 (already advised 0.5pts win) Wayward Prince 9/1 >B365 (already advised 0.5pts win) Backed both again today, i missed the drfit on 1833 but have just backed it at a bigger price AiteenThurtythree 15/2 B365 0.25pts win Wayward Prince 7/1 B365 0.25pts win

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Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book Other bets today 2.05 Newbury Empire Levant has been brought again quickly after its win last week and with no penalty as that race was a conditional jockeys event, its rider Harry Derham is now a conditional rather than an amateur and will figure on a number of nicholls horses this year. 5/2 Bet365 3.45 Newbury Fistral Beach can take the last for Nicholls / Walsh partnership on what cold be a very good day for them. 2 years ago, it started favourite for the Racing post chase won by Razor Royale at Kempton. It unseated that day and hasnt yet hit the same heights but off top weight today can go close, it likes this course having finished 2nd here twice and i expect a big run against seasoned handicappers 7/1 Bet365 0.5pts win double

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Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book no returns yesterday -2.3pts in total I'm a trainer man these days and Hobbs at Newbury should be feared, he banged in 2 winners yesterday at 22/1 and 12/1 and was close in the Hennessy with Planet of Sound. After the event i know, but just making a reference to it for the future. More and more now are Trainers targeting certain tracks as in recent weeks Nicholls, Henderson have shown by having 3, 4 winners at a single meeting.

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Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book 2.30 Sandown Gibb River seems a big price after a decent campaign last season and David Bass is an able pilot round here. Ran in the Supreme at the festival and although outclassed had racked up 3 wins prior to that. Flat track should suit it better today 0.5pts win 10/1 >B365 2.05 Chepstow Tarablaze is the pick here, goes on the ground, and look well treated off this mark, still only 8yo and Hobbs always has winners here. Rhys Flint gets on well with Hobbs horses and should go close. 0.5pts win 8/1 >B365 2.20 Wetherby Sure Josie Sure is Pipes only runner at the track and he could have a few winners across the country today. This one is dropping slightly down the weights now, won off 4lb lower than this when winnig at Perth last year but its the long journey north that interests me for this one, so lets hope its not a wasted trip for the pipes 0.05pts EW Patent = 0.7pts stake

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Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book Gibb River was unlucky yesterday running a game race in 3rd only beaten less than 0.5L 1.7pts staked 0.18pts returned Today 2.00 Kelso CHIEF DAN GEORGE 12/1 >B365 0.5pts win Stood out for me at a rating of 130 now. 12lb lower than its Cheltenham festival win 2 years ago Glad to see it back over 2m 6f which it is much better suited to and also runs well here with figures of 34423313 here in 8 runs. Is getting on a bit now but this race is perfect for it, i missed the 16/1 with >B365 so taking the 12's available

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Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book updates for October and November October Pastoral Player 9/1 1st stake 0.5 return 5 Captain Dunne stake 0.25 Prohibit stake 0.5 Rimth 14/1 stake 0.25 Lechavalier Choisi 40/1 stake 0.25 Parish hall 20/1 1st stake 0.3 return 6.3 Power 3/1 stake 0.7 Ermyn Lodge 16/1 stake 0.5 Red Riverman 14/1 stake 0.25 Five Dream 7/1 stake 0.25 Swincombe rock 8/1 stake 0.25 Pimpernel 10/3 stake 0.5 Silverware 13/2 stake 0.5 Patent stake 0.7 return 0.3 Balthazar king 1st 5/1 stake 0.5 return 3 Double with 1 NR stake 0.25EW return 0.6 Tinshu 16/1 stake 0.5 Patent stake 0.7 EW dbles and trebles stake 0.5 return 0.13 Harry Tricker 16/1 stake 0.5 Elsafeer 9/1 stake 0.5 Razor Royale 22/1 2nd stake 0.25 EW return 1.63 EW double stake 0.4 total stake 10.3 total return 16.96 P/L +6.66pts Yield +64.66% November Patent stake 0.4 Kiam bay 14/1 stake 0.5 Classic Vintage 22/1 stake 0.5 Demolition 25/1 stake 0.5 Amore mio 14/1 stake 0.5 Swing bill 9/1 1st stake 0.5 return 5 Great Endeavour 11/1 1st stake 1 return 12 Calgary bay 25/1 stake 0.3 Multiple stake 0.62 return 0.35 Reve de sivola 9/1 stake 0.5 Laustra bad 33/1 stake 0.25ew Nearby 33/1 stake 0.25ew Sanctuaire 14/1 stake 0.25 Olofi 16/1 stake 0.25 Third intention 18/1 stake 0.25 Exact stake 0.3 Fredo 16/1 stake 0.5ew Multiple stake 1.62 return 1.14 Blues & Twos 25/1 stake 0.5 Cinders & ashes 7/2 stake 1 Double stake 2 Overturn 3/1 stake 0.5 return 2 kalahari king 8/1 stake 0.5 Sa suffit 16/1 stake 0.5 Double stake 0.5 return 4.5 Amore mio 12/1 stake 0.25 Dice 25/1 stake 0.25ew Royal Mile 7/2 stake 0.5 Patent stake 0.7 return 0.65 Cosuin Khee 20/1 stake 0.25ew Aiteenthirtythree 13/2 stake 0.75 Wayward prince 8/1 stake 0.75 Double stake 0.5 Exacta stake 0.3 Total stake 20.49 Total return 23.59 P/L +3.10 Yield +15.12% will update main totals when i get back on my other laptop but 2 good months of profit thanks to decent returns on a few horses

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Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book 2,30 Cheltenham Spinal Research The Atlantic 4 Gold Cup (Grade 3 Handicap Chase) Key trends over 12 years Age 6-8 - 12/12 Weight 11st 4lb or under - 9/12 (tamarinBleu ruined this trend in 2007 carrying 11st 8lb & Poquelin last 2 years carrying big weights) Weight under 11st - 6/12 SP 9/1 or under - 9/12 Highest SP 22/1 (again in 2007 !! previous was 16/1) Irish winners 2/12 Favs 1/12 1-3 outings that season - 12/12 Course form - 12/12 Course winners - 7/12 Competed in 6 chases or more - 12/12 Won a graded chase 7/13 In 1st 3 LTO - 10/12 Key stats are age, 1-3 runs, course form and in 1st 3 LTO Remove Roberto Goldback, Imsingingtheblues, Fingeronthepulse, Nomecheki are all obvious on the age grounds Tatenan, Salut flo and Mad Moose dont fit the 1-3 runs category Now lets look at course form... Woolcombe folly 20110 Great Endeavour 1F26130 Medermit 430332 Ghizao 512021 Calgary bay 024560101 Quantativeeasing 2275 Redoudo ville Divers 3152 Sunyhillboy F37201 Matuhi 600 so any of the above can win thbis race based on the main stats lets look at the 6 chase stat also so remove Roudoudou ville Now with those in 1st 3 LTO, this leaves Woolcombe Folly course winner Medermit Quantativeeasing Divers Course winner This is a strong 4 to have on side in this race My final thoughts on the race: Woolcombe Folly course winner hasnt raced further than 19f and may not stay Medermit seems to win in small fields and no hiding place here with 17 runners Quantativeeasing 9lb better off with >Paddy Power winner Great Endeavour Divers Course winner 12lb better off with Great Endeavour My final bets are with the >Paddy Power form Quantativeasing 8/1 >B365 0.5pts win Divers 8/1 >B365 0.5pts win

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Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book Posted last night on the jumps thread: Personally think Henderson could have another good day tomorrow. He managed 3 winners today and can do that again tomorrow Cheltenham 12.45 MOSSLEY l.ikes it here finishing 1st ans 2nd in 2 starts. Wasnt impressive on chase debut in 3 runner affair at Kempton but should be better for that. Pretty sure this one could go places 11/4 1.20 TANKS FOR THAT finally won here lTO under Geraghty and he stays on this one today in a race Henderson has won 3 times in last 8 years. Up 9lb for that last victory but worth following whilst in form 9/2 2.30 already tipped QUANTATIVEEASING in my trends 8/1 3.05 GRANDOUET is my ante post Champion Hurdle bet and i just hope it can win this excellent renewal. Expect its CH odds to shorten after tomorrow if it wins 11/4 Henderson also has Oscar whisky in the last at prohibitive odds but should win i'll have a yankee on the other 4 horses

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Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book forgot to put my stake down for the multiple but it was 0.55pts in total for the yankee Quantativeeasing & Grandouet both win (mossley 2nd Tanks for that fell) Staked 1.55pts Returned 6.17pts (4.5pts for the single and 1.67pts for the yankee)

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Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book Hereford 1.45 Ascendent looks to have this race ij the bag, my only concern is Nicholls rarely runs horses in sellers but this one is from the wylie partnership recently formed. Won a class 3 race on last start but been off the track a while. The only one that wrries me is Sahrati which is a decent price so will cover on that one. Sahrati won off 128 before so possibly can get in the frame here or even trouble the fav if there are any chinks in its armour. The ground could be a slight concern as prefers it faster. 2.45 Rarely do i get McCoy right but Cross the flags has a decet chance on building on its recent win. Only a 4yo so has a bit of scope also left and although has to run off a 10lb higher mark has the champ in the plate. Bets Ascendent Evs/Cross the flags 3/1 0.5pts win double Sahrati 16/1 0.1pt ew

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Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book Newbury 12.50 Penny Max was fancied last time out at Plumpton but that is a specialist track and perhaps the plan was wrong as it didnt make up the ground required to finish any higher than 3rd place. RAn well here over hurdles and should get the 3m trip. Trainer ben in decent form and this should be a fair price also. Loves it soft which it will get tomorrow on this long run in. 0.5pts win 5/1 B365

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