Fintron's Jumps Thread - 2010/11

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases I take that back, just had a look at the Badger Ales and want to have a blast at that. 3.25 Wincanton This looks a really competitive chase as you would expect and last years winner Cornish Sett is turned out by Paul Nicholls. He is a strong stayer but is 7 lb higher than when winning last year and I think others are open to more improvement. Nicholls' other runner, The Tother One heads the betting and although he won on his chase debut in a novices event he failed to complete last time out at Newbury and for now I think he is best watched even if the trainer will have likely improved his jumping. Of more interest I feel I Carruthers, who won a Grade 2 chase at Ascot last term and ran credibly in the RSA in March when fourth, stepped up in Grade to mix it up with the best of them. He ran a cracker from the front before a jumping error close home saw him surrender several places at the finish and although I think he is probably up to defying a mark of 149 in handicap company, the prospect of an easy lead is far from certain. Irish National winner Niche Market has been put up 9 lbs from that win but hasn't been seen since, whilst Nenuphar Colllonges is another classy sort that has fitness to prove so is opposed for that reason. The Package is yet to win over fences but placed in a Newbury Grade 3 last season and is open to more improvement, but I think others look better bets tomorrow. Bowleaze ran well when second at this track last time out and runs off the same mark again. However, this looks a tougher race to tackle and it is the less exposed trio of Valley Ride, Kilcrea Asla and Beat The Boys That Appeal more. Valley Ride won wearing first time cheekpieces at Market Rasen last time out on his debut for Peter Bowen and if they have the same effect here it would be no surprise to see him defy a 9 lb rise. Kilcrea Asla failed to live up to expectations in the Midlands National and returned to action over hurdles when last seen. His jumping will need to have improved though to figure here and I think Beat The Boys is a more likely winner. He too has been hindered by jumping errors in the past and he failed to complete either the Welsh National, Midlands National or Blue Square Gold Cup last season. However, he must have worked well at home as he was an impressive winner at Chepstow last time out, slamming the field by fourteen lengths and staying on well to score under Paddy Brennan. With the yard in good form he may well be able to defy a 13 lb rise in the handicap as he was placed at Cheltenham off this mark previously during the Open Meeting, when outstayed by Joe Lively and Halcon Genelardais but tiring close home. He seems to have improved since then and could register a new career best. Beat The Boys 11/1 Paddypower, 0.55 pt win/0.3 pt place Kilcrea Asla 20/1 Paddy, 0.05 pt saver Valley Ride 11/1 Bet 365, 0.1 pt win

[Treviticus]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases

On a dodgy run at the moment which I don't really mind cos hopefully I get it out of the way before starting for real again next week. For tomorrow this is what I came up with (Bold ones are the most likely) anyway: 15:20 Sandown: Nagam, Presentandcorrect, Runshan, River Indus 15:25 Wincanton: Cornish Sett, Beat the Boys, Valley Ride, Preacher Boy, Bowleaze 15:35 Kelso: Simply Smashing Will be restricted to a small e/w treble on Runshan, Bowleaze, Simply Smashing. Good luck on whatever you go for lads.

Typical - Two out of three. More typically, I stuck on another e/w treb with Nagam, Cornish Sett and Sierra Victor. Obviously Sierra Victor got into the places in the last.

[Treviticus]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases 13:30 Hereford: Lough Rynn 15:25 M Rasen: Teamgeist or Shrewd Investor

[diamond1924]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases had a look at the three today, I'm going for Paddy Pub (3rd in Munster National last month) in the 310 Limerick, Shrewd Investor 325 MR, and in the 130 Hereford I'm going e/w on Constantius. This one has won fresh before and has distance form from only 3lbs lower in ratings. At 20/1 I'd rather have a small e/w shot to nothing than risk a bet on this one than any of the others who all have big ?marks.

[diamond1924]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases

had a look at the three today' date=' I'm going for [b']Paddy Pub (3rd in Munster National last month) in the 310 Limerick, Shrewd Investor 325 MR, and in the 130 Hereford I'm going e/w on Constantius. This one has won fresh before and has distance form from only 3lbs lower in ratings. At 20/1 I'd rather have a small e/w shot to nothing than risk a bet on this one than any of the others who all have big ?marks.

sorry, was reading the early tissue, Constantius is 6/1 on b365.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases good luck lads 3.10 Limerick Paddy Pub ranks as a massive danger but I feel it too short to touch at 6/4 so will side with the unexposed Away We Go. He is a course winner over hurdles, handles slow ground, and was off the mark on his chase debut when last seen. 10/1 Bet 365, 0.5 pt EW.

[Treviticus]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases I try and avoid Irish racing but at a push I'd chance Harbour View in that 3:10.

[Treviticus]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases 15:30 Carlisle - Nelliedonethat for me.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases

I try and avoid Irish racing but at a push I'd chance Harbour View in that 3:10.

I like the Irish racing Trev, just looking back quickly over the results Ooh Cha Cha, Dulgotdi Bob and Treacle have won and Rare Bob, although an initial loser in here, won at Punchestown at their festival, and I was on, having picked him up from one of these chases. Well done Diamond today with two seconds and a winner.:clap Personally I was really happy with Away We Go, I think he is a cert to win a handicap on that showing and was simply unlucky to bump into a well handicapped rival in Paddy Pub. Although I felt Paddy Pub was too short to back outright today, the place on the second each-way effectively returned evens, so not too much of a difference to the 6/4 PP was when placing my bet and I did actually have them both in a reverse forecast which paid out at £25.40 which I was pleasantly surprised about. I'm undecided on Carlisle tomorrow, Nelliedonethat and Guttinguybutonlyjust are names that ring a bell, will have to wait for the prices to come out in the morning I think.

[diamond1924]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases thanks Wayne, I felt a bit unlucky with the first, the winner was unproven at the distance and my theory that Constantius was well handicapped and good fresh proved solid enough. You said it all with Paddy Pub, and my third of the treble, Shrewd Investor looks an honest enough plodder who's a good e/w shout at the odds but don't think he can progress further enough to be a winner at this mark of 114 which he ran off today. I played a small e/w treble on the three, it returned just under 4/1, though 3 wins would have been the equivalent of a right good week's wages. Just had a look at Carlisle and came to the same conclusion!

[Treviticus]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases Nice work yesterday lads! On a bogey streak myself - Rojabaa is my totally unconfident choice for the 13:30 at Lingfield tomorrow.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases Cheers Trev I've had a look at Lingfield but nothing stands out so I have decided to start thinking about the Grand National. These aren't bets that have been struck, merely a shortlist of horses for me to chase up, looking for trainer quotes regarding race plans, weight up current ratings, and generally try keep tabs of market moves and current season form before now and Aintree, to try cut down on work nearer to the race and hopefully get on some at juicy ante-post prices. I have simply gone down the list on Betfair and quickly plucked off names that appear to meet most of the trends I posted for this years race (one of the first few pages of the thread). Aintree long-list Arbor Supreme (W Mullins) - experienced chaser but still open to possible further improvement. Winner at Fairyhouse off 125, credible place of 139 when last seen. Pulled up in Irish National in April. 3-14 over fences, won up to 30f, won chases worth £19k and £23k. On 9/11/09 33/1 SJ, 55.0 on Betfair. A Snippet on the Irish Racing website on 17/11/09 reads "his jumping is improving as he matures, he is an out and out stayer and the plan is to aim him at the Grand National." Market Update, 33/1 SJ, 48.0 Betfair. Black Apalachi (D Hughes) - was travelling really well in 2009 renewal before unseating rider but fell in 2008 renewal. Was second to Arbor Supreme in Punchestown chase last April, has won up to 26f and won chases worth £67k and £77k. On 10/11/09, 25/1 Bet 365, 30.0 on Betfair. Character Building (J Quinn) - Kim Muir winner that pulled out of 2009 National. Has won 3-11 chases, two of which have been over 26f. Has some good placed form too behind the likes of Denman and Mom Mome. £36k biggest win, PU in Scottish National other year. On 9/11/09 33/1 Lads, 38.0 on Betfair. Comply or Die (D Pipe) - could be burdened with too high a weight depending on whether Denman lines up or not but 2008 winner and placed in second last year so proven to stay. On 10/11/09 25/1 Bet 365, 36.0 on Betfair. Garde Champetre (E Bolger) - vastly experienced chaser that constantly proven stamina in cross country races at Cheltenham. Has won 7-18 chases up to 34f, has won chases worth £31k. PU in Irish National. On 9/11/09, 33/1 SJ, 100.0 on Betfair. Gone to Lunch (J Scott) - second in Scottish National and decent second to Rare Bob in Punchestown Grade 1 novice chase last season. 3-10 over fences, has won up to 26f, has won two chases worth £19k. On 9/11/09 40/1 Bet 365, 70.0 on Betfair. Hello Bud (N Twiston-Davies) - Scottish National winner, has stamina in abundance and has recorded wins over 31f, 32f and 33f, the most valuable £114k. On 9/11/09 40/1 Bet 365, 60.0 on Betfair. Irish Raptor (N Twiston-Davies) - experienced chaser, fifth in Midlands National in 2008, won £68k Aintree chase in April, 5-27 over fences, 10th in Kim Muir this season, proven up to 27f, won off 133. On 9/11/09, 40/1 Hills, 46.0 on Betfair. My Will (P Nicholls) - Placed in last years race so stamina assured and regular in valuable staying chases. Prize has eluded stable but horse an experienced sort, won up to 28f and a chase worth £34k. On 10/11/09, 33/1 Lads, 40.0 on Betfair. Niche Market (B Buckler) - irish National winner and only 9 lb higher for last chase win. 2-14 over fences, won up to 29f and won chase worth £136k. On 10/11/09 33/1 SJ, 42.0 on Betfair. Parson's Legacy (P Hobbs) - has won a £39k chase and has won up yto 26f as well as placing in Scottish National in 2007. Was short of racing last term but ended up going to Aintree before falling. Has already had one race this season though so may be fitter come April. On 9/11/09 40/1 on Bet 365, 130.0 on Betfair. Possol (H Daly) - lacks experience of contesting a national but won 4-15 over fences, up to 24f and open to improvement over further trips. Second in Racing Post Chase at Kempton and thrashed field in Perth chase, latest. On 10/11/09 33/1 Sky, 55.0 on Betfair. Rambling Minster (K Reverley) - PU in last years National having been well supported after landing £65k chase at Haydock. 5-16 over fences, is proven up to 32f. PU in Scottish National in '07. On 9/11/09 40/1 Bet 365, 170.0 on Betfair. State of Play (E Williams) - fourth in last years national which goes against some trends but that was first time raced over marathon trip. Previously proven up to 27f, had won £85k Newbury prize and 5-14 over fences. On 10/11/09 25/1 Bet 365, 32.0 on betfair. Reasons for ommitting some from list (may change over season due to runners gaining more experience, breaking trends etc) Backstage - inexperienced (3-8 over fences, 10/11/09) Big Fella Thanks - inexperienced (Chase form: 1-7, 10/11/09) Companero - inexperienced (chase form: 2-4, 10/11/09) Denman - rating of 180+ would give whopping weight to lump around (10/11/09) Killyglen - inexperienced (Chase form 3-5, 10/11/09) Mon Mome - won last year but may be handicapped out of a follow up bid? Won off 148 last year, not sure on new rating as of yet. 10/11/09. Nine de Sivola - still a maiden over fences after 18 starts. 10/11/09. Notre Pere - another possibly could be over-weighted. Welsh National ('08) winner, rated 167 lto. 10/11/09. Northern Alliance - Kerry national winner but still inexperienced (3-7) 10/11/09 Shining Gale - pulled out of Paddypower, inexperienced (3-7) 10/11/09 The last Derby -Inexperienced 2-4, 10/11/09 Tricky Trickster - inexperienced (Chase form: 2-4, 10/11/09) ...that will do for now, I will refer back to this post and edit in future, although I will keep all bets that are struck in seperate (non-edited) posts.

[Treviticus]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases No sign of Hot Weld in your list Fin - Having been well unimpressed when it didn't go in April I'll be interested to see what Murphy gets out of it next year. Closer to home: 14:10 Bangor - Mistress Nell or Cannon Fire 15:20 Warwick - Overton Lad or Strolling Vagabond

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases I've still got a lot of sifting to do Trev, those above were those most prominent in the ante-post market so I simply went down and divided them up into maybes and not-just-yets. My gut feeling at the minute is Arbor Supreme, I have a lot of respect for the Irish runners and like Dessie Hughes a lot in particular so tempted on Black Appalachi again. I was on Black Appalachi last year and cant decide at the minute whether he is worth another go, or may be too high in the ratings. My Will could be one that never gets any bigger than his current price bearing in mind his trainer, but like I say, I need to chase things up and become more certain on running plans, likely handicap marks come April etc before parting with any hard earned. btw, good job I left the chases alone today, I would have been on Zimbabwe (third) at Warwick as have backed many times and think he is so well handicapped he must go in at some point granted a good stamina test and soft ground.

[Treviticus]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases

I've still got a lot of sifting to do Trev, those above were those most prominent in the ante-post market so I simply went down and divided them up into maybes and not-just-yets. My gut feeling at the minute is Arbor Supreme, I have a lot of respect for the Irish runners and like Dessie Hughes a lot in particular so tempted on Black Appalachi again. I was on Black Appalachi last year and cant decide at the minute whether he is worth another go, or may be too high in the ratings. My Will could be one that never gets any bigger than his current price bearing in mind his trainer, but like I say, I need to chase things up and become more certain on running plans, likely handicap marks come April etc before parting with any hard earned. btw, good job I left the chases alone today, I would have been on Zimbabwe (third) at Warwick as have backed many times and think he is so well handicapped he must go in at some point granted a good stamina test and soft ground.

I think you're right there Fin - Plenty of time to go before I'd start putting loot on it. Lot of them on your list are likely to be in the mix though. I only mentioned Hot Weld cos I was so p'ed off when it didn't go this year, off bottom weight as I think it would have been. Going back to the old chases, my run is still brutal but I've decided to start with 50 pts from tomorrow and see if that gets me past Saturday. There's no staking plan but I do intend to allow myself to swerve any race that isn't throwing up anything obvious/interesting rather than backing something in every 3m plus. Here we go anyway: 13:15 Chel: 5 e/w Mister Apple's 9/1 PP (GP) 13:15 Chel: 5 e/w Alexanderthegreat 12/1 PP (GP)

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases Yeah, that is what I have decided to do now, only play in the 3m+ chases where there is something that interests me, rather than for the sake of doing so. My notes for the first at Cheltenham tomorrow 1.15 Cheltenham Strawberry - returns from 237-day break, has tended to need run in past. 7 lb higher than Kempton win in Feb, has placed in a bumper here over shorter, has won up to 3m. The Sawyer - course winner in January in Grade 3 handicap chase over 2m 5f. Is also a distance winner though. 4 lb higher than last win, hasn't been seen since May, never won on reappearance in previous three tries. Out The Black - credible third at Wincanton and steadily building up fitness after three runs back. No shame in that placing as the winner was unexposed and open to bucket loads of improvement and the second has boosted the form by placing in the Badger Ales since (Bowleaze). Has a poor record at this track - 3/6, 4/4, PU so passed over but only 4 lb higher than valuable Doncaster win last term so is handicapped to have a chance. Hoopy - won this race last term and only lightly raced in chases. Is 9 lb higher this time around though but could still defy that mark. Has a recent pipeopener over hurdles when outpaced over shorter, finishing back in midfield, and wouldn't be a surprise winner at all. Razor Royale - 3m winner in Irish point on debut and is only lightly raced over fences under rules. Beat Nenuphar Collonges at this track as a novice hurdler two years ago over 2m 5f and if develops to the same sort of level as that 140+ rated chaser then would have a cracking chance here off a mark of 129. Landed a novice chase at Bangor and although well held on sole start in handicap company, was entitled to need run, finishing 9/15 in listed handicap at Market Rasen. Acts at this track and handles cut; outsider possibilities for inform Twiston-Davies yard. Radetsky March - won 1-4 over fences, a beginners chase over 2m 6f. 6th and PU on two previous runs at track, makes reappearance. Never So Blue - turned out under 7 lb penalty for wide margin Haydock win for Venetia Williams last weekend. Has won 3-15 and may be able to defy this mark, has won over this distance but failed to complete on only previous run at track so must prove handles course. Rackalackey - 4 lb higher than Fakenham win in May and respectable fourth in valuable Uttoxeter chase in June off 2 lb lower. Others look better handicapped bet entitled to be on the premises and did place in third on only previous course run. Mister Apple's simply loves it here, winning 3/4 including 2/3 over CD. Is approaching the point where the handicapper will nail him and is 8 lb higher than last time out win but impossible to ignore and likely to give his all and run his usual solid race. Alexanderthegreat - 6 lb higher than win here over slightly further two years ago. Another that goes well here but others look better handicapped, but place possibilites all the same. Freeze Up - returns from 235 day break, has been raised 17 lbs for easy win at Plumpton latest. After only three starts over fences, during which time he has won twice, he is open to plenty of improvement, but ability to handle track taken on trust. Verasi - strarted chase career with great promise but the wheels fallen off since and not won for over a year. Has pulled up a remarkable number of times of late and completing would be an acheivement for him. My Lord Oscar - Irish raider from the Enda Bolger yard, is racing off a mark off 118 tomorrow, 13 lb higher than 3m win at thurles, latest. 3-10 over fences and evidently improving, but another with no previous course experience so ducked at the price. Dream Champion - 13 race maiden over fences, sole win over hurdles came off a lowly mark of 84 several years ago so not that appealing at first glance. Could improve now stepped up in trip but no course experience and passed over. Silly Wupple - 2-7 in fences and beat Checkerboard from the Howard Johnson yard when winning at Wetherby in November. Yet to win in handicaps but placed off 5 lb lower at Hexham last time out . Is open to improvement over this trip but no course experience. Notabotheroneme - ran at Chepstow earlier in the week, is probably handicapped to be in with place claims and only had 9 starts in chases but no course experience. Qhilimar - two wins to date have come back in France but not disgraced when fifth off this mark at Exeter last time out over three miles. Open to lots if improvement but too many ifs for tomorrow in view of no course experience. Razor Royale 16/1 Paddypower, 0.45 pt EW (4 places, 1/4 odds) Mister Apple's 9/1 Paddypower, 0.1 pt (saver)

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases Razor Royale just won very nicely, travelled nicely throughout and the official margin of victory was 23-lengths. The handicapper will hit him hard for that, although he is unexposed over the trip and it I won't discard him from the notebook straightaway. The Sawyer ran a cracker in second but was a bit more exposed than the winner, and Mister Apple's ran another fair race at a track he loves and took third. A profit of +7.9 pts is recorded for the race and it puts things back in track again. :)

[stewartd14]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases

Yeah, that is what I have decided to do now, only play in the 3m+ chases where there is something that interests me, rather than for the sake of doing so. My notes for the first at Cheltenham tomorrow 1.15 Cheltenham Strawberry - returns from 237-day break, has tended to need run in past. 7 lb higher than Kempton win in Feb, has placed in a bumper here over shorter, has won up to 3m. The Sawyer - course winner in January in Grade 3 handicap chase over 2m 5f. Is also a distance winner though. 4 lb higher than last win, hasn't been seen since May, never won on reappearance in previous three tries. Out The Black - credible third at Wincanton and steadily building up fitness after three runs back. No shame in that placing as the winner was unexposed and open to bucket loads of improvement and the second has boosted the form by placing in the Badger Ales since (Bowleaze). Has a poor record at this track - 3/6, 4/4, PU so passed over but only 4 lb higher than valuable Doncaster win last term so is handicapped to have a chance. Hoopy - won this race last term and only lightly raced in chases. Is 9 lb higher this time around though but could still defy that mark. Has a recent pipeopener over hurdles when outpaced over shorter, finishing back in midfield, and wouldn't be a surprise winner at all. Razor Royale - 3m winner in Irish point on debut and is only lightly raced over fences under rules. Beat Nenuphar Collonges at this track as a novice hurdler two years ago over 2m 5f and if develops to the same sort of level as that 140+ rated chaser then would have a cracking chance here off a mark of 129. Landed a novice chase at Bangor and although well held on sole start in handicap company, was entitled to need run, finishing 9/15 in listed handicap at Market Rasen. Acts at this track and handles cut; outsider possibilities for inform Twiston-Davies yard. Radetsky March - won 1-4 over fences, a beginners chase over 2m 6f. 6th and PU on two previous runs at track, makes reappearance. Never So Blue - turned out under 7 lb penalty for wide margin Haydock win for Venetia Williams last weekend. Has won 3-15 and may be able to defy this mark, has won over this distance but failed to complete on only previous run at track so must prove handles course. Rackalackey - 4 lb higher than Fakenham win in May and respectable fourth in valuable Uttoxeter chase in June off 2 lb lower. Others look better handicapped bet entitled to be on the premises and did place in third on only previous course run. Mister Apple's simply loves it here, winning 3/4 including 2/3 over CD. Is approaching the point where the handicapper will nail him and is 8 lb higher than last time out win but impossible to ignore and likely to give his all and run his usual solid race. Alexanderthegreat - 6 lb higher than win here over slightly further two years ago. Another that goes well here but others look better handicapped, but place possibilites all the same. Freeze Up - returns from 235 day break, has been raised 17 lbs for easy win at Plumpton latest. After only three starts over fences, during which time he has won twice, he is open to plenty of improvement, but ability to handle track taken on trust. Verasi - strarted chase career with great promise but the wheels fallen off since and not won for over a year. Has pulled up a remarkable number of times of late and completing would be an acheivement for him. My Lord Oscar - Irish raider from the Enda Bolger yard, is racing off a mark off 118 tomorrow, 13 lb higher than 3m win at thurles, latest. 3-10 over fences and evidently improving, but another with no previous course experience so ducked at the price. Dream Champion - 13 race maiden over fences, sole win over hurdles came off a lowly mark of 84 several years ago so not that appealing at first glance. Could improve now stepped up in trip but no course experience and passed over. Silly Wupple - 2-7 in fences and beat Checkerboard from the Howard Johnson yard when winning at Wetherby in November. Yet to win in handicaps but placed off 5 lb lower at Hexham last time out . Is open to improvement over this trip but no course experience. Notabotheroneme - ran at Chepstow earlier in the week, is probably handicapped to be in with place claims and only had 9 starts in chases but no course experience. Qhilimar - two wins to date have come back in France but not disgraced when fifth off this mark at Exeter last time out over three miles. Open to lots if improvement but too many ifs for tomorrow in view of no course experience. Razor Royale 16/1 Paddypower, 0.45 pt EW (4 places, 1/4 odds) Mister Apple's 9/1 Paddypower, 0.1 pt (saver)

Brilliant write up, and the winner to boot. :clap:clap:clap

[StuSimmy]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases Well played fintron, very nice winner there for you :clap

[Trendsman]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases Nice call Wayne Won easily :ok

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases cheers lads :ok Onto tomorrows 3m+ handicap chase at Cheltenham 1.55 Cheltenham Miko de Beauchene - classy chaser than won Welsh National and valuable stayers race at Haydock afterward, on 07/08. Respectable third off this mark at Haydock in Feb this year but pretty exposed now and has fallen on last two runs. Don't Push It - progressive chaser that has won 4-10. Is 8 lb higher than Ascot win in April but classy type that was second to Big Buck's over hurdles here in January and handles course fine, winning a novices chase over shorter here in 2006, also around that time finding only Denman too good in a novices event, so could go well here. Had a recent pipeopener over a trip that would have been sharp enough, and entitled to build upon that. Regal Heights - 10 lb higher than Ascot win last January, but not seen for a year and form at back of last season was uninspiring, passed over. Chelsea Harbour - dour stayer that fell in last years National after finishing 9th the preceding year. 10 lb higher than last handicap win and others probably better handicapped. Lacdoudal - experienced chaser but capable on his day and won valuable Sandown chase off 7 lb higher in past. However, that was many years ago. He has slipped back down to a good mark and was placed behind Hennessy at Sandown in April but looks vulnerable to an improver even if proven to handle track. Maljimar - goes well here, winner over 2m 5f and impressive second in the William Hill trophy at the festival. Is only 4 lb higher now and shaped as if needing the run when second to Nelson's Spice here last time out. Will strip fitter for the run, big chance. Russian Trigger - winner of Kent National and Midlands National so stamina proven for sure. Is 2-4 over fences and open to more improvement, but unproven on track. Hello Bud - Scottish National winner that hails from bang in form Twiston-Davies yard. 7 lb higher than Ayr success but record of 7-18 over fences reads well and has had the benefit of a recent run. Ability to handle track taken on trust though. Best Actor - seemed to be travelling well at Aintree last time out but pulled up in the end, on first run back since February. Open to more improvement but disappointing 8th at the track on only previous try. Zacharova - not seen since April but can go well fresh and 7 lb rise from last win may be defiable. Pulled up in valuable Sandown chase last time out so has a little to prove off the back of that but is a course winner over further and respected. Baron Windrush - Midlands National winner in 2007 but lost his way since. Plenty to prove on return from lengthy break, has often failed to complete in previous course runs. Galant Nuit - races from 1 lb out of the handicap, has finished respectably in two previous runs here even if unplaced, and open to more improvement in this sphere after just six runs (1 win). Yet to win in handicap company though, others appeal more. My tissue prices were: Don't Push It 5/1, Majimar 13/2, Russian Trigger 7/1, Hello Bud 15/2, Lacdoudal 10/1, Zacharova 12/1, Miko du Beauchene 14/1, Chelsea Harbour 16/1, Best Actor 18/1, Galant Nuit 20/1, Regal Heights 25/1, Baron Windrush 40/1 Bets: Don't Push It 15/2 Tote, 0.5 pt Maljimar 8/1 Paddypower, 0.4 pt Lacdoudal 14/1 Paddypower, 0.1 pt (saver)

[Treviticus]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases Nice work today Fin. Unfortunately my father-in-law croaked this morning so the studying is out the window for a few days. Nevertheless: 5 e/w Maljimar 5 e/w Zacharova

[Gingertipster]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases

cheers lads :ok Onto tomorrows 3m+ handicap chase at Cheltenham 1.55 Cheltenham Miko de Beauchene - classy chaser than won Welsh National and valuable stayers race at Haydock afterward, on 07/08. Respectable third off this mark at Haydock in Feb this year but pretty exposed now and has fallen on last two runs. Don't Push It - progressive chaser that has won 4-10. Is 8 lb higher than Ascot win in April but classy type that was second to Big Buck's over hurdles here in January and handles course fine, winning a novices chase over shorter here in 2006, also around that time finding only Denman too good in a novices event, so could go well here. Had a recent pipeopener over a trip that would have been sharp enough, and entitled to build upon that. Regal Heights - 10 lb higher than Ascot win last January, but not seen for a year and form at back of last season was uninspiring, passed over. Chelsea Harbour - dour stayer that fell in last years National after finishing 9th the preceding year. 10 lb higher than last handicap win and others probably better handicapped. Lacdoudal - experienced chaser but capable on his day and won valuable Sandown chase off 7 lb higher in past. However, that was many years ago. He has slipped back down to a good mark and was placed behind Hennessy at Sandown in April but looks vulnerable to an improver even if proven to handle track. Maljimar - goes well here, winner over 2m 5f and impressive second in the William Hill trophy at the festival. Is only 4 lb higher now and shaped as if needing the run when second to Nelson's Spice here last time out. Will strip fitter for the run, big chance. Russian Trigger - winner of Kent National and Midlands National so stamina proven for sure. Is 2-4 over fences and open to more improvement, but unproven on track. Hello Bud - Scottish National winner that hails from bang in form Twiston-Davies yard. 7 lb higher than Ayr success but record of 7-18 over fences reads well and has had the benefit of a recent run. Ability to handle track taken on trust though. Best Actor - seemed to be travelling well at Aintree last time out but pulled up in the end, on first run back since February. Open to more improvement but disappointing 8th at the track on only previous try. Zacharova - not seen since April but can go well fresh and 7 lb rise from last win may be defiable. Pulled up in valuable Sandown chase last time out so has a little to prove off the back of that but is a course winner over further and respected. Baron Windrush - Midlands National winner in 2007 but lost his way since. Plenty to prove on return from lengthy break, has often failed to complete in previous course runs. Galant Nuit - races from 1 lb out of the handicap, has finished respectably in two previous runs here even if unplaced, and open to more improvement in this sphere after just six runs (1 win). Yet to win in handicap company though, others appeal more. My tissue prices were: Don't Push It 5/1, Majimar 13/2, Russian Trigger 7/1, Hello Bud 15/2, Lacdoudal 10/1, Zacharova 12/1, Miko du Beauchene 14/1, Chelsea Harbour 16/1, Best Actor 18/1, Galant Nuit 20/1, Regal Heights 25/1, Baron Windrush 40/1 Bets: Don't Push It 15/2 Tote, 0.5 pt Maljimar 8/1 Paddypower, 0.4 pt Lacdoudal 14/1 Paddypower, 0.1 pt (saver)

As it is nice to compare sometimes here are my thoughts on the race. Would have rated Don't Push It and Maljimar if the going was much sounder Fin. Can't see them staying now it's got very soft. Russian Trigger, Hello Bud, Zacharova and Miko will be suited by the emphasis on stamina. So too will Galant Nuit, got an awful ride last time from his claiming jockey. Lot better than his finishing position suggests. Myprices for very soft are: Hello Bud 9/2, Galant Nuit 11/2, Russian Trigger 15/2, Zacharova 10/1, Lacdoudal 11/1, Miko De Beauchene 12/1, Chelsea Harbour 12/1, Don't Push It 12/1, Maljimar 16/1, Baron Windrush 33/1, Regal Heights 66/1 and Best Actor 100/1. Hello Bud and Galant Nuit available at 7/1, Zacharova 12/1 and Lacdoudal 16/1. Obviously my main bet is Hello Bud.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases

As it is nice to compare sometimes here are my thoughts on the race. Would have rated Don't Push It and Maljimar if the going was much sounder Fin. Can't see them staying now it's got very soft. Russian Trigger, Hello Bud, Zacharova and Miko will be suited by the emphasis on stamina. So too will Galant Nuit, got an awful ride last time from his claiming jockey. Lot better than his finishing position suggests. Myprices for very soft are: Hello Bud 9/2, Galant Nuit 11/2, Russian Trigger 15/2, Zacharova 10/1, Lacdoudal 11/1, Miko De Beauchene 12/1, Chelsea Harbour 12/1, Don't Push It 12/1, Maljimar 16/1, Baron Windrush 33/1, Regal Heights 66/1 and Best Actor 100/1. Hello Bud and Galant Nuit available at 7/1, Zacharova 12/1 and Lacdoudal 16/1. Obviously my main bet is Hello Bud.

I agree that the strong stayers, the likes of Miko du Beauchene, Hello Bud and Russian Trigger will all favour a race that brings stamina into play, but I placed quite a bit of emphasis on course form in my prices, hence why Don't Push It and Maljimar were my fav and 2nd fav, even if you normally expect an unexposed and progressive type to normally fill that position in the betting. On another track I would probably shorten up the younger ones, but think Cheltenham is an exceptional circumstance. Galant Nuit was the glaring discrepency between my prices and your prices/those available. I wasn't overly impressed looking at his form and have seemingly looked over something there, but I personally like others more. Don't Push It and Maljimar have won on slow ground though previously Ginge, not sure if the actual going was as described in the description, but I did draw up my tissue at 2 pm yesterday, the ground has since deteriorated overnight, but I did think that even if the going did change to soft, Don't Push It would be okay. He is more exposed than some but his experience of the track will prove key. He was closely matched the Denman in a novices race, I was impressed with that, and I felt, after staying on late over 25f recently, he was worth a crack at this trip today, which could unlock a bit more improvement even though he is more experienced that the likes of Russian Trigger/gallant Nuit etc. Admittedly, it will requite a great deal more stamina today for him to stay the distance, and the ground is slightly softer, but time will tell and its still a learning curve for me, I don't usually draw up a full tissue, but having studied the race for an hour or so, thought it would be fun to have a go before the RP tissue came out and the market formed.

[Gingertipster]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases Although we have come to different conclusions Fintron, your reasoning is as always well thought out.:ok With Don't Push It and Maljimar they both act on very soft, just don't think they'll stay the 3m3f on very soft. But we shall see. I did wonder whether your prices were worked out before the very soft going was known about. I worked out my PP Gold Cup prices yesterday morning and had to change them dramatically by evening time when I looked at the weather forecast. Good luck Mark

[diamond1924]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases The ground and first time out form suggests Hello Bud to me as a chance too. Fintron, what about Zitenka in the 325 at Wetherby? We've backed him a few times this year and he's not got going yet, but on form I'd be backing him here but the last two efforts have scared me off him a bit... then you look at his course form, mark, going...

[diamond1924]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases

Fintron, what about Zitenka in the 325 at Wetherby? We've backed him a few times this year and he's not got going yet, but on form I'd be backing him here but the last two efforts have scared me off him a bit... then you look at his course form, mark, going...

:beer

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases

The ground and first time out form suggests Hello Bud to me as a chance too. Fintron, what about Zitenka in the 325 at Wetherby? We've backed him a few times this year and he's not got going yet, but on form I'd be backing him here but the last two efforts have scared me off him a bit... then you look at his course form, mark, going...

Well done mate, super call, returned a 16/1 winner. :clap I have been out at football today and simply did not have time to look at Wetherby or Uttoxeter at all, so unfortunately missed it. :wall As you know, I have been sweet on him a couple of times of late, yeah and have backed him twice in this thread, on the 22nd and 31st October. As you say, he has disappointed, but I noted a distinct lack of support on the market last time out when he was a drifter. Today I would have looked at the market before deciding my weight of stake but at those sort of odds I beleive you simply have to have a crack if you feel it has a chance as you kick yourself if you don't. I would have definately backed him today, being a notebook horse, but If I am being honest I wouldnt have had him as my main bet given he has failed to complete recently, I would have probably gone 0.25 pt win and had Dawn Ride as my main bet. Oh well, just one of those things I suppose, not enough hours in a day, and at least it justifies backing him before - as he has proven well handicapped after all. Good work getting on today.

[Tipster5000]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases

1st November 2009 Carlisle 3.15 Molson Coors Cumberland Handicap Chase (CLASS 3) Zitenka Holds a 100% strike rate over conditions when winning at Wetherby last year, 2lbs down on that form and cannot be dismissed for the Easterby yard, Mr Strachan who was unlucky not to place off 11-8 last year at Bangor-On-Dee and could easily be in the mix after being lightly raced of late, Malko De Beaumont should get a fine tune out of these conditions and has ran some good races with more weight then todays mark and could easily pick up prize money. Advice Back Zitenka £4 E/W @ 16/1 W/Betfred, Mr Strachan £2 E/W @ 20/1 W/SkyBet & Malko De Beaumont £4 Win @ 13/2 W/Bet365

This was on my thread earlier in the month where he ran no race............. what a nightmare that i never spotted him again. But well done guys

[diamond1924]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases I think after the last run I said it looked like he needed another run or so, but when I looked at his Wetherby record this morning it looked like he was maybe aimed at this one.