Fintron's Jumps Thread - 2010/11

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases Peut Etre Sivola was unplaced today. It was impossible to tell how he ran with thick fog limiting visibility and causing the meeting to be later abandoned. 3.30 Sandown (Saturday) - London National Rambling Minster - Haydock win at Haydock in April saw his odds contract for the National but he pulled up in the big race at Aintree. Although 11 and open to less improvement than some, could still be handicapped for more improvement; only 3 lbs higher than Haydock win. Fifth in this race last year, previous course winner too. Has the stamina to stay and acts on slow ground. Faced impossible task in the Betfair chase against superior rated opposition, this more his level back in handicaps. Hoo La Baloo - experienced chaser that has done much of his racing over shorter, but was placed over CD in April last year (btn 5l off 13 lb higher) and is another that has won here over shorter. Perhaps not as likely to stay (won up to 25f) as some but could come on for last run. Russian Trigger - progressive chaser for Victor Dartnall, has won 2-5 over fences and winner of the Midlands National off 8 lbs lower in March. Fair fourth to Gallant Nuit at Cheltenham on comeback, latest, and will strip fitter for run. His wins in Midlands and Kent Nationals (latter at Folk in Feb) prove he loves a marathon test of stamina, has no course experience but has won RH before. No surprise to see more improvement. Hennessy - Won Bet 365 Gold Cup chase over CD when last seen in April and after only six starts over fences could defy 6 lb higher mark if tuned up after break. Won first time out last season, has won on soft ground previously. Irish Raptor - yard been in good form this season and horse only 5 lb higher than last win at Aintree in April. Experienced chaser that needs a career best to win here, a little inconsistent, unseating on comeback, others look more likely winners. Kilbeggan Blade - won this race last season and has dropped back down to a mark only 1 lb higher than that day. Has been out of form in recent runs though and went into last years race off the back off a recent win. Was well held in a veterans race when last seen and passed over despite attractive looking mark. Eric's Charm - hasnt won beyond 25f, but third to Kilbeggan Blade in this last year and 7 lbs lower now. Has placed multiple times at the track but well held at Wincanton when last seen, even if entitled to need run. Never So Blue - has only won up to 26f but 6-13 over fences and 10 length beating of Coe at Haydock reads well (off 9 lb lower). Not disgraced at Cheltenham when fourth, last time out, and bumped into a superbly handicapped rival (Razor Royale) and could have more to offer. Lorum Leader - proven up to 25f, won at Market Rasen last time out but raised 8 lb and in tougher race here. Worth a go at this longer trip, but not guaranteed to get it. Russian Trigger 4/1 Paddypower, 0.9 pt Rambling Minster 9/1 Ladbrokes, 0.1 pt (saver)

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases 3.15 Wetherby (Sat) Gripit And Tipit - won a beginners chase at Limerick a couple of years ago over shorter but yet to win in handicap company. Was credible second to Badgerlaw in listed chase at Cork in April but doesnt look fantastically handicapped now, well held on reappearance, debut for new yard now. Sherwood's Folly - winner over three miles and on heavy ground but none of those in handicap company and preferred engagement tomorrow is at Chepstow. Bannister Lane - strong stayer that is proven beyond the 25f they tackle here, including on heavy going. 4 lb higher than last handicap win, yard going well, should be there or therabouts. Flake - experienced chaser and local yard are in decent enough form of late, but horses best form has come over shorter. Only 2 lbs higher than last win though so not handicapped out of this. Malko de Beaumont - back down to last winning mark but all of form in 2009 suggests he is on the downgrade now and hard to fancy. Laborec - won a claiming hurdle at this track last time out. Was a credible second on his sole start over fences a year ago and mark seems about right judging by his hurdles form. Unproven on ground slower than soft. Canada Street - course and distance winner than is 5 lbs lower now and arrives back in West Yorkshire in good form having kept on over shorter when fourth at Kelso last time out. Testing ground no problem and Howard Johnson in good form. Was, however, well held by Dawn Ride over this trip over CD in March (22 lb better off tomorrow though). Dawn Ride - has won three chases from five runs here in '09, including two over course and distance. He is up 6 lbs for a 7 lb win ten days ago so a career best needed now up in grade, but very much respected due to CD form. Canada Street 4/1 Paddypower, 0.75 pt Dawn Ride 3/1 Bet 365, 0.25 pt (saver).

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases

Bet	Date	Course	Selection	Advised	SP	Position	Profit
93.	4/11/09	Warwick	Fourpointone	7/2 b 365, 1 pt	6/1	4/8	-1
94.	7/11/09	Wincanton	Beat The Boys	11/1 0.5 win/0.3 place	17/2	PU	-1
			Kilcrea Asla	20/1 0.05 pt	16/1	9/18
			Valley Ride	11/1, 0.1 pt	10/1	11/18
95.	8/11/09	Limerick	Away We Go	10/1 0.5 pt EW	12/1	2/13	+1
96.	12/11/09	Cheltenham	Mister Apple’s	16/1, 0.45 pt EW	10/1	3/15	+7.9
			Razor Royale	9/1, 0.1 pt	12/1	1/15
97.	13/11/09	Cheltenham	Don’t Push It	15/2, 0.5 pt	15/2	2/12	-1
			Maljimar	8/1, 0.5 pt	9/1	5/12
			Lacdoudal	14/1, 0.1 pt	20/1	7/12
98.	15/11/09	Fontwell	BallyGalley Bob	9/2, 0.5 pt EW	6/1	PU	-1
99.	15/11/09	Market Rasen	Zimbabwe	5/2, 1 pt	11/4	3/7	-1
100.	15/11/09	Cork	Garryowen Star	12/1, 0.5 pt	8/1	4/12	-1
			GlennquinnCastle	20/1, 0.05 pt	8/1	2/12
			Classic Frontier	20/1, 0.35 pt	8/1	5/12
			Bellflower Boy	12/1, 0.1 pt	8/1	9/12
101.	22/11/09	Navan	Away We Go	16/1, 0.5 pt EW	12/1	7/21	-1
102.	19/11/09	Wincanton	Triggernometry	13/2, 0.5 pt EW	11/1	PU	-1
103.	20/11/09	Ascot	Out The Black	11/1, 0.5 pt EW	8/1	5/11	-1
104.	21/11/09	Haydock	Shining Gale	4/1, 1 pt	7/2	1/11	+4
105.	23/11/09	Ludlow	Wizard’s Dust	11/2, 1 pt	3/1	1/5	+5.5
106.	24/11/09	Sedgefield	Finbin	11/2, 0.2 pt	7/1	PU	-1
			Ya I Know	17/2, 0.4 pt EW	12/1	4/12
107.	24/11/09	Lingfield	Dusk	10/3, 0.8 pt	5/1	PU	-1
			Portrait Royale	4/1, 0.2 pt	5/1	2/10
108.	28/11/09	Newbury	Offshore Account	40/1, 1 pt win/0.5 pt place	40/1	UR	-2
			My Will	33/1, 0.25 EW	28/1	7/19
109.	28/1109	Newcastle	Zitenka	12/1, 0.5 pt EW	16/1	F	-1
110.	4/12/09	Exeter	Peut Etre Sivola	4/1, 1 pt	4/1	5/11	-1
111.	5/12/09	Sandown	Russian Trigger	4/1, 0.9 pt	10/3	PU	-1
			Rambling Minster	9/1, 0.1	14/1	PU
112.	5/12/09	Wetherby	Canda Street	4/1, 0.75 pt	7/4	2/7	-1
			Dawn Ride	3/1, 0.25 pt	4/1	UR

Thread Stats

No. of bets: 112

Pts staked: 112.85

Profit/loss: +12.46

ROI: +11 %

Its been a while since the last update, when no big winners other than savers were found. Pleasingly there have been some winners this time around but there have also been plenty of selections that are failing to complete and I hope that will change in the next update. Zitenka, Russian Trigger, Triggernometry and Offshore Account are just four examples of progressive chasers I have put up but have failed to complete. Of those that have ran I'm satisfied with how they are running. Canada Street was beaten into second yesterday and Don't Push It came close at Cheltenham. Portrait Royale wasn't beaten that far into second either and although the profit in this update is negligable I think I am now getting an idea where I stand with this after 100 bets. If I can keep the ROI above ten percent then I will be happy, that is a lower target than that identified previously but is more realistic IMO.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases 1.50 Cheltenham This televised handicap chase looks high class indeed and although he unseated his rider in the Hennessy I am willing to give another chance to Offshore Account. This is a horse that is potentially well treated now handicapping in my opinion and racing from within the handicap proper this afternoon he could go well if staying on his feet. He unshipped DJ Casey at the first at Newbury and was never able to run a race having been bumped in the approach to the fence, but the trainer was making the right noises ahead of that race and I am taking a chance at the price. The booking of Denis O'Regan catches the eye. 22/1 William Hill, 0.5 pt EW (3 places, 1/4 odds).

[mileni4uk]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases My only problem with this fella is that they're saving him for the National. If that's the case, then they had nice 7lbs off after the Hennessy. Could they be trying to get off few more? If he was so well in the weights, why is he 22/1? Hate to back such horses knowing they might have other targets on their agenda.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases

My only problem with this fella is that they're saving him for the National. If that's the case' date=' then they had nice 7lbs off after the Hennessy. Could they be trying to get off few more? If he was so well in the weights, why is he 22/1? Hate to back such horses knowing they might have other targets on their agenda.[/quote'] To be honest I think the price is due to his lack of recent racing and the fact he unsteated at the last in the Hennessy rather than because of an unrealistic handicap mark. But I am prepared to look beyond that as he has apparently been working well at home and was bumped approaching the first which caused his back end to lose balance when he unshipped Casey at Newbury. My personal estimation is that he has a stone in hand of the handicapper if able to reproduce his 2007 form - that it is quite a big if - but his 2007 chase form surpasses that of a 140-rated chaser and at 22/1 I thought it was a risk worth taking At Punchestown was second to subsequent listed and G2 (150 rated) winner Knight Legend. At Naas had subsequent 136-rated winner Priests Leap behind as well as subsequent 132-rated winner Hear The Echo 8 lengths back (did get 5 lb off that one). At the Punchestowns festival then showed improvement to beat Knight Legend by 11 lengths. Some will say he was a lucky winner as he was left in the lead at the last but he was only one length off the leader anyway. Back in third and fourth that day were One Cool Cookie and Snowy Morning. The former is rated around 150 and has won a couple of chases earlier this year and the latter is comfortably 150+ over chases. To me, his profile since smacks of a horse that is being kept back for another big race. After his Punchestown Grade 1 win he came over to Haydock for the Betfair chase and unseated. It was hot company so fair enough, no disgrace there, and the only time he has stepped away from hurdles since has been to compete in the National (jumped well for some way before fading) and then in the Hennessy last time - so its looks like they feel he can scoop a big chase prize off this mark. It wouldn't suprise me if they went for the National with him again as they had built National type fences for him to jump over at home in the build up the this years race, but off 141 I still think he could be handicapped to win one race en-route to Aintree if that is the target. If he went up to 150 or so he'd still get in off a good weight and they could keep running him over hurdles in the meantime. He will benefit from this step up in trip judging by the form of his last completed start when outpaced over shorter behind Beroni (form franked since in Troytown). The other thing is he has won on undulating and testing tracks previously and acts left handed. The question marks that remain looks to be his jumping/fitness IMO.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases Grand National Ante-post To go with previous national bets on Arbor Supreme, Niche Market and Hello Bud in the thread I'll have 0.25 pt win on Offshore Account at 50/1 (Bet 365), on the offchance he runs a good race at Cheltenham tomorrow. He is likely to fit many of the trends for the National as he has previous experience of contesting a National and has shown a touch of class and won a valuable chase back in 2007 in Ireland when landing a Grade 1 at Punchestown.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases A second bet from Chelters for today... 1.15 Cheltenham Mr Big - credible fourth over course and distance in a cross country chase last month and has a massive pull in the weights with some of those today now running in a handicap. Was giving weight to Heads On The Ground and Sizing Australia whilst only being in receipt of 8 lbs from Garde Champetre. Today he gets a whopping 24 lbs from the last named and is 8 lb better off with the other two. He has progressed nicely this season and showed during that run he can mix it off this sort of weight in this company. Cheltenham is a bit closer to home than the Czech Republic where he was a visitor several runs ago, and I think he has each-way claims at a price. 20/1 Hills, 0.5 pt EW (4 places, 1/4 odds).

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases The last two at Cheltenham were both losers. 2.20 Haydock 3m handicap chase run on soft ground on this left-handed, galloping chase course. Jaunty Flight is 3-4 in this sphere, all races have been in novice company. Has shown he handles LH, galloping tracks and having hacked up on a couple of occasions is interesting on this handicap debut. Rated 143, was a winner off 130 over hurdles. Worry is his 241-day break. Exmoor Ranger - 3-7 over fences and winner at Newbury when dropped back in trip, latest. Has won a beginners chase at Exeter over todays trip of three miles, and looks talented on his good days. Fell in this years Jewson on only third chase run but no surprise to see him involved again even if up 7 lb for last win. Regal Heights - only 2 lb higher than Ascot win last February but has a bit to prove off back of recent efforts. Has failed to complete on both of last two runs. Can't Buy Time - 12 lbs higher than last win from January, placed in the festival in strong stayers race before falling in the National. Last seen in valuable Ascot chase on reappearance when early blunder put pay to his chances. Could be in the mix. Jass - strong stayer victories over 4 miles in Doncaster handicap in January. 12 lb higher now but a pulled up effort in the Eider aside, hasn't been disgraced in two other runs since. Shaped as if wanting more thorough test of stamina when behind Beat The Boys, latest. The Sawyer - likeable front runner that ran well behind Razor Royale at Cheltenham recently but unsuited on last start when sent off 9/2 fav at Ascot. 4 lbs higher than last win so handicapped to have a chance, but lacks the potential for progression of most. Course winner. Pretty Star - another experienced chaser but has been holding his form well recently and rasied 2 lbs for narrow defeat at Ascot last time out. Kim Muir second that would not be winning out of turn. The Vicar - course winner that has only run in 7 chases to date, the win coming over 2m 4f here in novices event. PU in Jewson since and wasn't disgraced over course and distance last time out when perhaps suggesting he'd come on for the run. Looks well handicapped on his previous course win formline and no surprise to see go well under Graham Lee. Akilak - 5 lb higher than last win (over shorter) and stamina to prove with all wins coming up to 20f. Valley Ride - 7 lb higher than win in valuable M'Ras chase in September, fell last time out at Ascot and others preferred. Palypso de Creek - recruited from france and has mixed both codes throughout career. Has won over hurdles over this trip and soft ground will suit fine. Faded on the run in in the becher handicap at Aintree last time out so may appreciate drop back in trip. Possibilities. Mark The Book - maiden over fences. Has won over trip over hurdles but could have been found an easier opportunity to break chase maiden tag. Nirvana Swing - trainer Sue Smith does well here and horse won recently at Market Rasen over shorter. Career best needed to take this off 5 lb higher and others look stronger stayers. I'moncloudnine - failed to justify favouritism when second to Strawberry at Fakenham when last seen but progressive chaser 4-7 now and facile Aintree win when romping home by 17-lengths reads well. 9 lbs higher that that mark having been raised 2 lb upon latest second but further improvement not ruled out. Malko de Beaumont - races from 3 lb out of the weights (although 5 lb apprentice booked) but only 1 lb higher than when winning this last year. Went into the race that year in some sort of form though and record this time not as convincing. Bets: The Vicar 12/1 Bet 365, 0.5 pt win/0.25 pt place (3 places, 1/4 odds) I'moncloudnine 8/1 WH, 0.12 pt (saver) Pretty Star 9/1 Bet 365, 0.13 pt (saver)

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases The last lot of bets were all non runners - meeting abandoned. 2.10 Chepstow - Welsh National

Mon Mome 12 lb higher than National win. PU in Hennessy, third over hurdles latest.
Halcon Genelardais Relishes a marahton slog and dropped 4 lbs upon last run when fourth in Betfair chase. Second off 164 in this last term and btn head off 156 in 2007 so looks well handicapped again here with conditions know to suit.
The Tother One Has winning form up to 3m, second in Badger ales off 6 lbs lower. Open to more improvement and credible second behind the Package at Cheltenham last time out. Won bumper here on debut.
Nozic Won up to 25f, course winner and acts on heavy but more exposed than some and recent form offputting, even if 1 lb below last win.
Gone To Lunch Decent sort, stayed on when beaten in Hennessy over shorter and some good form last term including second in Scots National and second to Punchestown behind Rare Bob. Dropped 2 lb from last run, putting him only 1 lb higher than Scots Nat second.
Miko De Beauchene 2007 winner off stone lower. Credible third in Blue Sq Gold Cup at Haydock since when behind Coe, has won off 5 lb lower. Handles heavy, seems to have lost way lately though.
Kornati Kid never won beyond 25f. not yet won h'cap chase. Has some decent novice form but needs to raise game to figure in hot race like this.
Ballyfitz Winner up to 25, fourth in Paddypower before pulling up in Hennessy. Has dropped 4 lb in this sphere since so looks well handicapped but has stamina to prove. Recent win over hurdles will have sharpened him up, has won on undulating track previously.
Le Beau Bai hacked up at track recently, has won up to 29f too. Looks well in under penalty and goes on heavy, big player although never won in company this hot.
Hello Bud 9 lb higher than Scots National win last year, credible third at Cheltenham recently and stays well. Looks stable string on jockey bookings, has won on heavy though.
Dream Alliance Hennessy second back in 2007 but form since patchy however bounced back from lengthy break for second when last seen. If doesnt bounce, can go well off decent looking mark.
Iris De Balme Scots National winner in '08 to go with win in Kent National - underlines staying credentials. Decent fourth at Sandown latest when not get race run to suit but 611-day break to overcome here.
Cornish Sett Badger Ales winner in 2007 but exposed and done little since.
Flintoff Moved from Venetia Williams to Tim Vaughan and third in Scots National off 3 lb higher last season. Second in Midlands Grand National latest and has won on undulating and on heavy. has won up to 3m
Operation Houdini UR in Troytown but bounced back to win over hurdles since. Has won up to 25f, has won off 123 back home in Ire, rated 16 lb higher now but not ruled out.
Coe Progressive chaser carrying the colours of Trevor Hemmings. Has won up to 28f at Haydock and decent second to Rambling minster with Miko du Beauchene back in third in valuable Haydock chase in January. Has been knocking on the door of late and raised 4 l
Kilbeggan Blade London National winner last December that pulled up in the National and hasnt been at his best since. Has been dropping down the handicap but well held in London National last time out this year and needs to raise his game.
Silver By Nature Raised 13 lb for comfortable Carlisle win latest which suggests may take to undulating track like this. Others appeal more but open to more improvement.
Old Benny Winner of Nat. Hunt Cup at 2008 festival and credible fourth in Scots National thereafter. Had a massive break but dropped sharply in handicap and finished midfield at Newbury last time. May need longer to reach peak again, or may be superbly handicapped,
Zacharova 7 lb higher than last win but open to more improvement. An Unrealiable sort now though so passed over, racing from 2 lbs out of the handicap (although claimer booked to offset that handicap). Bets: Halcon Genelardais 12/1 Hills, 0.28 pt Coe 15/1 Hills, 0.24 pt Gone To Lunch 16/1 Tote (bog) (saver), 0.08 pt Le Beau Bai 5/1 Hills (saver), 0.2 pt Iris de Balme 33/1 Bet 365 (saver), 0.05 pt The Tother One 6/1 Bet 365, 0.15 pt (saver)

__________________

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases error on the RP site RE prices...Halcon is actually 10/1, but dont wanna edit orig post.

[Treviticus]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases Halcon, Benny, Miko, Bud & Cornish for me. Thanks for keeping the thread going Fin - Always happy to look in and see what you think.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases Was a bit disappointed with the last lot as Coe was going quite well before a late jumping error saw him off. Le Beau Bai stayed on well from further back, but all too late, and a losing bet overall. 1.05 Cheltenham The form of the Badger Ales is working out well so Nenuphar Collonges has to be of interest as one of the few here proven at the track as well. Has won here over hurdles and was third in the William Hill this year off 2 lb lower. Yard going well and looks a fair price. 9/1 Hills, 0.5 pt EW.

[diamond1924]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases very late n/r Fin:sad

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases d'oh. Who do you fancy Diamond?

[diamond1924]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases race has cut up badly, don't have have time to go back through them all now mate. I'm going out soon for dinner so just going to give it a miss now. Tripitaka on Sunday at Kempton mate, Callan on board.

[diamond1924]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases looks like the race might not happen at all now, inspection taking place.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases Its been a while. Shame I didn't take the advice on Tripitaka Diamond, hacked up and looks decent! 3.30 Taunton Deep Pockets won at this track over the hurdles course last time out but has won over fences elsewhere and is possibly open to a bit more improvement in this sphere after 12 starts. Stayed this trip and beyond when placed at Stratford at the back end of last season and could go well. 6/1 Bet 365, 1 pt

[diamond1924]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases double whammy Wayne, the second, Patkolos won yesterday too to frank form. good luck with the selection tomorrow, just had a look at the race and have the same selection so fingers crossed.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases Deep Pockets drifted like a barge and pulled up yesterday. 3.30 Haydock A field of twelve have been declared for the 2010 running of the Peter Marsh chase, with last years victor CLOUDY LANE bidding to defend his crown for Donald McCain. Donning the distinctive colours of Trevor Hemmings the gelding races off a mark only 1 lb higher than when successful twelve months ago, and will strip fitter for his last run at Kelso - his first outing since unseating his rider at the Chair in the 2009 Grand National. He could run a big race but in what promises to be a fiercely contested contest, Fortification, According to Pete, Jaunty Flight and Prince du Beauchene also deserve a mention. The first named hacked up on his first start for Nigel Hawke to record his fourth successive victory as he has risen through the handicap ranks, and although up 12 lbs for his latest romp, he cannot be safely ruled out even now up in grade, given his recent progression. According To Pete has won around the hurdles track here and recorded a credible fifth in a listed race at Cheltenham last time out. He drops 2 lbs in the weights and looks set for further glory at some point in the not so distant future, a comment that similarly applies to Jaunty Flight, who is 3-4 in chases, makes her handicap debut over fences but who has been off the track since April and thus may be better for the race. Prince du Beauchene is a fascinating entrant from the yard of Howard Johnson, who is enjoying a hot run of form at present. This half-brother to Miko du Beauchene was narrowly defeated over fences at Carlisle on his UK debut over fences, but he has previous winning chase form from his time in France and he is dangerous to rule out. Our Vic and Jass are useful chasers when on song but the latter inparticular has something to prove off the back of a flat run at Cheltenham, despite the excellent form of trainer Keith Reveley, and a more livelier danger from the bottom of the weights may be Palypso de Creek who was a Grade 3 chase winner during his time in France and shaped as if this step back in trip would suit when finishing mid-field in the Becher Chase. He races from 6 lb out of the handicap though and is a bit of a dark horse, so for the winner I’m returning to Cloudy Lane. Cloudy Lane 13/2 SJ, 0.75 pt Palypso de Creek 16/1 SJ, 0.25 pt

[mileni4uk]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases Are you backing Offshore Account dropped in trip today, mate?

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases

Are you backing Offshore Account dropped in trip today' date=' mate?[/quote'] Now you've pointed out he's running I will! Haven't checked my emails so missed the horse tracker alert. I am running out of patience with him now, I still think he is well handicapped on his old form but how many chances can you give him? Like you say though, the drop back in trip could prove key. He was travelling okay at Cheltenham before he ran out of gas up the hill and disappeared out of the picture completely, but his jumping in the main seemed solid enough and he went with the leaders for the best part of the race before his stamina seemed to give? What do you reckon? I've had just a small each-way bet on him today, won't include it in this thread though due to the distance.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases I don't know what to make of him with this drop in trip. He was supposed to be 3m+ horse. I think he is well handicapped, but starting to be very disappointing now.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases Yeah, I am starting to think he may be unable to recapture his old form too. I think a small bet today can be justified in the hope a step back in trip may help. Its a bit weird to say that considering he was supposed to be aimed at the national but he didn't stay last time - perhaps he also wasnt suited to the track though a little and is one of those that acts elsewhere away from Cheltenham? If he was back to his best form he should be going very close off this sort of mark so if he fails to impress today then I'll give up on him.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases I learned not to chase horses and it's frustrating when they win and you're not on. If some money come for him I would have a small nibble and neglect my value betting with the 14/1 at Lads looking nice at the mom :lol

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases argh, just cant find a winner at the minute. Palypso de Creek drifted out to 33s but belied his price by running a huge race into second, just couldnt go with the old boy Our Vic. He is handicapped to win races and a trip of three miles looks ideal for this former Grade 3 winner in France. Cloudy Lane was ridden off the pace and struggled to go with the leaders, who raced prominent throughout. Disappointing.

3.30 Haydock A field of twelve have been declared for the 2010 running of the Peter Marsh chase, with last years victor CLOUDY LANE bidding to defend his crown for Donald McCain. Donning the distinctive colours of Trevor Hemmings the gelding races off a mark only 1 lb higher than when successful twelve months ago, and will strip fitter for his last run at Kelso - his first outing since unseating his rider at the Chair in the 2009 Grand National. He could run a big race but in what promises to be a fiercely contested contest, Fortification, According to Pete, Jaunty Flight and Prince du Beauchene also deserve a mention. The first named hacked up on his first start for Nigel Hawke to record his fourth successive victory as he has risen through the handicap ranks, and although up 12 lbs for his latest romp, he cannot be safely ruled out even now up in grade, given his recent progression. According To Pete has won around the hurdles track here and recorded a credible fifth in a listed race at Cheltenham last time out. He drops 2 lbs in the weights and looks set for further glory at some point in the not so distant future, a comment that similarly applies to Jaunty Flight, who is 3-4 in chases, makes her handicap debut over fences but who has been off the track since April and thus may be better for the race. Prince du Beauchene is a fascinating entrant from the yard of Howard Johnson, who is enjoying a hot run of form at present. This half-brother to Miko du Beauchene was narrowly defeated over fences at Carlisle on his UK debut over fences, but he has previous winning chase form from his time in France and he is dangerous to rule out. Our Vic and Jass are useful chasers when on song but the latter inparticular has something to prove off the back of a flat run at Cheltenham, despite the excellent form of trainer Keith Reveley, and a more livelier danger from the bottom of the weights may be Palypso de Creek who was a Grade 3 chase winner during his time in France and shaped as if this step back in trip would suit when finishing mid-field in the Becher Chase. He races from 6 lb out of the handicap though and is a bit of a dark horse, so for the winner Im returning to Cloudy Lane. Cloudy Lane 13/2 SJ, 0.75 pt Palypso de Creek 16/1 SJ, 0.25 pt

[bowles10]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases good 2nd there fin, and our vic would just love those conditions, nothing could liver with it even when it made a bad mistake about 5 out dont worry about the winners mate, they will return. i had my 1st winner today for a while :ok

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases cheers bowles. Like you say no shame in losing to our vic, who is a classy horse and no mug.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases Grand National - ante-post The racing tomorrow at Southwell fails to inspire me and with a lack of action on polytrack I've taken the opportunity to scan the ante-post markets again. The Grand National market interests me more than Cheltenham at present as I feel the market is wide open at this point and that it is possible to pick holes in many of the market leaders. Basically, I am looking for an experienced chaser that has proven his class by landing a value prize. One that has proven their well being with a solid recent run and one that is not overburdened in the handicap - open to the possibility of further improvement off their current mark. With that in mind, DREAM ALLIANCE is my suggested bet. Phillip Hobbs has done a terrific job to bring this horse back to his best. He showed great promise as a novice chaser in 2007, landing a £25k chase at Perth over three miles before finising a highly credible second to the mighty Denman upped in trip in the Hennessy later that year. He pulled up in the Welsh National thereafter as his form nosedived, and a serious tendon injury saw him sidelined and off the track for a year and a half. Remarkably, following pioneering stem cell surgery, he has made a return to the track, and having had the benefit of a pipeopener over hurdles at Chepstow in November, he returned to the same track the following month to scoop the Welsh National and underline his staying credentials. It was a fairytale story for his syndicate of owners, based in Wales, and in the aftermath the trainer confirmed that Aintree would be on the agenda. It remains to be seen whether he will be given a prep run as he reportedly goes well fresh but his mark has been adjusted to 151 and if he has fully recovered from his injury problems then he could run a decent race, most probably getting 5 lbs from Mon Mome, assuming Venetia Williams' runner attempts to defend his crown. Dream Alliance 33/1 Bet 365, 0.75 pt win/0.25 pt place (5 places, 1/4 odds).

[diamond1924]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases Have you any opinion on Backstage for the National Wayne? I've had that one in my notebook for some time now, expecting to read about him on Wednesday in the Weekender interview with Gordon Elliot, he won a few last year over 3m+, is a born stayer, is 8yo, should be rated around 140-145 so should be capable of being weighted under 11st with proper placement. Elliot put him away for the winter with a specific intention of getting ready for the Grand National, I'd expect a tune up under 3m, maybe a hurdle in order to preserve the low mark. I have a few quid at 25s