Fintron's Jumps Thread - 2010/11

[fintron]

I know this is stating the obvious but in handicap chases over 3m+ it really is an advantage to have previous form over that distance or further. I have looked at 50 handicap chases run between January and March this year and looked for several things: 1. Does a horses position in the handicap indicate it is more likely to win (as is the case on the AW with horses from the top of the handicap faring best)? 2. Is there a price band of runners that win more frequently than others? 3. Is previous winning form over the distance or further a prerequisite? 1. Firstly, in h'cap chases of 3m+ horses seemed to win from all over the handicap in the following orders: 1st (top rated) - 8 2nd - 4 3rd - 4 4th - 4 5th - 9 6th - 2 7th - 9 8th - 3 9th - 3 10th - 1 11th - 2 12th -1 In some cases there may have only been 6 or 7 runners and in such races it would have been impossible for a horse 10th in the handicap to win etc, but even so, the results above to me suggest there is no advantage to starting from any certain position in the handicap. At the same time, however, the results also suggest that it is not a disadvantage to carry top weight in a race. Take the Kim Muir at the Festival the other day for example, Character Building, in a field of 24 runners, carried 11-12 around on his way to victory. I also noticed a couple of horses winning from outside of the handicap. On the flat I would ignore such horses in the main, but here, will not. 2. With regards to price the winners could be grouped as follows: Up to 2/1: 8 9/4 - 4/1: 11 9/2 - 6/1: 10 13/2 - 10/1: 10 11/1+: 11 Horses are winning these staying chases from all across the market but I looked to see what the going was for those horses priced at 11/1+. It was as follows: Gd/Sft: 4 Sft: 1 Hvy: 6 So, as is commonly said, when the rain falls, the formbook goes out of the window a little, and large priced outsiders are more likely to go in. The exact prices of the 11 outsiders were 16/1, 12/1, 20/1, 12/1, 11/1, 14/1, 18/1, 14/1, 11/1, 25/1, 12/1 - the ones in bold are the ones with heavy ground. I also looked to see if the big priced winners occurred in large fields - when the races were very competitive and there were plenty of juicy outsiders available. The average field size for the 11 outsider winners was 13.27 and all but two of the outsider victories came in double figure fields. I think it is fair to say that in small fields the rags win far less often. Taking into account single figure fields only the prices of the winners are grouped as follows: up to 2/1: 5 9/4 to 4/1: 9 9/2 - 6/1: 2 13/2 - 10/1: 7 11/1+: 2 (11/1 and 12/1) So in small fields I will try to stay away from the big priced outsiders if possible, unless the going is heavy. In double figure fields, however, I will be open to backing horses at any price, especially if the going is heavy. 3. Is a horse is proven over the distance is it more likely to win? Of the 50 winners, 30 had won over the distance or further compared to 20 that had not. However, it is interesting to note that of those 20, 11 had won over a distance up to three furlongs below the distance they were contesting (e.g. had won over 24f for a 27f race etc) and that statistic of 82 % of runners having winning form up to a distance within 3f of the distance they are contesting seems quite decent to me. In the cases where a horse had not won within 3f of the distance in question, four had not won at all, and the other five were contesting marathon trips (numbers are distance of the race and the bracketed number is the dist over which they are proven) - 31f (22f), 33f (25f), 29f (24f), 30f (26f), 32f (25f). I think what we can basically deduce from this is that if a horse has not won over a distance of 3 miles or more, do not include it in analysis and if the race in question is over a marathon trip of around 30f+ then be a bit more lenient and still include horses if they have shown a tendency to stay by winning over a distance of at least 3m.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases These are the first lot of selections so we'll see how they get on. Just 10p stakes for me for now whilst I am trialling this as we go along! 3.35 Carlisle There are only six runners in the field and Teasured Memories (25f), Baker Flynn (24f) and Ikemba (26f) are the ones that have winning form around this 26f trip. However, Ikemba pulled up on his only start over fences so is ignored returning from a lengthy break. Treasured Memories has fallen on two of his four starts over larger obstacles and has been thrashed in handicaps recently. Even after another drop in his rating I can't back him at the tissue 7/2. Baker Flynn is an Irish import but remains a maiden after 13 starts under rules. I can't back him either. All three look dire in a terrible race, so a no bet in this! No bet 4.40 Carlisle

[RuleBritannia]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases Interesting stuff mate, and very well researched. Good Luck with this.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases 4.40 Carlisle Several have winning form around this trip but none make any appeal. I will be backing The Maystone in this race after a near miss last time out but I am trying to stick to the trends/stats above for the purposes of this thread, so no bet here too.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases

Interesting stuff mate, and very well researched. Good Luck with this.

Cheers RB, whether I can find a few winners with this I don't know, I've struggled with jumps for the past year or so hopefully specialising will see that change! :hope

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases 4.00 Fontwell (26f) The ones with winning form around this trip are Le Briar Soul (24f) Monzon (26f), George's Boy (26f), Peut Etre Sivola (26f), Finzi (30f) and Hazeljack (28f). Le Briar Soul's 3m win came in a beginners chase over a year ago. Has done little since and is passed over. Monzon is 7 lb higher than his last win but recent form is offputting - no bet. George's Boy only 1 lb higher than last win, which came in h'cap chase, but failed to complete twice since and tailed off last time. Hard to fancy. Peut Etra Sivola is 6lb higher than win in h'cap chase in nov '08 but was running in selling hurdles not too long ago. Ran respectably last time out but faded away but arrives in better form than some. Finzi is 2 lb lower than when winning at Bangor 13 months ago but has done little since and pulled up last time out. Hazeljack won over CD last March off 8 lbs lower but has won off much higher marks in chase handicaps in the past. He has ran credibly at both Towcester and Fontwell this year and stuck on last time to take second. He looks to have the best chance of any of these 'distance qualifiers'. I think Enroblim Trop could go well as the form of his second to Russian Tigger in the Kent National was boosted yesterday, but he hasn't actually won over further than 21f+ yet, so Hazeljack will be the bet. 1 pt win Hazeljack @ SP

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases 2.10 Southwell They go over 3m 110 yd, three have won over this sort of trip - Lease Back (24f), Gallik Dawn (28f) and CD winner Victor Daly. The latter makes the most appeal of that trio and could upset the big two yards with runners here - O'Neill and King. Victor Daly won over CD in April '08 but took to fences well, winning three of his six starts over them before being put away after pulling up at Perth 287 days ago. He makes his seasonal reappearance here but has gone well returning from mini breaks in the past and was improving between runs last year. Neither Sharajan or Twilight Eagle has won over fences yet so I am prepared to take them on with Heather Dalton's gelding who is likely to be around the 6/1 - 8/1 level. 1 pt win @ SP

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases 4.35 Navan Step Outside has won over fences over this trip but the one that I fancy more is Plaisir D'estruval, who won over 3m in a maiden on his debut. He won a beginners chase on heavy ground last time out and is open to plenty of improvement. L'Acajou, Mustangsallyrally, Rock Diplomat, Lochan Lacha, Bella Mana Mou and Bellflower Boy have all won over distances of or around 24f but I fancy Plaisir D'estruval who seems consistent and shaped with a good deal of promise last time out. 1 pt win @ SP.

[diamond1924]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases Excellent stuff Fintron, I use similar methods for all 4m races to reasonable effect. Good luck with it.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases

Excellent stuff Fintron' date=' I use similar methods for all 4m races to reasonable effect. Good luck with it.[/quote'] Thanks. The price has gone on Victor Daly. Was 6/1 last night with Bet 365, into 4's in most places now, and a best priced 9/2. My pick at Navan is a NR so I'll have Mustangsallyrally instead at 12/1 (Paddypower). Won over 25f recently and has recent placed form in handicap chases. Other prices I will now take instead of SP's....Victor Daly 9/2 Skybet, and 6/1 Hazeljack with SJ.

[devil tish]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases

Thanks. The price has gone on Victor Daly. Was 6/1 last night with Bet 365, into 4's in most places now, and a best priced 9/2. My pick at Navan is a NR so I'll have Mustangsallyrally instead at 12/1 (Paddypower). Won over 25f recently and has recent placed form in handicap chases. Other prices I will now take instead of SP's....Victor Daly 9/2 Skybet, and 6/1 Hazeljack with SJ.

blimey fin, burning the midnight oil 2.02am!!!!! best of luck with this:hope

[diamond1924]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases WOW, 1 from 1, three out I thought we were on to plums, but a bit of good fortune.

[billy the punter]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases

WOW' date=' 1 from 1, three out I thought we were on to plums, but a bit of good fortune.[/quote'] Yes, Victord Daly was a forunate winner with the two fallers making a big difference but no luck involved with the 2nd one...Hazlejack! Nice start fin. :ok :clap

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases

blimey fin, burning the midnight oil 2.02am!!!!! best of luck with this:hope

No pain no gain! I have been meaning to look into handicap chases for some time but never got round to it. I started last night and got carried away, once I started, I couldn't stop, but it was worth it as I had 4/1 (minus a 25p R4), 6/1 and 9/2 winners today so maybe it is something I should do more often!!! I honesty don't know how Billy and Ginge put in all the hours they do. Hopefully the info I found will continue to hold up and the groundwork for the thread has been done now......

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases

WOW, 1 from 1, three out I thought we were on to plums, but a bit of good fortune.

I would have taken a win by any means possible and we start as we mean to go on - in profit! I think these things even themselves out in the long run and I think I was owed a bit of good fortune after several seconds at the festival - Mirage Dore, Walkon, and especially Medermit who was definately very unlucky not to win at a massive price. Why can't every day be like this?!!

Yes, Victor Daly was a forunate winner with the two fallers making a big difference but no luck involved with the 2nd one...Hazlejack! Nice start fin. :ok :clap

Cheers Billy, I wasn't expecting two winners today at all, would have been happy with just the one but I took the money from the bookies (all £8 of it!) and ran. A pleasing start nonetheless, and that will pay for the next couple of weeks worth of singles.....and maybe another cheeky bet for the Lincoln. :)

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases There is only one 3m+ h'cap chase tomorrow and Bet 365 have early prices up now. 3.40 Hereford The runners with wins (distances in brackets) around this 31f trip are Martha's Kinsman (30f), Chabrimal Minster (30f), L'Aventure (30f), New Perk (28f), Gallik Dawn (33f) and Fine By Me (29f) as ten runners face the starter. Gallik Dawn bypassed an engagement today to take his place in this field but he failed to complete last time, as did Martha's Kinsman, Chabrimal Minster, New Perk and Fine By Me, so for that reason I am passing over all. Chabrimal Minster has Timmy Murphy booked and has been running in some decent races of late, pulling up in the Eider when last seen. Like Martha's Kinsman, he undoubtedly has the ability to win a race like this and both are five or six pounds higher than their last winning chase handicap mark. However, I think L'Aventure's last run was the most pleasing of those horses listed above and I have preference for her over Gallik Dawn, who is 7 lbs higher than his last win and was well beaten at Ludlow last time out. L'Aventure is a former Paul Nicholls inmate and she runs off a mark of 120 here, a 6 lb drop from last time out and a mark 11 lbs lower than her highest ever win. At ten she is an experienced chaser and finished second to Kilbeggan Blade in a decent Sandown chase in December off just 2 lb lower. The 4th (Bowleaze) has just placed at the Cheltenham festival, the 5th (Rambling Minster) has won both of his next two runs and the winner also won next time out, all in all giving the form a solid look about it. Although she fell at Cheltenham on New Years Day she finished a respectable fifth at Haydock in the Blue Square chase last time out when finishing behind Rambling Minster. However, many of the horses contesting that race were in action at the festival last week and I think this race is weaker even though the likes of Chabrimal Minster and Martha's Kinsman line up. 11/2 Bet 365, 1 pt win

[diamond1924]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases I'm on my last half hour of charge since my rabbit eat through the power cable (how didn't it fry?) so I don't have time to do my own analysis. I had already came up with Victor Daly myself for my raid on the jackpot at Southwell today (4 wins, one place, one nowhere) and out of curiosity I checked your other selections and put a pound trixie on so had a reasonable return for a fun bet, so thanks for your enthusiasm today. I've decided to narrow my approach a bit and try to concentrate in 5f sprints this summer and in the 3m+ events so I'll both try to follow your work and attempt to contribute some too when I have time (oppressive 60hr per week job). Good luck

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases

I'm on my last half hour of charge since my rabbit eat through the power cable (how didn't it fry?) so I don't have time to do my own analysis. I had already came up with Victor Daly myself for my raid on the jackpot at Southwell today (4 wins, one place, one nowhere) and out of curiosity I checked your other selections and put a pound trixie on so had a reasonable return for a fun bet, so thanks for your enthusiasm today. I've decided to narrow my approach a bit and try to concentrate in 5f sprints this summer and in the 3m+ events so I'll both try to follow your work and attempt to contribute some too when I have time (oppressive 60hr per week job). Good luck

Good work, it will be interesting to see if we come up with the same picks in the chases. I am thinking of specialising in nurseries for the forthcoming flat season (even though it makes me sound like Wacko Jacko). I think it is best to follow up and coming handicappers rather than ones on the decline, so nurseries seem the place to play :lol When I was looking through the cards last night I skipped the 4.50 as Taunton as it is listed as 2m 7f 110 yards. I forgot that they round that up to 3m, but have noticed in time and have a couple of picks in it. 4.50 Taunton 9 line up for this handicap chase over 24f and the ones with winning form around this trip (distances in brackets) are Night Safe (24f), Cava Bien (25f), Royal Hector (23f), I Hear Thunder (28f), Heart Springs (23f), Wild Ground (27f), Alcatras (26f) and Ede'iff (24f). Night Safe is 7 lbs higher than than when winning a h'cap chase at Lingfield in November but has pulled up and fallen on two subsequent runs so is passed over. Cava Bien runs off a mark of 115 as he looks for his first handicap win over fences. Tim Vaughan's horse won over hurdles off the same mark when last seen in May and does have a bit of form over fences too. He had a sticky debut at Exeter when 5th of 8 and always behind but put that experience to good use next time out when second to Le Burf in a novices event. He was outpaced 4 out but stayed on to take second and suggested this extra mileage would suit. Again he was outpaced but he was run over 2.5 miles again that day and may have wanted further. He then moved on to Tim Vaughan and since being stepped back up to this sort of trip the last twice he has won both starts. He is proven on this ground and having jumped well enough in the past he looks to have a chance. Deep Quest has boosted the form of this second to Le Burf and won in chase h'caps off 105 to put his mark into some sort of context. Cava Bien is 115 here but is open to improvement. Royal Hector has been running in hunters chases of late but did win at the track off 13 lb higher three years ago in a h'cap chase. He will probably get the trip but others appeal more to me as he returns to this sphere after a 3 year gap. I Hear Thunder has won off 11 lbs higher in the past but hasn't won for three years now. He is proven over 3m as well as over further but has been soundly beaten on recent runs. a 5 lb drop in his rating entitles him to fare better here but he's not the one for me. Heart Springs is 6 lbs higher than when winning at Stratford in May but has something to prove off the back of recent efforts and unseated rider last time out. Wild Ground Is 11 lbs higher than when successful at Fontwell in April but was second over CD last month off 2 lb lower. he was well beaten at Exeter last time out but he was tackling an extra 7f that day and the drop back in trip here should suit. He seems fairly progressive though and could still improve again. Alcatras won over CD in December 07 off 4 lb higher. He doesn't want the ground too soft but has won on GS recently, picking up a Wincanton h'cap chase off 89 last December, However, since his rating was put back up since he has struggled to make an impact even though he's had his ground, so I'm passing over. Ede'iff is the 33/1 rag here and won over this trip at Ludlow four years ago. More recent wins have come over 20f but were in hunter chases but she pulled up last time out and was also well behind Alcatras two starts ago. My two against the field: Cava Bien 9/4 Boyle - 0.67 pts Wild Ground 9/2 SJ - 0.33 pts

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases Cava Bien took a walk in the market but lived up to his name returning a 9/2 winner :nana 3.50 Exeter The ones with winning form around this 3m trip are Royal Hilarity (21f), Maree Hall (24f), Bold Punt (24f), Laudamus (23f) and Killing Me Softly (21f). Maree Hall won an Irish maiden four years ago but has been sparsely campaigned of late. He was placed off this mark in 2007 at Stratford but was well beaten on his last run and others appeal more. Bold Punt won an Irish maiden over this trip on his debut and has won over hurdles at Newcastle since. However he has pulled up on both starts over fences so is ignored. Killing Me Softly hasn't won since December 2005 in a handicap hurdle and is yet to score over fences. He was beaten by 68 lengths when last seen and racing from out of the handicap here he makes no appeal even after a 7 lb drop in his rating. The two that I am thus backing are Royal Hilarity and Laudamus. The former is 15 lbs higher than when winning at Folkestone in January but when raised in class and upped in the weights he struggled last time out off this mark. However, he is back down in grade here and looked to be improving prior to that run so a win may not be beyond him with only 9 chase starts to his name. Laudamus (nap) won a handicap hurdle at the course four years ago when taking full advantage of Timmy Murphy unseating at the last. He confirmed that he acts around here over the chase course too though, and battled gamely when going down by only a short head to Rosie All Over in December off a 5 lb lower mark. He hasn't won over fences yet but has several placed efforts to suggest he has ability and the only negative about him really is that he pulled up when last seen. He is turned out again fairly quickly, which may suggest nothing serious is wrong, and with some solid course form I'll back him, but will have the Peter Bowen runner too for added insurance. Suggested bets: Laudamus 9/1 Blue Square, 0.65 pt Royal Hilarity 15/2 Paddypower (bog), 0.35 pt

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases Laudamus is a NR, remaining stake to be split as follows: 0.25 pt EW on Royal Hilarity at 12/1 Blue Sq (EW 1/4 odds, 3 places) 0.15 pt win Royal Hilarity at 12/1 Blue Sq Already had 0.35 pt win on that selection with Paddypower already.

[RuleBritannia]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases

Cava Bien took a walk in the market but lived up to his name returning a 9/2 winner :nana 3.50 Exeter The ones with winning form around this 3m trip are Royal Hilarity (21f), Maree Hall (24f), Bold Punt (24f), Laudamus (23f) and Killing Me Softly (21f). Maree Hall won an Irish maiden four years ago but has been sparsely campaigned of late. He was placed off this mark in 2007 at Stratford but was well beaten on his last run and others appeal more. Bold Punt won an Irish maiden over this trip on his debut and has won over hurdles at Newcastle since. However he has pulled up on both starts over fences so is ignored. Killing Me Softly hasn't won since December 2005 in a handicap hurdle and is yet to score over fences. He was beaten by 68 lengths when last seen and racing from out of the handicap here he makes no appeal even after a 7 lb drop in his rating. The two that I am thus backing are Royal Hilarity and Laudamus. The former is 15 lbs higher than when winning at Folkestone in January but when raised in class and upped in the weights he struggled last time out off this mark. However, he is back down in grade here and looked to be improving prior to that run so a win may not be beyond him with only 9 chase starts to his name. Laudamus (nap) won a handicap hurdle at the course four years ago when taking full advantage of Timmy Murphy unseating at the last. He confirmed that he acts around here over the chase course too though, and battled gamely when going down by only a short head to Rosie All Over in December off a 5 lb lower mark. He hasn't won over fences yet but has several placed efforts to suggest he has ability and the only negative about him really is that he pulled up when last seen. He is turned out again fairly quickly, which may suggest nothing serious is wrong, and with some solid course form I'll back him, but will have the Peter Bowen runner too for added insurance. Suggested bets: Laudamus 9/1 Blue Square, 0.65 pt Royal Hilarity 15/2 Paddypower (bog), 0.35 pt

Losing bet, but crucially your stats take a boost as the 3rd (Killing me Softly 22/1) did have previous winning form as stated by yourself.

[Trotter]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases Good start Fin...........:ok See........change of scenery !........works wonders ! I'm just wondering if you've thought about not including 'Novice' handicaps in the 'system'..........on the basis that all 3 mile chasers will have to win over 3 mles for the first time at some point and that's likely to be in Novice races.......so by definition a lot of runners in novice races won't have yet won over 3 miles 'cos they're just starting out.......... Plus of course you get the unknown quantities like the one that won today that looked like it could have lapped them if ridden out.........

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases yes, thanks for the advice Trotter, it took me long enough to follow but I got there in the end! RB, I didn't think Killing Me Softly really stood much of a chance but it made the shortlist because it had won over a distance. Yet another example of a horse out of the handicap making the frame! This seems to happen more than I thought in NH racing, well, in the crappy handicaps anyway. My original bet was a NR today and the other horse I backed in that race finished a well beaten 4th. Tim Vaughan's unexposed French import dotted up, and you may have a good point about swerving novice handicaps Trotter. I'll have a look into the original stats and see how many of those 50 races were novice handicaps. There are two suitable races for tomorrow. Prince of Slane has been backed already so i'll post that up now just incase it is subjected to any more support ala Victor Daly the other day. The RP tissue has it much shorter than its current Bet 365 price and its been shortening up a little bit on the exchanges too. 4.00 Warwick 13 runners are declared for this race over 3m 5f. The ones with winning form around the trip are Beauchamp Prince (27f), Dillay Brook (26f), Prince of Slane (30f), Walton Way (26f) and Trading Up (27f). This looks a wide open race indeed and on Bet 365's early book, Beauchamp Prince is the current favourite. He picked up a handicap chase at Newton Abbot in August off 1 lb lower but has been struggling to make the frame in recent starts so a 5 lb drop in his rating will help. Although he has been running more consistently than some of these, and, in theory, his Newton Abbot win suggests he should handle this sharp, left-handed track, he did fall on his only start here and must improve on that tomorrow. I don't think he is a bombproof favourite and will pass over at the price. Dillay Brook is 8 lbs higher than when winning at Plumpton in November but did finish a decent second off only 1 lb higher at Lingfield later that month. She was well beaten at Leicester when last seen but a step back up in trip could see her in a better light. She also placed at the track on her debut in a NH flat race so looks one of the more likely ones. Walton Way runs from 2 lb out of the handicap but that may not inconvenience too much as he has won off a 20 lb higher rating in the past. However, he has been well beaten on recent starts and even after another 7 lb drop in his rating he is passed over. Trading Up is back down to his last winning mark but has something to prove on recent form and runs from 2 lb out of the handicap. Although a bit of a gamble himself, Prince of Slane is very well handicapped on the pick of his old form. Keith Reverley's gelding won off 27 lbs higher at Catterick in Jan '06 and although has failed to follow up since, he is dropped another 6 lbs in the weights after getting the closest he has come to winning for a long time last time out. He is a good ground horse so has his ideal conditions tomorrow and racing off a career low mark he may be able to snatch a place as he is a proven stayer. I've taken the 14/1 that was on offer earlier tonight (just to prove I'm not making it up.... http://img14.imageshack.us/img14/5568/princeofslane.jpg ) but that has now shortened up to 11/1 and it will be interesting to see how the other firms price him up in the morning. 0.5 pt EW.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases 3.15 Chepstow 17 runners line up for this class 4 chase handicap over three miles and the ones with winning form around the trip are Huckleberry, Laudamus, Deep Pockets, Extra Bold, Top Dawn, Tomillielou, Serengeti Sunset, Zimbabwe, Change Agent, Merry Storm, Carnt Spell, Major Belle and All Son Silver. Huckleberry carries top weight of 11-12 and is 7 lb higher than when winning a handicap chase at Wetherby in December. After pulling up at Doncaster two starts ago he bounced back to finish fourth at Bangor last time out and there could be more to come as he is only 7 and has just 9 chase starts to his name. He has won over 25f and got the job done well at Wetherby to suggest he may be able to defy a higher rating. He has won on ground ranging from GF to Sft so is versatile going wise. Two of those infront were rated 114 last time out so this drop back into 0-100 company could see him improve. Laudamus was withdrawn from the 3.50 at Exeter yesterday and although he is yet to win over fences he came close at Exeter in December when beaten by a short head. He pulled up when last seen so needs to bounce back now in what looks a tougher race than yesterday, and with Robert Walford replaced by a 7 lb claimer I am passing over. Deep Pockets won a handicap hurdle at Fontwell last April over 23f but is yet to win a handicap chase. He won a hunters chase on his debut three years ago but its hard to tell how good he may be now. He has won off 5 lb higher over hurdles and has the stamina to stay (proven over 26f). Extra Bold won a handicap chase at Exeter over this trip off 13 lb lower in May last year. He placed at Towcester off 1 lb higher in November but fell when last seen and may perhaps need another outing to regain his confidence. He is the current 9/2 favourite. Top Dawn is 7 lb higher than his last win but has something to prove after pulling up the last twice. Tomillielou won off 1 lb higher at Sedgfield in December '07 and was a fair fourth at Catterick in February off a higher mark too. However, he pulled up at Plumpton earlier this month. Serengeti Sunset won over this trip in an Irish maiden several years ago but has never really shown much over fences and is passed over. Perhaps his 10/1 price tag takes into account the trainer/jockey combo more than his recent form? Zimbabwe's mark is dropping nicely and he is over two stone lower than when winning at Leicester two years ago. He has shown bits of form since though and was only beaten by quarter of a length at Warwick off his current mark in November. He was a decent third last time out at Plumpton when leading before making a blunder, but he may want a little bit more cut to show his best. Change Agent won off 5 lb higher at Warwick four years ago and hasn't won since. However, this 13 yo has made a couple of pleasing runs in recent months, finishing 4th in Hereford handicap hurdle and then going down by only a length last time out back over fences at this track (6 lb lower that day). Although that came over 27f, he is proven over three miles too and was infact racing from 3 lb out of the handicap that day. This step back down in trip should suit and with two other solid bits of placed form at the course he is likely to go well at a price. Merry Storm has won off 13 lb higher in the past at Taunton several years but has been well beaten off this sort of mark in recent outings. The 5/1 for him is too short for me to get involved today. Carnt Spell is only 1 lb higher than when winning at Huntington in December 2007 and will strip fitter for his last run. A further 4 lb drop in the weights will help here but others appeal more. Major Belle has won off 11 lb higher at Market Rasen in 2007 and was rated 104 last time out yet is down to just 69 here. She hasn't shown much for a couple of years now though (although was 35 lbs out of the handicap last time out!) and is dismissed. All Son Silver won at the track over shorter in 2007 but also has winning form over this distance too. He is one of the more experience horses in the field and has won off 40 lbs higher in the past but is losing his ability now and was well beaten last time out at Leicester. His rating has dropped a stone as a result but he is another that likes to get his toe in and he would make more appeal on heavy ground. He races from 11 lb out of the handicap and is passed over. Suggested bets: I think there is the possibility that Huckleberry could improve again now he has regained his confidence by completing last time and together with Change Agent, who has perhaps the most solid course form in the field, they are my two main bets. Zimbabwe is another front runner that may contest the lead but despite slight reservations about the ground he seems pretty consistent and I will back him as a saver given how well handicapped he is on old form. Huckleberry 14/1 Bet 365 - 0.4 pt Change Agent 14/1 Bet 365 - 0.45 pt Zimbabwe 8/1 Bet 365 - 0.15 pt

[diamond1924]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases great stuff today again Fintron, I had a wee e/w double of Prince of Slane and Zimbabwe and quadrupled my money. I took Zimbabwe from the selections above due the handicap mark coming down, coupled with current form v. proven form over distance formula seemed best of the bunch. I think my new charger has arrived at home so i'll try to do some myself tonight.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases Thanks Diamond, good work with your double yesterday. Try to keep the rabbit away from this charger though! There are three jumps cards in the UK and Ire today but none contain a handicap chase over 3m+ so I think it is time to put up a thread selection for the National now. I have already backed Cornish Sett, Nine de Sivola and Surface to Air at in the past but those were placed before I started this thread so I'm going in with further picks based around stamina.

Grand National 2009 - Ante-post bet

This years national is to be run on the 4th of April over a gruelling 4m 4f at Aintree. There are still over a hundred runners listed on the RP card and we won't know for some time yet who is likely to make the final cut. Several horses were pulled out yesterday - the likes of Imperial Commander, Notre Pere, Madison du Berlais and Star de Mohaison, so that means the weights have gone up 5lb and it is looking like Snoopy Loopy is likely to carry top weight of 11-10. Firstly, I've used historical trends to whittle down the runners to a short-list. I know some of the trends are crude and not everybody's cup of tea but they help to narrow the list down to a more manageable level, otherwise it could take hours to study the form for all the runner. At the end of the day this is one of the races where luck in running is essential. You could spend a month going through all the form to find the strongest pick but then see it brought down at one of the fences through no fault of its own. For that reason I'm going mob handed instead of backing a couple each-way. As this is also the biggest race of the jumps season I'm having double stakes (2 pt) compared to normal. I have concentrated on runners:

• 8-12 yo
• Rated 135+ officially
• Carrying 11 st 5 lb or under
• Won a chase over 3m+
• Run in at least 10 chases
• Won a chase worth at least £17k.
• Have contested a previous national (Eng, Scot, Ire or Wal) but have not placed in last years national at Aintree
• Have placed in current season (I was lenient here and took the season to be the last 12 months)
• Non-french bred
• Run in last 42 days (Comply or Die just scraped in with this last year)

That narrows my list down to a more manageable level and the following meet most, if not all, of the above trends. I have then ordered them in a stamina rank, with the horses proven over the furthest distance at the top. <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" /> 1. = Butler's Cabin (33f) 1. = Hot Weld (33f) 3. Kilbeggan Blade (30f) 4. Chelsea Harbour (28f) 5. Darkness (27f) 6. =Black Apalachi (26f) 6. = Cloudy Lane (26f) 6. = Character Building (26f) 6. = Knowhere (26f) 10. = Always Waining (25f) 10. = Fundamentalist (25f) 12. Priests Leap (24f) Starting by going from the top of the list downwards ...... Butler's Cabin - Bechers proved to be his downfall last year as he made a mistake over that fence at the 6th and was travelling with the leaders when falling there at the 22nd. However, we was going well up to that point and that is the only time in 15 chase starts he has failed to complete. He won at the course in October 2006 (not sure if that was the national course or not?) and showed he stays all day long by picking up the Irish National in 2007, beating Nine de Sivola by a length. This term he has been running over inadequate trips and mixing racing over hurdles but put in his best effort of the current campaign last time out when fifth in the Kim Muir at the Festival last week which was his first start over fences since turning out in the Badger Ales Trophy in November. He hasn't placed this season though and at 11/1 I'd rather side with another that meets all trends convincingly. Hot Weld won the Scottish National in 2007 and was another to finish just ahead of Nine de Sivola. He followed that up with a Grade 3 win at Haydock later that month but has pulled up on both of his last two starts. He is infact a dual winner over 33f so has probably the strongest stamina credentials of those on the shortlist but I like to see a decent effort last time out to hint the horse is in good health. 50/1, but passing over. Kilbeggan Blade was number 63 when the intial weights came out but has been bumped up in the queue now with the withdrawls and could feasibly make the race. He has enjoyed a fantastic season with Tom George, winning on his reappearance in Towcester novices hurdle before winning a 30f handicap chase at Sandown. He's finished first and second on two other subsequent starts over hurdles and moves back into chases rated 11 lbs higher than his last win over fences. He's in great form and I'll definately have a little on this at the price (33/1). Chelsea Harbour was one of those I backed last year. He came 9th and ran a very good race and was bang in with a chance until fading in the last couple of furlongs. He has been heavily campaigned since and is weighted to get closer to Priest's Leap on recent Gowran form. He has been running over 3m and will probably appreciate this step up in trip. After running well for so long last year I'll have a little bit on this at 40/1 too. Darkness won at Newbury at the end of last month and that win has seen his price come in slightly for this (66/1 into 40/1). He's more lightly raced than some of these and is another that is likely to be well in come race day if he runs off 143. He was third in the RSA chase in 2006 and although makes a few jumping errors, is perhaps worth a little go at the price. Has won on both Gd and Sft ground. Black Apalachi fits all the trends and is prominent in the betting at 12/1. He needs soft ground but I'm wanting one bigger priced. Cloudy Lane was ante-post favourite for last years race and finished 6th. Has bounced back to win since but fell last time out. I'd rather see a horse complete last time out in a race like this. Character Building won the Kim Muir at the festival and is lightly raced and open to more improvement. A second to Butler's Cabin in the 2007 Festival shows he stays and maybe the heavy ground didn't suit when 9th in the Blue Square Gold Cup. Knowhere struggled with his jumping and was well beaten in the Gold Cup. Always Waining has pulled up on each of his last three starts, not for me. Fundamentalist wasn't fluent last time out and pulled up, so another no no. Priests Leap was well beaten at Naas following an 11 lb rise but is able to race of a lower mark here of 137, which is only 2 lb more than when he beat Chelsea Harbour. He's also had the beating of Black Appalchi in January last year so looks to have ability. He is least likely to stay of those on the short list but is 40/1 so I'll have a go. Final Selections Kilbeggan Blade - 33/1 Stan James, 0.36 pts Chelsea Harbour - 40/1 Stan James, 0.3 pts Darkness - 40/1 Coral, 0.3 pts Character Building - 14/1 Bet 365, 0.8 pts Priests Leap - 50/1 Sporting Bet, 0.24 pts

[devil tish]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases

Grand National 2009 - Ante-post bet Final Selections Kilbeggan Blade - 33/1 Stan James, 0.36 pts Chelsea Harbour - 40/1 Stan James, 0.3 pts Darkness - 40/1 Coral, 0.3 pts Character Building - 14/1 Bet 365, 0.8 pts Priests Leap - 50/1 Sporting Bet, 0.24 pts

great analysis and good luck m8:hope

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases

great analysis and good luck m8:hope

Cheers mate. Not long until the National now at all :nana Just the one bet for today. 4.35 Kelso Eight runners are in the field for this 0-135 handicap over 28f. The ones with winning form around the trip are According to John (25f), King Barry (25f), Hidden Bounty (25f), Mister Apples (26f), Panama at Once (25f) and Has Scored (26f). According to John carries top weight of 11-12 and won at the course in December 2006 in a novices chase over 23f. He has won over further over hurdles and contested in much better races than this, including when third in the 2007 RSA. He returned from a lengthy absence to finish a fair fourth last time out on his chase handicap debut, and he looked good over hurdles and there could be better to come in this sphere. King Barry is 9 lbs higher than when winning at Perth back in ‘06 but he has won more recently too, off 10 lb lower at Ayr in December over 25f. He was a respectable second at Doncaster off this mark last time out when racing in a higher grade but he was well held off this sort of mark in the past. Hidden Bounty races from 1 lb out of the handicap and is another yet to win in handicaps. The veteran has won a novices chase at the track and is weighted to get closer to King Barry on recent Kelso running as he is a stone better off for a 6 length beating. He finished 6th last time out in a competitive race at Haydock won by Coe and was outpaced after a mistake at the 14th. He has placed a couple of times off this sort of mark in handicaps but has little winning form to his name of late. Mister Apples is 6 lb higher than when winning at Cheltenham in October although he is 1 lb out of the handicap. As a winner over 26f he is more likely to see out this trip than some and he has been running credibly of late. A jumping error hampered his chances at Cheltenham when behind Hoopy and he raced in the rear at Sandown, however, racing up with the pace in the Kent National at Folkestone when last seen he fared much better and only faded away in the last few furlongs. He is dropped a 1 lb in the weights now and Charlie Huxley claims another 5 lb. Panama at Once is only 1 lb higher than when winning at Ayr earlier this month and has finished in the first two on all of his last four starts in handicap chases. All of those wins have come with cut in the ground but he also has won on GF so should cope with the going here. However, the form of his last win isn’t anything to get carried away about as only two of the four runners completed. He also made a hash of the last on his run prior to that. Has Scored is racing from well out of the handicap and is 7 lbs higher than his win at Carlisle a year ago. He’s pulled up on his last three starts and makes no appeal. All in all I am making Mister Apples my main bet as I think the drop back down in trip will help and if he can be ridden a bit more prominently then he could get involved. His possible undoing could be his handicap rating so I am also putting up another with less improvement to find - Panama At Once. His recent form may not be a strong as it appears at first glance but he is improving and well handicapped. At the price I'll have a little bit on that. As I was writing the favourite, According to John, was pulled out of the race and all of the firms bar William Hill have shortened up their prices. I don't think it is because they have been slow to react because AtJ is listed as a non-runner on their site and it is not possible to back him. Hopefully they are just sticking their necks out and offering a bit of value. If they aren't and they end up applying a R4, i'll notify in my post tomorrow. Mister Apples 9/1 William Hill 0.75 pt Panama at Once 7/1 William Hill - 0.25 pt

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases William Hill are STILL offering 9/1 for this Mister Apples even though its trading at 7/1 on the exchanges. An ideal trading opportunity if even you saw one and you have money to deposit into Betfair to cover the liability.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases Mister Applies travelled very well throughout, it was a solid display of jumping and he was always going well behind the leader, Stagecoach Diamond, who was not proven to stay to the same degree as Mister Apples. When he the front he found plenty under pressure to be driven out to win, a fine ride again by Charlie Huxley, and he returned a 9/1 winner (minus a 25p R4). Panama at once was let down by his jumping. I have several bets for tomorrow. Prices are avil at Newbury so ill post this one now. 2.20 Newbury <?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />

13 runners will face the starter for this 3m handicap chase for horses rated 0-140. The ones with winning form around the trip are Alderburn (24f), Strawberry (24f), Theatre Dance (24f), Kandjar D'Allier (24f), King Harald (32f), Tom Sayers (28f), <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" />MountOscar (24f), Alexanderthegreat (26f), Verasi (26f), My Immortal (26f), Lyes Green (26f), Cava Bien (25f) and Antonius Caesar (24f).

Alderburn is 4 lbs higher than when winning over course and distance a year ago but hasn't won since. he disappointed when a distant 7th last time out but prior to that had finished third three times in a row off this sort of mark or higher, including in a decent listed race at Ascot in December when sent off at 6/1 and beaten by less than four lengths. He is a good ground horse so well relish tomorrows conditions so would have a chance if able to put behind him his last run.

Strawberry is 6 lbs higher than when winning over this trip at Kempton last month and wasn't beaten far off this mark last time out at Fontwell when dropped back in trip. She jumped well that day and stepping back up to a distance over which she is proven she looks to have a good chance, especially since he is a course winner. She's versatile ground wise.

Theatre Dance won a beginners chase over this distance at Chepstow last time out but is yet to make his mark in handicap company. He finished well ahead of Russian Tigger in a novices chase at Exeter though and that rival has won two chase handicap since, the latter off 132, to put his rating of 134 into some sort of context. David Arbuthnot's gelding only has the three chase runs to his name but its improving with every run and looks open to further improvement.

Kandjar D'Allier has won a couple of times over course and distance, the latest off 5 lb lower in November but he did win off his current mark of 132 several years ago over CD. Whether he is still able to win off his current mark now though is open to debate as he tailed off when racing off only 3 lbs higher over CD in January.

King Harald is the real stayer of the field proven over 4m having won at Doncaster in Feb '08. He is 5 lb higher now but hasn't shown much in two starts this year and may be best watched for now.

Tom Sayers won off his current mark of 130 at Wincanton in October 2007 but pulled up on his only start this year when last seen so is passed over.

MountOscar has won over hurdles but not yet over fences. He was a close second in a novices chase at Kempton when last seen and runs off a mark of 127 for this. its hard to tell whether that is fair as none of those finishing around him have won in handicaps yet, but on the basis of his 11th of 18 at Kempton in a chase handicap two starts ago, he is passed over.

Alexanderthegreat is 9 lbs higher than when winning at Cheltenham in April '07 but hasn't won since. He ran a cracking race at that same course on New Years Day but it was over further and he may be possibly suited by a longer trip than three miles. He was also behind Alderburn at Newbury a couple of years ago and has work to do to reverse that form on these terms.

Verasi has pulled up on all of his last four starts so is passed over.

My Immortal won a novices chase at Kelso a couple of years ago but has something to prove off the back of recent efforts.

Lyes Green won a beginners chase at Hereford in December and was a decent second to Jass at Doncaster the following month in a handicap. However, the grey pulled up in the Kent National when last seen so has a little to prove after that.

Cava Bien was one I backed earlier in the week at Taunton and he ran out the winner over the same trip that day. he goes under a 7 lb penalty as a result of that win and is looking for the fourtimer. However, this race represents his toughest assisgnment yet and he had to be right on his toes to fend off I Hear Thunder last time out so I'm taking on in this better race.

Antonius Caesar won a novices chase at Huntingdon in Jan '08 but hasn't won since. He runs off 120 here and has been knocking on the door of that sort of mark in recent starts. However, this race also represents a step up in class for him.

Suggested bets:

Theatre Dance 13/2 Bet 365 - 0.7 pt

Strawberry 7/1 Bet 365 - 0.2 pt

Alderburn 16/1 Ladbrokes - 0.1 pt