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Fintron's Jumps Thread - 2010/11


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Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases 16:20 Perth, Wednesday 1/7/9. Ngong Hills and Mr Ed showing up on my spreadsheet (with Kells Castle one I've discarded). Might have few quid on each, with the weighting dependent on the prices. Then onto the 16:40 at Worcester but I'll have to start my own thread for that' cos it's only 2m 7f.

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Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases 4.20 Perth A 3m handicap chase here for runners rated 0-130. The ones with winning form around the trip are Iron Man (23f), Brooklyn Breeze (25f), Shannon Springs (24f), Mill Side (24f), Crozan (21f), No Complaint (23f), Mr Ed (24f), All Rise (25f), Marufo (26f), Ngong Hills (25f), Fakima (26f) and Kell's Castle (21f). Iron Man runs off 123 and Peter Bowen's gelding has won off 22 lb higher marks in the past. However, he has pulled up on three of his last four starts (10th on other) and would have to be backed with plenty of hope. Brooklyn Breeze won a hunters chase in February but also has chase handicap wins to his name from four years ago. He was placed in this sphere off 2 lb higher last year so may still be well handicapped, although was another that failed to complete last time out. Shannon Springs won a beginners chase at Worcester last time out on his second chase start. He has won and placed several times over hurdles and should get this trip, the issue with him is whether he has been allocated a fair handicap mark here. He placed off 114 over hurdles, but is rated 8 lbs higher here. Has won RH and on flat tracks. Mill Side was beaten off 1 lb higher at Carlisle on his handicap debut last time out, prior to that he had been running in novices races, with one win to his name. Others may be more likely winners. Crozan finished alongside his stablemate in that same race but a strike rate of 1 win from 25 chases isn't very appealing. His mark has dropped two stone compared to 2007 but he's been beaten off similar sort of marks, including over this sort of trip on his last two runs. No Complaint is only 3 lbs higher than when winning at Market Rasen in July and has been running in stronger chases on recent starts than some of these. He was well beaten at Ascot last time out but was entitled to need the run and may come on for that reappearance. Looks as if he is still open to some more improvement. Mr Ed won over course and distance in June '05 in a novices event and has won a apair of hunters chases since. Was placed at Cartmel off 1 lb higher in handicaps last year although is another returning from a hunters chase here. All Rise has been raised by a monstrous amount (30 lbs) for his last time out win and stepping up in grade that must surely scupper a follow up. Marufo won at Southwell last time out and was tanking along and always looked as if he'd win, even had Bantry Bere fell two out. He has been raised 4 lbs from that day so cannot be discounted, especially since flat tracks bring out the best in him. Sam Thomas ditches him in favour of No Complaint though with Timmy Murphy filling in. Ngong Hills has been in good form this year and is only 6 lbs higher than when winning at Wetherby last time out. He won over course and distance in May and is at home on this sort of ground. He does step up in grade from 0-105 company, but is at least in form. Fakima is 13 lbs higher than his latest chase handicap win and has an absence to overcome. Kells Castle wasn't far behind Ngong Hills over CD recently but was raised 4 lbs even in defeat. He is only 3 lbs higher than his sole win over fences, and probably needed further than he was given last time out. However, he is racing from out of the handicap here and trainer Elliott has to put up a 7 lb claimer to try offset that disadvantage. Suggested Bets No Complaint - 14/1 Hills, 0.4 pt Marufo - 7/1 Hills, 0.15 pt Ngong Hills - 9/2 VC Bet, 0.25 Shannon Springs - 11/2 VC Bet, 0.2

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Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases

16:20 Perth' date=' Wednesday 1/7/9. Ngong Hills and Mr Ed showing up on my spreadsheet (with Kells Castle one I've discarded). Might have few quid on each, with the weighting dependent on the prices. Then onto the 16:40 at Worcester but I'll have to start my own thread for that' cos it's only 2m 7f.[/quote'] Yeah, I like Ngong Hills, have followed him a bit this year. Got him as a saver today because of the rise in class. Good luck.
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Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases Yesterday's race goes down a loser. Marufo was second at 8/1 but well held so no complaints. 3.50 Perth 3m, class 5 chase here. The ones with winning form around the trip are Keltic Lord (24f), South Bronx (24f), Lord Tee (21f), Giuliani (23f), Tower of Lloyd (24f), Now Then Sid (21f), Ballynure (21f) and Silver Dagger (24f). Despite the large field, I don't actually think that is that competitive. Keltic Lord has something to prove off the back of recent efforts. South Bronx won over CD last year off 10 lb higher so is potentially well handicapped here if having a good day. He was well held at Cartmel off 2 lb higher last time out but will appreciate this step up in trip and will have come on for that outing. Lord Tee won off 96 over in Ireland in March but has been held since off this sort of mark. Giuliani is yet to win over fences in 18 starts and although a respectable fifth over CD last time out, may find a few others too strong. Tower of Lloyd won at Down Patrick last month and is only 8 lbs higher now. That represented a career best after several uncompleted runs and perhaps the headgear did the trick. He remains open to improvement and should go well. Now Then Sid has won off 10 lb higher although was held off this mark at Sedgefield, latest. Ballynure is a course winner but has done all of his winning over shorter. He has slipped to a decent mark but others looks more likely to stay. Silver Dagger has won off stones higher in the past but hasn't won for years and races from slightly out of the handicap. PU lto so is passed over. Suggested bets: South Bronx - 13/2 Hills, 0.25 pt Tower of Lloyd - 7/1 Sporting Bet, 0.75 pt

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  • 4 weeks later...

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases This has taken a back seat whilst the flat has been in full throw but I fancied getting stuck into the 6.50 at Uttoxeter tonight as I like the track. 6.50 Uttoxeter 13 runners now line up. The ones with winning form around the trip are Changing Lanes (22f), Lease Back (24f), Tarsus (24f), Tully Cross (25f), Paradise Expected (22f), Classic Rock (23f), Ballinruane (24f), Classic Clover (25f) and Silver Dagger (24f). Changing Lanes was placed off this mark on his handicap chase debut last time out. He ran over CD here in a novices chase in june but his jumping wasnt fluent. He is unexposed in this sphere though and open to improvement. Lease Back won here over hurdles over this trip in 2007. He's never won in handicap chases though. Tarsus won off 86 at Chepstow in April and followed up at Bangor next time out off 91. He is 6 lb here but the jockeys claim helps. Acts on left handed galloping tracks such as this and a distance winner. Tully Cross hasnt had much racing of late and pulled up when last seen. Paradise Expected is an unexposed chaser (4 starts over fences). Has won here over shorter off 8 lb lower but Richard Johnson is booked and could go well. Classic Rock acts here and is well handicapped on his old form. Hasnt been out much lately though. Ballinruane won over CD last July but is 13 lbs higher and makes seasonal debut. Classic Clover well handicapped on best form, may want further. Silver Dagger has been out of form this season and races out of handicap. Suggested bet: Tarsus 10/1 Bet 365, 0.7 pt Paradie Expected 13/2 Blue Sq, 0.15 pt Changing Lanes 13/2 Blue Squ, 0.15 pt

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Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases tarsus was nowhere so disappointed about that, but the saver did its job and prevents a loser. Gonna try give this thread a bit more attention when i can but i doubt there will be much to play on until the winter jumps kicks into full flow so the bets are likely to be in drips and drabs for a while yet.

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Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases A night off from the flat gives an opportunity to have a tilt at this 3 mile handicap chase at Perth tonight. 8.45 Perth Seven are declared. The ones with winning form around the trip are Corkage (22f), Some Craic (25f), Craiglands (21f), Nudge And Nurdle (24f) and Ngong Hills (24f). Corkage dons the cheekpieces he had fitted when scoring at the track over 2m 5f last time out. That was his chase debut and in that novices event he jumped well and stayed on strongly to win. He makes his handicap debut here. Over hurdles he was a winner off 119, and he is now rated 11 lbs higher in this sphere, but he comfortably beat a 133-rated rival in that novices race and he could go well, although may have preferred firmer. Some Craic has a fair strike rate (3-13) over fences, the latest coming at Listowel last June off 19 lb lower. However, he has been knocking on the door in recent runs off marks 6 lb and 5 lb lower, including here in May. He evidently acts here, sees out the trip, but may possibly prefer the ground on top and others may be suited by the slower ground tonight. Craiglands is 2-2 in chases, both in hunters chasers, and Jim Goldie's gelding now makes the transition into handicaps. He is an unexposed chaser and at 7 is open to plenty more improvement. However, this right handed flat track is a different proposition to the undulating, stiff right handed test of Cheltenham and the undulations of Sedgefield, whilst he must also prove he acts on softish ground. Nudge And Nurdle is the mount of Paddy Brennan and the Nigel Twiston-Davies-trained gelding is a course and distance winner, having won here last April in a novices chase. Both of his chase wins have come in non-handicaps which is a slight concern, but his ability to act on soft ground may prove vital here. He was running in some competitive handicaps last term so his lack of handicap success may be due, in part, to the level of races he has contested. That said, at times his jumping has proven a problem, and he does have a little to prove off the back of recent efforts, but the trainer does well here and the horse warrants respect. Ngong Hills won over course and distance here in May and then followed up at Wetherby next time out off a 5 lb higher mark. He is only 4 lbs higher now, so is handicapped to have every chance, but double negatives against him are that his wins have come on faster ground and he was disappointing when pulling up over course and distance here 27-days ago. Suggested bet: Nudge And Nurdle 7/1 Hills, 1 pt win

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  • 2 weeks later...

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases Nudge And Nurdle did nothing in the last race. 8.00 Kilbeggan Tower of Lloyd is one I remember from his trip to Perth earlier this season and he is a decent enough chaser for the grade. He had a couple of years off the track before returning in April this year and although his first two runs were questionable efforts (fell and pulled up) he bounced back at Down Patrick when beating Kell's Castle, amongst others, in a handicap chase off 74. He runs off 79 today so is handicapped to have a chance, and last time out was a respectable fourth at Perth. After a 5 lb drop in the weights I think he can go well, and he is likely to appreciate this ground more than some of his rivals which may prefer softer. 15/2 VC Bet, 1 pt win.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases 3.30 Newton Abbot Classic Clover - second behind improving sort ( who has franked form since) over course and distance last time out. Experienced chaser and superbly handicapped on best form - won off 92 prev, rated 77 tomorrow. 4/1 Bet 365, 1 pt win

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Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases Any ideas for the 16:25 at Ffos Las on Friday Fintron? Bit of a bogey with Snoopy Loopy skewing the weights. How about Church Island to lead for most of it and maybe hang on for a place? Out the Black and Fire and Rain might go well too.

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Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases

Any ideas for the 16:25 at Ffos Las on Friday Fintron? Bit of a bogey with Snoopy Loopy skewing the weights. How about Church Island to lead for most of it and maybe hang on for a place? Out the Black and Fire and Rain might go well too.
Alright Trev, I haven't looked at any NH racing for tomorrow as of yet, as I have spent a few hours getting stuck into the St Leger. I've neglected this thread in recent months as the flat has taken preference, but will hopefully get time on my dinner tomorrow to have a stab at this as eyeballing the runners it looks a classy race doesn't it. Good luck :hope
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  • 4 weeks later...

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases 4.30 Plumpton Changing Lanes won here in July over three miles but is well worth a try over this trip off a 5 lb higher mark. Has still only jumped fences five times and is open to further improvement. Shammy Buskins broke his maiden last time out at Stratford, which could see him in a better light now he's discovered how to win, although this is a different type of track so he is my saver only. Particle was given a break from chasing but has been revived over hurdles in the past year and given a previous bit of form at Newcastle when outpaced over shorter I give him a chance here. His jumping will have to have improved and he is a bit of a punt compared to the other two, so he too is also a saver. Changing Lanes 4/1 Bet 365, 0.5 pt win Shammy Buskins 5/2 Boyle, 0.4 pt win (saver) Particle 10/1 Bet 365, 0.1 pt win (saver)

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Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases Just to bring this up to date after the result at Plumpton yesterday. The tricast was managed (although wasn't played) but unfortunately for me my main bet, Changing Lanes, wasnt the one crossing the line first. I made a tiny bit of profit on the race through the saver.

Bet

Date

Course

Selection

Advised

SP

Position

Profit

59.

1/7/09

Perth

No Complaint

14/1 Hills, 0.4

16/1

5/13

-1

Marufo

7/1 Hills, 0.15

8/1

2/13

Ngong Hills

9/2 VC, 0.25

4/1

PU

ShannonSprings

11/2 VC, 0.2

6/1

PU

60.

2/7/09

Perth

South Bronx

13/2 Hills, 0.25

15/2

3/14

-1

Tower of Lloyd

7/1 Spo, 0.75

6/1

4/14

61.

27/7/09

Uttoxeter

Tarsus

10/1 Bet365, 0.7

9/1

PU

+0.13

Paradise Expected

13/2 BlueSq, 0.15

6/1

PU

Changing Lanes

13/2 Blue Sq, 0.15

6/1

1/13

62.

28/7/09

Perth

Nudge And Nurdle

7/1 Hills, 1 pt

9/2

R

-1

63.

8/8/09

Kilbeggan

Tower of Lloyd

15/2 VC Bet, 1 pt

8/1

13/14

-1

64.

23/8/09

Newton Abbot

Classic Clover

4/1 Bet 365, 1 pt

7/2

3/11

-1

65.

28/8/09

Ffos Las

Backstage

11/1 SJ, 0.5 pt EW

15/2

1/17

+6.88

66.

20/9/09

Plumpton

Changing Lanes

4/1 Bet365, 0.5

13/2

3/10

+0.4

Shammy Buskins

5/2 Boyle, 0.4

9/4

1/10

Particle

10/1 Bet 365, 0.1

8/1

2/10

Overall Thread Stats

Number of bets: 66

Total Pts Staked: 65.95

Profit: 14.62

ROI: +22%

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Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases 4.45 Perth This looks a superb chase and it is possible to make a claim for a good number of these. Silver Sedge is only 3 lbs higher than his last win but may prefer a different type of track to this. Reel Charmer is another to which similar comments apply. Or de Grugy returns from a break and hails from a yard out of form but he will stay this far, is a course winner, and only 3 lbs higher than his last win. Sue Smith's Nirvana Swing is capable on his day but may need some help from the handicapper and of more interest is Catch the Perk, who has been knocking on the door and losing by the tinest of margins. With a decent claiming jockey booked he is entitled to improve, he stays this far and is a course winner for Lucinda Russell. All Rise has been hit hard for his win on his penultimate start and Lucky Nellerie may be outpaced over a 3m trip so Coldwells is of more interest. He's only had seven chase runs, won with some authority at Catterick and is handicapped to have a chance off 7 lbs higher. He pulled up when last seen at Kelso though so is nominated as little more than a saver. Seize won over this trip at Musselburgh but has been beaten off this revised mark since so is ignored for the time being, which leaves only a few left including the market prinicipals. Kell's Castle is very appealing with the champion booked. Trainer Gordon Elliott does well here and his gelding was beaten narrowly off 4 lb lower when last seen. However, he is more exposed than some of these and the price offputs me slightly. Flemish Invader is sent north by Nigel Twiston-Davies and could be anything on his chase debut. He has a progressive profile over hurdles where he has won 2-7 and this step up in trip should suit. However, the price doesn't fully reflect his inexperience in this sphere IMO and I will pass over. Or De Grugy 40/1 Sporting Bet, 0.15 pt Catch the Perk 14/1 VC Bet, 0.75 pts Coldwells 16/1 Bet 365, 0.1 pt

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  • 2 weeks later...

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases Kells Castle won the last race (so no profit) if i remember correctly...its been a while! 4.00 Hexham Wizards Dust - trainer won race last year but returns from long break here. Has won off higher but no win this season. Seek The Truth - sole win came over shorter and off 6 lb lower. Another without a win this season but credible placings at Newcastle and Perth off 79 and 83 recently and only 2 lbs higher on 85 here. Sycho Fred - won a novices h'cap chase off 6 lb lower last season over shorter. Recent efforts poor but O'Regan an eyecatching booking. Dad's Army - CD winner of novices chase last season but pulled up on last two runs. Open to improvement but weak in market. Doris' Gift - course winner over hurdles track over three miles last season. Yet to win over fences and pulled up last time out over fences so needs to bounce back Seek The Truth 11/1 VC Bet, 0.8 pt Sycho Fred 14/1 SJ, 0.1 pt saver Wizards Dust 11/1 Hills, 0.1 pt saver

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Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases 5.25 Uttoxeter Sarahs Gift - hails from a yard in terrific form in recent months and having looked once pace on the run in at Market Rasen last time, should appreciate the step up to three miles here. He runs his best races on quick ground and was beaten by under a length off this mark last time out to suggest this mark is within his reach. 9/4 Sporting Bet, 1 pt win.

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Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases 4.35 Wincanton A few familiar faces line up in here in this small field of six and several of them have cropped up in here at some point. Fourpointone may be in the grips of the handicapper for now and Classic Clover looks short enough. Despite being handicapped very attractively on his old form, he does find winning hard, and with that in mind, Lavenoak Lad is my pick. He showed he has the stamina reserves for this trip when landing a race at Fontwell in May and showed at the same time that he does not depend on slow ground to do his winning. He is 6 lbs higher than when winning at Worcester last time out which shows he retains the ability to win, and 6/1 seems big. 6/1 Stan James, 0.5 pt EW (2 places, 1/4 odds).

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Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases Lavenoak Lad was a non-runner with the last bet. 5.05 Ffos Las Foirpointone may need some help from the handicapper and All sonsilver hasn't won for two years and seems to be regressing. Scholar King is yet to prove he makes an effective chaser and even completing would mark progress for him today, which leaves a shortlist of three. Particle hasn't yet won a chase but after only six tries further improvement could be forthcoming. He stayed on well behind an inform Shammy Buskins last time out and on that basis is entitled to be involved here. Illogical Hope unseated on his chase debut at Bangor in February but seems to be learning the game now, improving with every start and landing a chase at Hereford when upped in trip to beyond 3 miles for the first time in April. An 8 lb rise means more is needed but he seems to be going the right way now. Kavi won over shorter at Worcester last time out but shaped as if this trip would suit. He's up 7 lbs but is relatively unexposed over fences and having been given a break from chasing, returned with bang last time and could be ready to win again. Illogical Hope 10/3 Boylesports, 0.45 pt Particle (saver) 11/4 Bet 365, 0.25 pt Kavi (saver) 4/1 Stan James, 0.2 pt

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