Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book

[bowles10]

Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book

4.35 Perth Been looking through the races and finally found a bet. This is a marathon event over 3m 7f, and many just wont stay. Twoston Davies doesnt often leave without some decent prize money at this track and PETITE MARGOT despite being 2yo now has a great chance of running to its chasing mark of last year where it finished 2nd off 20lb higher mark (!! yes 20lb!!). The trainers son is a capable rider now and great to see him on board. 9/1 with Stan James - 1pt win

thanks guys, just held on at the line, great ride by sam 1pt staked 10pts returned

[bowles10]

Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book will post up my guineas bet in next post however firstly, the 2.00 race at Newmarket which does look a competitive handicap as usual and no doubt a number of winers wil come from this race I have backed BRICK RED a number of times and was told to keep an eye out for this one at this meeting. Connections would have preferred rain to soften the ground up a bit however hopefuly the extra 1f will help it today also. If the ground had been god or worse i would be having a bigger bet but today will keep to a 0.5pt win stake at 14/1 Bet365 My other selection for the race is Al Zarooni's horse NAMECHECK and the booking of M Barzalona is significant with the jockey already making a great impact in the short time he has ridden here. The horse only raced once as a 3yo and would have to be respected here in a clas 2 handicap as the horse would have been considered as a possible group horse. Will stay further than this also, so no worries over the trip. Bets Namecheck 0.5pts win 12/1 Bet365 Brick Red 0.5pts win 14/1 Bet365

[bowles10]

Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book 2000 GUINEAS - SATURDAY NEWMARKET 1/14 Fav 13/14 had won a race (last years winner hadnt run before) 11/14 SP between 7/2 - 11/1 10/14 Winner LTO 11/14 Season debut 12/14 2 or more runs 5/14 Distance winner 8/14 Non distance winner 4/14 Course winner RPR 118-131 last 10 winners Last years 1st time out winner @ 33/1 messed up the stats a bit The best animal (last years leading 2yo) coming into this race doesnt always win, hence the poor fav stats. The profile i think here is 11/1 under, 2 or more runs, seasonal debut, stepping up in trip, RPR 118-131, win or place LTO and note those that won at HQ Fury meets all those trends although the SP likely to be higher than 11/1 Pathfork 2nd fav here today is another to take on the favourite Lets have those 2 against the field today Fury 16/1 Bet365 0.25pts ew Pathfork 7/1 >Bet365 0.5pts win

[bowles10]

Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book 745 Doncaster STAR ROVER stepped up to 6f tonight. David Evans 4yo is an accomplished sprinter Should be able to dictate on this fast ground and this looks an ideal opportunity for the horse to finally win over 6f. Come down the weights now and CAthy Gannon rides her fair share of winners. 0.75pts @ 20/1 >Bet365

[bowles10]

Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book Star Rover beaten a hd at 20's last night would have made my month !!! Only had the win bet and something tells me that it should have been EW however that is how i bet !! lost a bit of profit yesterday 2.75pts

[bowles10]

Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book 1000 Guineas Sunday 3.15 Newmarket 12/13 SP 14/1 or under 8/13 seasonal debut 9/13 LTO 1st 12/13 LTO 4th or better 2/13 Distance winners 7/13 Course winner 12/13 3 or more runs 11/13 Won at least 2 races 7/13 LTO ran at Newmarket looks like the profile of the winner is 14/1 or lower (expected SP) LTO 4th or better 3 or more runs Won at least twice also look at hose raced at newmarket LTO and a bonus as a course winner BArefoot Lady © Blue Bunting (CD) Empowering Hooray © Maqaasid Misty for me Moonlight cloud Nova Hawk The Shrew distance winners are a negative so those raced over 7f would be favoured Leaves us with these 3 below BArefoot LAdy 22/1 is a big price and worth an EW Maqaasid is around 28/1 and as the race favours LTO winners also, i will leave out Moonlight cloud 5/1 Bet365 Bets Barefoot Lady 0.25pts ew 22/1 >Bet365 Moonlight cloud 0.5pts win 11/2 >Bet365

[bowles10]

Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book 3.50 Newmarket Handicap 6f Class 2 Weight 12/13 winners have been 8st 6lb or above. 6 of those have been above 9st 5lb. Last years winner only carried 8st 1lb bucking this trend Lose Rocket rob, Hamoody, Baldemar, Clear praise Age 11 of the last 12 winners have been aged 4-7. 4yo's winning 5 times, 5yo's 4times, 6yo once, 7yo twice. Lose the old timers in the field Johannes Barney Magrew Course form 10 of the last 12 winners had ran at the track at least twice, however only 4 had won here previously. Last year winner again bucked this trend Lose Citrus Star (1), Lui Rey, Hawkeyethenoo (1), Drawnfromthepast, Tiddliwinks, Frattelino (1), Fireback (1), Novellen Lad (1) LTO 10 of the last 13 winners had already had at least 1 run, 8 of which had 1 or 2 runs, the exception being the 04 winner which came off an AW campaign. So only 3 had thier debut seasonal run in this race. 10 of the last 13 had finished 5th or better on their last outing. Lose Prime Defender 6th LTO, Swilly Ferry debut, Colonel Mak LTO 0, Hawkeyethenoo debut, Pastroal player debut, Docofthebay 6th LTO, Fivestarjunior LTO 8th, Silaah LTO 9th, Wildcat wizard 6th LTO, Edinburgh knight debut. Draw Before 2009, only 1 single figure draw winning in last 11 & that was in 1999. In 2009, stall 1 won and last year stall 5. Before that, the lowest winner was stall 12 & 6 have been drawn in the 20's since 1998. SP The range has been from 4/1 to 25/1 over the last 10 years. 2 Favs have won in 02 & 03 @ 4's & 11/2. Leaves JACK MY BOY drawn 26 (c/d winner won agt this meeting last year, ran last week over 7f but 6f is best trip, 6lb higher than best mark & jockey booking interesting) CURTAINS drawn 19 (raced here 3 times before finishing 4-4-7) Has won off 93, so 5lb lower than best mark. Bets JACK MY BOY 25/1 >Bet365 0.25pts ew (1st 5) CURTAINS 20/1 >Bet365 0.5pts ew (1st 5)

[bowles10]

Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book another blank day yesterday losing 2.5pts on the day, looking to get back to winning ways today with a couple of bets: 3.50 Beverley Doctor Zhivago is the one for me here. I have backed it twice this season over 1m 2f and noted it both times it needed a drop in class and a drop in distance. Today we have that with the horse back to a 1m trip and into class 4. Started this season in a class 2 race and performed ok. I am absolutely amazed that the horse is 8/1 as i would have it around half those odds. Doctor Zhivago 1pt win @ 8/1 >Bet365

[bowles10]

Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book also got a free bet from Bet365 today on the 3.25 Windsor for 1pt. 3.25 Windsor Ive got the race down to 2 possibles, Constant Craving and Edgeworth. Constant craving has only had 1 race winning a maiden here last year on its debut, so not much to go on especially against these experienced handicappers. The other one that captures the eye is EDGEWORTH with Cathy GAnnon on board, she rides this track well and always seems to get the best out of her horses. The horse would have to show improvement in this grade to win but with a truely run race expected with True to form trying to mkae all, this one could be the one staying on at the end. As i have a free bet, i wil stick it on EDGEWORTH at much higher odds with a cover on Constant cravng. Bets EDGEWORTH 1pt win @ 12/1 Bet365 (free bet) CONSTANT CRAVING 0.5pts win @ 10/3 Bet365

[bowles10]

Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book the rest of the windsor card 2.25 Dont rule out the 2 old timers here with GWILYM and MEMPHIS MAN both appearing in this apprentice event. Both have decent jocks on board also. ANJOMARBA is the only one in the field i would have against these 2. Having an combination exacta on those named above. 2.55 Hannon is the man to follow at this track and his GET CARTER won here in April last year off a higher mark of 80. I fully expect this one to go close again 3.55 Barry Hills also brings a few winners to the track and CHEQUE BOOK could be the one here. Won on debut at Chester last year and has a recent run in france under its belt. Bets Exacta 0.3pts total stake ANJOMARBA, GWILYM and MEMPHIS MAN EW Multiple of GET CARTER, DOCTOR ZHIVAGO, CHEQUE BOOK, CONSTANT CRAVING, ANJOMARBA. 0.7pts staked

[bowles10]

Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book big race at Kempton 4.00 Jubilee Hcap over a mile I gave a decent chance to HUYGENS the other week at Sandown only for it to be pulled out before the race possibly due to the fast ground that day. Must follow it again today back at Kempton where it scored last year over the trip. It is a very competitve race and it should go make the frame if it gets the gaps it will need to make a late challenge. Spencer rides the horse for the 1st time and the trainer is in good form with 3 winners from 8 runs so far this season. 0.5pts win @ 6/1 >Bet365

[bowles10]

[bowles10]

Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book 3pts staked today in total (the free bet taken off) Doctor Zhivago was backed from 8/1 to an SP of 9/2 but didnt get the break i feel it needs at the start from stall 2. Nicholls tried to get it past the favourite from the outside but it never got any closer than the 1.5L it was beaten into 2nd place. Today was its day but hopefully Nicholls will keep it at 1m and try to win races with it. Huygens ran ok in 4th and i am hoping to see this one on turf perhaps in a decent handicap at the Royal meeting in June. Edgeworth will have another day at windsor no doubt, finished 4th nearly getting up for 3rd under an decent ride for Cathy Gannon. Constant craving was no good. My exacta came in for a return of 1.87pts for 0.3pts stake with an 11/1 winner and 3/1 2nd. My multiple staked 0.7pts and returned 0.1pts with 2 places. Overall 3pts staked 1.97pts returned

[bowles10]

Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book 2.55 Chester - Chester Cup - Wednesday Age In the last 13 years, four 4yo's, two 5yo's, five 6yo's two 7yo's have won the race showing its an open race to all ages. 2 of the 4yo's have gone onto win it again in thier career. Weight A wide range of weights from 8st 1lb to 9st 13lb. 9st 2lb or under have won 10 from 13. No jockey with a claim has won it in the last 12 years. Draw Single figure draws have won 9 from last 13, however Greenwich Meantime was drawn 16 of 17 in 07 & Bulwark 11 of 17 in 08. SP Favs have won 3 of last 13 (Incl last year @ 7/1). 16/1 or under seems to be the limit as 11 of last 13 have won within that range. Form The last 13 winners were either making their debut or had had 1 run that season. In fact the split of those was 50/50 with 7 (debut) and 6 (1 run). 6 of these winners had ran in the Chester cup before with 3 of them 3rd or better in prevous year. Last years winner was running 1st time at Chester. Distance 9 of the last 13 had won previously over 16f or further, the other 4 having won over 10f, 12f, 13f & 14f. Class 10 of the last 13 winners had won a class 3 handicap or better. LAst years winner was more known as a hurdler than a flat horse. Summary We are dismissing everything aged above 7 which removes Sentry duty, Blue Bajan Halla San (3) Next we take out those who have had more than 1 run this season to date which removes Montaff (1) Remove horses ridden by apprentices - Plymouth Rock (1) The class wins & distance wins takes out Red CAdeaux, Icon dream (2) Lets look at the weight, draw and course form of those left: Tastahil - 2nd here last year off 108 (3lb higher now) Drawn 3 Dirar - 1st time on this course 9st 7lb drawn 12 DArley Sun - debut on course 9st 1lb drawn 13 Mamlook - 4lb higher than last years victory in this race drawn 9 Overturn - debut on course drawn 1, frontrunner La Vecchia Scuola - ran here 5 times before drawn 2 looks too high in weights Admiral barry - drawn 4 debut on the course Mount Athos - debut on this course, stamina doubts, badly drawn in 19 Swingkeel - 5th last year from a much better draw - 17 not so good Mystery star - 2nd here before on this course - drawn badly though 10 on the shortlist, we should look at the draw as i still believe low numbers should be favoured even over this trip. Also course form should be taken into consideration so Tastahil - too much weight? Mamlook - after a repeat win overturn - will lead based on its hurdle runs, get the trip also Admiral BArry - gets the trip also and could be best of the irish but they have poor record in this race My final recommendations are Mamlook 0.5pts win 12/1 >Bet365 Overturn 0.5pts win 11/2 >Bet365

[bowles10]

Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book

2.55 Chester - Chester Cup - Wednesday My final recommendations are Mamlook 0.5pts win 12/1 >Bet365 Overturn 0.5pts win 11/2 >Bet365 1st 11/2 :nana

1pt staked 3.25pts returned

[bowles10]

Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book Goodwood 3.50 Thursday METROPOLITAN MISS 4/1 Bet365 0.5pts win I saw this run last week at ascot and felt it would win another race. It was 2nd behind Emmas gift that day and good to see it out again quickly with the trainer in very good form also, 6 winners since last Friday. The Michael Bell/Hayley Turner horse Desert shine is the danger however its an unknown on turf and last ran 2 months ago. The favouite Deity will attract market support which should help the price on the Channon horse

[bowles10]

Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book Metropolitan Miss was 3rd yesterday today 3.30 Chester (too much racing today!) Julius Geezer should be given an EW chance here. Drawn in stall 7 but will get out and hopefully lesad from the front, personally think the Godolphin horse may be too god but this one wont lie down and won at this meeting last year as a 2yo. Trainer Dascombe already had a winner here this week. 12/1 Bet365 looks a big price but good for ew with 8 runners 0.25pts ew

[bowles10]

Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book tonight at windsor 5.40 Windsor At times here you can back Hannon's 2yo's blind, and in this race he saddles BALM with Ryan Moore on boarda and also the favourite GLEE which Hughes rides. Glee will stay further so i epect we will that one over longer distances in the future. Either one of these 2 should win so i am favouring BALM which is 6/1 over the 11/10 for the fav. 6/1 6.10 When Fallon teams up with Cumani here, things normally go well and PRAXIOS looks a typical Cumani horse in the handicap for the first time and a mark of 72 could be the time to get on. Some other potential winers in this fieldf also from Hills & Butler stable 7/2 6.40 SIDE GLANCE ran away with a decent race at Ascot last week and should land this off a short price. Dunelight will make sure there is plenty of pace in the race. Evs 7.10 FRANCISCAN can land a double for Fallon/Cumani partnership here tonight, only gone up 3lb for recent win at Haydock and possibly has more to give. 11/4 7.40 MOMENT OF TIME has an oaks entry and is a fair price agianst the very short favourite from Cumani 4/1 might have a look at the last race as rushing this bet on now L31 multiple on the above 5 (0.75pts staked)

[bowles10]

Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book 8.10 havent got time for the write up but not missing out on 16/1 for a hannon/moore horse who ran ok here the other week behind dubai glory, perhaps those 2 can be in th eplaces again so i have covered dubai glory also for small amount september draw 0.4pts win 16/1 bet365 dubai glory 0.1pts win 6/1 bet365

[stewartd14]

Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book

8.10 havent got time for the write up but not missing out on 16/1 for a hannon/moore horse who ran ok here the other week behind dubai glory, perhaps those 2 can be in th eplaces again so i have covered dubai glory also for small amount september draw 0.4pts win 16/1 bet365 dubai glory 0.1pts win 6/1 bet365

:clap Saver does it gamely.

[bowles10]

Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book Thanks Stewart, i needed a return on that race to save some face. overall last night including 1 winner in the multiple bet 1.25pts staked 0.75pts returned

[bowles10]

Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book 4.00 Beverley DABBERS RIDGE is a 14/1 shot for this race, has great course form with figures of 3-3-1-1-3 from its 5 starts here. Has won off a higher mark and likes the ground. Trainer is out of form however i have to give this one a fair chance based on that previous course form (albeit 3 of the runs were over 7f and this is a mile). Hail promenader and Aquarian spirit rate the dangers. 0.5pts win 14/1 Bet365

[bowles10]

Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book 2.50 Yarmouth JONNIE SKULL can notch up a hat trick now and the booking of Fallon is another plus. Won off a mark of 50 at Southwell on the AW, followed by a follow up win off 45 on turf and now off that mark again should go in again. Snapped up the 5/2 available as surprised this isnt a 7/4 shot today 1pt win @ 5/2 Bet365

[Elchubb]

Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book you can still get 3-1 @ betfred bowles!

[bowles10]

Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book Jonnie Skull started 9/4 but could only get 3rd, Dabbers ridge was a NR 1pt staked 0pts returned

[bowles10]

Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book York isnt one of my favourite tracks as i often struggle to find winners here so i stick to horses i have seen and made a note of. 3.0 York No surprise to see INLER lining up in this company again after its fine run behind Genki last time out. Finished a close up 5th and could get the better of that rival this time. Is double the odds of Genki, so i will be having some of the 14/1 available tonight. The age trend also appears to be 4 & 5yo's favoured. The high draw is the only negative for me as the history of the race points towards a low draw. Bet 0.5pts @ 14/1 Corals I also see Doctor Zhivago runs again (3.35 York) but over 1m 4f which i just cant see that will suit the horse as i believe it needs a mile or even shorter.

[bowles10]

Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book Inler no good and Doctor Zhivago deffo back in trip to watch out for 1 tonight 850 Kempton TARTAN TRIP 0.5pts win @ 5/1 Bet365 Not sure if they have already backed this one but i often follow my horses next time out, so after seeing the selection at Ascot last time, i still believe this is one to be on. Has some form on the AW so not bothered about the change from turf

[bowles10]

Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book Tartan Trip 2nd, the winner had sprouted and TT got going too late York Thursday 1.30 Johannes can come back to form today for in form Fahey. The horse is one of a few who can come off a fast pace from behind which is required here. Back on same winning mark as victory at last years meeting. 9/2 >B365 2.00 I often go against the favs in these races and MUSIC SHOW is interesting over 10f for the 1st time, i personally think the horse will be better over this trip and the race should be ran at a decent clip with the godolphin horse likely to lead. Spencer rides this one for in form trainer Channon and might just give Midday some opposition as they hit the final furlong 7/1 >B365 2.30 World Domination could be apltly named as a star for the future and will be waiting to pounce on the favourite who seems likely to take this up to get away from the field. Only going on what i have read to date and seen on its debut. 11/4 >B365 3.00 St Moritz ran well enough at Ascot behind Side Glance to be followed again. Won off this mark previously and race will be ran t suit 15/2 >B365 4.45 Hawridge Star would appreciate some rain and may get it during the day. Moore jocked up which is a positive and hopefully this one can go close over this longer distance. 7/1 >B365 Taking a multiple on the above in the form of Win doubles x 10 and EW trebles and upwards = 1pt staked overall Also having an EW double on ST MORITZ and JOHANNES for 0.25pts EW

[bowles10]

Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book stuck with Music Show but went EW on the single 0.5pts EW @ 5/1 (8 runners which looks nailed on a place for me)

[bowles10]

Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book feel bloody stupid today or just a bit robbed after doing 5 races where i should stick to just 1 or 2 handicaps as i am useless at the group races, picked out st moritz yet didnt draw any money, if Music show had placed, i would have still been playing and backed moritz on its own, idiot!! 2.5pts staked on the day, f all returned !!!