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Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book


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Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book Thanks Stewart, needed to get up to date and pleased with the totals 12.00 Newbury Personally feel the trip may find out Ghizao as this will take some getting here at Newbury after the recent rain etc, Captain Chris is possibly too short for me also in what could be an open contest with 2 interesting horses from France Surfing and Lucky to be. I will side with Hendersons SURFING to win this especially as the trainer often comes into decent form this time of year and the price looks far better than the front 2. 9/2 Bet365 5pts win

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Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book 7.20 Kempton Farleigh House caught my eye when beating the ex PL horse Dhaular Dhar over hurdles last december at Doncaster. The horse will have no problem with the trip and the lovely Hayley Turner is taking the ride (fnarr!). Has won off a higher mark and could give a good account here. Ran ok the other week on the AW so lets have a small punt. 2pts win 11/1 >Bet365

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Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book 2 losers yesterday Today at Taunton 3.30 GILDED AGE 28.0 >Betfair 3pts win Peter Hatton has impressed me as a conditional jockey and picks up another Alan King ride here. The horse was 6th in the Triumph Hurdle last season 15L behind Soldatino and some other very good horses. Finished off last seaosn in the punchestown race won by Barizan and the horse was beaten 30L that day after never getting in a blow against the front runner. This season has not yet got going and went novice chasing last time out 3rd of 5. Interesting back at the hurdling game over a longer distance and with Hatton's 8lb claim, the horse runs off 122. The price on >Betfair is my sort of price so a win bet for me at those odds in a very competitive race.

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Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book Saturday Cheltenham 2.35 (2m 5f) AGE:A range of ages has won the race, 6, 7, 8(x2), 9(x3), 10(x3) & 11. KEY AGE RANGE: 8 to 10 - 8/11 WEIGHT: I have looked at 2 weight ranges for this race. 11st & under - 7/11 11st 4lb & under - 9/11 PRICE: 10/1 or under - 10/11 COURSE: Previous Cheltenham form - 10/11 Previous course winner - 5/10 OTHER STATS: Horses ran within 35 days of the race - 9/11 Debuts - 0/11 Favs - 2/11 2-4 runs this season - 10/11 Won this season - 6/11 4th or better this season - 10/11 Previous Cheltenham form is key to this track, remove Pickamus, quito de tresor The weight range of 11st 4lb and under is also taken into consideration which removes Taranis, Hey big spender, Tartak, imsingingtheblues, knockara beau, mahogany blaze (will come back to these later as not sure !) Stick with those horses that have ran 2-4 times this season and 4th or better on one of those runs (can’t buy time ruined both of these trends last year but they still stand out). Removes Caroles Legacy, Cant buy time, Patman du charmil The key age range is between 8 and 10, so removes Five Dream, Mister McGoldrick This leaves 2 horses in Door Boy and Moon Over Miami, so lets look at those 2. Neither have ran within 35 days of the race which could be down to the recent weather conditions to be honest with so many meetings falling to the weather. Door boy ran in the >Paddy Power as a 40/1 chance and was hampered 4 out and was pulled up. Fell in the Jewson at the festival last year and this one doesn’t inspire me too much to warrant a selection to be honest. Moon over Miami wins have all come over shorter and only once above 2m. Does not look up to this class these days and can also be overlooked. So let’s look at those trends which perhaps can be broken and the ones i will look at are Caroles Legacy who is returning to chasing from hurdling and off 141 looks to have some improvement still to come. The horse will like the trip as stays further and is an interesting entry. Hey big spender would prefer it softer and if it goes that way would be a bet for me, fell at the last in the Hennessy when lying in 3rd place, ran a blinder that day and likes it round here. Knockara Beau has ran its best races at this distance over the years and good to see it back at the trip, has won off 1lb lower than this so can be expected to have a good run. Bets Caroles Legacy 5/1 3pts win Bet365 Hey big Spender 7/1 3pts win >Bet365 Knockara Beau 10/1 3pts win >Bet365

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Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book 12.55 Cheltenham CELESTIAL HALO An old favourite of mine lines up in this and Nicholls did say last time out was a bit of a fact finding mission with the horse again after a disastrous attempt at chasing. CH always runs well here and Nicholls knows it has lost the speed to win a Champion Hurdle now and must go for these longer distances. Beaten by Karabak and Any Given Day last time out in the Relkeel Hurdle, CH is not too badly off at the weights today and could give both a run for thier money today. 7/2 Bet365 2.35 Cheltenham CAROLES LEGACY Already shown in my trends thread, this one should go close with everything in its favour today. 5/1 Bet365 2.00 Cheltenham MASTER OF THE HALL Henderson has a potential good one here and will come on for its Ascot victory where a last fence blunder nearly cost it the race. Has some course specialists to beat today and the liks of Mr Thriller and Reve De Sivola will give it a decent race. 5/1 Bet365 2pt win trixie = 8pts staked

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Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book not a god day yesterday with Caroles Legacy coming the closest to winning (2nd). -17pts Today 2.25 Ayr 2m 4f narrowed this one down to 4 with conditions, distance, ratings all taken into account: Culcabock 8lb lower than best win, campaigned over shorter recently buyt has a CD win Nodforms voilet has some form especially the 6th behind Devil to pay at Cheltenham, ran recently on the AW at Southwell in one of the NH Flat races, this one could surprise Worth a kings has only ever won in a small field and although looks to have a fav's chance, i am concerned about the size of the field Diklers Oscar is another with some fair form, only 16L behind Caroles legacy back in April 2010 of those above, i will be backing both Diklers Oscar and Nodforms Violet 2.5pts win on both 9/2 Hils Dilklers Oscar 11/1 Nodforms violet

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Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book 2.10 Plumpton KAWAGINO 3 races at the course, 2 wins and fell at 2nd fence in this race last year. Now an 11yo has had a chequered career having run in the Champion Hurdle in 2007 and 2008, and now plying its trade in these Nationals, having finished 2nd at Fontwell last time out. Loves a bit of cut in the ground and should give a good account today. Off 7lb higher than last win but same rating as the recent 2nd place behind pipes Peut Etra sivola and is 7lb better off for a 6L defeat. 20/1 Sportingbet 2pts win

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Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book

not a god day yesterday with Caroles Legacy coming the closest to winning (2nd). -17pts Today 2.25 Ayr 2m 4f narrowed this one down to 4 with conditions, distance, ratings all taken into account: Culcabock 8lb lower than best win, campaigned over shorter recently buyt has a CD win Nodforms voilet has some form especially the 6th behind Devil to pay at Cheltenham, ran recently on the AW at Southwell in one of the NH Flat races, this one could surprise Worth a kings has only ever won in a small field and although looks to have a fav's chance, i am concerned about the size of the field Diklers Oscar is another with some fair form, only 16L behind Caroles legacy back in April 2010 of those above, i will be backing both Diklers Oscar and Nodforms Violet 2.5pts win on both 9/2 Hils Dilklers Oscar 11/1 Nodforms violet
1st and 2nd :nana:nana Fantastic tipping :clap Hope you had something on the forecast mate :hope
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Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book

1st and 2nd :nana:nana Fantastic tipping :clap Hope you had something on the forecast mate :hope
Thanks mate, no didnt do the forecast ! Wanted Nodforms really at the prices but happy to have the winner at much better than SP. Diklers was well backed, wish i had som of the 7's this morning but didnt get up early enough :unsure Kawagino was very unlucky in the Plumpton race also when making a terrible mistake when in 3rd place and then still getting round in 5th, the horse was going so well and i think would have been involved.
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Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book 3.00 Hereford Jump up Ridden by Rhys Flint, one of 2 rides for this under-rated jockey on the card. Into Handicap company for the 1st time and stepped up in trip which i think the horse should appreciate. The horse has decent form figures and hasnt been out the 1st 3 yet in its short career. 18/1 >Bet365 - 4pts win 2.40 Ayr Quws Law I kept looking at this race and struggling to find a clear winner therefore i feel its an open race that could be won by an outsider. Quws Law has 4 career wins all at this track. Its now running off a career low mark of 110. The cheekpieces are off today but the tongue tie remains. The horse stays 3m. Has course figures of 4 wins, 3 places from 10 starts here. 25/1 Stan James - 4pts win 1pt ew double at B365 18/1, 20/1

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Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book Nothing returned last monday, both pulled up Today Chepstow Coral Welsh National - 1.45 Saturday Age 6-9 -12/12

Weight

10st 9lb or less - 10/12

Ratings

OR between 125-137 - 9/12

Form

Placed LTO - 10/12

Runs in season 1-2 - 12/12

Last ran

Course winners - 8/12

Pointers

1st 9 in the betting had provided last 11 winners until last year when Dram alliance won at 20/1

SP

Priced 14/1 or less - 10/12

Fav - 1/12

So, we are looking for a horse aged 6-9 whch takes out Dream alliance, Erics charm, Ballyfoy, Ballyfitz, Royal Rosa, Magic Sky, Flight leder, Theatre dance, old benny We can also remove any horse who has had more than 2 runs this season or makes it debut taking out Watamu bay, Imoncloudnine, Dashing george PLaced LTO (including winners) is another decent stat, so this takes out Silver by nature, synchronised, Arbor supreme, Ballyfoy, Giles cross, Bench warrant none of whom were 1-2-3 on their last start so this leaves us with the following, i have put their weights & OR alongside also Exmoor Ranger 11st 1lb 145 29 days lTO Dance Island 10st 7lb `137 49 days lto © Maktu 10st 6lb 136 65 days lto © I have listed the course winners also, favourites have a poor record & that is between Maktu and synchronised. of the others Giles Cross has a squeak and matches most of the key trends apart from LTO stat as it pulled up Bets Exmoor Ranger 16/1 Bet365 2.5pts win Dance Island 10/1 Bet365 2.5pts win Maktu 6/1 Bet365 2.5pts win Giles cross 16/1 Bet365 2.5pts win 2.40 Sandown - Tolworth Hurdle I also reviewed this race in my trends and Minella Class came out on top in a race where i feel its possibly a match between the henderson and Nicholls horse Toubab Bets Minella Class 15/8 Bet365 5pts win 2.20 Chepstow OR BLEU runs well on soft gorund, that is the biggest fact here and having dropped now to a mark 6lb lower than last win, and with Giles Hawkins claimig 5lbs also, this lightweight could surprise here. Trainer Hobbs has a decent record here also and this slog of a track may find a few out, i expect Or Bleu will give a good account today. Bets Or Bleu 12/1 Bet365 3pts win 3.15 Sandown I think that the trip will find a few out today as this is a quick 2m but todays ground will mean a few willl struggle up the hill to the finish, FRENCH OPERA was a class act last season and happy to see David Bass taking a few pounds off its back today. The horse will get home and is as game as any, Henderson has said good things about the horse and his string has hit decent form since the cold snap. The Nicholls pair will both run well but Fiendish flame will also be thereabouts, as French opera is a better price than FF, i think that looks the bst value on the day Bets French Opera 11/2 Bet365 5pts win 1pt EW Treble on Or Bleu Minella class French Opera

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Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book

Today Chepstow >Coral Welsh National - 1.45 Saturday (-10pts) Bets Exmoor Ranger 16/1 Bet365 2.5pts win :eyes Dance Island 10/1 Bet365 2.5pts win :eyes Maktu 6/1 Bet365 2.5pts win :eyes Giles cross 16/1 Bet365 2.5pts win 2ND 2.40 Sandown - Tolworth Hurdle (+9.35pts) Bets Minella Class 15/8 Bet365 5pts win 1ST :clap 2.20 Chepstow (-3pts) Bets Or Bleu 12/1 Bet365 3pts win 2ND 3.15 Sandown (-5pts) Bets French Opera 11/2 Bet365 5pts win :eyes 1pt EW Treble on Or Bleu 2nd :) Minella class 1st :) French Opera :eyes
25pts staked on a busy day 14.35pts returned 2 decent priced second places also but a loss on the day
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Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book Relying on my trends today 2.25 Leopardstown Sunday MCR Hurdle 26 runners this year ! Looking at the trends: Age 6 - 8yo's - 11 out of 12 6-7yo's - 9 out of 12 9yo+ - 0 out of 12 Weight 11st 1lb+ - 1 out of 12 Favs 4 out of 12 I have decided to use the above stats to remove all horses weighted above 11st 1lb & also those outside of the 6-8yo age bracket taking out alpine eagle, slievardagh, fosters cross, new phase, unhimnged, whodoyouthink, northern alliance, final approach, capellanus, mosstown, mutadarek In 9 of those 12 years, the winner had finished 1st or 2nd on previous outing. 10 out of 12 had ran previously no later than November. 7 out of 12 had contested a graded race during its career. 0 out of 11 had come straight from Novice company to win this. Those who have ran LTO before november are taken out: Casey top, call the police. Last years winner again fitted the trends being an 8yo which was 2nd LTO. Finally, with a list of those that had finished 1st or 2nd LTO, i was left with: Lancetto 22/1 >B365 3pts win Prima Vista 5/1 b365 - 3pts win Wilde wit pleaseure Asigh Pearl Belord 20/1 b365 - 3pts win the 3 in bold are my final 3 after taking a good look at the way the horses run, you have to be competitve in this race and waiting tactics wont be any good.

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Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book 1.40 Newcastle Leith Walk, trainer has a good record here and this one has dropped to an attractive mark with the 10lb claimer on board (trainer's son?) taking its weight down to a mark of OR87. Stays further which helps on this long run in. 14/1 2.00 Leicester Laborec, another trainer pick with N King having decnet stats here. this one will like the ground and now has the conditions to win off this mark in this seller 9/4 2.30 Leicester Anquetta, on the trainer theme still, Henderson horses place here over 66% so they are mostly thereabouts. Needs to jump better but intersting return to 2m 4/1 4.00 Leicester Rushwee, Mrs Wadham has the best trainer stats of these. it looks a poor race and the selection will have to overcome a long absence but the price today is low enough to make me think they have a chance in this type of race. 9/2 0.4pts win L15

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Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book 1.40 Newcastle Leith Walk, trainer has a good record here and this one has dropped to an attractive mark with the 10lb claimer on board (trainer's son?) taking its weight down to a mark of OR87. Stays further which helps on this long run in. 14/1 taken 2pts win @ 23.0 betfair

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Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book

1.40 Newcastle Leith Walk, trainer has a good record here and this one has dropped to an attractive mark with the 10lb claimer on board (trainer's son?) taking its weight down to a mark of OR87. Stays further which helps on this long run in. 14/1 2.00 Leicester Laborec, another trainer pick with N King having decnet stats here. this one will like the ground and now has the conditions to win off this mark in this seller:clap 9/4 2.30 Leicester Anquetta, on the trainer theme still, Henderson horses place here over 66% so they are mostly thereabouts. Needs to jump better but intersting return to 2m 4/1:clap 4.00 Leicester Rushwee, Mrs Wadham has the best trainer stats of these. it looks a poor race and the selection will have to overcome a long absence but the price today is low enough to make me think they have a chance in this type of race. 9/2 0.4pts win L15
2 winners in the multiple today, the single bet lost today 8pts staked 11.5pts returned on 9/4 EP and 5/1 SP
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Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book Well done Bowles :clap Read your thread this morning and I took your picks in a small yankee. Made me 56p :lol and gave me great interest throughout the day. Well done....... .... now Where is your Donate button :loon

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Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book

Well done Bowles :clap Read your thread this morning and I took your picks in a small yankee. Made me 56p :lol and gave me great interest throughout the day. Well done....... .... now Where is your Donate button :loon
many thanks Pablo profit is profit :ok
Well done mate. I think I should just start following other peoples selections and lay my own. :lol
Cheers Monterosso, 1 more winner and i would have been on the multiple leaderboard ! Your form will come back, we all go through it :tongue2
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Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book 3.25 Doncaster Prince Du Buery, not sure how much money this one owes me over the years and also many others no doubt. However i thought this would go in last week when pulled out of a race last friday. So, pleased to see Henderson having a go at this favourite from Pitt's yard. Pitts horse gon up 12lb for latest win and PDB running off 109 must go close to finally winning a race especially with the yard in great form at present. 11/4 Bet365 5pts win

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Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book Last bet wasnt in the 1st 3 so that horse continues winless! Saturday 12.50 Kempton Chablais, Won point to point in Ireland last year, always an interesting recruit from Hendersons yard if he come here where he has a great record. 2/1 1.20 Kempton Skint, back over 2m today, should go well based on its previous form. Well fancied by Henderson team. 4/1 2.10 Warwick Alfie Spinner, a couple of wins last term and an interesting step up in trip today, got some info on this one today so sticking this in my multiple. 6/1 2.25 Kempton Khyber Kim, this is one of my fancies for th Champion Hurdle and always proven best when fresh, i expect the horse is chomping at the bit to get on the race course, i wouldnt be on Binocular until March and i think the danger is Nicholls' Escort M'en 5/2 0.5pt win Lucky 15, 0.5pts ew accy 10pts win single on Skint 4/1 Bet365 may have some more singles as the day goes on. also from my trends thread, I have decided personally just to back Riverside Theatre, which i will put up when i do the bet.

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Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book

Proved a good decision ...
Thanks Steve, ended up with 3 seconds from my singles at 4/1, 6/1 and 14/1 ! Khyber kim cost me the EW accy as well Lucky 15 and accy = 8.5pts staked - 2.5pts returned 2 win singles = 15pts staked - 0pts returned 1 ew single = 4pts staked = 9pts returned did have a winner in Ireland in 3.45 but didnt get to post up, that brought me back to nearly levels today
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Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book Ascot today it looks set up today for Henderson to rattle off a few more winners today but the bookies have finally caught on by shortening these up today. 12.40 Looks like Osric - no bet 1.15 Would be against the odds on favourite giving 10lbs to a nicholls newcomer from France Plenty Pocket. NIcholls says on Betfair today that the horse is owned 50/50 by the Betfair Timeform club and Clive Smith. He knows that Sam Winner thrashed Grandouet by 15L and i will happily take the 3/1 offered by >Bet365 1.50 I backed Caroles Legacy over fences at Cheltenham last time out and the horse ran really well to finiosh 2nd in a competitive race. Reverting to Hurdles today. 150 rated, should take account of this field. 6/4 >Bet365 2.25 Master Minded should take this. Betting without the favourite is the market to be in, and i realy fancy Mad Max now after a good look at the form. Its flat track form reads 1-1-1-1-1-3 and Ascot wil again suit the horse (i wouldnt touch this horse at Cheltenham for example!). 5/1 >Hills still got the last 3 races to check out, but lets have a 1pt win patent on the above 3.

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Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book -7pts last saturday, a couple of bets were not posted as i was otherwise engaged, therefore wont count Today, firstly a multiple with Bet365 3.05 Musselburgh SONARA 4/1 Raised only 5lb for catterick win, has the ability to go in again off this current mark. 2.45 Hunt SALPIERRE 3/1 Seeking a four timer today, there seems to be no stopping this horse and Mccoy in the saddle again, worthy favourite, up in trip again but well placed to date by the trainer although this is te hardest race on the card 3.15 Hunt MASTER OF THE HALL 11/8 Drifted in the market at Cheltenham but ran well enough for me to keep this one on side. Stepped up to 3m today, trainer in form, should go close in this small field 3.45 Hunt TALENTI SP Comes out top o time test figures which i am starting to follow again. 4.25 Ling CHARLIE SMIRKE 7/2 Only 2 wins from 27 on the level, both sucesses here over this distance, shopuld go close if repeating recent 2nd place I have had a lucky 31 to win This is a 0.2pt win lucky 31 plus a 1pt win accy. 7.2pts staked. The 2 bets bets for me today are 3.15 Hunt MASTER OF THE HALL 11/8 2.35 Muss RED MERLIN 11/8 Saw them both run LTO and both looked future winners 5pts win double today

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