Fintron's Jumps Thread - 2010/11

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 2010/11 2.40 Carlisle Class 2 Intermediate Chase here and the useful Weird Al dominates the betting. Giving weight to all the field I am gonna take him on with DOOR BOY who is the rank outsider at 14/1 despite being 8/1 (SL) and 6/1 (RP) in the forecast prices. Horse was a faller in the Jewson but ran well at Aintree after when behind Burton Point in a Grade 2 novices hurdle. Drops back in trip here but a dist winner. 14/1 Bet 365, 2 pts win 3.10 Carlisle PALACE MERANO contests this 3m 2f class 3 handicap chase off a mark of 126, having won off 112 in Ireland on his latest start. He changed hands for £18k in May and could go well here with the yard in good order. a 5/1 (SL) and 11/2 chance (RP) in the forecast prices but 8/1 avail here. 8/1 William Hill, 2 pt win

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 2010/11 3.00 Huntingdon Class 3 handicap chase run over 2m 110 yards here and KNIGHT LEGEND looks a good price with Phillip Hobbs bang in form. 7/2 on RPF and 5/1 on SL but 7's available. Horse has been building up his fitness of late and his Worcester second in July has been boosted by the winner going in again at Aintree recently. 7/1 VC Bet, 2 pts win 2.20 Cork MISS MITCH caught the eye last season when placed behind the Sawyer. Is allowed to race off a 3 lb lower mark now and should benefit from this longer trip and a recent pipeopener. 7/1 and 8/1 forecasted but 12/1 avail. 12/1 William Hill, 2 pts win

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 2010/11 1.25 Navan AITMATOV won this race last year, is a dual CD winner and crucially holds a fitness edge over this field. Could make every yard of this grade 2 hurdle. 15/8 Blue Sq, 1 pt win.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 2010/11 2.00 Hereford BOBBY BULLOCK - impressed with his jumping at Towcester and could be well in under penalty. Evs Blue Sq, 1 pt win 2.15 Ffos Las CHAIN OF COMMAND - impressed with jumping at Kempton recently and unexposed. 11/10 paddy, 1 pt win

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 2010/11 Looking to pick this thread back up again after a lengthy absence. It started all guns blazing two years ago, but results gradually wore off. Whether that was a supposed 'edge' wearing off as more results were collected, diluting out the effect of beginners luck, or whether I was guilty of straying from the original methods I'm not totally sure, probably a bit of both to be fair, but things were going okay on the Spring ground two years ago and hopefully that can spark a revival. I'm ditching the 'value' method I'd used this season as it wasn't working (guilty of muddling up my flat and jumps methods here I guess) and will be going back to the basic method at the start of the thread - 1 pt level stakes per race, looking for those with reasonable chances that have winning form at or around the trip, in 3m+ handicap chases only. It would be nice if it could culminate in a grand national winner but I'd settle for a winner in a class 5 at Hexham to get things rolling again in the short term. - Season up to this point has produced -20 pts profit of 29 pts staked. - The thread since day 1 has -27.7 pts profit off 165.55 pt staked. Will add all future results onto this total but will also be keeping a new tally for the season from today, given the methods have changed. First bet will be the 3m novices chase at Exeter tomorrow....

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 2010/11 4.10 Exeter Lions In Law, a winner between the flags, faces a difficult task from out of the weights and is opposed along with El Diego, who is yet to win over obstacles. Theophrastus opened his account over fences last time and could have more improvement left in the tank now granted better ground. He is up 11 lb for his recent Folkestone success but is probably capable of better. Days of Pleasure makes only his second chase start, looks opposable for the time being. Take A Mile is proven up to 2m7f and has plenty of chase experience. Remains unexposed over this trip and although 11 lb higher than Plumpton win in May has been running well recently off 104. Picture in The Sky needs to show more before becomes a viable proposition. Lady De La Vega comes back over fences after a poor showing over hurdles last time. Had been improving in this sphere prior to that, win came on soft but cannot be ruled out. Tarabella is up 9lb for her soft ground win at Towcester last time, however, her hurdles form reveals she does act on good ground as well and she forms part of the short list. Final stakes to be posted when prices are out tomorrow

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 2010/11

4.10 Exeter Lions In Law, a winner between the flags, faces a difficult task from out of the weights and is opposed along with El Diego, who is yet to win over obstacles. Theophrastus opened his account over fences last time and could have more improvement left in the tank now granted better ground. He is up 11 lb for his recent Folkestone success but is probably capable of better. Days of Pleasure makes only his second chase start, looks opposable for the time being. Take A Mile is proven up to 2m7f and has plenty of chase experience. Remains unexposed over this trip and although 11 lb higher than Plumpton win in May has been running well recently off 104. Picture in The Sky needs to show more before becomes a viable proposition. Lady De La Vega comes back over fences after a poor showing over hurdles last time. Had been improving in this sphere prior to that, win came on soft but cannot be ruled out. Tarabella is up 9lb for her soft ground win at Towcester last time, however, her hurdles form reveals she does act on good ground as well and she forms part of the short list. Final stakes to be posted when prices are out tomorrow

Theophrastus forms the main bet with the other two as savers. Effectively taking just better than 6/5 for the jolly with two others onside in the race. Final Bets: Theophrastus 5/2 Paddypower, 0.65 pt Lady De La Vega 4/1 Hills, 0.20 pt Tarabela 8/1 Coral, 0.15 pt

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 2010/11 2.10 haydock Maurisca - looks well in under pen and likes good ground Its Like That - in form in hunters chases and sees trip no prob Seize - dropped back down in weights to good mark Daldini - trainer excels here, horse very well treated Lahib The Fifth - shapes like longer trip will suit Bets Mauisca 5/2 b365, 0.6 pt win It's Like That 10/1 hills, 0.4 pt win

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 2010/11 2.10 haydock Maurisca - looks well in under pen and likes good ground Its Like That - in form in hunters chases and sees trip no prob Seize - dropped back down in weights to good mark Daldini - trainer excels here, horse very well treated Lahib The Fifth - shapes like longer trip will suit Bets Mauisca 5/2 b365, 0.6 pt win It's Like That 10/1 hills, 0.4 pt win

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 2010/11 3.30 Warwick Only two of these have stayed on over this sort of trip. Handily both act on good so backing both and taking evens for the pair coupled: Arnold layne 3s vc bet, 0.5 pt win Rudinero 3s.vc bet, 0.5 pt win

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 2010/11 Theoraphstus won at 5/2, Maurisca won at 5/2 and Arnold Layne won at 3/1 so a pleasing few days since getting the thread moving again. Pts staked: 3 Pts Profit:+3.38 Getting some of the donkey work out of the way for tomorrow.... 3.15 Chepstow A 3m event for horses rated 0-115. Silver Story ran well when third in a hunters chase last term. Has won four times in point to points. Ran well on handicap debut at Ffos Las last time and shapes as if longer trip will suit. Victory Gunner is a dour stayer, won over 31f at Folkestone last time but may prefer slower ground. Freeze Up won off 109 at Plumpton in March '09 but not gone in since. Has come back down the weights and did run well at Newbury earlier in year. Last effort tempers enthusiasm but a backable price to have as a second bet. Final bets: Silver Story 13/2 Hills, 0.75 pt win Freeze Up 10/1 Hills, 0.25 pt win

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 2010/11 Two more 3m h'cap chases for tomorrow..... 2.00 Southwell Just the field of five here over an extended 3m. All would appear to stay. Shammy Buskins is a funny sort, refused to race at Warwick earlier in month but probably capble of scoring off this mark was a fair second in a 0-125 at Statford earlier this year and now in a 0-115. Quirky but capable, all wins on GF. The blinkered Ovthenight won a novice hurdle here and has ideal ground. Won a chase at Huntingdon earlier in year off 105 and now eased 2lb from last run, only 4lb higher now. Had 5 chase runs; capable of better. Backfromthecongo is a triple 3m winner. Experience and versatile going wise. Rebel Melody 1lb higher than Wincanton win in November. Been dropping in weights as losing run continues. Niggly suspicion may want further. Melchiezdeck yet to score under rules. Sole win came between the flags, on heavy, may prefer more testing conditions. Final bets: Backfromthecongo 7/4 VC Bet, 0.85 pt Ovthenight 6/1 VC Bet, 0.15 pt saver 4.35 Carlisle Similar sort of race to that at Cheppy, 0-110 this time, only seven runners set to face the starter. Quinder Spring is 7lb higher than M'Rasen win from November. Been running credibly since and having been outpaced over 2m4f at Musselburgh last time, return to staying trips will suit. Sotovik won here over 2m in October but has winning form over this far as well. All wins come on GS or slower. Needs to up his game to figure though, well held on all recent runs. Ballycarron Lad comes back into this sphere after three runs over hurdles since the turn of the year. Now handicapping in this sphere, entitled to improve; was fourth to L'Ami over fences at Punchestown in '09. Bets to follow when prices are out tomorrow

[cc75]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 2010/11 Very well done Fin, think your work since resurrecting this thread deserves a :clap at the very least. 3/3 winners picked so far - excellent start. Well done again mate and keep it up :ok

[StuSimmy]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 2010/11 Nice to see how well you have done since picking this thread up again mate :clap

[mowgli77]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 2010/11

Theoraphstus won at 5/2, Maurisca won at 5/2 and Arnold Layne won at 3/1 so a pleasing few days since getting the thread moving again. Pts staked: 3 Pts Profit:+3.38 Getting some of the donkey work out of the way for tomorrow.... 3.15 Chepstow A 3m event for horses rated 0-115. Silver Story ran well when third in a hunters chase last term. Has won four times in point to points. Ran well on handicap debut at Ffos Las last time and shapes as if longer trip will suit. Victory Gunner is a dour stayer, won over 31f at Folkestone last time but may prefer slower ground. Freeze Up won off 109 at Plumpton in March '09 but not gone in since. Has come back down the weights and did run well at Newbury earlier in year. Last effort tempers enthusiasm but a backable price to have as a second bet. Final bets: Silver Story 13/2 Hills, 0.75 pt win Freeze Up 10/1 Hills, 0.25 pt win

I've just been looking at this race and Freeze Up is a silly price. Half this field don't like good ground and half don't get or are unproven over 3m. Freeze Up was an 11 length winner off 105 but was hit hard by the handicapper up to 122 and has been dropping since. Goes off 107 today and was 3rd off 112. Moved yards too to the Hobbs stable, he's had 4 winners recently. Gets the trip and goes on the ground, why the hell is it 10-1? Has it's leg fallen off. I was going to text you about this but then remembered you have a 3m jumps thread, I've just taken 10-1 with Bet365.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 2010/11 Thanks for the comments lads. Fingers crossed for Freeze Up then Mowgli :-) 4.35 Carlisle Bets: Quinder Spring 11/8 B365, 0.35 pt saver Sotovik 8/1 b365, 0.1 pt saver Ballycarron Lad 7/2 b365, 0.55 pt

[mileni4uk]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 2010/11

Silver Story 13/2 Hills, 0.75 pt win Freeze Up 10/1 Hills, 0.25 pt win

I was interested in exactly those two, but wasn't sure what to expect from Lavelle's and the fav is a good horse. Something's niggling me and I have a feeling they'll finish 2nd and 3rd to one of those, plus prices have gone now. :)

[cc75]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 2010/11

Thanks for the comments lads. Fingers crossed for Freeze Up then Mowgli :-) 4.35 Carlisle Bets: Quinder Spring 11/8 B365, 0.35 pt saver Sotovik 8/1 b365, 0.1 pt saver Ballycarron Lad 7/2 b365, 0.55 pt

:clap:clap One of the most bizarre races i've ever watched! Great result Fin :ok

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 2010/11 Cheers CC. I must admit, I'm too impatient to watch the full replay back but watched the finish on the Sporting Life replay and the commentator said Ballycarron Lad was being driven along mid race? He finished his race like a train and was eased down close home :) The bad news was the the WD and NR meant I lost the price, infact they applied BOG and settled at 5/2. With Sotovoik a NR that means a profit of +1.03 pt on the race, -0.97 pts on the day. Overall: 5.9 pts staked, +2.41 pts

[BKI Punter]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 2010/11 Looks like the leaders went off ridiculously quick, you wouldn't have given your horse any sort of chance at one stage. Quinder Spring and the other one jumped the second last in the lead and both got beat by 30+ lengths. Good stuff lately Fin. :ok

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 2010/11 Quality! Wonder what price it touched in running. For tomorrow: 3.50 Newbury 3m novice chase here on good ground. Bai Zhu won novice hurdle here last term. Won Fontwell chase on debut in this sphere on reappearance and although held in handicap last time, capable of better. Best form come on GS. Patsy Finnegan makes handicap debut over fences. Won off 121 over hurdles and only 1lb higher in this sphere. Chased home so fair sorts in novice chases, up in trip and expected to suit. Goes on good. Persian Run is inconsisent, capable on his day and stays this far but has pulled up on two of last 4 runs. Frankie Anson second off 1lb lower over this trip at Doncaster last time. Seems to be getting hang of things now and considered. Winterwood up 9lb for Ffos Las chase win last time. Only had 4 runs over fences and open to more improvement. Bets to follow when prices out

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 2010/11 Newbury bets: Bai Zhu 4/1 Hills, 0.55 pt win Patsy Finnegan 7/2 Bet 365, 0.25 pt saver Frankie Anson 9/2 Hills, 0.2 pt saver 4.35 Sedgefield 12 yo Fine By Me is a strong stayer on his day and only 1lb higher than his last win but has failed to complete on all of last three runs. Acts on good though. Elzahann landed a beginners chase at Ayr in January but recent efforts habe been poor. Needs more now handicapping. Nellidedonethat surprisingly won over 2m4f at Musselburgh on his penultimate run but gets this far and beyond. Has won here in the past and versatile ground wise - whether he wins could be a case of whether he can run around this mark as a career best is needed. Oniz Tiptoes has been running very consistently, was second to progressive Maurisca last time out at Market Rasen, that form franked earlier in week. Well handicapped on best form. The Artful Fox is back down to his last winning mark (which was on good). Should stay but needs to build upon disappointing efforts of late. Bets to follow when prices are out

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 2010/11 Sedgefield bets: Oniz Tiptoes 3s b365 0.65 pt Nelliedonethat 7/2 b365, 0.35 pt

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 2010/11 Bahi Zhu won at 4/1 earlier for +1.75 pts profit on the race. Oniz Tiptoez never travelled at Sedgfield and the other one lacked fluency when it mattered so -1 pt on that race. New totals (since re start): Races Played in: 8 Pts staked: 7.9 pts Profit: +3.16 Yield: +40 % Moving onto Saturday and there is one 3m+ handicap chase, one of the televised races from Newbury, 3.25 Newbury The most competitive race I've tackled for a while and open to chasers rated 0-140 (class 2) over an extended 3m2f. Maktu has winning form up to 3m2f (hurdles) but won twice over fences too. Yet to score in handicaps. Fifth in Welsh National and not without hope. Ogee another yet to score in handicaps. Credible fourth in Grimthorpe last time and more likely to appreciate the ground that Maktu, whose probably better on slower. Burren Legend won over C&D 12 months ago and followed up with credible second at Cheltenham nto off 127. Runs off 128 here, pulled up at Prestbury Park when last sighted but this is easier than the Kim Muir and price looks disgustingly big (probably cos of trainer). Briery Fox is very experienced, won a veterans chase at back end of last term and although poor so far this year, dropping back in weights. Has run well here in past and goes on ground. Theatre Dance fitted with first time visor and has gone well here in past. dropped quite a way in weights as yet to score since landing beginners chase two years ago. Hinted revival was imminent last time, Big Baz booked to ride, rain would boost chances. Double Dizzy 8lb higher than WIncanton win last month. Thoroughly exposed, may be better RH. Winterwood ran today and his participation must be in doubt. Scots Dragoon has produced most of his best form going in other direction. Needs to step up his recent level of form to figure. Rey Nacarado lightly raced in this sphere, just four runs, 6lb above Plumpton win in Dec but remains capable of better. Not one to smash into at short prices but the most likely winner perhaps. Final bets: Burren Legend 25/1 Hills, 0.2 pt Briery Fox 14/1 Hills, 0.15 pt Theatre Dance 8/1 Bet 365, 0.15 pt Rey Nacarado 9/2 Bet 365, 0.5 pt win

[cc75]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 2010/11

Rey Nacarado 9/2 Bet 365, 0.5 pt win

:clap:clap Well done Fintron - keep it up matey :ok

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 2010/11 Cheers CC 4.40 Hexham Dawn Ride bit of a wetherby specialist but goes on ground and dropping in weights Its A Classic. Has long break to overcome but 3-13 over fences, capable of better Copper's Gold is CD winner, up 10 lb for newc win but going right way Teerie Express gone well here in past and has claims now dropped back in trip Coppers Gold 13/2 hills, 0.5 pt Dawn Ride 20/1 hills, 0.1 pt Its a classic 10/1 hills, 0.1 pt saver Teerie express 7/1 hills, 0.3 pt

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 2010/11 3.25 wincanton Drybrook Bedoiun looks feasibly weighted, 1 lb lower than cd second in feb Choumaker getting over a long break and won well last time. Up 12 lb but open to more improvement Skipper's Lad behind last named earlier in month but off revised terms could close gap Drybrook Bedoiun 6/1 vc, 0.35 pt win Choumaker 3s b365, 0.55 pt win Skippers Lad 5s b365, 0.1 pt semi saver

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 2010/11 0-2 yesterday - 2 pt loss. 3.40 Plumpton 3m2f chase here for runners rated 0-100. A field of five go. Allterrain won over C&D last April off 89. Held form well for a few runs after. Has failed to complete last three times, latest in Feb, but only 3lb above last win. Might spring a shock. Ethoipia won here off 94 in May, has now dropped a whopping 10 lb lower now. Hasnt been disgraced on ground softer than ideal since but handicapper has given him every chance; should go well. Absolute Shambles is 8lb lower than when winning a novices handicap in Nov '09. Needs to raise his game to figure. Zimbabwe goes well here but prefers slower. Final bets: Ethiopia 2/1 Blue Square, 0.7 pt Allterrain 5/1 Blue Square, 0.3 pt

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 2010/11 4.00 Towcester 8 runners for this 0-110 chase over an extended 3m. Terrible Tenant returns from 102 day break but has gone well fresh in past. Last win came off 10 lb higher but that was May '09. Has won here and step up in trip will suit but little to prove at present and banking on others misfiring to prevail. Von Galen won over C&D in October off 81. Held off this mark last time but only beaten a head, still improving. Acts on good ground, big chance. Silver Bay won a 3m hurdle a few years ago but remains a maiden over fences. Crank Hill has crucial C&D form and did win a maiden point on good ground. Won over hurdles at Exeter in Jan and rated lower in this sphere but has a little to find based on last two efforts since returned to larger obstacles. Jolly Boys Outing yet to score under rules, recent chase efforts leave a lot to be desired. Final bets: Von Galen 7/2 Hills, 0.65 pt win Crank Hill, 11/1 VC Bet, 0.25 pt win Terrible Tenant 25/1 VC Bet, 0.1 pt win

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 2010/11 I'm going to lay a few cards on the table for the Grand National as the race is quickly approaching. Grand National Ante-post bets - Aintree 9th April The race is run over 4m4f and the ground is expected to be good, possibly declared as good to soft if they water but probably good. Just going through a list of the recent winners, all had underlined their staying credentials with a win or good placing a stayers chase. Nimbersixvalverde won the Irish National (3m5f), Silver Birch had won the Welsh National (3m6f) and placed in a 3m7f race at Cheltenham (X Country). Comply Or Die won the Eider (4m1f), Mon Mome had placed in the Welsh National and Don't Push It had placed in a 3m4f chase at Cheltenham. So taking that as a starting point, I ideally want a chaser with winning form over 3m4f+ or at worst, one that has finished runner up over that sort of trip. Don't Push It won the race last year of course and is 7lb higher. Might find several better treated but should run a race. Midnight Chase has won over 3m4f and ran a cracker in the Gold Cup. Loves good ground but market suggesting he is unlikely to take part. Would have interested otherwise and may be a late bet. Synchronised won the Welsh National but all form has been on slower ground then likely to encounter at Aintree. Niche Market won the Irish National off 136 - 13 lower than he races off today. Ruby has passed over in favour of The Midnight Club but wasn't disgraced when fifth in the Hennessy and is ruled out at your peril. Silver By Nature won the Blue Square Gold Cup over 3m4f (twice) at Haydock but best form seen on slower ground. Notre Pere is another former Welsh National winner but prefers softer. Oscar Time has won up to 3m but was second to Bluesea Cracker in the Irish National last April. Might prefer softer. Ballytrim has won over 3m6f in Ireland but like a lot of the Irish, might not appreciate the ground this quick. Becauseicouldntsee may be one exception, stayed on for second in the Paddypower Chase and was second in the 4m National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham (good) last season. Has had a set back and missed prep runs but is no forlorn hope of a really good mark. Comply Or Die is one of the best weighted horses in the race, won this in 2008, placed the year after, was disappointed last year but can be forgiven most of his runs this year as hasn't been off. Will appreciate the good ground, whether he is good enough to win again remains to be seen but should go well at a huge price. Getting towards the bottom end of the weights now. I've got a soft spot for Hello Bud, he won the Scottish National over 4m1f and ran a cracker for me under Sam Twiston Davies last year when fifth. Has won the Becher this year and loves the fences. Similar to Comply Or Die in that he isn't getting any younger, but looks overpriced given his bold jumping and liking for the fences. West End Rocker won over 3m5f at Warwick in January on heavy but does act on good. Disappointing when travelling well for a way and blowing up at Haydock last time, but perhaps a hard race told. Open to more improvement over fences and not one to write off yet. Those horses mentioned from this point onwards are not guaranteed to make the cut. There is a chance they might if those above in the weights come out though. Surface To Air won the Midlands National in 2008 but was off the track for three years since. Made a low key return at Market Rasen last time and maybe this race might come a little too soon for him. Arbor Supreme was one of my bets last year, a bit of a character really because he does stay, won over 3m6f in ireland. Looks well weighted and acts on good ground. Not entirely reliable, however. Our Monty won the Cork Grand National on heavy (3m4f) but does also act on good. Only had 5 runs over fences under rules, but won three of them. Belon Gale has won over 4m at Hexham but prefers softer. Le Beau Bai won over 3m5f at Warwick but might find conditions too fast. Merigo won the Scottish National on good ground last season and although he is 10 lb higher, has more to offer over fences. Poor efforts this term but not without a chance. Nothing else looks rated high enough to get in Final shortlist Don't Push It Midnight Chase (33/1 but 100.0 + on Betfair - doubtful runner) Niche Market Becauseicouldntsee Comply Or Die Hello Bud West End Rocker Arbor Supreme (20/1 NRNB or 25/1 elsewhere) Merigo (28/1 NRNB or 33/1 elsewhere) Final Bets The Betfair price on Midnight Chase worries me so if I'm going to have anything on that one, it would be after the final decs have been made and his participation is certain. I think former winners Don't Push It and Comply Or Die will run gallant races and give it a good go but both, along with Hello Bud, may end up having to settle for a place if something more progressive finds them out on the day. As a result they are small bets as are Arbor Supreme, who doesn't totally convince me with his attitude, and Merigo, who might not even get in off 137 - so taking NRNB for the last two. Becauseicouldntsee comes into the race off the back of missing prep runs because of injury and it might be a tall order for him to win now, so that one also goes into the small bet category in the belief he is probably looking at EW money at best. That leaves West End Rocker and Niche Market as the main bets. West End Rocker 33/1 Stan James, 0.25 pt Niche Market 18/1 Stan James, 0.25 pt Don't Push It 16/1 Stan James, 0.125 pt Comply Or Die 100/1 Betfair, 0.025 pt Becauseicouldntsee 28/1 Bet 365 (NRNB), 0.075 pt Hello Bud 28/1 Bet 365 (NRNB), 0.075 pt win Arbor Supreme 20/1 Bet 365 (NRNB), 0.1 pt Merigo 28/1 Bet 365 (NRNB), 0.1 pt 1 pt staked in total. Basically, if West End Rocker or Niche Market wins, it has been worth my while. If Any of the other six win then I will save and also make a little bit of profit to fund bets in another race. If it all goes tits up and one from outside of the shortlist wins - quite possible given the nature of the race - I'm only 1 pt worse off, just like a normal losing race.