Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book

[bowles10]

Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book

Newbury 12.50 Penny Max was fancied last time out at Plumpton but that is a specialist track and perhaps the plan was wrong as it didnt make up the ground required to finish any higher than 3rd place. RAn well here over hurdles and should get the 3m trip. Trainer ben in decent form and this should be a fair price also. Loves it soft which it will get tomorrow on this long run in. 0.5pts win 5/1 B365

nice winner:ok:ok 0.5pts staked 3pts returned

[bowles10]

Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book Ascot today 12.45 Fighting flynn 8/1 Should relish the ground conditions here and has had a run which may just be enough to get past the short Nicky Henderson favourite which hasnt been seen this season yet. Nichols has the NR so hoping Hobbs horse should be thereabouts 2.30 Pacha Du Polder 10/3 Unexposed horse and i like Nicholls horses that are off a low weight as there is normally more to come. Only won a 2 runner race at Sandowen but the 2nd Eradicate has followed up since. 3.05 Lightning Strike 14/1 This is a bold shout but Venetia always seems to have this horse ready for certain races and will love the softer ground. if its fit, could sneak a place or better 0.05pts ew patent = 0.7pts staked

[bowles10]

Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book 3.35 Ascot Saturday Ladbroke Hurdle Typically competitive handicap hurdle you would expect at this track on a Saturday card. i have been searching through for soft ground performers as the ground will only get worse after more rain tonight in the area. I think the ground could be the undoing of Nicholls favourite Prospect wells albeit kept in at the weights by the top weight whom i dont think will run on gorund this soft. My pick is ACT OF KALANISI who won at the track earlier this year over a longer distance. A reasonable flat horse who had marks in the 80's comes here off a mark of 127 when you take into account the jockey claim of 7lb. This is 2lb higher than when David Bass won on this horse with a 5lb claim over 2m 3f here in Feb. Ran in the elite hurdle at Wincanton behind Celestial Halo on reappearance and possibly may be suited by further however this will feel like further on the rain soddened ground tomorrow. Trainer is doing ok this season also and so is the claimer on board. All in all, it ticked all the boxes for me. Bet 0.5pts win Act of kalanisi 14/1 Bet365

[bowles10]

Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book 12.55 Ascot Searching through this race trying to find something and i noticed a big priced horse that has a squeak MINELLA BLISS, from an unfashionable stable but has a decent claimer on board in Peter Hatton 7lb. Runs off 103 here after taking off the 7lb, and did win in this class in the summer with the same jockey albeit off an adjusted 97, that was over 3m 2f so i have no fears about the horse gettinhg home. Ignore last 2 runs off much higher marks but overly disgraced, this one could have a chance here. Bred by Old Vic so soft ground is certainly not going to be a problem. 50/1 with Bet365 0.25pts ew

[bowles10]

Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book 1.25 Ascot Just had a thrwoaway bet on Moon over miami in this, always felt it needed soft ground to show its worth and 33/1 with Bet365 was too big for me. 10yo now but if jumping holds up could be thereabouts 0.2pts win 33/1 Moon over miami

[bowles10]

Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book

3.35 Ascot Saturday Ladbroke Hurdle Typically competitive handicap hurdle you would expect at this track on a Saturday card. i have been searching through for soft ground performers as the ground will only get worse after more rain tonight in the area. I think the ground could be the undoing of Nicholls favourite Prospect wells albeit kept in at the weights by the top weight whom i dont think will run on gorund this soft. My pick is ACT OF KALANISI who won at the track earlier this year over a longer distance. A reasonable flat horse who had marks in the 80's comes here off a mark of 127 when you take into account the jockey claim of 7lb. This is 2lb higher than when David Bass won on this horse with a 5lb claim over 2m 3f here in Feb. Ran in the elite hurdle at Wincanton behind Celestial Halo on reappearance and possibly may be suited by further however this will feel like further on the rain soddened ground tomorrow. Trainer is doing ok this season also and so is the claimer on board. All in all, it ticked all the boxes for me. Bet 0.5pts win Act of kalanisi 14/1 Bet365

gone in again on this one just got 16's 0.25pts ew added in case it makes the 1-2-3

[bowles10]

Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book Friday staked 0.7pts returned 0.13pts Saturday staked 1.7pts returned 0pts Moon over miami ran ok for 3rd place but didnt have it ew Not sure about betting during the week so may be back now for the Boxing day meetings.

[bowles10]

Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book December running total +2.63pts

[bowles10]

Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book I'm off to watch Woking v Farnborough local derby today so will be watching these back on tape later today, good luck everyone King George - Kempton 3.10 Here are some trends i have dug up about this famous race Last 13 runnings Age 6yo (3), 7yo (5), 8yo (1), 9yo (4), 11yo (1) Previous runs that season 1-3 13/13 LTO winners 11/13 LTO won or placed 13/13 Course & distance winners 5/13 Course winners 6/13 Previous course attempts 9/13 Distance winners 10/13 career runs 8-22 10/13 Career wins 5-12 10/13 Career wins 5+ 12/13 % of wins to runs 40%+ 13/13 Had to have a look at this famous race, and have bolded the 100% stats above to narrow down the field Remove Captain Chris, Diamond HArry, Nacarat, Somersby, Golan Way This leaves last years winner Long run, 4 time winner Kauto star, Master minded so a 3 runner race for me. Lack of course experience may account for Master Minded however on RH tracks in this country, its record is 1-1-1-1-1-1 so could you ignore that. Kauto's age may just prove too much after its >Betfair win and Nicholls reluctance to confirm it as a runner until recently worries me also Long Run blew me away last year when taking this race and the Gold cup. I felt it wouldnt be beaten this year but didnt take on KStar turning in an improvement at 11yo at Haydock in the Betfair. i didnt think LR got high enoughover its fences that day and must show an improved level of jumping today. Todays race looks harder than last years with MM in the race and the exciting Captain Chris whose day will come elsewhere. Selections LONG RUN win 11/8 >Hills MASTER MINDED win 7/1 >Hills Also at Kempton, 12.50 Plenty Pocket looks tasty at the price to land this race. Ran in a hot race at Haydock last time out in sticky conditions behind smart hurdler Molotof. Will prefer going RHanded i think and can start the day off well for the Nicholls team. 2.00 Grand Crus could have a special career with even a tilt at the Gold cup a possible this season. Realistically though it should be aimed at the RSA in MArch but it was a close toss up with Bobs Worth today who is also going to be a decent prospect over fences. Grand Crus has already beaten Cue Card over fences and its the hurdles rating that pushes this horse into a different sphere, only Big Bucks got past it last season on 2 occasions they faced each other. Bobs Worth has more to prove and this will be a good yardstick as to its ability Bets Master Minded 0.5pts win 7/1 Hills 0.2pts win doubles from Master Minded, Long Run, Plenty Pocket and Grand Crus 0.25pts win trebles from the same 3 2pts total stake

[bowles10]

Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book -2pts yesterday with Grand Cus winning, Long Run 2nd and the other 2 running poorly Onto today Firstly, Shortlist below Welsh National from my trends page 2.10 Chepstow hey big spender 11-12 31 days © OR156 carruthers 11-8 31 days © OR 152 Cappa bleu 11-3 38 days OR 147 Galaxy rock 11-2 45 days OR146 Giles Cross 10-6 44 days © OR136 Any currency 10-3 24 days OR133 Cannington brook 10-2 10 days OR 128 Hey Big Spender - will be ok on the ground, 6lb higher than best win Carruthers - ground ok, 3lb higher than best win Cappa Bleu - unknown on ground this soft under rules and 7lb higher than best win, never raced at the track Galaxy rock - has won on heavy, 11lb higher than best win Giles Cross - will love the ground, 1lb higher than best win, 4lb higher than when 2nd here last year, form at Chepstow reads 1-2-1-2-f-2 Any currency - 6lb higher thna best win, not won on heavy but finished 2nd a few times on soft, Cannington Brook - will love the ground, goes up 4lb after recent win, Final Bets Giles Cross 0.5pts win 13/2 Stan James Cannington Brook 0.5pts win 16/1 >Bet365 more to come on the rest of the cards....

[bowles10]

Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book decided was going to follow McCain today but settled on the following 6 horses across the cards 12.55 K Kie 3.45 K Lifestyle 2.20 W Sa Suffit 3.15 C Nutin Fancy 2.45 C Hollow tree 1.30 C Glenwood knight win doubles , trebles, 4 folds ew 5 folds, ew accy 1.2pts staked altogether on the above

[bowles10]

Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book Giles cross 2nd and Canington Brook 5th in thre Welsh National 2 winners in the multiple returned 0.54pts 2.2pts staked 0.54pts returned annoyingly now in a deficit for the month -1.03pts for the month

[bowles10]

Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book Had a look at Leopardstown today and normally follow Ruby Walsh Trying to make a case for Noland in the lexus chase but Rubi light and Quito should finish in front today, however Nicholls is feared out here and will be after some prize money 2.35 Noland 1.25 Allle Garde - progresive chaser, mullins / walsh partnership 2.00 Mourad - should be between this one and Voler again today, the slightly faster ground may suit Mourad today to get the better of his rival 0.05pts ew patent

[bowles10]

Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book 2nd & 3rd yesterday at 5/4 and 4/1 prices taken gives a return of 0.3pts 0.7pts staked 0.3pts returned

[bowles10]

Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book 2.55 Taunton Looked at this race and thought that Balerina and Drumshambo could give the favourite something to do but i kept looking at Henderson's record this week and also the fact that Laudatory did win off a 2lb higher mark last season. 9/2 seems pretty generous to be honest in what looks like a race with 4 or 5 in with a shout. 0.5pts win Laudatory 9/2 Hills

[bowles10]

Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book very quickly as rushing out to the Emirates for total football today ! one race 3.40 Both of Tim Vaughan's horses both like the ground and trainer in reasonable form this week Rigidity 0.5pts 8/1 Ruler of all 0.25pts 20/1 both with Hils

[bowles10]

Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book Cheltenham 2.10 (2m 5f) AGE:A range of ages has won the race, 6, 7, 8(x3), 9(x3), 10(x3) & 11. KEY AGE RANGE: 8 to 10 - 9/12 WEIGHT: I have looked at 2 weight ranges for this race. 11st & under - 7/12 11st 4lb & under - 9/12 PRICE: 10/1 or under - 11/12 COURSE: Previous Cheltenham form - 11/12 Previous course winner - 5/12 OTHER STATS: Horses ran within 35 days of the race - 10/12 Debuts - 0/12 Favs - 2/12 2-4 runs this season - 11/12 Won this season - 7/12 4th or better this season - 11/12 Previous Cheltenham form is key to this track, remove Hectors choice, Renard, Pickamus Stick with those horses that have ran 2-4 times this season and 4^th or better on one of those runs Removes Hells bay, Calgary bay, Cape tribulation, Matuhi, Haventgotascoobydoo The key age range is between 8 and 10, so removes Hidden Keel, Duke of Lucca This leaves The Nightingale, Ghizao, Crescent island, Michael flips The Nightingale is a Grade performer and has to shoulder the top weight, i believe Nicholls has never understood this horses best distance as originally, if things had gone well, this one could have been one of his stars. Has already been placed in a Grade 1 this season in Ieland and should be respected Ghizao is a quandry as i am just not sure it gets the trip to be honest and although has Ruby Walsh on board, this 2m 5f is a specialist distance. Crescent island hasnt won for some time and maybe this mark is just too high as i think its about a 140 performer until it shows something. MIchael Flips is interesting off such a lighweight as its a decent dual performer over hurdles and fences however the jockey is unproven in such a big race and i wont be taing the chance. My bet will be The Nightingale to do whast Celestial Halo did yesterday ay Newbury The Nightingale 0.5pts win 14/1 >Hills

[bowles10]

Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book 1.35 Cheltenham If THE SAWYER can produce a decent round of jumping under regular pilot Nathan Sweeney, i rate it in with a decent shout. I am always after horses with Cheltenham form and as a Course winner, it should be therabouts 0.5pts win 10/1 Hills

[bowles10]

Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book will update December figures but resulted in a loss this month Todays bets The Sawyer ran a game race to finish 3rd @ 12/1 The Nightingale fell after a couple of errors, still never know about this horse,i felt it was a decent value bet today considering its Grade form against some of the handicappers, Cheltenham form again won the day with CAlgary bay winning at last. I have a feeling it was in the trends selection last year in this race but overlooked on the 4th or better this season as both starts to date were 5th & 8th -1pt

[bowles10]

Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book December bets Gibb river 10/1 3rd - 0.5pts win return 0 TaraBlaze 8/1 unpl - 0.5pts win return 0 Patent ew 0.7pts return 0.18pts Chief DAn George 12/1 0.5pts win return 0 Quantativeeasing 8/1 1st 0.5pts win return 4.5pts Divers 8/1 Fell 0.5pts win return 0 Yankee 0.55pts staked return 1.67pts Double 1st/2nd 0.5pts win return 0 Sahrati 16/1 0.1pts ew return 0 Penny Max 5/1 1st 0.5pts win 3pts return Patent ew 0.7pts return 0.13pts Act of kalanisi 14/1 0.5pts win return 0 Act of kalanisi 16/1 0.25pts ew return 0 Minella Bliss 50/1 0.25pts ew return 0 Moon over Miami 33/1 3rd 0.2pts win return 0 Master Minded 7/1 0.5pts return 0 Doubles etc 1.5pts win return 0 Giles Cross 13/2 2nd 0.5pts win return 0 Cannington Brook 16/1 5th 0.5pts win return 0 Multiple 1.2pts staked return 0.54pts Patent ew 0.7pts return 0.3pts LAudatory Fell 0.5pts win return 0 Rigidity 8/1 0.5pts win return 0 Ruler of all 20/1 0.5pts win return 0 staked 13.75pts returns 10.32pts P/L -3.43pts Yield -24.94% bit of a struggle the last 2 weeks or so after a promising start to the month, only 2 winners from 17 singles but a 33/1 3rd, 13/2 2nd and 10/1 3rd which all would of put the month into profit Hope that January brings in some profit

[bowles10]

Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book 2.05 Sandown At last, Henderson puts Daves Dream back on a flat course rather than the Cheltenhma undulations. This horse could have a few more decent races at the minimum trip if left on a flat course. Its record speaks for itself with finishing positions of 4311011 on a flat course. David Bass is an excellent jockey and takes off a handy 3lb although this leaves the horse on OR144. Its record over 2m is 11111U which cannot be ignored. Has to overcome a 7lb higher weight than best win but those other figures mean i have to get a bet on at these generous odds Bet 0.5pts win 8/1 >Bet365

[bowles10]

Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book Been rushing about al day so here is the bet to cover a number of angles today. Had some decent words on some of these plus my own fancy Daves Dream to go in. Experimenting a bit with trebles & a 5 fold every saturday now as part of my bet. 1.35 Sandown SOLIWHERY - French import and Henderson just firing out winners all over the place, has to be in wit a shout especially with Kings newcomer Fire Fighter a bit of an unknown albeit decent flat form. 7/4 2.05 Sandown DAVES DREAM - reasoning in previous post 10/1 2.35 Sandown CAPTAIN CONAN - had a shout for this last week but it didnt run. Pitched in at the deep end, my trends say it cant win but the word is strong from the stable and an excellent price. Wil make a chaser no doubt. Doing some great work at home 9/2 3.10 Sandown HOLD ON JULIO - CD winner lTO can improve again, jumps very well and is very consistent. King broke the sandown oodoo a few years back and now has a decent record with chasers since then 3/1 2.50 Wincanton ROUGHAM - good 2nd LTO and should get the run of the race here, Pasco may be too high in the weghts andConsigliere will no doubt be outpaced and stay on. Decent price in a small field for one of Hobbs 13/2 Bet 10 x 0.05pts win trebles 1 x 0.05pts ew 5 fold Total stake 0.6pts

[bowles10]

Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book Saturday TOLWORTH HURDLE AT SANDOWN 2.35 This is Grade 1 race for up & coming hurdlers won by many a decent horse. 12/13 ran previously in the month before the race of which 11 out of 13 finished 1st in that race (the other 2 finishing 2nd and in 2007 ran in Nov) 3 of the last 7 winners of the race won a grade 2 race prior to the Tolworth. 2 out of the 13 years, winner had ran more than 10 times previous. 8 of the 13 years, winner had ran 4 times or less. 5 out of last 9 have been 5yo's, the last 3 were 6yo's Looking at the small field: Captain Conan 5yo, ran 198 days ago - 3 runs, never raced in the uk, 1st LTO Colour squadron - 6yo, ran 24 days ago, 3 runs, 1st LTO High storm - 5yo, ran 29 days ago, 7 runs, 2nd LTO Magnifique etoile - 5yo, ran 24 days ago, 6 runs, 1st LTO Prospect wells - 7yo, ran 21 days ago, 4 runs, 4th LTO will leave out Hendersons horse as just doesnt meet the trends being an import from France. May be an interesting chaser to come? Will also leave out High Storm as 2nd LTO and looks to be making up the numbers NO graded winners in the field Potential fav is Nicholls horse but being an ex flat horse and now aged 7 with a 4th LTO rules it out for me Will take a chance on Hobbs horse bred by Old Vic will be happy if the ground cuts up also Bet COLOUR SQUADRON 0.75pts win 2/1 >Hills (GP) Price taken last night on my trends thread

[bowles10]

Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book FFS dont know where to start today was undecided on Captain Conan as my trends were really pointing to colour squadron, then it drifts from 9/2 to 9/1 and that makes up mind up for not having a single on it, Clour squadron loses the race by a shd rather than CC winning it:wall as it drifts towards the stands losing a few lengths on the eventual winner annoyed as it was a strong word and how good will this horse be after that UK debut Then, looking back at the trebles bet i had, Soliwhery getting done a short head costs me a treble of 7/4, 9/1 & 3/1:@ -1.85pts on the day

[RussP]

Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book Rob, I totally confused. Why did you take 2 horses in a 5 runner race in separate bets? Surely if you're torn, you just shouldn't have backed either? Also, you say trends pointed towards CC but in your trends post, you said it didn't? I'm just a little confused....if it's a trends horse, you should back it, shouldn't you? Sorry mate, but just interested as to your thoughts & unlucky with the treble.

[BillyHills]

Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book Not sure but I think Rob meant to say in the above post;

was undecided on Captain Conan as my trends were really pointing to Colour Squadron

Cant explain the first point, just following Henderson I think??

[bowles10]

Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book

Rob, I totally confused. Why did you take 2 horses in a 5 runner race in separate bets? Surely if you're torn, you just shouldn't have backed either? Also, you say trends pointed towards CC but in your trends post, you said it didn't? I'm just a little confused....if it's a trends horse, you should back it, shouldn't you? Sorry mate, but just interested as to your thoughts & unlucky with the treble.

sorry Russ, the trends were pointing towards Colour squadron, ive edited now, sorry i mis typed ! Must have been when Helguson scored that equaliser at MK today!:ok So i had to back the trends horse. I also decided to have the trebles bet and that gave me the chance to include Captain conan for the race. I had no idea it would return 9's, i was expecting 4's or 5s to be honest. Captain Conan was a tip from my dad's contact, that was all and in hindsight i am disappointed i hadnt followed it with a single as often happens the tip wins and the others dont. Lesson learned hopefully

[bowles10]

Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book Back to Saturday racing been busy all week so no bets until today Kempton, i find is a track where its difficult to come form off the pace. There doesnt seem to be much weight advantage on track and decent horses often prevail at the track. Looked at a few prices of the winners here over jumps and not many 10/1 + shots go in. Henderson is the top trainer and Geraghty top jock with over 30% SR. 1.40 Kempton HIT THE HEADLINES, i thought this would be the favourite over Lavelle's horse, but maybe the 6lb allowance has tipped the balance in Captain Sunshines favour. I will stick with Hendersons horse which won well lTO at Huntingdon. 15/8 PP 2.50 Kempton, ACT OF KALANISI, i was hot on this one LTO at Ascot where it ran ok but may be suited by this longer distance. I will comment on the race futher in te thread but Geraghty up top also is another plus for this one. Meets most of the trends for me albeit only 4 renewals of this race since they changed the distance. Should keep it front rank and be there at the end with every chance. 15/2 PP 1.25 Warwick, ALFIE SPINNER to outjump and outstay Frascati PArk who hasnt raced over this far and is there for the taking i think. My selection is a stayer and will appreciate the trip more than the others 3/1 PP 2.30 Warwick, VOLADOR was decent 2 years or so back and this would be a great traning performance to have the horse spot on today. Worth an interest in a very open race to be honest. 20/1 PP 3.05 Warwick, COTTON MILL is a far better price than te favourite and represents the value here for Trainer Ferguson who boasts stats of 6 winners from 13 races in the last 14 days 7/2 PP trebles bet again this week , 0.025pts EW trebles, 0.05pt EW accy = 0.6pts staked Back with the Lanzarote hurdle later

[bowles10]

Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book A race i have unhappy memories of having taken our unbeaten hurdler to the race 6 years ago only to hear Dickie Johnson tell us he wasnt ging to bother with it and leave it out the back, it started a weak favourite on that day and the race done him more harm than good 2.50 Kempton, ACT OF KALANISI, i was hot on this one LTO at Ascot where it ran ok but may be suited by this longer distance. Geraghty up top also is another plus for this one. Meets most of the trends for me albeit only 4 renewals of this race since they changed the distance. Should keep it front rank and be there at the end with every chance. I also like 3 others in the race Radjhani Express from the Waley Cohens boast some form in France and hasnt raced too badly on previous 2 starts in handicap hurdles, Ohio Gold from a trainer and Jockey in form, needs to improve but the right trendfs for this one also, El Dancer discussed this one with dad this morning, take the Aintree form from 2 years ago and this one would be amongst the favourites Bets Act of Kalanisi 0.45pts 15/2 El Dancer 0.1pt 22/1 Radjhani Express 0.25pts 20/1 Ohio Gold 0.2pts 9/1 1pt staked with Pady power who have a money back if 2nd to well regarded or decoy

[bowles10]

Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book 4 places in the multiple at 5/2, 7/2, 11/1 and 11/2 (winner) means a return of 1.05pts for that bet Only 1 3rd place in the Lanzarote Staked 1.6pts returned 1.05pts